NDPA Overview Slides

September 4, 2020

Justin J KringstadGeological Engineer

Director

North Dakota Pipeline Authority

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Bakken & Three Forks Formations

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Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation

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Monthly Oil & Gas Production Change

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Holding Aug. 2020 Oil Constant at 1.23MMBPD (est.)Answering the question, “How many well completions to hold oil production flat?”

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Below Curve: Oil Production Dropping

Above Curve: Oil Production Increasing

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Base Decline Challenges

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March to June 75+% M-O-M Oil Drop

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May & June ComparisonJune 2020May 2020

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Vintage Year of Shut-In Wells – June 2020

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Wells Most Likely to Return Quickly? (May)

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1,881 Wells (28%)

WOR: 2 or Lower

BOPD: 50+

Total: 356,816 BOPD (70+%)

Shut-In

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GOR Decrease From Returning Curtailed Wells

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Well Selection Criteria

Production Days in May: 0-1 Days

March Oil Production: >1 BOPD

June Oil Production: >1 BOPD

Pool: Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish

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EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

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Shut-In Assumptions: EIA Price Deck

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ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

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ND Completions: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

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Base & High Cases

Low Case

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ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck

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Monthly Completion Scenarios: Crude Oil

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Monthly Completion Scenarios: Wellhead Gas

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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD

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Showing DAPL Outage

Unlikely Near Term

Scenario with Recent

Court Decisions

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NDPA Production Forecast and Rail Transportation

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NDPA Base Case Oil Production Forecast (Green)

Pipeline Capacity Shortfall (Grey):

“Need” to Rail

Rail History (Red):

Exceeds “Need” - Delta Considered “Elective/Market Driven”

Assu

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AP

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erv

ice S

ep

2021

Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation

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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes

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Rail Destinations Market Share (May 2020)

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Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration

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Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

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ND Gas Production: EIA Price Deck

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Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

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Solving the Flaring Challenge

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Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

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Gas Processing Capacity & Future OutlookAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

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Historical

Historical

Expected

Expected

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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

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Historical Expected

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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

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Historical Expected

9%

24%

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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

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Historical Expected

9%

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Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

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Major Gas Pipeline and

Processing Infrastructure

WBI Transmission

Whiting

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Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure

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Northern Border Pipeline

*Data Source: Northern Border

Northern Border BTU at Glen Ullin, ND

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 42*Data Source: Northern Border

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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Known BTU Limits

NGPL: 1,065Midwestern:

1,100

Vector: 1,100Guardian: 1,100

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NB Pipeline Interconnects With BTU Limits > 1,100

NNG:

No Limit

ANR: 1,200

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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Ability to Add Limits

Horizon:

Ability to

Post Upper

Limit

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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*

*Includes Updated Tariff Timeline to 1,100

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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*

*Assumes Equivalent Net Replacement of 1,035 Canadian Gas

Does Not Include Market Based

Pairing Expenses

Est. Annual

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BTU Calculations to Meet Proposed 1,100 BTU Spec.Approximate Q1-20 BTU Breakdown Demo Pairing Exercise to Meet 1,100 or Less*

*Exact plant specifications are not publicly available and many assumptions

needed to be made for demo pairing. Table may contain errors.

Regional NGL Infrastructure

Kinder

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Ma

rath

on

Pe

tro

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NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options

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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority

600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840

Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820

E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com

Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov

www.northdakotapipelines.com

Contact Information

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