Irrational Decision: Herdsman “ Herd Behavior” in Steppe Mining Growth

BaoyindurengJingjingYanCaine Ken(Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,ChinaUniversity of Alberta ，Canada)

Supported by Natural Science Foundation China (71263036):Research on Loss and Subsidy of Ecosystem in Steppe in Inner Mongolia(2013-2014)

国家自然科学基金项目(71263036)：草原矿区生态系统服务损失及其补偿机制研究

(2013年1月1日-2016年12月)

Presentation Outline

IntroductionMethods—— STUDY AREAS—— SAMPLING METHODS—— variables—— The econometric model

ResultsDiscussion, Conclusions and Implications

Introduction

Individuals make decisions, face a variety of trade-offs between different objectives, the cost of their actions can be measured by the opportunities forgone, rational people make decisions by comparing MC and MR. people based on their face incentives to change their behavior [1] .

"There is no free lunch" ,When you have been to obtain the optimal use of resources, you have to give up any other choice, the resource price should include the opportunity cost.

• Based on MC,MR and Opportunity cost, collect local residents(including farmer ,herder ) survey data, calculated herders `s net income, to estimate the opportunity cost of grassland ecosystem services;

• then application of the Logit model to take advantage of the decision of the respondents grassland ecosystem factors regression analysis, based on the behavior of the herdsman's practice meets the requirements of sustainable development for further discussion

Methods——Study areas

Holingole city is a Heavy industry city ,located in Eastern Inner Mongolia,it is typical grassland (steppe) mining area, has become an important energy city , aluminum industrial base, and the initial formation of the energy industry . coal, coal, electricity, electricity, metallurgy, metallurgy, chemistrychemistry.

Currently, Holingole city have 22 large industrial enterprises.

In Holingole, GDP is booming because coal mining

industry.(including other heavy industry)

But development of industry ,polluted air ,water ,pasture and

influence local residents and surrounding people health.

How to balance between industrialisation and pasture. it

is a very complex issue.

Coal belt (zone)in Holingole( Enrichment,less and no coal area )

—— Sample and Data The data in this study come from Holingol city (3

communities )surrounding mining area, and neighboring with Xing An Meng league(1community).

total 109 respondents. Respondents were mainly 18-80 year-old head of the household,herders,farmer.

Since July 9, 2014 to July 21, 2013 a 12-day survey received a total of 111 data, excluding 2 invalid data, it contains a total of 109 109 valid data.

Valid questionnaires accounted for 98.2%.

• From the characteristics of respondents (Tables 2 and 3), the male head of the household accounts for the vast majority of respondents (84%); Head of household age distribution of respondents overall more balanced, mainly middle-aged 40-60 years (68%).

• nearly 79 percent of respondents education for primary or junior high school, only 1 is college.

• The vast majority of respondents families grassland area of less than 7 Ha (72%).

• Respondents small-scale farming, family sheep number under 50

Buriyate community investigation, which have 42 valid data; Hundiyin community have 26 valid data; Chageda Community have 31 valid data; Barun Community 10 valid data.

28 is non-herders, 81 herdsman in the 109. 52 residents is in upstream of mining ; 57residents is at

downstream.

Table 1

年纯收益（net

revenue）

纯收益递增额度Marginal revenue

贴现率（%）

discountMUC

浑迪音(Hundiyin)

1.58 0.54 2.25 1135.88

查格达(Chagada)

1.55 0.97 2.25 1976.8

布日亚特(Buriyat)

1.94 0.71 2.25 1485.36

巴润(Barun)

0.77 0.18 2.25 382.04

平均值(Mean)

1.46 0.60 2.25 1245.02

霍林郭勒畜牧业（animal husbandry）MUC计算表（万元/人）

资料来源：2012-2014年调查数据.

受访者特征描述(Description of Respondents)受访者特征 人数(Numbers) 比例

Percentage（%）

受访者特征 人数Numbers

比例（%）Percentag

e（%性别(gender) 受教育程度

(Education)

男（male） 92 84 小学(PS) 47 43

女(female) 17 16 初中(MS) 39 36

民族(nation) 高中中专(HS) 22 20

汉(Han) 62 57 大专及以上 1 1

蒙(mongolian) 47 43 年龄(Age)

健康状况(heath condition)

＜40 14 13

良好(good) 76 70 41～50岁 36 33

一般(average) 14 13 51～60岁 38 35

不好(poor) 19 17 ＞61 21 19

Table 2

受访者interviewees家庭特征描述

受访者家庭特征 人数 比例（%） 受访者家庭特征 人数 比例（%）

职业类型(occupation)

家庭养羊头数(number of sheep )

农牧业(agriculture)

71 65 ＜＜5050只只 5252 4747

兼营(part-time) 25 23 51～100只 15 14

非农牧业(non agri) 13 12 101～200只 13 12

家庭草场面积(size of pasture)

201～300只 16 15

＜ 7 Ha 78 72 ＞300只 13 12

7-20 Ha 14 13 家庭养牛头数(number of cattle)

20-35 Ha 10 9 ＜＜ 55头头 9191 8383

＞ 35 Ha 7 6 6～10头 3 3

家庭耕地面积(farmland)

11～15头 4 4

＜ 2 Ha 75 69 ＞15头 11 10

2～3.5 Ha 16 15 家庭所在位置(location)

3.5～7 Ha 14 13 上风处（upstream） 52 48

＞7 Ha 4 4 下风处(downstream) 57 52

Table 3

草原矿业增长特征描述(description of steppe mining)

矿区环境特征 浑迪音 查格达 布日亚特 巴润

实际观测户数/户(household) 26 31 42 10

工矿企业数量/个(No. enterprise) 11 5 6 1

非农就业比例（%）(non agri employment) 15 14 13 36

兼营业占收入比重（part-time employment

income）30% 14% 5% 58%

空气污染(cognition of air pollution) 4.19 4.55 3.50 4.30

水污染(water pollution) 6.42 6.19 4.76 5.40

噪音 (noise) 4.54 5.61 5.24 6.50

土地破坏(damage of land) 0.65 1.48 1.07 2.50

表4 草原矿业增长特征描述 资料来源：2012-2014年调查数据.

Table 4

Based on the above analysis and field survey data obtained influence respondents' decision behavior grassland animal husbandry factor X includes a total of three aspects: Respondents individual characteristics, family characteristics of respondents and features a total of 11 mining environmental arguments.

The dependent variable in this representation: Y = 1 in livestock production, Y = 0 abandon livestock production. Explanation and description of the above variables are shown in Table 5.

变量解释说明(description of variables)变量名称(variables) 变量说明 标准差 均值 最大值 最小值

受访者个体特征：

身份（X1）Idendity Herder 牧户=1；居民=0 0.43 0.75 1 0

民族（X2）nation Mongolian 蒙古=1；Han 汉=0 0.5 0.43 1 0

年龄(X3)age 实际年龄 10.37 52.37 77 31

教育水平(X4)education 0-10健康状况上升的评价水平 2.52 6.36 10 0

受访者家庭特征：

羊（X5）sheep 羊头数 170.75 130.27 970 0

牛（X6）cattle 牛头数 9.72 3.81 50 0

兼营业占收入比重（X7）牧户和居民工资性收入和自营性收

入占总收入比重0.32 0.18 1 0

非农就业比例（X8） 家庭成员中非农就业比例 0.2 0.16 1 0

矿区环境特征：

家庭所在位置（X9） 上风处=1；下风处=0 0.5 0.52 1 0

水污染X10） 0-10水污染改善的评价水平 1.76 5.62 10 0

矿企业数（X11） 矿企业的数量 2.9 6.45 11 1

因变量（y）从事畜牧业生产=1放弃畜牧业生产=0 0.5 0.56 1 0

Table 5

Result

变量名称及符号 Logit OLS系数 Exp(β) Chi-sqr prob 系数 prob

户主个体特征：

身份（X1）Idendity 3.902*** 49.501 10.221 0.0014 0.4609*** 0.0003

民族（X2）nation -1.660 0.190 2.196 0.1384 -0.0976 0.372

年龄(X3) -0.058 0.943 1.517 0.2181 -0.0079* 0.0542

受教育水平（X4） -0.177** 0.837 3.858 0.0495 -0.0057 0.6209

户主家庭特征：

羊（X5）sheep 0.019*** 1.019 15.668 0.0001 0.0011*** 0

牛（X6）cattle 0.124** 1.132 5.116 0.0237 0.0055 0.1944

兼营业占收入比重（X7） 6.851*** 944.825 11.599 0.0007 0.3231* 0.0601

非农就业比例（X8） -11.174*** 1.40E-05 7,755 0.0054 -0.4393* 0.0708

矿区环境特征：

家庭所在位置（X9） -2.038* 0.130 2.791 0.0948 0.0273 0.1531

水污染标准（X10） -0.484* 0.083 3.735 0.0533 -0.0327 0.1752

矿企业数（X11） 0.2573 1.29 2.619 0.1055 0.0273 0.1531

常数（c） 2.419 11.234 0.475 0.4906 0.6423* 0.0396

Likelihood

ratio test/R2

30.323 45.937

Prob/AdjustedR20.002 39.806

模型估计结果

注意：*、**、*** 分别表示10％、5％和1％水平显著。

Table 6

Interviewees identity(herders, resident or other) significantly influences decision-making of respondents use on grassland ecosystems(grazing and open mine).

When it is said that the identity of the respondents have a negative impact on the use of grassland ecosystems decision, which was face to face with respondents,herds strong reactions to restore grassland livestock production cross-checked.

Numbers of sheep and cattle (variable) of herders have

a positive effect on the decision of grassland animal

husbandry.

Conclusions and Discussion In the current grassland ecosystems mainly

mining and industrial development as the dominant development model, local communities are directly accept and experience is grassland ecological environment changes in very short time.

We use Dynamic Method to calculate the net income of grassland animal husbandry, grassland ecosystem preliminary estimate the opportunity cost of 1245.02 RMB/person × 81118 ≈ 100 Billion RMB.

Most herders willing to do grassland animal

husbandry for their livelihood, do not abandon (give

up)it .

Downstream herders have a higher cost of animal

production and face with various types of air water

pollution and others, from long-term. More inclined

to give up the grassland livestock production.

Future worksMining economy is still growing in Inner

Mongolia ,what is Effects on the household of

surrounding like herder family

Mining growth Climate effects

Mining growth Effect on water

Mining growth Effect on livestock and the

ecosystem

Thank you for your attention .