marcellus shale and rail: a forecast

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1 Genesee & Wyoming Inc. Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast 2013 Pennsylvania Rail Freight Seminar Ryan Fischer, AVP Emerging Markets Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

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Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast. 2013 Pennsylvania Rail Freight Seminar. Ryan Fischer, AVP Emerging Markets Genesee & Wyoming Inc. Overview. Listed on NYSE with market cap of ~$4 billion Own 111 railroads and employ ~4,500 people serving 2,000 customers - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

1Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Marcellus Shale and Rail:A Forecast2013 Pennsylvania Rail Freight Seminar

Ryan Fischer, AVP Emerging MarketsGenesee & Wyoming Inc.

Page 2: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

2Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Overview

• Listed on NYSE with market cap of ~$4 billion

• Own 111 railroads and employ ~4,500 people serving 2,000 customers

• Operate over 15,000 miles of track with ~1,000 locomotives

• Provide rail services in the United States, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands and Belgium

Page 3: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

3Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Genesee & Wyoming Inc.Nine North American Regions

Page 4: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

4Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

NortheastRegion

• Buffalo & Pittsburgh RR serves numerous sand, pipe customers in western dry and wetMarcellus

• Wellsboro & Corning RR added with RailAmerica, serves heart of dry Marcellus

Page 5: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

“Got shale? You need rail.”

Page 6: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

6Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

U.S. shale geography

Page 7: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

7Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Inputs ~ 30+ railcars per well:• 4-6 railcars of OCTG (pipe)• 15-30+ railcars of sand• 1 railcar of calcium chloride• 1 railcar of barite• ½ railcar of cement

Outputs ~ 10+ railcars per well:• 4-6 railcars of drill cuttings • Varying NGLs, brine and crude

Shale to rail – What does it mean?

Page 8: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

8Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

2009 2010 2011 2012Change2009-12

Stone, clay & aggregates (sand)

470,055 562,236 754,869 771,525 64.1%

Petroleum & coke 217,954 254,259 278,851 256,622 17.7%

Chemicals 753,850 812,808 1,114,270 1,147,241 52.2%

Shale-related shortline traffic

Based on RMI RailConnect Index of Shortline Traffic

Page 9: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

9Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

G&W shale traffic up across several regions

NY/PA and Ohio• Both major regions handling

200-300 shale-related cars/month (3-5% of traffic) even with Marcellus down

• Sand first, followed by pipe, stone, and NGLs• New fractionation plant (June) to add 5K+ cars/year

Wellsboro & Corning (acquired 1/13)• Vast majority of traffic is Marcellus-related

Traffic excludes some stone customers whose volumes cannot be specifically attributed to shale drilling

Page 10: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

10Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

M3/UEO fractionation plant (Scio, Ohio)

• 42,000’ of track • 4 loading tracks, load

55 cars/day

• On site storage for ~250 rail cars

• 16 loading racks

• Rail yard will have three locomotives

Page 11: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

11Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Broader Marcellus trends to watch

• Supply: More takeaway, w/backlog of wells “turned on”– Dry gas projects in northeast of state

– Processing/fractionation plants, ethane and propane pipe in southwest

– Risks of oversupply?

• Demand: Where will it come from?– LNG export decision in coming months? Will they be seasonal?

– Will new power generation demand be enough?

• Western Pennsylvania growth north of Pittsburgh?

Page 12: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

12Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Pennsylvania 2012 production

Page 13: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

13Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Tough economics in western dry Marcellus

Source: Bentek

Page 14: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

14Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Less drilling, but more production?

Page 15: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

15Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Expanded processing, fractionation networks

Source: MarkWest Energy Partners

Page 16: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

16Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

More ethane, propane takeaway

Page 17: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

17Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

“Y-grade” pipeline to the Gulf?

Page 18: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

18Genesee & Wyoming Inc.

Challenges for Marcellus rail

• Defining the market– Pipelines vs. rail? Competition from other shale plays?

• Committing to long-term track investments

• Optimizing use of sites (unit trains?)– What’s the best use of limited properties for transloads, etc.?

• Maintaining service to existing (non-shale) customers

• Strong competition between railroads for projects

Page 19: Marcellus Shale and Rail: A Forecast

19Genesee & Wyoming Inc.