national weather service arkansas-red basin river forecast center drought briefing 10/24/2014 jeff...

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National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service Coordination Hydrologist

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Page 1: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

National Weather ServiceArkansas-Red Basin River Forecast

Center

Drought Briefing 10/24/2014

Jeff McMurphySenior Hydrologist – ABRFC

James PaulService Coordination Hydrologist

Page 2: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center180-Day Observed Precipitation

Page 3: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center180-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Page 4: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast CenterYear to Date Observed Precipitation

As of 10/23/14

Page 5: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast CenterYear to Date Percent of Normal Precipitation

Page 6: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast CenterYear to Date Departure from Normal

Precipitation (-8” to -12”)

Page 7: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service
Page 8: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service
Page 9: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service
Page 10: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Slightly Warm Sea Surface Temps

Page 11: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts a weak El Niño starting during November and lasting through mid 2015.

Page 12: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service
Page 13: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service
Page 14: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service
Page 15: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

Climate Prediction CenterThree Month Precipitation/Temperature

Outlooks

Page 16: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

El Nino Events of the Past

Page 17: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

ABRFC website: www.weather.gov/abrfc

Page 18: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

ABRFC website: www.weather.gov/abrfc

Page 19: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

ABRFC website: www.weather.gov/abrfc

Page 20: National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service

National Weather ServiceArkansas-Red Basin River Forecast

Center

Drought Briefing 10/24/2014

Jeff McMurphySenior Hydrologist – ABRFC

James PaulService Coordination Hydrologist