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World Vitiviniculture situation in 2012
O.I.V.2013
XXXVIth World Congress of Vine and Wine
Bucarest, 3rd June 2013
Federico CastellucciDirector General
State of the vitiviniculture world market 2012
�Surface area
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�Grape production & yield
�Wine
�Focus on wine trade
Surface area of vineyards
• Surface area of world vineyards
• European vineyards
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• European vineyards
• Southern Hemisphere & USA vineyards
• Asian vineyards
• Emerging vitiviniculture countries
Surface area of vineyards worldwide
7 900
8 100
8 300
1000 haWorld surface area under vines
62.5%
56.0%
Continental evolution area under vines
as % of global vineyard
2000-2012Europe
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Source: OIV
7528 mha is the total worldwide area under vines in 2012 (including the areas under vines not yet in production or harvested). Surface are of vineyards continued to decline at a lower rate than that of the previous years. Between 2000 and 2012 it has decreased of – 319 mha, this decrease is mainly due to the reduction of European vineyards.
7 300
7 500
7 700
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012
19.4%
22.7%
12%13%
4.3% 5.2%
2.0% 2.7%
2000 2012
Oceania
Africa
America
Asia
European vineyards
1500
2000
2500
3000
35001000 ha
Trends, 2000-2012
Portugal
Italy
France-12%
-15%
-3 %
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0
500
1000
1500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast
2012
France
Spain
-17%
-12%
Source: OIV
The period of 3 years (2008-2011) during which the EU offered permanent abandonment premiums for vineyards has ended: 2012 area under vines is the first in 4 campaigns that has not been marked by the influence of these premiums: 4216 mha (- 339.4 mha between 2007 and 2012).
Southern Hemisphere + USA vineyards
800
1000
1200
1400
1000 haTrends, 2000-2012
South Africa
New Zealand
Australia+21%
+168%+5%
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0
200
400
600
800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012
Australia
USA
Chile
Argentina
+10%
+18 %
-1%
Source: OIV
In the Southern Hemisphere and USA, new vine-planting has continued: a relatively moderate increase of 0.3% in comparison with 2011.
Asian vineyards
800
1000
1200
14001000 ha
Trends, 2000-2012
Iran+90%
-18%
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0
200
400
600
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast
2012
Iran
China
Turkey
-10%
+90%
Source: OIV
With 1705 mha areas under vines, Asia continues to see its vineyards growing: +12 % between 2000 and 2012 (+122 mha).
USA407 mha1%
China570 mha19%
Portugal Italy RomaniaFrance
Surface under vines 2012Evolution in % 2008-2012
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Chile205 mha4%
Argentina221 mha-2%
South Africa131mha-1%
Brazil91 mha-1%
New Zealand37 mha 7%
Australia169 mha-2%
Increase Stability Decrease
Portugal239 mha-3%
Italy769 mha-7%
Spain1018 mha-13%
Romania205 mha-1%
France800 mha-7%
Hungary64 mha-11%
Greece110 mha-4%
Turkey517 mha1%
Source: OIV
Surface area of vineyardshas grown by 5% and more in the last 5 years
Emerging vitiviniculture countries
20
40
60
80
100
120
1401000 ha
Area under vines: evolution
Peru
India
Brasil
Egypt
Canada
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In addition to a rapid growth of an overall planted area…grape production growth is particularly significant
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
Canada
Egypt
Brazil
India
Peru
Grape production: evolution 2000-2012
Growth rate
2000-2012
0
Source: OIV
These countries are getting more and more sensitive to the taste of wine
1000 hl
2007
Forecast
2012Variation
%
India 120 150 25%
Brazil 3254 3399 4%
Peru 683 809 19%
Wine consumption
Emerging vitiviniculture countries
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast 2012
1000 hl
Evolution of wine consumption
India
Brazil
Peru
Canada
Peru 683 809 19%
Canada 4018 4476 11%
Source: OIV
Global grape production & Yield
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Global grape production & Yield
Global grape production
800
1 000
Mql
World grapes production
62,5%
39,0%
Continental evolution grapes prouction
as % of global production
2000-2012Europe
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Source: OIV
In 2012 world production of grapes (691 Mql) decreased: - 23 Mql between 2011-2012. An increased trend in grape production (+7%/2000), despite decrease in area under vines : this can be explained in part by an increase in yields .
200
400
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast 2012
39,0%
19,4%
31,2%
12%
21%
4,3%6,3%
2,0% 2,7%
2000 2012
Oceania
Africa
America
Asia
Global grape production & Yield
80
100
120
140
160
Yield evolution (total grapes/total area including vines not in production yet)
World Total
Africa
America
Asia
ql/ha
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0
20
40
60
80Asia
Europe
Oceania
Source: OIV
Yield is the measure of amount of grapes or wine produced per unit surface of vineyard: the trend has increased at world level to 91.7 ql /ha. Productivity is growing especially in the countries that produce non-fermented products and table grapes.
Major grapes producers: all usage
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
China
Italy
USA
Growth rate 2000-2012
100 000
120 000
1000 ql
Trends , 2000-2012
2000
2005
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Source: OIV
Grapes production growth is particularly significant in Cina , India and Cile. Cina with 100 Mql produces the 14% of the world grapes production, followed by Italy (68.4 Mql, 10% of the world grapes production) and USA (66.3 Mql, 10% of the world grapes production).
France
Spain
Cile
India
Argentina
Iran
World production 0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
China Italy USA France Spain Cile India Argentina Iran
2005
Forecast 2012
Wine�Production of wine
• World production• Major producers
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�Consumption of wine• World consumption• Major consumers
�Focus on wine trade• World wine trade: value & volume • Top world Exportes • Top world IMporters
Wine production
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• World wine production
• Major producers
Europe
72.7%
Asia
4.5%
America
17.0%
Africa
4.3%Oceania
3.1%
Europe
62.3%
Asia
6.9%
America
19.8%
Africa
5.1%
Oceania
5.9%
World production of wineState, 2000 State, 2012
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millions hl
Source: OIV
World wine production in 2012 is estimated at 251.7 Mhl . This is a low level especially for Europe, caused by the reduction in vineyards and poor weather conditions: -6% in comparison with 2011.
Major wine producers
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
1000 hl Trend, 2000-2012
20002005Forecast 2012South Africa
Growth rate 2000-2012
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Source: OIV
Within the EU, production may be described as very low:• France: 41.4 Mhl (-18%/2011)• Italy: 40 Mhl (-6%/2011)• Spain: 30.3 Mhl (-9%/2011)
USA recorded a high level of wine production at 20.5 Mhl (+6.9%/2011).
In South America, Chile recorded a new production record reaching 12.6 Mhl (+20%/2011), Argentina recorded a markedly reduced wine production (11.8 Mhl, -24%/2011).
0
10 000
20 000
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Roumania
France
Spian
Italy
Brazil
Greece
World Total
Germany
Portugal
Argentina
USA
China
South Africa
France41422 mhl-3%
Spain30392 mhl
-15%
USA515 mhl
-1%
Germany9012 mhl
-10%
Russian Federation6400 mhl
-10%
Portugal6141 mhl
8% Hungary1874 mhl
-46%
Bulgaria1337 mhl
-17%
Romania3311 mhl
-36%
China14880 mhl
18%
Production of wine in 2012
Evolution in % 2008-2012
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Increase Decrease
Argentina11778mhl
-20%
Australia12660 mhl
2%
Chile12554 mhl
45%South Africa
1037 mhl-1%
Brasil2917mhl
-21%
New zeland1940 mhl
-5%
-46% -17%
Czech Rep.470 mhl-44%
-36%
Italy40060 mhl-15%
Greece3150 mhl-19%
Source: OIV
Stability
Wine consumption
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• World consumption• Major consumers
World consumption of wine
210
230
250
270
290
millions of hlWorld wine Consumption
69.3%
62.0%
Continental evolution total wine
consumption as % of world
consumption 2000-2012
Europe
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2012 world wine consumption rose to 243.2 Mhl : a confirmed recovery of internal demand.
Source: OIV
150
170
190
210
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast
2012
62.0%
6.0%10.0%
19.8%22.0%
3.0%3.0%1.9%
3.0%
2000 2012Oceania
Africa
America
Asia
Wine Consumption
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1000 hl Trend, 2000-2012
2000
2005
Forecast 2012
Argentina
Italy
Spian
Roumania
Growth rate 2000-2012
O.I.V.2013Source: OIV
Countries that are historically big producers and consumers havereduced their level of consumption :
• France (-12%/2000);
• Italy (-27%/2000);
• Spain (-34%/2000)
0
5 000
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Russian Federation
China
Australia
USA
United Kingdom
Chile
World Total
Brazil
Greece
Germany
Portugal
South Africa
France
Argentina
Source: OIV
USA is becoming the largest internal market in the world in terms of volume,internal consumption: 29 Mhl in 2012 (+37%/2000).
Wine consumption is rising sharply in Asia : continued growth in China(+67%/2000).
Focus on Wine trade **
• World wine trade: value & volume
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*in collaboration with the Spanish Observatory of Wine Markets (OeMv)
• World wine trade: value & volume
• Top world Exportes • Top world IMporters
NOTE: data for world trade are taken from GTA, which, in turn, take them from official administration bodies in more than 80 countries of the world. Not all countries are, therefore, included.
International wine trade
According to data officially provided to the OIV in 2012 :
� world market , considered as the sum of exports from all countries reached 102.2 Mhl
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102.2 Mhl
� world import stood at 97.9 Mhl
Data for the special focus on world trade are taken from GTA, representing more than 80 countries.
15 77516 393
17 750
19 924 20 042
17 953
20 947
23 345
25 290
World wine trade in Euros and Litres
Source: GTA, OIV,OeMv
€/L
Mill €
Mill l.
Less wine traded, though more expensive
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2.27 2.30 2.12 2.19 2.13 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.292.08 2.23 2.32
2.55
13 767 14 16614 964 15 259
15 77516 393
6 066 6 1577 061 6 958
7 413 7 6438 197
9 048 8 749 8 6149 385
10 073 9 903
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
World trade of wine and must increased in 2012 by 8.3% in value, up to 25.290 million Euros (exporters’ data) but fell by 1.7% in volume, to 99 Mhl , with average prices up by 10.2%
Changing the composition: value
9.0% 8.2% 7.8% 8.6% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 9.7% 10.2% 11.0%
Must
Bulk
+ 2%
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In value terms, since the beginning of the Century, Sparkling remains with the same share (around 17% of total), whereas 2 percentage points are exchanged between bottled wine (less) and wine sold in bulk (more).
16.9% 15.4% 16.2% 16.8% 17.1% 17.9% 18.6% 19.7% 19.9%16.5% 16.7% 17.0% 17.1%
73.7% 76.1% 75.6% 74.3% 73.3% 73.2% 72.6% 71.6% 70.7%73.1% 73.2% 72.4% 71.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bulk
Bottled
Sparkling
- 2.2%
Bottled and bulk categories: volume
60.1%
62.9%64.5%
60.6% 59.9%61.6%
59.4%57.7% 57.7% 57.2% 56.8%
54.9% 55.4%
Bottled
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More clearly, in terms of volume where wine in bulk and containers above 2 l. are getting close to 38% of total market (up 3 percentage points since 2000), bottled wines reduce their share from 60% to 55% in the same period.
33.6%
30.9%29.1%
32.6%33.5%
32.0%
34.5%35.8% 35.1%
36.1% 36.3%37.8% 37.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bulk
Top world Exporters
Top wine world exporters
2011 2012 Variation 2011 2012 Variation 2011 2012 Variation
France 7 194.1 7 836.6 8.9% 1 419.4 1 499.2 5.6% 5.07 5.23 3.1%
Italy 4 404.7 4 690.6 6.5% 2 323.8 2 120.0 -8.8% 1.90 2.21 16.7%
Spain 2 215.1 2 359.9 6.5% 2 254.9 1 947.2 -13.6% 0.98 1.21 23.4%
Germany 981.4 973.7 -0.8% 415.1 396.0 -4.6% 2.36 2.46 4.0%
Portugal 657.8 707.5 7.6% 307.6 338.6 10.1% 2.14 2.09 -2.3%
Mill. € Mill. l. €/l
7.2% -6.2% 14.4%
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Top wine exporters account for almost 90% of total value and more than 92% of total volume. With “traditional” producers growing in 2012 at a rate o f 7.2% in Euros , versus 11.7% for “new” exporters . However, sales for the traditional producers decreased by 6.2% in volume whereas that of “new” producers increased last year by 6.4%.Similarly, export average prices grew faster in the “old world” (14.4%) than in the “new” (5%).
Portugal 657.8 707.5 7.6% 307.6 338.6 10.1% 2.14 2.09 -2.3%
Australia 1 426.7 1 523.7 6.8% 720.5 734.9 2.0% 1.98 2.07 4.7%
Chile 1 220.5 1 399.5 14.7% 666.6 751.7 12.8% 1.83 1.86 1.7%
USA 966.7 1 077.4 11.5% 421.8 400.9 -5.0% 2.29 2.69 17.3%
New Zealand 646.5 767.0 18.6% 168.1 175.8 4.6% 3.85 4.36 13.5%
Argentina 610.1 711.3 16.6% 317.1 364.7 15.0% 1.92 1.95 1.4%
South Africa 541.8 566.1 4.5% 375.2 412.8 10.0% 1.44 1.37 -5.0%
Rest of the
world2 479.4 2 676.7 8.0% 682.4 761.6 11.6% 3.63 3.51 -3.3%
WORLD TOTAL 23 344.8 25 290.0 8.3% 10 072.6 9 903.3 -1.7% 2.32 2.55 10.2%
11.7%6.4%
5%
Top 26 world importers of wine in terms of value (2012) account for 93% of world imports, divided into 5 major areas.
Top world Importers
TOTAL
"OLD"
TOTAL
"NEW"
Other
exporters
TOTAL
WORLD
import
% total
world
imports
Evolution
in %
2011-12
United Kingdom 2 712.9 1 157.7 73.1 3 943.74 15.8% 13.6%
Germany 1 934.9 330.7 128.0 2 393.55 9.6% 0.6%
Netherlands 572.0 199.8 101.2 872.97 3.5% 4.6%
Belgium 823.8 68.5 71.9 964.18 3.9% 4.4%
France 412.8 84.2 134.3 631.26 2.5% 1.5%
Sweden 320.2 160.1 60.7 540.93 2.2% 5.9%
2012 mill €
Other topRest
World wine
imports 2012: value
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Sweden 320.2 160.1 60.7 540.93 2.2% 5.9%
Denmark 333.4 128.6 36.6 498.65 2.0% -1.6%
Italy 248.3 38.0 19.2 305.46 1.2% 2.5%
Austria 187.9 15.2 4.5 207.55 0.8% 15.4%
Ireland 111.0 113.6 22.6 247.15 1.0% 9.2%
Finland 92.3 61.9 30.4 184.67 0.7% 5.1%
Poland 123.0 20.8 35.4 179.16 0.7% 7.6%
Tchek Republic 106.1 6.6 58.6 171.34 0.7% 4.0%
Lithuania 141.1 4.0 18.1 163.21 0.7% 32.8%
TOP EU 8 119.6 2 389.7 794.5 11 303.81 45.2% 6.8%
Switzerland 823.8 70.2 33.0 926.98 3.7% 8.3%
Norway 265.1 37.7 15.6 318.49 1.3% 10.4%
Russia 517.4 96.5 203.7 817.51 3.3% 18.4%
TOP OTHER EUROPE 1 606.3 204.4 252.3 2 062.98 8.3% 12.4%
Other importers 1 026.1 437.9 206.4 1 670.3 6.7% 9.9%
WORLD TOTAL 17 110.6 6 325.2 1 559.4 24 995.2 100.0% 9.8%
EU
RE
ST
OF
EU
RO
PE
North
America
22.5%
EU
45.2%
Rest of
Europe
8.3%
Asia
14.5%
Other top
2.8%Rest
6.7%
With different developments last year, North America, non-EU Europe and Asia were the most dynamic in €uros.
Top 26 world importers of wine in terms of value (2012) account for 93% of world imports, divided into 5 major areas.
Top world Importers
TOTAL
"OLD"
TOTAL
"NEW"
Other
exporters
TOTAL
WORLD
import
% total
world
imports
Evolution
in %
2011-12
USA 2 625.2 1 240.7 73.0 3 938.96 15.8% 13.8%
Canada 793.5 731.3 15.3 1 540.16 6.2% 12.1%
México 96.6 50.8 0.9 148.30 0.6% 9.9%
N. AMERICA 3 515.3 2 022.8 89.3 5 627.42 22.5% 13.2%
China 800.7 397.4 31.8 1 229.98 4.9% 18.5%
2012 mill €
NO
RT
H
AM
ER
ICA
Other top
2.8%Rest
World wine
imports 2012: value
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China 800.7 397.4 31.8 1 229.98 4.9% 18.5%
Japan 937.7 276.9 10.6 1 225.15 4.9% 27.5%
Hong Kong 517.3 144.6 145.0 806.97 3.2% -10.9%
Singapour 278.5 71.9 19.3 369.70 1.5% 7.4%
TOP ASIA 2 534.2 890.8 206.8 3 631.79 14.5% 11.8%
Australia 205.0 253.3 6.3 464.52 1.9% 21.8%
Brazil 104.1 126.4 3.9 234.36 0.9% 10.6%
OTHER TOP 309.1 379.7 10.1 698.88 2.8% 17.8%
Other importers 1 026.1 437.9 206.4 1 670.3 6.7% 9.9%
WORLD TOTAL 17 110.6 6 325.2 1 559.4 24 995.2 100.0% 9.8%
OT
HE
R
MA
JOR
ASI
ANorth
America
22.5%
EU
45.2%
Rest of
Europe
8.3%
Asia
14.5%
2.8%Rest
6.7%
With different developments last year, North America, non-EU Europe and Asia were the most dynamic in €uros.
Major groups (importers’ perspective)
North America
1,589 mill Ltrs
16.7% of total
Evolution
2011/2012:
11.9%
EU
5,293 mill Ltrs
55.8% of total
Evolution
2011/2012: :
-3.9%
Other Europe
763 mill Ltrs
8% of total
Evolution
2011/2012: :
-0.7%Asia
738 mill Ltrs
7.8% of total
Evolution
2011/2012:
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In regards to volume of imports , the EU remains the largest wine & must buyer despite a decrease in 2012, as opposed to North America and Asia.
2011/2012:
12.5%
Perspectives and trends
�Decline of surface areas (and production): will this trend continue?
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�(Slight) recovery of world consumption: notably outside Europe, the evolution is a positive one although 2008 levels have not yet been met.
�Decrease in available volume of export resulting in a reduction from the bulk wine, particularly for European producers.
Thank you for your attention
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit
O.I.V.2013
Grazie per la Loro attenzione
Gracias por su atención
Merci de votre attention