Meteorology in aviation

current developments and future trends

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

Jos de Laat (PhD)senior scientist

R&D satellite observationsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

KNMI

- provide meteo data for national airport

- long history of providing (certain) satellite services for aviation

- looking to expand/develop satellite services for aviation à rapid expansion of satellite remote sensing capacity over last 15+ years

- use aircraft as flying sensors for improving weather forecasting (mode-S)

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

WMO Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference

November 2017, Toulouse, France

- the future of aviation is data

- meteorological data are key

à remote sensing data are key to meteorological data

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

Meteorology & aviation

- ground operations- strategic flight planning (in advance)- tactical flight planning (on the fly)

- safety- cost- comfort

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

2000 making satellite data available via the then new internet

2004 making satellite data relevant for aviationaccessible

2008 making satellite data available in supportof volcanic early warning

2012 making satellite data available for local volcano observatories

2016 integrate all relevant(satellite) data for aviationvolcanic ash, dust, smoke

funded by ESA/EU-FP7/EU-H2020

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

http://www.meandair.com ESA feasibility study“data on board”

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_01_10/pdfs/AERO_Q1-10_article05.pdf

High Altitude Ice Crystal project (EU-FP7; 2013-2017; lead AIRBUS)

http://www.haic.eu

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

satellite-basedmonitoring/nowcastingof hazardous conditions

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Number of satellite sources used at ECMWF

AEOLUSSMOSTRMMCHAMP/GRACECOSMICMETOPMTSAT radMTSAT windsJASONGOES radMETEOSAT radGMS windsGOES windsMETEOSAT windsAQUATERRAQSCATENVISATERSDMSPNOAA

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No. of sources

European Center for Medium RangeWeather Forecasting

ECMWF uses ≈70 different satellite instruments in near-real time

Most improvements in forecasting over the past decade has come from global satellite observations

- clouds- winds- temperature- moisture- surface properties

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

aircraft routing à meteorological data à weather forecasts à satellites

Current developments

- monitoring volcanic ash, smoke, dust- research into specific aspects of severe weather

Trends (data !!!)

- monitoring severe weather & hazards- use meteo data for strategic and tactical flight planning- real time flight guidance- improving weather forecasting (1-10 days)- improving nowcasting of weather (forecasts updated every hour)- first lightening sat missions (global network by 20-something)

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

but this is key:

enabling access to meteo data

(in a clever way)

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

Trend: 5G comes with a promise of moving high data volumes at high speed and the interconnection of millions of sensors.

[1] In the meteorological application for aviation, how is the need for real time data evolving?

[2] Is there a trend towards using big data & AI?

[3]how much data, how much needed transmission to be processed on board a/c?

[4] What would be a breakthrough compared with today’s approach to deliver meteo info to the pilots during flight?

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

[1] In the meteorological application for aviation, how is the need for real time data evolving?

- future aviation = data driven- autonomous flight (requires real-time data on board à high data volume)- tactical/strategic pre-flight planning (can be don on ground and then transferred to aircraft à low data volume)- don’t forget ground logistics, where meteo is also important

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

[2] Is there a trend towards using big data & AI?

- trend is to exploring full range of data (huge data volumes)

- AI will find its way

- current use of meteo data in aviation is “1960’ish…’, especially on board

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

[3]how much data, how much needed transmission to be processed on board a/c?

- the more, the merrier

- difficult to estimate: meteo data volumes (obs, models) is rapidly growing

- applications and services that condense data volumes still must be developed

- several Mb to 1 Gb/hour (better gueswork; highly uncertain, depends on how clever the information is packaged, etc…)

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC

[4] What would be a breakthrough compared with today’s approach to deliver meteo info to the pilots during flight?

- real time access to data

- methods/algorithms to handle data and translate data to meaningful information/options/advice/recommendations

- on board capacity to incorporate data in tactical and strategic flight planning

Digital Sky and Beyond - future downstream services – ESA workshop 18 May 2018, ESTEC