UCACN Model Advisory Committee: Kickoff Meeting

Dr. William M. LapentaDirector, National Centers for Environmental PredictionNOAA/National Weather Service13 April 2015

National Weather Service 2

Outline

Outline

THANKS to all UMAC Members!!!!

Background and Motivation

Production Suite and the Supercomputer

Expectations from the UMAC

National Weather Service

NWS Strategic Goals• Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision

Support Services

• Improve Water Forecasting Services

• Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks

• Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity

• Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems

• Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission

NWS Strategic Outcome:Weather-Ready Nation

NWS Strategic Outcome:Weather-Ready Nation

Prediction is what makes NOAA/NWS unique and indispensable!3

Operational numerical guidance:

Foundational tools to used to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that

drive U.S. economic growth

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Climate Modeling and Prediction

National Earth System Prediction Capability

North American Multi-Model Ensemble

Next Generation Global Prediction System

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

Hi-Impact Weather Prediction Project

Warn on Forecast

Storm Surge Roadmap

National Air Quality Forecast Capability

Tsunami Modeling and Research

Space Weather Modeling

Ecological Forecasting

Integrated Water Resources Science and Services

Map NOAA Projects with Modeling into the Weather Ready Nation

NWS Strategic Goals• Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision

Support Services

• Improve Water Forecasting Services

• Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks

• Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity

• Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems

• Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission

Sector-Relevant = Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Coastal

Feedback: Model Requirements and Pre-Implementation Assessments

Requirements definition• Identified as a weakness by NCEP

stakeholders• incomplete requirements may create false

expectations• NWS needs an improved process—is

portfolio management the answer?

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Stakeholders--- need earlier access to information• What changes are being made?• What’s the rational?• What characteristics of the tool will change?• Stakeholder calibration methods need time and access to

pre-implementation data in order to adapt (i.e., GEFS FY15 Upgrade)

• 30-day NCO parallel insufficient for customer assessment

IMPROVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN MODEL DEVELOPERS AND STAKEHOLDERS

National Weather Service

Current Status of SupercomputerCurrent Status of Supercomputer

Key Milestones:

• May 2014: 3km HWRF (Hurricane-Weather Research & Forecasting) model upgraded – best hurricane model in the world.

• Sept 2014: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational – 3km every hr.

• Jan 2015: Global Forecast System (GFS) upgraded – 13km out to 10d.

• Upcoming Model Upgrades:• HWRF• SREF• GEFS• DA/GFS/4D ENKF• HRRR (HRRRe)

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Goal: Increase HPC capacity from 776teraFLOPs in January 2015 to 2.5petaFLOPs (for primary and backup, respectively – for a total of 5 PF) by

the end of CY 2015.

Tera

FLO

P pe

r ope

ratio

nal s

yste

m ECMWF

1796

Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Mar

itim

e

Mar

itim

e

Life

& P

rope

rty

Life

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Env

iron

men

t

Env

iron

men

t

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

ol

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

ol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Com

mer

ce

Com

mer

ce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fire

Wea

ther

Fire

Wea

ther

Hea

lthH

ealth

Avi

atio

n

Avi

atio

n• North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Climate Forecast System

• Short-Range Ensemble

• Global Forecast System

• North American Mesoscale

• Rapid Refresh

• Dispersion (smoke)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System

• Regional Hurricane• (HWRF & GFDL)

• Waves • Global Ocean• Space Weather

Spanning Weather and Climate

• Tsunami• Whole

Atmosphere• NMME• NSWPS

• Bays• Storm Surge

• Global Dust

• Fire Wx

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• Air Quality

• Wave Ensemble• Land DA

• HRRR

Regional Hurricane

GFDLWRF-NMM

WRF(ARW, NMMB, NMM)

Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (December 2014)

GFS, MOM4,NOAH, Sea Ice

North American Ensemble Forecast System

GEFS, Canadian Global Model

Dispersion HYSPLIT

Air QualityCMAQ

Regional NAMNMMBNOAH

3D-V

AR

DA

Regional Bays• Great Lakes (POM)• N Gulf of Mexico

(FVCOM)• Columbia R. (SELFE)• Chesapeake (ROMS)

• Tampa (ROMS)• Delaware (ROMS)

• San Francisco (FVCOM)

SpaceWeather

ENLIL8

North American Land Surface Data Assimilation

SystemNOAH Land Surface Model

Global SpectralNOAH

3D-E

n-Va

rDA

Global Forecast System (GFS)

3D-V

AR

DA

3D-V

AR

DA

WRF ARW

Rapid Refresh

3D-V

AR

DA

WavesWaveWatch III

Ocean HYCOM

Ecosystem EwE

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)21 GFS Members

ESTOFSADCIRC

SURGESLOSH

P-SURGESLOSH

WRF ARW3D-V

AR

DA

High Resolution RRNEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC)

GFS & GOCART

WRF(ARW, NMMB)

High Res Windows

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24-h Cycle 29 December 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

No

de

s

Time of Day (UTC)00 06 12 18 00

SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast)

HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)

GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System)GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System)

NAM (North American Mesoscale)

CFS (Climate Forecast System)

WW3 (Wave Watch III)RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System)

RAP (Rapid Refresh)

HRW (High Res Window)

Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.208Pf)

GFS

NAM

SREF

HRRR

GEFS

RTOFS

WavesHiRESW

CFS

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Phase 1: Computational Cost of Production Suite Components

% utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period

Acronym ComponentHRRR High Resolution Rapid RefreshNAM North American ModelSREF Short Range Ensemble ForecastCFS Climate Forecast SystemGEFS Global Ensemble Forecast SystemHiRESW High Resolution WindowsGFS Global Forecast SystemMAG Model & Analysis GraphicsWAV WAVEWATCH IIIprodser COMMS OverheadRTOFS Real Time Ocean Forecast SystemRAP Rapid RefreshGWVENS Global Wave EnsembleRDAS Reagional Data Assimilation SystemGDAS Global Data Assimilation SystemFVS Forecast Verification System

Regional Systems45% of total

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24-h Cycle 03 April 2015

Nu

mb

er

of

No

de

s

Time of Day (UTC)00 06 12 18 00

Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.21 Pf) + Phase 2 (Capacity ~ 0.55Pf)

GFS NAMSREF

GEFS

RTOFSGWVENSHiRESW

CFS

RAP

HRRR

Phase 2

Phase 1

SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast)

HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)

GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System)GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System)

NAM (North American Mesoscale)

CFS (Climate Forecast System)

GWVENS (Global Wave Ensemble)RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System)

RAP (Rapid Refresh)

HRW (High Res Window)

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Phase 1: Computational Cost of Production Suite Components

% utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period

Acronym ComponentHRRR High Resolution Rapid RefreshNAM North American ModelSREF Short Range Ensemble ForecastCFS Climate Forecast SystemGEFS Global Ensemble Forecast SystemHiRESW High Resolution WindowsGFS Global Forecast SystemMAG Model & Analysis GraphicsWAV WAVEWATCH IIIprodser COMMS OverheadRTOFS Real Time Ocean Forecast SystemRAP Rapid RefreshGWVENS Global Wave EnsembleRDAS Reagional Data Assimilation SystemGDAS Global Data Assimilation SystemFVS Forecast Verification System

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Commonly asked Questions: Production Suite Evolution

Global systems increase horizontal & vertical resolution• GFS satisfies NAM requirements (GFS to 13km @ day 10—Jan 2015)• GEFS satisfies SREF requirements (GEFS to 27km @ day 8—Spring 2015)• GEFS reforecasts a new requirement (Maintain current GEFS for 1-year)

Regional systems shift to convection permitting ensembles• HRRRE to satisfy WOF & NAM requirements (GSI, ARW and NMM)

Emerging requirements at weeks 3 & 4 and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S)

• Coupled GEFS extended to 30-days + reforecasts • Improve CFS for sub-seasonal to seasonal• Operationalize the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

Coordinate other components of the production suite• Hydrologic• Space weather• Ecological • Arctic

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UMAC Expectations: NCEP Director Perspective

First time with NOAA model developers, customers and external subject matter experts on modeling in the same room.

Outcome: a set of recommendations that will be used to build a strategy to evolve the NPS over the next 5-10 years

UMAC outcomes will inform:• The integrated NOAA modeling strategy• Priorities for NOAA funded research in modeling across line offices

• AO’s will allow external participation in research and development• Joint projects with NOAA scientists will be encouraged• External community becomes part of the development team• Involved in test plan development, execution and analysis (HWRF)

• Enable NOAA to have a robust modeling program designed to meet agency mission

Allows NOAA to step back and assess strategic evolution of the production suite