master plan update - boise airport...master plan update a master plan is… • a process stipulated...
TRANSCRIPT
Master Plan Update
Master Plan UpdateTechnical Advisory Committee (TAC) Meeting #1
DECEMBER 14, 2016
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Welcome!• Airport Team Members
- Rebecca Hupp – Airport Director- Matt Petaja – Deputy Director- Jill Singer – Airport Project Manager
• Airport Consultant Team- Joe Birge – Ricondo & Associates- Damon Smith – Mead & Hunt- Max Braun – Ricondo & Associates- Joe Huy – Ricondo & Associates
2
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Agenda• Introductions• TAC Expectations• Master Plan Overview and Schedule• Inventory of Existing Conditions• Aviation Activity Forecast
- Local Trends- Preliminary Forecast
• Comments and Questions• Next Steps• Closing Remarks
3
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
TAC MembersAustin Shontz, Western Aircraft Andy Coose, TSA
Blake Martin, Turbo Air General Gary Saylor, IDNG
Jeff Jackson, Jackson Jet Center Kevin Hoffman, UPS
Derick O’Neill, City of Boise, Darrell Wodowski, FedEx
Daren Fluke, City of Boise Howard Harmon, Paradies
Meg Leatherman, Ada County Planning Jeff Friedman, Delaware North
Holly Delay, ATCT Paul Decloux, Enterprise
Scott Eaton, FAA Steve Jones, Hertz
Rachel Rud-Scaraglino, Customs Lauren Mclean, Boise City Council & Public at large
Russ Westerberg, General Aviation Teri Sato, Alaska Airlines
Monica Del Rio, Southwest Airlines Mike Pape, Idaho State Aeronautics
4
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
TAC Participation Guidelines
• Be present and participate• Attend four meetings
- Two hours on weekdays• Review materials and be prepared to discuss• Represent interests beyond your own
- Including those of your peers, partners, and industry
- Be respectful and open to differing opinions from fellow TAC members
5
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
A Master Plan IS…• A process stipulated in FAA AC 150/5070-6B• A comprehensive study that describes the short,
medium, and long-term airport development plans to meet future aviation demand
• Elements of a Master Plan studies- Public Involvement Program- Environmental Considerations- Inventory of Existing Conditions- Aviation Forecasts- Facility Requirements- Alternatives Development and Evaluation- Airport Layout Plans- Facilities Implementation Plan- Financial Feasibility Analysis
6
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
A Master Plan is NOT…
• A business or marketing plan• A policy document
- Informs future policy – does not set it• Rigid and inflexible• An FAA development mandate
- …or a guarantee of FAA funding• A wish list• A Military Aircraft Basing Study
7
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Boise Airport Master Plan Update Schedule
8
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Inventory ofExisting Conditions
9
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Purpose of Identifying Existing Conditions• Inventory BOI’s current state of condition as the basis for potential
future development• Collect data/information needed for technical elements of the
Master Plan Update- Aviation activity forecasts
• Current/historical aircraft operations, passenger counts, and socioeconomic data are important inputs to the forecast process
- Facility requirements• Existing conditions are measured against forecast demand to determine future
facility needs- Alternatives development and evaluation
• Existing operational and environmental issues may restrict or necessitate certain development alternatives
- Implementation/financial planning• Existing conditions can affect how future development is implemented/phased• Historical funding and other financial data serves as the basis for determining
financial feasibility of the development alternatives
10
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
• Data/information has been gathered from interviews with and/or data requests made to:
- BOI Finance and Ground Transportation- BOI Security and Operations- BOI Facilities and Engineering- BOI Property and Contracts- Fixed Base Operators (Western Aircraft, Turbo Air, Jackson Jet Center)- Cargo operators (FedEx, UPS)- Military (Air National Guard, Army National Guard)- National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)- FAA Airport Traffic Control Tower
• Types of data obtained to date include:- Prior Master Plan Update report- Current Airport Layout Plan and CAD drawings- 2015 FAR Part 150 Study- Ground transportation statistics- Airfield pavement condition data- Environmental and sustainability information- Utilities information
- Aircraft gate use data- Runway and taxiway usage- Socioeconomic data and projections- Airport parking analysis report- Airport lease log- Aviation activity data
Approach for Identifying Existing Conditions
11
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Existing Conditions Elements• Inventory data is organized into the following categories for
documentation purposes:- Airfield facilities- Passenger terminal facilities- Support/ancillary facilities- Ground access and parking facilities- Utilities and stormwater drainage- Airspace and air traffic control procedures- Environmental inventory- Regional setting and land use- Nonaeronautical land/compatible land use planning- Socioeconomic data- Meteorological data
- Aviation activity statistics (to be included in activity forecasts chapter)- Financial data (to be included in financial feasibility chapter)
12
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Aviation Activity Forecast
13
Section One
Local Trends
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Despite Industry Consolidation the Air Service Market Continues to be Served by Multiple Airlines
NOTES: 1/ Actual flown departing seats. 2/ Enplaned passengers are passengers boarding an airplane from BOI. 3/ Total operations (arrivals and departures).SOURCE: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Form T-100, November 2016.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Aircraft Operations
3/(thousands)An
nual
Dep
artin
g Se
ats1/
and
Pass
enge
rs2/
(mill
ions
)
Calendar Year
Alaska Southwest Delta UnitedAmerican Other Enplaned Passengers Aircraft Operations
14
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
The Way Airlines Utilize Capacity at BOI is Changing
NOTES: 1/ Actual flown departing seats. 2/ Enplaned passengers are passengers boarding an airplane from BOI. SOURCES: U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annu
al D
epar
ting
Seat
s1/an
d Pa
ssen
gers
2/
(mill
ions
)
Calendar Year
O&D Connecting Through Empty Seats Total Seats
15
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Non Stop DestinationsAugust 2006• 28 Destinations Served by Scheduled Airlines• 89 Average Daily Flights• 7,247 Average Daily Departing Seats• 4,385 Average Daily Departing Seats to Major
Airline Hubs1/
August 2016• 20 Destinations with Scheduled Service1/
• 64 Average Daily Flights• 5,999 Average Daily Departing Seats• 3,967 Average Daily Departing Seats to Major
Airline Hubs2/
NOTE: 1/ As published in Innovata schedule data as of August 2016. 2/ Major airline hubs are Atlanta (ATL), Denver (DEN), Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW), Houston–Intercontinental (IAH), Los Angeles (LAX), Chicago–Midway (MDW), Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP), Chicago–O’Hare (ORD), Phoenix (PHX), Seattle (SEA), San Francisco (SFO), and Salt Lake City (SLC).SOURCE: Innovata, November 2016.
16
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Local Socioeconomic Conditions Have Stabilized in Recent Years
NOTES: Socioeconomic variables are for the BOI Air Trade Area, which includes Ada, Adams, Boise, Canyon, Elmore, Gem, Owyhee, Payette, Valley, and Washington counties. Economic data are inflation-adjusted.SOURCE: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., November 2016.
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cha
nge
From
200
6
Calendar Year
Population Employment Total EarningsPersonal Income Personal Income per Capita Gross Regional Product
17
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Both Passenger Volumes and Revenues Are Growing
NOTES: Includes passengers terminating at U.S. destinations only. 1/ O&D – Origin and Destination, passengers not connecting at the Airport.SOURCE: U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016.
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cha
nge
From
200
6
Calendar Year
O&D Passengers O&D Revenue Average Fare1/
18
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Aviation Activity Forecast
19
Section Two
Preliminary Forecast
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Enplaned Passenger Forecast Methodology• Short-Term (2016): Conducted analysis of published schedules, carrier
announcements, and recent performance of carriers serving the Airport. Incorporated socioeconomic analysis to project underlying demand.
• Medium- to Long-Term (2017-2035): Conducted various socioeconomic analyses at the local and national levels to identify longer-term demand growth at the Airport. Resulting demand growth estimates were applied to estimate enplaned passengers.
• Overall: Assumed no additional industry “shocks”- Airline consolidation- Fuel spikes- Economic recession
• Forecast Scenarios- In addition to the baseline forecast, high and low growth scenario forecasts will
be developed
20
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Annu
al E
npla
ned
Pass
enge
rs (m
illio
ns)
Calendar Year
O&D Passengers Connecting Passengers
O&D and Connecting Enplaned Passenger Forecast
CAGR1/ = 2.4%8.6% from 2015 to 2016
NOTE: 1/ CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate, the average annual growth.SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
21
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Passenger Aircraft Operations Methodology• Average seats per departure changed according to
fleet mix projections- Aircraft orders- Operating characteristics of airlines serving the Airport- National trends favoring larger aircraft
• Used historical trends to estimate completion factor of scheduled operations
• Assumed average load factor would remain relatively consistent throughout the forecast period
22
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,00020
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
35
Annu
al P
asse
nger
Airc
raft
Ope
ratio
ns
Calendar Year
Passenger Airline Operations Forecast
CAGR = 1.5%
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Innovata, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
23
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Load Factor and Seats per Departure Forecast
NOTE: 1/ Average number of enplaned passengers divided by total departing seats.SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), OPSNET, November 2016; Innovata, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Average Load FactorAv
erag
e Se
ats
per D
epar
ture
Calendar Year
Seats per Departure Average Load Factor
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
24
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Cargo Volumes and Operations Forecast Methodology• Conducted socioeconomic regression analysis at the
local and national levels to identify relationships between socioeconomic variable and total cargo volumes
• Used forecast socioeconomic variables and their relationship with total cargo volumes to project cargo volumes
• Used the historical relationship between total cargo volumes and all-cargo operations to forecast all-cargo operations
25
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035An
nual
Car
go V
olum
es (m
illio
ns o
f pou
nds)
1/
Calendar YearAll-Cargo Carrier Volumes Belly Cargo Volumes
Cargo Volume Forecast
CAGR = 2.2%
NOTES: 1/ Total volume, departing and arriving. 2/ All-cargo carriers do not transport passengers (e.g., FedEx, UPS). 3/ Belly cargo is cargo transported on passenger aircraft.SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
2/ 3/
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
26
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Annu
al A
ll-C
argo
Airc
raft
Ope
ratio
ns
Calendar Year
All-Cargo Aircraft Operations Forecast
CAGR = 1.8%
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
27
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
General Aviation/Other Air Taxi Aircraft Forecast Methodology• Analyzed historical relationship between
national and local general aviation activity• Used the historical relationship and projected
growth in general aviation hours flown in the FAA Aerospace Forecast to forecast operationsby aircraft type
- Piston- Turbine- Jet- Other
28
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,00020
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
35
Annu
al G
ener
al A
viat
ion
Airc
raft
Ope
ratio
ns
Calendar YearItinerant Local
General Aviation/Other Air Taxi Aircraft Operations Forecast
CAGR = 1.5%
SOURCES: FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; FAA, Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC), November 2016; FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal Years 2016-2036, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
1/
NOTE: 1/ Local operations are aircraft operating only in the local traffic pattern of the Airport. All other operations are itinerant.
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
29
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,00020
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
35
Annu
al M
ilita
ry A
ircra
ft O
pera
tions
Military Aircraft Operations
Military Aircraft Operations Forecast
Held constant based on the FAA TAF
SOURCES: FAA OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
NOTE: Forecast military operations are held constant at 2015 levels, consistent with the approach in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for the Airport. Military operations are mission specific and have the potential for high variability depending on military needs.
Actual Forecast
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
30
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Aircraft Fleet Mix Methodology Forecast• Passenger airline fleet mix projections were based on:
- Aircraft orders- Operating characteristics of airlines serving the Airport- National trends favoring larger aircraft
• Cargo fleet mix was projected to remain at 2015 levels• General aviation fleet mix was based on forecast
operations by aircraft type
31
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Passenger Fleet Mix Forecast
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
NOTE: The representative aircraft indicated are not exhaustive and do not imply any particular aircraft will operate at the Airport in the future. They are provided as a comparison to aircraft seen operating at BOI in 2015.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016 2020 2025 2035
Perc
ent o
f Pas
seng
er O
pera
tions
Calendar Year
Fewer than 51 Seats (CRJ2) 77–100 Seats (E190) 101–130 Seats (A319)151 Seats or More (MD83, B739) 131–150 Seats (B737, A320) 51–76 Seats (DH8D, E170, CRJ7)
Actual
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
32
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Airport Total Fleet Mix Forecast
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
NOTE: The representative aircraft indicated are not exhaustive and do not imply any particular aircraft will operate at the Airport in the future. They are provided as a comparison to aircraft seen operating at BOI in 2015.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016 2020 2025 2035
Perc
ent o
f Airp
ort O
pera
tions
Calendar Year
GA/Small (C206, CRJ2, DH8D, E170, UH1) Narrowbody (A320, B737, B752)Widebody (A306, A310, B763) Military (A-10, UH-60, C-130, F-15)
Actual
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
33
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Fore
cast
Var
ianc
e Fr
om T
AFCalendar Year
Variance from TAF
Variance from TAF
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Annu
al E
npla
ned
Pass
enge
rs (m
illio
ns)
Calendar Year
Comparison of Enplaned Passenger Forecasts
SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, 2015 Terminal Area Forecast, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
NOTES: 1/ Adjusted to calendar year for comparison. 2/ Variance tolerance levels are 10% within 5 years and 15% within 10 years (FAA AC 150/5070-6B).
FAA Variance Tolerance Range2/
Historical 2016 BOI Master Plan Forecast 2015 FAA TAF1/
34
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Historical 2016 BOI Master Plan Forecast 2015 FAA TAF1/
Comparison of Aircraft Operations Forecasts
NOTES: 1/ Adjusted to calendar year for comparison. 2/ Variance tolerance levels are 10% within 5 years and 15% within 10 years (FAA AC 150/5070-6B).SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast: FY 2016-2036, November 2016; FAA, 2015 Terminal Area Forecast, November 2016 ; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast).
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Annu
al A
ircra
ft O
pera
tions
(tho
usan
ds)
Calendar Year
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Fore
cast
Var
ianc
e Fr
om T
AFCalendar Year
Variance from TAF
Variance from TAF
FAA Variance Tolerance Range2/
35
Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review
Purposes Only
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Comments and Questions
36
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Next Steps
• Finalize forecast numbers and documentation• Submit draft forecast to FAA for review/
approval• Begin analysis of facility requirements
• Next TAC meeting: May 2017, to be determined in February
- Topics: Facility requirements and initiation of alternatives development
37
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Master Plan Update Information and Master Plan CommentsMaster Plan Update Website:http://www.iflyboise.com/about-boi/master-plan/
38
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Public Involvement Program
Public Open House – Tonight• Boise River Room
- Third Floor of Airport• Two Sessions
- 5 p.m. – 6 p.m.- 7 p.m. – 8 p.m.
Parking will be validated
39
Master Plan UpdateMaster Plan Update
Thank you!
40