INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

(MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES)

SOUTHWEST MONSOON- 2016

END OF SEASON REPORT

For the State of

PUNJAB

Main Highlights

Monsoon advanced in Punjab on 2nd

July 2016 near normal onset time .

Earliest onset so far in Punjab is 13th

June 2008 and latest is 27th

July 1987.

Punjab State received 351.9 mm of rainfall (June-September) against its

average of 491.5 for Monsoon 2016 with overall deficit of 29% making it

consecutive deficit monsoon year for third year in row which observed for

first time since its record since 1901.

Monsoon 2016 forecast for Northwest India was within the forecasted

range and slightly below normal for Punjab state.

Rainfall in Punjab was deficient for consecutive third year (rainfall less than

75% of LPA) since 1901 . Lowest rainfall in Punjab since 1901 was in year

1987 when overall deficit was 67%.

Rainfall in the month of June ,July August & September was 116, 75.5

,116 % of LPA and was 19% of LPA in September 2016.

Out of 20 district wherein rainfall was reported during Monsoon, 2016, only

six district(30%) received normal to excess rainfall , deficient in 11 district

and scanty in three district with Ferozpur having highest deficit of 70%.

Out of 56 Tehsil in Punjab for which data were reported only 6 Tehsil

received normal to excess rainfall whereas as 53 tehsil were in deficient to

Scanty

Monsoon rainfall (June – September) was 97% of LPA for country as a

whole and 95% of LPA for NW India and was accurate as predicted by

IMD.

No significant damage reported to cotton crop in Malwa Region of Punjab

due incidences of White fly due to timely measures by state govt.

Monsoon withdrew from some parts in Punjab on 5th

October and on 8thth

October from remaining parts of the state.

1. Onset and advance of Monsoon 2016 in Punjab

Monsoon advanced in Punjab on 2nd

July just three days after its normal onset date

and covered entire state on 3rd

July 2016. After hitting the Kerala coast on 8 June,

a week later than usual, the monsoon has advanced steadily into the rest of the

southern states, and cover the entire country in time despite its delayed

arrival. After onset good spell of rainfall received in Punjab in the month

of July and August however spatial distribution was not uniform in

some district of Punjab.

Monsoon 2016 Advancement

2. Rainfall distribution in Punjab.

Punjab State received 351.4 mm of rainfall against its average of 491.5 mm with

overall deficit of 29% during monsoon 2016. Daily times series of rainfall from

(June to September during monsoon 2016 for the state of Punjab is shown in fig 1.

As evident from the fig. rainfall was slightly below normal in first week, near

normal in the beginning of second week and were normal/above normal in third

and fourth week with couple of heavy spell in second and third week. In July

rainfall was below normal till second week of July and picked up in the second

and third week with couple of active wet spells in these weeks. In August

rainfall was below normal for first few days and started picking up from second

week with couple of heavy spells around 12th and 21

st of August and were below

normal till end of August. Monsoon further remained in weak phase for most

part of September except for three days in first second and third week of the

month.

Fig. 1

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

0

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20

30

40

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1-S

ep

5-S

ep

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13

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17

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21

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25

-Sep

29

-Sep

% D

EP

AR

TU

RE

RA

INF

AL

L (

in m

m)

DATE

DAILY TIME SERIES OF MONSOON RAINFALL CHANDIGARH (JUNE - SEPTEMBER) - 2016

ACTUAL NORMAL % DEPARTURE

District wise rainfall status:

Out of 20 district for which rainfall was reported in Punjab during monsoon 2016

only wherein rainfall was reported only six district received normal to excess

rainfall ,11 district were deficit and 03 were scanty .District Ferozpur having

highest deficit of 70% followed by district Patiala and Fatehgarh Sahib

respectively. Percentage departure of district wise rainfall from normal is shown in

fig below.

Monsoon 2016 rainfall

Region Actual Rainfall

(mm)

Long Period

Average (mm) % of LPA

All India 862.0 887.5 97%

NW India 584.2 615.0 94%

Punjab 351.4 491.5 69%

Tehsil wise rainfall distribution in Punjab monsoon 2016

DISTRICTS NORMAL EXCESS DEFICIT SCANTY TOTAL

AMRITSAR 0 0 1 2 3

BARNALA 0 0 0 1 1

BHATINDA 0 0 2 1 3

FARIDKOT 0 0 1 0 1

FATEHGARH SAHIB 0 0 0 2 2

FEROZEPUR 0 0 1 4 5

MUKTSAR 0 0 1 1 2

GURDASPUR 1 0 2 0 3

NAWANSHAHAR 0 0 1 1 2

SANGUR 0 0 4 0 4

ROPAR 1 0 2 1 4

PATIALA 0 0 0 4 4

HOSHIARPUR 0 0 1 3 4

LUDHIANA 0 0 1 4 5

JALLANDHAR 0 0 1 3 4

KAPURTHALA 0 1 0 2 3

MANSA 0 0 0 1 1

MOGA 0 0 1 0 1

MOHALI 0 0 1 1 2

TARAN TARAN 0 0 0 2 2

Total 2 1 20 33 56

% 4 2 36 59 100

Out of 56 tehsil for which data is available 20 tehsil received deficit, 33

scanty whereas only 3 tehsil received normal to excess rainfall during

monsoon season as shown in Table below indicating Normal, Excess,

Deficit and Scanty rainfall.

4. Monthly rainfall distribution

Monthly rainfall distribution for the month of June, July August and September and

for first & second half of monsoon 2016 for Punjab is shown below.

Months Actual

(mm)

Normal

(mm) % of LPA

June 51.8 44.5 116

July 140.3 185.9 75.4

August 142.5 170.3 83.6

September 16.9 90.8 19

June – July (1st Half) 192.1 230.4 83.3

August – September (2nd

Half) 159 261.1 60

Fig. indicating numbers of district with excess, deficit, scanty and no rainfall

for month of June, July, August and September, first half & for second half of

Monsoon 2016 in Punjab.

MONTHS EXCESS NORMAL DEFICIENT SCANTY NO RAIN

June 7 5 6 2 0

July 1 10 7 2 0

August 4 5 11 0 0

September 0 1 2 11 6

June-July

(First Half) 3 8 7 2 0

August-

September

(Second half)

1 4 9 6 0

Season 1 6 11 2 0

JUNE JULY

AUGUST SEPTEMBER

Monthly district wise rainfall departure of rainfall from normal,

June-July (First Half) & August-September (Second half) is given

below in the table.

Main features of monthly rainfall during monsoon 2016 Punjab

June

In June 2016 Punjab state received 51.8 mm of rainfall against 44.5 mm of

long period average which is 119 of LPA.

Highest rainfall in Punjab during last 114 (1901–2016) is 203.3 mm in 2008

which was 452 % of LPA followed by year 1996 and 1986 with rainfall of

158 mm and 151 mm respectively.

The rainfall during June 2016 was normal with couple of heavy spell in

second and third week of June.

July

State received 140.3 mm of rainfall in July 2016 against its normal rainfall of

185.9 mm which is 76% of LPA.

First half Second half

Highest rainfall in Punjab in July month during (1901–2016) was in year 1988

with rainfall of 455.1 mm against its LPA of 190.5 mm followed by 1980 and

1993 with rainfall of 443.8 mm and 413.9 mm respectively.

Lowest rainfall in July during (1901-2016) was in 1911 with rainfall of 25.0

mm against 158.4 mm with deficit of 84% followed by years 1987 and 1964

with rainfall of 31.8 mm and 35.4 mm respectively.

During the last decade lowest rainfall was in year 2012 followed by year 2014

with rainfall of 67.7 mm and 76.0 mm respectively with overall deficit of

63.7% and 59.1% respectively.

State received couple of heavy to heavy spells of rainfall in second and

beginning of 3rd

week of July.

August

Punjab received 142.5 mm of rainfall against its normal of 170.3 mm and was

83.6% of LPA.

Highest rainfall in August during (1901–2016) was in 1908 with rainfall of

402.7 mm against 152.9 mm followed by year 1976 and 1933 with rainfall of

357 mm and 326 mm respectively.

Lowest rainfall during (1901-2016) was in 1993 with rainfall of 24.3 mm

against it normal of 169.6 mm followed by year 1937 and 2014 with rainfall

of 27.0 mm and 41.9 mm with overall deficit of 82.1 and 75.4% respectively.

September

State received 16.9 mm of rainfall against it normal which was 19 % of LPA.

During the last decade rainfall was highest in the year 2014 followed by year

2011 wherein state received 12.6% excess rainfall from normal.

State experienced couple of very heavy rainfall (More than 12cm) in

September 2015 is shown in Table 1.

Daily time series of rainfall in Punjab during September 2016.

Weekly rainfall departure

Weekly rainfall for monsoon 2016 in Punjab remained by and large below normal for

most part of entire monsoon season except for fourth week of June and third week of

July and last week of September where it was above normal. Daily time series of

weekly monsoon rainfall (June – September) is shown in fig below.

Withdrawal of Monsoon

In view of dry weather conditions and decreased moisture contents as seen from

water vapour imageries over Northwest region and also change in the lower

level tropospheric circulation pattern over the region from cyclonic to

anticyclonic conditions became favourable for withdrawal of monsoon over the

region around 29th of September . Subsequently monsoon withdrew from some

parts of Punjab, Haryana and on 5th of October. . It further withdrew from

remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana including Chandigarh on 8th of October 2016.

Withdrawal of monsoon 2016 is shown in fig given below.

Broad Synoptic features: Most prevalent feature of monsoon 2016 was

intrusion of mid latitudes westerly with the monsoon winds. During monsoon

2016 around 28 western disturbances which were seen as trough /system in

upper tropospheric westerly, induced upper air cyclonic circulation in lower

troposphere’s traversed east/north-eastwards across western Himalayan region

during monsoon 2016 with highest frequency in the month of July 2016. There

were two low pressure systems and one deep depression which recurved north-

eastward after reaching North Madhya Pradesh and adjoining SE Uttar Pradesh

and interacted with mid latitudes westerlies to give heavy to extremely heavy

rainfall in Punjab and Haryana in the month of July 6.Position of monsoon

trough remain near its normal position for most parts of July and August

however it was close to foothill for most part of September. Overall rainfall

distribution in Punjab on spatial and temporal scale was good for monsoon

2015 except for month of September. Monthwise details of main synoptic

weather systems their location, residency period and dissipation for the

monsoon season 2016 is given below.

Main synoptic System:

NAME OF THE MONTH : JUNE 2016

(A) WESTERN DISTRUBANCES

S.

NO. SYSTEM DURATION

PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 As an upper

air trough 1

st TO 7

th

Long. 50°E

and north of

Lat. 30° N

North easterly

Western

Himalayan

region

2 As an upper

air trough 8

th TO 15

th

Long. 55°E

and north of

Lat. 30° N

East north

easterly

Western

Himalayan

region

3 As an upper

air trough 14

st TO 20

th

Long. 60°E

and north of

Lat. 35° N

North easterly

Western

Himalayan

region

4 As an upper

air trough 22

nd TO 24

th

Long. 62°E

and north of

Lat. 35° N

North easterly

Western

Himalayan

region

5 As an upper

air trough 27

th TO 01

st

Long. 62°E

and north of

Lat. 30° N

East north

easterly

Western

Himalayan

region

6 As an upper

air trough 30

th TO 7

th

Long. 60°E

and north of

Lat. 30° N

East north

easterly

Western

Himalayan

region

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

S.NO. SYSTEM DURATION PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 Lower

Levels 14

th TO 16

th

North Haryana

and West Uttar

Pradesh and

Uttrakhand

Persisted

North Haryana

and West Uttar

Pradesh and

Uttrakhand

2 Lower

Levels 16

th TO 19

th

Punjab and

adjoining

North West-

Rajasthan

North Easterly

Haryana and

adjoining

North

Rajasthan

3 Lower

Levels 23

rd TO 25

th

Punjab and

neighbourhood North Easterly

West Uttar

Pradesh and

neighbourhood

NAME OF THE MONTH : JULY 2016

(A) ) WESTERN DISTRUBANCES

S.

NO. SYSTEM DURATION

PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 As an upper

air cycir 6

th TO 9

th

North Pakistan &

neighbourhood

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

2 As an upper

air cycir 9

th TO 11

th

North Pakistan &

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

3 As an upper

air trough 11

th TO 14

th

Long. 65°E and

north of Lat.30°N

East north

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

4 As an upper

air trough 14

th TO 19

th

Long. 64°E and

north of Lat.32°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

5 As an upper

air trough 18

th TO 20

th

Long. 64°E and

north of Lat.30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

6 As an upper

air trough 22

nd TO 24

th

Long. 70°E and

north of Lat.30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

7 As an upper

air cycir 25

th TO 28

th

North Pakistan

and

neighbourhood

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

8 As an upper

air cycir 28

th TO 31

st

North Pakistan &

neighbourhood

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

9 As an upper

air trough 31

st TO 03

rd

Long. 65°E and

north of Lat.30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

S.NO. SYSTEM DURATION PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 Lower

Levels 18

th TO 19

th

West Uttar

Pradesh and

neighbourhood

Persisted

West Uttar

Pradesh and

neighbourhood

2 Lower

Levels 22

nd TO 23

rd

Punjab and

neighbourhood Persisted

Punjab and

neighbourhood

3 Lower

Levels 25

th TO 26

th

West Madhya

Pradesh and

adjoining East

Rajasthan

Persisted

West Madhya

Pradesh and

adjoining East

Rajasthan

4 Lower

Levels 27

th TO 30

th

East Rajasthan

and adjoining

North West

Madhya Pradesh

Persisted

Merged with cycir

over Haryana and

adjoining North

Rajasthan

5 Lower

Levels 29

th TO 06

th

Haryana and

neighbourhood Persisted

Merged with Low

Pressure area over

South Pakistan

and adjoining

southwest

Rajasthan

NAME OF THE MONTH : AUGUST 2016

(A) ) WESTERN DISTRUBANCES

S.

NO. SYSTEM DURATION

PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 As an upper

air trough 3

rd TO 9

th

Long. 62°E and

north of Lat. 30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

2 As an upper

air cycir 9

th TO 14

th

North Pakistan &

neighbourhood

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

3 As an upper

air trough 14

th TO 20

th

Long. 61°E and

north of Lat. 30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

4 As an upper

air trough 20

th TO 25

th

Long. 64°E and

north of Lat. 28°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

5 As an upper

air trough 24

th TO 29

th

Long. 63°E and

north of Lat. 30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

6 As an upper

air trough 29

th TO 04

th

Long. 64°E and

north of Lat. 30°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

S.NO. SYSTEM DURATION PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 Lower Levels 11th

TO 12th

East-Rajasthan &

Neighbourhood Persisted

East-Rajasthan &

Neighbourhood

2 Lower Levels 17th

TO 18th

West Uttar

Pradesh &

Neighbourhood

Persisted

West Uttar

Pradesh &

Neighbourhood

3 Lower Levels 26th

TO 29th

South Rajasthan

and adjoining

West Madhya

Pradesh & Gujrat

Region

South easterly

Kutch and

adjoining South

Pakistan

4 Lower Levels 29th

TO 03rd

West-Rajasthan

& Neighbourhood

North

easterly

Punjab and

Neighbourhood

5 Lower Levels 29th

TO 30th

West Uttar

Pradesh &

Neighbourhood

Persisted

Merged with cycir

over Haryana and

Neighbourhood

(C) LOW PRESSURE AREA

SYSTEM DURATION PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

Low Pressure

Area 6

th TO 9

th

South Pakistan and

adjoining South west

Rajasthan

South Westerly South Pakistan and

Neighbourhood

Low Pressure

Area 8

th TO 10

th

North West Madhya

Pradesh and

Neighbourhood

North Westerly North Rajasthan and

neighbourhood

Deep

Depression 20

th TO 24

th

North West Madhya

Pradesh and

Neighbourhood

South Westerly South Rajasthan and

Neighbourhood

NAME OF THE MONTH : SEPTEMBER 2016

(A) ) WESTERN DISTRUBANCES

S.

NO. SYSTEM DURATION

PLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1 As an upper

air cycir 6

th TO 8

th

North Pakistan &

adjoining

Afghanistan

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

2 As an upper

air cycir 11

th TO 14

th

North Pakistan &

neighbourhood

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

3 As an upper

air trough 15

th TO 18

th

Long. 64°E and

north of Lat. 25°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

4 As an upper

air trough 19

th TO 24

th

Long. 55°E and

north of Lat. 32°N

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

5 As an upper

air cycir 24

th TO 27

th

North Pakistan &

neighbourhood

North

easterly

Western

Himalayan region

District wise heavy to very heavy rainfall events 2016 in Punjab

Date Heavy Rainfall observed(in cms) Forecast issued

regarding heavy rainfall

MONTH: JUNE 2016

28.06.2016 Nawanshahr (distt. Nawanshahar) 17, Balachaur

(distt. Nawanshahar) 7 and Ludhiana (distt.

Ludhiana) 7.

No heavy rainfall warning issued

MONTH: JULY 2016

02.07.2016 Barnala (distt. Barnala) 10, Jalandhar AWS (distt.

Jalandhar) 9, Sangrur (distt. Sangrur) 8 and

Ludhiana (distt. Ludhiana) 7.

Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Punjab and Haryana

04.07.2016 Phangota (distt. Gurdaspur) 7 and Ranjit Sagar Dam

Site (distt. Gurdaspur) 7. No heavy rainfall warning issued

10.07.2016 Mahurana ARG (distt. Kapurthala) 7. No heavy rainfall waning issued

17.07.2016 Ranjit Sagar Dam Site (distt. Gurdaspur) 7. Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Punjab and Haryana

22.07.2016 Anandpur Sahib (distt. Ropar) 7. No heavy rainfall warning issued

27.07.2016

Madhopur (distt. Gurdaspur) 19, Ranjit Sagar Dam

Site (distt. Gurdaspur) 15, Shahpur Kandi (distt.

Gurdaspur) 15, Malakpur (distt. Gurdaspur) 12,

Mahurana ARG (distt. Kapurthala) 11, Phangota

(distt. Gurdaspur) 7 and Dhuri (distt. Sangrur) 7.

Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Punjab and Haryana

28.07.2016

Tibri (distt. Gurdaspur) 10, Phangota (distt.

Gurdaspur) 9, Gurudaspur (distt. Gurdaspur) 9,

Batala (distt. Gurdaspur) 8 and Madhopur (distt.

Gurdaspur) 7.

Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Punjab

MONTH: AUGUST 2016

01.08.2016 Ballabgarh (distt. Faridabad) 9, Morni (distt.

Panchkula) 7 and Nangal (dist Ropar) 7.

Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Haryana

06.08.2016 Shahpur Kandi (distt. Gurdaspur) 12, Ranjit Sagar

Dam Site (distt. Gurdaspur) 10, Madhopur (distt.

Gurdaspur) 9 and Malakpur (distt. Gurdaspur) 9.

Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Punjab and Haryana

11.08.2016

Panipat (distt. Panipat) 11, Pataudi (distt. Gurgaon)

10, Bawal (distt. Rewari) 10, Rohtak AWS (distt.

Rohtak) 8, Dujana (distt. Jhajjar) 8, Beri (distt.

Jhajjar) 8, Ujha Panipat AWS (distt. Panipat) 8

Mukerian (distt. Hoshiarpur) 13 and Dasuya (distt.

Hoshiarpur) 7.

Heavy rainfall warnings issued

for Punjab and Haryana

21.08.2016

Balachaur (distt. Nawanshahar) 13, Anandpur Sahib

(distt. Ropar) 9, Balachaur AWS (distt.

Nawanshahar) 8, Ropar (distt. Ropar) 8 and

Ludhiana (distt. Ludhiana) 8.

No heavy rainfall warning issued

25.08.2016

Moga (distt. Moga) 11, Kapurthala (distt.

Kapurthala) 11, Shahpur Kandi (distt. Gurdaspur) 9,

Phagwara (distt. Kapurthala) 8 and Madhopur (distt.

Gurdaspur) 7.

No heavy rainfall warning issued

27.08.2016 Narwana (distt. Jind) 7. No heavy rainfall warning issued

28.08.2016 Bhatinda (distt. Bhatinda) 13, Phagwara (distt.

Kapurthala) 12, Kapurthala (distt. Kapurthala) 8 and

Nakodar (distt. Jalandhar) 7.

No heavy rainfall warning issued

MONTH: SEPTEMBER 2016

01.09.2016 Madhopur (dist Gurdaspur) 8 No heavy rainfall warning issued

02.09.2016 Kapurthala (dist Kapurthala) 7 No heavy rainfall warning issued

District wise heavy to very heavy rainfall extremely heavy rainfall in Punjab and Haryana during

monsoon 2016.

MONTH DATE DISTRICT STATION RAINFALL

(in cm)

JULY & AUGUST

27.7.2016

Gurdaspur Madhopur 19

Gurdaspur Ranjit Sagar Dam 15

Gurdaspur Sahpur Kandi 15

Gurdaspur Malikpur 12

Kapurthala Mahurana 11

Gurdaspur Phangota 7

Sangrur Dhuri 7

07.08.2016

Gurdaspur Sahpur Kandi 20

Gurdaspur Ranjit Sagar Dam 15

Hosiharpur Mukerian 15

Gurdaspur Phangota 14

Gurdaspur Madhopur 13

Gurdaspur Malikpur 11

Gurdaspur Gurdaspur 10

Gurdaspur Tibri 9

Meteorological explanation of heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in Punjab in Monsoon

2016

Widespread rainfall with very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall occurred in parts of Punjab on

27th July and 6-7th August 2016. Rainfall episode was confined to most parts of Punjab with high

intensity of rainfall in north-eastern parts of Punjab. Departure of rainfall from normal during

these days has been shown in fig below.

Synoptic and thermodynamic features: On 6th August 2016 there were two low pressure

systems one over North Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood and other over South Pakistan

and adjoining Kutch( As it moved from Kutch and neighbourhood to South Pak under the

influence of westerly wave) with associated cyclonic circulation up to mid tropospheric level. A

western disturbance as trough in mid tropospheric westerlies also persisted along 68 deg East

and 30 Deg North on 7th low pressure of North M.P. and neighbourhood persisted with its

associated circulation up to mid troposphere while other low pressure lay as cyclonic circulation

over South Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan extending up to 4.5 km asl . Position of trough in

the westerly also moved to 71 deg East and 30 Deg North.

Wind field 850 hpa 6th August Wind field 300 hpa 6th August GFS f/C based 000UTC 6th

Wind field 850 hpa 7th August Wind field 300 hpa 7th August GFS f/C based 000UTC 7th

Radiosonde analysis: Radiosonde data from Patiala also indicate extremely unstable

atmosphere with high value of CAPE and lower CIN and favourable thermodynamic indices

as given below. Moisture level extended up to 500 hpa . Value of thermodynamic indices is

given below

Indices 5th August 6th August 7th August

K index 40.8 42.50 42.30

Lifted Index -3.60 -4.93 -1.78

TotalTotal Index 44.70 46.60 44.00

CAPE 1682.87 2318.36 450.31

CIN -73.47 -43.11 -127.16

Perceptible water

(mm) 66.88 72.46 70.79

Satellite analysis: Satellite picture based upon 0300 UTC of 6th august 2016 shows SCT

low/medium cloud with intense to very intense convection over SW J&K North Punjab, W–HP

and Uttrakhand E–UP and Delhi. SCT low/medium cloud with isolated weak convection over

rest J & K, rest Punjab, rest H.P. and rest Uttrakhand etc.

6.8.2016 10.30 IST 6.8.2016 11.30 IST 6.8.2016 1300 IST

6.8.2016 1400 IST 6.8.2016 1530 IST 6.8.2016 1630 IST

06.08.2016 0930 UTC 06.08.2016 0000 UTC 06.08.2016 0300 UTC

06.08.2016 0600UTC 06.08.2016 0830UTC Low level wind 0030 UTC

As it appears from the RAPID and IR and CCT that there was intense to very intense

convection over South J&K North Punjab parts of Haryana with CCT temperatures -40 to -60

deg c at 000UTc which further intensified around 0330UTC having temperature of -60 to -80

deg c and persisted there till 0600 UTC and weakened afterwards. Very heavy to extremely

heavy rainfall occurred in in Punjab during 6-7 August 2016 due to interaction of low level

westward moving monsoonal system with eastward moving upper level trough in westerly. It is

further mentioned that there was two low pressure systems one over NMP and other over Kutch

and neighborhood and trough in mid tropospheric westerly with its axix along 71deg E 30 Deg

N. Under low pressure area formed over south Pakistan adjacent J&k leading to ample moisture

incursion from Arabian seas which interacted with another low pressure system over NMP and

nhd leading to very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall.

Excess and Deficit year in Punjab ( 1901-2016)

Punjab ( 1901-2016)

Monthly and Seasonal (June-September) rainfall anomalies observed during extreme Southwest monsoon years for the period 1901-2016 for Punjab

Excess Monsoon Rainfall Years Deficient Monsoon Rainfall Years

YEAR JUN JUL AUG SEP JJAS YEAR JUN JUL AUG SEP JJAS

1908 -65.5 19.7 163.4 -49.1 48.4 1901 -77.6 11 -8.4 -71.8 -24.7

1909 -85.7 38.5 14.6 151.3 56.6 1902 20 -25.4 -36.6 -23.3 -24.7

1910 175.4 -12.7 42.1 -18.2 22.7 1904 -50 -67.6 -22.4 -16.4 -40.3

1914 37 77 -51.2 116 36.3 1905 -53.9 -27.1 -67.4 32.2 -32.1

1917 112.9 4.9 47.4 313.1 89.7 1907 -48 -53.5 56.7 -90.8 -22

1923 -46 35.9 86.1 -86.5 21.8 1911 53.3 -84.2 -36.9 -63.9 -51

1925 159.6 79.7 -4.2 -85.2 25.8 1915 -41.4 -70.1 -56.8 22.2 -44.8

1933 -0.2 9.8 105.1 129.5 65.2 1918 -18.1 -76.6 -8.3 -83.7 -48.8

1942 18.8 53.4 67.5 44.5 53.3 1920 -9.7 -6.2 -40.1 -72.2 -31.2

1945 -14.4 -9 -12.5 297 49.2 1921 -57.8 -24.2 -29.1 -45.6 -33.2

1950 -70.2 29.2 35.7 384.2 91.2 1928 -13.6 -40.7 -18.5 -31.5 -28.7

1956 53.8 49.2 -51.6 -67.8 27.5 1929 10 3.6 -33 -89.6 -26.6

1958 -36.1 13.3 5.6 327.2 67.6 1934 26.3 -10 -13 -83.5 -21.9

1959 -51.2 20.3 43.9 47.3 27 1938 189.8 -34.8 -40.4 -94.3 -27.5

1961 58.5 43.9 30.8 10.3 33.5 1939 20.4 -41.1 -51.7 -49 -40.6

1962 1.6 10 -12.5 238.7 47.4 1943 -28 -19.5 -15.2 -50.1 -24.8

1975 23.9 59.3 23.3 69.7 45.6 1946 58 -18 -2.8 -93.3 -20.4

1976 62.1 17.5 113 -4.1 50.3 1951 -93.8 22.2 -26.2 -91.2 -26.9

1977 71.9 30.9 15 20.1 27 1964 -74.3 -79.1 -16.8 15.4 -34.2

1978 166.9 23.3 53.5 -56.1 31.1 1965 -99.6 11.3 -47 -91.9 -37.9

1980 32.2 160.1 -26.7 -39.5 44.6 1969 -89.6 -42.2 -31.3 -17.6 -37.9

1984 27.7 61.1 19.2 17.8 35.2 1972 -48.7 -5.4 -17.4 -76.6 -27.6

1988 0 138.9 34.5 255.3 119.1 1974 138.3 -37.3 -40.9 -90.6 -36.1

1990 11.7 26.1 8.5 133.9 38.9 1979 -1.6 -7.8 -68.8 -58.4 -38.3

1995 11.6 -6.8 88.8 78.8 44.1 1982 36.7 -32.1 37.9 -96.2 -24.9

1996 267.4 -37.9 42.4 -15 19.9 1987 -35 -81.7 -46.2 -93.1 -67.6

1997 97.6 -3.7 87.1 -62 24 2002 -7 -62.1 -28.7 32.9 -27.2

1998 64.3 22.3 -12.1 78.8 26.3 2004 23.8 -62.5 -13.9 -87.6 -44.1

2008 388.7 -49 46.4 -44.3 20.3 2007 93.8 -53.8 21.8 -60.4 -32.2

2009 -68.8 -11.8 -51.2 -37.1 -34.9

2012 -77 -64 -37 -18 -46

2014 -53 -59 -75 16 -50

2015 9 -29 -48 -24 -31

2016 15.5 -17.6 -15 -80.9 -25.4

There were 29 Excess monsoon years and 34 deficient monsoon years during the period 1901-2016. Excess means when the rainfall is more than 20% of normal and

deficient is when rainfall is less than 20% of normal

Monsoon forecast verification 2016: This year IMD predicted normal to

excess rainfall its first forecast issued on 12th

April 2016 was predicted 106% of

LPA for country as a whole with +- 5% which was retained to 106% of LPA in its

updated forecast on 2nd

June . In its updated forecast issued on 2nd

June 2016

prediction was 104 to 110% of LPA for the country as a whole and 108% of LPA for

Northwest India with model error of +-8%. Actual rainfall for the country as a whole

was 97% of LPA and was within predicted range. Realized rainfall for NW India was

95% of LPA and hence was also within in the forecast limit issued by IMD.

Realized rainfall for Punjab was 71.6% of LPA hence was below normal.

Forecast issued and realized rainfall monsoon 2016

Region Period Stage of forecast Forecast %

of LPA

Actual rainfall

%LPA

All India June-Sept 1

st Stage 12

th

April 106±5 97

All India June-Sept 2nd Stage 2nd

June 106%±4 97

NW India June-Sept 2nd

June 108%±8 95%

Punjab June-Sept do - 71%

All India July do 107%±9 106%

All India August do 107±9 109%

Legends

Rainfall

(Special Distribution of Rainfall)

Distribution No. of Places Description

Isolated One or two Places <25% of stations gets rainfall

Scattered At a few Places (26-50)% of stations gets rainfall

Fairly Widespread At many Places (51-75)% of stations gets rainfall

Wide spread At Most place (76-100)% of stations gets rainfall

Dry - No station reported rainfall

Intensity of Rainfall

Descriptive Term used Rainfall amount in mms

Very Light Rain 0.1 - 2.4

Light Rain 2.5 – 15.5

Moderate Rain 15.6 – 64.4

Heavy Rain 64.5 – 115.5

Very Heavy Rain 115.6 - 204.4

Extremely Heavy Rain Greater or equal to

204.5mm

Weekly/Seasonal Rainfall distribution

(On Regional Scale)

Descriptive Term used % Departure of Realised rainfall from Normal rainfall

Excess + 20% or more.

Normal Between - 19 % to + 19 %.

Deficient Between - 20 % to - 59 %.

Scanty Between - 60 % to - 99 %.

No rain -100%

Weekly/Seasonal Rainfall distribution

(On All India Scale)

Descriptive Term used % Departure of Realised rainfall

Normal Within ±10 % of the Long Period Average

Below Normal < 10% of the Long Period Average

Above Normal > 10% of the Long Period Average