UNIVERSITY IN LJUBLJANA

FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

Sandra Martinič

LAOS CONFLICT

Analysis of Contemporary Conflicts

Analysis of conflict dynamics

Ljubljana, 12. january 2014

Table of Contents

1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................3

2 Methodology............................................................................................................................3

2.1 Explanation of the problem...............................................................................................4

2.2 Methods of research..........................................................................................................4

2.3 Hypothesis.........................................................................................................................4

3 Description of the conflict.......................................................................................................5

3.1 French colonial administration of Laos............................................................................5

3.2 Civil war............................................................................................................................6

3.3 Laos and Thailand war......................................................................................................6

3.4 Hmong insurgency............................................................................................................7

4 Analysis of the dynamics of the conflict..................................................................................7

4.1 Conflict phase...................................................................................................................7

4.2 Post-conflict phase............................................................................................................8

5 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................12

6 Literature................................................................................................................................12

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1 Introduction

Laos in southeastern Asia, surrounded by China, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, formed,

in the first second half of the 19th Century, a French colony named Indochina together with

Vietnam and Cambodia. With the way that French government of Indochina and their

oppressive nature and their promotion of ideals, helped shape the rebellion and the resistance

against the rule of France. This later led to the demise of French Indochinese Empire. The

growing national movements started taking the effect in the 1920s, first in Vietnam and later

in Laos and Cambodia. A number of radical pro−independence groups were formed with no

obvious success. It was not until the Second World War when the balance in power changed

and thus creating an opportunities for pro−independence movements. When France lost the

war against Germany they were force to allow Japans free movement on their colonize

territory for the invasion of China. With this action the France lost the aura of indestructibility

and granted Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia the first step to their independence and defeat of

French power in Indochina (Marshall Cavendish Corporation 2007a, 748−9).

Laos is a relatively modern state even with a long history. In 1954, after several small Lao

states united it one single kingdom, they gained their independence. But even independence

didn’t provide the ending of the conflicts. Three major events happen before 1975. Firstly, a

civil war broke out between Royalists and Communist Pathet Lao forces. Secondly, Laos was

used for the Vietnamese supply rout during the war in Vietnam. Lastly, the United States (US)

withdrawal from Vietnam offered Pathet Lao an opportunity to seize power in Laos in 1975

thus establishing a Communist dictatorship (Marshall Cavendish Corporation 2007b, 786).

The year 1975 mark the start of the Hmong rebellion that fought against the Communist

Pathet Lao, who took control over the country and started a serious of campaigns of genocide

against Hmongs.

2 Methodology

In my conflict analysis I will analyze the Conflict between Lao government and ethnic

population of Hmong and among them many the royalists. Firstly I will focus on the

description of conflict; actors, brief root causes, interest and motivation. Secondly, I will

chronology divided the root causes of the conflict from colonial era to civil war and linked

conflict thus establishing root causes and involved actors. Thirdly, the conflict dynamics will

be based on SIDA manual work and question how, why and when. Last but not least the

explanation of hypothesis and conclusion.

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2.1 Explanation of the problem

Laos is a country that were part of the French Empire Indochina and, First and Second

Indochina war which immediately led to a civil war until 1975 and later in conflict about

ideology/system and ethnic division. In a period of Cold War it was an area of East and West

tension. With the gradual elimination of Hmong population, the government is trying to get

rid of internal conflict and rule with communist iron. There is violent and psychological abuse

of military forces on daily basis with military surveillance and prosecution and killing of

Hmong civilians and rebels.

2.2 Methods of research

While writing my analysis of conflict I will focus on reading and critically analysing of

secondary sources like internet and newspapers articles from which I will construct an

objectively analysis of dynamics of conflict. To achieve that I will also use historical analysis

in order to explain the conflict, background, root causes and interest of the actors in Hmong

insurgency.

2.3 Hypothesis

“Based on information and the status of protracted conflict the Hmong insurgency it will start

to run low of resources (weapons, humans) to continue the resistance against the Lao

government”.

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3 Description of the conflict

To understand the root–causes that brought the ongoing intrastate conflict and additional one-

sided violence between Hmong rebellion and the Lao people’s Army it’s important to

understand the history, behavior patters, cultural, political and economic system, etc. from

colonial era and French colonial administration of Laos (1893–1954), to the modern era; Civil

war (1953–1975), Laos and Thailand war (1975–1988) and Hmong insurgency (1975–

ongoing). The last conflict it’s considered as a continuation of the civil war. Since 1946 Laos

went through different types of conflict: extra-state, inter-state, intra-state conflict and one-

sided violence.  For the first three conflicts I will just stated the more important events and

fact which had an impact on the latest ongoing conflict between Hmong and Lao people’s

Army. For the last conflict I will stated I little more background information which will help

me for analyzing the dynamics of the conflict.

3.1 French colonial administration of Laos

The French colonial rule was administrated from 1893 to 1954. The territory was organized as

a protectorate, which we known under the name Indochina. The rule covered the territory of

Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. Laos wasn’t noticed by French until World War II with

Japanese invasion in 1941. Four years later they took outright administrative control of the

remainder of Indochina and a month later Laos proclaimed independence. During that time

two movements emerged; anti-Japanese with court of Luang Prabang and Prince Boun Oum

of Champassak as representatives and anti-French or the Free Laos movement or Lao Issara

which was led by Prince Phetsarath Ratanavongsa. With the return of the French troops in

1946 the members of Lao Issara fled and France recognized the internal autonomy of Laos

under the king of Luang Prabang, Sisavang Vong. In 1949 the Granco-Laotian convention

was signed which granted Laos a limited self-government within French Union. Loa Issara

subordinated to French rule. But Kaysone Phomvihan and Prince Souphanouvong views of

Laos’s government differed from the French and a new radical group the Pathet Lao (“Land

of the Lao”) was formed in 1950. During the next years Pathet Lao joined forces with the Viet

Minh against French rule. In October 1953 the French grant independence to Laos (still

controlled al military aspects) which didn’t pacify Pathet Lao and by 1954 they controlled two

of the country’s provinces when Geneva Accords (1954) officially marked the end of the

French rule and Laos came under the rule of the royal government as agreed by France, Great

Britain, the United States, China, and the Soviet Union. But the two “regroupment zones”

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under the control of Pathet Lao and the areas resulted in the de facto control by the Laotian

communists or Pathet Lao (Encyclopedia Britannica 2014).

3.2 Civil war

It’s known also as a Secret war and it happened during the Second Indochina war or Vietnam

War. Some say that the war took place from 1962 to 1975, but the Geneva Agreements in

1954 didn’t bring peace within Laos in just ended the French rule. So we can say that the civil

war started on December 9 1953. The conflict was between a left-wing faction of the former

Lao Issara, the Pathet Laos (connection with North Vietnam) and the Royal Lao Government.

An intra-state conflict erupted which also became part of the wider regional war in Indochina.

The Royal Lao Government was supported by Thailand, South Vietnam and the United States

of America (USA) (UCDP 2014a). In some way Laos became a battleground for the Vietnam

War and at the same time went trough a civil war. North Vietnam wanted to establish

communist rule in the South Vietnam and because the Pathet Lao were allies of North

Vietnam, Thailand feared the threat of neighboring country as Laos being overtaken by a

communist rule and leaving them as a next target, meanwhile Pathet Lao was helped by North

Vietnam, Soviet Union and China (Oracle 2010). The conflict ended on December 2 1975

with Pathet Lao victory, abolishment of the monarchy and establishment a one–party

communist state called Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Conflict lasted for 22 years, 3

weeks and 2 days with 20,000–70,000 total dead; 15,000 Royal Lao Army, more than 3,000

dead North Vietnamese and unknown number of Pathet Lao casualties. The conflict has led to

mass migration of refugees in Thailand; they consist of royalist and ethnic minorities. One of

the important ethnic minorities is the Hmong tribe who helped the Central Intelligence

Agency (CIA) during the Civil war. The CIA trained them and supplies the weapons so they

could help as guerilla fighters (UCDP 2014b).

3.3 Laos and Thailand war

The roots of this conflict are is the Pathet Lao victory and establishment of a communist state

in 1975. After this the conflict went through periods of escalation and de-escalation of

violence. Along with Thailand resistance groups of Hmong tribe were formed, but the alliance

(ender the name Lao Resistance Movement) wasn’t strong. On December 1, 1989 the conflict

reached 25 battle-related deaths. During the last year of the conflict clashes occurred between

the government and the Hmong’s. Laos’s government also launched a military campaign that

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allegedly also included attacks on the civilian Hmong population. With minor intensity the

conflict was coded as terminated on December 31, 1990 due to low activity (UCDP 2014c).

3.4 Hmong insurgency

All the previous conflicts have led to the Hmong insurgency and the conflict of my analysis.

This subchapter will not show the dynamics of the conflict but just the conflict mapping from

what I can establish the nature of the conflict. This information’s will allow me to analysis the

dynamics of the conflict in the next chapter.

As already mention the root causes can be found well before the Second Indochina War.

Hmong people believe that Laos in the northern mountains will be there ‘promise land’ in

their movement Chao Fa (Heavenly Lord). The division of Hmong tribe on two clans, Lo and

the Ly, started the tribe’s internal dispute with Lo joining the communist and the Ly the

French. In the civil war the Ly became the heart of the “Secret Army” with the US and France

but the cost was too high and in the end many of them fled the country (Stuart-Fox 2003). The

start of the conflict was in 1975 when Pathet Lao over threw the king ad the Hmong rebellion

was formed – intra-ethnic conflict. Most of the fighting was along northern Laos where the

Hmong ‘headquarter’ is located, but with the withdrawal of the US support the success rate

was not high. The conflict is carried out by military and terrorists attacks (UCDP 2014d).

4 Analysis of the dynamics of the conflict

In my analysis of the dynamics of the conflict I will focus on three important questions:

When, How and Why? During this research I’m also going to try pinpointing the initiation,

escalation, entrapment, de-escalation and if, termination.

4.1 Conflict phase

Initiation was on December 2 1975 when Pathet Lao officially took control of the government

and the Hmong people who contributed on the USA side were singled for retribution. Hmong

tried to took the country from the communist control by force in the areas of Southern Laos in

the 1980s and 90s but from the beginning the fight took place in Central and Northern Laos

(FindtheData 2014a). Till 1989 we can observed both escalation and de-escalation periods,

one of the biggest events during this time was at the beginning of 1980s when the resistance

groups of Hmong tribe started forming an alliance under the name Lao Resistance Movement

(LRM) (UCDP 2014e).

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Escalation begun from the start and from 1975 to 1980 a third of the Hmong population was

killed after the US withdrawal. It was a step escalation. The contest was zero-sum game. In

1981 when detection of chemical weapons agents the Hmong was detected by some western

scientists. The chemicals were from the Soviet Union and the investigation was open in the

UN (Kao-Ly 2002). It can still be observed the competition between the West and the East

during the Cold War and their playgrounds around the world where they provoked each other.

The government of Laos was accused of genocide against the Hmong with the help of

Vietnam (FindtheData 2014b). Violence included terror bombing, massacres and mass rape.

At this point we can se the transformation of conflict in intra-state conflict with foreign

involvement. After the loose LRM alliance the strategy was a proclamation of an independent

government. In early 1990s the government military campaign increase and many Hmong

civilians were included in the attacks. They took refuge in Thailand, Australia and USA.

Because of the improved relationship with neighboring countries the violent actions by the

insurgent groups were limited. On December 1, 1989 conflict reached 25 battle–related deaths

what means that the conflict transforms from violent crisis to an armed conflict (UCDP

2014f).

De-escalation started after 1989 in this times Laos held first elections since 1975 where

communists retain their power. In 1991 Thailand and Laos signed a security and cooperation

pact where the Hmong people lost and ally and a territory from where their attacks were

planned. A year later USA establishes contacts with Laos’s government and opened the

diplomatic ties (BBC 2013). As we can see there never was any entrapment period during this

conflict, even with the Hmong people commitment to the cause they didn’t have the means to

fight against the government, so the fled and took refuge around the world. Ethnic Liberation

Organization of Laos (ELOL), formerly known as Chao Fa and part of the LRM alliance.

After the devastating knowledge that they wouldn’t reach their goal of overthrowing the

government, ELOL started claim that their interest have changed and that they are trying to

link all the ethnic minorities. In the end, the withdrawal of foreign involvement Thailand,

USA, Vietnam, Soviet Union) since 1989 transform the conflict in silent termination on

December 31 1989 with no peace agreement and with no decisive move to establish a solution

between the government and the Hmong minority. In entire conflict until 1991 there were 30

fatality in 1989 and 45 in 1990 (UCDP 2014g).

4.2 Post-conflict phase

After February 1, 1992 the conflict enter into post-conflict phase or into frozen state. There

were some significant events that have affected the conflict: president Phomvihan died and

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Nouhak Phoumsavan was elected as a new president on November 25, 1992. In 1994 new

constitution came into force and a year later the US economic sanctions or trade embargo

against the country were lifted. Parliamentary elections from 1992 (December 20) were a

repeat of history in 1997 (December 21) where LPRP again won all the seats in the National

Assembly (University of Central Arkansas 2014a). After 1998 when General Khamtai

Siphandon was elected as the president of the National Assembly the conflict started to

gradually escalate. The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK) didn't

even rank in the annual reports in 1997 and till 2002 and again in 2005. From 1998 to 2000

the conflict is based on protests, violence against civilians, battles for territory with no

changes. The main actors were Hmong Ethnic Militia, Military Forces of Laos, civilians, Lao

Resistance Movements and unidentified armed groups. Most of it was bomb attacks,

protestations and hostage taking (ACLED 2014a). Based on UCDP information there were

around 4000 troops of Hmong movement in 2000. There were divided on two main groups:

United Lao National Liberation Front (ULNLF) and ELOL (UCDP 2014h). One of the most

notice attacks in that time was on July 3, 2000 when Lao Resistance Movement (LRM) and

Hmong Ethnic Militia (HME) attacked a government customs office in Vang Tao, which

cause the death of six insurgents. To 2004 the attacks became escalating. For example, on

February 6, 2003 HME attacked a convoy of vehicles and killed 13 people among them two

Swiss and one Chinese citizen. It was an attack to draw attention to the Hmong cause

(ACLED 2014b). HIIK in 2004 report the conflict as intensity level four and escalating. It was

based on regular bomb attack in 2000 against civilians and government. The following year

provided no change. The main actors were still Conflict Parties: Lao Citizens’ Movement for

Democracy (LCMD) and Committee for Independence and Democracy in Laos (CIDL) vs.

the government (HIIK 2003; HIIK 2004).

The year 2006 was a major shift in a conflict, when the one-sided violence resulted in over 25

civilian deaths. Around 73 people were killed, mostly in Thailand provinces. First casualties

were in early Aprils when 26 Hmong civilian were killed (women and children). Couple of

days later there were two more incidents where women and children were killed digging root

and on 16 April, 22 children and two adults were killed while they were unarmed. Most area’s

incident was under military control and where media is forbidden (UCDP 2014). One-sided

violence is difficult to uncover because of lots of attacks are in remote areas. In some way it

was a natural continuation of the conflict in which no solution or talks never emerge from the

involve actors. On March 15, 2007 the Military Forces of Laos continued with violent attacks

on Hmong population even if the number of Hmong population is reducing, but there are still

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some veterans which were train as a part of the ‘secret army’. In 2007 the conflict continued

on a violent level with 10,000 Hmong remaining in the jungle and most of the living in

Thailand, USA and other countries and based on them don’t pose a threat to the government.

However that doesn’t mean that the government doesn’t sees them as a threat so they still

organized several military operations toward civilians through direct or indirect violence

(HIIK 2007). In June the same year there were also an attempt of a violent “coup d’État” and

the US arrest of a former (now deceased) Hmong leader General Vang Pao with nine

associates. The US prosecutors charged them with planning an armed attack in Lao capital.

They conspired to buy machine guns and bombs to carry out attacks in Vientiane. They

convince the insurgents groups in Laos to take up arms and fight against the regime (BTI

Index 2014). In 2008 there was an internal break in the resistance movement when a majority

of ‘freedom fighters’ in Muong Mok in Xieng Khouang decided to join the Lao government

after 30 years of fighting against it. Consequence of this is that most 'treacherous' rebels were

killed by rebels from insurgent party (Yia Lee 2005). The intensity level in 2008 has been

reduced to level 3 which show descalation. This level has not changed until today (HIIK

2008–12). On September 15, 2008 Hmong were attacked and the government soldiers killed a

5-year old boy whose grave is on the outskirts of the camp. A month later on October 17,

2008 many of Hmong civilians were being starved to death and are ill with no medical help

moreover there a many of them sustain a wound from recent government attacks. December

21, 2008 mark an increased violent and psychological abuse and arbitrary arrests at Lao

Hmong refuge camp and detention center in Thailand where around 7,000 Hmong civilians

are looking for political asylum from military, political and religious attacks in Laos. The end

of 2008 was completed as a continuing of attacks and killings of hundred of Hmong civilians.

The attacks from Lao military were supported by Vietnamese troops (ACLED 2014c). In the

year 2010 Laotian and Vietnamese military forces were accused of an attack against 120

Hmong civilians by the International Unrepresented Nations and People Organization. The

report of the Human Rights Council stated several military attacks on Hmong civilians in the

areas of Phou Bia, Phou Da Phao, Luang Prabang province, Khammoune province, Xieng

Khouang province, and Saysamboune. Further more, the attacks were carried out by small

arms, grenades and mortars (HIIK 2010).

Till today the conflict is becoming increasingly weak in intensity level. On 7 January 2011, a

great Hmong hero died in exile in the US; General and leader of Hmong ethnic groups Vang

Pao. By them he was regarded as exiled head of state. Saw as a controversial figure and a

passionate fighter for freedom from foreign domination. CIA regard him as one of the biggest

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hero of the Vietnam War and critics as a man who caused deaths of 17,000 men or 10% of

total Hmong population in attempt to reach his and the country overthrown (BBC 2011). The

attacks by the Lao military and the deaths of the three Hmong on June 26, 2012, encouraged

the Congress of the World Hmong People for the international intervention and help which

should send independent international observers to conduct an objective report for the

international community. Rocket grenades and ongoing gun firing was in the Hmong refuge

territory in Laos (Loeff 2012). The latest developments in the conflict were a re-call of the

international community to take a more active role to end the armed conflict and one-sided

violence. They urge their close attention to the ongoing events in the country and the

worsening situation of Hmong civilians. The latest report are sowing that the government is

using dogs to hunt Hmong people and are again entering the east zone of Moungxaysombun,

Moung Cha. Because of the lack of food, being destroyed by military forces and medical

supplies the need for humanitarian assistance is increasing (UNPO 2013).

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Hmong insurgencyLaos-Thailand

2/12/1975 Pathet Lao took control

Step escalation 1975-85=Thirdof Hmong population killed

1/12/1989-Both conflict reach 25 BRD

Conflict descalation-lack of resources, retreat of interational help.Conflict termination:12/31/1989

Post-conflict phase2/12/1992

7/3/2000-attackin van Tao.Bomb attacks-re-escalation

2006: One-sided violenceagainst Hmong2007: Coup d'État

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5 Conclusion

After 32 years long conflict if we do not include civil war or back in colonial times the

conflict has establish itself on medium intensity level or violent crisis based on HIIK. After so

much Hmong population was killed or took refuge in other countries, the Hmong population

in Laos is currently around 400,000 and less than 1,000 to participate in rebellion. The main

source of money in illegal trade of opium but even this will not last long because of the

serious regional actions to stop illegal trafficking. The problem is that with no serious

cooperation between government and opposition with the help of international community

this conflict is not going to terminate or just progress in a cease fire agreement. The other

‘solution’ is a repeat of Rwanda and genocide against the remained Hmong population. As we

see from 2006 the conflict step into a one-sided violence with serious physical and

psychological abuse of Hmong civilians what are the first phases of genocide. Based on my

hypothesis: “Based on information and the status of protracted conflict the Hmong insurgency

it will start to run low of resources (weapons, humans) to continue the resistance against the

Lao government”. It can partly confirm the hypothesis. Humans’ resources with around 1,000

rebels it’s insufficient to carry out an overthrow plus with some rebels joining the government

and trying to live a normal life a serious internal disruption is happening in the opposition.

The last blow was a dead of the Hmong leader Vang Pao in 2011. He was considered to be the

Hmong “head of state” and due to his death, many people lost momentum for resistance. The

differences are Hmong people in exile who still try to fight for a free country clear of

dominance. But except for the money, their help doesn’t mean a lot.

During the analysis of conflict dynamics I try to imagine a future scenario for Laos. Being a

playground for East and West during the Cold War and at the end being abounded by USA,

Laos will continue to stay in a procreated conflict with no solution for resolution. The foreign

intervention will not happen due to no–interest by the West and East. And when the

humanitarian intervention will be agreed upon, it will be too late. First scenario is already

mentioned and it’d genocide. The second scenario will pull Thailand and Vietnam into a

conflict even more that are now and were in the past.

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6 Literature

ACLED. 2014. Laos. Accessible via: http://www.acleddata.com/archived-data/ (19. january

2014).

BBC. 2011. Laos general and Hmong lead Vang Pao dies in exile. Accessible via:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12133710 (19. january 2014).

BBC. 2013. Laos profile. Accessible via: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-

15351901 (19. january 2014).

BTI Index. 2014. BTI 2012 – Laos Country Report. Accessible via: http://www.bti-

project.de/laendergutachten/aso/lao/2012/#chap10 (19. january 2014).

Encyclopedia Britannica. 2014. Laos. Accessible via:

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/330219/Laos/52520/Under-foreign-

rule#ref509339 (9. january 2014).

FindtheData. 2014. Insurgency in Laos. Accessible via:

http://wars.findthedata.org/l/448/Insurgency-in-Laos (18. january 2014).

HIIK. 2014. Conflict Barometer. Accessible via: http://www.hiik.de/en/konfliktbarometer/

(19. january 2014).

Kao-Ly, Yang. 2002. Hmong History Timeline. Hmong Contemporary Issues. Accessible via:

http://www.hmongcontemporaryissues.com/HistoireCultureLanguage/HistoryTimelineHm

ong.html (18. january 2014).

Loeff, M. Patrick. 2012. Hmong: Appeal for International Intervention. UNPO. Accessible

via: http://www.unpo.org/article/14510 (19. january 2014).

Marshall Cavendish Corporation. 2007. World and Its Peoples: Cambodia, Laos, and

Vietnam. World and Its Peoples: Eastern and Southern Asia (6). Marshall Cavendish.

Accessible via: http://books.google.si/books?

id=kte14XIoOCkC&pg=PA748&lpg=PA748&dq=indochina+french+colony+conflicts+la

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X&ei=nL-yUtS4LKiWyAPIxYC4Aw&ved=0CGoQ6AEwCA#v=onepage&q&f=false

(19. december 2013).

Oracle. 2010. Memories of the “Secret War”. Accessible via:

http://library.thinkquest.org/trio/TR0110763/secretWar.html (9. january 2014).

Yia Lee, Gary. 2005. The Hmong Rebellion in Laos: Victims of Totalitarianism or Terrorists?

Accessible via: http://members.ozemail.com.au/~yeulee/Topical/Hmong%20rebellion

%20in%20Laos.html#Current Situation (19. january 2014).

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Stuart-Fox, Martin. 2003. The Hmong Problem in Laos. The Irrawaddy 11 (7). Accessible

via: http://www2.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=3101&page=1 (18. january 2014).

UCDP. 2014. Laos. Accessible via: http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/gpcountry.php?

id=90&regionSelect=7-Eastern_Asia (9. january 2014).

University of Central Arkansas. 2014. Laos (1954-present). Accessible via:

http://uca.edu/politicalscience/dadm-project/asiapacific-region/laos-1954-present/ (19.

january 2014).

UNPO. 2013. Worsening Situation for the Hmong in Laos. Accessible via:

http://www.unpo.org/article/16474 (19. january 2014).

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