Sherry Heileman (Component coordinator)

Julian Barbiere (Component manager)

IOC-UNESCO

On behalf of the LMEs Working Group

Large Marine Ecosystems Status and Trends

Largemarineecosystems

•  66LMEscovertheworld’scoastalareasfromshorelinetoouteredgeofcon9nentalshelformajoroceancurrent

•  Each200,000squarekmorgreater•  Highlyproduc9ve;intenseimpactsfromhumanac9vi9esWesternPacificWarmPoolalsoassessed(subsetofindicators)

ConceptualframeworkBuildsonthe5LMEmodules:Produc8vity,Fish&Fisheries,Pollu8on&EcosystemHealth,Socio-economics&GovernanceDPSIRframeworkLinksbetweenhumanandnaturalsystemsIncorporatesnaturalvariability

Assessmentques8ons

•  Whatarethecurrenttrends(&projec9ons)inLMEstatewithrespecttofisheries,pollu9on,habitats?

•  WhichLMEsareatthehighestrela9verisk?

•  Whataretheimplica9onsforhumans?

-WhereishumandependencygreatestonLMEecosystem services?

-WherearehumansmostvulnerabletochangesinLMEcondi;on?

•  WhatisthestatusofgovernancearrangementsintransboundaryLMEstoaddressthepriorityissues(fisheriesoverexploita9on,pollu9on,habitat/biodiversityloss)

Produc8vity

Fish&Fisheries(14.4)

Pollu8on&EcosystemHealth

• Chlorophyl

• Primaryproduc8vity

• SST

• Fishingsubsidies(14.6)• CatchfromboMomgear

• Fishingeffort(14.4)

• MTI&FIB

• Ecologicalfootprint• Stockstatus• Catchpoten8alunderglobalwarming

• Nutrientloads(6.3,14.1)• CoastalEutrophica8onPoten8al(6.3,14.1)

• POPsinplas8cpellets(6.3,12.4,14.1)• Micro&macro-plas8cdebris(6.3,12.5,14.1)

• MPAcoverage(14.2,14.5)

• ReefsatRiskIndex(14.2)

• Mangroveextent(14.2)• Cumula8vehumanimpacts(14)

• OceanHealthIndex(14)

IndicatorsbyLMEmodules(relevancetoSDGGoals&Targets)

Socio-economics Governance

• %fishprotein(2.1,2.2,14.7)• %GDPtourism(8.9,14.7)

• Coastalpopula8on• HumanDevelopmentIndex• NightlightDevelopmentindex

• Climaterisk(11.5,13.1)• Contemporarytreatindex(1.5,11.5)

• Governancearchitecture-Completeness,Engagement,Integra8on(mul8-countryLMEs)

Indicatorscont’d(andrelevancetoSDGGoals&Targets)

Relative risk

•  Conceptofrisk:thelikelihoodoffailuretosustaintheecosystemservicesthattransboundarywatersprovide.

•  GroupingofLMEsinto5colour-codedcategoriesofrela9veriskbasedonindicatorvalues

•  Ideally,thecut-offpointsforthefivecategoriesshouldbebasedonsettargetsorreferencepoints,butgloballythesedonotexistformostoftheindicators

•  Expertsdecidedonthecutoffpoints•  ValuesareaveragesattheLMEscaleanddonotreflectthe

situa9onofanypar9cularcountry

Results:GlobalpaMernsofrisk Singlebiophysicalindicators

(driversandenvironmentalstate)

Examples

Produc8vity:Seasurfacetemperature(1957-2012) •  SSTs have increased in all but

two LMEs since 1957. •  Three LMEs show ‘super-fast’

warming (increase of up to 1.6°C): East China Sea, Scotian Shelf, and Northeast US Continental Shelf.

•  Warming seas are already

affecting LME productivity and biodiversity (e.g., fish catch potential, coral reefs) and exacerbating human impacts in certain LMEs.

D.Pauly&V.Lam,SeaAroundUs(UBC)

I.Belkin,URI

Fish&Fisheries

Effec8vefishingeffort:Steadyincreasesince1950

Fishingsubsidies:ValueoffishingsubsidiesinsomeLMEsamounttoupto80%ofcatchvalue!

D.Pauly&V.Lam,SeaAroundUs(UBC)

Overfishingiden8fiedasapriorityissueinmostLMEs.Whatdrivesunsustainablefishing?•  Excessivefishingeffort•  Harmfulfishingsubsidies•  Otherfactorssuchasillegal,

unreportedandunregulatedfishing(IUU),etc

Fish&Fisheries

•  Onesymptomofunsustainablefishing-collapsedandoverfishedstocks.

•  SourcesofpressureanddegreeofriskvaryamongLMEs→needfortailoredsolu9ons.

•  NearlyallGEF-eligibleLMEshavemorethan50%oftheindicatorsatmedium/high/highestrisklevels.

D.Pauly&V.Lam,SeaAroundUs(UBC)

Pollu8on:Rela8veabundanceoffloa8ngmicro-plas8cs(upper)&macro-plas8cs(lower),frommodeles8mates

•  The model uses three proxies to represent sources of marine litter: coastal population density, proportion of urbanized catchment (more rapid run-off),and shipping density.

•  Estimated levels are highest in East and Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea.

P.Kershaw(GESAMP)&L.Lebreton

•  GlobalNEWSmodel-indicatorofcoastaleutrophica9onbasedontheamountofnitrogeninputinrivers,andnutrientra9os(dissolvedSitoNorP).

•  16%ofLMEsareathighriskfromnutrients(sewageandagriculture)

•  Basedoncurrenttrends,by2050,coastaleutrophica;onriskwillincreasein21%ofLMEs,mainlyinsouthernandeasternAsia,SouthAmericaandAfrica.

•  IberianCoastal&NortheastUSCon9nentalShelfareprojectedtolowertheireutrophica9onriskby2050.

Nutrientinputs&CoastalEutrophica8onPoten8al

S.Seitzinger(IGBP)&E.Mayorga(Univ.Wash)

Spa8alvaria8onofnutrientloadsandsourceswithinLMEs-BayofBengalLME

DissolvedInorganicNitrogen(DIN)yield(kg/sq.km/yr) PrimaryDINsources

•  Illustra9onofvariabilityatsub-LMEscaleandwhyitisimportanttoconsidersmallerscales

•  ShowswhichbasinsintheLMEarethemostaffectedandthemajorsourcesofnutrients–importantformanagementinterven9ons

Ecosystemhealth:Reefsatriskindex

•  Whenintegratedlocalthreatiscombinedwithpastthermalstress(1998-2007)-thepropor9onofLMEswith50percentormoreoftheircoralreefareaat‘high’or‘highest’threatalmostdoubles.

•  FortheWPWP,theextentofareaunder‘high’to‘highest’threatincreasestobetween11-26.4%.

•  By2030duetooceanwarmingand

acidifica9onmostLMEswillhavemorethan50%coralreefareaathighandcri9calthreatlevels

C.McOwen&M.Jones(UNEP-WCMC)

GlobalpaMernsofrisk Integra8ngmul8pleindicators:

CumulaRveHumanImpactsOceanHealthIndex

MulRvariateanalysis(biophysicalindicators&HDI)

Cumula8veHumanImpacts

•  Ingeneral,LMEsadjacenttoheavilypopulatedcoastlines,par9cularlyindevelopedcountriesthatencompasslargewatersheds,havethehighestimpactscores.

•  ThetopsourcesofimpactfornearlyeveryLMEareassociatedwithoceanacidifica9onandhighwatertemperatures.

•  CommercialshippinganddemersalcommercialfishingaretheothertwomainstressorsattheLMEscale.

•  Atsmallerscales,esp.alongcoastlines,stressorssuchasland-basedpollu9onandfishingplayadominantrole.B.Halpern&M.Frazier(UCSB)

TheCHIIndexcombines19measuresofimpactsrelatedto:climatechange,fishing,land-basedpollu9on,andcommercialac9vi9es.

OceanHealthIndex

•  TheLMEswiththelowestOHIscoresarelongtheequator,sugges9ngthatpriorityshouldbegiventoimprovingLMEhealthintropicalregions.

•  ThehighestscoringLMEsarearoundAustraliaandinthesub-polarNorthAtlan9c.

•  Oceanhealthtendstoscorelowerwherecoastalhabitatsaredegradedordestroyed.Habitatrestora9onandprotec9onisthereforeakeystrategyforimprovingoceanhealth.

TheOHImeasuresprogresstowardsachievementoftenwidely-agreedpublicgoalsforhealthyoceans,includingfoodprovision,carbonstorage,coastallivelihoodsandeconomies,andbiodiversity.

B.Halpernetal(UCSB)

OverallpaMernsofrisk-mul8pleindicators

•  Anoverallriskscoreproducedbasedonselectedfisheries,pollu9on,andecosystemhealthindicators.

•  ScoreadjustedusingtheHumanDevelopmentIndex,torankLMEs(ONEofMANYWAYstorankLMEs)

Thisassessmentofthevulnerabilityofcoastalpopula9onsborderingLMEsincorporatesmeasuresofenvironmentalrisk,dependenceonmarineecosystemservices,andcapacitytorespondandadapttothreats.ThesemeasuresareintegratedintotheContemporaryThreat

Index.

Es9ma9ngrisktocoastalpopula9onsfromenvironmentaldegrada9onandclimatechange

Socio-economics:Consequencesforhumans-Humandependenceandvulnerability

ContemporaryThreatIndex:Incorporatesmeasuresof:•  Environmentalrisk(environmentaldegrada9on&climatechange)•  DependenceonLMEresources(coastalpopula9on,tourism,fisheries)•  Capacitytorespond/adapttothreats(HDI)

L.McManus&M. Estevanez

ContemporaryThreatIndex

•  Coastalpopula9onsinhighlypopulatedtropicalregionsarethemostatrisk.

•  Popula9onswiththehighest

risklevelsbordertheBayofBengal,CanaryCurrent,GulfofThailand,SouthChinaSea,Sulu-CelebesSea,andSomaliCoastalCurrentLMEs.

Sustainabilitytargets:Enhancedhumanwellbeingwithinlimitsofhealthyecosystems.

GlobalpaMernsofrisk-4differentlenses,similarstory

Cumula8veHumanImpact Overallrisk–biophysicalindicators&HDI

OceanHealthIndex ContemporaryThreatIndex

Governance:Transboundarygovernancearrangements

Formalgovernancearrangementsfortransboundaryagreementsonfisheries,pollu9on,andhabitatdestruc9on/biodiversityinthe49mul9-countryLMEsandtheWesternPacificWarmPoolwereassessedusingthreeindicators:1.  Integra8onofins9tu9onsinaddressingtransboundaryissuesisgenerallypoor,

withover60percentofLMEsbeinginthehighestriskcategory.Greateremphasisneedstobeplacedoncollabora9onintransboundarygovernance.Specifically,organiza9onsinvolvedwithfisheriesgovernanceinmanyLMEsarecurrentlydisconnectedfromthoseinvolvedwithpollu9onandbiodiversity.

2.  Engagementofcountriesingovernancearrangementsisgenerallygood,reflec9ngahighlevelofcommitmentontransboundaryissues.

3.  Completenessofgovernancearrangementsismoderateoverall.Currentandnewagreementsshouldcoverallstagesofthepolicycycle.Strong,knowledge-basedarrangementsthatincludemeasuresforaccountability,monitoring,andevalua9onareneededforadap9vemanagement.

L.Fanning(Univ.Dal),R.Mahon(CERMES)etal

Governancearrangements:Integra8on

•  Lowestlevelofrisk:6LMEsintheNorthPolarregion;theAntarc9c,BenguelaCurrent,HumboldtCurrent,andMediterraneanLMEs;LMEsadjacenttocountriesintheEuropeanUnion;andtheWPWP.

•  31LMEswereassignedthehighestrisklevelindica9ngthatasectoralapproachtodevelopingandimplemen9ngissue-specificagreementsmaybeinplace.

•  TheMediterraneanhasthelowestriskacrossthethreegovernanceindicators.Ithasanoverarchingintegra9ngmechanismtoaddresstransboundaryissues.

Globaldistribu9onoflevelsofintegra9onandperceivedriskfor49transboundaryLMEsandtheWesternPacificWarmPool(WPWP)

Keymessages

•  LMEsindevelopingregions(GEF-eligible)areathighestpoten9alrisk.

•  LMEsexperiencearangeofstressorsthatarelargelyanthropogenic,andlocalandregionalinscale.Butglobalthreats(warmingseasandacidifica9on)areprojectedtoplayanincreasingroleindeterminingLMEcondi9on.

•  Underabusinessasusualscenario,riskslevelsinanumberofLMEsareprojectedtoriseinthefutureduetofactorssuchasincreasingnutrientsinputsfromwatersheds,warmingseas,andincreasingcoastalpopula9ons.

•  ThereismuchroomforimprovementintransboundarygovernancearrangementsinLMEs.

•  Dataavailabilityconstraintsneedtobeaddressed.

Keymessages(cont’d)

•  DegradedLMEshavepoten9allysevereconsequencesfordependenthumancommuni9es.DegradingLMEcondi9onsandclimaterelatedrisksareaddi8onalburdensforsocioeconomicallycompromisedcoastalpopula9onsofmostlytropicalLMEs.Coastalpopula9onsindevelopingregionsaremostatrisk.

•  MaintainingLMEhealthiscri9calinhelpingcountriestoachieveSDGtargetsesp.thoserelatedtohunger(SDG#2),povertyreduc9on(SDG#1),andsustainableuseoftheoceans,seas,andmarineresourcesforsustainabledevelopment(SDG#14).RegularassessmentofLMEscancontributetoevalua9ngprogresstowardsthesetargets.

Datachallenges

•  Globaldatasetsareneededforaglobalcompara9veassessment

•  Globaldatasetswereavailableonlyforalimitednumberofindicators

•  Whereavailable,therecanbesignificantlevelofuncertaintyinthereliabilityforcertainindicatorsaswellasspa9alandtemporalgaps

•  Modeles9mateswerereliedonforanumberoftheindicatorsassessed

•  Needforvalida9on(ground-truthing)ofmodelledes9matesandremotelysenseddata,andimprovementinqualityofempiricaldata.

DownscalingofLMEindicators

•  TheTWAPLMEsassessmentwasaglobalassessmentatthescaleoftheen9reLME,usingglobaldatasets

•  Buttherecanbewithin-LMEvaria9ons,asillustratedbythespa9alvaria9oninnutrientinputsandsourcesfromdifferentwatershedsintheBayofBengalLME

•  Therefore,downscalingtosub-LMEscale(e.g.,countryscale)willbenecessarytodevelopmanagementinterven9onsattheappropriatescaleandtosupportSDGrepor9ngbycountries

•  Alltheindicatorscanbeassessedatsmaller(orbigger)geographicscales,ifdataareavailableatthesescales

Presenta8onofresults:Globalview

Presenta8onofresults:IndividualLMEs

LMEFactsheets-downloadableaspdf

SustainingTWAPLMEassessment:Linkageswithotherassessmentprocessesandprogrammes

JulianBarbiere,IOC-UNESCO

TWAPLMEsWorkingGroupIns8tu8onalPartner

Expert

Ins8tu8onalPartner

Expert

NOAA K.Sherman UNEP-WCMC M.Jones,C.McOwen,D.Stanwell-Smith

UBCSeaAroundUs D.Pauly,V.Lam,K.Kleisner

UCSB/CMAP B.Halpern

GESAMP P.Kershaw CERMES R.Mahon

IGBP S.Seitzinger IOC-UNESCO J.Barbiere,B.Combal

TokyoUniv.Agric&Tech

H.Takada

Independentexperts

J.O’ReillyI.Belkin(URI)

L.McManus(UNEP)E.Mayorga(Univ.Wash.)L.Fanning(Univ.Dal)S.Heileman

A.Rosenberg(UnionofConcernedScien8sts)M.Fogarty(NOAA)L.Lebreton&Severalothers

Thank you