new hampshire housing is a self-supporting public benefit corporation established by the state...
TRANSCRIPT
New Hampshire Housing is a self-supporting public benefit corporation established by the state legislature. We administer a broad range of programs designed to assist low and moderate income persons and families with obtaining decent, safe and affordable housing.
New Hampshire’s population growth is slowing down, with fewer new migrants
Job growth is slow and job quality is poor Elders are an increasingly larger share of owners and renters Young home buyers are challenged by slower economic growth
and stricter lending standards Recent trend away from ownership and towards rental housing Dichotomy of NH growth means different regions have different
problems General public, town officials and business are not aware of issues
affecting NH’s housing
Housing Needs in New Hampshire
A recently completed three part study of New Hampshire’s housing needs and preferences in light of our changing demographics. Prepared for NHHFA by the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies.
Based on Current Population Projections Growth Remains Slow….
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2000
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
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ang
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Population Count
Male Female
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2005
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
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ang
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Population Count
Male Female
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2010
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
e R
ang
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Population Count
Male Female
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2015
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
e R
ang
e
Population Count
Male Female
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2020
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
e R
ang
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Population Count
Male Female
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2025
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
e R
ang
e
Population Count
Male Female
New Hampshire Population By Age in 2030
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 to 4 yrs5 to 9 yrs
10 to 14 yrs15 to 19 yrs20 to 24 yrs25 to 29 yrs30 to 34 yrs35 to 39 yrs40 to 44 yrs45 to 49 yrs50 to 54 yrs55 to 59 yrs60 to 64 yrs65 to 69 yrs70 to 74 yrs75 to 79 yrs80 to 84 yrs85 yrs plus
Ag
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Population Count
Male Female
…And We Continue to Age
New Hampshire Job Growth Has Also Slowed
Annual job growth in New Hampshire has been less than 1% each year since the end of the recession. By comparison, Massachusetts has grown at about 1.4% in each of the past three years.
The Quality of New Hampshire Employment Has Changed
Average annual employment in Manufacturing declined by 35% between 2000 and 2013, while employment in Education and Health Services increased by 28% and Leisure and Hospitality increased by 11%.
In 2005 after more than a decade of economic growth the home ownership rate in New Hampshire had reached a peak of 73%, with renter households making up the remaining 27%. Since then the ownership rate has declined slightly.
The Home Ownership Rate in New Hampshire Remains High
The growth in renter households in New Hampshire has been significant in recent years, growing by nearly 13% since 2005, after declining by 5% between 2000 and 2005.
But, Recent Growth Has Been in Renter Households
65% of households age 35 to 44 are owners, 77% of households 45 to 54 are owners, and more than 80% of households age 55 to 74 are owners. For Households 75 to 84 the percent of owners declines slightly to 77%. But, even for households 85 and over, the ownership rate is 61%.
After Age 34 New Hampshire Households Have Predominantly Been Owners, And Will Remain Mostly Owners
Into Old Age
Between 2010 and 2025, age 65 and older households, both owners and renters, experience strong growth; but, remain a minority of all households.
Near Future Production Needs Vary Dramatically by County
The number of home sales has slowed seasonally, but total sales for 2013 increased 11.5% from 2012.
New Hampshire Home Prices are Again Showing Signs of Appreciation
Median Purchase Price in 2013Less Than $100,000
$100,000 to $150,000
$150,000 to $175,000
$175,000 to $200,000
$200,000 to $225,000
More than $225,000
The median purchase price is highest in Rockingham County, and lowest in Coos County.
63 percent of owner occupied housing units in the state are in Hillsborough, Rockingham and Merrimack Counties.
Coos$92,500
Grafton$190,000
Carroll$180,000
Merrimack$202,500
Cheshire$162,500
Hillsborough$225,000
Sullivan$145,000
Rockingham$267,000
Belknap$169,900
Strafford$200,000
7.5 Mo.
County Inventory Months
Rockingham 5.2Hillsborough 5.5Strafford 6.7Merrimack 7.9Cheshire 9.6Belknap 10.1Carroll 10.9Grafton 11.1Sullivan 12.0Coos 23.5
While showing some improvement since the end of the recession, construction activity remains at about 38% of the level a decade ago.
New Home Construction Remains Low
New home sales which accounted for as much as 18% of the market in 2004 and 2005, accounted for less than 8% of all sales in 2012 and 2013.
And New Home Sales Account for Only a Small Portion of All Sales
The number of purchase mortgages in 2013 increased over the prior two years due to improving market conditions and a release of some pent-up demand. With slowly rising interest rates, refinance mortgages have been declining since the 2nd quarter of 2013.
Source: Real Data Corp.
Short term•Purchase mortgage activity continues to grow especially in the southern tier.
• Some pent-up demand, and cross border activity has returned. • The inventory of good quality homes is already limited in the south.• Refinance activity has declined significantly.
•Mortgage interest rates are at a 40+ year low, but are unlikely to remain there.
Mid term •Continued growth in purchase mortgage activity will require much stronger job growth and a return of the single family home construction.•Refinance activity will continue to decline as interest rates climb toward +/- 6%.
Long term•Demographics (the aging of the baby boom generation) and economic growth will determine what happens.
Mortgage Market
Affordability
Since 2009 the monthly PITI for the median priced home has been very close to the median gross rental cost for a three-bedroom unit. However, when the costs of utilities and maintenance are included in ownership, there remains an additional $400 to $500 monthly cost for ownership.
For Qualified Buyers it may be a good time to buy.
• Income is influenced by other assets and debts.• Equity in an existing home, savings, or other family assets can increase
affordability.
• Consumer debt, car loans, student loans and other financial obligations can
diminish affordability.
Affordability - Price, Income and Mortgage Terms
• Mortgage credit terms have more influence.• Credit score and down payment requirements can influence the interest rate and
may make credit unavailable.
• Mortgage insurance can add to debt and reduce affordability.
• Other factors also influence affordability.• Real Estate Taxes, Hazard Insurance, and Utility costs.
• Location / transportation or proximity to income.
The cumulative total of foreclosure deeds in 2013 was 26% below the total in 2012, and lower than the total in any year since 2007.
For New Hampshire, New England, and the US this 3rd quarter delinquency rate decline breaks the typical pattern of 3rd quarter increases for only the second time in recent years. However, this rate remains stubbornly high.
New Hampshire’s delinquency rate compares favorably with most other New England states.
At the current pace of foreclosure deed recordings, it could take nearly 12 months to clear this inventory, without any new foreclosure initiations.
2 Br 2 Br $1,076$1,076
All $1,018All $1,018
New Hampshire Housing Annual Rental Cost Survey
At $1,076 the stateside 2-bedroom median gross rent remains above the $1,000 mark for the eighth year in a row.
16% increase
Coos$657
Grafton$985 Carroll
$964
Merrimack$1064
Cheshire$1039
Hillsborough$1147
Rockingham$1224
Sullivan$925
Belknap$1005
Strafford$981
.
Monthly Median Gross Rental Cost
2013 Median Monthly Gross RentFor 2-Bedroom Units
Less than $800$800 to $1,000$1,000 to $1,100
More than $1,100
Rents are highest in the Southern Counties of the state, closest to the Boston labor market. Most of the rental units in the state (73%) are located in Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack and Strafford Counties
2013 Residential Rental Cost Survey
Preliminary Results
Statewide Median Gross Rent for 2-Bedroom Units - $1,076
What else does New Hampshire Housing do?
• Housing counseling and education programs. • Fixed-rate mortgage products to participating
lenders.• A variety of programs to assist low and
moderate income buyers.• REALTOR® and lender training statewide.• Over the last 30 years, we have helped more
than 38,000 families to purchase homes, contributing more than $200 million per year to the State’s real estate economy!
Home FlexFHA, VA or RD
0-point Home Flex Plus
0-point with 3% Cash Assistance
Home Preferred Conventional loanswith low mortgageinsurance premiums
• FHA 203ks• Repairs must add value• $35,000• 60 days for work
completion• NHHFA disburses• NEW disbursement
requirements effective with reservations as of 4/1/2014
• RD Purchase Rehab• Repairs must add value• $35,000• 60 days for work
completion• NHHFA disburses• NEW disbursement
requirements effective with reservations as of 4/1/2014
• Repairs must meet FHA and RD guidelines and loan amount calculations.• Appraisal must be done as if all work completed and the “as is” value must be
stated within the appraisal.
The Home Start Homebuyer Tax Credit makes homeownership more affordable for first-time homebuyers.
To qualify, eligible homebuyers must receive a Mortgage Credit Certificate (MCC) from New Hampshire Housing.
The Homebuyer Tax Credit can decrease the income taxes they owe and boost their take-home pay, which helps qualify for a mortgage and make mortgage payments.
The Homebuyer Tax Credit is not a one-time credit – it is an annual credit for the life of the original mortgage, as long as the home is the principal residence.
Calendar Year 2013
•Average family size – 2.3
•Average price -$156,400
•Average income-$56,000
•Average age – 37 years
•Average credit score – 710
•Lending in 131 different towns
www.GoNewHampshireHousing.com
• Homeownership market is recovering slowly as inventories
decrease and the economy continues to improve slowly.• The southern part of the state is strongest.
• Foreclosures are down as the economy and housing market
improve.• Lenders appear more willing to negotiate short sales.• Delinquencies continue to decline but are still historically
high.• Foreclosures will continue to moderate purchase price
increases and add pressure to the rental market.
• Rental costs have leveled at a high rate.• Vacancies remain low.• Some new production in the southern part of the
state.• A significant portion of rental households are cost
burdened.• The economy is improving slowly. Slow growth is
expected.• Demographic shifts will have a more significant impact
on the state’s housing market than growth.• In the next 10 to 15 years there will be significant
need for services and housing to satisfy the down-
sizing demand and aging in place.