lecture 1 - kasetsart universityfin.bus.ku.ac.th/131211 business finance/lecture slides... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Time Value of Money
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Lecture 1
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4-1
Contact: Natt Koowattanatianchai
Email:
Homepage:
http://fin.bus.ku.ac.th/nattawoot.htm
Phone:
02-9428777 Ext. 1218
Mobile:
087- 5393525
Office:
9th Floor, KBS Building, Kasetsart University
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4-2
Outline
1 Valuation: The One-Period Case
2 The Multiperiod Case
3 Annuities
4 Applications
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4-3
References
Ross, S., Westerfield, R. and Jaffe, J.
(2013), Corporate Finance (10th Edition),
McGraw Hill/Irvin. (Chapter 4)
Moyer, R.C., McGuigan, J.R., and Rao,
R.P. (2015), Contemporary Financial
Management (13th Edition), Cengage
Learning. (Chapter 5)
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4-4
The One-Period Case
If you were to invest $10,000 at 5-percent interest for one year, your investment would grow to $10,500.
$500 would be interest ($10,000 × .05)
$10,000 is the principal repayment ($10,000 × 1)
$10,500 is the total due. It can be calculated as:
$10,500 = $10,000×(1.05)
The total amount due at the end of the investment is call the Future Value (FV).
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4-5
Future Value
In the one-period case, the formula for FV can
be written as:
FV = C0×(1 + r)
Where C0 is cash flow today (time zero), and
r is the appropriate interest rate.
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4-6
Present Value
If you were to be promised $10,000 due in one year
when interest rates are 5-percent, your investment
would be worth $9,523.81 in today’s dollars.
05.1
000,10$81.523,9$
The amount that a borrower would need to set aside
today to be able to meet the promised payment of
$10,000 in one year is called the Present Value (PV).
Note that $10,000 = $9,523.81×(1.05).
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4-7
Present Value
In the one-period case, the formula for PV can be written as:
r
CPV
1
1
Where C1 is cash flow at date 1, and
r is the appropriate interest rate.
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4-8
The Multiperiod Case
Types of Interest
Simple Interest
Interest paid on the principal sum only
Compound Interest
Interest paid on the principal and on prior interest that
has not been paid or withdrawn
Usually assumed in this course
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4-9
4.2 The Multiperiod Case
The general formula for the future value of an investment over many periods can be written as:
FV = C0×(1 + r)T
Where
C0 is cash flow at date 0,
r is the appropriate interest rate, and
T is the number of periods over which the cash is invested.
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4-10
Future Value
Suppose a stock currently pays a dividend of
$1.10, which is expected to grow at 40% per
year for the next five years.
What will the dividend be in five years?
FV = C0×(1 + r)T
$5.92 = $1.10×(1.40)5
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4-11
Future Value and Compounding
Notice that the dividend in year five, $5.92,
is considerably higher than the sum of the
original dividend plus five increases of 40-
percent on the original $1.10 dividend:
$5.92 > $1.10 + 5×[$1.10×.40] = $3.30
This is due to compounding.
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4-12
Future Value and Compounding
0 1 2 3 4 5
10.1$
3)40.1(10.1$
02.3$
)40.1(10.1$
54.1$
2)40.1(10.1$
16.2$
5)40.1(10.1$
92.5$
4)40.1(10.1$
23.4$
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4-13
Present Value and Discounting
How much would an investor have to set
aside today in order to have $20,000 five
years from now if the current rate is 15%?
0 1 2 3 4 5
$20,000PV
5)15.1(
000,20$53.943,9$
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4-14
Finding the Number of PeriodsIf we deposit $5,000 today in an account paying 10%,
how long does it take to grow to $10,000?TrCFV )1(0 T)10.1(000,5$000,10$
2000,5$
000,10$)10.1( T
)2ln()10.1ln( T
years 27.70953.0
6931.0
)10.1ln(
)2ln(T
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4-15
Assume the total cost of a college education will be $50,000 when your child enters college in 12 years. You have $5,000 to invest today. What rate of interest must you earn on your investment to cover the cost of your child’s education?
What Rate Is Enough?
TrCFV )1(0 12)1(000,5$000,50$ r
10000,5$
000,50$)1( 12 r 12110)1( r
2115.12115.1110 121 r
About 21.15%.
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4-16
Multiple Cash Flows
Consider an investment that pays $200 one
year from now, with cash flows increasing by
$200 per year through year 4. If the interest
rate is 12%, what is the present value of this
stream of cash flows?
If the issuer offers this investment for $1,500,
should you purchase it?
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4-17
Multiple Cash Flows
0 1 2 3 4
200 400 600 800178.57
318.88
427.07
508.41
1,432.93
Present Value < Cost → Do Not Purchase
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4-18
4.3 Compounding Periods
Compounding an investment m times a year for
T years provides for future value of wealth:
Tm
m
rCFV
10
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4-19
Compounding Periods
For example, if you invest $50 for 3 years at
12% compounded semi-annually, your
investment will grow to
93.70$)06.1(50$2
12.150$ 6
32
FV
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4-20
Effective Annual Rates of Interest
A reasonable question to ask in the above
example is “what is the effective annual rate of
interest on that investment?”
The Effective Annual Rate (EAR) of interest is
the annual rate that would give us the same
end-of-investment wealth after 3 years:
93.70$)06.1(50$)2
12.1(50$ 632 FV
93.70$)1(50$ 3 EAR
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4-21
Effective Annual Rates of Interest
So, investing at 12.36% compounded annually
is the same as investing at 12% compounded
semi-annually.
93.70$)1(50$ 3 EARFV
50$
93.70$)1( 3 EAR
1236.150$
93.70$31
EAR
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4-22
Effective Annual Rates of Interest
Find the Effective Annual Rate (EAR) of an
18% APR loan that is compounded monthly.
What we have is a loan with a monthly
interest rate rate of 1½%.
This is equivalent to a loan with an annual
interest rate of 19.56%.
1956.1)015.1(12
18.11 12
12
m
m
r
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4-23
Continuous Compounding
The general formula for the future value of an investment compounded continuously over many periods can be written as:
FV = C0×erT
Where
C0 is cash flow at date 0,
r is the stated annual interest rate,
T is the number of years, and
e is a transcendental number approximately equal to 2.718. ex is a key on your calculator.
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4-24
4.4 Simplifications
Perpetuity
A constant stream of cash flows that lasts forever
Growing perpetuity
A stream of cash flows that grows at a constant rate
forever
Annuity
A stream of constant cash flows that lasts for a fixed
number of periods
Growing annuity
A stream of cash flows that grows at a constant rate for
a fixed number of periods
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4-25
Perpetuity
A constant stream of cash flows that lasts forever
0
…1
C
2
C
3
C
32 )1()1()1( r
C
r
C
r
CPV
r
CPV
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4-26
Perpetuity: Example
What is the value of a British consol that
promises to pay £15 every year for ever?
The interest rate is 10-percent.
0
…
1
£15
2
£15
3
£15
£15010.
£15PV
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4-27
Growing Perpetuity
A growing stream of cash flows that lasts forever
0
…
1
C
2
C×(1+g)
3
C ×(1+g)2
3
2
2 )1(
)1(
)1(
)1(
)1( r
gC
r
gC
r
CPV
gr
CPV
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4-28
Growing Perpetuity: Example
The expected dividend next year is $1.30, and dividends are expected to grow at 5% forever.
If the discount rate is 10%, what is the value of this promised dividend stream?
0
…
1
$1.30
2
$1.30×(1.05)
3
$1.30 ×(1.05)2
00.26$05.10.
30.1$
PV
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4-29
Annuity
A constant stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity
0 1
C
2
C
3
C
Tr
C
r
C
r
C
r
CPV
)1()1()1()1( 32
Trr
CPV
)1(
11
T
C
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4-30
Annuity: Example
If you can afford a $400 monthly car payment, how much car can you afford if interest rates are 7% on 36-month loans?
0 1
$400
2
$400
3
$400
59.954,12$)1207.1(
11
12/07.
400$36
PV
36
$400
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4-31
What is the present value of a four-year annuity of $100 per
year that makes its first payment two years from today if the
discount rate is 9%?
22.297$09.1
97.327$
0PV
0 1 2 3 4 5
$100 $100 $100 $100$323.97$297.22
97.323$)09.1(
100$
)09.1(
100$
)09.1(
100$
)09.1(
100$
)09.1(
100$4321
4
1
1 t
tPV
4-31
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4-32
Growing Annuity
A growing stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity
0 1
C
T
T
r
gC
r
gC
r
CPV
)1(
)1(
)1(
)1(
)1(
1
2
T
r
g
gr
CPV
)1(
11
2
C×(1+g)
3
C ×(1+g)2
T
C×(1+g)T-1
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4-33
Growing Annuity: Example
A defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per year for 40 years and increase the annual payment by 3% each year. What is the present value at retirement if the discount rate is 10%?
0 1
$20,000
57.121,265$10.1
03.11
03.10.
000,20$40
PV
2
$20,000×(1.03)
40
$20,000×(1.03)39
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4-34
Growing Annuity: ExampleYou are evaluating an income generating property. Net rent is
received at the end of each year. The first year's rent is
expected to be $8,500, and rent is expected to increase 7%
each year. What is the present value of the estimated income
stream over the first 5 years if the discount rate is 12%?
0 1 2 3 4 5
500,8$
)07.1(500,8$
2)07.1(500,8$
095,9$ 65.731,9$
3)07.1(500,8$
87.412,10$
4)07.1(500,8$
77.141,11$
$34,706.26
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4-35
Growing Annuity: ExampleYou are evaluating an income generating property. Net rent is
received at the end of each year. The first year's rent is
expected to be $8,500, and rent is expected to increase 7%
each year. What is the present value of the estimated income
stream over the first 5 years if the discount rate is 12%?
0 1 2 3 4 5
500,8$
)07.1(500,8$
2)07.1(500,8$
095,9$ 65.731,9$
3)07.1(500,8$
87.412,10$
4)07.1(500,8$
77.141,11$
$34,706.26
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Questions?