leveraging foresight and roadmap approaches...
TRANSCRIPT
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
LEVERAGING FORESIGHT AND ROADMAP APPROACHES TO SUPPORTOCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) DEVELOPMENT
IN MALAYSIA
Suzanne Ong Gui Xian
M. Phil Candidate
Malaysia Japan International Institute of Technology
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER, 20151
Main Supervisor:
Dr. Akbariah Mahdzir
Malaysia Japan International Institute of Technology
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Co-Supervisor:
Dr. Aini Suzana Ariffin
Perdana School of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Contents
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Research Problem
Objective
Research Design
Proposed Roadmap Presentation
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Megatrend: Energy Scenario
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Source: Prof. Maulud (2014)
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 20154
What will be the most dominant energy carrier in 21st century?
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Source: Ibrahim Dincer (2008)
HYDROGEN
OILCOAL
NG
MOST DOMINANT ENERGY CARRIER IN 21ST CENTURY?
Note: Chilled WaterLiquid N2, Liquid CO2
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Fig. 1. Evolution of global market shares of different final- energy carriers for the period 1990-2100 based
on the scenario by Barreto et al. The alcohols category includes methanol and ethanol
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OTEC 0 0 134 2,848 7,884 15,768 27,594 47,304 59,129
Fuel Cell 0 0 16 354 1,665 4,054 11,603 27,782 53,194
Bioenergy 809 1,455 1,567 4,088 7,553 12,535 14,832 17,823 21,049
Wind Energy 0 0 547 1,095 2,601 5,913 10,052 14,520 18,922
Solar PV 7 437 790 1,579 2,631 3,999 6,314 9,502 11,913
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 12,264 12,264 12,264 12,264 11,650
Wave/ Tidal/ Current 0 0 219 548 751 3,548 5,868 7,603 9,662
Hydropower 9,056 9,084 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531
Geothermal 0 0 216 382 531 1,264 2,122 3,174 4,318
Fossil Fuel 124,596 134,571 151,656 165,891 165,388 169,623 169,661 155,798 146,047
Total 134,468 145,547 164,675 186,316 210,800 238,500 269,841 305,300 345,417
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
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Electricity Generation by Energy Source, GWh
Source: ASM TF CFE (2015)
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OTEC 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.7 6.6 10.2 15.5 17.1
Fuel Cell 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 4.3 9.1 15.4
Bioenergy 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.1
Wind Energy 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.5
Solar PV 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4
Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.4
Wave/ Tidal/ Current 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.8
Hydropower 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.8
Geothermal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3
Fossil Fuel 92.7 92.5 92.1 89.0 78.5 71.1 62.9 51.0 42.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Source: ASM TF CFE (2015)
Shares of Energy Sources in Electricity Generation, %
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Research Objectives
To explore landscape and readiness for Malaysia in developing the OTEC industry
To propose an OTEC- Hydrogen Industry Roadmap.
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1.
2.
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Research Design
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OTEC Roadmap Conceptualization & Development For Malaysia
Qualitative Approach
Case Study Method
Roadmapping and Complexity Theory
Development
Interview Protocol
Data Collection 1 Data Collection 2 Data Collection 3
Report Writing Report Writing Report Writing
Constant Comparative Analysis
Develop Proposed Roadmap
Technique:
[Doc Analysis, Environmental
Scanning Seminar, Focus
group, Semi-structured interview]
Develop Roadmap
TemplateCase Selection
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Strategic Landscape
Kehoe, (2013) reiterates that a,
“―multi-national vision, strategy and collaboration is needed to; conduct fundamental and applied OTEC research, develop a stable market
structure for OTEC, identify areas suitable for development, perform in situ environmental studies, build a trained OTEC workforce, contracting services and infrastructure, improve performance and reduce costs, and
resolve grid integration issues.”
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Foresight for OTEC Development
Anticipating & managing change
Enables stakeholders
to wisely create their futures
Systematic, participatory and interactive approach
Policy implications
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Roadmaps and Development
Companies and governments in France, Japan, the Philippinesand South Korea have developed roadmaps for OTEC or Ocean Energy development
Source: (Brochard, 2013; Marasigan, 2013; Kim and Yeo, 2013; Okamura, 2013)
Indonesia is mapping its OTEC potential, and the Philippines has been considering feed-in tariffs for OTEC.
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Source: (Suprijo, 2012; NREB, 2012)
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Hydrogen is a high-value OTEC product
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Main Market Drivers
Socialand
economic factors.
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Driver
Government support is one of the most important requirements for pushing the OTEC industry with hydrogen as a
product.
Policy could be used as a tool to prompt a new market.
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 201521
Source: Prof Wan Ramli Wan Daud (2006)
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Future Direction for OTEC-Hydrogen Integration Measures
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(CURRENT)
2015:
Phase 1
Dramatic expansion
of hydrogen
awareness and use
(Full fledged
introduction of fuel
cells into society)
2020:
Phase 2
Full-fledged
introduction of
hydrogen power
generation/
Establishment of a
large scale system
for supplying
hydrogen
2030
Phase 3
Establishment of a
hydrogen supply
system throughout
the manufacturing
process
Anticipating energy demand growth
1.
2.
3.
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Legal & regulation
University courses on sustainable energy ie. OTEC, H2 commercial
uses, H2 exports
Electrolysis
Joint research-Uni & RI
Hydrogen and OTEC
companies
Research grants on cost effective process for H2
harvesting
UTM-OTEC
CenterReforming
Subsidized H2 for
consumer
Advertisement on busses
Ammonia (fertilizer
industry), electricity, oil refining
Bus Boats
Hydrogen pipeline
Supplying het &
electricity
Hydrogen bomb
Strategic Landscape Roadmap for OTEC Product: HydrogenShort Term (2015)Timelines Medium Term (2016 – 2020) Long Term (2021 – 2030)
Applications
Technology
Trends
and
Drivers
Programs/
Projects
Advanced materials Efficient, robust, reliable Cheaper
Superconductor (more efficient process) Intelligent sensor- wiper, lights, air con
Use carbon nano tubes (for storage)
Standards Safety compliance
Resources
Advertisement/ Promotions:
Awareness through
movies, dramas &
entertainment; ie. Interstellar
promotes
wormholes, blackholes, etc.
Regulatory:
Policy & Industry incentives to
encourage OTEC technology
adoption
Human Resource: H2 logistic experts, H2 harvest engineers
Standards:
Adapt from
oil & gas
Financial: Loan-
manufacturing
plant; gov fund;
R&D in advanced
materials
Industrial
Domestic
(Wild Cards)
Transport
Government
Support
Research
Strategic
Alliance
Advertiseme
nts/
Promotions
Heat Exchanger
Electrolysis
Storage and
Transport
Standards &
Testing
Financial:
“Duit zakat”, “Sukuk” and
bonds to secure financial
resources
Environment: Hydrogen as energy source reduces pollution
Social: Public & stakeholder awareness, Safety concerns, Pollution (from cars), Health risk assessment
Technology: Hydrogen commercialized technology still at introduction lifecycle, OTEC the most feasible source of H2, Improvisations in conversion tech favour H2 as energy carrier
Economic: Fossil fuel still affordable, leveraging sustainable competitive advantages of various companies
Political: No policy on OTEC, Government incentives & initiatives needed; political ownership needed, COP15
Full industrial usage via
centralized pipelinesCost effective H2 tanks & pipelines advanced
material such as carbon nano tubes
Hydrogen for normal
fusion, cold fusion
Cooking gas
Unmanned plane, deep ocean vessel Cars (Mass acceptance)
Piping companies
Infrastructure
Piping and transport
VISION:
Hydrogen to be an
attractive and
competi-tive
energy source 1
VISION: OTEC to
help fulfill the
hydrogen economy
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 201524
Hydrogen
OTEC
2015 2020 2030
20MW 850MW 2,500MW
Future Landscape for OTEC-Hydrogen Integration
(CURRENT)
Phase 1
Dramatic
expansion of
hydrogen
awareness and
use
Phase 2
Full-fledged
introduction of
hydrogen power
generation/
Establishment of a
large scale system
for supplying
hydrogen
Phase 3
Establishment of a
hydrogen supply system
throughout the
manufacturing process
Technology Readiness of OTEC
“A less than 10 MWe floating, closed-cycle
OTEC facility is technically feasible using
current
design, manufacturing, deployment
techniques and materials." Nancy E.
Kinner, Ph.D.(2009)
“Ocean energy” incorporated in
11th Malaysia Plan (2016-2020)
Year 2018:
Offshore 10 MWe net is to be
commissioned
[Refer presentation by Mr Thierry
Bouchet of DCNS]
Legal
No legal provision specifically govern
Ocean Thermal Energy per se, but
existing laws are sufficient for OTEC
activity
CDR approach
[Refer presentation by
Dato’ Bakar of UTM OTEC]
CDR
Table
TE
CH
NO
LO
GY
LE
GA
L/
PO
LIC
Y
Source: Dato’ Ir
Dr A Bakar
Jaafar, ASM CFE
Workshop (2015)
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 201525
Year Capacity (MW)
Growth Rate (%)
Remark
2020 20 - 2x10 MW public-private RMK-11
2025 850 - For 7% reduction in carbon intensity
2030 2500 14 To match nuclear power
2035 5000 14 To match nuclear power
2040 10000 14 To meet H2 demand
2045 20000 14
2050 40000 14 [As at 24 April 2015]
Revised after ASM CFE Workshop
Source: Dato’ Ir Dr A Bakar Jaafar
Projected Growth in Capacity: OTEC in Malaysia 2020-2050
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
OTEC’s Strategic Lens: Why Hydrogen?
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Why Hydrogen?
Resource Proximity
Electricity uptake
limitationCheaper!
Deep waters
far from land
Electricity uptake
limited by
existence of deep
water O&G
production-
surplus (produce
H2)
H2 from
renewable
cheaper than H2
from fossil fuels.
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 201527
Hydrogen Economy
OTEC technology
development &
commercialization
5 year plan
2020 20302015
(Current)
Establishment of a
large scale system
for supplying
hydrogen
Establishment of a
hydrogen supply
system throughout
the manufacturing
process
SUMMARY
OTEC
3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
CONCLUSION
• OTEC benefits far outweigh the costs
• Roadmap sheds light on policy directions, priorities, and strategies on energy supply
• Very strong case for the growth & development of OTEC
• Significant insights and call to action for policy makers, power producers, industry and consumers
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3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015
Invest in OTEC for our future!
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