Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
PLANS ARE USUALLY ASUME LINAR GROWTH
DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OFTHE FUTURE IN MIND
TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS ARE USUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME
MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSE ALL THE ENABLING FACTORS ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress (at today's rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil
Disruptive stress or opportunity
Growth of technology
Our view of the world
DISRUPTIVE STRESS
TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE TREATED BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT LAWS BECOME USELESS
DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY
NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO SO MANY PEOPLE
Is this evolution of technology good?
Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral
Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
Peter Diamandis
Why did smartwatches appear in 2014 when the idea came in the 50s