indicator of economic sentiment and confidence indicator in services
DESCRIPTION
Indicator of Economic Sentiment and Confidence Indicator in Services. Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic Dagmar Blahova, Edita Holickova. Development. F ull harmonisation since 1 993 in industry, construction and retail trade Services have been carried out since 2002 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Indicator of Economic Indicator of Economic Sentiment and Sentiment and
Confidence Indicator in Confidence Indicator in ServicesServices
Statistical Office Statistical Office of the Slovak Republicof the Slovak Republic
Dagmar Blahova, Edita Holickova
2
Development
Full harmonisation since 1993 in industry, construction and retail trade
Services have been carried out since 2002
Business surveys are performed since 1983
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Current state
Indicator of Economic Sentiment calculated on a monthly base since
1997 calculated as weighted arithmetic
mean of 4 components – confidence indicators in industry, construction, retail trade and consumers
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IES and its componentsCurrent state IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*CCI a, b, c, d = weights ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in
Industry BCI = 20 % CI in Construction RCI = 20 % CI in Retail trade CCI = 20 % Consumer CI
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IES including ServicesExperimental calculationsIES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*SCI +
e*CCI
a, b, c, d, e = weights
ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry
BCI = 5 % CI in Construction RCI = 5 % CI in Retail trade SCI = 30 % CI in Services CCI = 20 % Consumer CI
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Comparison of results
Economic Sentiment Indicator w ithout Services
80,0
85,0
90,0
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
120,0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2000 = 100
Average 1997 - 2004
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Comparison of results
Economic Sentiment Indicator incl. Services
110,0
115,0
120,0
125,0
130,0
135,0
140,0
2002 2003 2004 2005
2000 = 100
Average 2002 - 2004
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Comparison of resultsEconomic Sentiment Indicator incl. Services
75,080,085,090,095,0
100,0105,0110,0115,0120,0125,0130,0135,0140,0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2000 = 100
Average 1997 - 2001
Average 2002 - 2004
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Comparison of resultsEconomic Sentiment Indicator
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
ESI in SR inc. SCI
(2000=100)
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
ESI in SR w . SCI
(2000=100)
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IES (without SCI) and GDPEconomic Sentiment Indicator (w ithout SCI) and GDP
(quarterly)
70,075,080,085,090,095,0
100,0105,0110,0115,0120,0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
ESIN
100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0
GDP
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IES (incl. SCI) and GDP
Economic Sentiment Indicator (incl. SCI) and GDP (quarterly)
70,075,080,085,090,095,0
100,0105,0110,0115,0120,0125,0130,0135,0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
ESIN
98,099,0100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0111,0
GDP
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Comparison of ICI and GDP
Confidence Indicator in Industry and GDP (quarterly)
-10,0-7,0-4,0-1,02,05,08,0
11,014,017,020,0
199719981999200020012002200320042005
CI in IND
100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0
GDP
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Comparison of BCI and GDP
Confidence Indicator in Construction and GDP (quarterly)
-80,0-70,0-60,0-50,0-40,0-30,0-20,0-10,0
0,010,020,0
199719981999200020012002200320042005
CI in BUI
100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0
GDP
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Comparison of RCI and GDP
Confidence Indicator in Retail Trade and GDP (quarterly)
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
199719981999200020012002200320042005
CI in RET
100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0
GDP
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Comparison of CCI and GDP
Consumer´s Confidence Indicator and GDP (quarterly)
-50,0-45,0-40,0-35,0-30,0-25,0-20,0-15,0-10,0-5,00,0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CCI
100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0
GDP
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Comparison of SCI and GDP
Confidence Indicator in Services and GDP (quarterly)
20,025,030,035,040,045,050,055,060,065,070,0
199719981999200020012002200320042005
CI in SER
100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0
GDP
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Conclusions currently, results of calculations by
previous methodology are officially released
services are not included into composite Indicator of Economic Sentiment
in this practice we will still continue in 2006 as well
simultaneously we will calculate experimentally index by new methodology under providing of following measures
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The next measures to analyze of sample and weighted system
in calculation of Confidence Indicator in Services
to lengthen time series of CI in Services by retrospective re-calculations (econometric models)
after these steps to realize retrospective re-calculations of time series of IES
to continue on calculations of IES by new methodology
to inform economic public area on changes in calculations
to release methodology of a new way in calculation together with first publication
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IES and Confidence IES and Confidence Indicators in SlovakiaIndicators in Slovakia
Thank you Thank you
for for
your attentionyour attention