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MISSOULA COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS:

POPULATION AND ENROLLMENT FORECASTS, 2019-20 THROUGH 2028-29

February 2019

McKibben Demographic Research, LLCJerome McKibben, Ph.D.

Rock Hill, SC

[email protected]

978-501-7069

Missoula County Public Schools Demographic Study –February 2019

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................3

INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................4

DATA............................................................................................................................................................5

ASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................................................................5

METHODOLOGY...........................................................................................................................................8

REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................................10

Appendix A: Supplemental Tables............................................................................................................11

Appendix B: Population Forecasts............................................................................................................15

Appendix C: Population Pyramids..............................................................................................................27

Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts............................................................................................................33

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The resident total fertility rate for the Missoula County Public Schools over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.63 vs. the replacement level of 2.1) If the college students are excluded from the calculations, the TFR rises to 1.93

2. Most non-college in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-4 and 25-to-34 year old age groups.

3. The local 18-to-24 year old population continues to leave the district, going to college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.

4. The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to increase over the next 10 years is the slowing in the increase in empty nest households, the growing number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of in migration of young families.

5. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next five years will primarily be due to small cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with larger cohorts leaving the system.

6. The elementary enrollment will begin to slowly decrease after the 2024-25 school year.

7. The median age of the district’s population will increase from 31.5 in 2010 to 34.2 in 2030. This is a substantial increase for a school district that contains a large university

8. Even if the district continues to have a sustained amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.

9. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 714 students, or 7.8%, between 2018-19 and 2023-24. Total enrollment will increase by 106 students, or 1.1%, from 2023-24 to 2028-29.

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INTRODUCTION

By demographic principle, distinctions are made between projections and forecasts. A projection extrapolates the past (and present) into the future with little or no attempt to take into account any factors that may impact the extrapolation (e.g., changes in fertility rates, housing patterns or migration patterns) while a forecast results when a projection is modified by reasoning to take into account the aforementioned factors.

To maximize the use of this study as a planning tool, the ultimate goal is not simply to project the past into the future, but rather to assess various factors’ impact on the future. The future population and enrollment change of each school district is influenced by a variety of factors. Not all factors will influence the entire school district at the same level. Some may affect different areas at dissimilar magnitudes and rates causing changes at varying points of time within the same district.

The forecaster’s judgment, based on a thorough and intimate study of the district, has been used to modify the demographic trends and factors to more accurately predict likely changes. Therefore, strictly speaking, this study is a forecast, not a projection; and the amount of modification of the demographic trends varies between different areas of the district as well as within the timeframe of the forecast.

To calculate population forecasts of any type, particularly for smaller populations such as a school district, realistic suppositions must be made as to what the future will bring in terms of age specific fertility rates and residents’ demographic behavior at certain points of the life course. The demographic history of the school district and its interplay with the social and economic history of the area is the starting point and basis of most of these suppositions particularly on key factors such as the age structure of the area. The

unique nature of each district's and attendance area’s demographic composition and rate of change over time must be assessed and understood to be factors throughout the life of the forecast series. Moreover, no two populations, particularly at the school district and attendance area level, have exactly the same characteristics.

The manifest purpose of these forecasts is to ascertain the demographic factors that will ultimately influence the enrollment levels in the district’s schools. There are of course, other non-demographic factors that affect enrollment levels over time. These factors include, but are not limited to transfer policies within the district; student transfers to and from neighboring districts; placement of “special programs” within school facilities that may serve students from outside the attendance area; state or federal mandates that dictate the movement of students from one facility to another (No Child Left Behind was an excellent example of this factor); the development of charter schools in the district; the prevalence of home schooling in the area; and the dynamics of local private schools.

Unless the district specifically requests the calculation of forecasts that reflect the effects of changes in these non-demographic factors, their influences are held constant for the life of the forecasts. Again, the main function of these forecasts is to determine what impact demographic changes will have on future enrollment. It is quite possible to calculate special “scenario” forecasts to measure the impact of school policy modifications as well as planned economic and financial changes. However in this case the results of these population and enrollment forecast are meant to represent the most likely scenario for changes over the next 10 years in the district and its attendance areas.

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The first part of the report will examine the assumptions made in calculating the population forecasts for the Missoula County Public Schools. Since the results of the population forecasts drive the subsequent enrollment forecasts, the assumptions listed in this section are paramount to understanding the area’s demographic dynamics. The remainder of the report is an explanation and analysis of the district's population forecasts and how they will shape the district's grade level enrollment forecasts.

DATA

The data used for the forecasts come from a variety of sources. The Missoula County Public Schools provided enrollments by grade and attendance center for the school years 2010-2011 to 2018-19. Birth and death data for the years 2000 through 2017were obtained from the Montana Department of Health. The net migration values were calculated using Internal Revenue Service migration reports for the years 2000 through 2017.

The data used for the calculation of migration models came from the United States Bureau of the Census, 2005 to 2010, and the models were designed using demographic and economic factors. The base age-sex population counts used are from the results of the 2010 Census.

Recently the Census Bureau began releasing annual estimates of demographic variables at the block group and tract level from the American Community Survey (ACS). There has been wide scale reporting of these results in the national, state and local media. However, due to the methodological problems the Census Bureau is experiencing with their estimates derived from ACS data, particularly in areas with a population of less than 60,000, the results of the ACS are not used in these forecasts. For example, given

the sampling framework used by the Census Bureau, each year only 900 of the over 29,000 current households in the district would have been included. For comparison 4,000 households in the district were included in the sample for the long form questionnaire in the 2000 Census. As a result of this small sample size, the ACS survey result from the last 5 years must be aggregated to produce the tract and block group estimates.

To develop the population forecast models, past migration patterns, current age specific fertility patterns, the magnitude and dynamics of the gross migration, the age specific mortality trends, the distribution of the population by age and sex, the rate and type of existing housing unit sales, and future housing unit construction are considered to be primary variables.

In addition, the change in household size relative to the age structure of the forecast area was addressed. While there was a slight drop in the average household size in the Missoula County Public Schools as well as most other areas of the state during the previous 20 years, the rate of this decline has been forecasted to slow over the next ten years.

ASSUMPTIONS

For these forecasts, the mortality probabilities are held constant at the levels calculated for the year 2010. While the number of deaths in an area are impacted by and will change given the proportion of the local population over age 65, in the absence of an extraordinary event such as a natural disaster or a breakthrough in the treatment of heart disease, death rates rarely move rapidly in any direction, particularly at the school district or attendance area level. Thus, significant changes are not foreseen in district’s mortality rates between now and the year 2028. Any increases forecasted in the

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number of deaths will be due primarily to the general aging of the district’s population and specifically to the increase in the number of residents aged 65 and older.

Similarly, fertility rates are assumed to stay fairly constant for the life of the forecasts. Like mortality rates, age specific fertility rates rarely change quickly or dramatically, particularly in small areas. Even with the recently reported rise in the fertility rates of the United States, overall fertility rates have stayed within a 10% range for most of the last 40 years. In fact, the vast majority of year to year change in an area’s number of births is due to changes in the number of women in child bearing ages (particularly ages 20-29) rather than any fluctuation in an area’s fertility rate.

The resident total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of births a woman will have while living in the school district during her lifetime, is estimated to be 1.63 for the total district for the ten years of the population forecasts. A TFR of 2.1 births per woman is considered to be the theoretical “replacement level” of fertility necessary for a population to remain constant in the absence of in-migration. Therefore, in the absence of migration, fertility alone would be insufficient to maintain the current level of population and enrollment within the Missoula County Public Schools over the course of the forecast period.

However, the district’s TFR is lowered by the presence of a large number of university students living in the district. College students have been included in the census population counts of the locality then attend school at since the 1950 Census and on campus students are reported in the area’s group quarters population. If the college student population is excluded from the TFR calculation, the district’s resident TFR rises to 1.92.

A close examination of data for the Missoula County Public Schools has shown the age specific pattern of net migration will

be nearly constant throughout the life of the forecasts. While the number of in and out migrants has changed in past years for the Missoula County Public Schools(and will change again over the next 10 years), the basic age pattern of the migrants has stayed nearly the same over the last 30 years. Based on the analysis of data it is safe to assume this age specific migration trend will remain unchanged into the future.

This pattern of migration shows most of the local out-migration occurring in the 18-to-24 year old age group as young adults leave the area to go to college or move to other urbanized areas. The second group of out-migrants is those householders aged 70 and older who are downsizing their residences. Most of the local in-migration occurs in the 0-to-4 and 25-34age groups (the bulk of the which come from areas within 150 miles of the Missoula County Public Schools) primarily consisting of younger adults and their children.

As the Missoula County area is not currently contemplating any major expansions or contractions, the forecasts also assume that the current economic, political, social, and environmental factors, as well as the transportation and public works infrastructure (with a few notable exceptions) of the Missoula County Public Schools and its attendance areas will remain the same through the year 2028. Below is a list of assumptions and issues that are specific to the Missoula County Public Schools These issues have been used to modify the population forecast models to more accurately predict the impact of these factors on each area’s population change.

Specifically, the forecasts for the Missoula County Public Schools assume that throughout the study period:

a. The national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four

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consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter)

b. Interest rates have reached a historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.0%;

c. The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices;

d. There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers;

e. The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2008 average of Missoula County for any year in the forecasts;

f. The district averages 450 to 500 existing home sales annually over the next 10 years;

g. All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and completed by 2027. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2028;

h. The unemployment rates for the Missoula County and the Missoula Metropolitan Area will remain below 6.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;

i. The intra district student transfer policy remains unchanged over the next 10 years;

j. The State of Montana does not change any of its current laws or policies regarding Charter Schools, Vouchers or inter district transfers;

k. No Charter schools open in Missoula County over the next 10 years;

l. The rate of students transferring into and out of the Missoula County Public Schools will remain at the 2014-15 to 2018-19 average;

m. The Missoula County Public Schools does not adopt an “open enrollment” policy any time over the next 10 years;

n. The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts;

o. There will be no building moratorium within the district;

p. Businesses within the Missoula Metropolitan Area and the Missoula County Public Schools will remain viable;

q. The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year;

r. Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 60;

s. Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant;

t. The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2008 average for Missoula County.

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If a major employer in the district or in the Greater Missoula Metropolitan Area closes, reduces or expands its operations, the population forecasts would need to be adjusted to reflect the changes brought about by the change in economic and employment conditions. The same holds true for any type of natural disaster, major change in the local infrastructure (e.g., highway construction, water and sewer expansion, changes in zoning regulations etc.), a further economic downturn, any additional weakness in the housing market or any instance or situation that causes rapid and dramatic population changes that could not be foreseen at the time the forecasts were calculated.

The high proportion of high school graduates from the Missoula County Public Schools that attend college or move to urban areas outside of the district for employment is a significant demographic factor. Their departure is a major reason for the extremely high out-migration in the 18 to 24 age group, and was taken into account when calculating these forecasts. The out-migration of graduating high school seniors is expected to continue over the period of the forecasts and the rate of out-migration has been forecasted to remain the same over the life of the forecast series.

Finally, all demographic trends (i.e., births, deaths, and migration) are assumed to be linear in nature and annualized over the forecast period. For example, if 1,000 births are forecasted for a 5-year period, an equal number, or proportion of the births are assumed to occur every year, 200 per year. Actual year-to-year variations do and will occur, but overall year to year trends are expected to be constant.

METHODOLOGY

The population forecasts presented in this report are the result of using the Cohort-Component Method of population forecasting (Siegel, and Swanson, 2004: 561-601) (Smith et. al. 2004). As stated in the INTRODUCTION, the difference between a projection and a forecast is in the use of explicit judgment based upon the unique features of the area under study. Strictly speaking, a cohort projection refers to the future population that would result if a mathematical extrapolation of historical trends.

Conversely, a cohort-component forecast refers to the future population that is expected because of a studied and purposeful selection of the components of change (i.e., births, deaths, and migration) and forecast models are developed to measure the impact of these changes in each specific geographic area.

Five sets of data are required to generate population and enrollment forecasts. These five data sets are:

a. a base-year population (here, the 2010 Census population for the Missoula County Public Schools and its attendance areas);

b. a set of age-specific fertility rates for the district to be used over the forecast period and its attendance areas;

c. a set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for the district and its attendance areas;

d. a set of age-specific migration rates for the district and its attendance areas; and;

e. the historical enrollment figures by grade.

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The most significant and difficult aspect of producing enrollment forecasts is the generation of the population forecasts in which the school age population (and enrollment) is embedded. In turn, the most challenging aspect of generating the population forecasts is found in deriving the rates of change in fertility, mortality, and migration. From the standpoint of demographic analysis, the Missoula County Public Schools is classified as a “small area” population (as compared to the population of the state of Montana or to that of the United States).

Small area population forecasts are more complicated to calculate because local variations in fertility, mortality, and migration may be more irregular than those at the regional, state or national scale. Especially challenging is the forecast of the migration rates for local areas, because changes in the area's socioeconomic characteristics can quickly change from past and current patterns (Peters and Larkin, 2002.)

The population forecasts for Missoula County Public Schools were calculated using a cohort-component method with the populations divided into male and female groups by five-year age cohorts that range from 0-to-4 years of age to 85 years of age and older (85+). Age- and sex-specific fertility, mortality, and migration models were constructed to specifically reflect the unique demographic characteristics of each of the attendance areas in the Missoula County Public Schools.

The enrollment forecasts were calculated using a modified average survivorship method. Average survivor rates (i.e., the proportion of students who progress from one grade level to the next given the average amount of net migration for that grade level) over the previous five years of year-to-year enrollment data were calculated for grades two through twelve. This procedure is used to identify specific grades

where there are large numbers of students changing facilities for non-demographic factors, such as private school transfers or enrollment in special programs.

The survivorship rates were modified or adjusted to reflect the average rate of forecasted in and out migration of 5-to-9, 10-to-14 and 15-to-17 year old cohorts to each of the attendance centers in Missoula County Public Schools for the period 2010 to 2015. These survivorship rates then were adjusted to reflect the forecasted changes in age-specific migration the district should experience over the next five years. These modified survivorship rates were used to project the enrollment of grades 2 through 12 for the period 2015 to 2020. The survivorship rates were adjusted again for the period 2020 to 2025 to reflect the predicted changes in the amount of age-specific migration in the district for the period.

The forecasted enrollments for kindergarten and first grade are derived from the 5-to-9 year old population of the age-sex population forecast at the elementary attendance center district level. This procedure allows the changes in the incoming grade sizes to be factors of forecasted population change and not an extrapolation of previous class sizes. Given the potentially large amount of variation in Kindergarten enrollment due to parental choice, changes in the state's minimum age requirement, and differing district policies on allowing children to start Kindergarten early, first grade enrollment is deemed to be a more accurate and reliable starting point for the forecasts. (McKibben, 1996) The level of the accuracy for both the population and enrollment forecasts at the school district level is estimated to be +2.0% for the life of the forecasts.

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REFERENCES

McKibben, J.The Impact of Policy Changes on Forecasting for School Districts. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, December 1996

McKibben, J., M. Gann, and K. Faust.The Baby Boomlet's Role in Future College Enrollment. American Demographics, June 1999.

Peters, G. and R. LarkinPopulation Geography. 7th Edition. Dubuque, IA: Kendall Hunt Publishing. 2002.

Siegel, J. and D. SwansonThe Methods and Materials of Demography: Second Edition, Academic Press: New York, New York. 2004.

Smith, S., J. Tayman and D. SwansonState and Local Population Projections, Academic Press, New York, New York. 2001.

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Appendix A: Supplemental Tables

Table 1: Forecasted Elementary Area Population Change, 2010 to 2020

2010 2015 2010-2015Change 2020 2015-2020

Change2010-2020

Change

Chief Charlo 4,686 4,930 5.2% 5,130 4.1% 9.5%

Jeannette Rankin 7,473 7,900 5.7% 8,410 6.5% 12.5%

Franklin 6,535 6,860 5.0% 7,160 4.4% 9.6%

Hawthorne 6,222 6,570 5.6% 6,870 4.6% 10.4%

Lewis and Clark 8,720 8,970 2.9% 9,210 2.7% 5.6%

Lowell 7,807 8,310 6.4% 8,740 5.2% 12.0%

Paxson 12,028 12,290 2.2% 12,590 2.4% 4.7%

Rattlesnake 8,289 8,480 2.3% 8,670 2.2% 4.6%

Russell 4,987 5,240 5.1% 5,450 4.0% 9.3%

District Total 66,747 69,550 4.2% 72,230 3.9% 8.2%

Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

HH w/ Pop Under 18

% HH w/ Pop Under 18 Total Households Household

PopulationPersons Per Household

Chief Charlo 635 36.0% 1764 4679 2.65

Jeannette Rankin 1040 38.6% 2695 7375 2.74

Franklin 656 21.2% 3089 6456 2.09

Hawthorne 732 27.0% 2708 6168 2.28

Lewis and Clark 920 23.8% 3859 8714 2.26

Lowell 679 16.8% 4031 7510 1.86

Paxson 784 16.7% 4698 9674 2.06

Rattlesnake 879 24.2% 3629 8170 2.25

Russell 590 26.1% 2260 4987 2.21

District Total 6915 24.1% 28733 63733 2.22

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Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

Percentage of Householders aged

35-54

Percentage of Householders aged

65+

Percentage of Householders who

own homes

Chief Charlo 38.3% 15.2% 73.3%

Jeannette Rankin 42.1% 17.6% 76.1%

Franklin 31.0% 16.0% 47.8%

Hawthorne 33.7% 18.2% 53.2%

Lewis and Clark 26.1% 19.8% 50.9%

Lowell 27.4% 10.3% 25.8%

Paxson 27.1% 12.4% 38.5%

Rattlesnake 34.1% 20.6% 63.9%

Russell 30.5% 19.7% 47.4%

District Total 31.3% 16.3% 50.3%

Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area , 2010 Census

Percentage of Single Person Households

Percentage of Single Person Households and are 65+

Chief Charlo 20.1% 5.5%Jeannette Rankin 16.4% 5.7%Franklin 38.4% 9.0%Hawthorne 31.3% 8.9%Lewis and Clark 28.5% 9.3%Lowell 47.2% 7.6%Paxson 38.2% 6.1%Rattlesnake 30.2% 8.7%Russell 33.3% 9.2%District Total 33.0% 7.8%

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Table 5: Elementary Enrollment (K-5), 2018, 2023, 2028

2018 20232018-2023

Change2028

2023-2028Change

2018-2028Change

Chief Charlo 414 390 -5.8% 366 -6.2% -11.6%

Jeannette Rankin 497 573 15.3% 596 4.0% 19.9%

Franklin 295 335 13.6% 330 -1.5% 11.9%

Hawthorne 405 416 2.7% 409 -1.7% 1.0%

Lewis and Clark 477 478 0.2% 460 -3.8% -3.6%

Lowell 298 312 4.7% 327 4.8% 9.7%

Paxson 477 513 7.5% 478 -6.8% 0.2%

Rattlesnake 475 437 -8.0% 429 -1.8% -9.7%

Russell 354 351 -0.8% 344 -2.0% -2.8%

District Total 3,692 3,805 3.1% 3,739 -1.7% 1.3%

Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 Census

Under 1year

1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years

Chief Charlo 44 72 72 61 68 54 65 68 74 69 61

Jeannette Rankin 93 85 115 113 88 121 97 123 111 132 95

Franklin 88 91 86 79 67 52 55 51 52 64 49Hawthorne 86 90 96 85 69 86 70 56 54 62 67Lewis and Clark 100 86 95 97 92 76 78 79 83 96 74

Lowell 103 92 106 89 85 65 68 64 51 49 42Paxson 88 90 67 76 80 84 80 83 64 75 55Rattlesnake 90 78 86 76 95 91 99 88 86 77 74Russell 62 66 72 68 54 43 59 58 40 56 53District Total 753 750 794 743 698 672 671 669 615 679 570

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Table 7: Comparison of District Resident Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age, 2014-2018

2010 Census Under 1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10

years11

years12

years13

years

Missoula Public Schools

753 750 794 743 698 672 671 669 615 679 570 630 586 588

2018 Enrollment

611 635 628 598 611 513 993 938 911 892

81.2% 84.7% 79.1% 80.5% 87.6% 76.3% 148% 140% 148% 131%2017 Enrollment 608 641 637 609 618 524 542 946 916 925 890

80.8% 85.5% 80.2% 82.0% 88.6% 78.0% 80.8% 142% 149% 136% 156%2016 Enrollment 593 646 644 596 604 522 560 525 928 970 912 863

78.8% 86.2% 81.1% 80.3% 86.6% 77.7% 83.5% 78.5% 151% 143% 160% 137%2015Enrollment 595 646 648 611 617 522 565 511 524 975 912 899 851

79.1% 86.2% 81.6% 82.3% 88.5% 77.7% 84.3% 76.4% 85.3% 144% 160% 143% 145%2014Enrollment 642 659 643 623 517 565 490 526 533 921 934 876 831

85.7% 83.0% 86.6% 89.3% 76.9% 84.3% 73.3% 85.6% 78.5% 162% 148% 150% 141%

First grade cohorts are in red

Appendix B: Population Forecasts

Missoula County Public Schools Total Population

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 3,736 3,880 4,010 3,800 3,7405-9 3,305 3,450 3,730 3,880 3,720

10-14 3,023 3,280 3,400 3,690 3,85015-19 5,183 5,090 5,220 5,370 5,59020-24 9,693 9,610 9,560 9,600 9,61025-29 6,935 7,030 6,980 6,890 6,97030-34 5,125 5,470 5,750 5,680 5,61035-39 3,690 4,320 4,680 4,940 4,92040-44 3,527 3,510 4,070 4,420 4,71045-49 3,895 3,430 3,360 3,930 4,27050-54 4,203 3,780 3,260 3,230 3,81055-59 4,197 4,060 3,640 3,170 3,10060-64 3,352 3,970 3,790 3,360 2,94065-69 2,247 2,980 3,540 3,410 3,01070-74 1,494 2,050 2,680 3,250 3,11075-79 1,180 1,390 1,930 2,510 3,07080-84 1,010 1,180 1,380 1,920 2,46085+ 956 1,070 1,250 1,440 1,830

Total 66,747 69,550 72,230 74,490 76,320

Median Age 31.5 32.2 32.8 33.5 34.2

Births 3,960 4,000 3,900 3,830

Deaths 1,760 1,980 2,200 2,550

Natural Increase 2,200 2,020 1,700 1,280

Net Migration 610 600 590 550

Change 2,810 2,620 2,290 1,830

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

Chief Charlo Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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0-4 316 280 290 280 2805-9 330 360 320 330 320

10-14 306 330 360 320 33015-19 368 290 300 340 30020-24 369 320 280 290 32025-29 400 390 340 280 30030-34 299 430 410 360 31035-39 291 340 470 440 40040-44 303 290 330 460 44045-49 325 300 280 330 46050-54 351 320 290 280 33055-59 322 340 320 290 27060-64 303 310 330 300 28065-69 182 280 280 300 28070-74 77 180 240 260 27075-79 72 70 160 220 24080-84 38 70 70 160 22085+ 34 30 60 70 120

Total 4,686 4,930 5,130 5,310 5,470

Median Age 34.3 36.0 37.8 40.2 42.0

Births 290 280 280 270

Deaths 10

0 13

0 14

0 19

0

Natural Increase 19

0 15

0 14

0 8

0

Net Migration

70

70

60 6

0

Change 26

0 22

0 20

0 14

0


Jeanette Rankin Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 493 570 640 590 5705-9 582 510 650 710 650

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10-14 526 610 510 650 71015-19 586 500 580 490 61020-24 527 540 480 550 46025-29 408 550 570 500 57030-34 464 450 590 610 54035-39 489 520 500 640 66040-44 560 510 520 520 66045-49 565 560 500 520 52050-54 514 550 550 490 51055-59 530 500 550 530 48060-64 396 490 460 500 49065-69 286 340 420 390 44070-74 189 270 320 400 37075-79 150 170 260 300 37080-84 111 150 170 260 29085+ 97 110 140 180 230

Total 7,473 7,900 8,410 8,830 9,130

Median Age 36.5 37.1 36.9 37.5 38.4

Births 490 510 510 500

Deaths 200 240 270 330

Natural Increase 290 270 240 170


Change 370 370 360 280


Franklin Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 411 430 430 390 3605-9 274 270 310 340 330

10-14 257 260 250 290 330

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15-19 324 300 300 300 33020-24 910 800 740 740 73025-29 827 830 720 660 66030-34 657 730 740 640 58035-39 376 570 650 660 56040-44 339 380 570 590 61045-49 409 340 370 550 57050-54 414 390 330 360 54055-59 369 390 380 310 34060-64 286 350 370 360 29065-69 199 260 320 350 33070-74 137 180 240 290 32075-79 127 130 170 230 28080-84 122 130 130 170 22085+ 97 120 140 150 180

Total 6,535 6,860 7,160 7,380 7,560

Median Age 32.0 33.7 35.7 37.5 39.1

Births 460 450 420 390

Deaths 180 200 220 250



Change 320 290 240 180


Hawthorne Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 424 430 470 410 4005-9 327 330 350 380 350

10-14 332 310 310 330 370

18


15-19 372 410 370 370 38020-24 685 730 710 660 61025-29 616 600 650 630 61030-34 506 520 520 570 56035-39 347 430 460 460 53040-44 315 340 430 460 46045-49 427 320 340 420 44050-54 428 430 300 340 42055-59 417 420 410 300 33060-64 333 400 400 390 29065-69 230 310 380 380 38070-74 151 220 300 360 36075-79 127 150 210 280 34080-84 93 120 140 210 28085+ 96 100 120 150 190

Total 6,222 6,570 6,870 7,100 7,300

Median Age 33.5 34.6 35.6 37.2 38.5

Births 440 460 420 400

Deaths 170 200 220 270



Change 330 310 250 170


Lewis and Clark Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 469 450 470 440 4305-9 412 430 430 430 410

10-14 437 410 430 430 43015-19 429 460 430 450 440

19


20-24 1,553 1,470 1,500 1,470 1,49025-29 876 910 830 840 82030-34 604 710 740 650 68035-39 415 450 550 590 51040-44 406 410 440 550 58045-49 456 400 410 440 55050-54 516 450 390 400 44055-59 568 500 440 390 40060-64 464 550 490 420 37065-69 320 440 520 470 40070-74 229 310 410 490 43075-79 209 210 290 390 47080-84 194 210 210 290 38085+ 163 200 230 240 290

Total 8,720 8,970 9,210 9,380 9,520

Median Age 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.8 35.6

Births 490 500 470 470

Deaths 280 310 330 370



Change 250 230 180 140


Lowell Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 475 510 510 510 5105-9 297 320 350 370 370

10-14 212 280 310 330 35015-19 353 390 460 480 51020-24 1,438 1,490 1,470 1,540 1,56025-29 1,284 1,280 1,260 1,230 1,300

20


30-34 821 800 860 830 80035-39 478 520 560 620 58040-44 413 420 460 500 56045-49 377 410 410 460 49050-54 456 370 400 400 45055-59 396 440 370 400 39060-64 293 390 430 350 38065-69 141 250 330 380 30070-74 115 140 230 320 36075-79 93 110 120 220 29080-84 74 100 110 120 21085+ 91 90 100 120 130

Total 7,807 8,310 8,740 9,180 9,540

Median Age 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.8 31.1

Births 610 590 610 610

Deaths 160 180 210 230



Change 480 440 430 410


Paxton Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 402 460 450 450 4105-9 386 400 500 510 490

10-14 324 360 380 480 49015-19 2,005 2,070 2,010 2,030 2,12020-24 2,864 2,930 2,970 2,910 2,92025-29 1,324 1,310 1,460 1,500 1,44030-34 796 730 810 960 990

21


35-39 552 580 480 570 71040-44 497 480 500 400 49045-49 465 440 440 450 36050-54 534 430 400 390 41055-59 632 500 390 350 34060-64 449 590 440 340 31065-69 281 380 510 380 28070-74 154 240 340 470 34075-79 122 140 230 300 45080-84 99 120 140 230 30085+ 142 130 140 150 210

Total 12,028 12,290 12,590 12,870 13,060

Median Age 25.1 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.3

Births 420 430 440 400

Deaths 230 250 270 310



Change 300 280 270 190


Rattlesnake Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 425 430 420 410 4305-9 441 480 490 470 470

10-14 393 450 490 510 49015-19 414 400 470 510 53020-24 726 690 720 750 79025-29 717 650 610 660 67030-34 558 670 610 570 60035-39 472 520 620 550 520

22


40-44 452 440 480 590 53045-49 581 420 420 460 57050-54 659 550 410 420 45055-59 664 650 530 410 41060-64 587 620 590 490 37065-69 420 530 550 520 42070-74 283 370 450 470 45075-79 159 260 350 420 45080-84 173 160 260 340 42085+ 165 190 200 240 320

Total 8,289 8,480 8,670 8,790 8,890

Median Age 40.0 39.5 39.2 39.7 39.5

Births 420 400 400 420

Deaths 290 300 350 410



Change 200 180 120 80


Russell Elementary Total Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 321 320 330 320 3505-9 256 350 330 340 330

10-14 237 270 360 350 35015-19 332 270 300 400 37020-24 621 640 690 690 73025-29 483 510 540 590 60030-34 420 430 470 490 55035-39 271 390 390 410 45040-44 242 240 340 350 380

23


45-49 290 240 190 300 31050-54 331 290 190 150 26055-59 299 320 250 190 14060-64 240 270 280 210 16065-69 188 190 230 240 18070-74 159 140 150 190 21075-79 121 150 140 150 18080-84 106 120 150 140 14085+ 72 100 120 140 160

Total 4,987 5,240 5,450 5,650 5,850

Median Age 32.9 33.0 31.9 31.4 31.8

Births 320 310 310 340

Deaths 150 170 190 190



Change 250 210 190 210


Appendix C: Population Pyramids

24


25


26


27


28


29


Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts

Missoula Public Schools: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 595 578 624 604 618 619 618 619 616 616 607 603 596 6001 646 593 577 639 628 636 637 633 634 631 631 622 616 6082 648 646 608 575 640 631 644 645 641 642 639 640 630 6243 611 644 641 611 573 639 632 645 646 642 643 642 643 6334 617 596 637 635 603 568 635 627 640 641 637 639 638 6385 522 604 609 628 631 597 567 634 628 640 641 636 638 636

Total: K-5 3,639 3,661 3,696 3,692 3,693 3,690 3,733 3,803 3,805 3,812 3,798 3,782 3,761 3,739

6 565 522 618 598 633 632 600 564 643 633 645 647 641 6437 511 560 524 611 597 632 630 598 562 641 631 643 645 6398 533 524 525 542 513 603 589 621 620 589 553 631 621 632

Total: 6-8 1,600 1,607 1,684 1,722 1,833 1,853 1,851 1,782 1,794 1,827 1,907 1,911 1,918 1,916

9 975 928 946 993 921 1,082 1,071 1,129 1,114 1,058 1,003 1,140 1,131 1,12910 912 970 916 938 979 907 1,065 1,056 1,112 1,097 1,042 1,001 1,139 1,12911 899 912 925 911 913 953 881 1,035 1,025 1,079 1,065 1,012 972 1,10512 851 863 890 892 892 892 931 861 1,012 1,002 1,052 1,041 988 950

Total: 9-12 3,637 3,673 3,677 3,734 3,705 3,834 3,948 4,081 4,263 4,236 4,162 4,194 4,230 4,313

Total: K-12 8,876 8,941 9,057 9,148 9,231 9,377 9,532 9,666 9,862 9,875 9,867 9,887 9,909 9,968

Total: K-12 8,876 8,941 9,057 9,148 9,231 9,377 9,532 9,666 9,862 9,875 9,867 9,887 9,909 9,968

Change 116 65 116 91 83 146 155 134 196 13 -8 20 22 59

%-Change 1.32% 0.73% 1.30% 1.00% 0.91% 1.58% 1.65% 1.41% 2.03% 0.13%-

0.08% 0.20% 0.22% 0.60%

Total: K-5 3,639 3,661 3,696 3,692 3,693 3,690 3,733 3,803 3,805 3,812 3,798 3,782 3,761 3,739Change -10 22 35 -4 1 -3 43 70 2 7 -14 -16 -21 -22

%-Change -0.3% 0.60% 0.96% -0.1% 0.03%-

0.08% 1.17% 1.88% 0.05% 0.18%-

0.37%-

0.42%-

0.56%-

0.58%

Total: 6-8 1,600 1,607 1,684 1,722 1,833 1,853 1,851 1,782 1,794 1,827 1,907 1,911 1,918 1,916Change 51 7 77 38 111 20 -2 -69 12 33 80 4 7 -2

%-Change 3.29% 0.44% 4.79% 2.26% 6.45% 1.09%-

0.11% -3.7% 0.67% 1.84% 4.38% 0.21% 0.37%-

0.10%

Total: 9-12

3,637

3,673

3,677

3,734

3,705

3,834

3,948

4,081

4,263

4,236

4,162

4,194

4,230

4,313

Change 36 4 57 -29 129 114 133 182 -27 -74 32 36 83

%-Change 0.99% 0.11% 1.55%-

0.78% 3.48% 2.97% 3.37% 4.46%-

0.63%-

1.75% 0.77% 0.86% 1.96%

Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.

30


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000Missoula County Public Schools: K-5th Total Enrollment

31


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Missoula County Public Schools: 6-8th Total Enrollment

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Missoula County Public Schools: 9-12th Total Enrollment

32


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Missoula County Public Schools: K-12th Total Enrollment

Chief Charlo Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 69 73 59 62 62 61 60 59 58 57 55 56 55 571 78 73 70 61 64 65 64 63 62 61 60 58 57 562 75 80 76 65 62 65 67 66 65 64 63 62 60 593 84 77 80 77 66 63 67 69 68 67 66 65 64 624 82 83 74 77 78 67 64 68 70 69 68 68 67 665 49 85 90 72 75 76 66 63 67 69 68 67 67 66

Total: K-5 437 471 449 414 407 397 388 388 390 387 380 376 370 366

Total: K-5 437 471 449 414 407 397 388 388 390 387 380 376 370 366Change 34 -22 -35 -7 -10 -9 0 2 -3 -7 -4 -6 -4

% Change 7.8%-

4.7%-

7.8%-

1.7%-

2.5%-

2.3% 0.0% 0.5%-

0.8%-

1.8%-

1.1%-

1.6%-

1.1%


33


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Chief Charlo Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Jeanette Rankin Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 76 79 71 85 86 88 90 92 94 96 95 93 92 90

1 81 69 81 78 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 98 97 96

2 86 86 75 81 80 90 91 93 95 97 99 100 99 98

3 86 86 85 76 84 83 93 94 96 98 100 102 103 102

4 85 86 84 84 78 87 85 95 96 98 100 102 104 105

5 79 83 91 93 87 80 89 87 97 98 100 101 103 105

Total: K-5 493 489 487 497 502 517 539 554 573 584 593 596 598 596

Total: K-5 493 489 487 497 502 517 539 554 573 584 593 596 598 596

Change -4 -2 10 5 15 22 15 19 11 9 3 2 -2

% Change -0.8% -0.4% 2.1% 1.0% 3.0% 4.3% 2.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% -0.3%


34


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jeannette Rankin Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Franklin Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 39 41 56 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 54 53 52 51

1 40 37 38 57 54 54 55 55 56 56 57 56 55 54

2 48 40 41 36 58 55 55 56 56 57 57 58 57 56

3 40 48 50 49 37 59 57 57 58 58 59 58 59 58

4 53 38 49 47 46 35 57 55 55 56 56 55 55 55

5 29 49 41 54 48 47 36 58 56 56 57 57 56 56

Total: K-5 249 253 275 295 295 303 313 335 335 338 340 337 334 330

Total: K-5 249 253 275 295 295 303 313 335 335 338 340 337 334 330

Change 4 22 20 0 8 10 22 0 3 2 -3 -3 -4

% Change 1.6% 8.7% 7.3% 0.0% 2.7% 3.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% -0.9% -0.9% -1.2%


35


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Franklin Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Hawthorne Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 64 75 69 69 73 73 72 72 71 71 70 69 68 69

1 82 67 67 72 73 74 74 73 73 72 72 71 70 69

2 76 77 61 65 69 70 72 72 71 71 70 71 70 69

3 54 83 69 58 62 66 67 69 69 68 68 68 69 68

4 58 53 83 67 56 60 65 66 68 68 67 67 67 68

5 51 55 56 74 64 54 58 63 64 66 66 66 66 66

Total: K-5 385 410 405 405 397 397 408 415 416 416 413 412 410 409

Total: K-5 385 410 405 405 397 397 408 415 416 416 413 412 410 409

Change 25 -5 0 -8 0 11 7 1 0 -3 -1 -2 -1

% Change 6.5% -1.2% 0.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% -0.7% -0.2% -0.5% -0.2%


36


201201

201201

201201

202202

202202

202202

202202

2020

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Hawthorne Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Lewis and Clark Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 80 73 84 81 78 77 78 77 77 76 75 74 74 75

1 89 79 71 86 82 82 81 81 80 80 79 78 77 76

2 86 98 81 72 88 84 84 83 83 82 82 81 80 79

3 79 84 87 80 71 86 83 83 82 82 81 81 80 79

4 85 75 78 86 75 67 82 79 79 78 78 78 77 76

5 77 88 74 72 83 72 65 80 77 77 76 76 76 75

Total: K-5 496 497 475 477 477 468 473 483 478 475 471 468 464 460

Total: K-5 496 497 475 477 477 468 473 483 478 475 471 468 464 460

Change 1 -22 2 0 -9 5 10 -5 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4

% Change 0.2% -4.4% 0.4% 0.0% -1.9% 1.1% 2.1% -1.0% -0.6% -0.8% -0.6% -0.9% -0.9%


37


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Lewis and Clark Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Lowell Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 56 48 59 50 53 54 55 56 56 57 57 58 58 59

1 48 61 43 56 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 55 56 56

2 52 35 60 45 54 50 51 52 52 53 53 54 54 55

3 46 45 41 54 42 51 48 49 50 50 51 52 53 53

4 49 34 52 46 55 43 53 50 51 52 52 52 53 54

5 41 38 36 47 44 52 42 51 49 49 50 49 49 50

Total: K-5 292 261 291 298 300 302 302 311 312 315 318 320 323 327

Total: K-5 292 261 291 298 300 302 302 311 312 315 318 320 323 327

Change -31 30 7 2 2 0 9 1 3 3 2 3 4

% Change -11% 11.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 3.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2%


38


201201

201201

201201

202202

202202

202202

202202

2020

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Lowell Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Paxton Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 73 66 82 81 84 83 82 81 80 78 77 76 75 74

1 80 66 78 85 86 87 86 84 83 82 80 79 78 77

2 74 80 71 76 84 85 88 87 85 84 83 81 80 79

3 75 78 75 76 78 87 87 90 89 87 86 85 83 82

4 56 81 72 84 75 77 85 85 88 87 85 84 83 81

5 60 57 76 75 87 78 79 88 88 91 90 88 87 85

Total: K-5 418 428 454 477 494 497 507 515 513 509 501 493 486 478

Total: K-5 418 428 454 477 494 497 507 515 513 509 501 493 486 478

Change 10 26 23 17 3 10 8 -2 -4 -8 -8 -7 -8

% Change 2.4% 6.1% 5.1% 3.6% 0.6% 2.0% 1.6% -0.4% -0.8% -1.6% -1.6% -1.4% -1.6%


39


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

100

200

300

400

500

600

Paxson Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Rattlesnake Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 83 71 89 68 73 73 72 72 71 71 70 69 68 70

1 87 82 76 86 72 74 74 73 73 72 72 71 70 69

2 79 80 88 76 84 71 73 73 72 72 71 71 70 69

3 70 74 84 88 78 87 72 74 74 73 73 73 73 72

4 84 73 80 82 89 79 89 73 75 75 74 75 75 75

5 80 89 66 75 80 86 77 87 72 74 74 73 74 74

Total: K-5 483 469 483 475 476 470 457 452 437 437 434 432 430 429

Total: K-5 483 469 483 475 476 470 457 452 437 437 434 432 430 429

Change -14 14 -8 1 -6 -13 -5 -15 0 -3 -2 -2 -1

% Change -2.9% 3.0% -1.7% 0.2% -1.3% -2.8% -1.1% -3.3% 0.0% -0.7% -0.5% -0.5% -0.2%


40


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Rattlesnake Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Russell Elementary: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

K 55 52 55 56 57 57 56 56 55 55 54 55 54 55

1 61 59 53 58 58 59 59 58 58 57 57 56 56 55

2 72 70 55 59 61 61 63 63 62 62 61 62 60 60

3 77 69 70 53 55 57 58 60 60 59 59 58 59 57

4 65 73 65 62 51 53 55 56 58 58 57 58 57 58

5 56 60 79 66 63 52 55 57 58 60 60 59 60 59

Total: K-5 386 383 377 354 345 339 346 350 351 351 348 348 346 344

Total: K-5 386 383 377 354 345 339 346 350 351 351 348 348 346 344

Change -3 -6 -23 -9 -6 7 4 1 0 -3 0 -2 -2

% Change -0.8% -1.6% -6.1% -2.5% -1.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% -0.9% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6%


41


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Russell Elementary School: K-5th Total Enrollment

Porter Middle School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

6 157 167 200 190 236 211 207 184 232 228 231 234 232 231

7 141 156 171 196 191 237 212 208 185 233 229 232 235 233

8 163 147 149 168 193 188 232 208 204 181 228 224 227 230

Total: 6-8 461 470 520 554 620 636 651 600 621 642 688 690 694 694

Total: 6-8 461 470 520 554 620 636 651 600 621 642 688 690 694 694

Change 9 50 34 66 16 15 -51 21 21 46 2 4 0

% Change 1.95% 10.6% 6.54% 11.9% 2.58% 2.36% -7.8% 3.50% 3.38% 7.17% 0.29% 0.58% 0.00%


42


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

C. S. Porter Middle School: 6-8th Total Enrollment

Meadow Hill Middle School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

6 179 149 179 201 182 178 164 166 164 175 179 180 179 182

7 164 176 152 177 200 181 176 162 164 162 173 177 178 177

8 153 172 177 144 173 196 177 172 159 161 159 170 173 174

Total: 6-8 496 497 508 522 555 555 517 500 487 498 511 527 530 533

Total: 6-8 496 497 508 522 555 555 517 500 487 498 511 527 530 533

Change 1 11 14 33 0 -38 -17 -13 11 13 16 3 3

% Change 0.20% 2.21% 2.76% 6.32% 0.00% -6.9%-

3.29%-

2.60% 2.26% 2.61% 3.13% 0.57% 0.57%


43


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

100

200

300

400

500

600

Meadow Hill Middle School: 6-8th Total Enrollment

Washington Middle School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

6 229 206 239 207 215 243 229 214 247 230 235 233 230 230

7 206 228 201 238 206 214 242 228 213 246 229 234 232 229

8 208 206 216 201 237 205 212 240 226 211 244 227 232 230

Total: 6-8 643 640 656 646 658 662 683 682 686 687 708 694 694 689

Total: 6-8 643 640 656 646 658 662 683 682 686 687 708 694 694 689

Change -3 16 -10 12 4 21 -1 4 1 21 -14 0 -5

% Change -0.5% 2.50%-

1.52% 1.86% 0.61% 3.17% -0.2% 0.59% 0.15% 3.06% -2.0% 0.00% -0.7%


44


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Washington Middle School: 6-8th Total Enrollment

Hellgate High School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

9 340 319 293 321 297 351 303 314 355 334 312 361 336 343

10 285 326 317 298 318 294 347 300 311 351 331 315 365 339

11 296 289 299 322 292 312 288 340 294 305 344 324 309 358

12 323 271 284 302 319 289 309 285 337 291 302 341 321 306

Total: 9-12 1,244 1,205 1,193 1,243 1,226 1,246 1,247 1,239 1,297 1,281 1,289 1,341 1,331 1,346

Total: 9-12 1,244 1,205 1,193 1,243 1,226 1,246 1,247 1,239 1,297 1,281 1,289 1,341 1,331 1,346

Change -39 -12 50 -17 20 1 -8 58 -16 8 52 -10 15

% Change -3.1% -1.0% 4.19% -1.4% 1.63% 0.08% -0.6% 4.68% -1.2% 0.62% 4.03% -0.8% 1.13%


45


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Hellgate High School: 9-12th Total Enrollment

Big Sky High School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

9 283 294 295 311 328 376 367 452 406 398 353 445 437 431

10 275 295 285 281 305 321 368 360 443 398 390 351 443 435

11 270 289 280 261 267 290 305 350 342 421 378 371 333 421

12 249 267 281 272 251 256 278 293 336 328 404 363 356 320

Total: 9-12 1,077 1,145 1,141 1,125 1,151 1,243 1,318 1,455 1,527 1,545 1,525 1,530 1,569 1,607

Total: 9-12 1,077 1,145 1,141 1,125 1,151 1,243 1,318 1,455 1,527 1,545 1,525 1,530 1,569 1,607

Change 68 -4 -16 26 92 75 137 72 18 -20 5 39 38

% Change 6.31% -0.4% -1.4% 2.31% 7.99% 6.03% 10.4% 4.95% 1.18% -1.3% 0.33% 2.55% 2.42%


46


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Big Sky High School: 9-12th Total Enrollment

Seeley-Swan High School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

9 30 25 25 22 22 26 29 27 26 24 24 24 26 26

10 24 28 22 17 19 19 23 26 24 23 21 23 23 25

11 23 26 26 22 17 19 19 23 25 24 23 21 23 23

12 30 23 27 27 22 17 19 19 23 26 24 23 21 23

Total: 9-12 107 102 100 88 80 81 90 95 98 97 92 91 93 97

Total: 9-12 107 102 100 88 80 81 90 95 98 97 92 91 93 97

Change -5 -2 -12 -8 1 9 5 3 -1 -5 -1 2 4

% Change -4.7% -2.0% -12% -9.1% 1.25% 11.1% 5.56% 3.16% -1.0% -5.2% -1.1% 2.20% 4.30%


47


2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-290

20

40

60

80

100

120

Seeley-Swan High School: 9-12th Total Enrollment

Sentinel High School: Total Enrollment

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

9 322 290 333 339 274 329 372 336 327 302 314 310 332 329

10 328 321 292 342 337 273 327 370 334 325 300 312 308 330

11 310 308 320 306 337 332 269 322 364 329 320 296 307 303

12 249 302 298 291 300 330 325 264 316 357 322 314 290 301

Total: 9-12 1,209 1,221 1,243 1,278 1,248 1,264 1,293 1,292 1,341 1,313 1,256 1,232 1,237 1,263

Total: 9-12 1,209 1,221 1,243 1,278 1,248 1,264 1,293 1,292 1,341 1,313 1,256 1,232 1,237 1,263

Change 12 22 35 -30 16 29 -1 49 -28 -57 -24 5 26

% Change 0.99% 1.80% 2.82% -2.4% 1.28% 2.29% -0.1% 3.79% -2.1% -4.3% -1.9% 0.41% 2.10%


48


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Sentinel High School: 9-12th Total Enrollment

49

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