one number – un piano della domanda condiviso e affidabile garantisce la soddisfazione del mercato
TRANSCRIPT
Bologna, 26 Marzo 2015
ONE NUMBER – UN PIANO DELLA DOMANDA CONDIVISO E AFFIDABILE GARANTISCE LA SODDISFAZIONE DEL MERCATO Francesco Stolfo Partner - Sales Director ToolsGroup Italy
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EUROPE Amsterdam Milan Munich Barcelona London Stockholm
AMERICA Boston(*) Ontario Mexico D.F.
ASIA Malaysia India Japan
MIDDLE EAST Israel AFRICA Cape Town
Our Vision
Accelerating Business Performance through
Market Driven Demand Analytics and Supply
Chain Optimization
Our Mission
To be the leading provider of
“Powerfully Simple” software solutions that
deliver business value in
complex, demand driven environments
Our Approach
Best practices leveraging
quantitative and qualitative data
to deliver predictive demand signals
to enhance the effectiveness of
the planning process
2013 - Winner of European Supply Chain Excellence Award Category: Technology www.supplychainexcellenceawards.com
(*) HQs
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SO99+: our software solution for Planning & Optimization
Supply Chain distribution intensive industries
CPG Sales Mktg.
Manufacturing
Comprehensive Statistical Model
ERP/SCP/SCE
Demand Planning
Demand Modelling
Statistical Forecasting
Promo, media, NPI
Demand Sensing
Demand Collaboration Hub
Inventory Optimization
Inventory Modeling
Service Planning
Mix, Stage & Lot Size Optimization
Multi-Echelon
Replenishment Planning
Dynamic Min/Max projected requirements
SC Monitoring & Visibility
Level Loading
VMI
Supply Collaboration Hub
Transportation Plan
Comprehensive Statistical Model
Predictive Demand Analytics
Market clustering Segmentation
Trade Promotion Optimization
Media event and trend indicators
ROI
Production Planning and Scheduling
Mill allocation
Finite capacity plan
ATP
Production Scheduling
MES
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Customer References
Consumer Durables
250+ customer businesses in 31 countries loyalty greater than 95%
Food-CPG
Healthcare | Pharma | Chemical
Fashion & Apparel
Retail & Wholesale
Automotive & Aftermarket
TLC | Steel | Engineering
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ToolsGroup - Sales Inventory & Operation Planning (SIOP approach)
Demand Planning Inventory Planning & Optimization Replenishment Planning
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The Myth of the ONE NUMBER Planning
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S&OP and The One Number Planning
Metà anni ‘80: Dick C. Ling, consulente della Oliver Wight, fu il primo ad annunciare un nuovo processo (S&OP)... that would help companies align their manufacturing operations and resources planning with the anticipated demand for their products.
Christopher Turner, collega di Ling, fu tra i primi a definire l’approccio dei 5 passi tipico del S&OP.
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S&OP and The One Number Planning
• Demand Planning ([...] “combination of actual sales activity and forecast
combined with other forms of market insight” - Steve Hochman of AMR
Research);
• Centralized Demand Planning Meeting (the multiple forecasts for each
product family — often from different regions — are rolled up into a consensus
outlook - the forecast is unconstrained);
• Capacity and Supply Planning (production planners might note that a
certain supplier has been late on shipments, or that the amount of product expected
would mean additional worker overtime);
• Pre-S&OP Meeting (Here, problems and imbalances are identified and
financial implications are considered. Issues that can't be resolved by the manager-
/director-level participants are elevated to the next step);
• Executive S&OP Meeting (The senior executives involved. Typical decisions
include increasing procurement budgets or adjusting production schedules at various
plants — high-cost activities that demand executive sign-off);
S&OP: 5 step process
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S&OP and The One Number Planning
Nei primi anni ‘90 solo il 20% delle aziende che partecipano al programma di ricerca MIT Supply Chain 2020 avevano tentato di implementare processi di S&OP. Nel 2007 erano diventate l’80%.
MIT Supply Chain 2020 Program
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S&OP and The One Number Planning
• Demand Planning ([...] “combination of actual sales activity and forecast
combined with other forms of market insight” - Steve Hochman of AMR
Research);
• Centralized Demand Planning Meeting (the multiple forecasts for each
product family — often from different regions — are rolled up into a consensus
outlook - the forecast is unconstrained);
• Capacity and Supply Planning (production planners might note that a
certain supplier has been late on shipments, or that the amount of product expected
would mean additional worker overtime);
• Pre-S&OP Meeting (Here, problems and imbalances are identified and
financial implications are considered. Issues that can't be resolved by the manager-
/director-level participants are elevated to the next step);
• Executive S&OP Meeting (The senior executives involved. Typical decisions
include increasing procurement budgets or adjusting production schedules at various
plants — high-cost activities that demand executive sign-off);
S&OP: 5 step process
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Sales & Marketing effects on the Demand Signal
A
B
C
Available
spending budget
Growing noise and loss of visibility
Discount
3x2
Point
Noise from competitor promo activities
What is the store’s
contribution to an individual promotion?
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How to support the Demand Planning
Calculation of the baseline and support for shaping promotional uplifts Via the use of data based on sell-in revenue/volumes, the filtering of external factors and the consultation of all available proprietary and competitor calendars, the baseline at customer/product/period level can be obtained and the relative uplift effect of the individual phenomenon (both in the past and in the future).
Baseline Calculation & Promotion Modelling
A brand new application frontier for Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning technology clusters all past promotion activities into “like-effect” groups, and identifies the drivers. On this basis it is able to identify and classify all new planned campaigns in accordance with their characteristics.
Statistical forecast model at Product/Market Structure For every Product / Market Structure, a robust and accurate demand baseline is generated. The baseline is cleansed of every promotional or external effect. An accurate baseline is fundamental to identifying elements of promotional uplift.
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The One Number Planning
[…] ToolsGroup customer Granarolo, an Italian dairy products company, uses data analysis to help juggle the shelf-life of many of its products. For instance fresh milk lasts for six days while the company’s yoghurt has 40 days to sit in the supermarket. Seasonal taste adds to the complexity of shipping products across Europe, with items such as mozzarella cheese selling better in summer. Another factor is that 60 per cent of Granarolo’s products are sold via promotions and discounts. The consumer response to each of these deals has to be carefully calculated by the Bologna-based company. Granarolo, applying past experience of how well promotions have worked in different outlets, uses the machine learning program to generate suggested stock levels. These predictions rely on data from 60,000 sites across Europe. […]
Trade Promotion Optimization System
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Powerfully Simple
Synergy across Functions: One Number Planning
OPERATIONS SALES
Uplift (%)
Baseline (Vol) Sales Team Members validate Promo events (Net Uplift and Net ROI) which best fits with Business OBJs and share them to
Supply Chain Team
Mid-term Promo Plans in compliance with financial objectives built up from
lowest level of detail
Supply Chain
Key Account
Trade Marketing
Finance
Advanced promo & forecast models are shared with sales teams in order to provide an analytical basis business decision making
Trade Promotion Optimization System
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Powerfully Simple
How to improve Promotion & Media ADV Effectiveness
Dynamic Market Modelling
IN-STORE ANALYSIS
Product location Attractiveness
OOS Planogram
MEDIA FORECASTING
PROMOTION FORECASTING
CATALOGUE & ADVERTISING
Web and Flyers
Syndicated & Sell-Out
Data
Supply Chain Planning
Demand Forecast Short, Medium &
Long term
Trade Promotion Decision
Support System by objective
and ROI