leapfrog enterprises inc
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Leapfrog Enterprises Inc. November 14, 2013 Yi Liu, Ye Liang, Charalampos Ntantanis, Caleb Pierson. Agenda. Company Background Current Position Macroeconomic Outlook Industry Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation. Current Position. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Leapfrog Enterprises Inc.November 14, 2013
Yi Liu, Ye Liang, Charalampos Ntantanis, Caleb Pierson
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AgendaCompany Background
Current Position
Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Overview
Financial Analysis
Valuation
Recommendation
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Current Position
RCMP recommended for purchase 2000 shares @ market (8.20) which resulted in buying 2000 shares @ $8.19 on April 5, 2013
Current Stock price is $8.13
This is an unrealized loss of 0.73%
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Macroeconomic OutlookWorld (and U.S.) population is growing across the toy consumer age rangeDollars spent on toys increased 7.68% from 2007 to 2012Youth electronics decreased slightly from 2011 to 2012Nostalgic/Retro toys are making a big push this year
The Consumer Sentiment Index is at the lowest point since 2011
Bloomberg News and Toy Industry Association Inc.
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Industry OverviewThe U.S. Toy market was worth $22 billion in 2012
Industry products include dolls/action figures, models, construction kits, scooters, board games, game consoles
Small companies are able to compete alongside larger businesses by focusing on niche products and by reacting more quickly to new trends
Source: Hoovers
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5 Forces for Toys and GamesSource: Marketline
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Source: Marketline5 Forces Analysis
Buyer PowerSupplier PowerThreat of New EntrantsThreat of SubstitutesDegree of RivalryModerateModerateModerateHighHighIndividuals have relatively little impact Few large manufacturesPatents help protect ideas Knock off goodsMany companies offer productsCost of switching is lowSuppliers are unlikely to forward integrateEasy to self produce and marketCost of switching is lowShort lived popularity
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Company OverviewLeapfrog trades on the NYSE with ticker symbol LF
Company was founded in 1995 by Michael Wood and Robert Lally and headquartered in Emeryville, California USA
Focus: Educational Entertainment for Children
Employees: 552 people on a full-time basisSource: Company Website and 2012 10k
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Business Segments and OperationsUnited States: 73%, 75%, 80% in 2012, 2011and 2010
Three large retailers: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Toys R Us, Inc. and Target Corporation
InternationalUnited Kingdom, France, Canada, Mexico, Australia, South Africa and Spain.Source: 2012 10k
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Product PortfolioSource: Company Website
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Product PortfolioCurrently sell 2 versions of LeapPad, 2 hand held computers (GS and the Explorer), 2 sets of eBooks (Tag and the Tag junior), learning toys, and iPhone and iPad apps
LeapPads -- $120GS and Explorer -- $70eBooks -- $25 to $170 bundlesToys -- $10 to $25Apps -- $0.99
Source: Company Website
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Risk FactorsHighly seasonal Approximately 75% of total sales to retailers to occur during the third and fourth quarters.
Growing strategic focus on online products and services Depends on consumer acceptance
Rely on a limited number of manufactures
Liquidity maybe insufficient to meet the long-term or periodic needs
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SeasonalitySource: 2012 10k
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SWOT analysis
StrengthWeaknessesPortfolio of patents
Strong operating record
Strong growth in LeapFrog school houseHighly dependent on few manufacturers
Pending litigation
Client concentrationOpportunitiesThreatsStrong cash reserves facilitate new product development
Growing ESOL (English to Speakers of Other Languages) population in US
Leverage strategic relationshipsCompetition
Seasonal fluctuations
Absence of long-term agreements with retailers
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Management OutlookA number of changes to executive management team during 2012 and 2011
Anticipate continued business growth at a pace ahead of the market with net sales expected to increase at high single digit percentage growth rate
Plan to make long-term investments in content, international expansion, online communities, systems and new platforms
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Major Shareholders
Source: Yahoo finance
Top Institutional Investors (over 5%)Wellington Management Company, LLP6,363,0819.8662,612,717Jun 30, 2013Wells Fargo & Company4,539,5157.0344,668,827Jun 30, 2013Franklin Resources, Inc4,285,9706.6442,173,944Jun 30, 2013Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)3,811,1295.9135,900,835Sep 30, 2013
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Major ShareholdersWell known financial institutions
Source: Yahoo finance
Top Mutual Fund HoldersFranklin Templeton-Templeton Global Smaller Companies Fund2,663,3804.1325,089,039Sep 30, 2013Templeton Global Smaller Companies Fund, Inc. (USA)2,663,3804.1325,621,715Aug 31, 2013Oppenheimer Global Opportunities Fund2,500,0003.8724,600,000Jun 30, 2013Wells Fargo Advantage Discovery Fd2,254,8003.4921,691,176Aug 31, 20
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Key People
Mr. John Barbour, Chief Executive Officer, Director and Member of Non-executive Officer Stock Award Committee
Raymond L. Arthur, Chief Financial Officer
Gregory B. Ahearn, Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President
Source: Businessweek
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Recent Financial Information
Source: Capital IQ
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Recent Financial Information
Source: Capital IQ
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Financial Analysis
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Financial Analysis
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Financial Analysis
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Recent Stock PerformanceSource: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
MetricValueCurrent Price $8.13Trailing P/E7.03Forward P/E20.64Market Cap ($mil)$560.32
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Valuation WACC Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
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Valuation DCF
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Valuation Comps.Source: Capital IQ
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Comps. Stock ChartSource: Yahoo Finance
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Decision Drivers
StrengthsClimbing Revenues Strong Cash PositionHighly specializedDCF ($8.57)
ConcernsRaising competition from big playersSeasonal fluctuations
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RecommendationHold
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Questions?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-declined-in-november-to-two-year-low.htmlhttp://www.toyassociation.org/TIA/Industry_Facts/Population_Data/IndustryFacts/Population_Data/Youth_Population_Projections.aspx?hkey=5f0d47ce-261f-4f06-9675-41382d6eb18c****