Mai

ne P

ublic

Utili

ties

Com

miss

ion

Rev

iew

of N

atur

al G

as C

apac

ity O

ptio

ns

Febr

uary

26,

201

4

Suss

ex E

cono

mic

Adv

isor

s, L

LC (“

Suss

ex”)

has

relie

d up

on c

erta

in p

ublic

sou

rces

of i

nfor

mat

ion

cons

iste

nt w

ith s

tand

ard

cons

ultin

g pr

actic

es. S

usse

x m

akes

no

war

rant

ies

or g

uara

ntee

s re

gard

ing

the

accu

racy

of a

ny e

stim

ates

, pro

ject

ions

or a

naly

ses

cont

aine

d he

rein

. Tho

se re

view

ing

the

info

rmat

ion

cont

aine

d he

rein

wai

ve a

ny c

laim

aga

inst

Sus

sex,

its

partn

ers

and

empl

oyee

s.

Sus

sex

shal

l not

be

liabl

e to

any

par

ty re

view

ing

this

info

rmat

ion.

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 1 of 65

000336

Con

tent

s

1.In

trod

uctio

n

Legi

slat

ive

Bac

kgro

und

P

roje

ct O

bjec

tive

and

Rep

ort O

rgan

izat

ion

2.E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y

3.N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w

4.N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

5.C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s

6.S

umm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

1

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 2 of 65

000337

1. In

trodu

ctio

n: L

egis

lativ

e B

ackg

roun

d

B

ased

on

the

rece

ntly

ena

cted

H.P

. 112

8 –

L.D

. 155

9 (i.

e., A

n A

ct to

Red

uce

Ene

rgy

Cos

ts, I

ncre

ase

Ene

rgy

Effi

cien

cy, P

rom

ote

Ele

ctric

Sys

tem

Rel

iabi

lity

and

Pro

tect

th

e E

nviro

nmen

t), th

e M

aine

Pub

lic U

tiliti

es C

omm

issi

on (“

Mai

ne P

UC

”) h

as th

e ab

ility

to e

xecu

te c

ontra

cts

for n

atur

al g

as p

ipel

ine

capa

city

:3.

Par

ties

to a

n en

ergy

cos

t red

uctio

n co

ntra

ct. T

he c

omm

issi

on m

ay e

xecu

te, o

r dire

ct to

be

exec

uted

, an

ener

gy c

ost r

educ

tion

cont

ract

that

con

tain

s th

e fo

llow

ing

prov

isio

ns.

A. T

he c

omm

issi

on m

ay d

irect

one

or m

ore

trans

mis

sion

and

dis

tribu

tion

utili

ties,

gas

util

ities

or

natu

ral g

as p

ipel

ine

utili

ties

to b

e a

coun

terp

arty

to a

n en

ergy

cos

t red

uctio

n co

ntra

ct. I

n de

term

inin

g w

heth

er a

nd to

wha

t ext

ent t

o di

rect

a u

tility

to b

e a

coun

terp

arty

to a

con

tract

un

der t

his

subs

ectio

n, th

e co

mm

issi

on s

hall

cons

ider

the

antic

ipat

ed re

duct

ion

in th

e pr

ice

of

gas

or e

lect

ricity

, as

appl

icab

le, a

ccru

ing

to th

e cu

stom

ers

of th

e ut

ility

as

a re

sult

of th

e co

ntra

ct a

s de

term

ined

by

the

com

mis

sion

in a

n ad

judi

cato

ry p

roce

edin

g.A

ny e

cono

mic

loss

, inc

ludi

ng b

ut n

ot li

mite

d to

any

effe

cts

on th

e co

st o

f cap

ital r

esul

ting

from

an

ene

rgy

cost

redu

ctio

n co

ntra

ct fo

r a tr

ansm

issi

on a

nd d

istri

butio

n ut

ility

, a g

as u

tility

or a

na

tura

l gas

pip

elin

e ut

ility

, is

deem

ed to

be

prud

ent a

nd th

e co

mm

issi

on s

hall

allo

w fu

ll re

cove

ry th

roug

h th

e ut

ility

's ra

tes.

B. I

f the

com

mis

sion

con

clud

es th

at a

n en

ergy

cos

t red

uctio

n co

ntra

ct c

an b

e ac

hiev

ed w

ith th

e pa

rtici

patio

n of

oth

er e

ntiti

es, t

he c

omm

issi

on m

ay c

ontra

ct jo

intly

with

oth

er e

ntiti

es, i

nclu

ding

ot

her s

tate

age

ncie

s an

d in

stru

men

talit

ies,

gov

ernm

ents

in o

ther

sta

tes

and

natio

ns, u

tiliti

es

and

gene

rato

rs.

C. T

he c

omm

issi

on m

ay e

xecu

te a

n en

ergy

cos

t red

uctio

n co

ntra

ct a

s a

prin

cipa

l and

co

unte

rpar

ty.

2

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 3 of 65

000338

1. In

trodu

ctio

n: P

roje

ct O

bjec

tive

and

Rep

ort O

rgan

izat

ion

S

usse

x E

cono

mic

Adv

isor

s, L

LC (“

Sus

sex”

) was

reta

ined

by

the

Mai

ne P

UC

to

revi

ew th

e va

rious

nat

ural

gas

pip

elin

es s

ervi

ng N

ew E

ngla

nd, t

heir

rela

ted

open

sea

sons

for c

apac

ity, a

nd th

e po

tent

ial c

osts

and

ben

efits

of i

ncre

men

tal

natu

ral g

as d

eliv

erab

ility

into

New

Eng

land

. The

rem

aind

er o

f thi

s re

port

is

orga

nize

d as

follo

ws:

S

ectio

n 2

–Ex

ecut

ive

Sum

mar

y: P

rovi

des

an e

xecu

tive

sum

mar

y of

the

key

obse

rvat

ions

and

find

ings

S

ectio

n 3

–N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w: P

rovi

des

an o

verv

iew

of t

he c

urre

nt n

atur

al

gas

mar

kets

in N

ew E

ngla

nd, w

ith a

par

ticul

ar fo

cus

on M

aine

; dis

cuss

es th

e re

gion

al

natu

ral g

as d

eman

d an

d su

pply

driv

ers;

and

revi

ews

natu

ral g

as p

rices

and

bas

is v

alue

s

Sec

tion

4 –

Nat

ural

Gas

Pip

elin

e C

apac

ity O

ptio

ns: I

dent

ifies

and

revi

ews

the

natu

ral

gas

pipe

line

capa

city

opt

ions

into

New

Eng

land

S

ectio

n 5

–C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: P

rovi

des

an e

stim

ate

of th

e co

sts

and

bene

fits

asso

ciat

ed w

ith in

crem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty in

to th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

S

ectio

n 6

–Su

mm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

: Sum

mar

izes

the

obse

rvat

ions

and

con

clus

ions

ba

sed

on th

e an

alys

es a

nd re

sear

ch p

rese

nted

her

ein

3

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 4 of 65

000339

Con

tent

s

1.In

trodu

ctio

n

2.Ex

ecut

ive

Sum

mar

y

3.N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w

4.N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

5.C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s

6.S

umm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

4

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 5 of 65

000340

2. E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y: N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s

Th

ere

is s

igni

fican

t act

ivity

affe

ctin

g na

tura

l gas

dem

and

in th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd,

New

Yor

k C

ity a

nd A

tlant

ic C

anad

a re

gion

M

aine

: loc

al d

istri

butio

n co

mpa

nies

(“LD

Cs”

) hav

e si

gnifi

cant

nat

ural

gas

exp

ansi

on

plan

s

Con

nect

icut

Com

preh

ensi

ve E

nerg

y S

trate

gy (“

CT

CE

S”)

: pot

entia

l for

300

,000

new

na

tura

l gas

cus

tom

ers

over

the

next

sev

en to

ten

year

s

Mas

sach

uset

ts: D

epar

tmen

t of E

nerg

y R

esou

rces

(“D

OE

R”)

has

spo

nsor

ed a

stu

dy

rega

rdin

g po

tent

ial p

olic

y ch

ange

s as

soci

ated

with

LD

C e

xpan

sion

N

ew Y

ork

City

: no

perm

its fo

r No.

4 a

nd 6

fuel

oil

unle

ss e

mis

sion

s ar

e eq

uiva

lent

to N

o.

2 oi

l, w

hich

has

resu

lted

in s

igni

fican

t con

vers

ion

to n

atur

al g

as; C

on E

diso

n es

timat

ed

peak

day

gro

wth

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y 4%

A

tlant

ic C

anad

a: in

crea

sing

dem

and

for n

atur

al g

as fr

om th

e LD

C a

nd p

ower

gen

erat

ion

segm

ents

IS

O N

ew E

ngla

nd (“

ISO

-NE

”): i

ncre

asin

g re

lianc

e on

nat

ural

gas

, as

over

hal

f of t

he

gene

ratio

n in

the

inte

rcon

nect

ion

queu

e is

nat

ural

gas

-fire

d; n

early

10%

of I

SO

-NE

’s to

tal

gene

ratin

g ca

paci

ty is

sch

edul

ed to

be

retir

ed o

ver t

he n

ext t

hree

yea

rs

5

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 6 of 65

000341

2. E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y: N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s

E

aste

rn C

anad

a:

Dec

reas

ing

prod

uctio

n fro

m th

e S

able

Offs

hore

Ene

rgy

Pro

ject

(“S

OE

P”)

D

eep

Pan

uke

is o

n-lin

e an

d at

full

volu

me

(i.e.

, app

roxi

mat

ely

300

MM

cf/d

ay);

how

ever

, th

ere

are

unce

rtain

ties

rega

rdin

g su

stai

nabi

lity

and

dura

tion

of p

rodu

ctio

n

Li

quef

ied

Nat

ural

Gas

(“LN

G”):

M

assa

chus

etts

off-

shor

e fa

cilit

ies

have

not

rece

ived

any

car

goes

in th

e pa

st 3

yea

rs

Can

apor

t LN

G a

nd G

DF

SU

EZ

volu

mes

are

app

roxi

mat

ely

50%

of p

revi

ous

leve

ls

Alte

rnat

ive

mar

ket p

rices

for L

NG

are

cur

rent

ly m

ore

attra

ctiv

e th

an N

ew E

ngla

nd m

arke

t in

dex

pric

es

D

awn

Gas

Sup

ply

Hub

(“D

awn

Hub

”) / W

este

rn C

anad

a:

Tran

sCan

ada

Pip

elin

es L

imite

d (“

TCP

L”) M

ainl

ine,

the

prim

ary

pipe

line

deliv

erin

g C

anad

ian

natu

ral g

as s

uppl

ies

to N

ew E

ngla

nd, h

as re

ache

d a

toll

and

serv

ice

settl

emen

t with

the

maj

or e

aste

rn C

anad

ian

LDC

s. T

he s

ettle

men

t was

sub

mitt

ed fo

r re

view

by

the

Nat

iona

l Ene

rgy

Boa

rd (“

NE

B”)

in D

ecem

ber 2

013,

and

as

a re

sult,

the

tolls

for s

ervi

ce o

n th

e TC

PL

Mai

nlin

e w

ill b

e su

bjec

t to

the

resu

lts a

nd ti

min

g of

that

pr

ocee

ding

A

lgon

quin

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on (“

AG

T”) /

Ten

ness

ee G

as P

ipel

ine

(“TG

P”):

M

arce

llus

Sha

le g

as p

rodu

ctio

n co

ntin

ues

to g

row,

whi

ch h

as in

crea

sed

the

utili

zatio

n of

th

e A

GT

and

TGP

pipe

lines

and

has

resu

lted

in in

crea

sed

inte

rrup

tible

or n

on-fi

rm

serv

ice

rest

rictio

ns6

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 7 of 65

000342

2. E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y: R

esul

tant

Nat

ural

Gas

Pric

e S

igna

ls

A

lthou

gh n

atur

al g

as p

rices

in N

ew E

ngla

nd, a

s re

pres

ente

d by

the

Alg

onqu

in

City

gate

s (“A

LGC

G”)

pric

e in

dex,

hav

e hi

stor

ical

ly b

een

at a

pre

miu

m to

the

Gul

f of M

exic

o pr

ices

, as

repr

esen

ted

by th

e H

enry

Hub

pric

e in

dex,

the

leve

l of

that

pre

miu

m h

as in

crea

sed

subs

tant

ially

ove

r the

pas

t few

yea

rs

A

s illu

stra

ted

by th

e ta

ble,

the

prem

ium

bet

wee

n N

ew E

ngla

nd a

nd H

enry

Hub

na

tura

l gas

pric

es e

xcee

ded

$10.

00/M

MB

tu th

ree

times

dur

ing

the

2008

/200

9 th

roug

h 20

11/2

012

time

perio

d; h

owev

er, i

n 20

12/2

013,

ther

e w

ere

25

obse

rvat

ions

whe

re th

e ba

sis

was

equ

al to

or g

reat

er th

an $

10.0

0/M

MB

tu

So

far i

n 20

13/2

014,

ther

e ha

ve b

een

28 o

bser

vatio

ns o

f a b

asis

gre

ater

than

$1

0.00

/MM

Btu

* 20

13/2

014

data

thro

ugh

Janu

ary

29, 2

014

Sou

rce:

His

toric

al p

rices

thr

ough

Jan

uary

29,

201

4 fro

m S

NL

Fina

ncia

l

2008

/200

920

09/2

010

2010

/201

120

11/2

012

2012

/201

320

13/2

014*

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$1

0.00

10

20

2528

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$5

.00

131

243

5338

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$2

.00

4027

6121

124

56G

reat

er th

an o

r equ

al to

$1.0

078

4311

385

164

64G

reat

er th

an o

r equ

al to

$0.5

015

411

819

121

820

779

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$0

.25

339

360

323

295

257

85G

reat

er th

an$0

.00

362

365

365

365

334

86Le

ss th

an o

r equ

al to

$0.0

03

00

031

4

ALG

CG-H

enry

Hub

Ba

sis

Diffe

rent

ial (

$/M

MBt

u)Nu

mbe

r of D

ays

7

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 8 of 65

000343

2. E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y: N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

A

s ill

ustra

ted

belo

w, th

ere

are

seve

ral n

atur

al g

as in

frast

ruct

ure

proj

ects

pro

pose

d fo

r the

N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

, inc

ludi

ng th

e S

pect

ra E

nerg

y A

lgon

quin

Incr

emen

tal M

arke

t (“A

IM”)

Pro

ject

, the

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy/

Mar

itim

es &

Nor

thea

st P

ipel

ine

(“M

&N

P”)

Atla

ntic

Brid

ge

Pro

ject

, the

Kin

der M

orga

n/TG

P N

orth

east

Exp

ansi

on, a

nd th

e P

ortla

nd N

atur

al G

as

Tran

smis

sion

Sys

tem

(“P

NG

TS”)

Con

tinen

t to

Coa

st (“

C2C

”) P

roje

ct

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

–AI

M

Pro

ject

(342

MM

cf/d

ay)

TGP

–N

orth

east

Ex

pans

ion

(600

–2,

200

MM

cf/d

ay)

PN

GTS

–C

2C P

roje

ct(1

20 –

150

MM

cf/d

ay)

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

/ M&

NP

–A

tlant

ic B

ridge

Pro

ject

(1

00 –

600

MM

cf/d

ay)

TCP

L M

ainl

ine

Ope

n S

easo

n

Sou

rce:

SN

L Fi

nanc

ial

8

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 9 of 65

000344

2. E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y: C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s –

New

Eng

land

B

ased

on

the

rela

tions

hip

betw

een

natu

ral g

as p

rices

and

ele

ctric

ity lo

catio

nal

mar

gina

l pric

es (“

LMP

s”) i

n IS

O-N

E, S

usse

x ca

lcul

ated

the

pote

ntia

l red

uctio

n in

LM

Ps

as a

resu

lt of

a re

duct

ion

in w

hole

sale

nat

ural

gas

pric

es to

est

imat

e th

e po

tent

ial e

nerg

y co

st s

avin

gs to

ele

ctric

ity c

usto

mer

s fo

r the

201

2/20

13

split

-yea

r[1]

A

s illu

stra

ted

by th

e ta

bles

bel

ow, a

40%

redu

ctio

n in

the

New

Eng

land

nat

ural

ga

s ba

sis

(i.e.

, a lo

wer

ing

of th

e pr

emiu

m b

etw

een

New

Eng

land

and

Gul

f of

Mex

ico

natu

ral g

as p

rice

indi

ces)

wou

ld o

ffset

1,0

00,0

00 D

th/d

ay o

f inc

rem

enta

l pi

pelin

e ca

paci

ty, a

ssum

ing

a da

ily p

ipel

ine

char

ge a

s hi

gh a

s $2

.00/

Dth

Not

e: [1

] Spl

it-ye

ar is

def

ined

as

the

twel

ve-m

onth

per

iod

from

Nov

embe

r to

Oct

ober

Estim

ated

Ben

efits

Bas

is R

educ

tion

of:

Annu

al E

nerg

y C

ost S

avin

gs fo

r M

aine

Cus

tom

ers

($)

Annu

al E

nerg

y C

ost S

avin

gs fo

r IS

O-N

E C

usto

mer

s ($

)25

%$4

0,04

7,60

5$4

67,6

68,0

31

30%

$48,

057,

127

$561

,201

,637

35%

$56,

066,

648

$654

,735

,243

40%

$64,

076,

169

$748

,268

,849

45%

$72,

085,

690

$841

,802

,455

50%

$80,

095,

211

$935

,336

,062

55%

$88,

104,

732

$1,0

28,8

69,6

68

60%

$96,

114,

253

$1,1

22,4

03,2

74

65%

$104

,123

,774

$1,2

15,9

36,8

80

70%

$112

,133

,295

$1,3

09,4

70,4

86

75%

$120

,142

,816

$1,4

03,0

04,0

92

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(1,0

00,0

00 D

th)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

01,

000,

000

$365

,000

,000

$1.1

01,

000,

000

$401

,500

,000

$1.2

01,

000,

000

$438

,000

,000

$1.3

01,

000,

000

$474

,500

,000

$1.4

01,

000,

000

$511

,000

,000

$1.5

01,

000,

000

$547

,500

,000

$1.6

01,

000,

000

$584

,000

,000

$1.7

01,

000,

000

$620

,500

,000

$1.8

01,

000,

000

$657

,000

,000

$1.9

01,

000,

000

$693

,500

,000

$2.0

01,

000,

000

$730

,000

,000

9

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 10 of 65

000345

2. E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y: C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s –

Mai

ne

A

cost

/ be

nefit

ana

lysi

s w

as a

lso

cond

ucte

d fo

r Mai

ne u

sing

an

appr

oach

si

mila

r to

the

ISO

-NE

ana

lysi

s di

scus

sed

earli

er a

nd u

nder

two

volu

me

scen

ario

s (i.

e., 5

0,00

0 D

th a

nd 2

00,0

00 D

th)

A

s in

dica

ted

in th

e ta

bles

bel

ow, t

he e

stim

ated

ann

ual b

enef

its to

Mai

ne u

nder

a

scen

ario

in w

hich

the

natu

ral g

as b

asis

is re

duce

d by

40%

is a

ppro

xim

atel

y $6

4 m

illion

, whi

ch w

ould

offs

et a

50,

000

Dth

/day

con

tract

ass

umin

g a

daily

rate

as

high

as

$2.0

0/D

th

How

ever

, the

est

imat

ed a

nnua

l ben

efits

to M

aine

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y $6

4 m

illion

w

ould

not

offs

et a

200

,000

Dth

/day

con

tract

at a

dai

ly ra

te o

f a $

1.00

/Dth

Estim

ated

Ben

efits

Bas

is

Red

uctio

n of

:

Annu

al E

nerg

y C

ost S

avin

gs fo

r M

aine

Cus

tom

ers

($)

25%

$40,

047,

605

30%

$48,

057,

127

35%

$56,

066,

648

40%

$64,

076,

169

45%

$72,

085,

690

50%

$80,

095,

211

55%

$88,

104,

732

60%

$96,

114,

253

65%

$104

,123

,774

70%

$112

,133

,295

75%

$120

,142

,816

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(200

,000

Dth

)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

020

0,00

0$7

3,00

0,00

0$1

.10

200,

000

$80,

300,

000

$1.2

020

0,00

0$8

7,60

0,00

0

$1.3

020

0,00

0$9

4,90

0,00

0

$1.4

020

0,00

0$1

02,2

00,0

00

$1.5

020

0,00

0$1

09,5

00,0

00

$1.6

020

0,00

0$1

16,8

00,0

00

$1.7

020

0,00

0$1

24,1

00,0

00

$1.8

020

0,00

0$1

31,4

00,0

00

$1.9

020

0,00

0$1

38,7

00,0

00

$2.0

020

0,00

0$1

46,0

00,0

00

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(50,

000

Dth

)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

050

,000

$18,

250,

000

$1.1

050

,000

$20,

075,

000

$1.2

050

,000

$21,

900,

000

$1.3

050

,000

$23,

725,

000

$1.4

050

,000

$25,

550,

000

$1.5

050

,000

$27,

375,

000

$1.6

050

,000

$29,

200,

000

$1.7

050

,000

$31,

025,

000

$1.8

050

,000

$32,

850,

000

$1.9

050

,000

$34,

675,

000

$2.0

050

,000

$36,

500,

000

10

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 11 of 65

000346

Con

tent

s

1.In

trodu

ctio

n

2.E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y

3.N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w

Mar

ket C

onte

xt

Reg

iona

l Nat

ural

Gas

Dem

and

Driv

ers

N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s

Nat

ural

Gas

Pric

e an

d B

asis

Ana

lysi

s

4.N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

5.C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s

6.S

umm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

11

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 12 of 65

000347

3. M

arke

t Con

text

: Nat

ural

Gas

Infra

stru

ctur

e –

New

Eng

land

Fi

ve in

ters

tate

nat

ural

gas

pip

elin

es s

erve

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on:

Sou

rces

: Com

pany

web

site

s; a

nd S

NL

Fina

ncia

l

Pipe

line

Ow

ner(

s)Pr

imar

y Su

pply

Sour

ces

Alg

onqu

in G

as T

rans

mis

sion

,LLC

(“

Alg

onqu

in” o

r “A

GT”

)S

pect

raEn

ergy

Par

tner

s, L

PG

ulfo

f Mex

ico,

App

alac

hian

B

asin

, Roc

kies

Bas

in, L

NG

Iroqu

ois

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on,L

.P.

(“Iro

quoi

s”)

Iroqu

ois

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on, L

.P.

Wes

tern

Can

adia

n S

edim

enta

ry

Bas

in (“

WC

SB

”)/ D

awn

Hub

Mar

itim

es&

Nor

thea

st P

ipel

ine

(“M

&N

P”)

(U.S

.)S

pect

ra E

nerg

y P

artn

ers,

LP

(77.

53%

); E

mer

a, In

c. (1

2.92

%);

Exx

onM

obil

Cor

p. (9

.55%

)

SO

EP

/ Dee

p P

anuk

e / L

NG

Por

tland

Nat

ural

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on

Sys

tem

(“P

NG

TS”)

Tran

sCan

ada

Pip

elin

es L

imite

d (6

1.71

%);

Gaz

Met

ro(3

8.29

%)

WC

SB

/ D

awn

Hub

Tenn

esse

eG

as P

ipel

ine

Com

pany

, L.

L.C

. (“T

enne

ssee

” or “

TGP

”)K

inde

r Mor

gan

Ene

rgy

Par

tner

s,

L.P.

Gul

f ofM

exic

o, A

ppal

achi

anB

asin

, Roc

kies

Bas

in, L

NG

12

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 13 of 65

000348

3. M

arke

t Con

text

: Nat

ural

Gas

Infra

stru

ctur

e –

New

Eng

land

(con

t.)

LN

G im

port

term

inal

s:

LNG

impo

rts p

rovi

ded

appr

oxim

atel

y 17

% o

f New

Eng

land

’s to

tal n

atur

al g

as s

uppl

y in

th

e w

inte

r of 2

012/

2013

, and

his

toric

ally

up

to 6

0% o

f New

Eng

land

’s to

tal n

atur

al g

as

supp

ly o

n a

peak

win

ter d

ay

In

add

ition

to L

NG

impo

rtatio

n fa

cilit

ies,

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on a

lso

relie

s on

LD

C L

NG

pea

k-sh

avin

g fa

cilit

ies

to m

eet r

egio

nal p

eak

day

requ

irem

ents

:

45 L

DC

LN

G ta

nks

in fi

ve N

ew E

ngla

nd s

tate

s (i.

e., C

T, M

E, M

A, N

H, a

nd R

I)

Tota

l sto

rage

cap

acity

of t

he N

ew E

ngla

nd L

NG

faci

litie

s is

app

roxi

mat

ely

16.5

Bcf

with

va

poriz

atio

n ca

paci

ty o

f app

roxi

mat

ely

1.4

Bcf

/day

Sou

rces

: Com

pany

web

site

s; S

NL

Fina

ncia

l; Fe

dera

l Ene

rgy

Reg

ulat

ory

Com

mis

sion

, Win

ter 2

012-

13 E

nerg

y M

arke

t Ass

essm

ent,

Nov

embe

r 15,

201

2;

Nor

thea

st G

as A

ssoc

iatio

n, S

tatis

tical

Gui

de to

the

Nor

thea

st U

.S. N

atur

al G

as In

dust

ry 2

013,

Dec

embe

r 201

3; a

nd b

ased

on

a re

view

of e

ach

LDC

’s m

ost

rece

nt fo

reca

st a

nd s

uppl

y pl

an fi

ling

with

thei

r res

pect

ive

stat

e re

gula

tory

com

mis

sion

s

LNG

Impo

rt

Term

inal

Ow

ner(

s)Lo

catio

n

Max

. Sen

dout

Cap

acity

(M

Mcf

/day

)

Stor

age

Cap

acity

(B

cf)

In-

Serv

ice

Dat

e

Can

apor

t LN

GR

epso

l Ene

rgy

Nor

thA

mer

ica

Cor

p. (7

5%);

Irvin

g O

il (2

5%)

St.

John

.New

B

runs

wic

k1,

200

10.0

2009

Eve

rett

LNG

Dis

triga

s of

Mas

sach

uset

tsLL

C, a

su

bsid

iary

of G

DF

SU

EZ

Gas

NA

Eve

rett,

MA

715;

10

0 (b

y tru

ck)

3.4

1971

Nep

tune

LN

GG

DF

SU

EZ

Gas

NA

Offs

hore

–G

louc

este

r, M

A75

0n/

a20

10

Nor

thea

stG

atew

ayE

xcel

erat

e E

nerg

yO

ffsho

re –

Cap

e A

nn, M

A80

0n/

a20

08

13

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 14 of 65

000349

3. M

arke

t Con

text

: Nat

ural

Gas

Infra

stru

ctur

e –

New

Eng

land

(con

t.)

Sou

rce:

SN

L Fi

nanc

ial

14

Th

ere

are

five

maj

or in

ters

tate

pip

elin

es a

nd fo

ur L

NG

impo

rt te

rmin

als

that

de

liver

nat

ural

gas

to N

ew E

ngla

nd

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 15 of 65

000350

3. M

arke

t Con

text

: Nat

ural

Gas

Infra

stru

ctur

e –

Mai

ne

Th

e M

aine

nat

ural

gas

mar

ket i

s pr

imar

ily s

erve

d by

M&

NP

and

PN

GTS

; in

addi

tion,

ther

e ar

e fo

ur L

DC

s th

at p

rovi

de d

istri

butio

n se

rvic

e

15S

ourc

e: S

NL

Fina

ncia

l

Not

es:

[1] T

he m

ap a

bove

sho

ws

the

serv

ice

terr

itorie

s fo

r the

Mai

ne L

DC

s pr

ior t

o th

e na

tura

l gas

pip

elin

e ex

pans

ions

to th

e ci

ty o

f A

ugus

ta, M

aine

by

Mai

ne N

atur

al G

as a

nd S

umm

it N

atur

al G

as in

late

201

3[2

] Mad

ison

Pap

er is

cur

rent

ly s

erve

d by

LN

G, a

nd is

exp

ecte

d to

be

serv

ed b

y S

umm

it N

atur

al G

as in

201

4

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 16 of 65

000351

O

ver t

he p

ast f

ive

split

-yea

rs (i

.e.,

2008

/200

9 to

201

2/20

13):

To

tal a

nnua

l dem

and

for n

atur

al g

as in

crea

sed

by

a co

mpo

und

annu

al g

row

th ra

te (“

CA

GR

”) o

f 2.3

%

from

731

.7 B

cf (i

.e.,

2,00

5 M

Mcf

/day

) to

801.

1 B

cf

(i.e.

, 2,1

95 M

Mcf

/day

)

W

inte

r nat

ural

gas

dem

and

incr

ease

d by

a C

AG

R

of 1

.0%

from

400

.0 B

cf (i

.e.,

2,64

9 M

Mcf

/day

) to

416.

0 B

cf (i

.e.,

2,75

5 M

Mcf

/day

)

S

umm

er n

atur

al g

as d

eman

d in

crea

sed

by a

C

AG

R o

f 3.8

% fr

om 3

31.7

Bcf

(i.e

., 1,

550

MM

cf/d

ay) t

o 38

5.1

Bcf

(i.e

., 1,

800

MM

cf/d

ay)

In

201

2/20

13, t

he p

ower

gen

erat

ion

segm

ent

acco

unte

d fo

r app

roxi

mat

ely

43%

of t

otal

na

tura

l gas

dem

and,

follo

wed

by

the

resi

dent

ial,

com

mer

cial

and

indu

stria

l se

gmen

ts w

ith 2

6%, 1

9% a

nd 1

2%,

resp

ectiv

ely

3. M

arke

t Con

text

: His

toric

al D

eman

d –

New

Eng

land

(exc

ludi

ng

Mai

ne)

Not

e: D

ata

for 2

013

for c

erta

in s

tate

s ba

sed

on S

usse

x es

timat

es (S

ourc

e: U

.S. E

nerg

y In

form

atio

n A

dmin

istra

tion,

Nat

ural

Gas

Con

sum

ptio

n by

End

Use

, re

leas

e da

te J

anua

ry 7

, 201

4)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.

0

120.

0

Nov-2008

Feb-2009

May-2009

Aug-2009

Nov-2009

Feb-2010

May-2010

Aug-2010

Nov-2010

Feb-2011

May-2011

Aug-2011

Nov-2011

Feb-2012

May-2012

Aug-2012

Nov-2012

Feb-2013

May-2013

Aug-2013

Consumption (Bcf)

Res

iden

tial

Com

mer

cial

Indu

stria

lPo

wer

Gen

erat

ion

Res

iden

tial

205.

8 Bc

f26

%

Com

mer

cial

152.

2 Bc

f19

%In

dust

rial

93.6

Bcf

12%

Pow

er

Gen

erat

ion

349.

5 B

cf43

%

Tota

l 201

2/20

13 N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d =

801.

1 B

cf

16

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 17 of 65

000352

O

ver t

he p

ast f

ive

split

-yea

rs (i

.e.,

2008

/200

9 to

201

2/20

13):

To

tal a

nnua

l dem

and

for n

atur

al g

as d

ecre

ased

by

a C

AG

R o

f 3.4

% fr

om 6

9.2

Bcf

(i.e

., 19

0 M

Mcf

/day

) to

60.3

Bcf

(i.e

., 16

5 M

Mcf

/day

)

W

inte

r nat

ural

gas

dem

and

decr

ease

d by

a C

AG

R

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y 2.

0% fr

om 3

0.9

Bcf

(i.e

., 20

5 M

Mcf

/day

) to

28.6

Bcf

(i.e

., 18

9 M

Mcf

/day

)

S

umm

er n

atur

al g

as d

eman

d de

crea

sed

by a

C

AG

R o

f 4.6

% fr

om 3

8.3

Bcf

(i.e

., 17

9 M

Mcf

/day

) to

31.

7 B

cf (

i.e.,

148

MM

cf/d

ay)

W

hile

the

resi

dent

ial,

com

mer

cial

and

indu

stria

l se

gmen

ts a

ll ha

ve e

xper

ienc

ed in

crea

ses

in

cons

umpt

ion,

the

dem

and

for n

atur

al g

as b

y th

e po

wer

gen

erat

ion

segm

ent h

as d

eclin

ed fr

om 3

6.9

Bcf

(i.e

., 10

1 M

Mcf

/day

) to

20.0

Bcf

(i.e

., 55

M

Mcf

/day

), lik

ely

driv

en b

y hi

gher

gas

sup

ply

cost

s

In

201

2/20

13, t

he p

ower

gen

erat

ion

segm

ent

acco

unte

d fo

r app

roxi

mat

ely

33%

of M

aine

’s

tota

l nat

ural

gas

dem

and,

whi

le th

e in

dust

rial

segm

ent a

ccou

nted

for 5

2% o

f the

tota

l de

man

d

3. M

arke

t Con

text

: His

toric

al D

eman

d –

Mai

ne

Res

iden

tial

1.5

Bcf

3%

Com

mer

cial

7.4

Bcf

12%

Indu

stria

l31

.5 B

cf52

%

Pow

er

Gen

erat

ion

20.0

Bcf

33%

Tota

l 201

2/20

13 N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d =

60.3

Bcf

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Nov-2008

Feb-2009

May-2009

Aug-2009

Nov-2009

Feb-2010

May-2010

Aug-2010

Nov-2010

Feb-2011

May-2011

Aug-2011

Nov-2011

Feb-2012

May-2012

Aug-2012

Nov-2012

Feb-2013

May-2013

Aug-2013

Consumption (Bcf)

Res

iden

tial

Com

mer

cial

Indu

stria

lPo

wer

Gen

erat

ion

Not

e: D

ata

for J

anua

ry-A

pril

2013

for t

he re

side

ntia

l and

com

mer

cial

seg

men

ts b

ased

on

Sus

sex

estim

ates

(Sou

rce:

U.S

. Ene

rgy

Info

rmat

ion

Adm

inis

tratio

n,

Nat

ural

Gas

Con

sum

ptio

n by

End

Use

, rel

ease

dat

e Ja

nuar

y 7,

201

4)17

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 18 of 65

000353

3. N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s: M

aine

Th

e fo

ur M

aine

LD

Cs

have

sig

nific

ant n

atur

al g

as in

frast

ruct

ure

deve

lopm

ent

and

expa

nsio

n pl

ans:

U

nitil

, whi

ch s

erve

s na

tura

l gas

cus

tom

ers

in M

aine

, New

Ham

pshi

re a

nd

Mas

sach

uset

ts, h

as p

lans

to in

crea

se it

s nu

mbe

r of c

usto

mer

s fro

m 7

4,00

0 to

92,

000

(i.e.

, an

appr

oxim

atel

y 25

% in

crea

se in

cus

tom

er b

ase)

by

2016

thro

ugh

addi

tions

and

co

nver

sion

s

Sum

mit

Nat

ural

Gas

(“S

umm

it”) i

s cu

rren

tly u

nder

taki

ng m

ultip

le p

roje

cts

to p

rovi

de

natu

ral g

as s

ervi

ce to

new

are

as w

ithin

Mai

ne•

The

$350

milli

on K

enne

bec

Valle

y P

roje

ct, w

hich

con

sist

s of

an

88-m

ile tr

ansm

issi

on p

ipel

ine

to

supp

ly n

atur

al g

as to

two

pape

r mills

, alo

ng w

ith 1

,600

mile

s of

dis

tribu

tion

pipe

line

to e

xpan

d S

umm

it’s

serv

ice

terr

itory

into

sev

ente

en c

omm

uniti

es in

the

Ken

nebe

c Va

lley

regi

on

•S

umm

it al

so re

ceiv

ed a

ppro

val f

or a

$42

milli

on p

roje

ct, w

hich

con

sist

s of

32

mile

s of

tran

smis

sion

lin

es a

nd 2

13 m

iles

of d

istri

butio

n lin

es, t

o pr

ovid

e na

tura

l gas

dis

tribu

tion

serv

ice

to th

e to

wns

of

Cum

berla

nd, F

alm

outh

and

Yar

mou

th

Th

e ne

w $

23 m

illio

n na

tura

l gas

pip

elin

e bu

ilt b

y M

aine

Nat

ural

Gas

from

an

inte

rcon

nect

w

ith M

&N

P in

Win

dsor

, Mai

ne to

Aug

usta

, Mai

ne c

omm

ence

d se

rvic

e in

Nov

embe

r 201

3

In la

te O

ctob

er 2

013,

Ban

gor N

atur

al G

as a

nnou

nced

pla

ns to

con

stru

ct a

five

-pha

se,

$7.5

mill

ion

natu

ral g

as p

ipel

ine

to L

inco

ln, M

aine

Sou

rces

: Uni

til, P

rese

ntat

ion

for S

econ

d Q

uarte

r 201

3 E

arni

ngs

Con

fere

nce

Cal

l, Ju

ly 2

4, 2

013;

Sum

mit

Nat

ural

Gas

, “G

as is

Tur

ned

On,

Sum

mit

Now

S

ervi

ng C

usto

mer

s”, J

anua

ry 6

, 201

4; B

ango

r Dai

ly N

ews,

“Fal

mou

th re

leas

es m

ap d

etai

ling

natu

ral g

as li

ne e

xpan

sion

”, D

ecem

ber 2

3, 2

013;

SN

L Fi

nanc

ial,

“Mai

ne N

atur

al G

as c

ompl

etes

1st

gas

pip

elin

e to

Aug

usta

, Mai

ne”,

Oct

ober

28,

201

3; a

nd S

NL

Fina

ncia

l, “R

epor

t: B

ango

r Nat

ural

pro

pose

s $7

.5M

pip

elin

e in

Mai

ne”,

Oct

ober

23,

201

318

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 19 of 65

000354

3. N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s: C

onne

ctic

ut

O

n Fe

brua

ry 1

9, 2

013,

the

Con

nect

icut

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

and

Env

ironm

enta

l Pro

tect

ion

issu

ed it

s C

ompr

ehen

sive

Ene

rgy

Stra

tegy

for

Con

nect

icut

(“C

T C

ES

”)

One

of t

he m

ain

obje

ctiv

es a

ddre

ssed

by

the

CT

CE

S w

as to

incr

ease

the

cons

umpt

ion

of n

atur

al g

as th

roug

h na

tura

l gas

con

vers

ions

. Th

e C

T C

ES

set

a

goal

of i

ncre

asin

g th

e av

aila

bilit

y of

nat

ural

gas

to a

ppro

xim

atel

y 30

0,00

0 ad

ditio

nal c

usto

mer

s ov

er th

e ne

xt s

even

yea

rs, b

y pr

omot

ing:

“[A

]n e

nhan

ced

regu

lato

ry s

truct

ure

desi

gned

to p

rovi

de fu

el fl

exib

ility

and

div

ersi

ty.

It of

fers

a p

ath

tow

ard

grea

ter c

onsu

mer

fuel

cho

ice

and

long

ove

rdue

inve

stm

ents

in

infra

stru

ctur

e th

at w

ill m

ake

it ea

sier

for m

any

Con

nect

icut

resi

dent

s an

d bu

sine

sses

to

take

adv

anta

ge o

f the

opp

ortu

nity

to h

eat w

ith lo

wer

cos

t and

cle

aner

bur

ning

nat

ural

gas

–

if th

ey w

ould

like

to d

o so

.”

To

mee

t the

gro

win

g na

tura

l gas

dem

and,

the

Con

nect

icut

LD

Cs

have

su

ppor

ted

natu

ral g

as c

apac

ity p

roje

cts

on b

oth

TGP

and

AG

T:

TGP

Con

nect

icut

Exp

ansi

on –

72,1

00 D

th/d

ay w

ith a

n in

-ser

vice

dat

e of

Nov

embe

r 201

6

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

AIM

Pro

ject

–34

2,00

0 D

th/d

ay w

ith a

n in

-ser

vice

dat

e of

Nov

embe

r 20

16

Sou

rces

: Con

nect

icut

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

and

Env

ironm

enta

l Pro

tect

ion,

201

3 C

ompr

ehen

sive

Ene

rgy

Stra

tegy

for C

onne

ctic

ut, F

ebru

ary

19, 2

013;

and

C

onne

ctic

ut P

ublic

Util

ities

Reg

ulat

ory

Aut

horit

y, D

ocke

t No.

13-

06-0

2, P

UR

A In

vest

igat

ion

of C

onne

ctic

ut's

Loc

al D

istri

butio

n C

ompa

nies

' Pro

pose

d E

xpan

sion

Pla

ns to

Com

ply

with

Con

nect

icut

's C

ompr

ehen

sive

Ene

rgy

Stra

tegy

, Dec

isio

n, N

ovem

ber 2

2, 2

013

19

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 20 of 65

000355

3. N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s: M

assa

chus

etts

Th

e M

assa

chus

etts

DO

ER

has

spo

nsor

ed a

stu

dy to

ana

lyze

the

net e

cono

mic

an

d en

viro

nmen

tal b

enef

its o

f exp

andi

ng n

atur

al g

as d

istri

butio

n se

rvic

e to

mor

e M

assa

chus

etts

hou

seho

lds

and

busi

ness

es (“

the

Nat

ural

Gas

Stu

dy”)

Th

e pu

rpos

e of

the

Nat

ural

Gas

Stu

dy is

to d

evel

op a

n an

alyt

ical

fram

ewor

k,

findi

ngs,

and

reco

mm

enda

tions

rega

rdin

g na

tura

l gas

dis

tribu

tion

expa

nsio

n in

lig

ht o

f cha

ngin

g m

arke

t con

ditio

ns a

nd e

nviro

nmen

tal i

ssue

s

The

DO

ER

ant

icip

ates

that

the

outc

ome

of th

e N

atur

al G

as S

tudy

, alo

ng w

ith it

s re

new

able

ther

mal

exp

ansi

on s

tudy

, cou

ld re

sult

in n

ew a

ppro

ache

s w

ith

resp

ect t

o th

erm

al p

olic

ies

in M

assa

chus

etts

Th

e N

atur

al G

as S

tudy

will

eval

uate

the

bene

fits,

cos

ts, a

nd c

halle

nges

as

soci

ated

with

nat

ural

gas

LD

C e

xpan

sion

und

er a

rang

e of

pot

entia

l stra

tegy

op

tions

20

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 21 of 65

000356

3. N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s: N

ew Y

ork

City

G

as c

onve

rsio

n re

ques

ts h

ave

incr

ease

d be

twee

n 20

10 a

nd 2

013

P

laN

YC

cal

ls fo

r the

elim

inat

ion

of th

e us

e of

No.

4 a

nd 6

hea

ting

oil

N

o pe

rmits

for n

ew N

o. 4

or 6

boi

lers

(unl

ess

emis

sion

s as

cle

an a

s N

o. 2

oil)

N

o ce

rtific

ate

of o

pera

tion

will

be

rene

wed

for

No.

6 b

oile

r as

of J

uly

2012

(unl

ess

emis

sion

s as

cle

an a

s N

o. 4

oil)

A

ll bo

ilers

mus

t use

No.

2 o

il, n

atur

al g

as o

r eq

uiva

lent

upo

n re

tirem

ent o

r by

2030

C

on E

diso

n is

fore

cast

ing

peak

usa

ge o

ver

the

next

five

yea

rs to

incr

ease

C

EC

ON

Y G

as: 3

.8%

ann

ually

O

&R

Gas

: 0.7

% a

nnua

lly

Pote

ntia

l Con

vers

ions

by

Fuel

Typ

eM

ulti-

Fam

ily a

nd C

omm

erci

al B

uild

ings

Year

Num

ber o

f Con

vers

ions

2010

73

2011

310

2012

855

Thro

ugh

Sep.

201

387

0

Num

ber o

f Con

vers

ions

–C

ECO

NY

Gas

Mul

ti-Fa

mily

and

Com

mer

cial

Bui

ldin

gs

Sou

rce:

Con

Edi

son,

Inve

stor

Pre

sent

atio

n at

the

Edi

son

Ele

ctric

Inst

itute

Fin

ance

Con

fere

nce,

Nov

embe

r 10-

12, 2

013

No.

2 O

il,

70%

No.

4 O

il,

12%

No.

6 O

il,

18%

21

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 22 of 65

000357

3. N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s: M

ariti

mes

Can

ada

A

ccor

ding

to a

rece

nt N

ova

Sco

tia D

epar

tmen

t of E

nerg

y (“N

S D

OE

”) S

tudy

:

Nat

ural

Gas

Dem

and:

•M

ariti

mes

Can

ada

natu

ral g

as c

onsu

mpt

ion

will

incr

ease

from

app

roxi

mat

ely

62 B

cf in

201

2 (i.

e.,

170

MM

cf/d

ay) t

o ap

prox

imat

ely

70 B

cf b

y 20

20 (i

.e.,

192

MM

cf/d

ay),

larg

ely

driv

en b

y th

e po

wer

ge

nera

tion

segm

ent

•G

as-fi

red

gene

ratio

n in

Nov

a S

cotia

has

incr

ease

d fro

m 3

% o

f tot

al g

ener

atio

n in

200

6 to

ove

r 20%

in

201

2

N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y:•

Mar

itim

es C

anad

a na

tura

l gas

sup

ply

is e

xpec

ted

to s

hift

from

a re

lianc

e on

offs

hore

nat

ural

gas

re

sour

ces

(i.e.

, SO

EP,

Dee

p P

anuk

e) to

ext

erna

l sou

rces

of n

atur

al g

as s

uppl

y (e

.g.,

LNG

, or

impo

rts fr

om th

e U

.S.)

•O

ne o

f the

focu

s ar

eas

of th

e N

S D

OE

Stu

dy w

as u

pstre

am c

apac

ity c

ontra

ctin

g, s

peci

fical

ly:

“[g]iv

en th

e ne

ed fo

r ext

erna

l sup

ply,

ICF

belie

ves

ther

e is

a s

trong

arg

umen

t for

Mar

itim

es C

anad

a co

nsum

ers

to c

ontra

ct fo

r firm

pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty o

n on

e of

the

prop

osed

pip

elin

e ex

pans

ions

into

N

ew E

ngla

nd th

at w

ould

allo

w s

hipp

ers

to b

uy g

as a

t one

of t

he M

arce

llus

basi

n hu

bs to

an

inte

rcon

nect

ion

with

M&

NP.

Thi

s w

ould

ens

ure

a re

liabl

e so

urce

of g

as a

s w

ell a

s av

oid

the

pric

e vo

latil

ity in

New

Eng

land

.”

Sou

rce:

Nov

a S

cotia

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy,

The

Fut

ure

of N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y fo

r Nov

a S

cotia

, pre

pare

d by

ICF

Con

sulti

ng C

anad

a, In

c., M

arch

28, 2

013

22

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 23 of 65

000358

3. N

atur

al G

as D

eman

d D

river

s: P

ower

Gen

erat

ion

Th

ere

are

appr

oxim

atel

y 35

0 ge

nera

ting

units

in th

e IS

O N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

–a

tota

l of

over

32,

000

MW

of g

ener

atin

g ca

paci

ty –

with

nat

ural

gas

-fire

d ge

nera

tors

repr

esen

ting

appr

oxim

atel

y 43

% o

f tot

al g

ener

atin

g ca

paci

ty a

nd 5

2% o

f tot

al e

lect

ric e

nerg

y pr

oduc

tion

in 2

012

S

ever

al k

ey g

ener

atin

g fa

cilit

ies,

whi

ch re

pres

ent n

early

10%

of t

he re

gion

’s to

tal c

apac

ity,

have

ann

ounc

ed p

lans

to re

tire

over

the

next

thre

e ye

ars:

S

alem

Har

bor (

750

MW

) –sc

hedu

led

to b

e re

tired

by

June

201

4; e

xpec

ted

to b

e re

plac

ed b

y a

new

ap

prox

imat

ely

700

MW

com

bine

d cy

cle

gas

turb

ine

faci

lity

Ve

rmon

t Yan

kee

(604

MW

) –ex

pect

ed to

be

deco

mm

issi

oned

in la

te 2

014;

sin

ce 2

007,

has

gen

erat

ed

appr

oxim

atel

y 4%

of t

he to

tal a

nnua

l ele

ctric

ity s

uppl

y in

New

Eng

land

B

rayt

on P

oint

(1,4

92 M

W) –

thre

e co

al-fi

red

units

and

sev

eral

oil-

fired

uni

ts s

ched

uled

to re

tire

by 2

017

N

orw

alk

Har

bor (

340

MW

) –oi

l-fire

d ge

nera

ting

faci

lity

sche

dule

d to

be

retir

ed b

y Ju

ne 2

017

A

s of

Jan

uary

1, 2

014,

ther

e ar

e 70

gen

erat

ion

proj

ects

in v

ario

us s

tage

s of

dev

elop

men

t in

the

ISO

New

Eng

land

regi

on to

talin

g 4,

980

MW

S

even

of t

he 7

0 pr

ojec

ts a

re d

ual f

uel (

i.e.,

natu

ral g

as a

nd o

il-fir

ed) g

ener

atio

n pr

ojec

ts lo

cate

d in

M

assa

chus

etts

and

Con

nect

icut

, for

a to

tal o

f 2,2

30 M

W, w

ith in

-ser

vice

dat

es b

etw

een

2014

and

201

7;

and

two

proj

ects

are

nat

ural

gas

com

bine

d-cy

cle

gene

ratio

n pr

ojec

ts, f

or a

tota

l of 5

03 M

W, w

ith in

-se

rvic

e da

tes

in 2

014

and

2017

S

tate

d di

ffere

ntly,

of t

he 4

,980

MW

of g

ener

atio

n be

ing

deve

lope

d, o

ver h

alf (

i.e.,

2,73

3 M

W) w

ill be

fu

eled

by

natu

ral g

asS

ourc

es: I

SO

New

Eng

land

, New

Eng

land

201

2-13

Reg

iona

l Pro

file

and

Mai

ne 2

012-

13 S

tate

Pro

file,

Feb

ruar

y 20

13; I

SO

New

Eng

land

, Sea

sona

l Cla

imed

C

apac

ity M

onth

ly R

epor

t, O

ctob

er 1

, 201

3; IS

O N

ew E

ngla

nd, S

tatu

s of

Non

-Pric

e R

etire

men

t Req

uest

s, D

ecem

ber 2

0, 2

013;

and

ISO

New

Eng

land

, In

terc

onne

ct R

eque

st Q

ueue

, Jan

uary

1, 2

014

23

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 24 of 65

000359

3. N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s: A

tlant

ic C

anad

a

Sou

rces

: Can

ada-

Nov

a S

cotia

Offs

hore

Pet

role

um B

oard

, Sab

le M

onth

ly P

rodu

ctio

n R

epor

ts, a

s of

Jan

uary

21,

201

4; N

ova

Sco

tia D

epar

tmen

t of E

nerg

y,

The

Futu

re o

f Nat

ural

Gas

Sup

ply

for N

ova

Sco

tia, p

repa

red

by IC

F C

onsu

lting

Can

ada,

Inc.

, Mar

ch 2

8, 2

013;

and

The

Chr

onic

le H

eral

d, “D

eep

Pan

uke

back

in

full

swin

g”, D

ecem

ber 1

1, 2

013

S

able

Offs

hore

Ene

rgy

Pro

ject

:

Nat

ural

gas

pro

duct

ion

from

SO

EP

decl

ined

from

a p

eak

of n

early

600

MM

cf/d

ay in

Dec

embe

r 20

01 to

240

MM

cf/d

ay in

Aug

ust 2

012;

sin

ce S

epte

mbe

r 201

2, a

vera

ge d

aily

SO

EP

prod

uctio

n ha

s de

clin

ed to

app

roxi

mat

ely

140

MM

cf/d

ay

D

eep

Pan

uke:

In

itial

pro

duct

ion

of 2

00 M

Mcf

/day

, with

pea

k ga

s pr

oduc

tion

of 3

00 M

Mcf

/day

D

ecem

ber 2

013:

Rea

ched

pro

duct

ion

of 2

90 M

Mcf

/day

Th

e na

tura

l gas

pro

duct

ion

prof

ile fo

r Dee

p P

anuk

e w

as a

ddre

ssed

by

a re

cent

Nov

a S

cotia

D

epar

tmen

t of E

nerg

y st

udy:

•“D

eep

Pan

uke,

is p

roje

cted

to c

ome

onlin

e in

mid

-201

3, w

ith p

eak

prod

uctio

n vo

lum

es o

f 300

MM

cfd

by

2014

-15.

Afte

r 201

5, p

rodu

ctio

n fro

m D

eep

Pan

uke

is p

roje

cted

to d

eclin

e, re

achi

ng 9

0 M

Mcf

d by

202

0 an

d le

ss th

an 2

0 M

Mcf

d by

203

5.”

Yea

r

Tota

l A

nnua

l P

rodu

ctio

n (M

Mcf

)

Avg

. Dai

ly

Pro

duct

ion

(MM

cf/d

ay)

2000

126,

983

347

2001

189,

755

520

2002

193,

273

530

2003

164,

706

451

2004

152,

779

417

2005

149,

174

409

2006

133,

957

367

2007

155,

432

426

2008

163,

687

447

2009

126,

469

346

2010

116,

454

319

2011

99,8

9527

420

1275

,806

207

2013

51,0

2014

0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec-99Aug-00Apr-01Dec-01Aug-02Apr-03Dec-03Aug-04Apr-05Dec-05Aug-06Apr-07Dec-07Aug-08Apr-09Dec-09Aug-10Apr-11Dec-11Aug-12Apr-13Dec-13

(MMcf/day)

24

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 25 of 65

000360

M

assa

chus

etts

LN

G fa

cilit

ies:

Im

ports

into

DO

MA

C’s

Eve

rett

LNG

term

inal

de

clin

ed fr

om a

n av

erag

e of

app

roxi

mat

ely

400

MM

cf/d

ay o

ver t

he 2

008

to 2

011

time

perio

d to

an

aver

age

of le

ss th

an 2

00

MM

cf/d

ay in

201

3

The

Nor

thea

st G

atew

ay te

rmin

al h

as n

ot

rece

ived

any

LN

G c

argo

es s

ince

Mar

ch

2010

, whi

le th

e N

eptu

ne L

NG

Dee

pwat

er

Por

t has

rece

ived

onl

y fo

ur s

hipm

ents

sin

ce

it ca

me

onlin

e in

Feb

ruar

y 20

10, w

ith n

o sh

ipm

ents

in 2

011,

201

2 or

201

3

C

anap

ort L

NG

:

Impo

rt vo

lum

es fr

om th

e C

anap

ort L

NG

fa

cilit

y, b

ased

on

a tw

elve

-mon

th ro

lling

aver

age,

pea

ked

at a

ppro

xim

atel

y 30

0 M

Mcf

/day

in th

e 20

11/2

012

win

ter a

nd h

ave

decl

ined

to b

elow

200

MM

cf/d

ay s

ince

M

arch

201

3

In te

rms

of p

eak

volu

me

send

out,

the

Can

apor

t LN

G fa

cilit

y pr

ovid

ed o

ver 7

00

MM

cf/d

ay o

n an

ave

rage

day

bas

is in

Ja

nuar

y 20

11 d

eclin

ing

to a

pea

k m

onth

av

erag

e da

y vo

lum

e se

ndou

t of 2

00

MM

cf/d

ay in

Nov

embe

r 201

3

3. N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s: Im

porte

d LN

G

Sou

rces

: U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy,

LN

G M

onth

ly R

epor

ts; a

nd N

atio

nal E

nerg

y B

oard

, LN

G S

hipm

ent D

etai

ls, a

s of

Jan

uary

27,

201

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-08

Jun-08

Nov-08

Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10

Dec-10

May-11

Oct-11

Mar-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Nov-13

(MMcf/day)

DO

MAC

- E

vere

tt LN

G

Nor

thea

st G

atew

ay

Nep

tune

Dee

pwat

er P

ort

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jul-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

(MMcf/day)Av

erag

e D

aily

Vol

umes

Rol

ling

12-m

onth

Ave

rage

25

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 26 of 65

000361

N

ew E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as p

rices

ha

ve h

isto

rical

ly tr

aded

at a

pr

emiu

m to

oth

er N

orth

Am

eric

an

loca

tions

H

owev

er, N

ew E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as

pric

es (a

s re

pres

ente

d by

the

Alg

onqu

in C

ityga

tes

natu

ral g

as

pric

e in

dex)

usu

ally

trad

e at

a

disc

ount

to th

e U

nite

d K

ingd

om

natu

ral g

as p

rices

(i.e

., N

atio

nal

Bal

anci

ng P

oint

(“U

K N

BP

”)) a

nd

Asi

an L

NG

pric

es, w

hich

has

re

duce

d th

e nu

mbe

r of L

NG

de

liver

ies

to th

e re

gion

3. N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s: L

NG

Mar

ket S

igna

ls

Sou

rces

: His

toric

al p

rices

thr

ough

Jan

uary

29,

201

4 fro

m S

NL

Fina

ncia

l and

Blo

ombe

rg P

rofe

ssio

nal;

forw

ard

settl

emen

t pric

es a

s of

Jan

uary

28,

201

4 fro

m

Blo

ombe

rg P

rofe

ssio

nal;

and

FER

C, W

inte

r 201

3-14

Ene

rgy

Mar

ket A

sses

smen

t Rep

ort t

o th

e C

omm

issi

on, O

ctob

er 1

7, 2

013

Acc

ordi

ng to

the

FER

C: “

…LN

G is

like

ly to

rem

ain

in s

hort

supp

ly th

is w

inte

r with

pric

e sp

ikes

in

New

Eng

land

not

sus

tain

ed lo

ng e

noug

h to

ince

ntiv

ize

LNG

car

gos.

GD

F S

uez,

the

owne

r of

the

Eve

rett

LNG

pla

nt in

Mas

sach

uset

ts, i

s un

der c

ontra

ct to

div

ert a

lmos

t hal

f of i

ts

supp

lies

to h

ighe

r pric

ed a

reas

els

ewhe

re in

the

wor

ld…

Rep

sol,

the

owne

r of C

anap

ort L

NG

, do

es n

ot a

ntic

ipat

e re

ceiv

ing

man

y ca

rgos

this

win

ter o

r goi

ng fo

rwar

d. A

s of

mid

-201

3,

Rep

sol i

s un

der c

ontra

ct to

rece

ive

abou

t tw

o sh

ipm

ents

of L

NG

a y

ear,

just

eno

ugh

to k

eep

the

term

inal

ope

ratin

g.”

$0$5$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

Nov-08Feb-09May-09Aug-09Nov-09Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-12Feb-13May-13Aug-13Nov-13Feb-14May-14Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15

($/MMBtu)Av

g. D

aily

Alg

onqu

in C

ityga

tes

Avg.

Dai

ly U

K N

BPJa

pan

LNG

Impo

rt Pr

ice

Fore

cast

His

toric

al

26

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 27 of 65

000362

3. N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s: T

rans

Can

ada

Pip

eLin

es L

imite

d

In

Dec

embe

r 201

3, T

CP

Lfil

ed w

ith th

e N

EB

its

Mai

nlin

e S

ettle

men

t Agr

eem

ent

with

the

east

ern

Can

adia

n LD

Cs

(i.e.

, Uni

on G

as L

td.,

Gaz

Met

ro L

imite

d P

artn

ersh

ip a

nd E

nbrid

ge G

as D

istri

butio

n) in

con

nect

ion

with

acc

ess

to D

awn

and

Nia

gara

sup

plie

s an

d lo

ng-te

rm to

lls

Acc

ordi

ng to

the

TCP

L ap

plic

atio

n: “T

he S

ettle

men

t bui

lds

upon

the

RH

-003

-201

1 D

ecis

ion

and

reso

lves

var

ious

regu

lato

ry a

nd ju

dici

al p

roce

edin

gs th

at a

rose

sin

ce th

e B

oard

’s d

ecis

ion

in th

e R

H-0

03-2

011

proc

eedi

ng a

nd a

ddre

sses

the

requ

irem

ent t

hat

Tran

sCan

ada

file

a to

lls a

pplic

atio

n in

the

even

t tha

t one

of t

he o

ff-ra

mps

is re

ache

d be

fore

the

end

of th

e pe

riod

of fi

xed

tolls

est

ablis

hed

by th

e D

ecis

ion.

”

Th

e M

ainl

ine

Set

tlem

ent A

gree

men

t mus

t be

appr

oved

by

the

NE

B b

efor

e be

ing

plac

ed

into

effe

ct in

Jan

uary

201

5

O

ver 2

0 in

terv

enin

g pa

rties

hav

e su

bmitt

ed c

omm

ents

in re

spon

se to

the

TCP

L ap

plic

atio

n

Fr

om N

ovem

ber 2

9, 2

013

to J

anua

ry 1

5, 2

014,

TC

PL

cond

ucte

d a

bind

ing

open

se

ason

for c

apac

ity o

n th

e TC

PL

Mai

nlin

e. T

he b

indi

ng o

pen

seas

on is

pr

emis

ed o

n N

EB

app

rova

l of t

he M

ainl

ine

Set

tlem

ent A

gree

men

t

Sou

rces

: Tra

nsC

anad

a P

ipel

ines

Lim

ited,

App

licat

ion

for A

ppro

val o

f Mai

nlin

e 20

13-2

013

Set

tlem

ent,

Dec

embe

r 201

3; a

nd c

ompa

ny w

ebsi

te27

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 28 of 65

000363

D

ry s

hale

gas

pro

duct

ion

from

the

Mar

cellu

s S

hale

bas

in h

as s

igni

fican

tly

incr

ease

d fro

m le

ss th

an 0

.5 B

cf/d

ay in

A

ugus

t 200

9 to

app

roxi

mat

ely

11.5

B

cf/d

ay in

Dec

embe

r 201

3

The

U.S

. Ene

rgy

Info

rmat

ion

Adm

inis

tratio

n (“

EIA

”) is

fore

cast

ing

natu

ral g

as p

rodu

ctio

n fro

m th

e N

orth

east

U.S

. will

incr

ease

from

less

th

an 4

.0 T

cf in

201

3 to

app

roxi

mat

ely

5.3

Tcf i

n 20

20, a

nd o

ver 8

.0 T

cf in

204

0

The

incr

ease

in M

arce

llus

Sha

le

prod

uctio

n co

uple

d w

ith th

e E

IA’s

pr

ojec

tion

of c

ontin

ued

deve

lopm

ent o

f th

is n

atur

al g

as s

hale

pla

y re

sults

in th

e M

arce

llus

Sha

le b

ecom

ing

a cr

itica

l na

tura

l gas

sup

ply

sour

ce fo

r the

New

E

ngla

nd re

gion

3. N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s: M

arce

llus

Sha

le P

rodu

ctio

n

Sou

rces

: U.S

. Ene

rgy

Info

rmat

ion

Adm

inis

tratio

n, N

atur

al G

as W

eekl

y U

pdat

e fo

r wee

k en

ding

Jan

uary

22,

201

4; a

nd U

.S. E

nerg

y In

form

atio

n A

dmin

istra

tion,

A

nnua

l Ene

rgy

Out

look

201

4 w

ith p

roje

ctio

ns to

204

0, L

ower

48

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

and

Sup

ply

Pric

es b

y S

uppl

y R

egio

n, D

ecem

ber 1

6, 2

013

Fore

cast

ed N

atur

al G

as P

rodu

ctio

n (2

011

–20

40)

05101520253035

Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13

Dry Shale Gas Production (Bcf/day)

Antri

m (M

I, IN

, & O

H)

Bakk

en (N

D)

Woo

dfor

d (O

K)

Barn

ett (

TX)

Faye

ttevi

lle (A

R)

Eagl

e Fo

rd (T

X)

Hay

nesv

ille (L

A &

TX)

Mar

cellu

s (P

A &

WV

)R

est o

f US

'sha

le'

Dry

Sha

le G

as P

rodu

ctio

n (2

008

–20

13)

28

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 29 of 65

000364

B

oth

AG

T an

d TG

P ar

e fu

lly

subs

crib

ed (i

nto

New

Eng

land

) and

ha

ve e

xper

ienc

ed s

igni

fican

t in

terr

uptib

le o

r non

-firm

cap

acity

co

nstra

ints

due

to in

crea

sed

utili

zatio

n as

soci

ated

with

Mar

cellu

s S

hale

sup

ply

In

a re

cent

pre

sent

atio

n, A

GT

repo

rted

an in

crea

sing

num

ber o

f day

s w

ith n

o in

terr

uptib

le c

apac

ity a

vaila

ble

on it

s pi

pelin

e

TGP

also

has

exp

erie

nced

hig

h ut

iliza

tion

in th

e N

orth

east

U.S

. dur

ing

both

the

win

ter a

nd s

umm

er p

erio

ds

M

ost r

ecen

tly, T

GP

expe

rienc

ed

inte

rrup

tible

tran

spor

tatio

n re

stric

tions

at

Com

pres

sor S

tatio

n 24

5 in

New

Yor

k 94

%

of th

e da

ys in

the

2012

sum

mer

and

100

%

of th

e da

ys in

the

2012

/201

3 w

inte

r

3. N

atur

al G

as S

uppl

y D

river

s: C

apac

ity C

onst

rain

ts

Sou

rces

: Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy,

201

3 P

re-W

inte

r Ope

ratio

ns M

eetin

g, N

ovem

ber

5, 2

013;

and

Ten

ness

ee G

as P

ipel

ine

Co,

LLC

, Pre

sent

atio

n to

New

E

ngla

nd G

as-E

lect

ric F

ocus

Gro

up, O

ctob

er 1

8, 2

013

29

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 30 of 65

000365

3. N

atur

al G

as P

rice

and

Bas

is A

naly

sis

To

pro

vide

con

text

for t

he e

valu

atio

n of

the

cost

s an

d be

nefit

s as

soci

ated

with

in

crem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty in

to th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

, the

regi

onal

nat

ural

ga

s pr

ices

and

bas

is d

iffer

entia

ls w

ere

anal

yzed

ove

r the

pas

t fiv

e sp

lit-y

ears

(i.

e., 2

008/

2009

to 2

012/

2013

)

The

follo

win

g pr

icin

g po

ints

wer

e re

view

ed:

A

lgon

quin

City

gate

s (“

ALG

CG

”): D

eliv

ery

poin

ts in

Con

nect

icut

, Mas

sach

uset

ts a

nd

Rho

de Is

land

off

of A

lgon

quin

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on•

The

ALG

CG

pric

e in

dex

was

util

ized

as

a pr

oxy

for t

he N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

pric

e. O

ther

New

E

ngla

nd re

gion

pric

e in

dice

s in

clud

e Te

nnes

see

at D

racu

t and

Ten

ness

ee Z

one

6

Te

tco

M-3

(“TE

TM3”

): M

arke

t Are

a 3

zone

of T

exas

Eas

tern

Pip

elin

e, w

hich

runs

from

W

estm

orel

and

Cou

nty,

Pa.

, to

Mor

ris C

ount

y, N

.J.

H

enry

Hub

: In

Verm

ilion

Par

ish

in S

outh

Lou

isia

na, t

he H

ub h

as 1

4 in

terc

onne

ctin

g pi

pelin

es.

Pip

elin

es in

clud

e Tr

unkl

ine

Gas

, Tra

nsco

ntin

enta

l Gas

Pip

elin

e (“

Tran

sco”

), C

olum

bia

Gul

f Tra

nsm

issi

on, T

exas

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on, S

abin

e P

ipe

Line

, Nat

ural

Gas

P

ipel

ine

Co.

, Sou

ther

n N

atur

al G

as a

nd G

ulf S

outh

Pip

elin

e

Not

e: A

ll hi

stor

ical

nat

ural

gas

pric

ing

data

and

def

initi

ons

are

sour

ced

from

SN

L Fi

nanc

ial

30

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 31 of 65

000366

3. N

atur

al G

as P

rice

and

Bas

is A

naly

sis

(con

t.)

M

id-A

tlant

ic n

atur

al g

as p

rices

, as

repr

esen

ted

by th

e TE

TM3

natu

ral g

as p

rice

inde

x, h

ave

hist

oric

ally

bee

n pr

iced

at a

pre

miu

m to

the

Hen

ry H

ub p

rice

inde

x

Nat

ural

gas

pric

es in

New

Eng

land

, as

repr

esen

ted

by th

e A

LGC

G n

atur

al g

as

pric

e in

dex,

hav

e be

en a

t an

addi

tiona

l pre

miu

m to

the

Mid

-Atla

ntic

nat

ural

gas

pr

ices

Th

e A

LGC

G n

atur

al g

as p

rice

inde

x ha

s ex

hibi

ted

sign

ifica

ntly

mor

e da

ily

vola

tility

than

the

Hen

ry H

ub n

atur

al g

as p

rice

inde

x, w

ith A

LGC

G p

rices

dur

ing

this

cur

rent

win

ter (

i.e.,

win

ter 2

013/

2014

) exc

eedi

ng $

77.0

0/M

MB

tu

Not

e: N

atur

al g

as p

rice

vola

tility

was

cal

cula

ted

for e

ach

split

-yea

r by

“mul

tiply

ing

the

stan

dard

dev

iatio

n of

the

daily

loga

rithm

ic p

rice

chan

ges,

∆p,

for a

ll tra

ding

day

s w

ithin

a c

erta

in ti

me

perio

d by

the

squa

re ro

ot o

f he

num

ber o

f tra

ding

day

s w

ithin

the

time

perio

d.” S

ee, U

.S. E

nerg

y In

form

atio

n A

dmin

istra

tion,

A

n A

naly

sis

of P

rice

Vol

atili

ty in

Nat

ural

Gas

Mar

kets

, Aug

ust 2

007.

Sou

rce:

His

toric

al p

rices

thr

ough

Jan

uary

29,

201

4 fro

m S

NL

Fina

ncia

l

0%50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

2008

/200

920

09/2

010

2010

/201

120

11/2

012

2012

/201

320

13/2

014*

Volatility

Split

-Yea

r (N

ov-O

ct)

Hen

ry H

ub

TETM

3

ALG

CG

-$10$0$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Basis Differential ($/MMBtu)

ALG

CG

-Hen

ry H

ubTE

TM3-

Hen

ry H

ub

* 20

13/2

014

data

thro

ugh

Janu

ary

29, 2

014

31

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 32 of 65

000367

Th

e nu

mbe

rs o

f day

s in

w

hich

the

daily

New

E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as p

rice

prem

ium

to H

enry

Hub

is

grea

ter t

han

$2.0

0/M

MB

tu,

or e

ven

as h

igh

as

$5.0

0/M

MBt

u, h

as

incr

ease

d si

gnifi

cant

ly o

ver

the

past

few

yea

rs

The

New

Eng

land

nat

ural

ga

s pr

ice

prem

ium

to H

enry

H

ub ra

rely

exc

eede

d $1

0.00

/MM

Btu

ove

r the

20

08/2

009

to 2

011/

2012

tim

e pe

riod;

how

ever

, it

exce

eded

that

pric

e le

vel

on 2

5 da

ys in

201

2/20

13

and

has

alre

ady

exce

eded

th

at p

rice

leve

l on

28 d

ays

of th

e cu

rren

t 201

3/20

14

split

-yea

r

3. N

atur

al G

as P

rice

and

Bas

is A

naly

sis

(con

t.)

* 20

13/2

014

data

thro

ugh

Janu

ary

29, 2

014

Sou

rces

: His

toric

al p

rices

thr

ough

Jan

uary

29,

201

4 fro

m S

NL

Fina

ncia

l

$0.0

0

$0.5

0

$1.0

0

$1.5

0

$2.0

0

$2.5

0

$3.0

0

$3.5

0

$0$5$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

131

6191

121

151

181

211

241

271

301

331

361

Split-Year Average ($/MMBtu)

($/MMBtu)

Day

s ---

-->

Bas

is D

iffer

entia

ls: A

lgon

quin

City

gate

s -H

enry

Hub

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2

2012

/201

3

Aver

age

2008

/200

9 =

$0.9

2

Aver

age

2009

/201

0 =

$0.6

8

Aver

age

2010

/201

1 =

$1.3

0

Aver

age

2011

/201

2 =

$0.8

1

Aver

age

2012

/201

3 =

$2.8

4

2008

/200

920

09/2

010

2010

/201

120

11/2

012

2012

/201

320

13/2

014*

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$1

0.00

10

20

2528

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$5

.00

131

243

5338

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$2

.00

4027

6121

124

56G

reat

er th

an o

r equ

al to

$1.0

078

4311

385

164

64G

reat

er th

an o

r equ

al to

$0.5

015

411

819

121

820

779

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to$0

.25

339

360

323

295

257

85G

reat

er th

an$0

.00

362

365

365

365

334

86Le

ss th

an o

r equ

al to

$0.0

03

00

031

4

ALG

CG-H

enry

Hub

Ba

sis

Diffe

rent

ial (

$/M

MB

tu)

Num

ber o

f Day

s

32

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 33 of 65

000368

3. N

atur

al G

as P

rice

and

Bas

is A

naly

sis

(con

t.)

Th

e 20

12/2

013

win

ter p

rice

diffe

rent

ial b

etw

een

the

New

Eng

land

and

Gul

f of M

exic

o pr

icin

g in

dice

s av

erag

ed o

ver $

6.00

/MM

Btu

, whi

ch is

the

high

est l

evel

obs

erve

d ov

er th

e fiv

e-ye

ar h

isto

rical

per

iod

from

200

8/20

09 to

201

2/20

13

The

curr

ent 2

013/

2014

ALG

CG

to H

enry

Hub

bas

is a

vera

ged

$9.8

6/M

MB

tu, w

hich

is n

early

fo

ur ti

mes

hig

her t

han

the

five-

year

his

toric

al a

vera

ge o

f $2.

50/M

MB

tu

New

Eng

land

forw

ard

pric

es a

re e

xpec

ted

to c

ontin

ue to

be

at a

pre

miu

m to

Hen

ry H

ub a

nd

Mid

-Atla

ntic

nat

ural

gas

pric

es

The

high

nat

ural

gas

pre

miu

m (i

.e.,

basi

s di

ffere

ntia

l) be

twee

n th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd a

nd M

id-

Atla

ntic

mar

kets

refle

cts

the

exis

ting

pipe

line

cons

train

t bet

wee

n th

e M

id-A

tlant

ic m

arke

t, w

hich

has

sig

nific

ant a

cces

s to

nat

ural

gas

pro

duct

ion

from

Mar

cellu

s S

hale

, and

the

New

E

ngla

nd m

arke

t

Split

-Yea

r (N

ov-O

ct)

Win

ter (

Nov

-Mar

)Su

mm

er (A

pr-O

ct)

Annu

al (N

ov-O

ct)

TETM

3-H

enry

Hub

ALG

CG

-H

enry

Hub

ALG

CG

-TE

TM3

TETM

3-H

enry

Hub

ALG

CG

-H

enry

Hub

ALG

CG

-TE

TM3

TETM

3-H

enry

Hub

ALG

CG

-H

enry

Hub

ALG

CG

-TE

TM3

2008

/200

91.

511.

700.

190.

340.

370.

040.

820.

920.

1020

09/2

010

0.79

1.06

0.27

0.34

0.40

0.07

0.52

0.68

0.15

2010

/201

11.

882.

470.

590.

260.

480.

210.

931.

300.

3720

11/2

012

0.28

1.09

0.81

0.17

0.61

0.44

0.22

0.81

0.59

2012

/201

30.

676.

175.

500.

030.

480.

450.

292.

842.

5420

13/2

014

[1]

5.29

9.86

4.56

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

His

toric

al A

vera

ge

(200

8/09

-201

2/13

)1.

022.

501.

470.

230.

470.

240.

561.

310.

75

2013

/201

4 [2

]5.

1612

.34

7.17

(0.7

0)0.

461.

161.

745.

413.

6720

14/2

015

1.42

8.50

7.08

(0.9

1)0.

251.

160.

063.

693.

6320

15/2

016

1.20

7.95

6.75

(0.9

2)0.

141.

05(0

.08)

3.29

3.37

Forw

ard

Ave

rage

(2

013/

14-2

015/

16) [

2]2.

599.

597.

00(0

.84)

0.28

1.12

(0.5

7)4.

133.

55

[1] H

isto

rical

spl

it-ye

ar 2

013/

2014

incl

udes

dat

a th

roug

h Ja

nuar

y 29

, 201

4[2

] Win

ter 2

013/

2014

bas

ed o

n hi

stor

ical

mon

thly

ave

rage

s fo

r Nov

embe

r 201

3-Ja

nuar

y 20

14, a

nd fo

rwar

d se

ttlem

ent p

rices

for F

ebru

ary-

Mar

ch 2

014

Sou

rces

: His

toric

al p

rices

thr

ough

Jan

uary

29,

201

4 fro

m S

NL

Fina

ncia

l; an

d fo

rwar

d se

ttlem

ent p

rices

as

of J

anua

ry 2

8, 2

014

from

Blo

ombe

rg P

rofe

ssio

nal

33

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 34 of 65

000369

Con

tent

s

1.In

trodu

ctio

n

2.E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y

3.N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w

4.N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

N

orth

east

Pip

elin

e In

frast

ruct

ure

Act

ivity

P

roje

ct M

etric

s / I

nfor

mat

ion

5.C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s

6.S

umm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

34

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 35 of 65

000370

4. N

orth

east

Pip

elin

e In

frast

ruct

ure

Act

ivity

Th

ere

have

bee

n si

gnifi

cant

nat

ural

gas

pip

elin

e ex

pans

ions

in th

e N

orth

east

U

.S. a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith th

e de

velo

pmen

t of t

he M

arce

llus

Sha

le a

nd U

tica

Sha

le

natu

ral g

as p

lays

In

201

3, a

ppro

xim

atel

y 3.

2 B

cf/d

ay o

f nat

ural

gas

pip

elin

e ex

pans

ion

proj

ects

in

the

Nor

thea

st U

.S. h

ave

com

e on

-line

S

ever

al k

ey p

roje

cts

are

targ

eted

to a

llevi

ate

the

curre

nt c

apac

ity c

onst

rain

ts

into

New

Eng

land

, or w

ill ha

ve a

dire

ct im

pact

on

the

New

Eng

land

and

Atla

ntic

C

anad

a re

gion

s:

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

–AI

M P

roje

ct

S

pect

ra E

nerg

y an

d M

&N

P –

Atla

ntic

Brid

ge

Kin

der M

orga

n –

Nor

thea

st E

xpan

sion

TC

PL

–M

ainl

ine

Sys

tem

Ope

n S

easo

n / P

NG

TS –

C2C

Exp

ansi

on P

roje

ct

[1] N

ote:

Est

imat

es fo

r cap

ital e

xpen

ditu

res

(“C

apEx

”) w

ere

not a

vaila

ble

for c

erta

in o

f th

e pr

ojec

ts; t

here

fore

, the

Cap

Ex

estim

ates

refle

ct th

e da

ta th

at is

ava

ilabl

e

Stat

usC

apac

ityEs

timat

ed C

apEx

On-

Line

(sin

ce 2

010)

App

rox.

8.6

Bcf

/day

$5.8

billi

on

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

App

rox.

0.5

Bcf/d

ay$0

.5 b

illion

Und

er R

egul

ator

y R

evie

wAp

prox

. 5.2

Bcf

/day

$3.9

billi

on

Anno

unce

dAp

prox

. 8.0

Bcf

/day

$4.5

billi

on[1

]

Sou

rce:

Bas

ed o

n S

usse

x re

view

and

ana

lysi

s of

pub

lic d

ocum

ents

35

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 36 of 65

000371

4. S

pect

ra E

nerg

y –

AIM

Pro

ject

O

wne

r: S

pect

ra E

nerg

y / A

lgon

quin

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on

P

ropo

sed

Faci

litie

s:

A

ppro

xim

atel

y 36

.7 m

iles

of ta

ke-u

p an

d re

lay,

loop

and

late

ral p

ipel

ine

faci

litie

s, m

odifi

catio

ns to

five

co

mpr

esso

r sta

tions

, mod

ifica

tions

to 2

4 ex

istin

g M

&R

sta

tions

, and

con

stru

ctio

n of

thre

e ne

w M

&R

sta

tions

R

ecei

pt p

oint

s: M

illen

nium

at R

amap

o, N

Y a

nd T

GP

at M

ahw

ah, N

J

D

eliv

ery

poin

ts: M

ultip

le d

eliv

ery

poin

ts

S

hipp

ers:

10

LDC

s in

CT,

MA

and

RI (

i.e.,

Yank

ee G

as, N

STA

R G

as, C

onne

ctic

ut N

atur

al G

as, S

outh

ern

Con

nect

icut

Gas

, The

Nar

raga

nset

t Ele

ctric

Com

pany

, Col

onia

l Gas

, Bos

ton

Gas

, Col

umbi

a G

as o

f M

assa

chus

etts

, Nor

wic

h P

ublic

Util

ities

and

Mid

dleb

orou

gh G

as &

Ele

ctric

)

C

apac

ity: 3

42,0

00 D

th/d

ay

E

stim

ated

Cap

Ex:

$1

billio

n

A

ntic

ipat

ed In

-Ser

vice

Dat

e: N

ovem

ber 2

016

R

egul

ator

y S

tatu

s:

P

refil

ed w

ith F

ER

C: J

une

2013

C

T P

UR

A p

re-a

ppro

ved

CT

LDC

PA

s on

Nov

. 22,

201

3

M

assa

chus

etts

DP

U a

ppro

ved

MA

LD

C P

As

on J

an. 3

1, 2

014

Fi

le m

ajor

per

mit

appl

icat

ions

: Q1/

2014

R

ecei

ve F

ER

C c

ertif

icat

e: Q

1/20

15

B

egin

con

stru

ctio

n:Q

2/20

15

Sou

rce:

Bas

ed o

n S

usse

x re

view

and

ana

lysi

s of

pub

lic d

ocum

ents

36

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 37 of 65

000372

4. S

pect

ra E

nerg

y an

d M

&N

P –

Atla

ntic

Brid

ge

O

wne

rs: S

pect

ra E

nerg

y / A

lgon

quin

Gas

Tra

nsm

issi

on a

nd M

ariti

mes

& N

orth

east

Pip

elin

e

P

ropo

sed

Faci

litie

s:

R

ecei

pt p

oint

s: M

illen

nium

at R

amap

o, N

Y a

nd T

exas

Eas

tern

at L

ambe

rtvill

e, N

J

D

eliv

ery

poin

ts: E

xist

ing

and

new

del

iver

y po

ints

on

AG

T an

d M

&N

P

S

hipp

ers:

An

chor

shi

pper

–U

nitil

Cor

pora

tion

O

ther

shi

pper

s –

TBD

(rel

iant

on

open

sea

son)

C

apac

ity: 1

00,0

00 –

600,

000

Dth

/day

(Sca

labl

e)

E

stim

ated

Cap

Ex:

TB

D

A

ntic

ipat

ed In

-Ser

vice

Dat

e: N

ovem

ber 2

017

R

egul

ator

y S

tatu

s:

Ope

n se

ason

from

Feb

ruar

y 5,

201

4 to

Mar

ch 3

1, 2

014

Ta

rget

Mar

kets

:

N

ew E

ngla

nd a

nd A

tlant

ic C

anad

a

Sou

rce:

Bas

ed o

n S

usse

x re

view

and

ana

lysi

s of

pub

lic d

ocum

ents

37

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 38 of 65

000373

4. K

inde

r Mor

gan

–N

orth

east

Exp

ansi

on

O

wne

r: K

inde

r Mor

gan

/ Ten

ness

ee G

as P

ipel

ine

P

ropo

sed

Faci

litie

s:

App

rox.

179

mile

s of

pip

elin

e, la

tera

ls a

s ne

cess

ary,

ad

ditio

nal m

eter

sta

tions

, and

mod

ifica

tions

to e

xist

ing

faci

litie

s

Rec

eipt

poi

nt: I

GT

and

Con

stitu

tion

at W

right

, NY

D

eliv

ery

poin

t: M

&N

P at

Dra

cut,

MA

C

apac

ity: 6

00,0

00 –

2,20

0,00

0 D

th/d

ay

Est

imat

ed C

apE

x: $

1.75

-$2

.75

billio

n

Est

imat

ed R

ates

: Neg

otia

ted

rate

s

Ant

icip

ated

In-S

ervi

ce D

ate:

Nov

embe

r 201

8

Reg

ulat

ory

Sta

tus:

N

on-b

indi

ng o

pen

seas

on fr

om F

ebru

ary

13, 2

014

to M

arch

28,

201

4

File

maj

or p

erm

it ap

plic

atio

ns: Q

3/20

14

B

egin

con

stru

ctio

n: Q

2/20

17

Ups

tream

/Dow

nstre

am Is

sues

: Con

stitu

tion

Pip

elin

e w

ill pr

ovid

e a

sour

ce o

f gas

sup

ply

at W

right

, NY

S

hipp

ers:

Cab

ot O

il &

Gas

and

Sou

thw

este

rn E

nerg

y S

ervi

ces

Com

pany

FE

RC

fina

l env

ironm

enta

l ass

essm

ent t

o be

issu

ed b

y m

id-J

une

2014

A

ntic

ipat

ed In

-Ser

vice

Dat

e: M

arch

201

5

Sou

rce:

Bas

ed o

n S

usse

x re

view

and

ana

lysi

s of

pub

lic d

ocum

ents

38

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 39 of 65

000374

4. T

CP

L –

Mai

nlin

e S

yste

m O

pen

Sea

son

O

wne

r: Tr

ansC

anad

a P

ipeL

ines

Lim

ited

P

ropo

sed

Faci

litie

s:

Rec

eipt

poi

nts:

Em

pres

s, S

t. C

lair,

Daw

n, K

irkw

all,

Nia

gara

Fal

ls, C

hipp

awa,

Par

kway

and

Iroq

uois

D

eliv

ery

poin

t: A

ny d

eliv

ery

poin

t on

syst

em

E

stim

ated

Rat

es: S

ervi

ce is

offe

red

unde

r the

follo

win

g to

ll sc

hedu

les

(15

year

term

):

Thro

ugh

Dec

embe

r 31,

201

4 –

Cur

rent

tolls

will

rem

ain

in e

ffect

(“R

H-0

03-2

011

Com

plia

nce

Tolls

”)

Ja

nuar

y 1,

201

5 to

Dec

embe

r 31,

202

0 –

Tolls

to b

e fix

ed, o

ne ti

me

rese

t, an

d br

idgi

ng c

ontri

butio

n ch

arge

Ja

nuar

y 1,

202

1 to

Dec

embe

r 31,

203

0 –

Cos

t of s

ervi

ce fo

r TC

PL

segm

ents

util

ized

A

ntic

ipat

ed In

-Ser

vice

Dat

e: N

ovem

ber 2

016

R

egul

ator

y S

tatu

s:

Bin

ding

ope

n se

ason

from

Nov

embe

r 29,

201

3 to

Jan

uary

15,

201

4

O

pen

Sea

son

is p

rem

ised

on

NE

B a

ppro

val o

f the

Mai

nlin

e S

ettle

men

t Agr

eem

ent d

ated

Oct

ober

31,

20

13, a

s am

ende

d on

Nov

embe

r 15,

201

3 an

d D

ecem

ber 1

3, 2

013

amon

g U

nion

Gas

Lim

ited,

E

nbrid

ge G

as D

istri

butio

n In

c., G

az M

etro

Lim

ited

Par

tner

ship

and

TC

PL,

and

impl

emen

tatio

n by

TC

PL

of ta

riff c

hang

es, i

nclu

ding

TC

PL’

s Tr

ansp

orta

tion

Acc

ess

Pro

cedu

res,

nec

essa

ry to

giv

e ef

fect

to th

e M

ainl

ine

Set

tlem

ent A

gree

men

t as

appr

oved

Sou

rce:

Bas

ed o

n S

usse

x re

view

and

ana

lysi

s of

pub

lic d

ocum

ents

39

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 40 of 65

000375

4. P

NG

TS –

C2C

Exp

ansi

on P

roje

ct

O

wne

r: P

ortla

nd N

atur

al G

as T

rans

mis

sion

Sys

tem

P

ropo

sed

Faci

litie

s:

Rec

eipt

poi

nt: P

ittsb

urg,

NH

D

eliv

ery

poin

t: W

estb

rook

, ME

N

o in

crem

enta

l cap

acity

to D

racu

t, M

A

C

apac

ity: 1

20,0

00 –

150,

000

Dth

/day

E

stim

ated

Rat

es: $

0.60

/Dth

A

ntic

ipat

ed In

-Ser

vice

Dat

e: N

ovem

ber 2

016

R

egul

ator

y S

tatu

s:

Bin

ding

ope

n se

ason

from

Dec

embe

r 3, 2

013

to J

anua

ry 2

4, 2

014

U

pstre

am/D

owns

tream

Issu

es:

B

idde

rs w

ill be

resp

onsi

ble

for m

akin

g th

eir o

wn

upst

ream

arra

ngem

ents

eith

er d

irect

ly w

ith T

CP

L/TQ

M,

or th

roug

h co

ntra

ctua

l arra

ngem

ents

with

oth

er u

pstre

am s

hipp

ers

to E

ast H

eref

ord

(Pitt

sbur

g)

M

inim

um te

rm o

f 15

year

s

Sou

rce:

Bas

ed o

n S

usse

x re

view

and

ana

lysi

s of

pub

lic d

ocum

ents

40

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 41 of 65

000376

Con

tent

s

1.In

trodu

ctio

n

2.E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y

3.N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w

4.N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

5.C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s

Ana

lysi

s O

verv

iew

B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n

Est

imat

ed C

ost R

ange

C

ost /

Ben

efit

Com

paris

on

6.S

umm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

41

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 42 of 65

000377

5. C

ost

/ Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: O

verv

iew

S

usse

x re

view

ed th

e be

nefit

of n

ew p

ipel

ine

capa

city

into

New

Eng

land

rela

tive

to th

e as

soci

ated

cos

t of s

uch

capa

city

In

crem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty in

to th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

wou

ld p

lace

do

wnw

ard

pres

sure

on

the

regi

onal

nat

ural

gas

pric

e in

dice

s an

d, th

eref

ore,

be

nefit

cus

tom

ers

who

use

thos

e pr

ice

sign

als

in tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Giv

en th

at th

e po

wer

gen

erat

ion

segm

ent i

s m

ost l

ikel

y th

e la

rges

t con

sum

er o

f na

tura

l gas

pur

chas

ed a

t the

New

Eng

land

nat

ural

gas

pric

e in

dex,

this

seg

men

t w

as th

e fo

cus

of th

e an

alys

is

Bas

ed o

n th

e hi

stor

ical

rela

tions

hip

betw

een

natu

ral g

as p

rices

and

ele

ctric

ity

LMP

s in

ISO

-NE

, Sus

sex

calc

ulat

ed th

e po

tent

ial r

educ

tion

in L

MP

s as

a re

sult

of a

redu

ctio

n in

who

lesa

le n

atur

al g

as p

rices

to e

stim

ate

the

pote

ntia

l ene

rgy

cost

sav

ings

to e

lect

ricity

cus

tom

ers

usin

g ac

tual

dat

a fo

r the

201

2/20

13 s

plit-

year

Th

e be

nefit

(i.e

., re

duce

d na

tura

l gas

cos

ts) a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith a

ny in

crem

enta

l pi

pelin

e ex

pans

ion

was

com

pare

d to

var

ious

cos

t est

imat

es (i

.e.,

cost

of

pipe

line

capa

city

)

42

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 43 of 65

000378

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: O

verv

iew

Th

e fir

st s

tep

in th

e an

alys

is (i

.e.,

the

bene

fits

of in

crem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty

into

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on) c

onsi

sted

of:

N

atur

al G

as B

asis

/ C

apac

ity U

tiliz

atio

n A

naly

sis:

An

estim

ate

of th

e po

tent

ial r

educ

tion

in th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as b

asis

diff

eren

tials

sho

uld

new

infra

stru

ctur

e be

de

velo

ped

R

educ

tion

in N

atur

al G

as P

rices

: The

ass

umed

New

Eng

land

nat

ural

gas

bas

is re

duct

ion

was

use

d to

est

imat

e th

e re

duct

ion

in th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd w

hole

sale

pric

e of

nat

ural

gas

R

educ

tion

in L

MP

s: T

he re

sulti

ng e

stim

ated

New

Eng

land

nat

ural

gas

who

lesa

le p

rice

redu

ctio

n w

ould

like

ly re

sult

in lo

wer

LM

Ps

in th

e IS

O-N

E p

ower

mar

ket,

whi

ch w

ould

be

nefit

ele

ctric

ity c

usto

mer

s in

the

regi

on, i

nclu

ding

cus

tom

ers

in M

aine

•S

ince

nat

ural

gas

-fire

d ge

nera

tion

is s

ettin

g th

e IS

O-N

E L

MP

s fo

r the

maj

ority

of t

he h

ours

, thi

s re

duct

ion

in L

MP

s w

ould

pro

vide

a b

enef

it to

ele

ctric

ity c

usto

mer

s

•P

leas

e no

te, t

he h

ours

whe

n na

tura

l gas

fuel

ed g

ener

atio

n se

t the

LM

P w

as b

ased

on

info

rmat

ion

avai

labl

e fro

m IS

O-N

E a

nd c

erta

in d

ispa

tch

orde

r ass

umpt

ions

43

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 44 of 65

000379

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: N

atur

al G

as B

asis

/ C

apac

ity U

tiliz

atio

n A

naly

sis

In

ord

er to

est

imat

e th

e po

tent

ial r

educ

tion

in th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as

basi

s di

ffere

ntia

ls a

s a

resu

lt of

incr

emen

tal p

ipel

ine

capa

city

into

the

regi

on,

Sus

sex

anal

yzed

the

hist

oric

al d

aily

New

Eng

land

nat

ural

gas

bas

is d

iffer

entia

ls

and

pipe

line

capa

city

util

izat

ion

from

Jan

uary

1, 2

011

to D

ecem

ber 1

7, 2

013,

sp

ecifi

cally

:

Sus

sex

calc

ulat

ed th

e hi

stor

ical

dai

ly n

atur

al g

as b

asis

diff

eren

tials

bet

wee

n th

e N

ew

Eng

land

nat

ural

gas

pric

e in

dex,

as

repr

esen

ted

by A

LGC

G, a

nd H

enry

Hub

•A

naly

sis

excl

uded

wee

kend

s, h

olid

ays,

and

day

s w

hen

the

ALG

CG

to H

enry

Hub

bas

is d

iffer

entia

l w

as z

ero

or n

egat

ive

Fo

r eac

h an

alys

is d

ay, S

usse

x re

view

ed th

e pi

pelin

e flo

ws

on A

GT

and

estim

ated

the

AG

T w

est-t

o-ea

st fl

ows

(i.e.

, AG

T W

est-e

nd U

tiliz

atio

n)

Ple

ase

note

, the

ana

lysi

s of

AG

T ca

paci

ty u

tiliz

atio

n is

ass

umed

to b

e a

prox

y fo

r the

cu

rren

t New

Eng

land

pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty u

tiliz

atio

n fro

m th

e S

outh

and

Wes

t (i.e

., A

GT

and

TGP)

Not

e: A

ll na

tura

l gas

pric

ing

and

pipe

line

flow

s da

ta fr

om S

NL

Fina

ncia

l44

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 45 of 65

000380

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: N

atur

al G

as B

asis

/ C

apac

ity U

tiliz

atio

n A

naly

sis

(con

t.)

A

s th

e A

GT

Wes

t-end

Util

izat

ion

reac

hes

80%

or h

ighe

r, th

e ch

ance

s of

si

gnifi

cant

bas

is p

rem

ium

s gr

eatly

incr

ease

s

Sou

rce:

His

toric

al p

rices

thro

ugh

Dec

embe

r 17,

201

3 fro

m S

NL

Fina

ncia

l45

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 46 of 65

000381

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: N

atur

al G

as B

asis

/ C

apac

ity U

tiliz

atio

n A

naly

sis

(con

t.)

A

t a u

tiliz

atio

n gr

eate

r tha

n or

equ

al to

95%

, the

ave

rage

bas

is d

iffer

entia

l be

twee

n A

LGC

G a

nd H

enry

Hub

is a

ppro

xim

atel

y $8

.25,

whi

ch is

mor

e th

an

doub

le th

e ba

sis

diffe

rent

ial f

rom

the

90%

to 9

5% u

tiliz

atio

n se

gmen

t of $

3.77

Th

e st

anda

rd d

evia

tion

at th

e ut

ilizat

ion

segm

ents

gre

ater

than

90%

indi

cate

s a

high

deg

ree

of v

olat

ility

Th

e av

erag

e ba

sis

diffe

rent

ial a

ppro

xim

atel

y do

uble

s as

util

izat

ion

incr

ease

s th

roug

h th

e hi

ghes

t thr

ee u

tiliz

atio

n se

gmen

ts

ALG

CG

-Hen

ry H

ub ($

/MM

Btu

) Bas

is D

iffer

entia

l (Ja

nuar

y 1,

2011

–D

ecem

ber 1

7, 2

013)

AG

T W

est-e

nd U

tiliz

atio

n#

of

Obs

.A

vg.

Med

ian

Min

.M

ax.

Std.

D

ev.

Gre

ater

than

or e

qual

to 9

5%41

8.25

6.09

0.41

27.8

17.

37Be

twee

n 90

% a

nd 9

5%12

53.

771.

760.

0930

.70

5.54

Betw

een

85%

and

90%

141

1.46

0.80

0.12

14.5

71.

98Be

twee

n 80

% a

nd 8

5%15

50.

810.

540.

005.

130.

91B

etw

een

75%

and

80%

800.

620.

330.

006.

971.

11Be

twee

n 70

% a

nd 7

5%61

0.62

0.30

0.00

4.36

0.89

Betw

een

65%

and

70%

420.

730.

340.

025.

691.

14Be

twee

n 60

% a

nd 6

5%25

0.52

0.33

0.15

2.25

0.49

46

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 47 of 65

000382

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: R

educ

tion

in N

atur

al G

as P

rices

To

est

imat

e th

e ef

fect

of i

ncre

men

tal p

ipel

ine

capa

city

on

New

Eng

land

w

hole

sale

nat

ural

gas

pric

es, S

usse

x re

view

ed a

rang

e of

bas

is d

iffer

entia

l re

duct

ions

bas

ed o

n th

e re

sults

of t

he N

atur

al G

as B

asis

/ C

apac

ity U

tiliz

atio

n A

naly

sis

disc

usse

d ab

ove,

as

wel

l as

a re

view

of t

he fo

llow

ing

case

stu

dies

:

Forw

ard

natu

ral g

as b

asis

diff

eren

tials

for t

he N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

Fo

rwar

d na

tura

l gas

bas

is d

iffer

entia

ls fo

r the

New

Yor

k C

ity re

gion

47

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 48 of 65

000383

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: A

LGC

G F

orw

ard

Pric

es

Th

e S

pect

ra E

nerg

y A

IM a

nd T

GP

Con

nect

icut

Exp

ansi

on p

roje

cts

are

expe

cted

to c

ome

on-li

ne o

n N

ovem

ber 1

, 201

6

Pro

vide

s in

crem

enta

l cap

acity

of 3

42,0

00 D

th/d

ay (S

pect

ra E

nerg

y) a

nd 7

2,10

0 D

th/d

ay (T

GP

) to

serv

e th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd L

DC

s

S

pect

ra A

IM S

hipp

ers:

10

LDC

s in

MA

, RI a

nd C

T (i.

e., N

STA

R G

as, C

olon

ial G

as, B

osto

n G

as,

Col

umbi

a G

as o

f Mas

sach

uset

ts, M

iddl

ebor

ough

Gas

& E

lect

ric, T

he N

arra

gans

ett E

lect

ric C

ompa

ny,

Nor

wic

h P

ublic

Util

ities

, Yan

kee

Gas

, Con

nect

icut

Nat

ural

Gas

, and

Sou

ther

n C

onne

ctic

ut G

as);

and

TGP

Con

nect

icut

Exp

ansi

on s

hipp

ers:

Con

nect

icut

Nat

ural

Gas

and

Yan

kee

Gas

S

ince

the

capa

city

ass

ocia

ted

with

the

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

AIM

and

TG

P C

onne

ctic

ut E

xpan

sion

pro

ject

s ar

e su

ppor

ted

by n

atur

al g

as u

tiliti

es (i

.e.,

LDC

fore

cast

ed g

row

th w

ill re

quire

the

AIM

and

Con

nect

icut

E

xpan

sion

cap

acity

), th

e av

aila

bilit

y of

the

AIM

and

Con

nect

icut

Exp

ansi

on c

apac

ity fo

r use

by

othe

r m

arke

t seg

men

ts (e

.g.,

pow

er g

ener

atio

n) w

ill lik

ely

decr

ease

ove

r tim

e

A

s sh

own

in th

e ta

ble

belo

w, th

e A

LGC

G to

Hen

ry H

ub fo

rwar

d ba

sis

for 2

016/

2017

is

appr

oxim

atel

y 30

% to

32%

low

er th

an th

e fo

rwar

d ba

sis

for 2

014/

2015

. W

hile

ther

e m

ay b

e se

vera

l mar

ket a

nd c

omm

erci

al is

sues

ass

ocia

ted

with

this

redu

ctio

n in

forw

ard

pric

es, t

he

expe

cted

incr

emen

tal c

apac

ity a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith th

e S

pect

ra E

nerg

y A

IM a

nd T

GP

Con

nect

icut

Exp

ansi

on p

roje

cts

in 2

016/

2017

are

like

ly k

ey c

ontri

buto

rs to

this

bas

is

redu

ctio

nSp

lit-Y

ear

(Nov

-Oct

)

Forw

ard

ALG

CG

-Hen

ry H

ub B

asis

($/M

MB

tu)

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Nov

embe

r to

Ja

nuar

y20

14/2

015

3.68

8.16

12.0

67.

97

2015

/201

63.

447.

5211

.34

7.43

2016

/201

72.

555.

528.

195.

42

Perc

ent C

hang

e 20

14/2

015

to 2

016/

2017

(30.

7%)

(32.

4%)

(32.

1%)

(32.

0%)

Sou

rce:

For

war

d se

ttlem

ent p

rices

as

of J

anua

ry 2

, 201

4 fro

m B

loom

berg

Pro

fess

iona

l48

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 49 of 65

000384

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: N

YC

Cas

e S

tudy

Th

e S

pect

ra E

nerg

y N

J-N

Y E

xpan

sion

and

Tra

nsco

Nor

thea

st S

uppl

y Li

nk[1

]pr

ojec

ts w

ere

plac

ed in

ser

vice

on

Nov

embe

r 1, 2

013:

P

rovi

ded

incr

emen

tal c

apac

ity o

f 800

,000

Dth

/day

(Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy)

and

250

,000

Dth

/day

(Tra

nsco

) to

serv

e th

e N

ew J

erse

y an

d N

ew Y

ork

City

met

ropo

litan

are

as

A

s sh

own

in th

e ta

ble

belo

w, w

hich

refle

cts

the

mar

ket e

xpec

tatio

ns b

efor

e th

is w

inte

r, th

e Tr

ansc

o Zo

ne 6

New

Yor

k (“

TRZ6

NY

”) to

Hen

ry H

ub fo

rwar

d w

inte

r 201

3/20

14 b

asis

of

$0.6

8/M

MB

tu is

an

appr

oxim

atel

y 64

% re

duct

ion

from

the

hist

oric

al w

inte

r 200

8/20

09 to

20

12/2

013

aver

age

of $

1.88

/MM

Btu

and

a 7

8% re

duct

ion

from

the

2012

/201

3 w

inte

r bas

is

of $

3.04

/MM

Btu

W

hile

ther

e m

ay b

e se

vera

l mar

ket a

nd c

omm

erci

al is

sues

ass

ocia

ted

with

this

redu

ctio

n in

fo

rwar

d pr

ices

, the

incr

emen

tal p

ipel

ine

capa

city

ass

ocia

ted

with

the

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

NJ-

NY

Exp

ansi

on a

nd T

rans

co N

orth

east

Sup

ply

Link

pro

ject

s w

ere

likel

y ke

y co

ntrib

utor

s to

this

pr

ice

redu

ctio

n

Split

-Yea

r (N

ov-O

ct)

TRZ6

NY-

Hen

ry H

ub B

asis

($/M

MB

tu)

Win

ter

(Nov

-Mar

)Su

mm

er

(Apr

-Oct

)An

nual

(N

ov-O

ct)

2008

/200

91.

810.

380.

9720

09/2

010

1.22

0.35

0.71

2010

/201

12.

750.

491.

4320

11/2

012

0.59

0.19

0.36

2012

/201

33.

040.

201.

37H

isto

rical

Ave

rage

(2

008/

2009

-201

2/20

13)

1.88

0.32

0.97

2013

/201

40.

68(0

.52)

(0.0

2)20

14/2

015

0.42

(0.5

3)(0

.13)

2015

/201

60.

39(0

.45)

(0.1

0)Fo

rwar

d A

vera

ge

(201

3/20

14-2

015/

2016

)0.

50(0

.50)

(0.0

9)

Not

e: [1

] Hal

f of t

he T

rans

co N

orth

east

Sup

ply

Link

cap

acity

was

pla

ced

in s

ervi

ce in

Aug

ust 2

013,

with

the

rem

aind

er p

lace

d in

ser

vice

on

Nov

embe

r 1, 2

013

Sou

rce:

His

toric

al p

rices

from

SN

L Fi

nanc

ial;

and

forw

ard

settl

emen

t pric

es a

s of

Oct

ober

31,

201

3 fro

m B

loom

berg

Pro

fess

iona

l49

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 50 of 65

000385

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: M

aine

Ene

rgy

Cos

ts

S

ince

the

bene

fit a

naly

sis

is b

ased

on

actu

al d

ata

for 2

012/

2013

, a c

ompa

rison

to th

e pr

evio

us tw

o ye

ars

was

dev

elop

ed to

pro

vide

con

text

. Ene

rgy

cost

s in

Mai

ne w

ere

appr

oxim

atel

y 15

.6%

hig

her i

n 20

12/2

013

rela

tive

to 2

010/

2011

and

56.

8% h

ighe

r tha

n 20

11/2

012.

Win

ter (

i.e.,

Nov

-Mar

) ene

rgy

cost

s in

Mai

ne

repr

esen

ted

over

50%

of t

otal

ann

ual e

nerg

y co

sts

in 2

010/

2011

and

201

2/20

13En

ergy

Cos

ts –

Mai

neD

iffer

ence

bet

wee

n Ye

ars

Mon

th20

10/2

011

2011

/201

220

12/2

013

2012

/13

–20

10/1

120

12/1

3 –

2011

/12

Nov

embe

r$4

0,60

9,61

4$3

1,87

8,37

4$5

0,82

9,24

1$1

0,21

9,62

6$1

8,95

0,86

7D

ecem

ber

$66,

302,

025

$34,

717,

061

$46,

639,

723

$(19

,662

,301

)$1

1,92

2,66

3Ja

nuar

y$7

7,37

1,63

7$4

1,05

2,68

6$8

9,98

5,23

9$1

2,61

3,60

3$4

8,93

2,55

3Fe

brua

ry$5

1,27

2,66

4$2

7,65

1,59

3$1

09,2

98,9

30$5

8,02

6,26

6$8

1,64

7,33

7M

arch

$44,

311,

891

$25,

866,

951

$49,

261,

297

$4,9

49,4

07$2

3,39

4,34

7Ap

ril$3

7,61

5,87

8$2

2,50

7,59

9 $4

1,16

7,54

7$3

,551

,669

$18,

659,

948

May

$37,

463,

657

$24,

766,

656

$36,

080,

804

$(1,

382,

853)

$11,

314,

147

June

$38,

410,

421

$32,

416,

880

$33,

078,

194

$(5,

332,

227)

$661

,314

July

$58,

901,

699

$44,

421,

662

$55,

987,

099

$(2,

914,

600)

$11,

565,

437

Augu

st$4

3,46

1,97

2$4

2,04

7,94

3$3

5,00

4,81

6$(

8,45

7,15

7)$(

7,04

3,12

8)Se

ptem

ber

$36,

222,

451

$31,

307,

683

$33,

025,

659

$(3,

196,

792)

$1,7

17,9

76O

ctob

er$3

8,47

4,40

2$3

1,97

3,14

3$3

2,29

1,42

4$(

6,18

2,97

9)$3

18,2

81To

tal S

plit-

Year

$570

,418

,311

$390

,608

,231

$612

,649

,973

$42,

231,

662

$222

,041

,741

Nov

–M

ar$2

79,8

67,8

30$1

61,1

66,6

64$3

46,0

14,4

31$6

6,14

6,60

0$1

84,8

47,7

66D

ec –

Feb

$194

,946

,325

$103

,421

,340

$245

,923

,892

$50,

977,

568

$142

,502

,553

<(75

%)

(50%

) -(7

5%)

(25%

) –(5

0%)

(10%

)–(2

5%)

(10%

) –10

%10

% -

25%

25%

-50

%50

% -

75%

>75%

Diff

eren

ce b

etw

een

Nor

mal

Yea

r HD

D (i

n w

inte

r mon

ths)

or C

DD

(in

sum

mer

mon

ths)

and

Act

ual H

DD

and

CD

D

Wea

ther

–A

ctua

lsD

iffer

ence

from

Nor

mal

Yea

rEn

ergy

Cos

tsSp

lit-Y

ear

HD

DC

DD

HD

DC

DD

Mai

ne20

10/2

011

5,59

398

1-7

424

0$5

70,4

18,3

1120

11/2

012

4,52

488

0-1

,174

139

$390

,608

,231

2012

/201

35,

448

896

-219

155

$612

,649

,973

Not

e: N

orm

al Y

ear =

30-

Year

A

vera

ge fr

om 1

981-

2010

Sou

rce:

ISO

New

Eng

land

, 201

0-20

13 S

MD

Hou

rly D

ata

50

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 51 of 65

000386

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: IS

O-N

E E

nerg

y C

osts

S

imila

r to

the

Mai

ne m

arke

t, a

revi

ew o

f the

last

thre

e ye

ars

of IS

O-N

E e

nerg

y co

sts

was

dev

elop

ed fo

r co

ntex

t. E

nerg

y co

sts

in IS

O-N

E w

ere

appr

oxim

atel

y 15

.9%

hig

her i

n 20

12/2

013

rela

tive

to 2

010/

2011

and

59

.5%

hig

her t

han

2011

/201

2. W

inte

r (i.e

., N

ov-M

ar) e

nerg

y co

sts

in IS

O-N

E re

pres

ente

d ap

prox

imat

ely

50%

of a

nnua

l ene

rgy

cost

s in

201

0/20

11 a

nd 2

012/

2013

Ener

gy C

osts

–IS

O-N

ED

iffer

ence

bet

wee

n Ye

ars

Mon

th20

10/2

011

2011

/201

220

12/2

013

2012

/13

–20

10/1

120

12/1

3 –

2011

/12

Nov

embe

r$4

47,6

42,3

70

$361

,138

,517

$5

66,7

47,9

47

$119

,105

,577

$2

05,6

09,4

30

Dec

embe

r$7

70,2

61,6

50

$395

,102

,819

$5

15,4

45,6

46

$(25

4,81

6,00

4)$1

20,3

42,8

27

Janu

ary

$852

,384

,171

$4

64,6

24,5

30

$1,0

37,7

86,7

16

$185

,402

,545

$5

73,1

62,1

86

Febr

uary

$581

,344

,475

$3

12,7

78,1

90

$1,2

72,8

47,8

70

$691

,503

,395

$9

60,0

69,6

79

Mar

ch$4

92,6

23,8

49

$267

,773

,347

$5

67,6

05,0

26

$74,

981,

177

$299

,831

,679

Ap

ril$4

17,2

54,0

84

$243

,522

,969

$4

06,5

28,2

40

$(10

,725

,844

)$1

63,0

05,2

72

May

$428

,755

,135

$2

65,3

68,0

61

$406

,414

,752

$(

22,3

40,3

83)

$141

,046

,691

Ju

ne$4

91,2

82,0

92

$421

,659

,561

$4

21,7

26,4

19

$(69

,555

,673

)$6

6,85

8 Ju

ly$7

71,9

46,2

93

$569

,821

,544

$7

73,1

14,4

88

$1,1

68,1

95

$203

,292

,944

Au

gust

$537

,252

,420

$5

15,2

17,6

93

$414

,658

,718

$(

122,

593,

702)

$(10

0,55

8,97

6)Se

ptem

ber

$441

,427

,969

$3

28,3

96,6

60

$441

,204

,360

$(

223,

609)

$112

,807

,701

O

ctob

er$4

13,9

89,8

64

$348

,054

,634

$3

40,8

02,7

81

$(73

,187

,083

)$(

7,25

1,85

3)To

tal

$6,6

46,1

64,3

72

$4,4

93,4

58,5

26

$7,1

64,8

82,9

63

$518

,718

,591

$2

,671

,424

,438

N

ov –

Mar

$3,1

44,2

56,5

15

$1,8

01,4

17,4

03

$3,9

60,4

33,2

05

$816

,176

,690

$2

,159

,015

,802

D

ec –

Feb

$2,2

03,9

90,2

95

$1,1

72,5

05,5

39

$2,8

26,0

80,2

31

$622

,089

,936

$1

,653

,574

,692

<(75

%)

(50%

) -(7

5%)

(25%

) –(5

0%)

(10%

)–(2

5%)

(10%

) –10

%10

% -

25%

25%

-50

%50

% -

75%

>75%

Wea

ther

–A

ctua

lsD

iffer

ence

from

Nor

mal

Yea

rEn

ergy

Cos

tsSp

lit-Y

ear

HD

DC

DD

HD

DC

DD

ISO

-NE

2010

/201

15,

593

981

-74

240

$6,6

46,1

64,3

7220

11/2

012

4,52

488

0-1

,174

139

$4,4

93,4

58,5

2620

12/2

013

5,44

889

6-2

1915

5$7

,164

,882

,963

Diff

eren

ce b

etw

een

Nor

mal

Yea

r HD

D (i

n w

inte

r mon

ths)

or C

DD

(in

sum

mer

mon

ths)

and

Act

ual H

DD

and

CD

D

Not

e: N

orm

al Y

ear =

30-

Year

A

vera

ge fr

om 1

981-

2010

Sou

rce:

ISO

New

Eng

land

, 201

0-20

13 S

MD

Hou

rly D

ata

51

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 52 of 65

000387

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: R

educ

tion

in L

MP

s

Fo

r the

201

2/20

13 s

plit-

year

, Sus

sex

estim

ated

the

pote

ntia

l pro

form

a be

nefit

s to

ele

ctric

ity c

usto

mer

s as

soci

ated

with

a re

duct

ion

in L

MP

for h

ours

whe

n na

tura

l gas

-fire

d ge

nera

tion

was

the

mar

gina

l fue

l [1]

Fi

rst,

Sus

sex

estim

ated

the

num

ber o

f hou

rs th

e LM

P in

New

Eng

land

was

set

by

natu

ral

gas-

fired

gen

erat

ors

usin

g w

eekl

y m

argi

nal f

uel t

ype

data

from

ISO

-NE

•A

ssum

ed m

argi

nal f

uel t

ype

data

for I

SO

-NE

as

a w

hole

was

repr

esen

tativ

e of

the

mar

gina

l fue

l for

th

e in

divi

dual

zon

es (e

.g.,

Mai

ne)

•C

onve

rted

the

repo

rted

wee

kly

perc

enta

ges

by fu

el ty

pe to

num

ber o

f hou

rs in

eac

h w

eek

•A

ssum

ed IS

O-N

E fo

llow

ed a

dis

patc

h cu

rve

whe

re o

il-fir

ed g

ener

atio

n se

t the

LM

P fo

r the

hou

rs in

th

e w

eek

with

the

high

est e

lect

ricity

dem

and,

follo

wed

by

natu

ral g

as-fi

red

gene

ratio

n

•U

sing

this

app

roac

h, S

usse

x as

sign

ed a

mar

gina

l fue

l typ

e fo

r eac

h ho

ur o

f eac

h da

y in

spl

it-ye

ar

2012

/201

3

Not

e: [1

] Ple

ase

note

that

the

anal

ysis

is b

ased

on

hist

oric

al d

ata;

resu

lts re

pres

ent t

he p

ro fo

rma

effe

ct re

duct

ion

in b

asis

diff

eren

tials

and

LM

Ps

Sou

rce:

ISO

New

Eng

land

, Wee

kly

Mar

ket R

epor

t Dat

a fo

r the

Wee

k E

ndin

g D

ecem

ber 8

, 201

352

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 53 of 65

000388

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: R

educ

tion

in L

MP

s (c

ont.)

N

ext,

Sus

sex

estim

ated

the

redu

ctio

n in

the

New

Eng

land

who

lesa

le p

rice

of n

atur

al g

as

(as

repr

esen

ted

by th

e A

LGC

G p

rice

inde

x) a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith a

redu

ctio

n in

the

New

E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as p

rice

prem

ium

(i.e

., ba

sis

diffe

rent

ial)

•B

ased

on

the

resu

lts o

f the

Nat

ural

Gas

Bas

is /

Cap

acity

Util

izat

ion

Ana

lysi

s, a

nd a

revi

ew o

f the

A

LGC

G fo

rwar

d pr

ices

and

NY

C C

ase

Stu

dy, S

usse

x an

alyz

ed a

rang

e of

bas

is d

iffer

entia

l re

duct

ions

from

25%

to 7

5%

•Th

e da

ily n

atur

al g

as p

rice

redu

ctio

n w

as e

stim

ated

bas

ed o

n th

e es

timat

ed N

ew E

ngla

nd b

asis

re

duct

ion

rang

e of

25%

to 7

5%.

For e

xam

ple,

if th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd b

asis

diff

eren

tial w

as re

duce

d by

50

% fr

om $

2/M

MB

tu to

$1/

MM

Btu

, the

n th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as p

rice

(as

repr

esen

ted

by th

e A

LGC

G p

rice

inde

x) w

ould

be

redu

ced

from

$4/

MM

Btu

(for

exa

mpl

e) to

$3/

MM

Btu

, whi

ch is

equ

al to

a

natu

ral g

as p

rice

redu

ctio

n of

25%

•B

ased

on

the

Nat

ural

Gas

Bas

is /

Cap

acity

Util

izat

ion

Ana

lysi

s, S

usse

x as

sum

ed th

at a

redu

ctio

n in

na

tura

l gas

pric

es o

ccur

red

only

whe

n A

GT

Wes

t-end

Util

izat

ion

was

gre

ater

than

80%

and

the

New

E

ngla

nd b

asis

diff

eren

tial w

as g

reat

er th

an $

0.25

/MM

Btu

A

t AG

T W

est-e

nd U

tiliz

atio

n le

vels

bel

ow 8

0% a

nd b

asis

diff

eren

tials

low

er th

an $

0.25

/MM

Btu

, th

ere

was

a m

inim

al e

ffect

on

the

tota

l ene

rgy

cost

sav

ings

S

usse

x as

sum

ed th

at th

e re

duct

ion

in L

MP

wou

ld b

e eq

ual t

o th

e ca

lcul

ated

redu

ctio

n in

th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd n

atur

al g

as w

hole

sale

pric

e

For e

ach

hour

that

nat

ural

gas

was

the

mar

gina

l fue

l, S

usse

x es

timat

ed th

e en

ergy

cos

t sa

ving

s fo

r tha

t hou

r by

mul

tiply

ing

the

redu

ctio

n in

LM

P by

the

hour

ly d

eman

d

The

annu

al e

nerg

y co

st s

avin

gs to

ele

ctric

ity c

usto

mer

s w

as th

e su

m o

f the

ene

rgy

cost

sa

ving

s ov

er a

ll ho

urs

that

nat

ural

gas

-fire

d ge

nera

tion

was

set

ting

the

mar

gina

l pric

e of

el

ectri

city

for t

he s

plit-

year

201

2/20

13S

ourc

es: S

NL

Fina

ncia

l; an

d IS

O N

ew E

ngla

nd, 2

012-

2013

SM

D H

ourly

Dat

a53

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 54 of 65

000389

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: R

educ

tion

in L

MP

s –

Sce

nario

Res

ults

S

cena

rio R

esul

ts D

etai

l –B

asis

Red

uctio

n of

30%

–M

aine

:

S

cena

rio R

esul

ts D

etai

l –B

asis

Red

uctio

n of

30%

–IS

O-N

E:

Mon

th

% o

f Hou

rs

Oil

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Gas

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Oth

er

Fuel

s ar

e on

Mar

gin

Tota

l M

onth

ly

Dem

and

in

Mai

ne (M

W)

Aver

age

Mai

ne L

MP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l Mai

ne

Cost

s ($

)

Aver

age

Red

uctio

n in

LM

P(%

)

Ave

rage

R

educ

tion

in

Mai

ne L

MP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l Mai

ne

Cos

ts a

fter

Redu

ctio

n in

LM

P ($

)

Ener

gy C

ost

Sav

ings

for

Mai

ne

Cust

omer

s ($

)N

ov-1

214

%58

%28

%91

7,81

553

.53

$

50,8

29,2

41$

-13%

(4.4

2)$

46,4

88,1

44$

(4,3

41,0

97)

$

Dec

-12

0%65

%35

%99

2,02

045

.80

$

46,6

39,7

23$

-12%

(4.0

7)$

42,2

04,2

31$

(4,4

35,4

92)

$

Jan-

133%

61%

36%

1,02

8,16

583

.63

$

89,9

85,2

39$

-17%

(11.

62)

$

76,8

86,6

80$

(13,

098,

559)

$

Fe

b-13

4%54

%43

%90

7,24

011

6.19

$

109,

298,

930

$

-2

3%(1

7.12

)$

92

,377

,291

$

(1

6,92

1,63

9)$

Mar

-13

0%59

%41

%94

4,90

850

.93

$

49,2

61,2

97$

-11%

(3.6

6)$

45,4

34,2

52$

(3,8

27,0

46)

$

Apr

-13

1%71

%28

%89

3,32

745

.09

$

41,1

67,5

47$

-4%

(1.4

3)$

39,7

71,1

27$

(1,3

96,4

20)

$

May

-13

1%72

%27

%89

8,03

039

.12

$

36,0

80,8

04$

-2%

(0.8

4)$

35,2

37,6

59$

(843

,145

)$

Jun-

130%

63%

37%

916,

942

34.7

7$

33

,078

,194

$

0%

(0.0

4)$

33,0

27,5

06$

(50,

688)

$

Ju

l-13

2%75

%22

%1,

069,

844

48.8

7$

55

,987

,099

$

-4

%(1

.99)

$

53

,565

,653

$

(2

,421

,446

)$

A

ug-1

30%

80%

20%

1,00

9,84

933

.32

$

34,9

94,4

38$

0%(0

.17)

$

34

,791

,547

$

(2

02,8

90)

$

S

ep-1

30%

80%

20%

905,

220

34.9

7$

33

,025

,659

$

0%

-$

33,0

25,6

59$

-$

Oct

-13

0%80

%20

%93

4,29

733

.53

$

32,2

91,4

24$

-2%

(0.5

1)$

31,7

72,7

19$

(518

,704

)$

2012

/201

32%

68%

30%

11,4

17,6

5751

.64

$

612,

639,

595

$

-7

%(3

.82)

$

56

4,58

2,46

8$

(48,

057,

127)

$

Red

uctio

n in

Nat

ural

Gas

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

Mon

th

% o

f Hou

rs

Oil

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Gas

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Oth

er

Fuel

s ar

e on

Mar

gin

Tota

l M

onth

ly

Dem

and

in

ISO

-NE

(MW

)

Aver

age

ISO

-NE

LM

P ($

/MW

h)To

tal I

SO-N

E Co

sts

($)

Aver

age

Red

uctio

n in

LM

P(%

)

Ave

rage

R

educ

tion

in

ISO

-NE

LMP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l ISO

-NE

Cos

ts a

fter

Redu

ctio

n in

LM

P ($

)

Ener

gy C

ost

Sav

ings

for

ISO

-N

E C

usto

mer

s ($

)N

ov-1

214

%58

%28

%9,

929,

622

55.0

4$

56

6,74

7,94

7$

-13%

(4.5

1)$

518,

449,

198

$

(4

8,29

8,74

9)$

Dec

-12

0%65

%35

%10

,825

,697

46.3

0$

51

5,44

5,64

6$

-12%

(4.1

1)$

466,

115,

746

$

(4

9,32

9,90

0)$

Jan-

133%

61%

36%

11,3

30,2

4586

.53

$

1,03

7,78

6,71

6$

-1

7%(1

2.10

)$

88

5,21

4,82

0$

(152

,571

,895

)$

Fe

b-13

4%54

%43

%10

,057

,171

122.

31$

1,

272,

847,

870

$

-23%

(18.

00)

$

1,07

4,53

9,87

1$

(1

98,3

07,9

98)

$

Mar

-13

0%59

%41

%10

,420

,336

53.0

9$

56

7,60

5,02

6$

-11%

(3.8

1)$

523,

150,

231

$

(4

4,45

4,79

5)$

Apr

-13

1%71

%28

%9,

282,

373

42.8

9$

40

6,52

8,24

0$

-4%

(1.3

6)$

392,

373,

467

$

(1

4,15

4,77

3)$

May

-13

1%72

%27

%9,

668,

418

40.3

1$

40

6,41

4,75

2$

-2%

(0.8

8)$

395,

975,

425

$

(1

0,43

9,32

7)$

Jun-

130%

63%

37%

10,7

52,3

0637

.09

$

421,

726,

419

$

0%

(0.0

5)$

420,

981,

758

$

(7

44,6

60)

$

Ju

l-13

2%75

%22

%13

,420

,675

52.0

7$

77

3,11

4,48

8$

-4%

(2.1

6)$

737,

948,

865

$

(3

5,16

5,62

3)$

Aug

-13

0%80

%20

%11

,367

,359

34.7

2$

41

4,65

5,82

8$

0%(0

.18)

$

41

2,16

6,30

1$

(2,4

89,5

27)

$

Sep

-13

0%80

%20

%9,

930,

388

40.4

3$

44

1,20

4,36

0$

0%-

$

44

1,20

4,36

0$

-$

Oct

-13

0%80

%20

%9,

709,

008

33.9

4$

34

0,80

2,78

1$

-2%

(0.5

0)$

335,

558,

393

$

(5

,244

,388

)$

20

12/2

013

2%68

%30

%12

6,69

3,59

853

.72

$

7,16

4,88

0,07

3$

-7

%(3

.97)

$

6,

603,

678,

436

$

(561

,201

,637

)$

Red

uctio

n in

Nat

ural

Gas

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

54

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 55 of 65

000390

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: R

educ

tion

in L

MP

s –

Sce

nario

Res

ults

(con

t.)

S

cena

rio R

esul

ts D

etai

l –B

asis

Red

uctio

n of

50%

–M

aine

:

S

cena

rio R

esul

ts D

etai

l –B

asis

Red

uctio

n of

50%

–IS

O-N

E:

Mon

th

% o

f Hou

rs

Oil

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Gas

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Oth

er

Fuel

s ar

e on

Mar

gin

Tota

l M

onth

ly

Dem

and

in

ISO

-NE

(MW

)

Aver

age

ISO

-NE

LM

P ($

/MW

h)To

tal I

SO-N

E Co

sts

($)

Aver

age

Red

uctio

n in

LM

P(%

)

Ave

rage

R

educ

tion

in

ISO

-NE

LMP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l ISO

-NE

Cos

ts a

fter

Redu

ctio

n in

LM

P ($

)

Ener

gy C

ost

Sav

ings

for

ISO

-N

E C

usto

mer

s ($

)N

ov-1

214

%58

%28

%9,

929,

622

55.0

4$

56

6,74

7,94

7$

-22%

(7.5

2)$

486,

250,

032

$

(8

0,49

7,91

5)$

Dec

-12

0%65

%35

%10

,825

,697

46.3

0$

51

5,44

5,64

6$

-19%

(6.8

6)$

433,

229,

145

$

(8

2,21

6,50

1)$

Jan-

133%

61%

36%

11,3

30,2

4586

.53

$

1,03

7,78

6,71

6$

-2

9%(2

0.16

)$

78

3,50

0,22

3$

(254

,286

,492

)$

Fe

b-13

4%54

%43

%10

,057

,171

122.

31$

1,

272,

847,

870

$

-38%

(30.

00)

$

942,

334,

539

$

(3

30,5

13,3

30)

$

Mar

-13

0%59

%41

%10

,420

,336

53.0

9$

56

7,60

5,02

6$

-18%

(6.3

5)$

493,

513,

701

$

(7

4,09

1,32

5)$

Apr

-13

1%71

%28

%9,

282,

373

42.8

9$

40

6,52

8,24

0$

-7%

(2.2

7)$

382,

936,

952

$

(2

3,59

1,28

9)$

May

-13

1%72

%27

%9,

668,

418

40.3

1$

40

6,41

4,75

2$

-4%

(1.4

7)$

389,

015,

874

$

(1

7,39

8,87

8)$

Jun-

130%

63%

37%

10,7

52,3

0637

.09

$

421,

726,

419

$

0%

(0.0

8)$

420,

485,

318

$

(1

,241

,101

)$

Ju

l-13

2%75

%22

%13

,420

,675

52.0

7$

77

3,11

4,48

8$

-7%

(3.6

0)$

714,

505,

116

$

(5

8,60

9,37

2)$

Aug

-13

0%80

%20

%11

,367

,359

34.7

2$

41

4,65

5,82

8$

-1%

(0.2

9)$

410,

506,

616

$

(4

,149

,211

)$

S

ep-1

30%

80%

20%

9,93

0,38

840

.43

$

441,

204,

360

$

0%

-$

441,

204,

360

$

-

$

O

c t-1

30%

80%

20%

9,70

9,00

833

.94

$

340,

802,

781

$

-3

%(0

.83)

$

33

2,06

2,13

5$

(8,7

40,6

47)

$

2012

/201

32%

68%

30%

126,

693,

598

53.7

2$

7,

164,

880,

073

$

-12%

(6.6

2)$

6,22

9,54

4,01

1$

(9

35,3

36,0

62)

$

Red

uctio

n in

Nat

ural

Gas

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

Mon

th

% o

f Hou

rs

Oil

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Gas

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Oth

er

Fuel

s ar

e on

Mar

gin

Tota

l M

onth

ly

Dem

and

in

Mai

ne (M

W)

Aver

age

Mai

ne L

MP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l Mai

ne

Cost

s ($

)

Aver

age

Red

uctio

n in

LM

P(%

)

Ave

rage

R

educ

tion

in

Mai

ne L

MP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l Mai

ne

Cos

ts a

fter

Redu

ctio

n in

LM

P ($

)

Ener

gy C

ost

Sav

ings

for

Mai

ne

Cust

omer

s ($

)N

ov-1

214

%58

%28

%91

7,81

553

.53

$

50,8

29,2

41$

-22%

(7.3

7)$

43,5

94,0

80$

(7,2

35,1

61)

$

Dec

-12

0%65

%35

%99

2,02

045

.80

$

46,6

39,7

23$

-19%

(6.7

9)$

39,2

47,2

37$

(7,3

92,4

87)

$

Jan-

133%

61%

36%

1,02

8,16

583

.63

$

89,9

85,2

39$

-29%

(19.

37)

$

68,1

54,3

08$

(21,

830,

932)

$

Fe

b-13

4%54

%43

%90

7,24

011

6.19

$

109,

298,

930

$

-3

8%(2

8.53

)$

81

,096

,198

$

(2

8,20

2,73

1)$

Mar

-13

0%59

%41

%94

4,90

850

.93

$

49,2

61,2

97$

-18%

(6.1

0)$

42,8

82,8

88$

(6,3

78,4

09)

$

Apr

-13

1%71

%28

%89

3,32

745

.09

$

41,1

67,5

47$

-7%

(2.3

9)$

38,8

40,1

80$

(2,3

27,3

67)

$

May

-13

1%72

%27

%89

8,03

039

.12

$

36,0

80,8

04$

-4%

(1.4

0)$

34,6

75,5

63$

(1,4

05,2

41)

$

Jun-

130%

63%

37%

916,

942

34.7

7$

33

,078

,194

$

0%

(0.0

7)$

32,9

93,7

14$

(84,

480)

$

Ju

l-13

2%75

%22

%1,

069,

844

48.8

7$

55

,987

,099

$

-7

%(3

.32)

$

51

,951

,355

$

(4

,035

,744

)$

A

ug-1

30%

80%

20%

1,00

9,84

933

.32

$

34,9

94,4

38$

-1%

(0.2

8)$

34,6

56,2

87$

(338

,151

)$

Sep

-13

0%80

%20

%90

5,22

034

.97

$

33,0

25,6

59$

0%-

$

33

,025

,659

$

-

$

O

c t-1

30%

80%

20%

934,

297

33.5

3$

32

,291

,424

$

-3

%(0

.85)

$

31

,426

,916

$

(8

64,5

07)

$

20

12/2

013

2%68

%30

%11

,417

,657

51.6

4$

61

2,63

9,59

5$

-12%

(6.3

7)$

532,

544,

384

$

(8

0,09

5,21

1)$

Red

uctio

n in

Nat

ural

Gas

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

55

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 56 of 65

000391

5. B

enef

its E

stim

atio

n: R

educ

tion

in L

MP

s –

Sce

nario

Res

ults

(con

t.)

S

cena

rio R

esul

ts D

etai

l –B

asis

Red

uctio

n of

70%

–M

aine

:

S

cena

rio R

esul

ts D

etai

l –B

asis

Red

uctio

n of

70%

–IS

O-N

E:

56

Mon

th

% o

f Hou

rs

Oil

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Gas

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Oth

er

Fuel

s ar

e on

Mar

gin

Tota

l M

onth

ly

Dem

and

in

Mai

ne (M

W)

Aver

age

Mai

ne L

MP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l Mai

ne

Cost

s ($

)

Aver

age

Red

uctio

n in

LM

P(%

)

Ave

rage

R

educ

tion

in

Mai

ne L

MP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l Mai

ne

Cos

ts a

fter

Redu

ctio

n in

LM

P ($

)

Ener

gy C

ost

Sav

ings

for

Mai

ne

Cust

omer

s ($

)N

ov-1

214

%58

%28

%91

7,81

553

.53

$

50,8

29,2

41$

-30%

(10.

32)

$

40,7

00,0

15$

(10,

129,

226)

$

D

ec-1

20%

65%

35%

992,

020

45.8

0$

46

,639

,723

$

-2

7%(9

.50)

$

36

,290

,242

$

(1

0,34

9,48

1)$

Jan-

133%

61%

36%

1,02

8,16

583

.63

$

89,9

85,2

39$

-40%

(27.

12)

$

59,4

21,9

35$

(30,

563,

304)

$

Fe

b-13

4%54

%43

%90

7,24

011

6.19

$

109,

298,

930

$

-5

3%(3

9.94

)$

69

,815

,106

$

(3

9,48

3,82

4)$

Mar

-13

0%59

%41

%94

4,90

850

.93

$

49,2

61,2

97$

-25%

(8.5

4)$

40,3

31,5

24$

(8,9

29,7

73)

$

Apr

-13

1%71

%28

%89

3,32

745

.09

$

41,1

67,5

47$

-9%

(3.3

5)$

37,9

09,2

33$

(3,2

58,3

14)

$

May

-13

1%72

%27

%89

8,03

039

.12

$

36,0

80,8

04$

-5%

(1.9

7)$

34,1

13,4

66$

(1,9

67,3

37)

$

Jun-

130%

63%

37%

916,

942

34.7

7$

33

,078

,194

$

0%

(0.1

0)$

32,9

59,9

22$

(118

,272

)$

Jul-1

32%

75%

22%

1,06

9,84

448

.87

$

55,9

87,0

99$

-10%

(4.6

5)$

50,3

37,0

57$

(5,6

50,0

42)

$

Aug

-13

0%80

%20

%1,

009,

849

33.3

2$

34

,994

,438

$

-1

%(0

.39)

$

34

,521

,027

$

(4

73,4

11)

$

S

ep-1

30%

80%

20%

905,

220

34.9

7$

33

,025

,659

$

0%

-$

33,0

25,6

59$

-$

Oc t

-13

0%80

%20

%93

4,29

733

.53

$

32,2

91,4

24$

-4%

(1.2

0)$

31,0

81,1

13$

(1,2

10,3

10)

$

2012

/201

32%

68%

30%

11,4

17,6

5751

.64

$

612,

639,

595

$

-1

7%(8

.92)

$

50

0,50

6,30

0$

(112

,133

,295

)$

Red

uctio

n in

Nat

ural

Gas

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

Mon

th

% o

f Hou

rs

Oil

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Gas

is o

n M

argi

n

% o

f Hou

rs

Oth

er

Fuel

s ar

e on

Mar

gin

Tota

l M

onth

ly

Dem

and

in

ISO

-NE

(MW

)

Aver

age

ISO

-NE

LM

P ($

/MW

h)To

tal I

SO-N

E Co

sts

($)

Aver

age

Red

uctio

n in

LM

P(%

)

Ave

rage

R

educ

tion

in

ISO

-NE

LMP

($/M

Wh)

Tota

l ISO

-NE

Cos

ts a

fter

Redu

ctio

n in

LM

P ($

)

Ener

gy C

ost

Sav

ings

for

ISO

-N

E C

usto

mer

s ($

)N

ov-1

214

%58

%28

%9,

929,

622

55.0

4$

56

6,74

7,94

7$

-30%

(10.

52)

$

454,

050,

866

$

(1

12,6

97,0

81)

$

Dec

-12

0%65

%35

%10

,825

,697

46.3

0$

51

5,44

5,64

6$

-27%

(9.6

0)$

400,

342,

545

$

(1

15,1

03,1

01)

$

Jan-

133%

61%

36%

11,3

30,2

4586

.53

$

1,03

7,78

6,71

6$

-4

0%(2

8.22

)$

68

1,78

5,62

6$

(356

,001

,089

)$

Fe

b-13

4%54

%43

%10

,057

,171

122.

31$

1,

272,

847,

870

$

-53%

(42.

00)

$

810,

129,

207

$

(4

62,7

18,6

62)

$

Mar

-13

0%59

%41

%10

,420

,336

53.0

9$

56

7,60

5,02

6$

-25%

(8.8

9)$

463,

877,

170

$

(1

03,7

27,8

56)

$

Apr

-13

1%71

%28

%9,

282,

373

42.8

9$

40

6,52

8,24

0$

-9%

(3.1

8)$

373,

500,

436

$

(3

3,02

7,80

4)$

May

-13

1%72

%27

%9,

668,

418

40.3

1$

40

6,41

4,75

2$

-5%

(2.0

6)$

382,

056,

322

$

(2

4,35

8,43

0)$

Jun-

130%

63%

37%

10,7

52,3

0637

.09

$

421,

726,

419

$

0%

(0.1

1)$

419,

988,

878

$

(1

,737

,541

)$

Ju

l-13

2%75

%22

%13

,420

,675

52.0

7$

77

3,11

4,48

8$

-10%

(5.0

4)$

691,

061,

367

$

(8

2,05

3,12

1)$

Aug

-13

0%80

%20

%11

,367

,359

34.7

2$

41

4,65

5,82

8$

-1%

(0.4

1)$

408,

846,

932

$

(5

,808

,896

)$

S

ep-1

30%

80%

20%

9,93

0,38

840

.43

$

441,

204,

360

$

0%

-$

441,

204,

360

$

-

$

O

c t-1

30%

80%

20%

9,70

9,00

833

.94

$

340,

802,

781

$

-4

%(1

.16)

$

32

8,56

5,87

6$

(12,

236,

905)

$

20

12/2

013

2%68

%30

%12

6,69

3,59

853

.72

$

7,16

4,88

0,07

3$

-1

7%(9

.27)

$

5,

855,

409,

587

$

(1,3

09,4

70,4

86)

$

Red

uctio

n in

Nat

ural

Gas

Pri

ce P

rem

ium

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 57 of 65

000392

5. E

stim

ated

Cos

t Ran

ge: P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

S

usse

x de

velo

ped

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

for a

rang

e of

incr

emen

tal p

ipel

ine

capa

city

(i.e

., 35

0,00

0 D

th/d

ay, 7

00,0

00 D

th/d

ay a

nd 1

,000

,000

Dth

/day

) bas

ed

on ra

tes

rang

ing

from

$1.

00 to

$2.

00 p

er d

aily

MD

Q

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(350

,000

Dth

)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

035

0,00

0$1

27,7

50,0

00

$1.1

035

0,00

0$1

40,5

25,0

00

$1.2

035

0,00

0$1

53,3

00,0

00

$1.3

035

0,00

0$1

66,0

75,0

00

$1.4

035

0,00

0$1

78,8

50,0

00

$1.5

035

0,00

0$1

91,6

25,0

00

$1.6

035

0,00

0$2

04,4

00,0

00

$1.7

035

0,00

0$2

17,1

75,0

00

$1.8

035

0,00

0$2

29,9

50,0

00

$1.9

035

0,00

0$2

42,7

25,0

00

$2.0

035

0,00

0$2

55,5

00,0

00

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(700

,000

Dth

)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

070

0,00

0$2

55,5

00,0

00

$1.1

070

0,00

0$2

81,0

50,0

00

$1.2

070

0,00

0$3

06,6

00,0

00

$1.3

070

0,00

0$3

32,1

50,0

00

$1.4

070

0,00

0$3

57,7

00,0

00

$1.5

070

0,00

0$3

83,2

50,0

00

$1.6

070

0,00

0$4

08,8

00,0

00

$1.7

070

0,00

0$4

34,3

50,0

00

$1.8

070

0,00

0$4

59,9

00,0

00

$1.9

070

0,00

0$4

85,4

50,0

00

$2.0

070

0,00

0$5

11,0

00,0

00

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(1,0

00,0

00 D

th)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

01,

000,

000

$365

,000

,000

$1.1

01,

000,

000

$401

,500

,000

$1.2

01,

000,

000

$438

,000

,000

$1.3

01,

000,

000

$474

,500

,000

$1.4

01,

000,

000

$511

,000

,000

$1.5

01,

000,

000

$547

,500

,000

$1.6

01,

000,

000

$584

,000

,000

$1.7

01,

000,

000

$620

,500

,000

$1.8

01,

000,

000

$657

,000

,000

$1.9

01,

000,

000

$693

,500

,000

$2.0

01,

000,

000

$730

,000

,000

57

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 58 of 65

000393

5. C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: A

naly

tical

Est

imat

es –

New

Eng

land

U

sing

the

estim

ated

bas

is re

duct

ion

asso

ciat

ed w

ith p

oten

tial p

ipel

ine

infra

stru

ctur

e ad

ditio

ns, a

s di

scus

sed

on p

revi

ous

slid

es, S

usse

x de

velo

ped

a ba

sis

redu

ctio

n ta

ble

rang

ing

from

25%

to

75%

(i.e

., E

stim

ated

Ben

efits

); si

mila

rly, S

usse

x us

ed th

e co

st o

f pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty ta

ble

prev

ious

ly d

iscu

ssed

, whi

ch in

clud

ed ra

tes

rang

ing

from

$1.

00 to

$2.

00 p

er d

aily

MD

Q (i

.e.,

Cos

t A

ssum

ptio

ns)

A

s sh

own

belo

w, a

40%

bas

is re

duct

ion

wou

ld o

ffset

a 1

,000

,000

Dth

/day

of i

ncre

men

tal

pipe

line

capa

city

at a

$2.

00/D

th d

aily

rate

A

t a $

1.50

/Dth

dai

ly ra

te, t

he e

stim

ated

ben

efit

over

ann

ual c

ost i

s ap

prox

imat

ely

$200

,000

,000

Estim

ated

Ben

efits

Bas

is R

educ

tion

of:

Annu

al E

nerg

y C

ost S

avin

gs fo

r M

aine

Cus

tom

ers

($)

Annu

al E

nerg

y C

ost S

avin

gs fo

r IS

O-N

E C

usto

mer

s ($

)25

%$4

0,04

7,60

5$4

67,6

68,0

31

30%

$48,

057,

127

$561

,201

,637

35%

$56,

066,

648

$654

,735

,243

40%

$64,

076,

169

$748

,268

,849

45%

$72,

085,

690

$841

,802

,455

50%

$80,

095,

211

$935

,336

,062

55%

$88,

104,

732

$1,0

28,8

69,6

68

60%

$96,

114,

253

$1,1

22,4

03,2

74

65%

$104

,123

,774

$1,2

15,9

36,8

80

70%

$112

,133

,295

$1,3

09,4

70,4

86

75%

$120

,142

,816

$1,4

03,0

04,0

92

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(1,0

00,0

00 D

th)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

01,

000,

000

$365

,000

,000

$1.1

01,

000,

000

$401

,500

,000

$1.2

01,

000,

000

$438

,000

,000

$1.3

01,

000,

000

$474

,500

,000

$1.4

01,

000,

000

$511

,000

,000

$1.5

01,

000,

000

$547

,500

,000

$1.6

01,

000,

000

$584

,000

,000

$1.7

01,

000,

000

$620

,500

,000

$1.8

01,

000,

000

$657

,000

,000

$1.9

01,

000,

000

$693

,500

,000

$2.0

01,

000,

000

$730

,000

,000

58

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 59 of 65

000394

5. C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: A

naly

tical

Est

imat

es –

Mai

ne

Estim

ated

Ben

efits

Bas

is

Red

uctio

n of

:

Annu

al E

nerg

y C

ost S

avin

gs fo

r M

aine

Cus

tom

ers

($)

25%

$40,

047,

605

30%

$48,

057,

127

35%

$56,

066,

648

40%

$64,

076,

169

45%

$72,

085,

690

50%

$80,

095,

211

55%

$88,

104,

732

60%

$96,

114,

253

65%

$104

,123

,774

70%

$112

,133

,295

75%

$120

,142

,816

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(200

,000

Dth

)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

020

0,00

0$7

3,00

0,00

0$1

.10

200,

000

$80,

300,

000

$1.2

020

0,00

0$8

7,60

0,00

0

$1.3

020

0,00

0$9

4,90

0,00

0

$1.4

020

0,00

0$1

02,2

00,0

00

$1.5

020

0,00

0$1

09,5

00,0

00

$1.6

020

0,00

0$1

16,8

00,0

00

$1.7

020

0,00

0$1

24,1

00,0

00

$1.8

020

0,00

0$1

31,4

00,0

00

$1.9

020

0,00

0$1

38,7

00,0

00

$2.0

020

0,00

0$1

46,0

00,0

00

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

(50,

000

Dth

)

Rat

e($

/Dth

)C

apac

ity (D

th)

Annu

al C

ost

($)

$1.0

050

,000

$18,

250,

000

$1.1

050

,000

$20,

075,

000

$1.2

050

,000

$21,

900,

000

$1.3

050

,000

$23,

725,

000

$1.4

050

,000

$25,

550,

000

$1.5

050

,000

$27,

375,

000

$1.6

050

,000

$29,

200,

000

$1.7

050

,000

$31,

025,

000

$1.8

050

,000

$32,

850,

000

$1.9

050

,000

$34,

675,

000

$2.0

050

,000

$36,

500,

000

M

aine

cou

ld a

ct in

depe

nden

tly to

con

tract

for i

ncre

men

tal c

apac

ity to

Mai

ne, o

r ups

tream

of

Mai

ne

•S

usse

x re

view

ed tw

o sc

enar

ios:

(i) 5

0,00

0 D

th/d

ay; a

nd (i

i) 20

0,00

0 D

th/d

ay

•P

leas

e no

te th

at th

e ca

paci

ty a

mou

nts

(e.g

., 50

,000

Dth

/day

and

200

,000

Dth

/day

) may

be

part

of a

larg

er c

apac

ity a

dditi

on

•A

t a 4

0% b

asis

redu

ctio

n sc

enar

io (i

.e.,

Est

imat

ed B

enef

its),

the

Sta

te o

f Mai

ne w

ould

nee

d to

pay

less

than

$1.

00/D

th p

er d

ay fo

r pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty (i

.e.,

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

for 2

00,0

00

Dth

/day

of c

apac

ity);

conv

erse

ly, a

t the

low

er v

olum

e le

vel (

i.e.,

Cos

t Ass

umpt

ions

for

50,0

00 D

th) t

he S

tate

of M

aine

cou

ld p

ay a

bove

$2.

00/D

th fo

r cap

acity

59

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 60 of 65

000395

5. C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: S

umm

ary

Th

e in

trodu

ctio

n of

new

pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty in

to a

con

stra

ined

regi

on w

ill re

duce

th

e ba

sis

diffe

rent

ial b

etw

een

that

regi

on a

nd th

e H

enry

Hub

nat

ural

gas

pric

e in

dex

S

usse

x co

nsid

ered

two

case

s to

est

imat

e th

e po

tent

ial b

asis

redu

ctio

n as

soci

ated

with

incr

emen

tal p

ipel

ine

capa

city

into

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on:

1.Th

e ex

pect

ed a

dditi

on o

f the

Spe

ctra

Ene

rgy

AIM

Pro

ject

(342

,000

Dth

/day

) and

the

TGP

Con

nect

icut

Exp

ansi

on (7

2,00

0 D

th/d

ay) t

o th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

in N

ovem

ber

2016

cor

resp

onde

d w

ith a

forw

ard

natu

ral g

as p

rice

redu

ctio

n of

app

roxi

mat

ely

35%

2.Th

e ad

ditio

n of

ove

r 1,0

00,0

00 D

th/d

ay o

f pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty in

to th

e N

ew Y

ork

City

re

gion

cor

resp

onde

d w

ith a

65%

to 7

0% re

duct

ion

in fo

rwar

d na

tura

l gas

pric

es

Whi

le o

ther

var

iabl

es m

ay a

ffect

the

basi

s, in

crem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty is

the

prin

cipa

l fac

tor

B

ecau

se it

is d

iffic

ult t

o id

entif

y al

l var

iabl

es a

ffect

ing

the

basi

s an

d gi

ven

that

qu

antif

ying

the

rela

tions

hip

betw

een

thos

e va

riabl

es a

nd th

e ba

sis

wou

ld re

quire

su

bsta

ntia

l jud

gmen

t and

like

ly b

e su

bjec

t to

estim

atio

n, S

usse

x be

lieve

s th

at

the

case

stu

dy m

etho

d is

a re

ason

able

app

roac

h

The

appl

icat

ion

of th

e tw

o ca

ses

to th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

ther

efor

e as

sum

es

that

all

varia

bles

affe

ctin

g th

e ba

sis

redu

ctio

n, b

ut fo

r inc

rem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty, r

emai

n co

nsta

nt, a

nd th

at b

oth

case

s ca

n be

app

lied

to th

e N

ew

Engl

and

regi

on

60

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 61 of 65

000396

5. C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: S

umm

ary

–R

egio

nal C

apac

ity A

dditi

on

U

sing

the

two

case

s to

info

rm a

cos

t (ne

w p

ipel

ine

infra

stru

ctur

e) /

bene

fit

(low

er e

lect

ricity

cos

ts) a

naly

sis

prov

ides

the

follo

win

g:

If th

e fo

cus

is th

e N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

:•

A 40

0,00

0 D

th/d

ay p

ipel

ine

capa

city

add

ition

into

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on a

t a d

aily

cos

t of

$1.5

0/D

th (t

he m

id-p

oint

of t

he c

ost r

ange

revi

ewed

) res

ults

in a

n an

nual

cos

t of $

219

milli

on;

assu

min

g th

e ne

w c

apac

ity a

dditi

on re

duce

s th

e na

tura

l gas

pric

e in

dex

by 3

5% a

nd th

eref

ore,

the

ISO

-NE

LM

Ps

whe

n na

tura

l gas

-fire

d ge

nera

tion

is o

n th

e m

argi

n, m

ay re

duce

ele

ctric

ity c

osts

by

$655

milli

on, w

hich

yie

lds

an o

vera

ll an

nual

ben

efit

of $

436

milli

on (i

.e.,

$655

milli

on -

$219

milli

on)

•A

1,00

0,00

0 D

th/d

ay p

ipel

ine

capa

city

add

ition

into

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on a

t a d

aily

rate

of

$1.5

0/D

th (t

he m

id-p

oint

of t

he c

ost e

stim

ate

rang

e re

view

ed) r

esul

ts in

an

annu

al c

ost o

f $54

8 m

illion

; ass

umin

g th

e ne

w c

apac

ity a

dditi

on re

duce

s th

e na

tura

l gas

pric

e in

dex

by 6

5% a

nd

ther

efor

e th

e LM

Ps,

ele

ctric

ity c

osts

may

be

redu

ced

by $

1.2

billio

n, w

hich

yie

lds

an o

vera

ll an

nual

be

nefit

of $

652

milli

on (i

.e.,

$1.2

billi

on -

$548

milli

on)

If

the

focu

s is

the

Mai

ne re

gion

, ass

umin

g M

aine

’s c

apac

ity a

dditi

ons

are

part

of a

larg

er,

regi

onal

cap

acity

add

ition

:•

A 50

,000

Dth

/day

cap

acity

add

ition

at a

dai

ly ra

te o

f $1.

50/D

th w

ould

resu

lt in

an

annu

al c

ost o

f ap

prox

imat

ely

$27

milli

on; a

ssum

ing

a 35

% re

duct

ion

in M

aine

LM

Ps

wou

ld re

sult

in a

$56

milli

on

elec

trici

ty c

ost s

avin

gs –

an o

vera

ll be

nefit

of $

29 m

illion

•A

200,

000

Dth

/day

cap

acity

add

ition

at a

dai

ly ra

te o

f $1.

50/D

th w

ould

resu

lt in

an

annu

al c

ost o

f $1

10 m

illion

; ass

umin

g a

65%

redu

ctio

n in

Mai

ne L

MP

s w

ould

resu

lt in

a $

104

milli

on e

lect

ricity

cos

t sa

ving

s –

an o

vera

ll co

stof

$6

milli

on

61

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 62 of 65

000397

5. C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s: S

umm

ary

–M

aine

Cap

acity

Add

ition

Th

e S

tate

of M

aine

cou

ld a

ct in

depe

nden

tly a

nd c

ontra

ct fo

r add

ition

al c

apac

ity

to M

aine

, on

a st

anda

lone

bas

is (i

.e.,

not p

art o

f a la

rger

pip

elin

e pr

ojec

t)

Ass

umin

g th

e S

tate

of M

aine

con

tract

s fo

r add

ition

al c

apac

ity:

•A

50,0

00 D

th/d

ay c

apac

ity a

dditi

on a

t a d

aily

rate

of $

1.50

/Dth

wou

ld re

sult

in a

n an

nual

cos

t of

appr

oxim

atel

y $2

7 m

illion

To

ach

ieve

$27

milli

on in

ele

ctric

ity c

ost s

avin

gs fo

r the

Sta

te o

f Mai

ne, a

bas

is re

duct

ion

of 1

5%

to 2

0% is

requ

ired

50

,000

Dth

/day

repr

esen

ts a

n in

crem

enta

l cap

acity

add

ition

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y 1%

of p

eak

day

dem

and

for N

ew E

ngla

nd.

A ca

paci

ty a

dditi

on o

f tha

t mag

nitu

de is

not

like

ly to

hav

e a

subs

tant

ial e

ffect

on

the

basi

s pr

emiu

m fo

r the

New

Eng

land

regi

on

•A

200,

000

Dth

/day

cap

acity

add

ition

at a

dai

ly ra

te o

f $1.

50/D

th w

ould

resu

lt in

an

annu

al c

ost o

f ap

prox

imat

ely

$110

milli

on

To

ach

ieve

$11

0 m

illion

in e

lect

ricity

cos

t sav

ings

for t

he S

tate

of M

aine

, a b

asis

redu

ctio

n of

65

% to

70%

is re

quire

d

B

y co

mpa

rison

, the

cap

acity

add

ition

of o

ver 1

,000

,000

Dth

/day

of p

ipel

ine

capa

city

into

the

New

Yo

rk C

ity re

gion

cor

resp

onde

d w

ith a

65%

to 7

0% re

duct

ion

in fo

rwar

d na

tura

l gas

pric

es.

•1,

000,

000

Dth

/day

repr

esen

ts a

n in

crem

enta

l add

ition

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y 23

% o

f pea

k da

y de

man

d fo

r the

New

Yor

k C

ity re

gion

.H

owev

er, 2

00,0

00 D

th/d

ay re

pres

ents

an

incr

emen

tal

addi

tion

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y 4%

to 5

% o

f pea

k da

y de

man

d fo

r the

New

Eng

land

regi

on

62

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 63 of 65

000398

Con

tent

s

1.In

trodu

ctio

n

2.E

xecu

tive

Sum

mar

y

3.N

atur

al G

as M

arke

t Ove

rvie

w

4.N

atur

al G

as P

ipel

ine

Cap

acity

Opt

ions

5.C

ost /

Ben

efit

Ana

lysi

s

6.Su

mm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

63

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 64 of 65

000399

6. S

umm

ary

and

Con

clus

ions

Th

ere

is p

oten

tial f

or s

igni

fican

t gro

wth

in n

atur

al g

as d

eman

d in

the

New

Eng

land

re

gion

–pa

rticu

larly

giv

en th

e va

rious

sta

te/p

rovi

ncia

l nat

ural

gas

initi

ativ

es

Sev

eral

nat

ural

gas

infra

stru

ctur

e pr

ojec

ts h

ave

been

pro

pose

d by

var

ious

ent

ities

to

alle

viat

e th

e cu

rren

t cap

acity

con

stra

ints

into

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on

Incr

emen

tal n

atur

al g

as p

ipel

ine

capa

city

into

the

New

Eng

land

regi

on w

ould

pla

ce

dow

nwar

d pr

essu

re o

n th

e re

gion

al n

atur

al g

as p

rice

indi

ces

and,

ther

efor

e, b

enef

it cu

stom

ers

who

use

thos

e pr

ice

sign

als

in tr

ansa

ctio

ns (e

.g.,

elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n se

gmen

t)

Bas

ed o

n th

e hi

stor

ical

rela

tions

hip

betw

een

natu

ral g

as p

rices

and

ele

ctric

ity L

MP

s in

ISO

-NE

, Sus

sex

calc

ulat

ed th

e po

tent

ial r

educ

tion

in L

MP

s as

a re

sult

of a

n ex

pect

ed re

duct

ion

in w

hole

sale

nat

ural

gas

pric

es (a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith in

crem

enta

l pi

pelin

e ca

paci

ty) t

o es

timat

e th

e po

tent

ial e

nerg

y co

st s

avin

gs to

ele

ctric

ity

cust

omer

s fo

r the

201

2/20

13 s

plit-

year

Th

e be

nefit

(i.e

., re

duce

d na

tura

l gas

cos

ts a

nd, t

here

fore

, low

er L

MP

s) a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith in

crem

enta

l pip

elin

e ex

pans

ion

was

com

pare

d to

var

ious

cos

t est

imat

es (i

.e.,

cost

of p

ipel

ine

capa

city

)

For t

he N

ew E

ngla

nd re

gion

, the

est

imat

ed a

nnua

l ben

efits

und

er a

40%

bas

is re

duct

ion

scen

ario

wou

ld o

ffset

the

annu

al c

osts

of a

1,0

00,0

00 D

th/d

ay o

f inc

rem

enta

l pip

elin

e ca

paci

ty

at a

dai

ly p

ipel

ine

char

ge o

f $2.

00/D

th

At a

40%

bas

is re

duct

ion

scen

ario

, the

est

imat

ed a

nnua

l ben

efits

to th

e S

tate

of M

aine

wou

ld

mor

e th

an o

ffset

the

annu

al c

osts

of a

50,

000

Dth

/day

con

tract

ass

umin

g a

daily

rate

as

high

as

$2.

00/D

th; h

owev

er, t

he e

stim

ated

ben

efits

wou

ld n

ot o

ffset

the

annu

al c

osts

of a

200

,000

D

th/d

ay c

ontra

ct a

t a d

aily

rate

of a

$1.

00/D

th64

Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy

Attachment 13 Page 65 of 65

000400