operational use of the rapid update cycle comap symposium 16 december 1999 stan benjamin - noaa/fsl...
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Operational Use of the Rapid Update Cycle
COMAP Symposium
16 December 1999
Stan Benjamin - NOAA/[email protected]://maps.fsl.noaa.gov
- RUC/MAPS web page
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The 1-h Version of the RUC
Data cutoff - +20 min, 2nd run at +55 min at 0000, 1200 UTC
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RUC/MAPS Purpose
• Provide high-frequency mesoscale analyses and short-range numerical forecasts for users including:– aviation– severe weather forecasting– general public forecasting– other transportation– agriculture
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What Runs Where
• Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)– Operational Version at NCEP
• Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)– Experimental Version at NOAA/ERL/FSL
(Essentially the same software.
New capabilities tested first in MAPS at FSL)
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Uses of the RUC• Explicit Use of Short-Range Forecasts• Monitoring Current Conditions with Hourly Analyses• Evaluating Trends of Longer-Range Models
Some places where the RUC is used– Aviation Weather Center - airmets, sigmets– Storm Prediction Center - severe weather watches– FAA – CWSUs, WARP, air traffic management (CTAS), ITWS..– National Weather Service Forecast Offices– Airline Forecasting Offices– NASA Space Flight Centers– Private vendors
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NWS Forecast Discussion Use of RUC - Feb-Nov 1999
100-400
40-99
20-39
10-19
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http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov
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Hourly Data for 40 km MAPS/RUC-2
Yellow items new for RUC-2**not used since 1/99 in RUCor EDAS pending QC issues
Data Type ~Number Freq. Use
Rawinsonde (inc. special obs) 80 /12h NCEP and FSLWPDN/NPN profilers 31 / 1h NCEP and FSL
- 405 MHzBoundary layer profilers 15 / 1h FSL onlyRASS (WPDN and PBL) 15 / 1h FSL onlyVAD winds (WSR-88D) 110-130 / 1h **NCEP & FSLAircraft (ACARS)(V,temp) 700-3000 / 1h NCEP and FSLSurface - land (V,psfc,T,Td) 1500-1700 / 1h NCEP and FSLBuoy 100-200 / 1h NCEP and FSL
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Hourly Data for 40 km MAPS/RUC-2 (cont).
Yellow items new for RUC-2
Data Type ~Number Freq. Use
GOES precipitable water 1000-2500 / 1h NCEP and FSLGOES high-density cloud drift winds (IR, VIS, WV cloud top) 1000-2500 / 3h NCEP and FSLSSM/I precipitable water 1000-4000 /2-6h NCEP onlyShip reports 10s / 3h NCEP onlyReconnaissance
dropwinsonde a few / variable NCEP only
Real-time observation counts at http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov for RUC-2 and 40-km MAPS
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Advantages of Coords for Data Assimilation
Analysis
- adaptive 3-d correlation structures and analysis increments, esp. nearbaroclinic zones- improved coherence of observations near fronts for QC
Forecast Model
- reduced vertical flux through coordinate surfaces, leading to reduced vertical dispersion -- much of vertical motion implicit in 2-d horiz. advection- conservation of potential vorticity- reduced spin-up problems (Johnson et al. 93 MWR)
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RUC hybrid-b levels - cross-section
Hybrid-b levels- solid
levels (every 6 K)- dashed
No discontinuitiesat transitions
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Effect of vertical coordinateon frontal features
Turbulence diagnosticat FL200 (20,000 ft)
- calculated from native grid from both MesoEta and RUC (matched forecast times)
Sharper frontal resolution with RUC despite coarser horizontal resolution and fewer vertical levels
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Rapid Update Cycle – Present and Next Version1999 Operations 2000-01 Operations
Resolution 40 km, 40levels 2015 km, 40 50-60 levels
Analysis Optimal interpolation on 3-d variational technique on generalized on generalized surfaces surfaces, hydrometeor analysis w/
GOES…, use raw instead of interp. obsAssimilation Intermittent 1-h cycle Intermittent 1-h cycle
Stable clouds Mixed-phase cloud microphysics MM5), Improved microphysics, / precipitation explicit fcst of cloud water, rain water, addition of drizzle
snow, ice, graupel, no. concentration of ice particles
Sub-grid-scale Grell (1993) Modified Grell, scale dependence, precipitation shallow convection, interaction w/
cloud microphysics Turbulence Burk-Thompson explicit TKE scheme Refined Burk-Thompson or e-
Radiation MM5 LW/SW scheme, f(hydrometeors) Refined MM5 scheme
Land-sfc processes 6-level soil/veg model (Smirnova, Add vertical soil type variability, 1997, 1999) w/ frozen soil, 2-layer snow improved cold season processes
Sfc conditions Daily 50km SST/14 km LST, Combine sat Tskin, use 3-d soil type 0.14 monthly NDVI veg frac, cycled soil moisture/temp, snow depth/temp
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RUC-2 Analysis
• Background (1-h fcst usually) subtracted from all obs– Analysis is of forecast error
• QC - buddy check, removal of VADs w/ possible bird contamination problems
• 3-part analysis (all using optimal interpolation)– 1) univariate precipitable water (PW) analysis - using
satellite PW obs - update mixing ratio field– 2) z/u/v 3-d multivariate analysis
• update v based on height/thickness analysis increment• update psfc from height analysis increment at sfc• update u/v at all levels• Partial geostrophic balance – vertically dependent, weakest at surface
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RUC-2 Analysis, cont.
- 3) univariate analyses • condensation pressure at all levelsv at all levels
• update u/v near sfc and psfc (univariate analysis) with smaller correlation lengths
• Pass through soil moisture, cloud mixing ratios, snow cover/temperature (will alter these fields in future, cloud analysis parallel cycle now running)
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RUC-2 Analysis, cont.
• Vertical spreading (correlation of forecast error) based on potential temperature separation (not pressure separation as w/ other models)
• Analysis in generalized vertical coordinate (code applicable to pressure, sigma, or eta analysis) except for adjustment at end to reference potential temperatures and new psfc
• Background is usually previous 1 hr RUC forecast
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Raob sounding RUC2 grid sounding
Close fit to observations in RUC2 analysis
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Raob RUC after fix RUC before fix
7 April 99 significant-level fix in RUC-2
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Use of ‘minimum topography’for 2m T/Td fields from RUC2
RUC2 2m T/Td fields are not valid at model terrain surface
Instead, they are derived from model surface fields and lapse rates in lowest 25 mb to estimate new values using a different topography field that more closely matches actual METAR elevations
“Minimum topography” – minimum 10km value inside each 40km grid box, then updated with high-resolution analysis using actual METAR elevations.
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Minimum topo for 2m T/Td
Model topo
RUC2 topography fields
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RUCS 60 km Hourly Surface Analyses (same as AWIPS MSAS)
• Draws fairly closely to data• Persistence background field (1 hr previous
analysis– QC vulnerable to consistent data problems– no consistency with terrain effects except as reflected
in observations
• MAPS sea-level pressure, (Benjamin & Miller, 1990 MWR)
• Blending to data-void region from NGM
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Surface Analyses/Forecasts in RUC-2
• integrated with 3-d 40 km 1 hr cycle
• dynamic consistency with model forecast => accounts for:– land/water, mtn circulations, sea/lake breezes,
snow cover, vegetation…
• improved quality control - model forecast background prevents runaway bullseyes
• forecasts out to 12 hr in addition to hourly analyses
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RUC2 Surface Analysis Topographical features more evident with model background
RUCS 60km surface analysis Little consistency with nighttime drainage
Divergence - 0900 UTC 20 Jan 98(blue - conv, green/yellow - div)
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Divergence - RUC2 Surface Analysis - 0600Z 19 April 96
Consistency with topographical features in model(land/water roughness length variations in this case)
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Surface Analyses/Forecasts in RUC-2, cont.
• Same fields as in 60 km RUCS, plus all fields available in 3-d system
RUC-2 sfc files (GRIB)
0.3 MB / output time
all variables from RUCS plus
precip
precip type
stability indices
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RUC-2 use of surface dataAll winds, sfc pressure obs usedT/Td used if abs (Pstation - Pmodel) < 70 mb
- about 90% west of 105ºW, 99% east of 105ºW
Eta48 Eta29 RUC40FGZ 0 18 10TUS 60 13 44SLC 59 68 59MFR 109 48 67OAK 18 15 25SAN 12 5 23DRA 42 29 34GJT 98 105 65RIW 104 27 16GEG 4 11 1GTF 26 4 14UIL 14 9 11SLE 50 15 22BOI 55 21 24GGW 29 13 5VBG 5 32 3
** within 5 mb of closest fit
|pmodel - pstn|
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RUC surface temperature forecasts- verification against all METARs in RUC domain
RMS error Bias (obs - forecast)
persistence
Validation time Validation time
Excellent analysis fit to surface obs (also wind, Td)3-h forecast better than 3-h persistence
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
00z 03z 06z 09z 12z 15z 18z 21z
national surface temperature verification99160-99182
3-hpers
anx
3-h
RM
S t
emp
era
ture
err
or
(0C
)
cycle
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00z 03z 06z 09z 12z 15z 18z 21z
national surface temperature bias verification99160-99182
3-hpers
anx
3-h
tem
pe
ratu
re b
ias
(0C
)
cycle
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Effect of 6 May 1999 Fix to surface temperature diagnosis in RUC2
Improved lapse rates inextrapolation from RUC2model terrain to differentterrain file (“minimum topography”) used forsfc T/Td diagnosis.
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-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 g/kg
Analysis increment fields (1h forecast error correction)RUC analysis2200 UTC 29 Oct 1999
Sfc virtual pot temp Sfc water vapor mix ratio
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Windanalysis increment fields (forecast error correction)-RUC analysis2200 UTC 29 Oct 1999
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Vertical cross-section – 2200 UTC 29 Oct 99RUC 3-d analysis
Need for 3-d consistency to initialize model,other diagnostics
SLC CYS
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RUC-2 Model
• Prognostic variables– Dynamic - (Bleck and Benjamin, 93 MWR)
v, p between levels, u, v
– Moisture - (MM5 cloud microphysics)• q v, qc, qr, qi, qs, qg, Ni (no. conc. ice particles)
– Turbulence - (Burk-Thompson, US Navy, 89 JAS)– Soil - temperature, moisture - 6 levels (down to 3 m)– Snow - water equivalent depth, temperature
(soil/snow/veg model - Smirnova et al., 1997 MWR)
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RUC-2 Model, cont.
• Numerics– Continuity equation
• flux-corrected transport (positive definite)
– Advection of v, all q (moisture) variables• Smolarkiewicz (1984) positive definite scheme
– Horizontal grid• Arakawa C
– Vertical grid• Non-staggered, generalized vertical coordinate currently set as
isentropic-sigma hybrid
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RUC-2 Model, cont.
• Cumulus parameterization– Grell (Mon.Wea.Rev., 1993)– simplified (1-cloud) version of Arakawa-
Schubert– includes effects of downdrafts
• Digital filter initialization (Lynch and Huang, 93 MWR)– +/- 40 min adiabatic run before each forecast
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RUCDigital FilterInitialization
40 t forward40 t backward- digital filter avgof model values
Produces muchsmoother 1-h fcst
Mean absolute sfc pres tendency each t in successive RUC runs
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Processes in RUC2/MM5 microphysics (Reisner, Rasmusssen, Bruintjes, 1998, QJRMS)
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RUC2 case study - Quebec/New England ice storm - 9 Jan 1998500 mb height/vorticity - 9h RUC2 fcst valid 2100 UTC
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RUC2 9h fcst - Surface temp (image), MSLP (beige isobars)
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YUL
N-S cross-section - temperature (isopleths, int = 2 deg C, solid for > 0)RH (image), 9h RUC2 forecast
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Montreal ice storm - 9h RUC2 forecast valid 2100 9 Jan 98.N-S cross sections of RUC2 microphysics
| YUL/Montreal| YUL/Montreal
Water vapor mixing ratio / Cloud water mixing ratio
Graupel mixing ratioRain water mixing ratio
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40 km RUC versus 32 km Eta
June-July1999
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40 km RUC versus 32 km Eta
June-July1999
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RUC vs. Eta 12-h fcsts250mb RMS vector error
From 80km grids for both modelsRUC uses 24h Eta for lateral boundary conditions
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11
10
9
8
7
6
5
-4
-2
0
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98 105 112 119 126 133 140 147 154 161 168 175 182
250 mb wind vector verification
RU
C m
inus
Eta
vec
tor
diff
eren
ce
(ms
-1)
julian day (1999)
Eta better
RUC better
Comparable skill, potential for ensembles
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RUC 1, 3, 6, 12h forecasts valid at same time
Better wind and temperature forecasts with use ofmore recent asynoptic data
(against 0000 and 1200 UTC rawinsonde data)
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RUC/MAPSLand-surfaceProcessParameterization
(Smirnova et al.1997, MWR;1999, JGR)
Ongoing cycleof soil moisture,soil temp, snowcover/depth/temp)
2-layer snow model
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Addition of high-resolution EOS vegetation-type data to current 40km MAPS
- September 1999
Previous MAPS vegetation New vegetation – BATS classes
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RUC/MAPS cycling of soil/snow fields- soil temperature, soil moisture- snow water equivalent, snow temperature
MAPS snow water equivalent depth (mm) 5 Jan 1999 1800 UTC
NESDIS snow cover field5 Jan 1999 2200 UTC
1” 2” 3” 4” 5”
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RUC2 Output Files, cont.• Significant changes to RUC AWIPS output
Already started after NCEP fire
– AWIPS files produced as each part of RUC is complete (analysis, 3h, 6h, 9h, 12h) rather than all produced after end of RUC forecast run
– Hourly output of analysis and 3h fcst– New variables added - vertical velocity (3-d), lots of 2-d grids– New 2-d variables - cloud top/base, visibility, gust speed, PBL height,
conv cloud top, eq level, pres(max e)
Likely to start within next few months
– 212 grids (236 subset of 212 - 151x113 RUC domain) will be available (not certain of comms yet)
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Examples of new diagnostic fields from RUC
Visibility Sfc wind gust speed
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RUC visibility and ceilingvs.
METAR IFR/MVFR1700 UTC 4 Dec 1999
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Maintenance of operational RUC Operational production at FSL of backup RUC products in real time from 1 Oct thru 15 Nov 1999
Software and scripts developed and implemented on separate SGI Origin for backup. Monitoring, verification, new web sites, web forum Daily coordination with NCEP and NWS/OSO
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1-h fcst w/o GOES cloud assim
1-h fcst w/ hourly GOES cloud assim NESDIS cloud-top (verification)
RUC/MAPS 1-h cloud-top fcsts with and without GOES cloud-top assimilation (clearing and building) (1200 UTC 14 May 1999)
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1-h MAPS cloud-top fcst with previous GOES assimilation -- valid 18z 28 Oct 99
Visible satellite image at 1745z 28 Oct 99
Correspondence between MAPS cloud fcsts and sat images- improved with GOES cloud-top assimilation
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Control - no cloud analysis Parallel - with cloud analysis
September 1999 - fall
Significant improvement in RUC cloud-top forecasts withcloud analysis, esp. for 1-h forecasts, but smaller but consistent improvement even in 12-h forecasts
0.7
0.5
0.3
Cloud-top verification with and without initial cloud analysis - correlation coefficient between RUC forecasts and NESDIS cloud-top pressures
Julian date
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Verification of MAPS cloud-top fcsts against NESDIS product
Frequency scatter plot for each MAPS grid point
Cloud tops validSunday 21 Nov 991800 UTC
pres
9-h fcsts
1-h fcstsParallel runw/ GOES
Control runno GOES
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Impact of GOES cloud-top assimilation in MAPS parallel cycle test- July-August 1999
Improved 3h RH forecasts with GOES cloud assimilation,especially at 300-500 hPa. Less impact at 850-700 hPa.
w/ GOES No GOES
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Visible satellite image at 1745z 28 Oct 99
NESDISCloud-top product(sounder-based) 1800z 28 Oct 99
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Addition of national radar data to RUC cloud analysis
Access software for national radar (both 4km NEXRAD and 2km NOWRAD) data developed
Initial comparisons between GOES cloud-top pressures andnational radar data – both mapped to RUC 40km grid
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Apr 99 emergency change for RUC2
• Correctly uses raob sig-level temp/dewpoint data now.
• Previously, missed sig-level T/Td data (TTBB) and forced in linearly interpolated structures between mandatory levels.
• Significant improvement in RUC grid sounding structures and in overall RUC performance
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May 99 post-proc fixes for RUC2
• Bug/consistency fixes for diagnosis of sfc T/Td in RUC2. (fix to lapse rate range)– Biases in west US for T/Td reduced, 2 °C 0 – s.d. temps over US from 2.0 1.4 °C (verification against METAR obs)
• CAPE- searches lowest 300 mb, not 180 mb• More smoothing of isobaric winds in lower troposphere,
near tropopause• Use of NESDIS ice field• Much faster running of RUC - 10 procs for all runs
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June 99 fix to veg fraction bug
Vegetation fraction in RUC was erroneously set to zero due to integer/real problem (only a problem w/ NCEP RUC, not in FSL MAPS/RUC)
Responsible for warm bias from 2100-0900 UTC increasing during May. Also resulted in dry bias and too little precip
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July/Sept/Nov/Dec 1999 fixes
26 July - fix to moisture in RUC boundary conditionsfrom Eta- Eliminate erroneous precip near RUC boundariesespecially over warm oceans
28 Sept – start IBM version of RUC – faster post-processing21 Nov – fix canopy water cycling problem that had caused
too moist soil for about 1 weekDec ? – 8 new variables in post-processing – visibility, cloud base/top, sfc wind gust, PBL height, conv. Cld top, equilibrium level, pres of max theta-e
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RUC-2 Weaknesses
• Still some precip spin-up problem, despite cycling of cloud/precip variables, esp. for light precip/overrunning (1-3 hr late)
• Fix: Add cloud analysis - 1999 - 1st version, allow for cloud at RH < 100%
• Too much precip over warm oceans, too little near SE coast in cold season
• Dec 98 fix package helped some - work underway on fixing tendencies input to Grell convective parameterization
• Fix now running in backup RUC – look at web page prods• Daytime convective precip in summer too widespread
• Upcoming fix on tendencies input to Grell scheme• Fix now running in backup RUC
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RUC-2 Weaknesses, cont.• Convective precip forecasts miss many small areas, underforecast peak amounts.
– Lower equitable threat score than Eta– more detailed than Eta
• Too much graupel near 0ºC• Fix: with 20-km RUC (perhaps sooner), collaboration with FSL and NCAR on
microphysics fixes• Diurnal cycle of surface temperature a little too weak
– a little too warm at night• Dec 98 fix package - sfc flux change, radiation fix, GRIB precision to allow proper
soil moisture cycling• May 99 fix - improve diagnosis of sfc temp/Td diagnosis -- significant reduction in
bias• Upcoming fix to SW radiation 0-60 min phase delay
• Detailed (noisy?) output compared to other models, especially vertical velocity– Detail is probably realistic over terrain
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Fixed RUC-2 Weaknesses• Analysis sounding structure
– irregular near ground if only sfc data assimilatedFix: analysis tuning (Dec 98)Fix: sig-level bug fix (Apr 99) *****************
• CAPE/CIN– analysis values previously too high in high CAPE areas– jump between analysis and 1-h forecastsFix: CAPE software (Dec 98)(May 99 - parcel search now in lowest 300 mb, not 180 mb
layer)
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RUC-2 Strengths• Surface fields, especially surface winds
– sfc files• analysis and forecast
• small
• standard sfc fields plus precip, stability, precip type
• Topographically induced circulations– sea/lake breezes (scale too large but they’re there)– mtn/valley circulations– differential friction effects
• e.g. – Catalina eddy
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RUC-2 Strengths, cont.• Precipitation fields
– more detailed than Eta (lower FAR but lower POD)
• Snow accumulation– explicit, not diagnosed (from MM5 microphysics)
• Precipitation type– uses explicit hydrometeor mixing ratios/fall rates
• Upper-level features– hybrid / coordinate– winds, PV, temps, fronts, more coherent vorticity
structures on isobaric surfaces
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RUC-2 Strengths, cont.• Lower tropospheric temp/RH
– good fcst sounding structure (esp. after 4/99 fix)– hybrid coordinate
• Soil/hydro fields– soil moisture - cycled in 6-level soil model– surface runoff, canopy water, dew formation, etc.
• Vertical velocity– available in RUC-2– good mtn wave depiction, frontal features
• Hourly analyses– available much sooner than RUC-1 grids
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Mtn wave comparison - MesoEta vs. RUC2
RUCMesoEta
Theta
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MesoEta RUC
U - component
Mtn wave comparison - MesoEta vs. RUC
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W - vertical velocity
Mtn wave comparison - MesoEta vs. RUC
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20km RUC/MAPS topography - 2000
Will use • 20km versions of
• EOS veg data • 3-d STATSGO soil data
• improved data assimilation (sat cloud products, 3dVAR, later - radar, sfc cloud data, lightning, GPS IPW)
Subset of full domain
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13km RUC - 12h forecast - start 0000 UTC 27 October 1997
PrecipitationSurface winds
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7913km RUC - 6h forecast valid 06Z 27 Oct 97 6-h precipitation (cm), wind speed (m/s) in cross-section
1020
2025
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The Future of the RUC
• Transfer of current 40km RUC2 to IBM SP – completed Sept 1999– faster, distributed post-processing
• 20 km 1 hr version on IBM SP– Probably by summer 2000– 3-d variational analysis– Cloud/hydrometeor analysis using satellite combined
with explicit cloud fcsts in RUC-2• Later, assimilation of new data sets: radar, sfc cloud obs, sat.
cloudy/clear radiances (GOES/POES), hourly precipitation analyses, WSR-88D radial winds, lightning, GPS precipitable water, sat water vapor winds
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The Future of the RUC, cont.
– Improved physical parameterizations, including cloud microphysics (freezing drizzle), surface physics (frozen soil, high-resolution soil and surface data sets), and turbulence physics
• Higher resolution versions
– 13-15 km/60 level - 2001
• Applications to air quality, coupled air chemistry?
• Extensive NAOS observation sensitivity tests
• WRF version of RUC
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The Future of the RUC, cont.• Non-hydrostatic z model under development
– Generalized vertical coordinate– Nudging of coordinate surfaces toward “grid generator”
• can be set as smoothed quasi-isentropic hybrid coordinate – treats sub~20km variations (convective clouds, breaking mountain
waves) w/ quasi-horizontal coordinates
– treats >20km variations w/ z coordinates
– Collaboration between University of Miami (Rainer Bleck, Zuwen He), FSL (John Brown, Stan Benjamin), and NCAR (Bill Skamarock)
– Part of WRF model (Weather Research and Forecast - NCAR/FSL/NCEP/CAPS) effort - a generalized vertical coordinate option.
– WRF-based RUC probably by 2005-6 at 5-8 km scale– 30-min cycle or finer?
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Quasi-isentropic option for WRF non-hydrostatic model
Breaking mountain wave simulation - 2 km horizontal resolutionSigma-z version Quasi-isentropic version
Thick -
Thin - coordinate surfaces
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Rapid Update Cycle – Present and Next Version1999 Operations 2000-01 Operations
Resolution 40 km, 40levels 2013-15 km, 40 50-60 levels
Analysis Optimal interpolation on 3-d variational technique on generalized on generalized surfaces surfaces, hydrometeor analysis w/
GOES…, use raw instead of interp. obsAssimilation Intermittent 1-h cycle Intermittent 1-h cycle
Stable clouds Mixed-phase cloud microphysics MM5), Improved microphysics, / precipitation explicit fcst of cloud water, rain water, addition of drizzle
snow, ice, graupel, no. concentration of ice particles
Sub-grid-scale Grell (1993) Modified Grell, scale dependence, precipitation shallow convection, interaction w/
cloud microphysics Turbulence Burk-Thompson explicit TKE scheme Refined Burk-Thompson or e-
Radiation MM5 LW/SW scheme, f(hydrometeors) Refined MM5 scheme
Land-sfc processes 6-level soil/veg model (Smirnova, Add vertical soil type variability, 1997, 1999) w/ frozen soil, 2-layer snow improved cold season processes
Sfc conditions Daily 50km SST/14 km LST, Combine sat Tskin, use 3-d soil type 0.14 monthly NDVI veg frac, cycled soil moisture/temp, snow depth/temp
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Feedback
• Send feedback/questions on RUC performance to the RUC discussion forum.
• Invite us to workshops.
http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/forum/eval