ON THE NECESSITY OF DEVELOPING EARTHQUAKE

SCENARIOS: The case of Kangra Earthquake of 1905

HARSH GUPTA

RAJA RAMANNA FELLOW

NATIONAL GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE

HYDERABAD-500 606, INDIA

Earthquakes of magnitude greater and equal to 7 as well as earthquakes that claimed human lives in the vicinity of the Himalayan Frontal Arc

(updated from Chandra, 1978)

MUZAFFARABAD2005

1988 ASSAM

Earth fissures in soft ground 2 miles long on a river bank; there are two holes of 30 feet diameter and 4 feet deep from which fissures radiate; the largest fissures are 2 feet wide; water in great volumes issued from these fissures

The only case of rock fissure that seemed to penetrate into the rock and to be connected with and part of the rockfolding of the region, this was among folded limestones striking NW-SE. Klay along a line of faulting and had perfectly fresh surfaces. It also dipped or haded into the hillside, and not down the slope suggesting fresh movement along an old fault.

RAILWAY LINESROADS

DAMAGE TO HILL ROADS

AFTERSHOCKSOn the day of the earthquakeOne shock every 30 minutesApril 11, 1905

April 15, 1905

SUTLEJ River

RAJPURDEHRADUN

LANDOUR

CHAKRATA

MUSSORIE

HARDWAR

MUZAFFER NAGAR

RURKI

SIMLA

LUDIANAFEROZEPORE

HOSHIAPUR

GURDASPUR

PATHANKOTNURPUR

CHAMBACHANDRA BAGHA VALLEY

KAILING

SHAHPUR

RANITALJARI

JWALAMUKHI

SUJANPURMANDI

DHARMSALA

BARMOUR

PALAMPUR

GUNAURLA

RAMPURLURI

DALASHCHAWAI

JIBHIK

PLACHMAGLAUR

NAGGARMANIKARN

SULTANPURARUINalso called KULU Town

BAJAURALARJIOYONO

BAIJATHJWATHAIRI

SIALKOT

BEA

S R

.

RAVI R.

The 1905 Kangra earthquake. CDE is the leveling line before and after the earthquake. Roads (only hill roads were affected) and railways (unaffected) and areas affected by landslides are shown. Some severe aftershocks, locations where foreshocks were felt and travelers’ bungalows are shown. Isoseists are drawn on the RF scale. (after Satyabala 2002)

A very hot spring at Basisht turned quite cold; and water of Kelat, 4 miles further down the valley was rendered hot. After a week or 10 days, they reverted back to their normal state

Celebrated Hot Springs: points of exit varied slightly [these springs deposit masses of yellow calceroustufa; and they also throw up small white seed or pearl-like bodies called “manis”

A very hot spring was turned quite cold; and whilst lukewarm water in a spring 4 miles down the valley was rendered hot

Water flowing down the ravine from springs doubled in volume

Springs increased their Discharge by 20-30% which remained till 20th May; normal flow resumed by end of June.

Canal water waved, and small boats thrown out by the serious beat of the first shock

Water rose to a height of 6 feet at various places

Water from the canal spread over the bank

Volume of water in streams increased

The 1905 Kangra earthquake. Rivers, canals and springs affected are shown along with the isoseists in RF scale (after Satyabala 2002)

1905, April 4, Kangra. The earliest large Indian earthquake for which

a well-documented instrumental magnitude (8.6±) can be

assigned. This was a great disaster; the loss of life is stated as

19,000. Instrumental data are not adequate to fix the epicenter.

The meizoseismal area, including Kangra, was on the Tertiary

rocks of the foothills of the Himalaya. An isolated area of high

intensity, lower than that at Kangra but not approached

elsewhere, included Dehra Dun, also in the foothills; this was

separated from the Kangra meizoseismal area by about 100

miles. The available evidence does not support the idea of two

separate earthquakes; it is more likely that there was a great

linear extent of faulting.

Charles F. Richter 1958

HOW OFTEN

LARGE EARTHQUAKES

OCCUR IN

HIMALAYA

A model with space time diagram of ruptures associated with major and great earthquakes in the Himalayan Frontal Arc since 1800 (adopted from Seeber and Ambruster, 1981). Please note that data are scanty and incomplete before 1897

Location map of the study area in the Krishnai and Dudhnai river valleys close to the Chedrang Fault in the Shillong Plateau, northeast India. The top left inset map shows the location of four great Himalayan earthquakes, and the right inset includes the simplified geological map of the Shillong Plateau and the area of intensity X (MM) of the 1897 earthquake.

C ages of organic samples representing various seismic events in the Shillong Plateau

earlier than 600AS-16: 240-870--IV

700-1050AS-8: 530-1295AS-24: 790-1300AS-37: 550-1030AS-41: 1020-1460

AS-11: 689-1290RAS: 645-1017

420-1010440-1255660-1280540-890400-1000

AS-7:AS-7a;AS-10:AS-22:AS-23:

III

1450-1650AS-19:1225-1660AS-28:1290-1950AS-30:1400-1630

AS-13:1290-1950AS-31:1240-1950AS-32:1300-1955AS-45:1450-1660

1050-1415AS-39:II

1897aAS-18: ModernAS-43: Modern

AS-33: ModernAS-34: Modern

1430-19551425-1955

AS-1:AS-3:

I

Age-range AD (MPAE)

Maximum ageCoeval age Minimum age

Sample code

Event

MPAE = most probable age of the event. Modern = 14C age ≤50 years. RAS = Rastogi et al.[34]

88,0005%10%Noon Time (out working)

177,00010%20%Morning (awake and sleeping)

344,00020%40%Midnight (sleeping)

Total potentialDeaths

Deaths in Part-collapsed house

Deaths in collapsed

house

Time occurrence

Estimates of Human lives likely to be lost if the Kangra Earthquake of 1995, which claimed 20,000 lives, was to occur today. (Arya, 1992)

●Kangra 1905Muzaffarabad 2005

74,500+ dead (14th deadliest earthquake of all time) 106,000+ injured

Casualties

Pakistan India AfghanistanCountries/ regions affected

Muzaffarabad, AJKEpicenter Location

10 KmDepth:

7.6 Moment magnitude scaleMagnitude

October 8, 2005Date

QUIESCENCE FOR

LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN

HIMALAYA

2

9

25

14

11

19

M ≥ 7.5

7.5 > M ≥ 7.0

7.0 > M ≥ 6.5

1953-20071897-1952Magnitude

EQs will continue to occur in Himalaya

EQ forecast not yet possible

Areas prone to EQ and damage scenarios are known

• Implementation of building codes of BIS

be made mandatory.

• Retrofit important buildings, situated in

zone IV and zone V of the Zonation

map.

• Microzonation of important cities of the

country is a must.

DEVELOPING EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS IS VERY EDUCATIVE

AND SHOULD BE USED FOR MITIGATING EARTHQUAKE

HAZARD

THANK YOU

• Seventy percent of Indians live in rural areas in

houses and dwellings made without any engineering

considerations. Methods are available to strengthen

their dwellings by some simple, very inexpensive

approaches. These should be popularized.

• Equally important is to make public aware of what to

do and what not to do before, during, and after

earthquakes. Suitable training at high-school level

would considerably help us in addressing the problem

of earthquakes in the Himalayan region.