north american barometer haig stoddard, industry analyst, wardsauto wardsauto north american...
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North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
WardsAuto North American Barometer
(Short-Term Outlook: Q1 2016-Q2 2016)
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
WardsAuto 6-Month North American Outlook (Q1/Q2 2016 Industry Forecasts)
Sales-N.America (Yr/Yr % Change)
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North American Industry Sales Outlook
• Sales finish entire 2015 at an estimated 20.7 million
• Volume continues upward trend through first-half 2016.
• First-half 2016 sales increase 5% from like-2015
• Import share remains a long-time high
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North American Production OutlookProduction
Production Capacity Utilization
• Year-over-year gains slow in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 in part due to slowdowns for redesigns at some plants
• Flat Y/Y demand for cars also putting a damper on production gains
• Mostly due to trucks, capacity utilization continues to get tighter.
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
U.S. Sales Outlook• Initial model puts December
sales at a 17.6 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, or about 1.67 million units – could go higher
• After tracking at 17.8 million SAAR in second-half 2015, expect first-half 2016to run at 17.6 million, with volume up 5% from January-June 2015
Units in millions
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
• Economic growth in general: more jobs, including more youth entering workforce
• Pent-up demand from the recession• Low interest rates allowing longer finance
contracts, increased leasing• Fleet penetration up• Off-lease volumeIncreased incentives (though not out of hand right
now)Low fuel prices
What’s Driving U.S. Demand
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Incentives Had a Bigger Role in the Recent BoomMarket Penetration of New/Redesigned Vehicles vs. Incentive Activity
Incentive data is average incentives as a percent of average transaction prices. Source. TrueCar
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Brand Series ActionProduction
Source Manufacturer SegmentEstimated Sales Start
Honda Civic Redesign Canada/U.S. Honda Small Upper Nov 2015Mercedes GLC New Germany Daimler CUV Luxury Small Nov 2015Nissan Titan Redesign U.S. Nissan Pickup Large Dec 2015Chevrolet Malibu Redesign U.S. GM Middle Lower Jan 2016Toyota Prius Redesign Japan Toyota Middle Upper Feb 2016Buick Cascada New Poland GM Luxury Specialty Mar 2016Mercedes GLS New U.S. Daimler CUV Luxury Large Mar 2016Audi A4 Redesign Germany Volkswagen Luxury Lower Apr 2016Cadillac XT5 New U.S. GM CUV Luxury Middle Apr 2016Chevrolet Cruze Redesign U.S. GM Small Upper Apr 2016Infiniti Q30 New U.K. Nissan Middle Upper Apr 2016Jaguar XE New U.K. Tata Luxury Lower Apr 2016Kia Cadenza Redesign South Korea Kia Luxury Lower Apr 2016Mazda Mazda CX-9 Redesign Japan Mazda CUV Large Apr 2016Acura NSX New U.S. Honda Luxury Sport May 2016Lincoln Continental New U.S. Ford Luxury Middle Jun 2016Fiat 124 Spider New Japan Mazda Small Specialty Jun 2016
U.S. Sales Starts for New and Redesigned VehiclesSales penetration of fresh vehicles should increase in first-half 2016
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Declining Fuels Prices Pumping Demand Further
Falling prices at the pump added an estimated 300,000 units to the annual rate since July (17.9 million)
Already rising anyway, lower fuel prices are pushing up truck penetration a little faster
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
U.S. Inventory• Total inventory is well balanced with
demand, and can meet another “18 million” month
• Small Car inventory appears to be lagging but a lot of the recent sales gains in the segment appear to be fleet and/or incentive induced
• CUVs continue to suck the life out of midsize cars
• Large Cars have fallen to less than 2% of the market
• A few vehicles are responsible for y/y increase in luxury cars, but share down and luxury CUVs and SUVs pulling away share
• CUVs inventory in line; especially the hottest part of that segment group – import luxury versions
• Pickup inventory levels fine – year-ago volumes were too high
• Small (minivans and cargo) vans and Large Vans forging ahead
Nov. 30 Inventory and YTD Sales vs. Year-Ago
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Canada Sales Outlook
Units in thousands
• 2015 will be the third straight record year for Canada – sales forecast to end at 1.9 million units
• Anticipating a slowdown in growth by Q2 due to some headwinds – low oil prices among them - but still historically strong volumes
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Mexico Sales Outlook
Units in thousands
• Estimated sales in 2015 of 1.34 million units soared 18.5% from last year’s record volume
• Economic growth in 2016 is expected to largely mimic this year, and volume will increase again
• Low oil prices, corruption, among other red flags, could dampen the outlook
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesGeneral Motors Outlook
Market Share
Production
Capacity Utilization
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesFord Outlook
Market Share
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesToyota Outlook
Market Share
Production
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesFiat-Chrysler Outlook
Market Share Capacity Utilization
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesHonda Outlook
Market Share
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesNissan Outlook
Market Share
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North America SalesRest of Industry Outlook
Market Share
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Thank You,
Haig StoddardSenior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
• Powerful database and reporting tools to customize your output
• Scenario-building tool to consider different assumptions and their effects
FORECASTING TOOLS
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn [email protected] - 248-799-2642
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
• Global production covering 6 regions
• Eight-year planning window, updated monthly
• Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A.
VEHICLE FORECAST
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn [email protected] - 248-799-2642
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
• Realistic picture of powertrain volumes
• Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric
• Eight-year forecast, updated monthly
POWERTRAIN FORECAST
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn [email protected] - 248-799-2642
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
• All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly
• By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume
PRODUCT CYCLES
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn [email protected] - 248-799-2642
North American Barometer
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Talk with us today to learn howWardsAuto can help you
Lisa [email protected]
248-799-2642
Nakia [email protected]
248-799-2622