lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... results... · lorem ipsum dolor sit...

17
Q4FY20 Results Review 1 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisLorem ipsum Q4FY20 Results Review 18-July-2020

Upload: others

Post on 21-Jul-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

1

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh

euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam,

quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat,

vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisLorem ipsum

Q4FY20 Results Review

18-July-2020

Page 2: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

2

The quarter gone by:

The financial performance of the Indian Corporate sector in Q4FY2020 was primarily hurt by consumer and commodity-linked sectors, both of which were impacted significantly as the pandemic started spreading rapidly.

Tepid realisations driven by softening commodity prices, coupled with subdued volumes in light of the pandemic outbreak and macroeconomic slowdown, resulted in revenue contraction for major commodity sectors, including oil and gas, metals & mining and iron & steel.

Sales for Nifty 50 constituents fell 5.1% on-year basis after falling 1.6% and 2.4% in the previous two quarters. Earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization in the March quarter slipped 4.8% from the previous year, registering the first fall in 11 quarters. Similarly, profit after tax (PAT) nose-dived 20% to register a fall for the first time since the June quarter of the financial year 2018.

Nifty EPS for FY20 has come in at Rs.471. For FY21 and FY22, brokerages have begun cutting estimates and most expect +9/-6% growth in FY21 EPS followed by 32-38% rise in FY22 EPS.

Earnings were largely hit by the coronavirus pandemic. 31 of the 50 constituents of Nifty reported a PAT decline on-year basis in the March quarter.

The ability of Indian companies to meet interest payments from their earnings worsened in the March quarter, coinciding with a slowing economy, a Mint analysis of Capitaline data showed. The interest coverage ratio (ICR) of 311 companies in the BSE 500 index fell to 2.73 in the March quarter, the lowest in at least 24 quarters, from 3.89 in the December quarter and 4.48 a year ago.

India’s Gross domestic product grew by a slower pace of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019-20, showed data released by the Central Statistics Office

As demand remained weak, net sales and profit, adjusted for one-time profit or loss, slumped to 20-quarter low for the three months ended 31 March from a year earlier, showed a Mint analysis of 1,536 listed companies. In March quarter, net sales fell 8.84% (year-on-year), a 20-quarter low while adjusted net profit declined 33.58% (YoY). Decline in raw materials cost and lower tax outgo for these companies, which excludes banks, financials and oil & gas, could not help in supporting earnings growth.

On the sectoral front, key highlights include healthy ARPUs reported by all operators in the telecom space given calibrated price hikes and increasing reliance on digital economy amid Covid outbreak. Banking sector results for Q4FY20 were highlighted by Covid provisions ranging from 0.2-1% of advances and moratorium on loans being ~20-30% for large lenders & ~35-70% for mid-sized lenders. In the cement space, outperformance was witnessed tracking expansion in operating margins amidst higher realisations. In the auto pack, given the 20%+ decline in volumes, most companies reported a muted operating result.

Page 3: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

3

DIIs’ holding in Indian equities rose to a record high of 14.8 per cent in the March 2020 quarter. DIIs’ holding has reached to nearly one-third of the total free-float market capitalisation of the BSE-500 index. FII holding fell by 70 basis points to 21.5 per cent in the BSE 500 index. FIIs sold Indian shares worth $7.54 billion, while another $7.36 billion was sold in debt instruments in March.

Sectoral comment:

Agrochem/Fertilisers

Agrochemical companies reported 16% YoY revenue growth, primarily on better performance by UPL, Bayer Cropscience, Dhanuka Agritech and Insecticides India.

Fertiliser companies reported robust volume growth of 20%+ YoY on the back of low base and high demand during the Rabi season.

The US, a high-margin geography, has seen a sharp contraction in demand, due to the US-China trade tensions. Despite this, UPL revenue from North America increased 45% YoY. Europe, another high-margin geography, has witnessed muted demand, due to unfavourable climatic conditions.

Aggregate EBITDA margin universe expanded by 250bp YoY while EBITDA registered growth of 36% YoY.

MSP for most crops has increased by 3-8%, which has encouraged farmers to go ahead with early sowing of crops.

There is likely to be a shortage in pesticides during the Kharif season as manufacturing plants are still operating at only 70% utilization level. As a result, prices of key herbicides have already increased by 8-10%.

Automobiles/Auto Ancillaries

During Q4FY20 Auto companies saw revenue decline of over 20% YoY, driven by a weak demand, changeover to BSVI and lockdown at the end of Mar-20. Management commentary clearly highlighted the benefit of low commodity prices during the quarter; however, the benefits of lower costs couldn't be translated into a bottom-line improvement due to operating deleverage.

The lockdown toward end-Mar’20 resulted in volume decline of 23%/25%/52%/8% for 2Ws/PVs/CVs/Tractors.

2W OEMs delivered decent performance with gross margin expansion of ~160bp YoY. This was despite sharp decline in volumes and high discounts, driven by cost-cutting initiatives and benign commodity prices.

All tyre companies reported QoQ margin expansion primarily led by lower RM cost. MRF relatively outperformed peers on revenue growth YoY, led by higher replacement mix vs peers and lower exposure to the CV segment.

Battery firms reported mixed results, as Amara Raja Batteries posted revenue and EBITDA growth above estimates while Exide India posted below estimates.

As per SIAM, the PV industry is likely to decline by ~20% to 24% if GDP falls below 1%, 2W is likely to fall in the range of ~27-30% while CV is likely to drop by ~32-35% in FY21E.

Page 4: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

4

Battery firms are likely to benefit from recovery in the automotive replacement segment post the lockdown. Tyre companies are likely to show improvement in margin in Q2FY21, led by benign RM prices.

Aviation

Domestic passenger demand was down only 7% in Q4FY20 from 5% YoY growth in Q3FY20 despite the COVID-19 outbreak, which has disrupted aviation and Q4 being a seasonally weak quarter.

PLF of airlines in the domestic segment has been steady at ~86% in Q4FY20 as COVID-19 has disrupted travel since February.

The passenger yield improved marginally by 0.5% YoY in Q4FY20, as the last two weeks in March were adversely affected by the lockdown imposed from 24 March.

Crude price volatility, which has resulted in prices of ~USD 40/bbl, is a positive for the sector; however, as consumption has reduced, lower crude prices have not been passed on in terms of domestic ATF cost.

The next 1-2 years, focus will be on resuming capacity to pre-COVID-19 levels, reducing non-fuel cost and continuing to build customer confidence.

Banks & Financials

Private banks posted higher credit book expansion vs state-owned banks. Liquidity is in abundance for large banks while they are looking for safe avenues for investment. Excess cash is being deployed into investment wherein banks are incurring a hit on margin.

Loan growth moderated across segments led by the weak macro environment.

Yield as well as cost of funds have declined for banks as the RBI has significantly cut the repo rate over the past few months.

Disparity among banks deposit as well as savings account (SA) rates is widening wherein a few large private banks and PSB are offering lower rates on SA while on the contrary, a few mid-sized private banks are offering higher SA as well as term deposit rates to attract customers.

All banks had to take a hit on P&L due to COVID-19 related provisions.

Asset quality improved for most banks aided by the RBI’s relaxation around the moratorium book. Managements have refrained from giving any guidance due to recovery of economic activity still being in a nascent stage.

Disbursements for vehicle financiers were down meaningfully not just due to the impact of the lockdown but also due to the transition to BS-VI norms from 1st Apr’20. On account of the latter, BS-IV vehicle inventory at the dealer level was sparse. Disbursements for two large vehicle financiers were down 9%/36% YoY.

Moratorium rate for all three players was 75%+.

Among diversified financiers, Bajaj Finance was an outlier delivering 27% YoY AUM growth. Wholesale-heavy NBFCs such as Piramal, AB Cap and L&T FH continued the rundown of their loan books. In addition, GNPL ratio increased meaningfully for Piramal and AB Cap on account of slippages from some corporate accounts.

Page 5: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

5

Demand for gold loans is robust more than ever supported by ease of availability of funds to end customers compared to other NBFCs/ banks and change of perception of gold loan NBFCs.

While the economic slowdown was already taking toll on Housing Finance companies’ (HFC) growth with majority of them already going slow in non-housing space, the nationwide lockdown in last week of March added to the problem. Margins were stable except for LIC HF. Asset quality deteriorated however HDFC has made prudent provisioning. Amongst the small HFCs Canfin reported better performance with improvement in margins and stable asset quality.

Business growth of life insurance companies moderated and mix of protection business continues to rise. The share of the protection business (total APE basis) stood at 18.5% for HDFC Life and at 17.8% for IPRU Life. Though business growth witnessed a decline, VNB (Value of New Business) margins expanded for IPRU Life, led by higher protection mix while it moderated slightly for HDFC Life due to lower mix of Non-Par Savings products compared to the previous quarter.

Credit growth is likely to be muted during the current financial year due to slower GDP growth expectations post COVID-19.

Speedy resolution of DHFL would be viewed as a positive for the industry. However, the degree of haircut is to be watched. Any deterioration in credit quality of unsecured retail lending can emerge as a major negative, given bulk of incremental retail credit over the past few quarters has been to this vertical.

The trend in collection efficiency (banks highlighted improving collection trends in May-Jun’20) as the economy starts to recover would be an important metric to assess the health of the banking system in the near term.

Building products

The building materials universe posted dismal sales performance in Q4 due to lockdown impacting significant sales which is skewed in last 15 days of the month in March in a seasonally peak season leading to 17% YoY decline in revenues.

EBITDA declined by 11% in Q4 while the net profit decline was steeper at 26% YoY.

Volume growth in most of the companies stood at flat to lower single digit during the quarter. Realizations have remained flattish or dipped slightly due to fall in RM prices which was partially passed on.

Both Kajaria and Somany reported higher volume decline due to skewed sales in the month of March impacted by shutdown.

Performance of pipe companies was relatively better operationally as they got benefitted by steeper decline in RM prices.

Capital Goods /Engineering

While overall revenue for capital goods sector declined 7% YoY, the miss was largely on account of BHEL (-51% YoY). Excluding BHEL, aggregate revenue was flattish on YoY basis. Bharat Electronics demonstrated strong execution capability with ~50% YoY growth in revenues.

Page 6: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

6

Operating profit declined steeply by 23% YoY. Higher fixed costs coupled with loss of sales came down heavily on the operating performance, with sharp decline in operating profit reported across the board. BHEL reported operating losses in 4QFY20.

Order inflows stood flat YoY due to the soft macro environment coupled with shutdown, which affected ordering activity. Orders declined 59% YoY for Bharat Electronics, 41% YoY for KEC International, 19% YoY for Siemens, and 18% YoY for Thermax. L&T and ABB India stood out as exceptions reporting 5%/10% YoY growth in order inflows.

Cement

Cement companies reported Topline/EBITDA/PAT growth of -11%/+1%/ +3% YoY during Q4

Q4FY20 volumes for cement companies were down 13% YoY, due to the nation-wide lockdown and plant shutdowns from 24th Mar’20 to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), Apr’20 volumes plunged by 86% YoY. May’20 saw some recovery in volumes with a decline of only 22% YoY. Most companies in the post-results management calls reported utilization currently improving to 70-80% as demand is strong in rural/semi-urban areas with lower COVID-19 cases.

EBITDA/ton improved 18% YoY (18% QoQ), led by 3% YoY increase in realization and 1% YoY (2% QoQ) decline in cost/ton. Cost/ton declined due to savings in fuel and raw material cost.

The COVID-19 pandemic has dented the prospects for the Indian Cement sector. All India clinker utilization is expected to drop to 62%/72% in FY21/FY22E (from 79% in FY19) on account of 3.5% capacity CAGR addition amid weak expected volumes.

While Volume outlook is uncertain for FY21, savings from cost and strong realisation can still take care of the profitability.

Consumer Discretionary/Durables

Most companies in the Consumer Durables universe reported lower volumes due to higher-than-expected impact of the COVID-19 led lockdown in Mar’20, which led to sudden disruptions in manufacturing/supply chain/demand.

Consumer durables companies were impacted disproportionately by the COVID-19 related lockdown as ~25% of Mar’20 sales was lost in the one-week lockdown in March. The only exception was Voltas.

Domestic sales of paints companies contracted in the range of 8-14%, led by a decline in realization due to downtrading while volumes grew in the low single digits, led by double-digit growth during January-mid March 2020.

Ad spends and new launches are expected to remain lower than usual in the first few months of FY21 as companies await signs of sustained revival.

Fall in crude oil prices aided margins of HPC (home and personal care) and paint companies.

Page 7: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

7

Following the Q4FY20 results, management commentary did not indicate material pickup in demand for Q1FY21. In fact, for most companies, the impact in Q1FY21 on sales and earnings growth could be worse than the impact in Q4FY20.

With significant share of migrant labour returning to villages (lower end of consumption shifting to rural), expectations of good monsoons, and MGNREGA wage increase, most companies appear hopeful of healthy rural demand vis-à-vis the uncertain urban demand.

Consumer staples

Q4 performance of F&B (Food and Beverages) category was visibly better than the home & personal care categories, due to revival over January-February in rural consumption and also hoarding by consumers before the nationwide lockdown. Revival was particularly visible in rural demand, but was later hit by the pandemic, leading to a halt in economic activities in the last week of March.

Nestle maintained its performance in a challenging environment. During the quarter both HUL and ITC reported volume decline of 7% YoY and 11% YoY respectively.

Dairy companies saw a gross margin contraction of ~400-500bp, led by an increase in milk prices. However, this reversed in Q1FY21, leading to surplus milk and consequent fall in prices, down 25% YoY.

Near-term demand outlook continues to be challenging for personal care products because of rising COVID-19 cases and hence restricted movement. However, with good Rabi crop money post-harvest and due to 35-40% of area already been sown for Kharif, the production outlook is strong in H2FY21 and will lead to increased consumption from the rural markets.

Information Technology

Aggregate sales grew 3.9% YoY (weakest in the past few years) to USD16b in Q4FY20. Deceleration of growth was broad-based as the key markets of the US/Europe grew ~5% YoY (USD) each.

EBIT margin for Tier I contracted 40bp QoQ (-80bp YoY) to 21%. Tier II EBIT margin expansion of 80bp QoQ (-70 bp YoY) was a key positive. Aggregate EBIT / PAT grew by ~5%/0% YoY.

Deal wins saw mixed performance. Deal pipeline saw an improvement for few companies in early Q1FY21.

Recent commentaries and Annual Report (released in Apr’20) of global banks such as Citi, JPM, BoA and DB suggest that while banks will face some cost pressure they will continue to invest in Technology to make operations resilient, enable digital banking and leverage it to reduce costs in other areas. Retail (non-essential), Travel, Manufacturing, Energy verticals are expected to see high impact.

Though impact in the US/Europe was only for a few weeks in the quarter, companies saw slight dip of 30bp QoQ in median utilization (for the sector, including trainees) due to demand-supply mismatch. Median attrition saw marginal decline of 10bp QoQ for the sector and is expected to decline further in the coming quarters.

Page 8: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

8

Supply side issues have improved as pending client approvals were received in early Q1FY21. However, impact of demand side challenges are expected to increase in Q1FY21 as clients reprioritized IT spends to enable resiliency and reduced discretionary spends.

Metals and Mining

Steel companies reported better profitability sequentially as industry margins bottomed out, driven by an increase in realizations. Performances, however, remained weak on a YoY basis.

The volumes of steel companies were down 13% YoY in Q4FY20, weighed by the nationwide lockdown implemented from Mar 24 to combat COVID-19.

On the back of higher realizations QoQ, the margins of steel companies improved sequentially.

NSRs (Net Sales Realisation) for aluminium companies (Nalco, Hindalco, and Vedanta) declined in line with lower LME prices. Volumes were impacted due to the nationwide lockdown from Mar 24, which resulted in QoQ decline in aluminium volumes. However, the reduction in cost of production was visible across companies due to their lower input commodity costs (particularly energy costs), resulting in margin improvement.

Muted demand in the short term due to the corona virus and trade tensions between the US and China remain an overhang on metal prices.

Media

TV broadcasting firms continue to underperform in terms of ad revenue, which has dragged, given macroeconomic headwinds, consumption slowdown until Q3 and COVID-19 lockdown, leading to ad spend cut across key verticals, such as FMCG, BFSI & real estate.

Within the broadcasting segment, subscription revenue has been strong, led by delay in implementation of NTO 2.0. Select news channel reported sharper YoY jump in broadcasting revenue on the back of a sharp surge in viewership for news genre.

Box office collection for exhibitors declined sharply for the first time by 26% YoY (average for PVR Cinemas and Inox Leisure), due to a sharp drop in footfalls by 29% YoY amid the lockdown, which was partly offset by the increase in gross average ticket prices.

Radio companies reported a sharp decline in revenue, with Music Broadcast reporting a decline by 44% YoY vs Entertainment Network, which witnessed a 16.1% dip in the radio segment, due to the lockdown, coupled with weak economic trends having an adverse impact on overall demand environment across industries and consequent ad spend cuts in major verticals. The government vertical remains a key drag on the radio segment, with no signs of revival in the near term.

Oil & Gas

Revenues (-5.1% YoY) were primarily driven by the better-than-expected refining margins of OMCs.

Page 9: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

9

The Singapore GRM further declined to USD1.2/bbl in the quarter, primarily led by the worsening of gasoline and ATF cracks. Diesel cracks also witnessed demand issues, and averaged lower at USD9.7/bbl (v/s USD11.7/bbl in Q4FY19).

Refineries in India suffered huge inventory loss as crude oil prices tumbled to multi-year lows by the end of the quarter.

With the COVID-19 impact already felt much before the lockdown was implemented, the CNG segment saw a huge impact on volumes; thus, IGL (-1% YoY) and MAHGL (-7% YoY) reported lower volumes during the quarter. However Gujarat Gas volumes were higher 53% YoY, driven by strong industrial performance in Q4FY20. EBITDA/scm for all three CGD companies expanded both YoY and QoQ, led by lower spot prices and revision in PMT gas prices to APM gas prices in Jan 20.

Pharma

Following one of its best quarters in recent years in Q3FY20, Indian pharma continued with its steady performance in Q4. Domestic business was strong for both acute and chronic therapies while US business was also stable as it benefitted from lower price erosion and stable-to-increasing market share.

Most companies have seen an EBITDA improvement. Sun Pharma saw the biggest jump in EBITDA margin by ~ 430bp YoY, which can be largely attributed to lower R&D expenses. Cipla saw the most contraction in margin by ~730bp, due to deferment of sales. Lupin saw a contraction in margin by ~640bp, primarily due to a sharp drop in gross margins.

MNC pharma companies’ reported numbers that were relatively softer as most companies' topline was impacted by the lockdown. Among the MNCs, AstraZeneca was an outperformer on a YoY basis but declined sharply QoQ, while GSK reported YoY as well as sharp quarterly growth and Abbott was down double digits QoQ.

In the past few months, the US FDA has cleared 10-15 facilities. These facilities, which are under warning letter, may have to undergo a re-inspection; however, companies may see faster review of CAPA submitted.

Firms with higher proportion of sales from formulations exports to the US and the EU as well as API exports and India-focused manufacturing activities stand to be key beneficiaries.

Ports & Logistics

Logistics Companies reported aggregate Sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of -3%/+7%/-13%/-15%YoY respectively. The industry which was already reeling through the perils of weak macro was hit hard due to lockdowns post the outbreak of COVID.

Some of the Companies have indicated that by end of June, revenue run rate has picked to 70-80% of the normal.

Logistics sector, a direct beneficiary of growing economy, would over the next few quarters gain traction as macro turns favourable and benefits from DFC, GST and E-way bill percolate for the organized space.

Page 10: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

10

Power

India’s power demand grew 1.9% YoY in Q4FY20 vs 1.6% in Q4FY19 despite the lockdown in the second half of March, primarily due to high growth registered over January-February 2020.

Conventional electricity generation came in flat YoY in Q4FY20 on COVID-19 led disruption witnessed in the latter half of March. Coal-based generation declined ~2% YoY for the quarter, although gas/hydro generation was up ~3%/14% YoY. Growth in renewable generation remained robust at 16% YoY for the quarter, led by higher solar generation, given its must-run status.

Low prices at power exchanges have discouraged DISCOM from executing long-term PPA, which has led to stranded capacity. The average merchant power prices at Indian Energy Exchange stood at Rs2.74/unit. This was ~3% lower QoQ and ~14% lower YoY.

Power demand in the short term is expected to be muted, due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Also, disruptions in the supply chain and logistics, including disruptions in billing and collections for DISCOM, continue to be impacted.

Real Estate

Q4FY20 performances by real estate companies have been mixed. The country's residential real estate market which was looking up in some markets got disrupted in March 2020 due to COVID19.

The quarter saw steady sales velocity in Bengaluru and Pune market despite lockdown in March, reflecting the strong momentum in January and February.

All the companies witnessed healthy collections and growth in collections. The robust collections were on the back of robust sales and steady construction work, which started in FY19 continued in FY20.

Malls even now in most cities continue to be closed. Most of the mall operators agreed to give partial/complete waivers of rental for the period of lockdown and change in rental structure for the remaining of FY21.

FY21 is going to be challenging for real estate. The evolving situation of COVID19 outbreak will be monitored as surge in COVID19 cases in a city may disrupt operations. Retail assets would continue to see subdued consumption with no sign of relaxation of lockdown in key cities such as Mumbai, Gurugram, Pune and Chennai.

Retail

During Q4FY20, the retail business came to a standstill amid the fear of Covid-19 from end of Feb'20 and nationwide lockdown from Mid-March'20.

Revenues of retail companies increased 12% YoY in Q4FY20, on account of outliers DMart and Trent, which saw sales growth of 24% and 8% YoY, respectively while others posted a decline.

Page 11: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

11

EBITDA fell by 32% YoY due to high fixed cost structures. DMart was the outlier with 4% YoY growth in EBITDA. Trent saw EBITDA jump of 1.8x YoY on account of better revenue and realignment of cost items due to IND-AS 116 reporting standard.

The majority of retailers have guided that their rental cost may be shifted on a variable basis for FY21, with a reduction in other fixed costs such as SG&A and employee costs. They have further guided for adaptability to newer demand, such as masks, casual wear, and comfort home wear.

Telecom

While most sectors bore the brunt of the COVID-19-led nationwide lockdown, the Telecom sector was up and running with minimal impact. Operators witnessed marginal revenue impact due to revenue loss from feature phone subscribers.

To reduce debt and improve profitability, telecom companies took a collective price hike by ~30% in Dec’19, seeing its partial benefit in Q3FY20 earnings. The major benefit of this decision accrued in Q4FY20. Price increase, along with a better subscriber mix, led to Bharti/Vodafone Idea (VIL)’s QoQ ARPU increasing 14%/11% to Rs154/Rs121. However, RJio’s ARPU increased by a mere 2% to Rs131.

A revenue/EBITDA increase, led by higher ARPU, curtailed loss before tax for Bharti/VIL; on the contrary, RJio’s PBT grew 57% QoQ to Rs29b.

VIL continues to see subscriber churn to Bharti/RJio, attributed to noise around the shutdown. In Q4FY20, RJio witnessed healthy 17.5m net subscriber additions. Bharti saw strong 12.5m net 4G subscriber adds, while VIL witnessed loss of 12.9m subscribers.

Debt remains a key concern for all telecom companies, and the AGR penalty is adding to woes. Bharti raised USD3b to service its AGR liabilities. VIL’s net debt of over Rs 1 trillion and limited cash to service operations remains a key concern.

The way ahead:

According to Crisil, India is likely to permanently lose 4% of its GDP or Rs 9 lakh crore in nominal value due to the Covid-19 pandemic in FY21.

The monetary actions of central banks (cut in repo rates, limited or unlimited purchases of all sorts of bonds) have attracted corporates, households to take more risks and thus, revive the economy.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon from June 01 to July 02 was 13% above long period average.

In FY21, India’s trade and current account balance could benefit out of a sharp fall in crude oil prices even as the core import demand remains subdued.

While the Rupee will track direction of other emerging countries over FY21, it could do better than the other emerging markets due to relatively stronger external vulnerability matrices. The RBI will however intervene to prevent Rupee appreciation amid sharp BoP surplus.

Page 12: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

12

In the second half of the calendar year, economic revival may happen in a normal way from October onwards though minor recovery has already started to happen. Till that time we may keep seeing Covid-19 cases resurfacing in different forms in different parts of the country preventing complete lifting of lockdown.

We remain cautious on the markets for the rest of 2020 given the shaky fiscal situation, rising joblessness and time taken for most parts of economy to go to previous normal. Also there remains a fear that stress in the financial sector may sooner or later spread to the real sector.

Agri based industries - seeds, fertilisers, agrochemicals due to healthy monsoon expected, Pharma, cement and telecom are some sectors that could do well over the next few months.

(Source:HDFCSec Research, websites, news, broker reports)

The shortlist The following is the list of companies that have released results in Q4FY20 that were good on one or more of the following parameters:

Sales growth - YoY / QoQ

PBT and OPM growth - YoY / QoQ

P/E on 4Q trailing EPS (Consolidated P/E provided wherever available)

Profit growth in this quarter is not due to the impact of an exceptionally benevolent commodity cycle or lumpy sales. Profit growth is not exceptionally more than sales growth

Healthy RoE

Healthy CAGR growth in sales, EBITDA and PAT over three / five years

The companies have been listed in alphabetical order, and do not reflect our recommendation/buys or even preference in that order. Many of these companies may not be under our coverage.

All figures provided below are in Rs cr (except FV, CMP, BV & EPS). OPM and growth numbers are in %. OPM has been calculated without other income (OI) and EPS is based on the trailing twelve months (TTM) adjusted PAT.

Co_Name Industry

Net Sales

Mar 20

PBT Mar 20

Latest Equity CMP BV FV EPS

Growth in Sales

YoY

Growth in PBT

YoY Growth in Sales QoQ

Growth in PBT QoQ

OPM% w/o OI -Mar 20

OPM% w/o OI - Dec 19

OPM% w/o OI –Mar 19

P/E on TTM EPS P/BV

Div Yield Latest

3M India* Trading 673.2 72.0 11.3 21053.5 1841.0 10 285.9 -9.4% -23.3% -9.7% -25.4% 11.3% 13.1% 13.8% 73.6 11.4 0.0%

Aarti Drugs* Pharmaceuticals 449.6 60.7 23.3 1488.3 266.9 10 59.2 -2.1% 52.8% -5.0% 40.9% 15.9% 13.4% 12.2% 25.2 5.6 0.1%

AAVAS Financiers* Finance - Housing 234.4 66.1 78.3 1301.4 267.9 10 31.8 14.7% -14.0% -2.1% -17.8% 71.8% 75.5% 73.9% 40.9 4.9 0.0%

ADF Foods* Food - Processing 79.7 17.3 20.0 293.0 115.4 10 21.5 24.4% 170.4% 13.2% 53.8% 16.8% 13.1% 19.3% 13.6 2.5 1.0%

Page 13: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

13

Co_Name Industry

Net Sales

Mar 20

PBT Mar 20

Latest Equity CMP BV FV EPS

Growth in Sales

YoY

Growth in PBT

YoY Growth in Sales QoQ

Growth in PBT QoQ

OPM% w/o OI -Mar 20

OPM% w/o OI - Dec 19

OPM% w/o OI –Mar 19

P/E on TTM EPS P/BV

Div Yield Latest

Agarwal Indl.* Petrochemicals - Others 310.4 13.3 10.3 85.3 141.8 10 24.9 64.4% 58.5% 91.2% 162.3% 5.3% 5.7% 6.6% 3.4 0.6 0.0%

AGC Networks* Telecommunications 1249.7 38.7 29.8 319.7 29.9 10 52.6 1.4% 138.5% -0.6% 188.0% 7.0% 1.0% -5.3% 6.1 10.7 0.0%

Ajanta Pharma* Pharmaceuticals 682.0 175.9 17.5 1461.0 282.1 2 53.6 32.4% 61.1% 4.7% 0.4% 21.8% 28.5% 24.7% 27.2 5.2 0.9%

AksharChem (I) Dyes - Intermediate 69.7 8.5 8.2 222.5 323.5 10 19.2 -13.0% 56.4% 25.0% 167.7% 14.7% 9.1% 6.7% 11.6 0.7 1.6%

Alembic Pharma* Pharmaceuticals 1206.8 265.7 37.7 976.9 177.5 2 45.7 30.2% 81.5% -0.2% -3.8% 23.3% 26.9% 19.2% 21.4 5.5 1.0%

Alkem Lab* Pharmaceuticals 2049.0 235.3 23.9 2496.5 525.3 2 94.3 10.6% 18.4% -6.1% -41.8% 14.8% 20.8% 12.6% 26.5 4.8 1.0%

Alkyl Amines* Chemicals - Organic 234.8 61.1 10.2 2300.1 263.1 5 93.2 -1.1% 93.6% -8.6% -25.4% 28.8% 28.2% 16.2% 24.7 8.7 0.4%

Apollo Hospitals* Hospitals / Medical Serv 2922.4 283.6 69.6 1499.2 266.8 5 22.2 16.9% 153.5% 0.4% 95.2% 13.0% 14.8% 11.2% 67.6 5.6 0.4%

Ashoka Buildcon* Engineering 1584.2 179.8 140.4 57.7 92.6 5 5.7 -0.8% 228.1% 23.7% 155.1% 29.9% 29.5% 23.0% 10.2 0.6 0.0%

Assoc.Alcohols Distilleries 132.2 14.0 18.1 240.7 108.0 10 27.3 13.8% 47.1% -6.5% -36.6% 12.5% 18.0% 9.2% 8.8 2.2 0.4%

Astec Lifescienc* Pesticides / Agrochemicals 180.6 39.6 19.6 964.9 125.9 10 24.3 35.0% 96.0% 44.7% 153.9% 23.6% 16.7% 17.3% 39.7 7.7 0.2%

Atul* Dyes And Pigments 965.5 188.4 29.7 4641.1 1035.2 10 224.7 -8.7% 8.3% -7.3% -17.0% 19.5% 23.9% 19.2% 20.7 4.5 0.6%

Aurobindo Pharma* Pharmaceuticals 6063.4 1077.5 58.6 836.7 222.3 1 48.7 16.6% 32.0% 4.6% 14.9% 21.4% 20.6% 19.6% 17.2 3.8 0.4%

Bajaj Auto* Automobiles 6610.9 1764.9 289.4 2995.1 688.6 10 180.1 -8.5% -10.8% -11.1% 1.9% 18.9% 18.4% 17.0% 16.6 4.3 4.0%

Bajaj Healthcare Pharmaceuticals 118.5 14.0 13.8 302.5 80.7 10 11.6 NA NA 19.4% 51.8% 13.4% 13.7% NA 13.1 3.75 0.00%

Balaji Amines* Chemicals - Organic 258.0 40.8 6.5 596.9 206.1 2 32.3 13.9% 3.3% 13.4% 39.9% 21.6% 18.8% 20.9% 18.5 2.9 0.5%

Banco Products* Auto Ancillaries 326.4 29.7 14.3 83.5 74.8 2 10.7 -9.6% 99.9% 4.4% 84.9% 10.3% 6.1% 6.0% 7.8 1.1 9.6%

Bharat Bijlee Electric Equipment 260.1 21.6 5.7 768.6 1336.8 10 80.7 -4.8% 52.5% 5.3% 2.5% 7.8% 8.6% 4.6% 9.5 0.6 1.6%

Bharat Dynamics Engineering - Light 1416.7 400.4 183.3 392.4 142.2 10 29.2 64.8% 174.8% 186.0% 539.7% 28.6% 10.8% 14.0% 13.4 2.8 2.2%

Bharat Electron* Electronics - Others 5728.6 1420.1 243.7 98.0 40.4 1 7.5 51.4% 60.9% 162.5% 376.1% 26.1% 16.3% 25.3% 13.1 2.4 2.9%

Bharat Parenter.* Pharmaceuticals 54.8 7.3 5.7 334.0 214.9 10 42.1 29.9% 19.0% -26.0% -39.6% 12.6% 15.0% 9.8% 7.9 1.6 0.0%

Bharat Rasayan Pesticides / Agrochemicals 271.0 46.4 4.3 9230.4 1327.3 10 376.7 -0.5% 23.6% 21.0% 33.8% 17.6% 19.0% 16.9% 24.5 7.0 0.0%

Birlasoft Ltd* Computers - Software 907.1 110.9 55.3 108.5 43.7 2 8.1 15.1% 37.1% 8.9% 9.6% 12.9% 12.9% 7.9% 13.4 2.5 2.8%

Can Fin Homes Finance - Housing 528.8 118.9 26.6 357.4 161.5 2 28.2 14.4% 2.9% 2.3% -18.3% 86.7% 94.4% 93.0% 12.7 2.2 0.6%

Caplin Point Lab* Pharmaceuticals 215.2 64.9 15.1 386.2 68.5 2 28.4 14.9% 6.9% -5.7% -6.8% 25.0% 29.7% 34.6% 13.6 5.6 0.1%

Chamanlal Setia Food - Proccesing - Rice 223.2 27.5 10.4 68.0 52.8 2 10.1 0.9% 468.2% 16.7% 24.7% 13.7% 11.8% 4.0% 6.7 1.3 0.0%

Cigniti Tech.* Computers - Software 233.0 33.2 27.9 259.7 105.5 10 43.7 12.9% 34.2% 7.5% 12.7% 13.5% 13.2% 14.0% 5.9 2.5 0.0%

Cochin Shipyard* Ship - Breaking / Repairing 816.7 183.3 131.5 334.6 283.7 10 48.1 3.6% 15.2% -8.9% -19.7% 19.9% 22.1% 13.9% 7.0 1.2 5.0%

Coromandel Inter* Fertilizers 2869.3 314.2 29.3 774.6 149.7 1 36.3 8.8% 91.9% -12.5% -11.4% 13.6% 13.2% 9.7% 21.3 5.2 1.5%

Page 14: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

14

Co_Name Industry

Net Sales

Mar 20

PBT Mar 20

Latest Equity CMP BV FV EPS

Growth in Sales

YoY

Growth in PBT

YoY Growth in Sales QoQ

Growth in PBT QoQ

OPM% w/o OI -Mar 20

OPM% w/o OI - Dec 19

OPM% w/o OI –Mar 19

P/E on TTM EPS P/BV

Div Yield Latest

Cupid Contraceptives / Protecti 41.3 13.9 13.3 211.0 77.6 10 29.9 11.8% 121.3% -3.9% 6.1% 35.8% 32.4% 17.4% 7.1 2.7 0.0%

Deepak Nitrite* Chemicals 1055.5 200.9 27.3 529.3 109.3 2 44.8 4.7% 42.3% -5.7% -4.8% 24.8% 23.1% 19.2% 11.8 4.8 0.9%

Dilip Buildcon* Construction 2729.7 259.2 136.8 280.4 263.7 10 22.1 6.1% 159.2% 6.4% 88.4% 21.3% 21.1% 18.6% 12.7 1.1 0.4%

Divi's Lab.* Pharmaceuticals 1389.7 471.0 53.1 2262.7 275.6 2 51.9 9.7% 13.5% -0.5% -3.4% 32.0% 35.4% 32.9% 43.6 8.2 0.7%

Dixon Technolog.* Electronics 857.4 37.3 11.6 6450.2 444.4 10 104.1 -0.2% 52.6% -13.7% 5.1% 6.5% 5.2% 4.4% 61.9 14.5 0.1%

Esab India Electrodes 175.0 25.6 15.4 1345.6 219.5 10 46.4 -3.3% 8.9% 3.4% 8.2% 14.3% 13.8% 13.4% 29.0 6.1 5.2%

Escorts* Automobiles - Tractors 1385.7 179.2 122.6 1104.5 283.9 10 39.1 -16.0% 3.7% -16.0% -15.1% 13.0% 12.9% 11.1% 28.2 3.9 0.2%

Everest Organics Pharmaceuticals 46.3 3.6 8.0 169.3 37.6 10 13.6 -11.1% -13.1% 16.6% 27.5% 10.2% 10.1% 10.2% 12.4 4.5 0.0%

Expleo Solutions* Computers - Software 75.7 17.4 10.3 276.3 112.4 10 38.9 15.5% 37.9% 11.0% 21.3% 20.9% 17.2% 19.1% 7.1 2.5 0.0%

Fairchem Speci.* Chemicals 398.4 61.7 39.1 624.1 32.9 10 37.2 -9.8% -31.4% 2.1% 18.1% 18.3% 19.0% 20.0% 16.8 19.0 0.2%

Frontier Springs Auto Ancillaries 21.8 4.7 4.0 282.5 130.2 10 35.5 -10.6% 44.8% -23.8% -17.9% 22.9% 22.3% 16.2% 8.0 2.2 0.4%

G M Breweries Distilleries 109.0 23.9 18.3 391.6 235.5 10 37.1 -7.1% -29.0% -8.9% 27.7% 17.3% 16.7% 23.8% 10.6 1.7 0.8%

G N F C* Fertilizers - 1342.5 136.5 155.4 161.6 321.3 10 32.7 -6.2% 23.0% 5.1% 2.0% 12.1% 13.1% 7.3% 4.9 0.5 0.0%

GAIL (India)* Gas Distribution 17922.8 3598.7 4510.1 101.0 97.5 10 20.9 -6.0% 61.6% 0.2% 27.8% 15.9% 12.1% 9.2% 4.8 1.0 6.3%

Garware Polyest* Packaging 220.7 35.9 23.2 228.5 598.4 10 37.0 -1.3% 55.8% 9.4% 110.5% 19.8% 11.7% 12.6% 6.2 0.4 4.4%

Garware Tech.* Textiles - Others 252.6 54.8 21.9 1521.9 353.2 10 64.2 -12.8% 7.9% 7.1% 43.1% 21.8% 16.1% 17.6% 23.7 4.3 1.1%

Granules India* Pharmaceuticals 599.9 136.7 25.4 264.1 71.3 1 12.4 -2.2% 62.3% -14.8% 53.8% 16.7% 18.6% 15.9% 21.3 3.7 0.4%

Guj. Themis Bio. Pharmaceuticals 26.4 12.8 7.3 186.1 29.0 5 16.3 154.3% 305.7% -13.9% -11.6% 50.2% 48.8% 15.4% 11.4 6.4 0.9%

Guj.St.Petronet* Gas Distribution 3151.6 598.4 564.1 207.7 119.2 10 30.7 37.2% 54.4% 4.1% 8.4% 24.9% 24.6% 25.4% 6.8 1.7 1.0%

Gujarat Gas* Gas Distribution 2666.6 322.1 137.7 292.8 47.8 2 17.4 39.8% 113.5% 6.4% 21.9% 16.0% 14.8% 13.3% 16.8 6.1 0.4%

HCL Technologies* Computers 18587.0 3885.0 543.0 623.5 137.4 2 40.7 16.2% 22.2% 2.5% 5.4% 26.1% 25.5% 22.5% 15.3 4.5 0.8%

Heidelberg Cem. Cement 509.3 100.6 226.6 175.0 58.0 10 11.8 -4.7% 6.0% -6.8% 17.4% 25.0% 22.0% 23.4% 14.8 3.0 4.3%

Hexaware Tech.* Computers 1541.8 214.7 59.7 355.5 65.3 2 23.2 22.0% 26.5% 0.8% 5.8% 15.2% 15.7% 14.9% 15.3 5.4 2.4%

Honeywell Auto Electronics 704.3 148.9 8.8 28066.9 2464.1 10 554.5 -13.1% 13.1% -21.9% -23.4% 18.3% 20.9% 15.4% 50.6 11.4 0.3%

ICICI Bank* Banks - Private Sector 21740.7 1977.5 1294.8 353.9 175.2 2 14.8 11.5% 17.7% 0.5% -70.8% -24.7% 6.1% -26.9% 23.9 2.0 0.0%

ICICI Lombard General Insurance 2345.6 370.6 454.5 1288.8 132.9 10 26.3 6.7% 7.3% -4.5% -4.9% 12.1% 15.0% 14.1% 49.1 9.7 0.3%

ICICI Securities* Finance - 480.4 207.7 161.1 527.3 37.0 5 16.8 17.7% 10.0% 13.8% 12.2% 52.3% 52.4% 44.7% 31.3 14.3 1.3%

Indiamart Inter.* E-Services 170.1 61.2 28.9 2056.7 94.9 10 51.0 23.3% 81.6% 3.2% 15.0% 30.3% 26.0% 14.6% 40.3 21.7 0.5%

Page 15: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

15

Co_Name Industry

Net Sales

Mar 20

PBT Mar 20

Latest Equity CMP BV FV EPS

Growth in Sales

YoY

Growth in PBT

YoY Growth in Sales QoQ

Growth in PBT QoQ

OPM% w/o OI -Mar 20

OPM% w/o OI - Dec 19

OPM% w/o OI –Mar 19

P/E on TTM EPS P/BV

Div Yield Latest

Indian Energy Ex* Miscellaneous 69.4 57.6 28.8 187.1 13.0 1 6.1 23.0% 8.6% 16.4% 9.4% 75.6% 78.8% 79.3% 30.7 14.4 1.3%

Indraprastha Gas* Gas Distribution 1552.5 388.4 140.0 412.3 72.3 2 17.8 0.6% 16.7% -6.7% -1.1% 24.3% 23.5% 21.5% 23.1 5.7 0.7%

Infosys* Computers - Software 23267.0 5496.0 2122.0 904.0 146.1 5 39.0 8.0% 4.0% 0.8% -6.0% 24.4% 25.1% 23.9% 23.2 6.2 1.9%

J K Cements* Cement 1545.7 240.7 77.3 1411.4 404.9 10 64.7 -1.2% 21.7% 5.0% 36.6% 22.8% 19.7% 18.4% 21.8 3.5 0.5%

Jash Engineering* Pollution Control Equ 88.0 12.7 11.8 152.0 114.6 10 17.0 9.4% 9.0% 15.8% 27.4% 14.3% 18.7% 15.2% 8.9 1.3 0.6%

JK Lakshmi Cem.* Cement 1137.5 140.6 58.9 283.8 145.6 5 22.9 -11.1% 164.6% 5.5% 82.5% 20.6% 16.4% 11.9% 12.4 1.9 0.9%

Jubilant Food.* Food And Dairy Products 908.8 42.1 132.0 1755.9 89.6 10 22.4 4.1% -64.4% -15.2% -69.3% 17.2% 23.7% 16.5% 78.4 19.6 0.3%

Jubilant Life* Pharmaceuticals 2307.3 356.0 15.9 678.9 163.7 1 57.9 -1.9% 990.3% 1.2% 21.4% 23.3% 20.7% 5.2% 11.7 4.1 0.7%

Just Dial* E-Services 235.0 97.5 64.9 373.7 198.4 10 42.0 1.2% 17.9% -0.2% 25.0% 31.7% 28.5% 25.3% 8.9 1.9 0.0%

Kovai Medical Hospitals / Medical Ser 177.1 17.3 10.9 651.1 394.0 10 86.5 11.5% -25.8% -7.4% -56.2% 22.8% 26.5% 20.5% 7.5 1.7 0.5%

KPIT Technologi.* Computers 556.2 47.3 268.9 68.5 37.6 10 5.6 11.0% 20.2% 1.1% -1.9% 12.4% 12.8% 5.4% 12.3 1.8 1.5%

KRBL* Food - Proccesing - Rice 1062.5 201.0 23.5 252.5 132.5 1 23.7 -11.2% 1.8% -20.1% -4.9% 21.5% 18.0% 19.3% 10.6 1.9 1.1%

Kriti Nutrients Solvent Extraction 109.5 2.7 5.0 26.8 17.4 1 3.8 -1.4% -2.9% -23.1% -60.4% 2.4% 5.3% 3.3% 7.0 1.5 0.7%

KSE Food - Processing 378.4 26.0 3.2 1468.7 443.8 10 59.0 25.3% 545.9% 6.7% 120.9% 6.7% 3.4% -2.1% 24.9 3.3 1.4%

L & T Infotech* Computers 3011.9 551.4 17.4 2262.6 300.2 1 87.4 21.2% 9.4% 7.1% 10.3% 19.2% 18.8% 19.2% 25.9 7.5 1.2%

L&T Technology* Computers 1446.6 271.8 20.9 1379.0 250.6 2 78.3 7.7% 7.0% 1.7% -1.0% 18.5% 20.1% 18.5% 17.6 5.5 1.5%

Lincoln Pharma.* Pharmaceuticals 78.5 11.5 20.0 186.9 152.2 10 25.7 -1.1% 45.6% -20.4% -11.3% 11.0% 13.4% 14.2% 7.3 1.2 0.8%

Mahanagar Gas Gas Distribution 686.6 224.7 98.8 993.8 298.9 10 80.3 -5.0% 9.7% -7.8% -8.0% 35.5% 34.8% 29.6% 12.4 3.3 3.5%

Mahindra EPC* Plastics - Drip Irrigation 82.7 12.9 27.8 172.1 61.4 10 8.3 11.7% 60.4% 0.0% 24.2% 16.9% 13.7% 11.6% 20.8 2.8 0.7%

Manappuram Fin.* Finance - Large 1605.3 534.1 169.0 160.5 63.4 2 17.4 39.8% 30.4% 14.7% -1.9% 71.4% 72.7% 68.7% 9.2 2.5 1.4%

Mastek* Computers 336.7 49.3 12.1 423.3 110.2 5 51.8 26.0% 32.1% 38.2% 53.9% 12.1% 11.9% 13.2% 8.2 3.8 1.9%

Mphasis* Computers 2346.2 415.0 186.5 997.9 197.1 10 63.5 15.9% 19.4% 3.0% 7.4% 18.9% 18.8% 16.8% 15.7 5.1 3.5%

Multi Comm. Exc.* Miscellaneous 105.3 64.6 51.0 1343.5 303.2 10 46.4 33.0% 22.0% 17.9% 10.2% 38.6% 43.9% 31.8% 29.0 4.4 2.2%

Muthoot Finance* Finance 2630.5 1127.9 401.0 1202.8 288.6 10 78.3 26.2% 33.5% 1.6% -2.2% 76.3% 76.2% 74.1% 15.4 4.2 1.2%

N R Agarwal Inds Paper - Large 336.9 51.2 17.0 218.9 246.1 10 68.6 -7.2% 125.8% -7.8% 11.3% 18.7% 16.4% 9.3% 3.2 0.9 0.0%

Nava Bharat Vent* Diversified - Large 809.1 198.6 35.3 47.5 167.6 2 20.1 11.5% 19.5% 58.7% 187.5% 29.4% 41.9% 38.1% 2.4 0.3 0.0%

NIIT Tech.* Computers 1109.3 159.0 62.5 1675.0 316.0 10 72.0 14.1% 14.0% 3.3% -1.9% 16.7% 18.1% 17.1% 23.3 5.3 1.9%

Nirlon Construction 82.2 40.8 90.1 233.0 50.4 10 12.1 6.8% 80.8% 7.3% 7.6% 71.9% 74.3% 71.1% 19.2 4.6 0.0%

Nucleus Soft.* Computers 138.2 38.1 29.0 284.4 182.0 10 30.6 8.8% 56.1% 6.1% 33.7% 22.8% 18.1% 15.8% 9.3 1.6 3.2%

Page 16: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

16

Co_Name Industry

Net Sales

Mar 20

PBT Mar 20

Latest Equity CMP BV FV EPS

Growth in Sales

YoY

Growth in PBT

YoY Growth in Sales QoQ

Growth in PBT QoQ

OPM% w/o OI -Mar 20

OPM% w/o OI - Dec 19

OPM% w/o OI –Mar 19

P/E on TTM EPS P/BV

Div Yield Latest

Oriental Aromat. Chemicals - Organic 169.7 31.1 16.8 282.1 128.5 5 25.8 -15.6% 121.1% -3.3% 33.3% 21.3% 16.0% 10.6% 10.9 2.2 0.9%

PNB Gilts Finance - Investment 276.1 132.1 180.0 36.1 57.9 10 14.0 88.8% 487.5% 27.4% 131.8% 95.8% 90.9% 94.1% 2.6 0.6 8.3%

Polycab India* Cables - Power - Large 2129.4 283.1 148.9 822.2 257.9 10 51.0 -13.6% 36.8% -15.1% -2.4% 13.8% 13.5% 9.9% 16.1 3.2 0.9%

Ponni Sug.Erode Sugar - Integrated 63.4 11.3 8.6 151.0 287.7 10 35.5 -23.9% 55.6% -10.6% 118.9% 20.6% 10.1% 12.0% 4.3 0.5 2.6%

Power Grid Corpn* Power Generation 10148.3 4333.2 5231.6 163.3 123.2 10 21.1 6.4% 300.8% 8.4% 23.9% 83.8% 88.1% 28.1% 7.7 1.3 6.1%

Sahyadri Industr Cement Products 70.4 5.3 9.6 158.4 193.5 10 27.8 -5.9% -14.9% 16.7% 52.7% 15.2% 13.7% 16.9% 5.7 0.8 0.0%

Sandur Manganese Mining / Minerals 119.6 17.1 9.0 561.5 932.8 10 160.9 -11.7% -35.0% -13.1% -48.6% 22.9% 26.3% 15.4% 3.5 0.6 0.4%

SBI Life Insuran Life Insurance 11863.0 587.3 1000.0 875.0 87.4 10 14.2 4.7% 14.9% 1.4% 25.2% 0.8% 3.9% 3.5% 61.5 10.0 0.0%

Security & Intel* Miscellaneous - Large 2209.8 114.7 73.3 365.6 51.7 5 15.4 13.0% 84.3% 1.4% 71.1% 6.2% 6.1% 5.8% 23.8 7.1 0.5%

Shaily Engineer. Plastics - Others 79.6 7.5 8.3 400.0 191.6 10 28.4 2.9% 41.7% -9.8% -13.0% 19.0% 17.2% 14.7% 14.1 2.1 0.0%

Sharda Cropchem* Pesticides / Agro 875.6 138.1 90.2 264.2 145.3 10 18.3 14.7% 10.4% 128.8% 701.3% 18.7% 10.3% 20.2% 14.5 1.8 1.5%

Sumitomo Chemi.* Chemicals 445.8 31.6 499.2 264.4 24.2 10 0.4 NA NA -14.8% 195.1% 9.2% 3.9% NA 58.2 10.9 0.2%

Suyog Telematics Transmisson Line 31.3 8.9 10.2 278.6 125.2 10 16.3 NA NA -0.1% -24.2% 37.1% 46.3% NA 8.6 2.22 0.2%

Symphony* Domestic Appliances 249.0 51.0 14.0 852.7 92.8 2 26.4 6.0% 264.3% -14.1% -30.1% 15.7% 23.4% 3.8% 32.3 9.2 2.7%

Syngene Intl.* Biotechnology 607.3 153.0 400.0 423.6 54.4 10 9.0 13.7% 18.9% 17.0% 43.4% 33.6% 29.6% 30.0% 47.3 7.8 0.0%

T.V. Today Netw.* Entertainment 208.3 44.8 29.8 199.7 146.2 5 23.4 18.4% 13.0% -6.4% -23.5% 22.5% 27.3% 18.7% 8.5 1.4 1.1%

Tata Elxsi Computers - Software 438.9 109.8 62.3 915.5 175.0 10 41.1 8.3% 2.8% 3.6% 7.5% 24.7% 22.2% 24.3% 22.3 5.2 1.8%

Tata Metaliks Steel - Pig Iron 521.6 96.3 28.1 506.3 327.4 10 59.1 -12.2% 69.9% 0.6% 75.1% 23.0% 15.1% 13.6% 8.6 1.5 0.5%

Timken India Bearings - Large 405.5 82.4 75.2 1024.8 209.6 10 32.7 -9.5% -3.8% 8.6% 19.4% 23.1% 22.5% 22.6% 31.3 4.9 4.9%

Universal Cables* Cables - Power - Large 371.8 41.5 34.7 119.9 128.2 10 26.0 -9.4% -21.8% -6.0% 26.9% 10.8% 10.5% 12.9% 4.6 0.9 1.7%

Vaibhav Global* Diamond Cutting 498.1 48.4 32.3 1332.3 166.8 10 58.9 7.9% 23.3% -11.6% -40.8% 11.3% 15.7% 9.0% 22.6 8.0 2.5%

Vidhi Specialty Dyes And Pigments 65.1 13.6 5.0 70.6 25.8 1 6.8 5.2% 20.8% 20.6% 31.6% 23.1% 21.5% 20.0% 10.3 2.7 1.4%

Voltas* Diversified - Mega 2078.4 216.7 33.1 576.6 119.6 1 16.6 1.3% 30.9% 39.8% 81.6% 8.2% 5.3% 6.1% 34.6 4.8 0.7%

VST Industries Cigarettes 291.3 94.1 15.4 3404.6 509.8 10 196.9 7.0% 16.5% -15.1% -13.8% 32.5% 31.6% 29.8% 17.3 6.7 3.0%

Whirlpool India* Domestic Appliances 1353.6 123.9 126.9 2251.6 200.8 10 38.6 -0.1% -23.8% 6.5% 23.9% 10.1% 7.1% 12.6% 58.3 11.2 0.2%

WPIL* Pumps 283.1 43.3 9.8 399.6 395.2 10 57.5 3.7% 57.4% 40.8% 165.9% 19.2% 11.4% 12.0% 6.9 1.0 1.9% 1) While compiling the above, we have excluded companies whose average of last 4 quarter sales is less than Rs.20 crore 2) * - Consolidated numbers; Book value is standalone even for companies with consolidated figures, CMP is as of 17 July 2020.

Page 17: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit ... Results... · Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet

Q4FY20 Results Review

17

Disclaimer:

This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable.

Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information

purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.

This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction,

availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

If this report is inadvertently sent or has reached any person in such country, especially, United States of America, the same should be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part, directly or

indirectly, for any purposes or in any manner.

Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by

foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.

It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.

HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or

other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related

information and opinions.

HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds,

changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.

HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of

the companies / organizations described in this report.

HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or

merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.

HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of

publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information

presented in this report.

Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection

with the Research Report.

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building, B, Alpha, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai -400 042. Tel -022 30753400. Compliance Officer: Ms. Binkle R Oza. Ph: 022-3045 3600, Email: [email protected].

SEBI Registration No.: INZ000186937 (NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX) |NSE Trading Member Code: 11094 | BSE Clearing Number: 393 | MSEI Trading Member Code: 30000 | MCX Member Code: 56015 | IN-DP-372-2018 (CDSL, NSDL) | CDSL DP ID: 12086700 | NSDL DP ID: IN304279 | AMFI Reg No.

ARN -13549 | PFRDA Reg. No - POP 11092018 | IRDA Corporate Agent Licence No.CA0062 | Research Analyst Reg. No. INH000002475 | Investment Adviser: INA000011538 | CIN-U67120MH2000PLC15219