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ITF Monitoring in a changing global climate

Dongchull JeonKIOST

POGO-14Cape Town, Jan. 22-24, 2013

El Nino in a changing climate

• Central Pacific El Nino is more often in late 20th century

classical El Nino CP-El Nino

(from Yeh et al., 2009, Nature)

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Warm Pool Variability

(from Williams and Funk, 2011, Clim. Dyn.)

Red: surface currentsBlue: undercurrents

WBC system in the NW. Pacific

(from NPOCE Science Plan, 2009)

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Luzon Strait

Mindanao/Halmahera

Makassar Strait

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The imbalance of the westward flow [Mindanao-xx] and eastward flow [xx-Halmahera] marks the feed of tropical Pacific Water into Makassar Strait and Maluku Sea.

A

BC

A= B + C1986-1999 gray

X PIES [approx bottom depth shown]X CPIES [approx bottom depth shown]M Current mooring: 2 LR ADCP, upward and downward set 500 m;  current meters, 1500, near sea floor; microcat at sea floor; [approx bottom depth shown]

On deployment:  CTD/LADCP [yo‐yo, tidal cycle] section. Repeat as often as possible in rotation and recovery cruises.

Ships:  BJ8?, KIOST (former KORDI)? US? China? 

2 year deployment, 1 year rotation of all moorings [which upon study enables planning for a possible longer range plan, beyond the second year.

Luzon Strait by China [SIO: Zhu, Chen]?  

x

x

x

x

x

x

~1000 m

M

M

M

M~3000 m m

~1000 m

~1000 m

~1000 m

~2500 m

~3500 m

M

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TIME TABLE:

• Fall/winter 2013/14:  interact with collaborators: [US, Korea, China, Indonesia, …] to build a preliminary program design; who does what?

• Present Preliminary Plan at the ITF session of Indian Ocean Conference in Jakarta, June 11‐13, 2013

• US component: NSF proposal Aug2013 [Gordon, Park, Watts]

• field work late 2014 to late 2016.

WEAKNESS: monitoring of Halmahera Eddy flow into Halmahera SeasHowever: ITF mainly North Pacific origin; Maybe at ITF TT meeting coverage of the 

Halmahera Seas will emerge?

Drifter Tacks (Apr 1986 ‐ Sep 2010)

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ITF Gateway Program

• Phase I• Period : 2014-2016• Tentative participants:

A. Gordon (LDEO, USA) : 7 CPIESD. Jeon (KIOST, Korea) : 3 ADCP + 5 PIESR. Djamaludin (BPPT, Indonesia) : r/v BJD. Chen (SIO/SOA, China) : 5~15 PIES

• More participants are needed for a better program !