india maize summit 2015 - session 5 - mr. nalin rawal, skymet weather services pvt. ltd., on...
TRANSCRIPT
India Maize Summit 2015Improving Quality and Production: Technology and other inputs
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Mr. Nalin Rawal Chief Business Head-Agri Business Solutions
Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.
MAJOR CHALLENGES
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Production
Weather Risk during Maize seed / crop production ??
Monitoring & Control of Seed Production in vast geographies - High cost??
Real time production advisories – challenge??
Multi locational research field trials - limited control of breeder ??
Seed production farmer integrity ??
Often compensation is required to be paid to the farmers
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Marketing
Market Size - Acreages & Gross seed potential estimation
Germination risk in farmer’s field
Agro advisory onus of seed company- Complete POP required but little control over use
of other agri inputs
Monitoring of large scale farmer field demonstrations for new varieties
Demand Estimation & Availability- Right variety, Right Place at Right price
MAJOR CHALLENGES
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Procurement / Trading
Exact Knowledge on acreage trends – crop shift, variety shift etc.
Weather challenges during production cycle – leading to productivity variations
Production estimates
Quality of produce
Forward trading – unpredictability in production
Where to buy from ? Warehousing ? Logistics ?
Hedging trade risk linked to production
MAJOR CHALLENGES
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2700+ AWS Locations
15 States
Head Office: Noida
Regional Office(S) : 4 (Patna, Jaipur, Mumbai & Hyderabad)
LONG RANGE MONSOON FORECASTS
Monsoon forecasts at district level – JJAS
2012 2013 2014
Skymet Forecast 95% of LPA 103% of LPA 91% of LPA
Actual Monsoon 93% of LPA 105% of LPA 88% of LPA
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
Monthly rainfall forecasts updated fortnightly
Monthly temperature forecasts – trends
SHORT RANGE FORECAST
Seven days forecast updated on daily basis
Live hourly data of weather conditions
CROP ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2014)
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1st week of July
Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July
Crop Sowing
Status end of Season
UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV)
Completely automatic & remote controlled
Ability to reach maximum of 400m from ground
Captures 1.4 Km x 1.4 Km image (ground coverage)
Horizontal coverage in one flight 4Km radius
Continuously captures video
Continuously sends images at every 5 sec
Provides Geo referenced images
FINAL CROP ESTIMATE – CROP CUTTING EXPERIMENTS
Skymet provides Acreage & Final yield estimation
(95% accuracy)
Current Weather & Forecast
Actual ConditionTemp-43 0 C ; RH-20%
No Rain / Moisture stress
Crop Advisory
1) Drain water from nursery and fill fresh water on daily basis
2) Delay Transplanting by -7 days
GIS image
Paddy (Pusa Basmati 1121)
Real Time Crop Advisory
Farmers RetailersDealers
Sales EmployeeMarketing personDistribution person Seed Production
BROWN PLANT HOPPER – PADDY
Brown Plant Hopper (BPH)
BPH Life Cycle
Eggs Hatchability highest at 25°CBPH Population Max 28-30°CRH >70High Nitrogen levels
Paddy
Crop stage information
CUSTOMISED CROP RISK MANAGEMENT
Drawbacks:
• Inadequate product
• Cryptic payout calculations
• Opaque payouts
• Mistrust on insurance
Benefits:
• Customized product
• Transparent payout calculations
• Equitable payouts
• Trust build-up on insurance
EXISTING PROPOSED
WEATHER BASED CROP INSURANCE
Particular Features
Customized Crop Insurance
Weather based customized crop insurance products
Transparent payout calculations
Access to live weather data
Equitable payout
Weather Derivative Based Crop Insurance
Companies having direct interest in agriculture
Companies pay out premium and payouts are paid directly to company
Commodity trading companies involved in contract farming or building relations with farmers
Seed companies – seed production programs
PRODUCT CUSTOMIZATION – MAIZE
Earlier Product Modified ProductCrop: MAIZE JALGAON Unit: HECTARE
PERIOD 1-Jun to 30-Jun 1-Jul to 31-Jul 1-Aug to 31-Aug
INDEX
STRIKE I (<) (in mm) 60 110 90
STRIKE 2 (<) (in mm) 20 40 30
EXIT (in mm) 10 30 10
RATE1 (Rs./ mm) 2.5 1.428571 1.666666667
RATE 2 (Rs./ mm) 25 30 12.5
MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs.) 350 400 350
TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1100
PERIOD 15-Jul to 31-Aug
INDEX
STRIKE (=>) 20 25 30 35 40
PAYOUT (Rs.) 200 300 500 800 1000
TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1000
PERIOD 6-Jul to 30-Jul 31-Jul to 31-Aug 1-Sep to 30-Sep
INDEX Maximum of 3
STRIKE (>) (in mm) 250 mm 350 mm 260 mm
EXIT (in mm) 350 mm 450 mm 360 mm
RATE (Rs/mm) 3.00 3.00 3.00
MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs) 300 300 300
TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 900
SUM INSURED (Rs.) 3000
PREMIUM (Rs./ ha.) 178
Premium (Rs./ ha.) (incl service tax) 200
EXCESS RAINFALL
(Single Payout)
consecutive days cumulative rainfall above strike during course
DEFICIT RAINFALL
RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION
(Multiple Payouts)
Number of days in a spell of Consecutive dry days with
<2.5 mm of rainfall
PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III
District
PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III
RAINFALL VOLUME
Aggregate of rainfall below the strike during respective phases.
Crop: MAIZE Jalgaon Unit:
PERIOD 1-Jun to 30-Jun 1-Jul to 31-Jul 1-Aug to 31-Aug
INDEX
STRIKE I (<) (in mm) 70 120 100
STRIKE 2 (<) (in mm) 30 50 40
EXIT (in mm) 20 40 20
RATE1 (Rs./ mm) 2.5 1.428571429 1.666666667
RATE 2 (Rs./ mm) 25 30 12.5
MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs.) 350 400 350
TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1100
PERIOD 15-Jul to 31-Aug
INDEX
STRIKE (=>) 12 15 18 20 22
PAYOUT (Rs.) 200 300 500 800 1000
TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 1000
PERIOD 6-Jul to 30-Jul 31-Jul to 31-Aug 1-Sep to 30-Sep
INDEX Maximum of 3
STRIKE (>) (in mm) 150 mm 250 mm 160 mm
EXIT (in mm) 250 mm 350 mm 260 mm
RATE (Rs/mm) 3.00 3.00 3.00
MAXIMUM PAYOUT (Rs) 300 300 300
TOTAL PAYOUT (Rs.) 900
SUM INSURED (Rs.) 3000
PREMIUM (Rs./ ha.) 150
Premium (Rs./ ha.) (incl service tax) 169
RAINFALL
VOLUME
Aggregate of rainfall below the strike during respective phases.
DEFICIT
RAINFALL
District HECTARE
PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III
EXCESS
RAINFALL
(Single Payout)
consecutive days cumulative rainfall above strike
RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION
(Multiple Payouts)
Number of days in a spell of Consecutive dry days
with <2.5 mm of rainfall
PHASE - I PHASE - II PHASE - III
POINTERS
Hedging weather risk – Long, Medium & Short range forecast
Accurate information on Increase / decrease of crop acreage
Crop Monitoring - Better market intelligence on crop condition
Production estimates – based on crop monitoring & CCE
Realistic crop advisories to the farmers based on different crop stages and
weather conditions
Maize Crop Risk Hedging – Insurance for farmers & Companies
Thank You
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Contact: Mr. Nalin [email protected] Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.Plot No. 10 & 11, Sector 125 Noida
+91-9811-714-741