march 4 th – 5 th, 2015 tetsunari iida institute for sustainable energy policies japan’s energy...
TRANSCRIPT
March 4th – 5th, 2015
Tetsunari IIDA
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad
4 years after 3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster
Lunch Debate: Fukushima four years laterMarch 4th-5th 2015, in the European Parliaments
4 yeas after
3.11 Fukushima
2
Over 120,000 refugees left behind
3Aircraft Monitoring by MEXT(Deposition amount of Cesium134 and 137) 3
4
“Under control”“Completely blocked”by Shinzo ABE
4
5
The reality
5
6
Contamination plume
Impermeable layer ?
Ground
water
Ground water level
Reactor Bldg.
Turbine Bldg.
Contaminatedwater tank
Leakage
Sampling well
Cooling w
ater
Sampling well
Sea level
6
The reality
Ice wall
The reality
815 – 30 million m3
9( 画像 ) WSJ
The reality
• Small improvements
• Big mess
• Spreading chaos
9
Spreading chaos
1. “ABE backlash” and “Shock doctrine”
2. All nuclear policy under METI’s governance
3. Corrupted policy design under METI
4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof
5. Complicating “waste issue”
6. “Odd situation” over radiation
7. Difficulty in refugees’ future
8. Media control10
300 32 1151219
119 21 3081418
2005
2009
294 31 5712182012 54
….but, Abe Administration has come,
11291 35 7325102014 41
“ABE-backlash” as “Shock doctrine”
• 2012.12 Strong will to resume nuclear
• 2013.1 ~ Top sales for nuclear export
• 2014.4 New Energy Policy with Nuclear
• 2014.6 Replace NRA committee member
• 2014.7 The first nuke (Sendai) passed NRA
• 2014.12 Local governments’ agreement
• 2015 summer The first nuke restart after 3.11 ?12
“ABE’s jigsaw puzzle”, trick for nuclear revival
13
1. Cleverly devised effort for nuclear restart
2. Changing public perception
3.Manipulating electricity tariff
4. Nuclear FIT (CfD)
5. Relaxing nuclear liability
6. Positive attitude for HLW issue
7. Still stick to “nuclear fuel cycle” myth
Public opinion for nuclear
1414
Cost of nuclear
1515Nuke Coal GasWindon off Geo Hydro
Yen/kWhNuclear cost revisedat compensation of
50 billion USD
Now 110 B$(9.5 yen/kWh)
must be more
Paradigm change about nuclear
1616
Before 3.11 After 3.11
Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly
Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly
More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market
More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market
New trend in Justice : the case of Fukui
17
New trend in Justice : the case against TEPCO
18
All the nuclear has shut down
0on Sept.15 19
Energy saving – the largest alternative to nuclear
20
・ Endurance
・ Commanding
・ Lack of supply
・ More power
・ Bad for economy
・ Efficiency
・ Nega-watt
・ Peak management
・ DSM
・ Good for business
Some “evolution” in energy policy
2121
Data from: GWEA, IAEA, Photon, Platts,
(G
W)
22
Rinsing renewables power - the 4th revolution
Sun rising again, and where
23
FIT (house)
FIT (all)
FIT (2005~)
FIT (2000~)
Increasing EL tariff, decreasing PV cost in Japan
(source)Japan Renewable Foundation 24
Sun rising again1st Oct. 2014
FIT Suspended
25th Jan. 2015
Regional CAP25
Rising community power in Japan
Niceko
Aizu Soma
Yamagata
Setagaya
Chofu
SaitamaIIDA city
Toyama
Odawara
Bizen
Shizuoka Nagano
Takarazuka
Obama
Kyotango
Takayama
Yamaguchi
Kumamoto
Minami-SomaHiroshima
Obihiro
Akita
Shiragami
IwateNiigata
26
Rising community power : Fukushima
27
28
Old regime New paradigm
Centralized Small distributed
Monopoly Community ownership
Hierarchy Network
Fossil & nuclearRenewable &
Energy efficiency
(Numerical) Economic growth
Sufficiency, justice, welfare 29
At the crossroad
29