LiteratureWhat other scholars have to offer

Alternative Methods

• It's always good to check the robustness!

Main Method

• Bread and Peace (Hibbs)

Alternatives

• Political Business Cycles (Nordhaus)

• Macroeconomy driven by elections• Manipulation by policy tools to boost

chances• Endogenous election timing a function

of economy (Berument)

Alternatives

• Econometrics and Presidential Elections (Fair)

• Kramer: voter behavior depends on economy

• Republican/Democrat

• V= a1 + a2t + a3I+ a4DPER + a5g*I + a6p*I + u

Alternatives

• Time-for-Change Model (Abramowitz)

• A referendum on the incumbent's performance

• Robust results (2% margin for 2008)

• Noneconomic (political) and economic variables

Alternatives

• Economics and Elections in W. Europe (Chappel, Veiga)

• 13 countries 37 years

• Political responsibility + economic perception

Alternatives

• Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts (Erikson, Wlezien)

• Hibbsian

Endogeneity/Exogeneity

• Surfing on the cycles

• Exogenous: create a cycle

• Endogenous: surf a cycle

• The effects of GDP Growth only

The End of Economic Voting?

• Check whether political responsibility is more important through the other theories.

• Some alternatives (PBCs and OETs)

• Hibbs is generally accepted

• Challenges to robustness

• Political Implications