lecture 1- emission production

8/10/2019 Lecture 1- Emission Production

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KXGM 6302ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Emission Production


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Introduction

There is growing scientific evidence of an increase in green

house gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere since

preindustrial times contributing to rising global temperatures

and to changes in climate patterns.

The primary source of these increased atmospheric GHG

concentrations have come from fossil-fuel burning and other

human activities.

These emissions have continued to increase in recent years.


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Introduction

Thus, emission and climate-change mitigation have become an

increasingly important topic for researchers and policymakers.

However, establishing any effective policies and measures to

reduce CO2emissions from primary sector requiresunderstanding of trends and factors affecting these emissions.


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Emission and Pollutant

Burning fossil fuels and some human activities are release the

emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2),

nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) which can

cause greenhouse gas emission effect, acid rain and other

negative impact to environmental and humankind.

Carbon dioxide (CO2), is a colorless, odorless gas and

produced when any form of carbon is burned in an excess of

oxygen. CO2

is the largest contributor of greenhouse effect out

of all the gasses produce by human activities.


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Sulfur dioxides (SO2) is a colorless gas, from the family ofsulfur oxides (SOx) which is produced in various industrialprocesses.

Since coal and petroleum often contain sulfur compounds, their

combustion generates sulfur dioxide.

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless, poisonous gas.CO is a product of incomplete burning of hydrocarbon-basedfuels. During normal combustion, each atom of carbon in the

burning fuel joins with two atoms of oxygen forming a harmlessgas.

When there is a lack of oxygen during the combustion of thefuel, each atom of carbon links up with only one atom ofoxygen forming carbon monoxide gas.


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Nitrogen oxide (NOx) are from nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen

dioxide (NO2). NO is a colorless, flammable gas with a slight

odor. NO2 is a nonflammable gas with a detectable smell and in

certain concentration will highly toxic, which can cause serious

lung damage in long time . NO2is plays a major role in theatmospheric reactions that produce ozone or smog. In the

atmosphere, NO2will mix with water vapor producing nitric acid

and deposited as acid rain.


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Global primary energy consumption

1: British Petroleum, BP Statistical review of world energy. British: BP Plc; 2008


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Fossil fuel

The energy consumption is mainly based on fossil fuels which

account for 88.1% whereby with crude oil consisting of 34.8%,

coal 29.2% and natural gas 24.1%.

Power generation which includes both electricity and heatgeneration is one of the major sources of CO2emissions from

fossil-fuel combustion.

The share of power generation in global energy-related CO2emissions has increased from 36% (8.8Gt CO2) in 1990 to 41%

(11.0Gt CO2) in 2005 and if the current trends continues this

share is projected to increase to 45% (18.7Gt CO2) in 2030

(International Energy Agency).


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Global CO2emission

1: British Petroleum, BP Statistical review of world energy. British: BP Plc; 2008


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Global CO2emission

The major contributor of the greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide

emissions and the trend has been increasing every year.

It is predicted that carbon dioxide emission will increase to 40

billion tons in year 2030 if no effort are thrown in to mitigate it.

It is believed that CO2emission will continue to climb as long

as fossil fuels remain as the main contributor in the energy mix.


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Primary Energy use in Malaysia

Source:NEB, National Energy Balance 2008. Selangor, Malaysia:Malaysia Energy Centre; 2009.


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Primary Energy use in Malaysia

Industrial sector is the major energy consumption with a

record of 19.1Mtoe and followed closely by transportation

sector which is mostly powered by petroleum products.

The future energy demand expected to grow at an annual

growth rate of 57.9% for the next 20 years

Thus, energy security is becoming a serious issue asfossil fuels are non-renewable energy and will deplete

eventually in near future.


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Case study- Electricity emission


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Introduction

The electricity generation is one of the main contributors for

emission in the country.

A conventional power stations burn fossil fuels to produce

electricity. Burning fossil fuels is releases the emissions such

as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide(NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) which cause greenhouse gas

emission effect, acid rain and other negative impact to

environmental.

Thus, the objective of this case study is to predict the emission

pattern of the electricity generation.


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Survey data

Year Total

(GWh)

1970 2175

1980 7912

1990 19 469

1991 21 442

1997 49 080

2000 52 3002010 105 762

2020 195 253

Table 1.1

Electricity generation data in Malaysia

Source: Economic Planning Unit. Study on energy policy analysis and

planning to the year 2020. Prime Minister Department, Kuala Lumpur,

Malaysia.


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Survey data

Year Coal

(%)

Petroleum

(%)

Gas

(%)

Hydro

(%)

2000 15.00 5.00 70.00 10.00

2010 18.00 2.00 50.00 30.00

2020 29.00 1.00 40.00 30.00

Table 1.2

Percentage of electricity generation based on fuel types

Source: Department of Electricity & Gas Supply. Statistics of electricity

supply industry in Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.


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Survey data

Fuels Emission (kg/kWh)

CO2 SO2 NOx CO

Coal 1.18 0.0139 0.0052 0.0002

Petroleum 0.85 0.0164 0.0025 0.0002

Gas 0.53 0.0005 0.0009 0.0005

Hydro 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Other 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Table 1.3

CO2, SO2, NOxand CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit electricity generation

Source: Jaafar MZ, Yusop YM. Malaysian energy sector and current energy

supply and demand forecasting, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia


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Methodology

Schwartz states that scenarios are tools for ordering perceptions

about alternative future environments and the end result might not

be an accurate picture of tomorrow, but can give a better decision

about the future.

This analysis is generally based on modeling methodologies to

figure out the potential emissions from electricity generation in the

future.

The electricity pattern and percentage type of fuel use for

electricity generation should be identified. Some of the data are

already available but others have to be calculated with respect to

the country electricity consumption trend.


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Methodology

The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is

polynomial curve fitting.

The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between

variable xas the function of available data and a response y.Which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fit the data,

but does not necessarily pass through any data points.

Mathematically, a polynomial of order kin xis expressed in thefollowing form:


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Methodology

The pattern of potential emission production is depend on the

fuel use for the electricity generation. The common emissions

are consisting CO2, SO2, NOxand CO.

Thus, emission pattern of the electricity generation can becalculated by the following equation:


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Data Analysis

Based on the data shown in Table 1.1, using Eq. (1), the total

energy consumption from year 2002 to year 2020 can be

predicted by the following equation:

Based on the data shown in Table 1.2, using Eq. (1), the fuel mix of

electricity generation from the year 2002 to 2020 can be predicted.

The percentage of coal used for electricity generation can be



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Data Analysis

The percentage of petroleum used for electricity generation can be


The percentage of gas uses of electricity generation can be predicted

by the following equation:

The percentage of hydropower uses of electricity generation can be



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Data Analysis

The predicted results data based on Equations (3) - (7)

are tabulated in Table 1.4 and Figure1.1Year Total

(GWh)

Coal

(%)

Petroleu

m

(%)

Gas

(%)

Hydro

(%)

2002 66159 14.96 4.24 65.20 15.60

2003 71368 15.06 3.89 62.95 18.10

2004 76779 15.24 3.56 60.80 20.40

2005 82390 15.50 3.25 58.75 22.50

2006 88203 15.84 2.96 56.80 24.40

2007 94217 16.26 2.69 54.95 26.10

2008 100433 16.76 2.44 53.20 27.60

2009 106850 17.34 2.21 51.55 28.90

2010 113468 18.00 2.00 50.00 30.00

2011 120287 18.74 1.81 48.55 30.902012 127308 19.56 1.64 47.20 31.60

2013 134530 20.46 1.49 45.95 32.10

2014 141954 21.44 1.36 44.80 32.40

2015 149578 22.50 1.25 43.75 32.50

2016 157404 23.64 1.16 42.80 32.40

2017 165431 24.86 1.09 41.95 32.10

2018 173660 26.16 1.04 41.20 31.60

2019 182090 27.54 1.01 40.55 30.90

2020 190721 29.00 1.00 40.00 30.00

Table 1.4

Predicted electricity consumption and

percentage fuel mix of electricity

generation


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Hydro

Gas

Petroleum

Coal

Fig 1.1. Predicted electricity consumption and percentage fuel mix for

electricity generation


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Results

The pattern of emissions is a function of the total energy

consumption multiplied by the percentage of fuel mix and the

amount of emissions by the fossil fuel from every unit of

electricity generation.


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Results

Year Emissions production (Ton)

CO2 SO2 NO2 CO

2002 36 925 190 205 146 97 301 24 108

2003 38 853 310 217 390 103 264 25 168

2004 40 871 919 230 813 109 693 26 228

2005 42 999 341 245 625 116 664 27 292

2006 45 258 018 262 069 124 267 28 366

2007 47 670 787 280 395 132 593 29 457

2008 50 263 503 300 877 141 743 30 572

2009 53 062 992 323 804 151 821 31 718

2010 56 098 579 349 481 162 940 32 906

2011 59 401 570 378 236 175 220 34 143

2012 63 005 748 410 416 188 788 35 4432013 66 945 895 446 377 203 775 36 814

2014 71 259 772 486 505 220 324 38 271

2015 75 985 624 531 189 238 577 39 825

2016 81 165 687 580 852 258 690 41 492

2017 86 842 673 635 925 280 822 43 285

2018 93 062 310 696 863 305 141 45 221

2019 99 871 266 764 132 331 819 47 316

2020 107 318 707 838 219 361 035 49 587

Table 1.5

Potential emissions production by electricity generation


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Conclusion

The emissions from electricity generation contributed thelargest emission to the country.

The study also shows that emissions pattern from electricity

generation of fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as hydropoweroffers a solution and multiple benefits to utility, society andmost important for the environment protection.

Government intervention to reduce these emissions is urgently

needed at the present.

The data from the study can be a basis for calculating costbenefit analysis for implementation of new renewable sourcesfor electricity generation and emission mitigation program.


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Appendix

Notation

lecture 1- emission production

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