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Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood and Food Securityin the coast of the Bay of Bengal

Is Mass Starvation Imminent?

By: Khurshid Alam, Shameem Siddiqi, Aniruddha Dey,

Shamnaz Ahmed, Arifur Rahman, Mayeesha Azhar and Rafiqul Islam

With support from:Chintamani Mahapatra, Palash Kanti Haldar, Sanaul Haque, Sweta Mishra,

Jaferi Husain and Mahmudun Nabi

December 2013

For more information, contact [email protected]

Cover photo by Mahmud, Map Photo Agency

Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood and Food Security in the coast of

the Bay of Bengal

Is Mass Starvation Imminent?

Is Mass Starvation Imminent?Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood and Food Security in the coast of the Bay of Bengal

Acknowledgement

We submit this report to Concern Worldwide with this note of thanks to many people inside and outside the organisation including the partner organisations in Bangladesh and India who shared their thoughts, reflections and views in conducting the study and writing the report.

First, we would like to acknowledge the community members who participated in the study despite their busy life. There were many community participants including men, women, and people with physical challenges, members of the ethnic minority communities, farmers, fishermen and day labourers living in the coastal areas in Bangladesh and India that are vulnerable to disasters and other impacts of climate change. They spent their time with the study teams with the hope of coming out of these risks, while our role was to document their views and place them into a bigger picture.

Second, the report has been prepared with active technical, financial and intellectual supports from Concern Worldwide. We are particularly grateful to Saroj Dash.

Our sincere appreciation to the members of the study team in Bangladesh and India for their valuable work for data collection through various methods. Finally, we are grateful to Shushilan and Jagrata Jubo Sangha (JJS) in Bangladesh, and Regional Centre for Development Cooperation (RCDC) in India.

Khurshid Alam and Shameem Siddiqi


Abbreviations & Acronyms

ALNAP Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance in Humanitarian ActionAman Traditional varieties of paddy grown in winter in BangladeshAR Assessment Report (of IPCC)Aus Traditional varieties of paddy grown in winter in BangladeshBBS Bangladesh Bureau of StatisticsBCCSAP Climate Change Strategy and Action PlanBCCRF Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience FundBCCTF Bangladesh Climate Change Trust FundBIST-EC Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand Economic CooperationBoro Local high yielding variety of paddy grown in winter in BangladeshBWDB Bangladesh Water Development BoardDFID Department for International Development (of the Government of the United Kingdom)CSE Centre for Science and EnvironmentFAO Food and Agricultural OrganisationFEE Failure of Exchange EntitlementFGD Focus Group Discussion FPD Food production declineGBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (river basin)GECAFS Global Environmental Change and Food SystemsGoB Government of BangladeshGoI Government of IndiaGoO Government of Orissa, IndiaGP Gram Panchayet - meaning Village Council - is the lowest tier of local government in IndiaHDI Human Development IndexHIES Household Income and Expenditure SurveyIAASTD International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for DevelopmentICAR Indian Council of Agricultural ResearchINCCA Indian Network for Climate Change AssessmentIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKharif From late summer till late monsoon cropping seasonsKhas land Government owned landKillas Raised earthen mounds used as shelters for livestockMDG Millennium Development Goal


NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate ChangeNASA National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNCRMP National Cyclone Risk Mitigation ProjectNDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation IndexNIRD National Institute of Rural Development (India)NFHS National Family Health SurveyNICRA National Initiative on Climate Resilient AgricultureODI Overseas Development Institute OSDMA Orissa State Disaster Management AuthorityPPCR Pilot Programme on Climate ResilienceRabi Winter cropping seasonRMS Return of Mass StarvationSBCP Sundarban Bio-diversity Conservation ProjectSDRI Soil Development Research InstituteSLR Sea level riseSST Sea Surface TemperatureTAR Third Assessment Report (of IPCC)Union Lowest tier of local government in BangladeshUP Union Parishad - meaning Union Council (in Bangladesh)WB The World BankWIA Water Initiative of Orissa


Table of Contents

Executive Summary 9

Chapter 1: Introduction 151.1 Background, Purpose and Objectives 16

1.1.1 Background and Rationale 161.1.2 Purpose and Objectives 18

1.2 Climate Change Programme of Concern Worldwide 181.3 Conceptual Framework of Livelihood and Food Security 191.4 Design of the Study 21

1.4.1 Information Collection 221.4.2 Tools and Techniques 22

1.5 Limitations of the Study 23

Chapter 2: Context of the Study Locations 252.1 The Bay of Bengal: A Big Picture View 262.2 Contexts of Bangladesh and India 272.3 Context of the Study Villages 28

2.3.1 Physical Features 282.3.2 Settlement Pattern 282.3.3 Livelihood Characteristics 28

2.4 Policy and Institutional Landscape of Climate Change 30

Chapter 3: Impact of Climate Change 353.1 An Overview 363.2 Temperature 373.3 Precipitation 393.4 Sea Level Rise 423.5 Salinity Intrusion 433.6 Disaster Risk 443.7 Observed Climate Change by the Study Population 45

Chapter 4: Implications of Climate Change for Livelihood andFood Security 494.1 Implications for Livelihood and Food Security 504.2 Impact on Women 54

Chapter 5: Conclusions and Policy Implications 59


Annexes 63Annex 1: Bibliography 64Annex 2: List of Additional Tables 69

List of Boxes

Box 1.1: Famines in India during Colonial times 16Box 1.2: Sampling Procedure 22Box 3.1: Why should farmers be worried about warming? 37Box 3.2: Fishing Community in a Warming Bay of Bengal 39Box 3.3: Rice and rainfall 41Box 3.4: Sea coming closer - an evidence of sea level rise 42Box 3.5: Effects of salinity intrusion on homestead gardens. 44Box 3.6: Extreme weather events and crop production 45Box 4.1: Small farmers losing interest in agriculture 51Box 4.2: Intra-household food distribution 56

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Food security and climate change framework. 20Figure 3.1: Percentage of people observing climate change. 36Figure 3.2: Observed climate change by coast. 46Figure 4.1: Percentage of households mentioning decline of production by coast. 50Figure 4.2: Reasons for decline of production. 51Figure 4.3 Percentage of people experiencing food insecurity by severity scale. 53Figure 4.4: Trend in spending on safety net programmes in Bangladesh. 54Figure 4.5: Impact of Production Decline on women and girls. 55

List of Tables

Table 2.1 Selected Human Development Indicators of India and Bangladesh 27Table 2.2 Three Main Sources of Income of the Study Household 29Table 2.3 How Study Population Utilise their Land by Coast by Head of Household 29Table 2.4 Types of fishing activities among the most vulnerable households 30Table 2.5 Types of forest use activities 30Table 2.6 The summary of the climate change strategies of Bangladesh and India 31Table 3.1: Sources of water used for agriculture by coast and type of household head 38Table 3.2 Sources of drinking water by coast and by the head of household. 43

Is Mass Starvation Imminent?Impacts of Climate Change on the Livelihood and Food Security in the coast of the Bay of Bengal

Is Mass Starvation Imminent?Impacts of Climate Change on the Livelihood and Food Security in the coast of the Bay of Bengal

Photo by: Mahmud, Map Photo Agency

ExecutiveSummary


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Executive SummaryIntroduction and Context

1. This report presents the key findings, and the authors' reflections and policy recommendations of a study conducted to reappraise the implications of climate change on livelihood and food security of the most vulnerable people who live on the coastline of Bay of Bengal in India and Bangladesh. This is a part of a longitudinal research. A summary of the first round of the research - Climate Change in the Coast of Bay of Bengal: Impacts, Resilience and Implications - was launched in Durban at the Conference of the Parties in 2011.

2. Considering the multitudes of climatic and non-climatic issues affecting how people secure their livelihood, food and limited resources, the scope of the study is selective. It mainly examined the ways of producing food by the poor people, and how their food production is affected by climate change. A four-pronged approach was adopted in the study: (i) examination of the characteristics of livelihood and degree of their dependence on climate; (ii) assessing changes in climate variability, and sea level rise and disaster risk; (iii) collecting experience of poor people on climate change and its impact on food security, and interpreted those with available climate change predictions; and (iv) drawing a set of conclusions, assumptions and hypotheses on climate change impact on food security. The study is based on a survey of 280 households, Focus Group Discussions with selected livelihood groups in 2013, and literature review. The sampling procedure is explained in Box 1.2. It was conducted in four districts in Bangladesh i.e. Khulna, Satkhira, Patuakhali and Bagerhat; and two districts in Orissa state of India i.e. Kendrapara and Jagatshingpur.

3. The study findings were further interpreted into the context of Indian famine during the colonial time (1757-1947). The southern part of India, where this study was conducted, experienced almost all of those famines (see Box 1.1). The authors made efforts to apprise whether climate change can trigger food crisis of colonial scale that they call "return of mass starvation (RMS)". Using the established causes of Indian famines i.e. Food Production Decline and Failure of Exchange Entitlement, the authors formulated a hypothesis to test out with the findings of the study that RMS may occur when:

a) The socioeconomic context in which crop failure triggered famine in the colonial past still exists. Many other authors observed that the colonial famines were not sudden events, rather they emanated from a process of existing vulnerabilities such as land ownership; gender and other forms of discrimination; and colonial governance and the war;

b) Pace and effectiveness of adaptation remain limited to face further warming and associated production failure;

c) Exchange entitlement fails as it was the case during the colonial famines as seen by Professor Amartya Sen. About 50% rural people are agricultural labourers or sharecroppers who meet their food intake from the market susceptible to the failure of exchange entitlement that are occasionally evident.

d) Finally, the governments' ability is constrained to sustain the increasing spending on social safety net programmes in the context of food production decline, and their ability to import food on time, and effectiveness of timely humanitarian response.


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Key Findings

4. Study finds that despite significant developmental progress in the post-colonial time, fragility of livelihood of the 'most vulnerable people' has not changed much. It is still a mix of modern and traditional forms, and is associated with agriculture which is largely rain-fed. The study examined up to three major sources of income and food for the households. These were own agriculture, daily wage in agriculture and fishing; homestead gardening; collection of forest products with occasional mention of livestock and homestead based vegetable and fruit production (Table 2.2). These sources of income and food are highly susceptible to climate variability and frequent disasters. Majority of these households remain landless with significant gender disparity e.g. about 30% in Orissa and 20% in Bangladesh own farm land. Only 3.4% women headed households in Bangladesh coast own farm land compared to their male counterpart (25%), while in Orissa slightly more female headed households own land than male headed households (39%:27%). A significant majority depends of daily wages, and availability of wage varies by season and crop performance. As a result, a large number of people are dependent on social safety-net programmes of the governments (see Chapter 4).

5. As mentioned in the 2011 report, people have been experiencing climate change similar to scientific predictions. Compared to 2011 survey, more people (almost 100% in both coasts) observed climate change in the form of flooding; erratic rainfall; frequent cyclone and drought; salinity in water and crop land; sea and river erosion; higher temperature and more frequent high tide (Fig 3.2). Following are a few selected predictions on warming, precipitation, salinity and disaster that available literature suggest:

On warming: In the absence of adequate mitigation measures, there is a 40% chance of warming exceeding 4°C by 2100 and 10% chance of it exceeding 5°C in the same period as a World Bank report suggests. It also observes that significant crop yield impacts are already being felt at 0.8°C warming. A decrease of 10% in rice yield has been found to be associated with every 1°C increase in temperature (ADB, 2009 and IRRI, 1997) while the yield of dry season rice crops in the Philippines already decreased by 15% for each 1°C increase in the growing season mean temperature (Peng et al., 2004).

On precipitation: The major cropping and fishing seasons overlap with the drought, cyclone and flooding seasons in the coast of Bay of Bengal. Any change in the rainfall pattern thus significantly affects crop and other agro-based livelihoods as 60% South Asian agriculture is rain-fed. Bangladesh now experiences intense and frequent heavy precipitation events while wet days are expected to decrease towards the end of 21st century. Climate change will not only decline food availability but also the ability of the people to access food (through reduction of livelihood opportunities). The Orissa Economic Survey report shows that the share of employment for cultivators and agricultural workers has sharply declined between 1991 and 2001 (74% in 81 census; 73% in 91 census; 57% in 2001 census), which according to the report can be explained by fluctuating rainfall (GoO, 2013).

On salinity: Salinity has emerged, especially in the coast of Bangladesh, as a significant problem for food production with other consequences. Most estimation suggest that it would increase in the context of change in precipitation, decreasing dry season water flow, increasing sea level rise and increasing temperature. Winter season Boro crop of Bangladesh has already significantly reduced in the southwest coast due to the intrusion of saline water.


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On disaster: Disasters like cyclone, coastal flooding and high tides not only kill people but also destroy food production on a regular basis. With climate change, frequency of cyclones during November and May over the North Indian Ocean has increased twofold in the past 122 years. Using the Bay of Bengal in a hydrodynamic model, the World Bank estimates that cyclone exposed areas in Bangladesh will increase by 26% and the affected population will grow as high as 122% by 2050. These cyclones can have serious implications on micro and macro food production. For example, the 1999 Orissa super cyclone destroyed 1.35 million hectares of paddy crop and 0.28 million hectares of non-paddy crop. During 1970-2004, Bangladesh lost an estimated amount of over half a million hectares of crop land. People identified disasters as major threat to their food security and livelihood (Fig 4.2).

6. The entire study population (100% in both coasts) reported to have experienced decrease in production of paddy and other crops; fish catch; forest products and livestock due to climate change and non-climatic reasons (Figs. 4.1 and 4.2). Small farmers, constituting at least 90% of farmers in India are losing interest in agriculture. A considerable portion of land own by the female headed households remains unutilised due to risks associated with crop failure and other non-climatic factors. This is also an indication of increasing reliance on market for accessing food.

7. Climate change has further worsened the existing pattern of gender discrimination. When wage rate drops during lean time, more than 80% women headed households reported getting less opportunity to work, while 23% reported to receive less wage (significantly high in Bangladesh). Women taking up the greatest burden when households' production declines which is evident for all types of livelihoods such as livestock, fishing and collection of forest products (see detailed analysis Table 2.6 in Annex 2). Increased hardship and prolonged working hours are some of the implications mentioned by more than 70% women headed households in both coasts, with significant developmental consequences such as reduction in time spent for children's education and playing social roles at the community levels. Such discrimination may continue - if not worsen - in accessing adaptation resources e.g. funds, technology, skills and agricultural inputs which means that women are most likely to experience bigger hurdles to adapt to climate change.

8. Resulting from fragility in livelihoods, widespread hunger among the most vulnerable households is evident. At least one third of the study households experience hunger round the year or for some months in a year. Using severity of food insecurity scale, the study also found significant coastal differences (Fig 4.3). Hunger round the year, which is the bottom of the scale, is not reported in Orissa while 10% households in Bangladesh experienced the condition. About 30% households in Orissa reported to have adequate food round the year, which is the top of the scale, but none in Bangladesh reported to belong to that scale. This situation can be explained by large coverage of social safety-net in India that also covers the entire study population in Orissa (i.e.100%).

Further Reflections

9. Comparing to colonial time, livelihood fragility of the most vulnerable people remains similar even today, and is highly sensitive to day-to-day changes in the climate. Weather extremes that triggered some of the major food crises in colonial time are likely to occur causing reduction in crop production at household and national levels. With climate change, rainfall pattern is now more erratic than the colonial past. Some climate change impacts - e.g. rising


temperature and sea level rise - were not present in the colonial famine context. Such impacts bring some additional threats to food security around today's Bay of Bengal region. The governments' ability to invest in social safety-net to maintain food security of the most vulnerable people is most likely to be limited in the coming decades due to reduction of GDP, and uncertainty in the international food market. Although more studies are needed to understand the situation in India, it would certainly be a risk for Bangladesh. Humanitarian aid is also most likely to be exhausted with increasing frequency of disasters.

10. The Return of Mass Starvation (RMS) resulting from climate change is a genuine risk in the Bay of Bengal region. However, due to resource limitations, this study was not able to test the hypothesis with enough rigour. Still, it remains a highly credible hypothesis important for the governments and policy makers to pay serious attention to. The authors are convinced that the RMS is preventable; and is conditional to timeliness and effectiveness of the adaptation measures at scale. It will also depend on the scale and intensity of the mitigation measures to prevent further warming.

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Photo by: Shafiqul Alam Kiron, Map Photo Agency

Chapter 1Introduction


IntroductionThis chapter introduces the study including its background, design, and climate change programming of Concern Worldwide along with some key highlights on how climate change impacts food security. It then introduces a hypothesis - return of mass starvation - that guides the overall study design and presentation of findings. The study methodology is presented at the end of this chapter.

1.1 Background, Purpose and Objectives

1.1.1 Background and Rationale

South Asia has moved up from the famines and mass starvation (see Box 1.1) that dominated Indian history during the British Colonial rule (1757-1947). These famines, as Mike Davis called Victorian Holocaust in his book Late Victorian Holocaust (Davis, 2001), estimated to have killed more than 30 million people in Bengal and Deccan regions of today's India and Bangladesh. Recent reappraisal of these famines points at a combination of production failure (Chakrabarti, 2004) and entitlement crisis (Sen et al., 1982) as the major causes. Since the end of the Colonial rule in 1947 (1971 for the independence of Bangladesh from the post-Colonial Pakistan rule), both the countries experienced relatively limited scale mass starvation in the post-independence time.

Box 1.1: Famines in India during Colonial times.

Famine is placed at the centre of modern history of India. At least 14 large scale famines were recorded between the 11th and 17th centuries. Those famines and associated epidemics killed at least 60 million people in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries (Chakrabarti, 2004). The southern part of India, where this study was conducted, experienced almost all of those famines. The Bengal famine of 1770 is estimated to have killed nearly one-third of the population of the region i.e. about 10 million people. The Orissa famine of 1866-67 killed one third of the state's population (Imperial Gazetteer of India 1907) and the incident influenced the course of its development path. Fatality statistics of Bengal Famine of 1943 set of have two million, which took place during the World War II, and contributed greatly to the end of British rule in India. Historian Mike Davis believed that these famines (in Asia and Africa) created today's so called Third World (Davis, 2001).

Many studies conducted by the British administration and by later researchers in post-independence times challenged British administration's doctrine of natural disasters as the key cause of these famines. For example, Professor Amartya Sen's theory of Failure of Exchange Entitlement (FEE) argues that most of the famines were caused less by food availability decline than the shifts in the existing pattern of exchange relation (i.e. inability of people to purchase food due to price hike and improper distribution by the government). In a simpler term, he points out that during all the famines price of food grain grows too high for the purchasing power of wage earners and non-food producers which is a failure of political system (Chakrabarti, 2004).

No doubt that 'crop failure' triggered decline of food availability in all the past famines which should be understood in the inherent problems of an agrarian society (ibid). The Bengal, Bihar and Orissa were ideal for rice production which covered 75% of the total cultivable land. Aman, which is grown in winter was always susceptible to rain failure and cyclones. Suitable rainfall and temperature are important to maintain a certain moisture level in the land for Aman to grow. Any imbalance to this where irrigation is limited would lead to crop failure (ibid). Inadequate and untimely rainfall was the 'proximate cause' of crop failure during 1884, 1891-92, 1895-96 and 1896-97 (ibid). The Orissa famine was preceded by a drought as the monsoon of 1865 was scanty and stopped prematurely. For the Bengal famine of 1943, the winter 1942 Aman rice crop was destroyed by cyclone and three tidal waves in October.

Source: Wikipedia and Chakrabarti, 2004.

Chapter 1

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In the post-independence era, experience of famines played important role in the politics of India and Bangladesh and, thus received enormous policy attention and investments on irrigation infrastructure, flood protection embankments, introduction of improved cropping technology and land reforms for preventing occurrence of any famine.

As a result, the South Asia1 moved into a growth trajectory of food production in the past few decades. India, the largest of the South Asian economies, is now largely self-sufficient in food grain production and is an emerging exporter (Ganguly and Gulati 2013). For Bangladesh, the overall production of rice has increased from about 12Mt in 1981 to over 25Mt in 20012 (Winston, 2010). Despite such growth, India and Bangladesh are also the homes of the world's largest concentration of people with hunger. More than 300 million people in South Asia are undernourished, which is the highest among the major regions in the world (FAO 2012). India and Bangladesh are among the top 10 countries in the world with high level of stunting among children (Unicef 2009).

The way food is produced and accessed by the poor households in the coast of Bay of Bengal is made up of both elementary (e.g. hunting-gathering and homestead gardening) and modern (irrigated agriculture and use of high yielding varieties) forms, and is highly sensitive to little and day-to-day change in climate variability let alone the climate change. Agriculture is highly sensitive to long term average condition of rainfall and temperature, and also the occurrence of droughts, floods, heat waves, frosts and other extreme events (IPCC, 2012). This is a major policy concern for the countries where more than 80% people are dependent on various types of agro-based livelihoods, and 60% of agricultural activities are rain fed in India (World Bank 2013).

Most of the prediction and observed data suggest changes in rainfall pattern, temperature and disasters (see Chapter Three). Increasing frequency of these weather events would severely affect both national and household level food security. On the other hand, incremental impact of food production loss by regular and localised changes in climate variability such as tidal surge, localised flood, occasional storm, water logging, etc have implications for the ability of households to access quality and quantity of food they need for healthy and happy life.

The IPCC already predicted 22% loss in crop production South Asia resulting from climate change (IPCC 4th Assessment Report) which raises the concern whether the Bay of Bengal countries would be able to maintain the growth in food production achieved in the post-colonial era or risk of going back to the recurrence of colonial famine.

In such a context, Concern Worldwide has undertaken this study to delve into the implications of climate change on the livelihood and food security of the people who live on the coastline of Bay of Bengal in India and Bangladesh. This is the second round of a longitudinal study of Concern Worldwide. A Summary of the first round of the research - Climate Change in the Coast of Bay of Bengal: Impacts, Resilience and Implications - was launched in Durban in the Conference of the Parties in 2011. The first round focused on the disaster risk and highlighted the multitudes of climate change impacts in the coast of Orissa and Bangladesh. The study indicated the fragility of poor people's livelihoods impacting on their ability to secure adequate and quality food. The study also highlighted how climate change exacerbated changes in the bio-physical conditions on which millions of South Asians depend to make their living.

1. Most of the South Asian countries are located on the coast of Bay of Bengal, except Pakistan and Nepal. 2. Note that the population increased from 90 to 129 million over the same period. The rice production growth rate during 1981-1991 was

about 3% per annum that increased to 4% per annum afterwards (please see Winston H. Yu, 2010 for more).

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1.1.2 Purpose and Objectives

The purpose of the study is to reappraise the implications of climate change on livelihood and food security of the most vulnerable people in the Bay of Bengal coast of Bangladesh and India. It documents the experience of climate change impact and makes efforts to communicate the importance of specific actions to the policy makers. Specifically, the study addresses three key objectives:

i. To update the present scenario of climate change and disaster risks in the project areas of Concern Worldwide, comparing with the baseline situation;

ii. To examine how climate change affects livelihood and food security of the most vulnerable people; and

iii. To identify policy recommendations to safeguard food security from the impacts of climate change.

The scope of livelihood and food security can be vast cutting across many areas and factors of poverty, development, trade, equity and entitlement, etc. A number of frameworks exist to analyse food security in the context of livelihood, but most of them require complex and elaborate data sets. Appreciating these limitations, this study examines the ways of producing food by the poor people in the Bay of Bengal areas, and how their food production is affected by climate change. The experience of the poor people from the study areas is interpreted with the help of available climate change predictions to identify important priorities for action.

1.2 Climate Change Programme of Concern Worldwide

Concern Worldwide has been involved in the fields of disaster risk reduction, disaster response and climate change in India and Bangladesh for many years. With funding support from EuropeAid, they are implementing a project3 in the Bay of Bengal coast. It is set out to build resilience of poor and marginalised people along the Bay of Bengal coast working with 80,000 people in four coastal districts: Khulna, Satkhira, Patuakhali and Barguna in Bangladesh; and Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara in the Orissa state of India. The project works directly with vulnerable people and their communities along with the authorities and organisations, to prepare for and adapt to the impacts of hazards and climate change.

The project formulated following four results:

i. Increased capacity of state and non-state actors leading to the integration of appropriate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation activities into relevant multi-sectoral development plans.

ii. Increased capacity of target communities to withstand, respond to and recover from the impact of hazards through a number of preparedness measures.

iii. Pilot projects implemented to demonstrate practical way for climate change adaptation.iv. Lessons learnt are promoted and shared amongst practitioners and policy makers at state

national, regional and international levels.

In order to achieve these results, the project implements a number of broad activities e.g. support to build adaptive capacity, building regional knowledge, supporting people to influence climate policy and actions, enhancement of disaster risk reduction at different levels, and piloting alternative livelihood options.

3. Increasing Resilience and Reducing Risk of Coastal Communities to Climate Change and Natural Hazards in the Bay of Bengal programme (2011 - 2016). The programme is locally known as Paribartan (i.e. change).

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1.3 Conceptual Framework of Livelihood and Food Security

There is high degree of consensus about the definitions of livelihood and food security, although measuring and assessing food security in normal and emergency contexts may differ by country and organisation. The definition shifts from 'international and national level food security' to household and individual level in recent times although food security was already enshrined into the UN Declaration of Human Rights of 1948 i.e. right to an adequate standard of living including food. In 1974, the Universal Declaration on Eradication of Hunger and Malnutrition enunciated that 'every man, woman and child has an inalienable right to be free from hunger'. Halving hunger is a global target in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Despite some limitations in the application, Amartya Sen's entitlement theory (1981) formed the basis of most of the food security definitions (ODI, 2008) or explanation of mass starvation and famine. He argued, based on many case studies, that famine occurred not just because of unavailability of enough food but because people could not access it i.e. exchange entitlement. He further defines that people get food secured through production-based entitlements i.e. crops and livestock; own-labour entitlements i.e. waged labour and professions; trade-based entitlements i.e. trading artisan products and natural resources like forestry products; and inheritance and transfer entitlements i.e. from the state, or private gifts and loans (Sen 1981, quoted in ODI, 2008).

Livelihood

This study accepted DFID's definition of sustainable livelihood. According to DFID, a sustainable livelihood consists of: … the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base (DFID, 1999).

Livelihood makes food available to household and market (production entitlement) and also conditions access to food (for the case of trade based entitlement).

Food security

"Food security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (FAO, 1996). People access and utilise their food in a simple term through hunting-gathering, agriculture and farming, earning income, and then purchasing from market. Thus people's ability to secure and sustain their food requirement is greatly dependent on local bio-physical environment, national and international policy context, and local trade - in recent years on market. What local people produce is important, but efficiency of market and policies are also important.

The challenges to sustainable food security come both from the demand side e.g. the number of people, their command over financial and physical resources, their dietary desires, and their location; and from the supply side e.g. the capacity of natural resources augmented by human actions where they are located to meet these demands over an extended period (Nelson et al, 2013).

Agriculture is important for food security in two ways: (a) it produces the food people eat; and (b) it provides the primary source of livelihood for 36% of the world's total workforce. In the heavily populated countries of Asia and the Pacific, this share ranges from 40%-50%, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, two-thirds of the working population still make their living from agriculture (ILO, 2007). If

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agricultural production in the low-income developing countries of Asia and Africa is adversely affected by climate change, the livelihoods of large numbers of the rural poor will be at risk and their vulnerability to food insecurity will increase.

Understanding climate change impact on livelihoods, food security, and more comprehensively on food systems requires an analysis of two important aspects i.e. one is external to the household, and the other internal to it (Chambers, 1989; quoted in ODI, 20114). Climate change as an external shock influences process of food security (e.g. livelihoods, FAO's food system or Sen's exchange entitlement) and thus the outcome of it, which is a healthy life. The following diagram presents a simple framework that explains how climate change affects food security.

4. Young. H. et.al. Food-security assessments in emergencies: a livelihoods approach. HPN Paper. ODI. 2011.

Figure 1.1: Food security and climate change framework.

Food security outcome: Healthy life; fulfilment of basic needs and

accumulation of assets

Livelihood contextAccess to livelihood assets: physical, natural, financial,

human and social households' livelihood strategies, coping mechanism

Production entitlement e.g. crops or livestock; Own-labour based entitlement e.g. jobs, wages;

and Trade-based entitlement e.g. market

Inheritance and transfer

entitlements

Food availability Food access Food utilisation

Climate change contextCO2 Fertilization Effects: Increase in availabilityof atmospheric carbon dioxide for plant growth.Increase In Global Mean Temperatures: Affecting production of certain crops including rice. Gradual Changes In Precipitation: Crop loss due to water scarcity/rainfall change. Increase In Frequency And Intensity Of Extreme Weather Events: Drought, flooding and cyclone destroy crops and livestock more frequently.Greater Weather Variability: Shifting cropping season will not help to practice traditional ways of farming. Sea Level Rise: inundation of crop and grazing land. Changes In Biophysical Condition: salinity intrusion.

Physical, social,

political and trade context

InfrastructureProduction technology

Land tenure system

National food production reduced for redistribution,

increasingly import difficulties to meet local food shortfall,

increased expenditure on social safety net and humanitarian aid.

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This study examines the future of food security situation in the context of climate change. It is done in a historical perspective using evidence of how and why famines occurred during the colonial period in India. Based on early literature review, the study formulated a hypothesis that the authors called 'Return of Mass Starvation (RMS)' as a consequence of climate change impact in the current socioeconomic context on the coast of Bay of Bengal. Thus, the study assumes that persistent calorie intake inequality of present days may lead to 'mass starvation' (or a famine-like situation) in the context of climate change if:

i. The socio-economic context in which crop failure triggered famine in the colonial past still exists. As seen in the colonial time, famines were not sudden events, rather they all involved diachronicity. They emanated from a process of existing vulnerabilities such as land ownership; gender and other forms of discrimination; and colonial governance and the war. In such vulnerable situations, crop failure triggered famines.

ii. Pace and effectiveness of adaptation remain limited to face further warming and associated production failure.

iii. Exchange entitlement fails, as it was the case seen by Professor Amartya Sen. As high as 50% rural people are agricultural labourers or sharecroppers who meet their food intake from the market (political economy paper of 2007 food crisis/UN). Food price hike and reduction in employment may trigger failure of exchange entitlement, which are occasionally evident. Bangladesh and India are likely to have that difficulty even without climate change in the coming decadeswhen their population is expected to reach about 1.5 billion.

iv. Finally, the governments' ability is constrained to sustain the increasing spending on social safety net programmes in the context of food production decline (FPD), and their ability to import food on time. This might be the case if / when almost all the rice producing countries experience FPD. Supply of humanitarian aid may fall short in the context of growing demand due to increasing frequency of disasters. It is already evident that food aid is declining and the overall humanitarian aid is not growing. International and regional 'food politics' may also play important roles such as price escalation, food storage for higher price and likely in-country emergency followed by food dumping.

1.4 Design of the Study

Understanding impact on livelihood and food security is not straight forward and one study cannot cover the multitudes of climatic and non-climatic issues that affect how people secure their livelihood and food in modern times. A complete understanding requires use of 'food system' analysis that is widely utilised by FAO and more recently by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change in their report "Achieving food security in the face of climate change" (IAASTD, 2009). But, a wealth of knowledge is already available based on observed climate change and model based prediction and often using food system analysis, which are the important sources of reference for this study.

Keeping this knowledge availability in mind, the study was designed based on the following steps:

i. First, the study examined the characteristics of livelihood and food security, and degree of their dependence on climate;

ii. Second, it examined how climate change especially changes in climate variability, sea level raise and disaster risk have been changing in the study locations;

iii. Third, it gathered experience of poor people on climate change and its impact on food security, and interpreted those with already available climate change predictions; and

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iv. Finally, drew a set of conclusions, assumptions and hypotheses on climate change impact on food security.

Due to resource limitation, the study does not cover the entire Bay of Bengal, and picked up six districts from the state of Orissa, India and south west coast of Bangladesh. It does not deal with the measurement of food insecurity and nutrition, rather focuses on the 'experience' of poor households in their efforts to make them food secure.

1.4.1 Information Collection

The study was built on knowledge and experience of the people living in the Orissa (India) and Bangladesh coasts. This round of the study conducted a re-survey with 280 households sampled and identified from the first round in 2010. A multi-stage sampling procedure was performed which is explained in Box 1.2. The study covered four districts in Bangladesh i.e. Khulna, Satkhira, Patuakhali and Bagerhat; and two districts in Orissa state of India i.e. Kendrapara and Jagatshingpur.

Box 1.2: Sampling Procedure

Selection of DistrictAll six programme districts of Concern Worldwide from Orissa (India) and Bangladesh coasts were covered. In addition, two Unions / Gram Panchayets (GPs) were selected purposively from each project districts for Union level analysis.

Selection of VillageTotal 20 villages from Orissa (India) and Bangladesh coast were selected purposively based on their relative vulnerability to climate change (e.g. closeness to sea or river).

Selection of Most Vulnerable HouseholdsA group of 280 households was pre-determined using statistical procedure of 95% confidence; and considering potential drop-out and non-response. Total 20 households were allocated to each village, which were chosen from the households identified at the bottom of wellbeing ranking in each village. These were selected through participatory wellbeing ranking exercise conducted as part of the first round of the study. Each household was assigned a unique code.

1.4.2 Tools and Techniques

Three major tools were applied to gather information:

i. Literature review: Reviews were carried out separately in India and Bangladesh that looked into all observed data and models based prediction available on the web. A list of literature reviewed is attached in Annex 1.

ii. Quantitative survey: For the quantitative part of the study, a structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Three sets of indicators, some of which was already utilised in the last round, were selected for this round. These indicators are listed in Table 1.

iii. Qualitative tools: Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and household case studies were conducted to identify specific examples and illustrate the climate change problem.

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1.5 Limitations of the Study

As mentioned earlier, understanding the impact of climate change on livelihood and food security is a complex process requiring an array of different data sets from food security to nutrition that may call for significant investments of funding and time. Therefore, this study depends greatly on secondary literature.

Food security of households depends on a range of complex climatic and non-climatic factors. This study only focuses on production and income related factors based on the hypothesis that people would be food insecure if their means of production is affected by increasing frequency of disaster shocks and if they have limited capacity to absorb or adapt to the situation. Food supply from state and international aid is an important element of resilience to climate change. However, vital public goods like supplied food may also be affected by climate change, which is an area not covered by the past studies. Therefore, this study limits its analysis mainly to highlight the concerns on international humanitarian aid.

The study is not a measurement of food insecurity or malnutrition from a technical perspective. Rather, it explores how the very poor and most vulnerable people experience it and how they see their means of production (which are not often captured in the national level data) are affected by the increasing impacts of climate change.

Most of the model based studies mainly focus on macro scenarios of food security. This study has its primary focus on the affected and vulnerable poor people on the ground whose experiences have been interpreted with the help of the macro level predictions of climate change and its implications for food security.

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Photo by: Sadia Hossain, Concern Worldwide

Chapter 2Context of the

Study Locations


Chapter 2

5. Bay of Bengal includes India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Sri Lanka-and located in South Asia. 6. http://na.nefsc.noaa.gov/lme/text/lme34.htm 7. Sri Lanka and India to the west, Bangladesh to the north, and Myanmar (Burma) and the northern part of the Malay Peninsula to the east.

Context of the Study LocationsThis chapter presents an overview of the context of the study countries and locations. Taking on from the first strand of the study hypothesis, it carefully examines the vulnerability context and identifies the key issues that might trigger RMS as a result of climate change impact that is discussed in the following sections.

2.1 The Bay of Bengal: A Big Picture View

The coast of Bay of Bengal5 -- the largest bay in the world - is rich in natural resources and monsoon that makes it greatly suitable for agriculture and fishing. A quarter of world population live in the countries - most of South Asia - on the Bay of Bengal, and 400 million people live in the coastal areas of the Bay5. The region consists of seven countries7 with a growing population of about 1.6 billion in 2010 which is projected to rise over 2.2 billion by 2015 (World Bank, 2013). It also has the largest concentration of poverty in the world.

The region is gifted with some of the world largest rivers, biggest delta (Bangladesh) and one of the largest mountain ranges (Himalaya-Hindu Kush range). The Bay of Bengal has a distinct tropical marine ecosystem and is rich in biodiversity characterised by mangroves, marshes and various fish species. Fisheries production in the Bay is six million tonnes per year, more than seven per cent of the world's catch. The area hosts the world's largest mangrove forest i.e. the Sundarbans in Bangladesh and second largest mangrove ecosystem, Bhitarkanika in Orissa in India. On the other hand, it is the most vulnerable and fragile coastal ecosystem to be affected by climatic dynamism (IUCN, 1997; UNESCO, 2009).

The Bay is the source of some of the deadliest cyclones that killed millions of people in the last century. To make things worse, the coast is now greatly impacted by climate change. Cyclonic pattern has been changing in South Asia where more than 750 million people (75% of regional total) have been affected by weather related disasters since 1990 (UNDP, 2007). This means that intense cyclonic activities, frequent flooding, drought, sea level rise and salinity intrusion will pose significant additional threat to an already vulnerable population and environment. The frequency of cyclones during November and May over the North Indian Ocean has increased twofold in last 122 years (Singh et al., 2007). The World Bank estimated that agriculture, on which majority of the population depends, will be severely affected by changes in the monsoon dynamics caused by changes in the conditions of the Bay of Bengal and the Himalayas. The coast of Bangladesh and Orissa in India are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia with high mortality risk.

Glaciers cover about 3 million hectares of the Himalayas (often called Third Pole) which is the third largest area of ice in the world after the north and south poles that feeds the major river system i.e. Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna, Kaveri, Ganges and Brahmaputra flow into the Bay of Bengal. Due to warming, these glaciers are now melting much faster than before and may completely disappear by 2035 (Cruz et al, 2007 quoted in Pender 2010). This glacier system feeds seven of Asia's largest

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8. http://www.firstpost.com/economy/poor-poorer-poorest-states-its-bihar-mp-odisha-99257.html

Table 2.1: Selected Human Development Indicators of India and Bangladesh

river including 70% of summer flow of Ganges, which provide water to around 500 million people (Stern, 2006).

The climate of the Bay of Bengal is dominated by monsoon (Roy, undated). Approximately 70% South Asians live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. The livelihoods of poor people in colonial time were dependent on paddy, water bodies for fishing and collection of forest products although a section of people were engaged in artisan productions such as goldsmiths, potters, etc (Chowdhury, 2011), and food security historically depends on the quality and extent of access to these resources. The poverty and vulnerability has been heavily correlated with the social and structural causes alongside the fragile climate and ecosystems in the region of many centuries. Even today, that context for the poor people has not changed much. With the climate change, the vulnerability of these people is worsening further. Therefore, as measures are being planned to address the impacts of climate change, the social and structural causes of poverty and marginalisation need to be equally analysed and addressed.

2.2 Contexts of Bangladesh and India

The coastlines of Bangladesh and India are highly exposed to climate change. About 30 million people in Bangladesh (Population Census, 2011), and 40 million in India live along the coastlines (Population Census India, 2011). In Bangladesh, 31.5% are below the upper poverty line based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), and in Orissa 57.2% people are poor as depicted by Tendulkar committee in 2004-058 .

Poverty reduction is high on the development agenda in India and Bangladesh, and both the countries have achieved significant reduction of poverty in recent years. Incidence of poverty in Bangladesh has reduced to 32.5% (BBS, 2010) in 2011 from 51% in 1995. Orissa's Human Development Index (HDI) increased from 0.27% in 1981 to 0.40% in 2001 (GoO, 2004). Nevertheless, poverty remains a key challenge for both Bangladesh and India (including its Orissa state). More than 50 million people still live in extreme poverty in Bangladesh (BBS, 2006). About 47% of Orissa's 40 million people live below poverty line and almost 90% live in the rural areas (Merylyn and Vaideeswaran 2010).

Selected Indicators India Bangladesh

Daily per capita calorie supply (Kcal) in 1999 2417 2201

% of population living below US$1.25 a day (most recent year during 2001-2011)

32.67% 43.25%

Prevalence of stunting among children (%) 47.9% 43.2%

HDI Rank 146 134

% population without sustainable access to improved water source in 2000

16% 3%

Unemployment rates 3.8% (Orissa 2.4%) 5%

Source: Human Development Report 2010-2011 (UNDP and FAO 2013).

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9. This section of the report is mainly based on the baseline survey report of the Paribartan climate change and DRR programme in the Bay of Bengal implemented by Concern World Wide with funding support from EuropeAid. The survey was conducted in 2010-2011.

The 10th Plan of the Government of India has set an 8% growth target to achieve rapid reduction in income poverty and improvement in human development (UNDP, 2008). The 11th five-year-plan of Orissa targets to achieve sustainable, shared economic growth and accelerated human development (GoO, 2010). Bangladesh also sets an ambitious goal to become a middle income country by 2021 (Vision 2021). The occurrence of recent mega disasters in the coasts of Orissa and Bangladesh together with emergence of climate change as top international development agenda led these countries to reappraise their development priorities.

2.3 Context of the Study Villages9

2.3.1 Physical Features

Bangladesh is part of deltaic plains of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers, and is located on the banks of various tidal rivers and within close proximity of the sea (10 km), the land-water interface is intense in most of the Bangladesh study villages. Similarly, the villages in Orissa are located at a close proximity to Devi-Kathajodi, Brahmani and Baitarani rivers. All the rivers in both Bangladesh and Orissa coasts experience increased siltation that increases river bank erosion and flooding.

The study villages in Khulna and Satkhira districts are located within seven kilometres of the Sundarbans. Similarly, the villages in Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur are located in close proximity to the mangrove swamps and the Bhitarkanika National Park, respectively. There is no forest in or around the targeted villages of Patuakhali and Barguna.

Most of the study villages in Bangladesh are protected by embankments from high tide and cyclone storm surges. However, occasional breaches in embankments happen due to lack of proper maintenance and poor shrimp farming practices e.g. cutting embankments to drain in saline water.

2.3.2 Settlement Pattern

More than 90% households in Orissa and Bangladesh coast live within 1 km of the sea. At least half of the population in the southwest coast in Bangladesh live on the shore.

The people living outside the embankment are significantly more exposed to cyclone and tidal surge. As high as 90% study people in Orissa live outside the embankment or protection infrastructure, while the figure is much lower in Bangladesh (16%, increased from 5% found in 2010 survey). More than half of the vulnerable people live outside any type of protection infrastructure in both the coast.

Location of agricultural land determines households' exposure to climatic risk. About 80% of the surveyed households in Bangladesh do not have any agricultural land while the figure for India comes to about 71%. Land located within 1 km of the coastline is 40.6% in India and 6.3% in Bangladesh. All households in the southwest coast have agricultural lands that are located outside the embankments, and thus unprotected. In Orissa, one third of the agricultural land is not protected by embankment.

2.3.3 Livelihood Characteristics

The study examined three major sources of household income of the study population. Clearly, agricultural related activities are the major sources of income of the study households. These sources include own agriculture; daily wage in agriculture and fishing; homestead gardening;

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Table 2.2: Three Main Sources of Income of the Study Household in Orissa and Bangladesh Coast

Table 2.3: How Study Population Utilise their Land by Coast by Head of Household

collection of forest products dominate the sources of income. These sources of income are highly sensitive to climate change.

Agriculture, on own land or sharecropping, is high in Orissa (38.1% as first and 37.5% as second) compared to Bangladesh coast (only 1.7% as first and 9.3% as second). Less than a third portion of the households have their own land for cultivation (29% in Orissa and 20% in Bangladesh coast) with high gender difference. Half of the women headed households are engaged in wage income in Orissa and the figure stood close to 40% in Bangladesh. More women headed households are engaged in business in Bangladesh (16%) than Orissa.

Only 29% study households in Orissa and 20% in Bangladesh own farm land with some gender disparity within the groups. For example, in Bangladesh only 3.4% women headed households own land compared to their male counterpart (25%), while in Orissa more female headed households own land than male headed households (39%:27%). Among the farmland owners, 53% in Orissa and 17% in Bangladesh do their own cultivation. Other usages include fish or shrimp farms that dominate in Bangladesh and sharecropping that dominates in Orissa.

Sources of income

Sources of Income (%)

Orissa Coast Bangladesh Coast

1st source

2nd source

3rd source

1st source

2nd source

3rd source

Agriculture day labourer 32.5 30.1 22.9 33.3 30.9 11.5

Agriculture 38.1 37.5 16.9 1.7 9.3 7.7

Homestead Gardening .6 2.2 15.7 19.6 44.2

Fishing Labourers 18.1 11.8 16.9 25.0 17.5 5.8

Fishing-owning gear and boat

.6 2.9 12.5 5.2 1.9

Small shrimp farm and/or shrimp business .7 7.5 5.2 5.8

Forest .6 5.1 13.3 1.7 3.1 7.7

Various non-agricultural 9.4 8.2 14.4 18.3 9.2 15.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Current use of land (Multiple answer counted)

Orissa Coast (%) Bangladesh Coast (%)

Male Female Total Male Female Total

Crop cultivation 53.6 44.4 52.6 17.4 11.1 16.7

Fully mortgaged/or leased out 1.4 .0 1.3 4.3 .0 3.8 Land remain fallow 2.9 44.4 7.6 8.6 .0 7.7

Share cropping 4.3 22.2 6.4 2.9 .0 2.6

Shrimp/fish farming 2.9 0 2.6 27.5 11.1 25.6

Other .0 .0 .0 5.8 11.1 6.4

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10. In India, the 10th Plan of the government has set a high growth target of 8% to induce rapid reduction in income poverty and attain ambitious human development goals. In Bangladesh, the percentage of people below the poverty line has decreased from 70.6 percent to 32 since 1973-74. The government plans to halve the proportion of people below the poverty line by 2010.

Table 2.4: Types of fishing activities among the most vulnerable households

Table 2.5: Types of forest use activities

Among the study population who are engaged in fishing as their main source of income or do the subsistence fishing occasionally, only 12.5% in Orissa and 37% in Bangladesh have some types of fishing gears or boats. Fishing activities in both the coasts is male dominated and a few women headed households among the most vulnerable groups are engaged in fishing. However, many women are engaged in fish farms in Bangladesh as labourers (10% female headed households, among those who mentioned fishing as one of the sources of income).

A considerable number of people are dependent on forest resources in the coastal areas. Among them almost everyone goes to forest to collect non-timber products such as firewood, fish / crab, and honey. These people - living mostly in Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur in Orissa, and Khulna and Satkhira in Bangladesh - experience increasing restriction through conservation efforts by the respective governments. For example, establishment of Bhitarkanika National Park in 1975 imposed restrictions on collecting forest resources such as Kendu leaves from the mangrove forest in Orissa.

Homestead gardening e.g. vegetable, fruit production is a critical source of livelihood from nutrition point of view and was mentioned as second and third main sources of income in both coasts. More than half of the households in Bangladesh and little less than a third in Orissa mentioned about such sources. Livestock production did not come in the list of three major sources but 30% households own livestock and 53% households have poultry in their possession.

2.4 Policy and Institutional Landscape of Climate Change

There has been increasing recognition in India and Bangladesh that climate change is a threat to the poverty reduction targets10. The Tenth Five Year Plan of India has a detailed chapter on Disaster

Types of Fishing Activities

Orissa Coast Bangladesh Coast Total


% % % % % % N %

Subsistence fishing 12.5 .0 12.5 20.7 .0 20.7 19 16.7

Fish workers on wage 71.4 3.6 75.0 31.0 10.3 41.4 66 57.9

Owner of fishing gears and boat

10.7 1.8 12.5 32.8 5.2 37.9 29 25.4

Total 94.6 5.4 100.0 84.5 15.5 100.0 114 100.0

Types of forest use activities

Orissa Bangladesh


Commercial collection 8.2 12.5 8.5 5.7 4.7

As labourer with other groups 2.0 1.9 5.7 12.5 7.0

Go every day for fishing or crab collection

43.9 62.5 45.3 22.9 18.6

For firewood 78.6 87.5 79.2 31.4 12.5 27.9

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11. Disaster Management in India: a Status Report. Government of India Ministry of Home Affairs National Disaster Management Division. 12. Please see http://www.c2es.org/international/key-country-policies/india/climate-plan-summary for a summary of NAPCC13. Adaptation to climate change in India: A study on Union Budget. Center for budget and governance accountability and Oxfam India. 2009.

Table 2.6: The summary of the climate change strategies of Bangladesh and India

Management11 while policy makers in Bangladesh recognise that climate change poses a serious threat to Bangladesh's goal of becoming a middle income country by 2021. The Government of Bangladesh has dedicated two full chapters to environment, climate change and disaster risk in the Sixth Five Year Plan - one chapter in the Strategic Directions and Policy Framework, and one in the Sectoral Strategies, Programmes and Policies (GoB, 2011). Prior to that, following three major disasters in 2007, Bangladesh intensified its efforts to tackle climate change through development of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2009. India's first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) developed in 2008 outlined existing and future policies and programmes addressing mitigation and adaptation. (GoI 2011, quoted from ActionAid undated). The state government of Orissa also formulated a climate change action plan in 2010.

Agriculture and food security are enshrined in the climate change strategies of Orissa, India and Bangladesh that are presented in following table:

At the implementation level, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) launched a network project called 'National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA)' with a view to enhance resilience of Indian agriculture to climate change and climate vulnerability through strategic research and technology demonstration. The research on adaptation and mitigation covers crops, livestock, fisheries and natural resource management (GoI 2011a). Similarly in Bangladesh, substantial amount of resources are already made available through various funding mechanisms for coastal protection, research and expansion, climate resilient crop, food preservation and infrastructure development. The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management in Bangladesh has so far invested USD 10 billion on disaster management in the country (BCCSAP, 2009) while NAPCC claims that the the spending of the Central Government of India on adaptation exceeds 2.6% of GDP as of 2006-07 (Ganguly, K and Panda G.R. 200913).

There have also been efforts by non-state development actors - UN, NGOs and donors - to engage in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in both the countries. National and international NGOs, Red Cross System and UN agencies are increasingly integrating climate change into their disaster risk reduction efforts in both the coasts, and specifically in all the study locations.

Bangladesh, BCCSAP India NAPCC1 Orissa,

BCCSAP’s objective is to integrate climate change constraints and opportunities into the overall plan and programmes involving all sectors and processes for economic and social development. Prepared for 10 years (2009-2018), the document, the document emphasises on food security and agriculture, which is also among the sixth pillars of the plan.

NAPCC places core focus on energy efficiency and CO2mitigation and protection of most vulnerable as inclusive and sustainable development strategy. The strategy also focuses on climate adaptive agriculture, preservation of Himalayan ecosystem and extension of forest (expand to 33% from current 23%).

Covering 2010-2015, the Orissa Climate Change Plan mirrors the national plan. It has focus on both energy efficiency and adaptation measures such as Agricultural, Coastal Zones and Disasters, Energy, Fisheries and Animal Resources, Forestry, Health, Industry, Mining, Transport, Urban Planning and Water Resources).

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A recent study on public expenditure on climate change by the GoB's Planning Commission identified five funding mechanisms for delivering climate change activities in Bangladesh. These include: GoB's Development budget; GoB's non-development budget; Bangladesh climate change Trust Fund (BCCTF) created by GoB with its own resources; Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience fund (BCCRF) created by development partners (led by DFID) for GoB; and Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR).

At regional level, the SAARC Environment Ministers meeting in Dhaka in 2008 adopted the SAARC Action Plan on Climate Change. The objectives of the Action Plan were: (a) to identify and create opportunities for activities that are achievable through regional cooperation and south-south support in terms of technology and knowledge transfer; (b) to provide impetus for regional level action plan on climate change through national level activities; and (c) to support the global negotiation process of UNFCCC such as Bali Action Plan through a common understanding or elaboration of the various negotiating issues to effectively reflect the concerns of SAARC Member States. The thematic areas of the action plan include adaptation to climate change, actions for climate change mitigation, technology transfer, finance and investment, education and awareness programme, management of impacts and risks associated with climate change, and capacity building for international negotiations14 . The 16th SAARC Summit held in Thimpu, Bhutan in April 2010 was dedicated to the theme of climate change.

The policy measures are far from being adequate to address the challenges of climatic risks, and their impact on food security at the Bay of Bengal level. There is no Bay of Bengal wide regional cooperation framework working on climate change. The BIST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand Economic Cooperation), formed in 1997, is a new sub-regional grouping focused mainly on trade. The absence of a multilateral framework on sharing water of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin may exacerbate climate change impact on food security, particularly in dry and monsoon seasons.

14. SAARC Workshop: Climate Change and Disasters - Emerging Trends and Future Strategies, 21-22 August 2008, Kathmandu, Nepal, SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi.

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33

Reflections on the hypothesis …

Despite significant developmental progress in the post-colonial time, fragility of livelihood of the most vulnerable people has not changed much. Still majority of them remains landless and production is highly susceptible to fluctuating climate variability and disasters. The rural livelihood is predominantly rain-fed and sensitive to environment and climate change. Gender discrimination, despite improvement, is a significant obstacle for women to continue their livelihood. A large number of people are dependent on social safety-net programmes of the governments (more discussion in Chapter 4).


Photo by: Mahmud, Map Photo Agency

Chapter 3Impact of Climate Change


Chapter 3

Figure 3.1: Percentage of people observing climate change, comparison between 2011 and 2013 data.

Impact of Climate ChangeThis chapter first presents a synthesis of the available evidence and prediction of climate change on selected climate variability and impacts that are highly relevant to food security. These variables include temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and disaster risk. Following the research framework, an analysis is presented on how these changes affect the livelihood and food security of various livelihood and population groups. Findings from the primary data are weaved with those from secondary literature review.

3.1 An Overview

The World Bank estimated that agriculture, on which majority of the population depends, will be severely affected by changes in the monsoon dynamics caused by changes in the conditions in the Bay of Bengal and the Himalayas (World Bank, 2013). Similar concerns are emphasised by The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change in their final report. It says that 'modest climate change will lead to decreases in agricultural production in some places (notably places already hot and dry)' (IAASTD, 2009). Even a 2°C increase is not risk free (Moss et al, 2008). Climate change is likely to change rainfall patterns, resulting in shorter growing seasons in the future, particularly for subsistence farmers in Africa and parts of South Asia who rely on rain-fed agriculture (WB, 2008). High temperature extremes are likely to affect yields of rice, wheat, maize and other important crops negatively impacting food security (World Bank, 2013).

People in the study locations in Orissa and coastal Bangladesh already started observing climate change. Compared to the baseline survey in 2011, there is a significant increase in the number of people reported to have observed such changes in both the coasts.

2011

2013

120

100

80

60

40

20

0Orissa Bangladesh

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15. South Asia's average per capita water availability, defined by the sum of internal renewable water sources and natural incoming flows divided by population size, is less than 2,500m³ annually (ESCAP 2011); this is compared to a worldwide average of almost 7,000m³ per

capita per year. In rural areas of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, 10 percent or more of the population still remain without access to an adequate amount of water, even if defined at the relatively low level of 20 liters per capita per day for drinking and other household purposes (World Bank, 2013).

3.2 Temperature

Temperature is closely associated with agriculture and food production. The evidence suggests that temperature is increasing in South Asia at large including both the study countries (World Bank, 2013). According to IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, all of Asia is likely to warm in this century and warming in South Asia is likely to be above the global average at around 3.3ºC (Christensen et al, 2007).

There was a general rising trend of surface temperature of 0.50 C+/- 0.10 C in the region in the past century (World Bank, 2013). India's temperature in 2011 was the 9th warmest on record (ibid). The Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) projects a temperature rise of between 1.7° C and 2° C over the next 20 years which, according to them, would lead to a decline in farm production. During the three decades from 1971 to 2007, annual mean temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade due to significant increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures (Kothawale et al., quoted Jain, et al. 2012). With some exception, most Indian weather stations in the south, central and western parts show rising trend of temperature (Jain et al. 2012).

Bangladesh similarly experienced moderate increase in post-monsoon and a strong warming of 0.1-0.2° C in every ten years in monsoon season (Roy, undated). In a longer term observation, the warming rate stays 0.621 ± 0.491 0C per 100 years while daily mean temperature is also increasing at a rate of 1.026 ± 0.403 0C per 100 year (ibid). The temperature in winter season (December-February) has risen at a much higher rate than that in summer season (June-August) in Bangladesh (Islam et al., 2012). Raising trend is also observed in Orissa.

Most estimates suggest that warming will continue (IPCC, 2007) and can be as high as 4° C by end of 2100 (World Bank, 2013). In the absence of adequate mitigation measures, there is a 40% chance of warming exceeding 4° C by 2100 and 10% chance of it exceeding 5° C in the same period (ibid). In the medium term, it may increase 0.9° C to 1° C by the 2020s and 1.6° C to 2° C by the 2050s. This is expected to be more pronounced from December to May with average winters in the 2050s being around 1.9-2.4° C warmer compared to summers in the 2050s being 1.4-1.8° C warmer in Bangladesh (Tanner et al, 2007).

Among the implications of warming in South Asia, the first is on crop production. Significant crop yield impacts are already being felt at 0.8° C warming (World Bank, 2013). A decrease of 10% in rice yield has been found to be associated with every 1° C increase in temperature (ADB, 2009 and IRRI, 1997) while the yield of dry season rice crops in the Philippines already decreased by 15% for each 1° C increase in the growing season mean temperature (Peng et al., 2004).

Box 3.1: Why should farmers be worried about warming?

The photosynthesis rate is the key factor in growth and yield of crop such as wheat and rice at a maximum for temperature about 22-32°C. The fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, 2007) states that even moderate increase (1-2°C) is likely to have negative impact on crop production. The World Bank also predicts the temperature thresholds to exceed more frequently with 2°C with significant consequences on crop production. A one-degree temperature rise may not have significant implications for productivity of kharif crops in India, if there is adequate rain, however, the projections of temperature rise are higher past 2030. But for the Rabi season, even a 1 degree temperature rise will severely impact production of wheat, a critical food-grain crop.

(Source: IPCC, 2007 and ActionAid, undated).

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16. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region spans an area of more than 4.3 million square kilometres in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. The region stores more snow and ice than anywhere else in the world outside the polar regions, giving its name: 'The Third Pole'. The Third Pole contains the world's highest mountains, including all 14 peaks above 8,000 metres, is the source of 10 major rivers, and forms a formidable global ecological buffer. http://www.icimod.org/?q=3487

Table 3.1: Sources of water used for agriculture by coast and type of household head

Warming will also increase water stress in the Himalayan river system and the region already experiencing water stress15. Eighty-five per cent of the dry season water flow in the Indian northern plains comes from the Himalaya's glacial often called Third Pole16. It is the source of water to nine major rivers in Asia including Ganges and Brahmaputra (ActionAid, undated). Faster melting of glaciers will result in less water in the river during dry season. This will potentially increase water stress for both agriculture and drinking purpose- and at an increase of 3°C temperature will reduce average per capita water availability by 10% (World Bank, 2013). Less water in the river system will also lead to depletion of groundwater (Winston et al., 2010), increase in salinity in the coast affecting the Boro (local high yielding variety of paddy grown in winter) production in post-monsoon Bangladesh. Bangladesh's Boro has been the shock absorber for the fluctuating production of the principal rice production i.e. Aman (traditional varieties of paddy grown in winter) and Aus (traditional varieties of paddy grown in winter) caused by flood and cyclone (ibid).

The study population in both coasts is dependent on fragile sources water for their livelihood, and virtually not connected to irrigation facilities. Tube-wells, ponds and open water such as rivers and canals, are the major sources of water for the agriculture and livestock (Table 3.1)

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal, which is closely associated with frequency and magnitude of cyclone has been increasing according to the most observed datasets. The Bay is identified as one of the rapidly warming large marine ecosystems with temperature increasing by 0.04°C/year (Belkin 2009, quoted in Chowdhury et al, 2012). Analysis of data for 1870-2011 found significantly increasing trend of SST of all months over the Bay of Bengal (Chowdhury et al., 2012). Increased SST changes sea characteristics i.e. generating more storms and roughness in the sea which will affect millions of small fishing families in the Bay of Bengal (ibid). During 1985-2009, the region experienced 5.48 cyclones per year which may increase to 7.94 storms per year as predicted by a recent study (ibid). It is a significant challenge because the major fishing seasons coincide with the cyclonic season.

Main source of drinking water (single response)


Total

Male Headed

Household

Female Headed

Household

Male Headed

Household

Female Headed

Household

Tube-well 95.8 94.4 76.9 72.4 87.1

Public stand pipe 2.8 5.6 1.8

Vendor provided water 2.2 .7

Pond (open) 20.9 27.6 9.6

Others 1.4 .8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

38


Box 3.2: Fishing Community in a Warming Bay of Bengal

Fishing is one of the most ancient livelihoods in the coast of Bay of Bengal. More than 3.5 million people living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh depend on fishing and related activities for their livelihood. Similarly in Orissa significant number of households is dependent on fishing in both the sea and the coastal wetlands.

The Bay of Bengal coast is ecologically diverse and endowed with species of fish, prawn and crab. Orissa has 480km of coastline and a number of large lakes -- Chilka Lake is the largest in Asia.

Fishing community is affected by climate change by in a number of ways. The first is the cyclones that not only kill them but also destroy their livelihood and fishing gear. Second, increased sea turbulence prevents poor fishers with small boats from going to the sea. Third, decline of preferred fish species, for example, hilsha fish mentioned by fishing groups that participated in the FGDs. They also mentioned that their catch has gone down by half in the past 15 years and the number of days without fishing is increasing due to fishing ban (by the governments) in combination with increasing sea turbulence during fishing season. Small fishers in the Devi river estuary in Orissa now spend thrice the time they spent before for the same amount of catch. Some fish varieties for example khainga, chandi, pomfret, prawn, and crab suitable for small fishers to collect can no longer sustain them. According to the study participants increasing use of trawlers by big fishing companies and rising sea surface temperature have driven their main catch further offshore.

Poverty in the fishing community in the study villages is exacerbated by climate change. A successful fishing trip takes 1 to 3 days, and for that each group of fishermen borrows money from the local moneylenders at high interest rates to purchase fuel and commodities for the fishing trip. If a cyclone warning of number-3 or above (potentially dangerous) in the case of Bangladesh is sounded while they are out at sea they have to cut their trip short, and thereby losing their investment in it. This leads to a vicious cycle of rocketing credit risks and indebtedness. From the moneylenders' perspective, fishermen become too risky to give loans to. As a result, they become indebted which often leads to informal bondage under local moneylenders e.g. selling the catch to the lender at a much lower price. A recent study (Chowdhury et al, 2012) conducted in the coastal part of Bangladesh found that the fishermen are switching their livelihood from fishing to other options (as high as 70% in certain areas).

Source: FGDs in Orissa and Bangladesh; (Chowdhury et al, 2012)

17. Only some 17% of agricultural lands worldwide are irrigated, producing 40% of total cereal production (Droogers, 2001: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Working_Papers/working/WOR20.pdf )

3.3 Precipitation

Monsoon is closely associated with food festivals in South Asia which means the better the monsoon the greater the food security. Timely arrival, adequacy and regularity of the monsoon are critical for the rural economy and agriculture in South Asia. As mentioned in first chapter, erratic rainfall (over precipitation causing flooding and low precipitation causing drought) triggered almost all the famines in colonial India. Still erratic rainfall is responsible for the fluctuating crop performance today as 60% of South Asian agriculture is rain fed17.

Almost 80% of rainfall in Bangladesh comes during the monsoon (June-September) compared to 60% in Orissa (WFP, undated). In Bangladesh, the remaining 20% covers eight months of the year including the winter months when the high yielding rice Boro is grown (Windston et al, 2010). The rainfall determines the degree of food security for rural South Asians who are dependent on moisture land, water bodies and forest for their livelihoods. Orissa receives an annual mean rainfall of 1,487mm with a standard deviation of 276 mm in the past ten years that means rain fluctuates between the years (ActionAid, undated).

39


18. Rajib, M. Rahman, M. Islam AKM Mcbean E. Analyzing the Future Monthly Precipitation Pattern in Bangladesh from Multimodel Projections Using Both GCM and RCM19. Understanding climate variability and climate change. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a1247e/a1247e02.pdf

Any fluctuation in the rain may cause crop failures while flooding in both Orissa and coastal Bangladesh regularly destroys crops and associated food system. However, most observed analysis suggests changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall e.g. less rain in dry period, and intense rain or extreme precipitation events in the monsoon causing flood and destroying crops (World Bank, 2013). This has forced farmers to change their traditional cropping practices. Studies on rainfall variability continue to emerge and often different observations and projections are suggested due to methodology and data set being used. South Asia as a whole experiences a decline in rainfall while there are increases in the frequency of the most extreme precipitation events, as well as increases in the frequency of short drought periods (World Bank, 2013).

Different studies point to the likelihood of average rainfall increase in Bangladesh during the summer monsoon by around 1-4% by the 2020s, and 2-7% by the 2050s (Tanner et al, 2007). As can be seen from the range of estimated percentage increases predicted, experts are not sure about the amount of extra rainfall expected but all agree that a wetter Bangladesh is likely in the monsoon due to more rain (Pender, 2008). The annual precipitation in Bangladesh shows a rising trend between 1948 and 2009, but the trend is lower in last ten years 2002-2009 (Rajib et al,18).

Overall, the summer monsoon (June-September) rainfall in India declined by 70.9 mm during 1995-2004 (Kumar et al., 2009). This decline was much higher than 1965-1975 (39.5 mm) and 1985-1995 (7.5 mm) periods in spite of having only one drought year since 1995. As more than 80% of the rainfall in India occurs during summer-monsoon, it is expected to have a major influence on the vegetation cover and crop production. Based on the analysis of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index a decline of vegetation after 1995 is already evident (ibid). For Orissa, according to WFP, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is a greater problem, and there is large district wise variation that can explain occurrence of flood in some parts and drought in others (WFP, undated). Instability of food production in Orissa is largely caused by fluctuating rainfall and other climatic extremes such as cyclone and flood (WFP, 2002), as only 25% of Orissa crop is irrigated (GoI, Ministry of Agriculture, quoted in WFP undated).

Climate change projections show increased rainfall during monsoon season and declining rainfall in winter months (Table 3.1). Though rainfall is projected to increase in monsoon, its variability may increase significantly causing more intense rainfall and/or longer dry spells. Most of the climate models19 estimate that precipitation will increase during the summer monsoon . Precipitation in Bangladesh might continue to increase in all months in the future years; and the percentage of increment is expected to be higher for dry and pre-monsoon compared to the monsoon season (Rajib et al, 2011). Bangladesh is likely to experience intense and frequent heavy precipitation events while wet days will decrease towards the end of 21st century (ibid).

Agriculture in the coastal Bay is particularly vulnerable to erratic rainfall due to limited irrigation infrastructure. Only 25% croplands in Orissa is irrigated while flood caused major crop failure over the last 20 years in coastal Bangladesh (BBS, quoted Windston et al, 2010) as well as water stress during dry period. But, annual precipitation is projected to increase by up to 30% in a 4°C world and it may decrease during the dry season. Indian drought of 1987 and 2002-2003 affected more than 50% of the crop areas and in 2002 food grain production declined by 29 million tons compared to the previous year. Major droughts in the states of Jharkhand, Orissa, and Chattisgarh, which occur approximately every 5 years, are estimated to affect around 40% of rice production (Wassmann et al, 2009).

40


Box 3.3: Rice and rainfall

Rice is susceptible and most sensitive crop to climate change for a number of reasons. First, according to International Rice Research Institute, rainless days for a week in upland rice-growing areas and for about two weeks in lowland rice-growing areas can significantly reduce yields. In Orissa during 2001 and 2002, there was a record production of over 7.5 million metric tons of food grains which declined to about half in the following year due to a severe drought that adversely affected all the 30 districts. Second, the rice season overlaps with drought, flooding and cyclone seasons in the Bay of Bengal region. Climate change also brought changes in the biophysical environment such as salinity intrusion affecting some coastal regions of the Bay of Bengal.

These two countries have two to three major cropping seasons (depending on local irrigation facilities and market opportunity). The Kharif runs through May to September and Rabi, the winter crop season, lasts till October and November, which is conditioned on moisture retained in the soil from the monsoons. The Southwest monsoon is responsible for nearly 50% of the food grains production and 65% of the oilseeds in India (ActionAid, undated). Irrigation facilities are weak in both the countries: only 30% in Orissa compared to the national Indian average of 44%.

Theoretically, the climate change will not only decline the food availability but also ability of the people to access food (through reduction of livelihood opportunities). The Orissa Economic Survey report shows that the share of employment for cultivators and agricultural workers has sharply declined between 1991 and 2001 (74% in 81 census; 73% in 91 census; 57% in 2001 census), which according to the report can be explained by fluctuating rainfall (GoO, 2013).

With increased frequency of disasters the realisation of predicted climate change will have an impact on food security.

Source of chart: GoO, 2013.

Fluctuating agricultural growth in Orissa, mainly caused by erratic rainfall and disasters.

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

Year

Agriculture Industry Services

Ann

ual G

row

th R

ate

in P

erce

ntag

e (%

)

40

30

20

10

-10

-20

-30

-40

0

41


Box 3.4 Sea coming closer - an evidence of sea level rise.

The coastal people in the study locations already experience sea level rise as predicted by various studies. FGDs conducted in Orissa revealed that the sea has 'defied [its] shores'. For example, villagers from Balijori, Orissa, mentioned that it used to take about half an hour to walk from their village to the sea 15 years ago, but now it takes less than half the time. Similarly, the sea was 2km away from the mangrove forest to the east of their neighbourhood, but now it has encroached more than half of the forest. As a result, sand is piling up near the village affecting soil fertility with negative impact on banana plantation due to strong winds. With the sand encroaching the grazing lands, the cattle do not have enough food.

Similarly in Bangladesh, the participants in Shyamnagar upazila (sub-district) mentioned that water has become more abrasive and the tide more irregular in the past 15 years. The tidal water level has increased by 3-5 feet. The Kholpetua river steadily erodes the bank of Gabura. Tidal water had never come into the neighbourhood, but now it comes in to people's houses. In Ambaliatoli, Barguna district high tide inundates people's homes and fields more frequently in the months of Chaitra-Boishakh (i.e. mid-March to mid-May) than before.

Source: FGDs conducted by the study team.

3.4 Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise (SLR) is a reality now. There will be an average 9cm - 88cm SLR by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2007). The Bay of Bengal coast is highly vulnerable to SLR because most of the settlements and lands are located on the shoreline which is already low-lying, and often on the big delta. Bangladesh has a very low and flat topography except the northeast and southeast regions: about 10% of the country is hardly one meter above the sea level, and one third is under tidal excursions (Windston et al, 2010).

At a global level, SLR was about 20cm in 2010, and the South Asian coastlines located close to the equator have shown stronger increase compared to high latitudes (World Bank, 2013). SLR is already observed in the coast of Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. Historical data during 1920-1999 shows that it was the highest in Gulf of Kutchh and the coast of West Bengal, which is next to Orissa (Roy, undated). It has been between 1.06mm and 1.75mm/year over the last 40 years (ibid). Data from Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) suggests that SLR is 5.6mm/year at the Hiron Point (Windston et al., 2010). Sea level rise is occurring more rapidly than previously projected and a rise of as much as 50 centimetres by the 2050s may be unavoidable as a result of past emissions (World Bank, 2013). Limiting warming to 20C may limit global sea level rise to about 70cm by 2100 (ibid).

The impact of SLR is predicted to be multiple. It would cause inundation, salinity intrusion, and overall reduction in agricultural production (Pender, 2008), that would most likely cause out migration at large scale. For instance, an estimated 13 million people in Bangladesh will be impacted by a one metre SLR (Windston et al., 2010). A 27cm SLR projected for 2040 in Bangladesh - in combination with storm surges from periodic cyclones such as cyclone Sidr - could inundate an area more than 80% larger than the area inundated at present by similar events (ibid). Using three scenarios of future SLR of 15, 27, and 62 cm, 6%, 10%, 20% areas of Bangladesh respectively will be flooded (ibid). The potential impacts of a one metre sea level rise include inundation of 5,763 square kilometres in India (TERI, 1996). An ADB study - assuming absence of protection infrastructure - predicts that 7.1 million people will be affected with large scale out migration in India (ibid). Agricultural production in Bangladesh may decline up to 25% as calculated in several models (Cline, 2007).

42


20. According to SRDI's soil salinity report-2009, lands categorized as Level-5 (representing soil with very strongly saline with some strongly saline category) was 157,088 ha in 2000 which has increased to 198,486 ha just within nine years.

Table 3.2 : Sources of drinking water by coast and by the head of household.

3.5 Salinity Intrusion

Although salinity in coastal regions has been a common feature, in recent years increased salinity is experienced by coastal population who often term it as 'poison'. It causes multitude of impacts ranging from crop failures to shortage of drinking water along with associated health hazards and biodiversity loss. Salinity occurs due to the intrusion of seawater during high tides through surface channels, creeks and rivers particularly during the dry season, but the salt concentration decreases with freshwater added in the wet season (Paris et al, 2010).

In Bangladesh, there has been an increase in the salinity affected agricultural land by 22% since 1973 (SDRI, 2009). The level 5 (very strong saline area) category of land has increased by 79%20 since 2000 (ibid). About 20 million people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh are already affected by salinity in their drinking water (World Bank, 2013). Salinity has also affected the coast of Orissa where at least 11.8% land has already become saline (Planning Commission of India, 1981). The groundwater in the coast is contaminated by saline water and it extends up to 15 Km inwards from the shore of Bay of Bengal (Paris et al., 2010). Salinity reaches its highest during April-May due to the increase in temperature from February onward. Because of poor pre-monsoon shower, in some years, increased soil salinity still affects crop production beyond April-May (Paris et al, 2010).

For drinking water, tube-wells are the main sources while slightly less than a third is dependent on pond. Such practices can be explained by the intensity of salinity in the ground water.

Specific predictions on salinity are not available. However, most estimations suggests that it would increase in the context of change in precipitation, decreasing dry season water flow, increasing SLR and increasing temperature (Wassmann et al., 2009). It is more likely in the coastal part of Bangladesh due to human factors such as shrimp culture as well as limited freshwater inflow through the major river system caused by withdrawal of water upstream. The impact of salinity is already changing the poverty map of Bangladesh making affected districts a newer poverty pocket (Daily Star, 2011). It is also reducing soil fertility e.g. over 250,000 hectares of fertile land in coastal Orissa (CSE, 1998). It is responsible for yield stagnation (or decrease) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (Ladha et al, 2003). Winter season Boro crop of Bangladesh has already significantly reduced in the southwest coast due to the presence of saline water (Windston et al., 2010). The poor people in the coast are already forced to pay for drinking water, something they had never done before.



Total

Male Headed

Household

Female Headed

Household

Male Headed

Household Female Headed

Household

Tube-well 98.4% 100.0% 75.0% 77.8% 87.1%

Protected dug well .8% .4%

Unprotected spring .8% .4%

Vendor provided water 1.0% .4%

Pond (open) 24.0% 22.2% 11.8%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

43


Box 3.5: Effects of salinity intrusion on homestead gardens.

Homestead gardening is an important source of income or expenditure saving for the rural households in India and Bangladesh. It is also the most important source of nutrition for the poor people in the Bay of Bengal region. In Bangladesh, homestead gardening makes up about 16% of household income (CPD, 2004). About half of the households in Satkhira district have integrated gardens (e.g. small ponds, poultry or vegetable garden) on their homestead, 15% of which are sufficiently productive and diverse (GoB, 2012).

Homestead based production is getting difficult due to increasing disasters. The cyclone Sidr in 2007 destroyed homestead vegetable gardens of all affected households. Again, cyclone Aila did the same and people were not able restart gardening even in five years. Homestead gardens are more of women's responsibilities and, thus, when these gardens are lost, it is women who lose their key socioeconomic footing. Under these circumstances, infants, young children, and pregnant and lactating women are vulnerable to malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, especially since their nutritional requirements are relatively high, but they are least able to negotiate their fair share of food within the household.

The villagers in Bagapatia, Gartta, Gupti, Talchua, Kaitha and Badakot in Orissa noted up to a 70% decrease in homestead garden productivity due to prolonged water logging, salinity intrusion into land and pond water, and drought during the dry season. Small and marginal farmers as well as landless day labourers cannot afford to buy vegetables from the market.

Source: FGDs conducted by the study team.

3.6 Disaster Risk

The coast of Bay of Bengal is the most vulnerable region to disaster risk of all forms e.g. cyclones, floods, tsunamis and tidal surges. The coast experienced some of the deadliest disasters in recent past. Major cyclones that took place include Bhola 1970 cyclone killing over half a million people, cyclone 1991 in Bangladesh that killed 150,000 people and Orissa super cyclone in 1999 killing 10,000 people (Sharma et al., 2000). The Indian Ocean tsunami hit the coast in 2004 and killed at least 40,000 people (CNN, 2005). Deaths in India and Bangladesh currently account for 86% of global mortalities from cyclones even though only 15% of all tropical cyclones affect this region (World Bank, 2013). In recent years, weather related disasters alone affected more than 750 million people which is 75% of the regional total (World Bank, undated).

Bangladesh and India already top UNDP's list of countries exposed to high cyclonic mortality risks i.e. 75.5% in Bangladesh and 10.8% in India (UNDP, 2008). Nicholls et al (1995) estimates that 42% of the nearly 1.9 million cyclone-related deaths in the past two centuries occurred in Bangladesh and over 27% occurred in India; while Orissa alone experienced 27% of total cyclone landfall in India (Karmakar 1998). It is estimated that in the states of Jharkhand, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh, major droughts that occur approximately every five years negatively impact around 40% of agricultural production (World Bank, 2013).

With climate change, frequency of cyclones during November and May over the North Indian Ocean has increased twofold in the past 122 years (Singh, Khan, & Rahman, 2000). People's exposure to cyclone is most likely to increase with climate change. Using the Bay of Bengal in a hydrodynamic model, the World Bank estimates that cyclone exposed areas in Bangladesh will increase by 26% and the affected population will grow as high as 122% by 2050 (World Bank, 2010).

44


Box 3.6: Extreme weather events and crop production.

The major cropping seasons overlap with the drought, cyclone and flooding seasons in the coast of Bay of Bengal. Since 1970, the coast experienced nearly 20 mega cyclones (Karmakar, 1998). These cyclones (and floods) badly hit overall crop production. An analysis of rainfall in Orissa for the 1965-1991 period indicates that, except four years during the entire period, the state was affected by natural disasters every year (DIPS Communication Centre, 1993). National Institute of Rural Development - NIRD data (1999) show that between 1964/65 and 1988/89, food grain production in the state was affected by floods, cyclones, drought or a combination of these for at least 15 years.

The Orissa super cyclone destroyed 1.35 million hectares of paddy crop and 0.28 million hectares of non-paddy crop (Sharma et al., 2000). During 1970-2004, Bangladesh lost an estimated amount of over half a million hectares of crop land. The cyclone Sidr of 2007 hit the coast of Bangladesh and part of West Bengal, India causing an estimated damage to crop livestock and fisheries worth US Dollar half a billion (GoB, 2008). Again, cyclone Aila hit the same coast in May 2009 causing destruction of 350,000 acres of cropland and death of 100,000 livestock (GoB, 2010). The salinity brought by cyclone Aila was the main reason why farmers were not able to grow crop even after five years.

3.7 Observed Climate Change by the Study Population

As mentioned in Table 3.1 earlier, there is an increase in the number of people observing climate change in both the coasts. These people mentioned climatic hazards such as flooding, cyclone and drought, salinity, erosion, temperature and high tide. There is some regional variation in the observation. Using severity scale (brown bars in the following chart), in Bangladesh and Orissa coast the frequency of cyclone, salinity intensity, high tides was mentioned above 40% times in multiple count scale.

Agriculture and total GDP growth trends: Bangladesh 1975-2008(dotted years are major disaster years)

Source: Winston H Yu et al, 2010; Chowdhury et al. 2012; FAO Technical paper 409; UN, 2010

1975

76 77

78

79

1980

81

82

83

84

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1990

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15 100

90

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10

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10

5

0

-5

-10

An

nu

al G

DP

gro

wth

rat

e (%

)

Shar

e o

f to

tal G

DP

(%

)

Aricultural GDP growth

Aricultural GDP share

Total GDP growth

45


Figure 3.2: Observed climate change by coast.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Bangladesh Coast (%)

Orissa Coast (%)

Increase in the intensity salinity in land

Increased of salinity in water

Frequent, intensity and early flood

Increased in drought condition

Rough sea during fishing season

Increase in River/coastal erosion

Increase freqency of Heavy tide

Surface water dried up

Insufficient Rainfall

Irregular Rainfall

Increased frequency of cyclone

Sea level raised

Temperatures increased

46


47


Comparing to colonial time, livelihood fragility of the most vulnerable people remains similar even today, and is highly sensitive to day-to-day changes in climate variability. Weather extremes that triggered some of the great famines in colonial time are likely to be more frequent causing reduction of crop production at household and national levels. With climate change, rainfall pattern is now more erratic than the colonial past. Climate change brings some additional threats (e.g. temperature and sea level) to food security. The governments' ability to invest in social safety net to maintain food security of the most vulnerable people is most likely to be limited in the coming decades due to reduction of GDP, and uncertainty in the international food market. Although more studies are needed to understand the situation in India, it would certainly be a case in Bangladesh. Humanitarian aid is also most likely to be exhausted with increasing frequency of disasters.


Photo by: Shafiqul Alam Kiron, Map Photo Agency

Chapter 4Implications of Climate Change for

Livelihood and Food Security


Chapter 4

Figure 4.1: Percentage of households mentioning decline of production over the last 10 years by coast.

Implications of Climate Change for Livelihood and Food Security4.1 Implications for Livelihood and Food Security

The entire study population (100% in both coasts) reported to have experienced decrease in production of paddy and other crops, fish catch, forest products and livestock due to various reasons including climate change related factors (Fig. 4.1). These resulted in not only food insecurity for the households, but also increased insecurity among the small farmers in the crop production. This is also an indication of increasing reliance on market for accessing food.

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Paddy Other Crop Vagetables Fish catch(sea and rever)

Homesteadgradening

LIvestock Forest Product

Increase Decrease

Loss of production (Orissa Coast)

100

80

60

40

20

0

Paddy Other Crop Vagetables Fish catch(sea and rever)

Homesteadgradening

LIvestock Forest Product

Increase Decrease

Loss of production (Bangladesh Coast)

50


Box 4.1: Small farmers losing interest in agriculture.

Small farmers constitute the backbone of agriculture in Bangladesh and India. Close to 94% of Indian farmers are considered to be small and marginal holding no more than 0.4 hectares of land according to the most recent agriculture census (GoI 2012a). The Sixth Five Year Plan of Bangladesh reports an increase in the trend of farming households but with ever-decreasing size of farms (GoB, 2013).

Climate change is already exacerbating the structural inequality in the farming system. Market price of crop, high input cost, existing sharecropping system and deteriorating land productivity reduce the ability of poor households to adapt climate change. These resulted in ever decreasing interest of people in agriculture. Cultivable land is also decreasing. In Orissa, people lease land on advance payment which means the landowner does not share the burden of crop loss due to various weather-related events which, according to them, is increasing day by day. In the Balijori village of Baramundali Panchayat in Orissa, over 300 acres of land used to be cultivated before the 1999 Orissa super cyclone. Since then, together with successive floods in 2002, 2005 and 2007, saline water inundated the fields for half the year. Now farmers can only cultivate 40 acres of land even after draining saline water regularly (according to FGDs). The traditional farming practices which used to work against the regular drought can no longer be practised. For example, lack of rainfall before Raja Sankranti in June has meant that cow dung cannot be mixed with water and applied to the land anymore.

Labour price has gone down due to the decline of demand for agricultural labour threatening more than half of Orissa's total workforce. As a result, the farmers opt for non-farm livelihoods e.g. migration rather than continuing with sharecropping. More than 30 million people in India are seasonal migrant labourers, and Orissa's share is 2.5 million (http://orissamigration.blogspot.com/2012/07/extension-of-icds-service-to-children.html). Consequently, a lot of land remains fallow. The Orissa Economic Survey 2009-10 shows a sharp decline in the share of cultivators and agricultural workers in overall employment scenario (GoO, 2013). It also suggests that the yield rate of main crops such as paddy and pulses has remained stagnant below the national average per hectare despite rapid expansion of high yielding varieties.

Figure 4.2: Resons for decline of production.

Figure 4.2 presents reasons for the decline of crop production of the study households. Other specific causes for other production can be found in the detailed analysis tables in Annex 2. Clearly, both climatic and non-climatic factors are responsible for the decline, but climatic factors play significant role over the non-climatic factors. Close to half of the households mentioned that they have lost interest in agriculture (note most of them are small holding farmers or sharecroppers).

Orissa Bangladesh Total

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0Decreased

land fertilityIncreased

agriculturalcost

SeasonalInundation

Waterlogging

Decreasedseasonal job

Disaster Increasecost ofinputs

Price gonedown

Increasedhardship

Loss ofinterest inagriculture

Labour Crisis

51


While the most vulnerable households experience decreasing livelihoods opportunities and production, most macro data suggest growth in food production in larger South Asia. Per capita availability of cereals has also increased in the region from the 1980s till about 2002 (FAO 2002, cited in Ramachandran, 2008). Yet a large number of people suffer from food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition. Nearly 17% of Bangladesh's population is undernourished as of 2012 (FAO, 2012). Over the last 15 years, per capita availability of cereals and pulses has declined in India (Mitra, 2010), and the poorest 30% people can afford intake of only about 1,600 kcals per day against the standard 2,200 kcal requirement (ibid).

Widespread hunger among the most vulnerable households is evident, and at least of the 30% study households experience hunger round the year or for some months. Using severity of food insecurity scale, the study also found significant coastal differences. Hunger round the year, which is the bottom of the scale, is not reported in Orissa while 10% households in Bangladesh experienced the same condition. About 30% Orissa households reported to have adequate food round the year, which is the top at the scale, but none in Bangladesh reported to belong to that scale. This situation can be explained by large coverage of social safety net in India that also covers the entire study population in Orissa (i.e.100%).

Chart Source: GoO, 2013.

5829 58

45

5680

5796

5739

5691

5654

5624

5604

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

5850

5800

5750

5700

5650

5600

5550

5500

5450

In 0

00' H

a.

Small farmers losing interest in agriculture

52


21. http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i3084e/i3084e18.pdf

Figure 4.3: Percentage of people experiencing food insecurity by severity scale.

Most crop models suggest negative impact on rice crop due to the effects climate change (Windston, 2010). As a result, per capita calorie availability would further deteriorate significantly with climate change when total crop production is projected to increase by 60% without climate change (World Bank, 2013). For Bangladesh, yield could potentially be reduced by 17-28% for rice and 31-68% for wheat (Karim et al, 1999) and 10-40% loss in crop production in India by 2080-2100 (cited in ActionAid, undated). Climate change may worsen malnutrition by directly affecting agricultural yields and worsening crop growing conditions in areas already experiencing food insecurity (Parry et al, 2005).

Bangladesh, a food importing country, imports food grains in large volume mostly after major disasters. With the predicted crop decline in most of the rice growing regions, it would be increasingly difficult for Bangladesh to import food because of domestic food situation in the exporting countries. The rice belt - i.e. South and Southeast Asia - is already threatened by climate change (Masutomi et al., 2009). Predictions show that there may be a further decrease of 3.8% in rice production in Southeast Asia (Murdiyarso, 2000). By 2100, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam are projected to experience a potential fall of about 50% in rice yield (Suzanne, et al, undated21). The rice yield decline would range from 34% in Indonesia to 75% in the Philippines (Zhuang et al, 2010). This means, there is likelihood of serious stress in international rice market resulting in market volatility and price hike like that of 2007. This was the year, when Bangladesh's food production was seriously hampered by two floods and cyclone Sidr. India - Bangladesh's traditional rice importing country - also imposed ban on export of non-basmati rice due to severe drought and as a measure to safeguard internal market from global food crisis (Ganguly and Gulati, 2013). Repetition of such a situation will affect the poorer section of the population the most because rural marginal farmers procure more than 80% of their consumption needs from the market and arrange the remaining 20% from own production compared to large farmers who source around 80% of their consumption needs from own production (Raihan, 2013).

Social safety net and humanitarian aid have been the key drivers of the government and humanitarian communities to prevent mass starvation in recent years. This is an indication that more people require state support to be food secure. In Orissa, already 47% people stay below the poverty line which was

Bangladesh Coast

Orissa Coast

Adequate foodround the year

Some foodinsecunity round

the year

Food insecunity insome months

Hunger in somesome months

Hunger round theyear

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

53


suggested to revise upward to 84.47% by an expert committee of the Rural Development Ministry (The Indian Express, 2009). There is an increasing trend of spending on social safety net in both India and Bangladesh (see Fig 4.4). With the projected loss of US$ 26 billion in agricultural sector due to climate variability by 2050 and general economy wide loss of US$ 121 billion to GDP, it is likely to reduce the ability of the government to invest in safety net programmes (Winston H. Yu, 2010).

4.2 Impact on Women

It is now widely acknowledged that climate change will further worsen the existing pattern of gender discrimination in South Asia causing poor women to become further marginalised. Discrimination against women is high in India while literacy rate among women is only 50% (Mitra, 2010). Poverty is gendered in Bangladesh and women are the poorest of the poor (Nasreen, 2004). Although public and NGO led development initiatives increasingly target to reach the women head households, their engagement with social associations remain limited to NGO activities. These households are more associated with non-NGO type of social and community based organisations in Orissa than in Bangladesh where more than 90% are only engaged as NGO beneficiaries. Livelihoods of the women headed households are also more fragile, insecure and sensitive to climate change.

The first round of this study documented a range of specific impacts on women e.g. loss in livelihoods, increase in hardship, deterioration of reproductive health due to less intake of food and water, increase in violence against women during and after a disaster, marginalisation in labour market, girls being dropped out from school, and increase in unplanned migration and trafficking of women and girls. Some of the livelihood related impacts have been documented in this round of the study (Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.4: Trend in spending on safety net programmes in Bangladesh.

Source: Sixth Five Year Plan, 2012, GoB.

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

% of Expenditure

% of Expenditure

% of GDP

% of GDP

54


Figure 4.5: Impact of Production Decline on Women and Girls..

Gender discrimination makes women more vulnerable to disasters. Almost 100% female-headed households in India and 73% in Bangladesh believe that their households are not prepared to face disasters. Whereas 80% male-headed households in India and 59% in Bangladesh feel that they are not prepared to face a disaster.

Women make an increasingly larger proportion of contribution to the local economy, and women are getting involved in entrepreneurial roles such as farming and businesses (although less evident in Orissa compared to Bangladesh). While women in general perform 60% of all agricultural tasks at household level and they account for 34% of principal agricultural workers, they lack land entitlements, access to credit and market linkages that are needed for their livelihoods (Balakrishnan, 2005). It is clearly evident in the study villages where only a low percentage of women headed households own productive land in both the costs (please see sub-section 2.3.4 for comprehensive analysis). These resulted in women-headed households taking up low paid and hazardous livelihoods (more than half are wage labourers) available in various seasons and are based on common property resources. When wage rate gets dropped during lean time, more than 80% women get less opportunity to work, while 23% reported to receive less wage (significantly high in Bangladesh). The situation of women taking up greatest burden when households' production declines is evident for all other cases such as livestock, fishing and collection of forest products (see detailed analysis tables in Annex 2).

The poor women are taking the greatest burden in providing security for their families as they engage in risky livelihood options as observed in many villages in the study locations. While most women catch fish fry in rivers, certain others migrate to metropolitan areas to work in garment factories that increase not only their physical stress but also their social insecurity.

Bangladesh Coast

Orissa Coast

90.00%

80.00%

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

00.00%Increasehardship

Increaseworking hours

Adoptinghazardous work

Migrating Less time forchildren

55


The traditional culture in South Asia dictates the household food hierarchy i.e. women tend to prioritise feeding their husbands and children (with priority to male children) over their higher nutritional requirements or often are unable to negotiate their fair share of food. As a result, they are more likely to be malnourished. In India, 45-60% of women of reproductive age and 80% of pregnant women are underweight (Mitra, 2010).

Box 4.2: Intra-household food distribution.

Gender disparity within households also leads to severe nutritional deficiencies amongst women especially in developing countries. For example, in Bangladesh the nutritional intake among women is 88% compared to that of men. The prevalence of anaemia in women of 13-39 years is the highest in South Asia. Similar results were found by Helen Keller International's Nutritional Surveillance System in Indonesia. Following the economic crisis in 1998 there was a decline in the nutritional status of mothers but less so among their children. Mothers in Bangladesh tend to give priority to feeding other family members, particularly children and husbands, rather than themselves when access to food is poor. This may explain why floods affected the nutritional status of mothers, but not of their children. It is also possible that relief efforts better targeted children. Findings from the 1998 flood in Bangladesh and 1998 economic crisis in Indonesia indicate that mothers' Body Mass Index (BMI) is sensitive to changes in access to food and is an early indicator of household food insecurity.

Source: Nutritional Surveillance Project (NSP) of Helen Keller International (HKI) and the Institute of Public Health Nutrition - IPHN (2003); Mitra, A. (2011).

56


57


Climate change clearly exacerbates the existing gender based inequality. Increased workload and deteriorating livelihoods limit women-headed households to make investments in developmental activities such as education. The first round of this study noted that women in most study communities lead household or community to recovery from disaster loss but their capacity is least utilised at institutional and policy levels (Alam, et al., 2011). Such discrimination may continue - if not worsen - in accessing adaptation resources e.g. funds, technology, skills and agricultural inputs which means women are most likely to experience bigger hurdles to adapt to climate change. Safety and security of women may also deteriorate in the projected migration scenario under climate change.


Photo by: Sadia Hossain, Concern Worldwide

Chapter 5Conclusions and

Policy Implications


Chapter 5

Conclusions and Policy Implications

This chapter presents a set of concluding reflections of the authors using the study hypothesis presented in the first chapter. This chapter also presents a set of key priorities for the Government of India, the State Government of Orissa, and the Government of Bangladesh as well as agencies engaged in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

i. The way poor people access and produce their food today has already been stressed by various factors such as environmental degradation, decline of per capita land holding, and increasing cost of input. Most of the past climate change analyses and predictions considered only the modern production systems and overlooked different informal ways and means for the poor people to grow and access food. Therefore, further climate change research is required utilising livelihood wide approaches considering both modern and traditional forms.

ii. Poor and marginalised people's livelihoods are historically sensitive to the changes in the weather and environment on a day-to-day basis. Such sensitivity and related vulnerability - under the faster climate change scenarios - pose a serious risk to their livelihood and food security.

iii. Many of the key contextual causes that were prevalent during the colonial famines still exist including inequalities in the society, and constrains in access to resource (e.g. land, water body, forest, etc). These factors will worsen the impacts of climate change and further exacerbate inequalities. The authors believe that the success of adaptation measures will be dependent on the effectiveness (of the measures) in addressing these inequalities and constraints.

iv. The return of mass starvation (RMS) resulting from climate change is a genuine risk in the Bay of Bengal region. However, due to resource limitations, this study was not able to test the hypothesis with enough rigour. Still, it remains a highly credible hypothesis important for the governments and policy makers to pay serious attention to. The authors are convinced that the RMS is preventable; and is conditional to timeliness and effectiveness of the adaptation measures at scale. It will also depend on the scale and intensity of the mitigation measures to prevent further warming. The other key success factor will be to strengthen cooperation at sub-regional (e.g.

60


SAARC), regional (e.g. forming a group among the rice belt countries), and global levels to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures coupled with addressing common and shared factors of vulnerability (e.g. water sharing), and response to food crisis.

v. The current and future food trade are yet to be analysed from the perspective of climate change. The authors agree with and support the recommendations made by the The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change that crop intensification should not undermine environmental sustainability, and mitigation measures must not reduce sustainable access to forest resources. The governments should pay greater attention to ensure that the most vulnerable people can access the adaption measures and benefits. And finally, a responsive food trade system needs to be worked out to prevent any RMS.

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Photo by: Mahmudun Nabi Khan, Concern Worldwide

Annexure


Annex 1Annex 1

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Annex 2Annex 2

Table 1.1: Main source of Income of the study participants in Orissa and Bangladesh coast

Table 1.2: Household's income by coast

Table 1.3: Physical location of house by coast

Additional TablesHousehold and Respondent Characteristics

Sources of income

Sources of Income (%)


1st source

2nd source

3rd source

1st source

2nd source

3rd source

Agriculture day labourer 32.5 30.1 22.9 33.3 30.9 11.5

Agriculture 38.1 37.5 16.9 1.7 9.3 7.7

Homestead Gardening .6 2.2 15.7 19.6 44.2

Fishing Labourers 18.1 11.8 16.9 25.0 17.5 5.8

Fishing-Owning gear and boat

.6 2.9 12.5 5.2 1.9

Small shrimp firm and/or shrimp business .7 7.5 5.2 5.8

Forest .6 5.1 13.3 1.7 3.1 7.7

various-non-agricultural 9.4 8.2 14.4 18.3 9.2 15.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Income category


Count % Count % Count %

<3000 107 66.9 52 43.3 159 56.8

3001-4000 33 20.6 29 24.2 62 22.1

4001-5000 11 6.9 23 19.2 34 12.1

5001-6000 5 3.1 12 10.0 17 6.1

6001-8000 1 .6 4 3.3 5 1.8

8001-10000 2 1.3 0 .0 2 .7

10000 and above 1 .6 0 .0 1 .4

Locations


Count % Count % Count %

Inside embankment or protected area 13 8.2 93 77.5 106 38.0

Outside embankment or protected area 141 88.7 18 15.0 159 57.0

Alongside the embankment 5 3.1 9 7.5 14 5.0

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Table 1.4: Access to land by coast

Table 1.5: How Study Population Utilise their Land by Coast by Head of Household

Table 1.6: Percentage of HH's possession of livestock by coast and gender of HH head

Table 1.7: Average number of livestock possess by coast and gender of HH head

Type of land holding

Orissa Bangladesh


Landless 47.9 38.9 46.9 24.2 34.5 26.7

Have only homestead land 24.6 22.2 24.4 50.5 62.1 53.3

Have agriculture land 27.5 38.9 28.8 25.3 3.4 20.0

Current use of land (Multiple answer counted)

Orissa Coast (%) Bangladesh Coast (%)


Crop cultivation 53.6 44.4 52.6 17.4 11.1 16.7

Fully mortgaged/or leased out 1.4 .0 1.3 4.3 .0 3.8

Land remain fallow 2.9 44.4 7.6 8.6 .0 7.7

Share cropping 4.3 22.2 6.4 2.9 .0 2.6

Shrimp/fish farming 2.9 0 2.6 27.5 11.1 25.6

Other .0 .0 .0 5.8 11.1 6.4

Type of livestock

Orissa Bangladesh


Have Cow/Bullock/Buffalo 43.7 16.7 40.6 17.6 10.3 15.8

Have Goat 16.2 5.6 15.0 17.6 10.3 15.8

Have Poultry/Ducks 26.1 5.6 23.8 57.1 41.4 53.3

Types of livestock

Orissa Bangladesh


Have Cow/Bullock/Buffalo 2.5 1.3 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.7

Have Goat 3.3 1.0 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6

Have Poultry/Ducks 5.6 2.0 5.5 6.3 6.7 6.3

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Table 1.8: Types of forest use activities

Table 1.9: Homestead Gardening Practice status by Coast by Gender of HH head

Table 1.10: Types of fishing activities among the most vulnerable households

Table 1.11: Sources of drinking water by coast and by the head of household.

Types of forest use activities

Orissa Bangladesh


Yes, for commercial collection such as honey, timber, leaves

8.2 12.5 8.5 5.7 4.7

As labourer with other groups 2.0 1.9 5.7 12.5 7.0

Go every day to catch of fish or crab 43.9 62.5 45.3 22.9 18.6

We just go for firewood 78.6 87.5 79.2 31.4 12.5 27.9

Use of homestead

Orissa Bangladesh


Do not homestead land 38.0 33.3 37.5 6.6 17.2 9.2

Have homestead but unproductive 28.9 38.9 30.0 45.1 48.3 45.8

Grow vegetable 33.1 27.8 32.5 48.4 34.5 45.0

Types of Fishing Activities



n

Subsistence fishing 12.5 .0 12.5 20.7 .0 20.7 19 16.7

Fish workers on wage 71.4 3.6 75.0 31.0 10.3 41.4 66 57.9

Owner of fishing gears and boat

10.7 1.8 12.5 32.8 5.2 37.9 29 25.4

Total 94.6 5.4 100.0 84.5 15.5 100.0 114 100.0



Total

Male Headed

Household

Female Headed

Household

Male Headed

Household

Female Headed

Household

Tube-well 95.8 94.4 76.9 72.4 87.1

Public stand pipe 2.8 5.6 1.8

Vendor provided water 2.2 .7

Pond (open) 20.9 27.6 9.6

Others 1.4 .8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

71


Table 1.12: Sources of water used for agriculture and livestock by coast and type of household head

Table 1.13: HH's association with institutions by coast and gender of HH head

Table 1.14: Who is associated with institutions by coast and gender of HH head

Main sources of water for farming and livestock

(multiple response)

Male Headed Household Female Headed Household

Orissa Bangladesh Orissa Bangladesh

% % % %

Tube well 16.3 55.0 30.8 44.4

Household connection 2.3 1.0 0 0

Ponds 62.8 69.0 46.2 66.7

Shallow tube well 2.3 0 0 0

Protected dug well 1.0 7.7 0

Rainwater collection 2.3 10.0 7.7 0

Unprotected well 0 1.0 0 0

River/Canal/Jora water 27.9 24.0 30.8 33.3



n

Yes 46.5 44.4 46.3 56.0 48.3 54.2 139 49.6

No 53.5 55.6 53.8 44.0 51.7 45.8 141 50.4



n

Self 81.8 87.5 82.4 54.9 92.9 63.1 102 73.4

Husband 6.1 12.5 6.8 13.7 10.8 12 8.6

Wife 9.1 8.1 17.6 7.1 15.4 16 11.5

Mother 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.5 2 1.4

Father 1.5 1.4 3.9 3.1 3 2.2

Brother/sister 5.9 4.6 3 2.2

Mother in law 2.0 1.5 1 .7

72


Table 1.15: Types of institute HHs are associated with by coast and gender of HH head

Table 2.1: Impact on climate change experienced by coast and gender of HH head

Table 2.2: Impact of climate changes by coast and gender of Households head

Impact of Climate Change

Type of Social/Political/Cultural institutes HH members associate

Orissa Bangladesh


NGO staff 1.5 1.4

NGO beneficiary 56.1 37.5 54.1 84.3 92.9 86.2

Official of UP/Upazilla/GP/Block 9.1 12.5 9.5 2.0 1.5

Active member of a political party 3.0 2.7 3.9 3.1

Active member of professional association/Social Ins

9.1 25.0 10.8 3.9 3.1

Active member of a cultural club 53.0 25.0 50.0 9.8 7.1 9.2

friend/relative of an active member of a GP/Block/UP/Uz

0 0 0 9.8 7.7

Other 9.1 25.0 10.8 3.9 3.1

Do you observe any climate change

impact?



n

Yes 99.3 100.0 99.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 279 99.6

No .7 .6 1 .4

Type of changes


Male headed

Female Headed

Total Male headed

Female Headed

Total

Temperatures increased 86.2 11.3 97.5 63.3 18.3 81.7

Sea level raised 50.3 7.5 57.9 23.3 12.5 35.8

Increased frequency of cyclone 30.8 3.8 34.6 50.0 11.7 61.7

Irregular Rainfall 77.4 9.4 86.8 28.3 6.7 35.0

Insufficient Rainfall 47.8 6.3 54.1 13.3 4.2 17.5

Surface water dried up 16.4 1.3 17.6 12.5 4.2 16.7

Increase frequency of Heavy tide 36.5 1.9 38.4 29.2 14.2 43.3

Increase in River/coastal erosion 86.8 10.7 97.5 60 20 80

Rough sea during fishing season 22.0 1.3 23.3 13.3 2.5 15.8 Frequent, intensity and early flood 22.7 .0 22.7 23.4 9.2 32.5

Increased in drought condition 39.0 3.8 42.8 25.8 10.8 36.7

Increased of salinity in water 45.9 5.7 51.6 45.8 17.5 63.3

Increase in the intensity salinity in land

50.3 6.3 56.6 53.3 15.0 68.3

73


Table 2.3: Impact of CC in severalty scale by Coast

Table 2.4: Loss of production by Coast

Table 2.5: Causes of crop damage by Coast

Vulnerability

Orissa Bangladesh

Some sign of change

Moderate Severe Some sign of change

Moderate Severe

Cyclone frequency 23.81 71.43 4.76 10.28 24.30 65.42

Flood frequency 49.12 50.00 0.88 23.94 61.97 14.08

Erosion 10.88 80.95 8.16 14.29 39.80 45.92

Salinity 19.61 67.97 12.42 2.86 33.33 63.81

Rainfall 26.75 68.15 5.10 26.73 69.31 3.96

Temperature 2.53 35.44 62.03 14.29 45.71 40.00

Sea Level increase 14.09 76.51 9.40 26.74 55.81 17.44

High Tide 29.23 63.85 6.92 19.59 27.84 52.58

Drought Condition 28.91 71.09 0.00 14.29 40.95 44.76

Production of


Increase Decrease Increase Decrease

Paddy 0.85 99.15 11.11 88.89

Other Crop 0.00 100.00 12.50 87.50

Vegetables 0.00 100.00 28.85 71.15

Fish catch (sea and river) 1.75 98.25 22.22 77.78

Homestead gardening 0.00 100.00 24.14 75.86

Livestock 3.85 96.15 10.71 89.29

Forest Product 0.00 100.00 20.00 80.00

Causes of crop damage


Decreased fertility of land 88.29 31.03 76.43

Increased agricultural cost 26.13 65.52 34.29

Seasonal Inundation 1.80 6.90 2.86

Water logging 18.02 13.79 17.14

Decreased seasonal job opportunity 11.71 27.59 15.00

Crop damaged due to disaster 48.65 62.07 51.43

Increase cost of inputs 37.84 41.38 38.57

Price gone down 3.60 20.69 7.14

Increased hardship 18.92 55.17 26.43

Loss of interest in agriculture 47.75 34.48 45.00

Labour Crisis 4.50 13.79 6.43

74


Table 2.6: Impact of climate change on women's livelihood

Table 2.7: Loss of livestock and its causes by Coast

Table 2.8: Loss of livestock and its implications on women by Coast

Table 2.9: Loss of fishing by Coast

Table 2.10: Reasons of changes in forest product collection by coast


Increase hardship 79.3 78.9 79.2

Increase working hours 68.6 36.8 59.4

Adopting hazardous work 24.3 38.6 28.4

Migrating 17.1 12.3 15.7

Less time for children 22.1 22.8 22.3

Loss of livestock and its causes


Scarcity of grazing land/meadow 56.41 55.56 56.14

Increase in disease 94.23 35.48 80.74

Death due to cyclone and flood 22.81 34.38 26.97

Water crisis due to salinity 30.91 37.84 33.70

Implications

Orissa Coast Total

Workload increased for fodder collection 69.91 100.00 74.81

Rearing time increased 50.00 50.00 50.00

Women’s spend more time in the field 42.05 50.00 43.00

Loss of fishing


Sea is rough so can’t go for fishing 58.1 44.2 52.4

Reduction of catch 36.4 55.2 45.7

Reduction in fish variety 52.7 71.6 62.0


New restriction 44.29 73.33 49.41 Increase in number of collectors 48.10 42.86 47.31 Reduction of products 51.43 46.67 50.59

Bangladesh Coast

75


Table 2.11: Effects on women for reducing employment days by Coast

Table 2.12: Reason for reduction of employment days by Coast

Table 2.13: Percentage of people experiencing food insecurity by severity scale.

Table 2.14: Other non-livelihoods impacts on girls and women by Coast

Effects


Women get less wage work 85.91 75.00 81.74

Women get less wage 12.08 42.39 23.65

Insecurity increased as men migrate 17.45 16.30 17.01

Taken up hazardous work 10.07 26.09 16.18

Reasons


Use of machine in the field 74.50 11.96 50.62

Reduction in agriculture 14.77 44.57 26.14

Too many people in the labour market 10.74 43.48 23.24

Scale of Food Security

Coast


Adequate food round the year 33.1

Some food insecurity round the year 35.6 19.2

Food insecurity in some months 19.4 31.7

Hunger in some months 11.9 37.5

Hunger round the year 11.7

Total 100.0 100.0

Types of impacts

Coast Total

Orissa Coast

Bangladesh Coast

Violence increased at home 21.3 33.3 26.4

Girls stopped going to schools 43.8 17.5 32.5

Increased workload to collect water/ FW/ Fodder 73.1 50.8 63.6

Increased burden of livelihood due to migration 27.5 11.7 20.7

76


Table 3.1: Done anything to adjust with the loss/changes

Table 3.2: Type of adaptation measures adopted by people by coast

Adaptive Capacity



n

Yes 29.6 16.7 28.1 61.5 58.6 60.8 118 42.1

No 53.5 66.7 55.0 2.2 10.3 4.2 93 33.2

Planning to do 9.9 5.6 9.4 18.7 6.9 15.8 34 12.1

Thinking to do 7.0 11.1 7.5 17.6 24.1 19.2 35 12.5

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Type of adaptation measures (Multiple responses)

Coast


Changing housing structure/Raising homestead 10.0 65.5 44.3

Floating gardens for vegetables and spices cultivation

.0 6.2 3.8

Displacement and migration 4.3 9.7 7.7

Using new seeds variety 35.7 8.0 18.6

Using new technology for production 14.3 5.3 8.7

We do produce things differently 8.6 .9 3.8

We are getting organised to influence government

25.7 2.7 11.5

Gathering information 7.1 .0 2.7

Joining/Associated with NGOs 68.6 84.1 78.1

Changed livelihood .0 5.3 3.3

77


Table 3.3: Type of adaptation by support receiving status from Paribartan

Table 3.4: Reasons for not doing anything on Climate change

Table 3.5: Preparedness by head of HH

Multiple responses Receiving support from Paribartan

No Yes p-value

Changing housing structure/Raising homestead 31.5 68.5 0.411

Floating gardens for vegetables and spices cultivation

50.0 50.0 0.426

Displacement and migration 60.0 40.0 0.168

Using new seeds variety 20.6 79.4 0.068

Using new technology for production .0 100.0 0.001

We do produce things differently 14.3 85.7 0.423

We are getting organised to influence government

6.3 93.8 0.011

Gathering information .0 100.0 0.163

Joining/Associated with NGOs 36.4 63.6 0.672

Changed livelihood 50.0 50.0 0.426

Multiple responses Gender of HH head


Don’t know what to do 78.9 42.9 76.3

Didn’t get any information yet 12.2 .0 11.3

Big problem, can’t solve it alone 7.8 42.9 10.3

There are other serious problems/Challenges .0 14.3 1.0

Don’t know about the technology 4.4 .0 4.1

I know what to do, but don’t have a lot of money 6.7 .0 6.2

Does your family prepared to face any disaster?

Gender of HH head

Male Female Total

Yes 55.4 55.3 55.4

No 23.2 25.5 23.6

Partially 21.5 19.1 21.1

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

78

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