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Leapfrog Enterprises Inc. November 14, 2013 Yi Liu, Ye Liang, Charalampos Ntantanis, Caleb Pierson. Agenda. Company Background Current Position Macroeconomic Outlook Industry Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation. Current Position. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Leapfrog Enterprises Inc.November 14, 2013

    Yi Liu, Ye Liang, Charalampos Ntantanis, Caleb Pierson

  • AgendaCompany Background

    Current Position

    Macroeconomic Outlook

    Industry Overview

    Financial Analysis

    Valuation

    Recommendation

  • Current Position

    RCMP recommended for purchase 2000 shares @ market (8.20) which resulted in buying 2000 shares @ $8.19 on April 5, 2013

    Current Stock price is $8.13

    This is an unrealized loss of 0.73%

  • Macroeconomic OutlookWorld (and U.S.) population is growing across the toy consumer age rangeDollars spent on toys increased 7.68% from 2007 to 2012Youth electronics decreased slightly from 2011 to 2012Nostalgic/Retro toys are making a big push this year

    The Consumer Sentiment Index is at the lowest point since 2011

    Bloomberg News and Toy Industry Association Inc.

  • Industry OverviewThe U.S. Toy market was worth $22 billion in 2012

    Industry products include dolls/action figures, models, construction kits, scooters, board games, game consoles

    Small companies are able to compete alongside larger businesses by focusing on niche products and by reacting more quickly to new trends

    Source: Hoovers

  • 5 Forces for Toys and GamesSource: Marketline

  • Source: Marketline5 Forces Analysis

    Buyer PowerSupplier PowerThreat of New EntrantsThreat of SubstitutesDegree of RivalryModerateModerateModerateHighHighIndividuals have relatively little impact Few large manufacturesPatents help protect ideas Knock off goodsMany companies offer productsCost of switching is lowSuppliers are unlikely to forward integrateEasy to self produce and marketCost of switching is lowShort lived popularity

  • Company OverviewLeapfrog trades on the NYSE with ticker symbol LF

    Company was founded in 1995 by Michael Wood and Robert Lally and headquartered in Emeryville, California USA

    Focus: Educational Entertainment for Children

    Employees: 552 people on a full-time basisSource: Company Website and 2012 10k

  • Business Segments and OperationsUnited States: 73%, 75%, 80% in 2012, 2011and 2010

    Three large retailers: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Toys R Us, Inc. and Target Corporation

    InternationalUnited Kingdom, France, Canada, Mexico, Australia, South Africa and Spain.Source: 2012 10k

  • Product PortfolioSource: Company Website

  • Product PortfolioCurrently sell 2 versions of LeapPad, 2 hand held computers (GS and the Explorer), 2 sets of eBooks (Tag and the Tag junior), learning toys, and iPhone and iPad apps

    LeapPads -- $120GS and Explorer -- $70eBooks -- $25 to $170 bundlesToys -- $10 to $25Apps -- $0.99

    Source: Company Website

  • Risk FactorsHighly seasonal Approximately 75% of total sales to retailers to occur during the third and fourth quarters.

    Growing strategic focus on online products and services Depends on consumer acceptance

    Rely on a limited number of manufactures

    Liquidity maybe insufficient to meet the long-term or periodic needs

  • SeasonalitySource: 2012 10k

  • SWOT analysis

    StrengthWeaknessesPortfolio of patents

    Strong operating record

    Strong growth in LeapFrog school houseHighly dependent on few manufacturers

    Pending litigation

    Client concentrationOpportunitiesThreatsStrong cash reserves facilitate new product development

    Growing ESOL (English to Speakers of Other Languages) population in US

    Leverage strategic relationshipsCompetition

    Seasonal fluctuations

    Absence of long-term agreements with retailers

  • Management OutlookA number of changes to executive management team during 2012 and 2011

    Anticipate continued business growth at a pace ahead of the market with net sales expected to increase at high single digit percentage growth rate

    Plan to make long-term investments in content, international expansion, online communities, systems and new platforms

  • Major Shareholders

    Source: Yahoo finance

    Top Institutional Investors (over 5%)Wellington Management Company, LLP6,363,0819.8662,612,717Jun 30, 2013Wells Fargo & Company4,539,5157.0344,668,827Jun 30, 2013Franklin Resources, Inc4,285,9706.6442,173,944Jun 30, 2013Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)3,811,1295.9135,900,835Sep 30, 2013

  • Major ShareholdersWell known financial institutions

    Source: Yahoo finance

    Top Mutual Fund HoldersFranklin Templeton-Templeton Global Smaller Companies Fund2,663,3804.1325,089,039Sep 30, 2013Templeton Global Smaller Companies Fund, Inc. (USA)2,663,3804.1325,621,715Aug 31, 2013Oppenheimer Global Opportunities Fund2,500,0003.8724,600,000Jun 30, 2013Wells Fargo Advantage Discovery Fd2,254,8003.4921,691,176Aug 31, 20

  • Key People

    Mr. John Barbour, Chief Executive Officer, Director and Member of Non-executive Officer Stock Award Committee

    Raymond L. Arthur, Chief Financial Officer

    Gregory B. Ahearn, Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President

    Source: Businessweek

  • Recent Financial Information

    Source: Capital IQ

  • Recent Financial Information

    Source: Capital IQ

  • Financial Analysis

  • Financial Analysis

  • Financial Analysis

  • Recent Stock PerformanceSource: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance

    MetricValueCurrent Price $8.13Trailing P/E7.03Forward P/E20.64Market Cap ($mil)$560.32

  • Valuation WACC Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg

  • Valuation DCF

  • Valuation Comps.Source: Capital IQ

  • Comps. Stock ChartSource: Yahoo Finance

  • Decision Drivers

    StrengthsClimbing Revenues Strong Cash PositionHighly specializedDCF ($8.57)

    ConcernsRaising competition from big playersSeasonal fluctuations

  • RecommendationHold

  • Questions?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-declined-in-november-to-two-year-low.htmlhttp://www.toyassociation.org/TIA/Industry_Facts/Population_Data/IndustryFacts/Population_Data/Youth_Population_Projections.aspx?hkey=5f0d47ce-261f-4f06-9675-41382d6eb18c****