mems & sensors for iot: how big can it...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2014 IHS
Presentation
ihs.com
IHS
MEMS & Sensors for IoT: how big can it be?
MEMS & Sensors
Jérémie Bouchaud, Director and Senior Principal Analyst, MEMS & Sensors
October 2014
Contents
© 2014 IHS
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smart homes,
smart cities,
smart factories
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© 2014 IHS 3
The market today
© 2014 IHS
Shipment of sensors which are relevant for IoT scenario
in handsets and tablets (touch sensor not included)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bil
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f u
nit
s
Biometric sensors (fingerprint,retina scanning...)
Health/environment sensors(Pulse, Gas, Humidity, UV,Temp)
Imaging sensors (VIS andthermal)
Light sensors: ALS, prox, RGB
Microphones
Motion sensors: accelero, mag,gyro, pressure and combo
Sensor elements counted e.g. 2 sensor counted for 6-axis IMU combo (accelero+gyro)
© 2014 IHS
Shipment of sensors for wearable takes off
5
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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Sensor shipment by wearable device category
Smart clothing & otherwearablesSmart earbuds / headsets
Sports & Running Computers
Outdoor Pursuits Computers
Foot Pods & Pedometers
Activity Monitors
Action cameras
Fitness & Heart Rate Monitors
Smart Glasses
Smart Watches
Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for wearables report - 2014
© 2014 IHS
Shipment of sensors for wearable by sensor type
6
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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s
Environment sensors
Heath sensors
UI MEMS/sensors
Motion sensors
Source: IHS MEMS & Sensors for wearables report - 2014
© 2014 IHS 7
The market tomorrow
© 2014 IHS
Total automotive sensor shipment by function
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bil
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Instrument panel illumination Head Unit: MultipurposeElectrochromic mirror Built-in navigationWindscreen wiper motor Vehicle AlarmVarious switches Tunnel detectionSolar sensor Seat motorRain sensor Noise cancellation systemHVAC valve position HVAC motorHead rest position Head rest motorFuel tank level Electronic Parking BrakeElectric sunroof motor Electric roof motorElectric roof (open/close) Electric rear window motorElectric front window motor Door lockCompass Cabin temperature, anti-fogCabin HVAC Cabin air qualityBoot (trunk) lock Air intake flap motorTire pressure monitor Steering wheel torqueSteering wheel angle Steer by wire motorSeat track position Seat belt presence detectionRoll detection Pedestrian protectionPassenger occupation detection Fuel tank vaporESC Electrohydraulic power steering motorElectric power steering motor E-call, accident sensorCrash sensing Brake Light SwitchBrake fluid level Brake by wire motorAirbag ADASActive suspension Active suspensionAcceleration pedal ABS (wheel speed)Wideband lambda sensor Variable lift control actuatorVacuum brake booster pump Vacuum brake boosterTurbocharger speed Turbocharger motorSelector lever position SCR tank temperatureSCR tank level PM (soot) sensorOil pressure Oil levelNOx sensor Neutral position (manual)Mass Air Flow Manifold absolute pressureLambda sensor Knock sensorIn-cylinder pressure HEV / EV motor inverterHEV / EV DC-DC subsystem inverter HEV / EV battery monitorGasoline direct injection Fuel levelExhaust gas temperature Exhaust Gas Recirculation Valve PositionExhaust gas recirculation valve motor Exhaust gas recirculationExhaust control valve EV, PEHV, HEV propulsion motorEV, PEHV, HEV HVAC compressor motor EV, PEHV, HEV engine cooling pump motorEngine speed Engine cooling fanEngine coolant temperature Electronic throttle valveElectronic throttle motor EGR temperatureDual clutch and AMT motor Diesel particle filterDiesel Common fuel rail motor Diesel common fuel railCrankshaft Coolant levelContinuous variable transmission Clutch positionCamshaft Battery Monitoring SystemBarometric air pressure Auxillary water pump motorAutomatic, AMT, DCT transmission Ammonia sensorAir intake temperature
Source: IHS Automotive MEMS tracker – H1 2014, Magnetic sensor tracker H1 2014, Powertrain sensors tracker H1 2014, ADAS semiconductor
intelligent service
Non semiconductor sensors in powertrain not included (potentiometers, reed, ceramic pressure etc)
© 2014 IHS 9
Total Automotive sensor shipment by domain and by
technology
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billi
on
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Automotive sensor shipment by domain
Infotainment
Body and Convenience electronics
Chassis and safety
Powertrain
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billi
on
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f u
nit
s
Automotive sensor shipment by technology
Radar
Optical sensor
Non semiconductor sensor
MEMS
Magnetic
Source: IHS Automotive MEMS tracker – H1 2014, Magnetic sensor tracker H1 2014, Powertrain sensors tracker H1 2014, ADAS semiconductor
intelligent service
© 2014 IHS
Obvious sensors in IoT scenario
Throttle, EGR valve
position, manifold air
pressure, altitude, mass air
flow, DPF, common fuel rail,
start-stop, EGR, continuous
transmission
Cam/crankshaft position,
engine speed, throttle by
wire, engine oil, brake fluid
level,
Airbag accelerometer, roll
detection, passenger
occupation, in-cylinder
pressure, active suspension
accelerometer
Various brushless DC
motors, cooling fan, coolant
level, ABS, pedestrian
detection, crash sensing
(ultrasound)
Compass, HVAC position,
sunroof, wipers, solar
sensors, head-up display,
MEMS microphones,
brightness, rain, auto
dimming mirror, automatic
lights
Trunk / door lock switches,
electric windows, HVAC,
HUD, air quality, temp. anti-
fog, in-dash navigation
gyroscope, night vision
Wheel speed sensing, fuel
level, seat position, belt
presence, TPMS, fuel vapor
Electronic parking brake,
suspension pressure,
alarm, E-call, electronic
stability control, roll-over
Battery management
sensor, wing mirror position,
steering wheel angle, torque
Radar, image
sensors, ultrasonic
sensors, infrared
imagers, LIDAR
© 2014 IHS
Cars become increasingly connected
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mil
lio
ns
of
un
its
Automotive connected systems shipment
Bluetooth WiFi - 802.11x Telematics V2X
Source: IHS Infotainment Semiconductor Intelligent Service
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© 2014 IHS
What else can be done with 6 billion connected
automotive sensors?
• Predictive maintenance?
• Giving early warning of some kind of major engine fault.
• Adjusting of the engine to account for wear over its life
• (Monetized) service
• Updating the braking or ESC algorithms with new developments (or even standards),
• Turning on features in a vehicle like hill start assist or TPMS option for a fee as an aftermarket feature
• Fuel quality. Are you getting the XX octane you are paying for?
• More dynamic reporting for consumer after scheduled maintenance – did they “really”tsuj rO ?sdiulf eht lla egnahc
charge you for it?
• Monitoring entiring fleet
• Collect real time statistical data on new engine, understand what can be improved in future generations
• Better targeted recall
• Current architecture not ready to support these applications though. Separated networks for
powertrain, infotainment, safety...
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© 2014 IHS 13
The market after tomorrow
© 2014 IHS
Industrial, Medical, Mil-Aero IoT market
(nodes, controllers, infrastructure)
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-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2011 2012 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
Bil
lio
ns
of
un
its
Industrial Internet Connected Devices – New Device Shipment
Other Industrial
Test & Measurement
Security
Power & Energy
Military & Aerospace
Medical
Lighting
Industrial Automation
EFT-POS, Smart Cards
Commercial Transport
Building Automation
IHS Internet of Things report – 2014 Edition
© 2014 IHS
Smart homes: example USA market
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mil
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Total installed base of Smart Home Services in the USA
IHS Smart Home Subscribers Report - 2014
© 2014 IHS 16
Smart homes: example USA market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
New subscribers to Smart Homes service by service type
Lighting Controls Subscribers
Energy Management Subscribers
Home Monitoring Subscribers
Hazard Detection Subscribers
IHS Smart Home Subscribers Report - 2014
• Example companies providing smart
home services in the USA:
• ADT
• Nest
• Comcast
• AT&T
• Home Depot
• Lowe‘s
• Cox Communication
• Creston
• Vivint
• FrontPoint Security
© 2014 IHS 17
Smart homes: example USA market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mil
lio
ns o
f u
nit
s
Sensor shipment for smart homes by service type
Lighting Controls Subscribers
Home Monitoring Subscribers
Hazard Detection Subscribers
Energy Management Subscribers
IHS Sensors for IoT – preliminary results
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018M
illi
on
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Sensor shipment for smart homes by sensor type
Motion Magnetic
Temperature Smoke
Gas Humidity
Light Water
© 2014 IHS 18
Smart cities deployment
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025
Number of smart cities
Americas
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Asia-Pacific
IHS Smart Cities: Business Models, Technologies & Existing Projects – World –
2014
• IHS Technology defines a smart
city as a city that has deployed,
or is currently piloting, the
integration of ICT solutions
across three or more of the
following functions: mobility and
transport, energy and
sustainability, physical
infrastructure, governance and
safety and security, in order to
improve efficiency, manage
complexity and enhance citizen
quality of life, leading to a
sustainable improvement in city
operation
© 2014 IHS 19
Smart cities by function
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025
Smart cities by functional area (multiple functions/city)
Governance
Safety andSecurity
PhysicalInfrastructure
Energy andSustainability
Mobility andTransport
IHS Smart Cities: Business Models, Technologies & Existing Projects – World
– 2014
• Mobility and transport
• Smart ticketing
• Smart parking
• Intelligent transportation systems
• Energy and sustainibiltiy
• Smart grid
• Environmental sensors
• Irrigation management
• Physical Infrastructure
• Smart street lighting
• Smart buildings
• Waste management
• Safety and Security
• Integrated video surveillance
• Predictive analytics
• Governance
• Mobile reporting applications
• Consolidated services platforms
© 2014 IHS 20
Sensors for smart cities
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025
Mil
lio
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nit
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Sensor shipment for smart city by service type
Traffic Management
Smart Street Lighting
Waste Disposal Management
Air Quality Monitoring
IHS Sensors for IoT – preliminary results
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
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0,6
0,7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025M
illi
on
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Sensor shipment for smart cities by sensor type
Gas ProximityTemperature ParticleLight Pressure/ForceMotion Other sensorMagnetic NoiseWind Vision
© 2014 IHS
Industrial Monitoring and Control
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mil
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of
un
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Cellular Modules in Asset Management
Industrial Monitoring & Control Pipeline & Tank Monitoring Asset Tracking
IHS Cellular Modules for M2M - 2014
© 2014 IHS
Cloud based machine health monitoring
• 300,000 plants in the US
• Machine health of compressors, pumps etc
• Until now: data collectors (Emerson, GE, CSI...)
• Operators from service provider driving from plan to plant to analyze data
• EmergingAMIZA.g.egnirotinomhtlaehenihcam“desabduolc„
• 1 analyst covers > 100 plants (as opposed to 5 plants with data loggers)
• Typically 100 machines / plant.
• Beyond vibration, also cover oil quality and infrared (thermal cameras)
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© 2014 IHS
Cloud based machine health monitoring: no mass
market for sensors anytime soon...
• Off-line monitoring in most cases
• Few vibration sensors per plant for monitoring 100s of machines
• Operator installs vibration sensor on one machine, records the data and send
them to cloud based analysis service provider.
• Then puts the sensor on next machine
• Process control reluctant to implement on-line monitoring
• Wired sensor: very expensive
• Wireless: difficult to implement in industrial environment (EMI)
• Vibration(004$-051$)“evisnepxe„srosnes
• SitefohtlaehrotinomotgnilliwsyawlatoN.“enozegnaro„otdesurotarepo
every machine in real time
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© 2014 IHS
IHS currently quantifying the sensor market for
Industrial IoT
• Smart homes
• Smart cities
• Smart factories
• Health monitoring
• Independant living
• Smart grid
• Agriculture
• Asset tracking
• Drones and robotics
• Seismic sensing
• Other consumer applications e.g. Smart diapers
• ...
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© 2014 IHS
Conclusion: Sensors for IoT
• Handsets and tablets will still make up for most of connected sensors in next 10
years
• Sensor shipment more than doubling in 5 years from 10.4 billion sensors in 2013 to
23.2 billion in 2018
• Automotive
• 6 billion sensors in 2018
• ADAS and E-Call sensors are first sensors to support IoT scenarios
• As cars are becoming connected car OEMs are exploring how to create value by
leveraging“srosnesdetcennocnoillib6„
• Industrial IoT
• Sensor opportunity generated by IoT in the range 10s to 100s of millions, not billions
• Smart homes is one of largest opportunity for sensors in next 10 years
• IHS still working on asset management, industrial process, smart grid, health...
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