midwest solar expo - amazon s3€¦ · midwest solar expo tristan grimbert president and ceo edfr...

Midwest Solar Expo

Tristan GrimbertPresident and CEO

EDFR North America May 2019

Asset Optimization offers a full range of services for all phases of renewable energy

projects – operations, management, procurement, routine and emergency maintenance, retrofits and upgrades.

Asset OptimizationAsset OptimizationDistributed Solutions originates, develops,

builds, and operates customer-focused renewable energy projects that incorporatesolar, storage, electric vehicle charging, and

energy storage management.

Distributed SolutionsDistributed SolutionsGrid-Scale Power provides origination,

development, transaction and construction services for large-scale wind (offshore and onshore), solar photovoltaic, and storage

projects.

Grid-Scale PowerGrid-Scale Power

© EDF Renewables / Midwest Solar Expo / May 2019 | 2

CONSTRUCTIONDEVELOPMENT TRANSACTIONORIGINATION ASSET OPTIMIZATION


6 Drivers of the Future of Solar in the Midwest

Future of Solar in the Midwest

Transportation Electrification

ITC Phase Down

Carbon Price

Corporate PPAs

Solar Cannibalization

Distributed Solutions

| 4

Electricity consumption in the US has plateaued, but is expected to resume growth with

electrification of the transportation sector

Sources: NREL Electrification Futures Study and EIA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2001A

2002A

2003A

2004A

2005A

2006A

2007A

2008A

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016A

2017A

2018A

High Case: a combination of technology advancements, policy support and consumer enthusiasm that enables transformational change

Medium Case: a future with widespread electrification among the “low-hanging fruit” opportunities in electric vehicles, heat pumps and select industrial applications

Reference Case: the least incremental change in electrification through 2050, which serves as a baseline of comparison to the other scenarios

0.7% CAGR

© EDF Renewables / Midwest Solar Expo / May 2019

| 5

Utility-scale solar is expected to remain the dominant segment for solar through ITC expiration,

but C&I remains more resilient post-expiration

Notes:1) Average of GTM Woodmac (through 2024), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (through 2025), and IHS projections (through 2030) IHS MW provided in MWac and converted to MWdc at

AC/DC ratio of 1.352) Excludes residential sector

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

C&I share

Annu

al a

dditi

ons i

n M

Wdc

C&I Solar Utility Solar C&I Share(1) (1) (2)


| 6

Post-ITC may be brighter than forecasted

(30.0%)

(25.0%)

(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

0.0%

5.0%

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

$ / W

Bloomberg Utility Solar PV Capex Curve

Annual Change $ / Watt $ / Watt (ITC Adj.)

$0.75 $0.72

States continue to pass increasing RPS mandates– CA, DC, HI, NJ, NM, NY, PR, WA now all have 100%

renewable or carbon-free targets– MD & NV also recently passed 50% by 2030 targets

Increasing corporate procurement– RE100(1) membership is now at 165 – ~190TWh needed to meet 2030 goals of this group

Increasing utility procurement– Opportunity to replace generation component of

rate base, which has been shrinking

Carbon Pricing: resurfacing at the regional level and on the Federal agenda

Sources from BP to McKinsey now forecast renewables as the dominant source of power by 2040

Continued Demand GrowthCost curve expectations could be exceeded



The rise and risks of Corporate PPAsNew Risks:

• Credit: who will be here to pay the bills in 2030?

• Basis Risks: increased renewable penetration and/or lack of transmission can create double digit basis

• Duck Curve: renewable happens at the same time creating its own value suppression

• Short tenure: how to predict wholesale price in 30 years?


Example: Death Spiral of Merchant Prices


EDFR View of the evolution of the Duck Curve in CA

Source: EDFR

| 11

Grid of the future

Source: Stratfor

Comparison of Features

Features Current Grid Future “Smart” Grid

Grid Communication Non or one-way; typically not real time Two-way; real-time

Interaction Between Customers Limited Comprehensive and extensive

Type of Metering Electromechanical Digital (real-time pricing and net metering

Operation & Maintenance Manual equipment checks Remote monitoring, protective

Power Generation Centralized Centralized and distributed

Energy Control Limited Comprehensive, automated

Reliability & Dependability

Vulnerable to downfalls, failures and cascading outages

Automatic, pro-active protection

Restoring Procedure Following Disturbance Manual Self-healing



Power is digitalizing and decentralizing

Source: BNEF

Source: Hawaiian Electric Industries investor presentation


COMPANYBEHIND

THE METERAGGREGATED LOADS

OR “ISLANDING”GRID-SCALE

STORAGEUTILITY-SCALE RENEWABLE

GENERATION + STORAGEUTILITY-SCALE

RENEWABLE GENERATION

CON EDISON

TESLA/SOLARCITY

SCOTTISHPOWER

VATTENFALL

EDFENERGY RENEWABLES

PG&E

Being present on all segments will be a competitive advantage


Success drivers for solar players

Future of Solar in the Midwest

Transportation Electrification

ITC Phase Down

Carbon Price

Corporate PPAs

Solar Cannibalization

Distributed Solutions

Location, location, location

Multi‐technology, multi‐markets

Volume Value Engineering

Success


Questions

midwest solar expo - amazon s3€¦ · midwest solar expo tristan grimbert president and ceo edfr...

Documents