National Weather Service

FY 2002 Annual Operating Plan

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

October 11, 2001

Agenda

• FY 2001 Milestone Summary

• Budget/Resource Information

• FY 2002 Milestones

• Management Information

• Information Technology Expenditures

FY 2001 Milestone Summary

• 43 of 45 FY 2001 Milestones completed

• FY 2001 Milestones not completed– Make IIDA product available to the FAA and airlines

• Planned for completion in 1st Quarter 2002• Aviation Weather Technology Transfer Board to decide

operational status in November 2001– Establish technology infusion group at World Weather

Building for climate modeling services• Dropped• GFDL resources are not available

FMC Budget/Resource Information

• FY 2001 allocation with FY 2002 labor inflation: $42.06M

• FY 2002 FTE Level: 375

Main Goals

• Address Seamless Suite of Products– Collaborative Forecast Process– Chat Room

• Capitalize on Investment in IBM SP/IT– Model enhancements– Communications enhancements

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Deliver Better Products and Services– Make the Day 3 Convective Outlook operational,

by issuing the text and probability graphic via AWIPS. SPC – 1st Quarter

– Provide experimental winter weather products and services through collaborative forecast process with ER. HPC – 1st Quarter

– Implement Flood Potential Outlook operationally. HPC – 1st Quarter

– Provide Heat Index product suite for Days 4-7. HPC – 3rd Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Deliver Better Products and Services– Further automate the Collaborative Surface

analysis project. HPC/MPC/TPC – 3rd Quarter– Create an operational ADDS. AWC – 4th Quarter– Collaborate with the Southern Region in holding a

National Severe Thunderstorm Workshop for a mixed audience of emergency managers and weathercasters. SPC – 3rd Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances– Implement 12 km Eta forecast system for North

American domain. EMC – 1st Quarter– Implement new version of GFDL hurricane

forecast model designed to be consistent with improved resolution global forecast system. EMC – 2nd Quarter

– Implement T254/L60 (55 km) global forecast system. EMC – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances– Implement non-hydrostatic 8 km Mesoscale

Threats model for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. EMC – 2nd Quarter

– Implement high resolution wave forecast model for the West Coast, including Hawaii. EMC – 4th Quarter

– Implement WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure into Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Threats model run. EMC – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances– Implement weekly global ocean data assimilation

system for climate forecasting. EMC – 3rd Quarter

– Implement Pacific Ocean coupled atmosphere-ocean model for seasonal forecasting. EMC – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances– Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• Implement JCSDA community fast radiative transfer model in NCEP global data assimilation system. EMC – 3rd Quarter

• Initiate AIRS assessment. EMC – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances– Establish and complete first year activities for

USWRP sponsored hurricane test bed, including facilitating transition to operations of qualifying FY01 and FY02 projects. TPC – 4th Quarter

– Generate and verify experimental in-house 4 and 5 day tropical cyclone forecasts. TPC – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Exercise Global Leadership– Begin production of mid-level (10,000 - 25,000 ft)

aviation chart for South America in support of ICAO and IATA aviation needs. AWC – 2nd Quarter

– Enhance and conduct a Regional Area IV workshop on hurricane forecasting and warning for meteorologists from English, Spanish, French and Dutch speaking countries. TPC – 2nd Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Exercise Global Leadership– Conduct a hurricane awareness tour to Caribbean

countries and Mexico with emphasis on outreach and public education about NHC warning program. TPC – 3rd Quarter

– Host 18 meteorologists from Latin America, Saudi Arabia and Africa at International Training Desks. HPC/CPC – 4th Quarter

– Promote regional model-based short-range ensemble forecasting internationally – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Change the NWS Organizational Culture– Develop an individual development plan for each

AWC employee. AWC – 4th Quarter– Develop a student intern program with the

University of Oklahoma to give minorities, females, and those with disabilities NWS experience before graduation. SPC – 2nd Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Manage NWS Resources– Recommend a facility location for the Central

Computing System. NCO – 2nd Quarter – Award contract for the next Central Computer

System NCO – 3rd Quarter – Begin Installation of next Central Computer

System. NCO – 4th Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Manage NWS Resources– Implement end-to-end redundancy in the NCEP

local and wide area networks. NCO – 2nd Quarter– Extend the secure NCEP network architecture to

encompass the remote centers. NCO – 3rd Quarter

– Install, test and, if successful, implement four-headed LINUX workstation. AWC – 2nd Quarter

NCEP FY 2002 Milestones

• Manage NWS Resources– Implement NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural

Weather Facility end state staffing - reduce CPC on-site staff at USDA from four to two with no degradation of service to USDA. CPC – 4th Quarter

Management Information

Diversity

• Survey Feedback Action (SFA) for 2002 will be released shortly after the new year.– To be administered via the Web (facilitates

participation by shift-workers)

• NCEP plans to participate fully in SFA 2002.

Management Information

Affirmative Action/EEO

• NCEP plans to continue its relationship with GoHFAS, to identify a pool of minority and women candidates for NWS employment.

Management Information

Minority Serving Institutions

• In FY 02, NOAA and the National Weather Service will establish an Atmospheric Cooperative Science Center at Howard University, a Minority Service Institute. NCEP will work with Howard University to develop research and training opportunities for Howard’s Atmospheric Science faculty and students.

Management Information

Environmental Compliance

• No Environmental Compliance and Safety Assessments at NCEP centers in 2001.

• In FY2002 will develop training modules for NCEP based upon the the 32 Safety and Health Standards listed in the Engineering Handbook 15.

• Will expand the safety video library and ensure availability 24 hours per day.

• Will ensure information is shared with outlying NCEP Centers.

Management Information

Organizational Issues

• Location selection process for new computer

Information Technology Expenditures

• Available 10/12/01