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Research Analysts

Dharmesh Shah

[email protected]

Pabitro Mukherjee

[email protected]

Nitin Kunte, CMT

[email protected]

Vinayak Parmar

[email protected]

Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT

[email protected]

Monthly Technical Strategy

Bulls rejuvenated; Nifty to scale 12200…

June 2019

May 20, 2019

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Technical Outlook..

May 20, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Bulls rejuvenated; Nifty to scale 12200…

NSE Nifty Weekly Bar Chart

The Nifty respected key support threshold of 11000 in May and

staged a strong comeback as markets cheered the stable Central

government as predicted by the exit polls of Lok Sabha elections.

During the past three General Elections we observed, the Nifty

exhibits a robust performance (minimum 15%) for the rest of the

year once anxiety around election settles down, which corroborates

the bullish price structure and makes us confident that index would

extend ongoing up move towards 12200 in coming months. On the

downside, we do not expect May lows of 11100 being breached. As

highlighted by our sectoral model, we advise investors to focus on

accumulating cyclical stocks.

Nifty midcap, small cap is on the cusp of recording a ‘Golden Cross’

on the daily chart as 50 days SMA is on the verge of crossing over

200 days moving average for the first time since April 2018,

indicating a major shift in trend direction which makes us reinforce

our positive stance on the broader market space

Resistance @ 12200

Sectors likely to outperform on Relative Strength Model

On the sectoral front, we expect cyclicals to outperform whereas

consumption is likely to offer favourable risk-reward set up.

Banking maintained its leadership profile with improvement in

relative score, while Real estate gained on relative score despite

drop in momentum readings and inched further in Outperformer

basket. Capital goods sector has seen improvisation in its

momentum and relative performance score and expected to

outperform

Consumption sector including discretionary offers favourable risk-

reward setup given its strong price structure

Relative Rotation Graph Projection: Cyclicals to outperform

retraced

65%

retraced

67%

retraced

61.8%

----

----

P

ote

nti

al R

etu

rns (

%)

---

----

-

-5

-10

-15

-20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 4 5

-------- Technical Ranking --------

3

Returns RankingReturns Ranking

Returns Ranking RankingReturns

Bargain Buy

Metals

Outperformers

Banks, Capital

goods, Realty

Market Performers

Consumption, Oil &

Gas, IT,

Neutral

Auto, Pharma

* Ranking improves from 1 to 5

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Election Year: Cyclicals to drive post election…

In two out of three occasions, the markets behaved indecisively five

months prior to elections. In contrast, throughout the past three

elections, both Nifty and Nifty 500 indices exhibited a robust

performance seven months post the election phase with average

returns of 27% and 33%, respectively

During all three election years, pharma & BFSI have remained

positive whereas auto, capital goods, construction and infra sectors

have relatively outperformed during an election year

During seven months post elections, all

sectors performed and clocked double

digit gains

May 20, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity ResearchSource: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Among defensives, FMCG and pharma have

relatively outperformed five months prior to

elections. In contrast, consumer discretionary and

IT have outperformed seven months post elections

2

5 Months Pre -

Election

7 Months Post -

Election

5 Months Pre -

Election

7 Months Post -

Election

5 Months Pre -

Election

7 Months Post -

Election

Index Nifty -8 22 26 43 13 15

Index Nifty 500 -6 26 23 53 14 21

Cyclical Auto & Components -12 45 16 120 28 80

Cyclical BFSI 0 46 5 70 20 43

Cyclical Capital Goods -12 67 6 89 23 44

Cyclical Cement -2 67 10 69 33 53

Cyclical Construction and Infra -8 63 37 112 38 28

Cyclical Energy -11 36 52 58 22 14

Cyclical Metals -25 77 34 123 17 -1

Cyclical Power -14 52 37 45 13 16

Defensive Consumer discretionary -20 83 -5 106 20 36

Defensive FMCG -5 51 38 82 7 27

Defensive IT -27 55 9 119 8 34

Defensive Pharmaceuticals 1 39 28 89 11 31

SectorsSector's Nature

Sectoral Election Year Trend (Returns in %) Universe: Nifty 500

20142004 2009

Click here to go to top

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May 20, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

NSE (Nifty): 11800

11760

7894

o On expected lines, Nifty has

undergone secondary phase of

correction after witnessing elongated

up move of 18.5% during Dec- 18 to

Apr-19

o Index recorded faster retracement as

it retraced past thirteen sessions

decline in just three sessions,

suggesting robust price structure.

o Going ahead, we expect index to

resolve higher and head towards

12200 which is a 138.2% external

retracement of recent corrective

phase (11856 – 11108), placed at

12142

o The elongated up move with shallow

correction signifies a classical bull

market phenomenon. During ongoing

major up move (10005-11856), index

has not corrected more than 2/3 of

preceding up move. In current

scenario, Nifty found support from

61.8% of last up move (10585 –

11856), at 11070 which coincides

with lower band of upward sloping

channel (as shown in adjoining

chart), indicating crucial support in

the range of 11100-11000.

Weekly stochastic oscillator recorded bullish crossover, suggesting trend reversal

Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart

10005

10585

11171

9952

8968

Major support threshold at 11100 - 11000

as it is:-

61.8% retracement of (10585 to 11856)

placed at 11070

52 weeks EMA @11010

Lower band of upward sloping channel

10985

Technical Outlook

2Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

65%

11856

A classical bull market phenomenon signifies elongated

up move along with shallow corrections

6826

67%

61.8%

Resistance @ 12200

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Golden Cross signifies structural turnaround…

48 Months SMA

o The Nifty Midcap has formed a higher

base around 14 month’s cycle low

(16000) over past three months. The

formation of sequential higher lows at

long term average of 48 months

signifies buying demand at elevated

support area, auguring well for next leg

of up move

o Currently index is on the cusp of

recording a ‘Golden Cross’ on the daily

chart as 50 days SMA is on the verge

of crossing over 200 days moving

average for the first time since April

2018, indicating a major shift in trend

direction which makes us reinforce our

positive stance on the broader market

space

o The aforementioned observation

makes us believe, ongoing correction

will find its feet around 48 months

SMA (16450) and regain upward

momentum to surpass falling trend line

in coming months, signifying

conclusion of secondary corrective

phase on the larger degree charts

Nifty Midcap 100 – Monthly Bar ChartTechnical Outlook


14

Months

14

Months

14

Months

14

Months

Midcap 100 - Daily Bar Chart

Golden cross

Monthly stochastic oscillator inching northward, indicating positive bias

200 SMA

50 SMA

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Faster retracement augurs well for acceleration of up move….

28388

o The Bank Nifty after stupendous rally

of more than 13% in March 2019.

Witnessed consolidation in the last

six weeks in broad range of 28500-

30650, which has helped the index

work of the overbought condition and

form a higher base for the next leg of

up move

o Going ahead the index is expected to

move above its April all time high

(30669) and extend the up move

towards 32000 levels as it is the

161.8% extension of the previous

major up move of Nov’18 – Jan’19

(24404 to 27754) as projected from

Feb’19 low (26617)

o Index has already taken six weeks to

retrace just 50% of the previous six

weeks up move (26617-30648)

signalling robust price structure

o In current scenario, Bank Nifty found

support from 50% retracement of the

previous major up move (26617-

30669) and the previous breakout

area being the high of Aug’18

indicating crucial support in the range

of 28400-28600

Weekly MACD inching upward, taking support at its nine

periods average thus supports the positive bias

Bank Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart

20575

27652

17606

24404

26617

Major long term support at 28400-28600 as it is:

50% retracement of (26617-30008)

The previous breakout area being the high

of Aug’18

Trendline support joining previous lows

Target @ 32000Technical Outlook


23606

30669

27754

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Sectoral merry-go-round: Cyclicals to drive

o Banking maintained its leadership

profile with improvement in relative

score, while Real estate and oil &

gas sectors seen as new entrant in

Leading quadrant. Both Real estate

and oil & gas have gained on

relative score despite drop in

momentum readings. We believe

Banking and Realty is expected to

maintain Flag position

o Capital goods sector has seen

improvisation in its momentum and

relative performance score and now

on verge of entering Improving

quadrant. We believe, sector will

perform well within overall setup

o IT has retreated on relative front

while Healthcare has witnessed

deterioration on both, momentum

and relative performance.

Consumption has remained sticky

with its position in lagging quadrant

for third month now. We believe,

within defensive bets, Consumption

and IT will perform in tandem with

market

o Metal has maintained its position in

Improving space although lack of

momentum in this space may

remain for some time while Auto is

expected to remain a laggard

Outlook


Relative Rotation Graph – Month on Month

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Sectoral Indices – Relative to benchmarks

Relative Strength Comparative: Evaluating the underlying strength

• The index faced profit booking after hitting

fresh life highs during May 2019

• The RSC line continues to oscillate in a

range indicating breather in relative

outperformance

• Going ahead, we expect the technology

space to undergo period of consolidation

after March-April rally and form a higher

base around 15000 levels. On relative

front, sector is expected to remain market

performer

• Technically, TCS, Tech Mahindra remain

positive on the price structure front

• To closely gauge the underlying strength in the respective sectors vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a

comparative measure of strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector

• While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general market i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending market or going down less, in a down

trending market or even rising. While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may be even

going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line indicates in line market performance going up or

down by the same magnitude

• The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are outperforming and avoid sectors that are underperforming

Consolidation within structural up trend likely

NSE IT – Monthly Chart NSE IT Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison NSE IT Index

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• The index has maintained higher high-low

formation after bouncing from key long

term trend line support, indicating

resumption of up trend

• The RSC line, however, is languishing

around 0.50 levels where we may expect

it to bottom out and resume

outperformance in coming months

• Going ahead, we expect the capital goods

index to extend its rally towards 20000

levels leading to outperformance

• L&T, Kalpataru Power and KEC are looking

structurally positive on price charts

• The index held above 14000 levels on

expected lines and expected to rally

towards 16500-17000 levels in coming

month

• The RSC line bounced back from lower band

of rising channel, and is likely to see an

outperformance in coming months aided by

positive price structure

• Structurally, we expect OMCs to do well

with a tailwind from positive price structure

BSE Capital Goods – Monthly ChartBSE CG vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison BSE Capital goods Index

Index expected to challenge 16000 mark

BSE Oil & Gas – Monthly Chart BSE Oil & Gas IndexBSE Oil & Gas vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison

Relative ratio to bottom out

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• The index has undergone healthy

consolidation while maintaining higher

bottom formation, which augurs well for

structural up trend

• In relative terms, we expect the sector to

perform in tandem with benchmark

• Structurally, Hind Unilever, Marico, Dabur

are looking positive on price chart with

favourable risk-reward set up

• Among consumer discretionary space,

Havells, Voltas and Kajaria Ceramics are

looking structurally positive

• The index formed a higher bottom as it

retraced February March rally, making

market healthy

• The RSC line is seen pointing higher after

triple bottom indicating relative out

performance returning to space

• Going ahead, we expect the real estate

space to outperform backed by broad

based participation and volatility around

election results would offer incremental

buying opportunity

• Godrej Properties, Phoenix Mills, Brigade

enterprises and Sobha Developers are

looking structurally positive

Elongated consolidation augurs

well for structural up trend

On relative terms, sector likely to perform

at par with benchmark

Falling channel breakout augurs well

for structural up trend

NSE FMCG– Monthly Chart NSE FMCG Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison NSE FMCG Index

BSE Realty – Monthly Chart BSE Realty vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison BSE Realty Index

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• The Metal Index inched lower to retest its

key support placed near 10000 mark amid

concerns over trade war outcome

• The RSC line, continues to head south,

highlighting the relative underperformance

of the metals space

• Going ahead, we expect the Metal Index

to form a base while the ferrous space is

expected to do well and offers favourable

risk-reward. However, in relative terms,

the sector is likely to continue its

underperformance

• We like Tata Steel and Jindal Steel &

Power from risk-reward perspective

• The Pharma index witnessed selling

pressure and is headed to retest its

multiple bottoms around 8000 levels

indicating extended base formation

• The RSC line is still trending down

underscoring relative under performance of

the sector

• Going ahead, we expect the pharma space

to see an elongated base formation and

witness stock specific action.

• Stocks like Abbott, Suven Lifescience,

Hikal remain structurally positive while

Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma are expected to

underperform

Favourable risk-reward

Identical lows at

61.8% retracement

BSE Metal – Monthly Chart BSE Metal vs. Sensex– Relative Comparison BSE Metal Index

NSE Pharma– Monthly Chart NSE Pharma Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison NSE Pharma Index

Relative underperformance to continue

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• The index continues to remain in a well

defined down trend defined by lower high-

low sequence. As a result on relative front,

sector continues to under perform

• The decline over past fifteen months has

led index to approach its 2016 lows formed

during demonetization with extreme

oversold readings on oscillators. With a

weak price structure and oversold

readings, we expect the sector to trade in

a range and relatively under perform while

technical pull backs are not ruled out

• We expect Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp

to offer a favourable risk reward and likely

to pose a technical pullback

BSE Auto – Monthly Chart BSE Auto vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison BSE Auto Index

Relative under performance to continue

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Forthcoming Economic Event Calendar

May 20, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity ResearchSource: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Date Event Date Event

US China

3-Jun Markit US Manufacturing PMI 3-Jun Caixin China PMI Mfg

5-Jun Markit US Services PMI 5-Jun Caixin China PMI Composite

5-Jun Markit US Composite PMI 9-Jun New Yuan Loans CNY

7-Jun Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 14-Jun Retail Sales YoY

12-Jun CPI MoM/YoY 18-Jun New Home Prices MoM

14-Jun Industrial Production MoM 18-Jun Industrial Production YTD YoY

19-Jun FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 20-Jun FX Net Settlement - Clients CNY

30-Jun GDP Annualized QoQ 27-Jun Industrial Profits YoY

30-Jun PCE Deflator MoM 30-Jun Swift Global Payments CNY

30-Jun U. of Mich. Sentiment 30-Jun Manufacturing PMI

India UK

3-Jun Nikkei India PMI Mfg 3-Jun Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA

5-Jun Nikkei India PMI Services 4-Jun Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI

6-Jun RBI Reverse Repo Rate 10-Jun Manufacturing Production MoM

12-Jun IIP/CPI YoY 10-Jun Industrial Production YoY

14-Jun Wholesale Prices YoY 20-Jun Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM

30-Jun GDP YoY 23-Jun CBI Retailing Reported Sales

30-Jun Fiscal Deficit INR Crore 30-Jun GfK Consumer Confidence

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Notes to RRG Charts......

May 20, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 14

In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of various sectors of the BSE relative to the

Sensex with the y-axis plotting the relative price momentum and the x-axis plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four quadrants. The details of each quadrants has been

explained in the notes at the end of the report.

Leadership quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum vis-à-vis the Sensex.

Weakening quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has started to deteriorate and momentum has started to slow.

Lagging quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has become negative with momentum suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.

Improving quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where the relative price trend of the sector has started to rise with momentum.

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]


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We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the

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