online trends august 2009
TRANSCRIPT
Some online drivers, observations & predictions
Björn Elmberg, Cybercom, August 2009
Agenda
• 2 core drivers
What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance
• 7 highly personal observations
Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what
can we expect from 2009/2010
• 3 predictions
Some thoughts about the future
Two core drivers
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
Amaras law
We don’t like change. Technology has the
initiative. But the people make the momentum
Technology People
People are in control
• Dell hell -> Dell Idea storm
• Social media
• Freeconomics
• Long tail
• Folksonomy
• Brands on AdWords – open for everyone*
Advertising Age 2009-05-14
7 observations
1.
Web 3.0 is about context, structureand filtering (but not aboutmetadata)
• Search engines (Improved context)
– Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha
• Aggregators and filters
– Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck
• Personalization
– When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?
The drivers behind web 3.0
We will never be able to agree on one, common
framework for categorizing Internet content.
And we will not be thorough enough to categorize
everything. Always.
Thank god for search engines
The semantic web is utopian
2.
Augmented reality. Our digital and real worlds are merging
2009-09-21 e.g. name of the presenter18
2009-09-21 e.g. name of the presenter20
3.
Integrity online – we are not actingcoherently
On one hand, we are really engaging ourselves for integrity and the
right to stay anonymous online…
“You can make money
without doing evil.”
http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html
…on the other hand we happily provide Google with information about
where we surf, what we mail, what we search etc etc. And for every
new content-related company Google buys we get happier.
• Gmail
• Google Wave
• Google Calendar
• YouTube
• Google Maps
• Google Docs
• Blogger
• Google Reader
• and of course… Google Search
• Google-controlled web trackers are tracking
users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about
88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains
• 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their
affiliates
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/
Google Research has developed a prototype system that
uses a home computer’s microphone to:
• listen to the ambient audio in a room,
• determine what is being watched on TV
• and offer web-based supplemental information,
services and shopping contextual to each program
being watched
http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2006/06/interactive-tv-
conference-and-best.html
4.
”Facebook is underhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
www.compete.com 2009-09-10
www.compete.com 2009-09-10
The world s most used website
• Average user has 120 friends on the site
• More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at
least once each day
• 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent
(about 1.6 billion) have Internet access
• 8 percent regularly use Facebook.
• 92 percent of Internet users have yet to
discover it
www.internetworldstats.com
www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
5.
”Twitter is overhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the
attributes of a fad, including the one that people like
me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it
will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life”
Tom Davenport April 9, 2009
• 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only
60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one
friend
• 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@userhttp://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf
• 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a monthhttp://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a-
month-clip-2009-5
• Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user
is one
• The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweetshttp://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html
Twitter is a broadcasting channel
6.
Increased metric focus decreaseonline brand building
Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the
trouble is I don’t know which half
John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922
• Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online
advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will
account for just 21 percent
• Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during
2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to
increase with 12 percent
• Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when
the marketing spend gets squeezed
From display advertising to action-driven advertising
http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17
http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17
• You optimize what you measure
• It is difficult to measure brand value
• Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short-
term
• Improved user experience can often drastically
improve brand attitudes
7.
The risk aversive conformitydisease
How many music and appstores can you spot?
Schibsted
• Viktklubb
• Tv.nu
• Tasteline
• E24.se
• Hitta.se
• Destination.se/Resdagboken
Bonnier
• GI Viktkoll
• Tv-planeten
• Recept.nu
• Va.se
• 118 100
• ?
1. Web 3.0 is about context, structure and filtering
2. Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
3. Augmented reality. Our digital and real worlds
are merging
4. Facebook is underhyped
5. Twitter is overhyped
6. Metric focus decrease online brand building
7. The risk aversive conformity disease
Summary
Outlook and speculations
Editorial and commercial content will become
increasingly blended and difficult to separate
– To attract younger audiences
– To increase ad revenues
– May generate new legislations
Advertising
Brand advertising
There will be some kind of new advertising model not
yet invented
– Performance-based, but less tied to action and more
towards brand impression and engagement
– Pinstorm - A pure, pay-for-performance digital
advertising firm.
– VideoEgg – Cost per engagement
Conformity disease
An opportunity lies for those who dare to be
different, to stand out
– Limited economies of scale
– Attention economy increasingly valid
– We want to be entertained
– We live in exponential times, the viral effect is
spreading and increasing, ”the viral long tail”
Augmented reality
Applications that help to seamlessly integrate
our online and offline lives will be initially hyped
and then increasingly common
