optoelectronics industry perspective - ucsb talks pdf/yang.pdf · – new consumer/personal devices...

OIDA OPTOELECTRONICS INDUSTRYDEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

Optoelectronics Industry Perspective

Andrew YangConsultant to OIDA

University of California, Santa BarbaraSolid State Technology Review

November 19, 2002


About OIDA• OIDA is a 60-member North America-based association of

optoelectronics-related firms• OIDA’s Activities:

– New Business Development• Market studies, Future Vision

– Technology Advancement• Technology roadmaps, University Centers, PTAP

– Infrastructure Improvement• Manufacturing advancement, Standards promotion

– Industry Advocacy• Forum for users and suppliers• Recommendations to the Government


Today’s Talk

• World optoelectronics market update– Communications in turmoil, others weak

• A few things OIDA is doing– NGLI (Next Generation Lighting Initiative)– PTAP (Photonics Technology Access Program)– Broadband

• Some personal prospectives


The Scope of Optoelectronics

• OE technology enables numerous high-value applications• Major enabled product groups

– Fiber communications• Lasers, detectors, modules, passive, optical fiber, equipment…

– Information display• Flat panel monitors, notebooks, handhelds,…

– Digital imaging• Sensor arrays, displays, scanners, cameras, disk storage,…

– Data storage and entertainment• CD rewritable media, lasers, detectors, DVD/CD players, …

– Energy Conversion• LED lighting, photovoltaics, …


Optoelectronics-enabled MarketsSelected Optoelectronic-enabled Products

2001 Total: $111 billion

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Fiber-basedTelecom andDatacom eq.

Computer OptDrives

Scanners andCameras

Computersand Displayequipment

$ Bi

llions 1999

20002001


OE Components Sales in 2001

Total: $56 Billion

Flat Panel Display$22.5B

Fiber & Cable$9.9BConnectors &

Hwe., $2.4B

Modules $3.2B

Sources & Det, $11.5B

Storage Media$5.2B

Passives $0.9B


Summary of 2001 OE Markets

Total OE Market Estimates

02040

6080

100120140

160180200

1999 2000 2001

$ B

illion

s

Enabled products Components

• Components revenues fell 20% to $56B

• Enabled products almost flat

• Declines will continue through 2002 with some recovery in ‘03


Communications Equipment Orders - U.S.

New Orders - Total Communications Equipment

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

J'00 A J O J'01 A J O J'02 A J OMonth

$ M

illio

ns Moving 3 month Average

Source: US Census Bureau


Carrier TroublesFor the 7 top US carriers...• Long distance revenues

fell 11%• Local voice revenues

dropped 2.3%• Data services up 15%• Overall wireline revenues

actually increased 3%• But profits dropped 56%

Top 10 Global Telecoms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01$

billi

ons

Revenues/10 Profits

Sources: ITU, Corp. reports


Global Optical Transport Forecast

0

510

15

20

25

30

35

4045

50

$ B

illion

s

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Regional Spending on Optical Comm Equipment

North America EuropeAsia/Pacific ROW

Source: RHK

• Modest recovery worldwide for optical communications

• North America will not recover until ‘03– Fiber flat for a long time

• Carriers returning to historic capex levels– 15-20% of revenue vs 35%

at the peak


Quarterly Telecom Equipment Revenues

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

$US

Mill

ions

July 2000 2001 2002

Second Quarter Revenues for Nortel, Lucent, Alcatel

NTLUALA

Source: Company reports


Production Workers in Communications

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 38% job loss since 1997• 42% decline in shipments in 2 yrs• Imports have exceeded exports

since 1999• In ‘01 the trade balance was -$11B


Display Market Forecast by Technology

Forecasted Display Revenues (including CRTs)

0102030405060708090

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

$ B

illio

ns

OLEDOtherPDPPM LCDAM LCDCRT

Source: DisplaySearch


Growth of Digital Imaging

Digital Camera:– Market value ~

$5B in 2001– Forecast ~ $10B

by 2006

Unit Sales of Cameras (Excluding single-use products)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Units in Millions

FilmDigital

Source: Gartner Dataquest


Optical Storage Markets

Optical Disk Drives, Worldwide ($13B)

CD-ROM$3.5B, 27%

Re-write$7.5B,58%

DVD-ROM$7.5B, 15%

• Optical disk drive production rose slightly in 2001

• Rewritable and DVD have overtaken CD-ROM

• Rewritable and high density (blue laser) DVDs are on the way

• DVD players* outsold VCRs in 2001

* Not included on chart


DVD Player Sales by RegionSales Forecast of DVD Players by Region

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Thousands of Units

China Asia Japan Europe Central/South America North America

Source: Philips/CMI


Next Generation Lighting Initiative (NGLI)

• General lighting requires long term investment, it is too risky for industry alone. Other countries have government-industry consortia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan)

• NGLI is a cooperative program between US industry and government to accelerate the commercialization of solid state lighting

• The Department of Energy represents Government

• The Next Generation Lighting Consortium (NGLC) represents industry


PTAP

Stimulating New Uses for OEPhotonics Technology Access Program

Sponsored by DARPA and NSF

As PTAP’s broker, OIDA makes state-of-the-art, pre-commercial

photonics technology available for academic research and teaching


PTAPBenefits to Universities

• Access to devices not available commercially– At no cost to researcher - proposal required– Paid from researchers own funds - no proposal required

• Source of supporting technology– Drivers– Logic devices– Packaging– Materials

• Build relationships with industry• Graduate students train on state-of-art technology


PTAP

Benefits to industry• Access to university research base• Technical feedback

– New applications– Device performance

• Recruitment pool of graduates versed in leading edge technology

• Early market for prototypes


Broadband Access is a Thorny Problem -It’s not only Technology!

BusinessModels

BusinessModels

Technology

Regulation


Some Observations

• Broadband will be the engine for economic growth– Worldwide belief

• Infrastructure/applications is a “chicken & egg” problem, but progress can be made in tandem

• Time is critical for massive deployment of broadband access


Worldwide Broadband Penetration

0 5 10 15

Korea

Canada

Sweden

USA

Netherlands

Austria

Denmark

Belgium

Subscribers per 100 inhabitants, June 2001

DSLCableFiber

Source: OECD


US Broadband Households by Data Rate

This may be too slow!Source: Technology Futures, Inc.


A Personal Perspective

During the last decade:• WDM firmly established in telecom• VCSEL-based interconnects widely used in

computing system & datacom• Microdisplays are ubiquitous• Optically-controlled phased-array antenn deployed• Large diameter GaAs, InP, & SiC substrates

available


What’s Not Been Done in Technology• Many high performance optoelectronic

devices were developed….BUT

• Very little integration…– Especially, no integration technology for

passives such as • Isolators • Waveguides• Etc.


Infrastructure Trends

• Disappearance of industrial R&D centers– These were the engines for high-tech innovation – Government must act to replace this resource– New centers should be focused on shorter term specific

goals

• Massive foundry movement offshore– There will be significant economic fallout – Also, this trend endangers national defense readiness


Where Can We Succeed?

• Dispersal of manufacturing to low-cost labor countries is probably irreversible…– Following the well-traveled road of other industries

• Our comparative advantage lies in complex innovative design with highly-integrated technologies– eg, microprocessors– Innovation without manufacturing is not viable– Use comparative advantage to retain critical

manufacturing capability


Looking Forward:OIDA’s Future Vision Workshop – Some Themes

• Attributes of OE products going forward:– Small, Smart, Cheap, Low power

• Opportunities across applications:– More connectivity– New consumer/personal devices & services– High tech as a defense/security advantage– More bandwidth to the consumer!

• Promising new technology areas– Bio-photonics is a rich source of new devices– Clean energy: solid state lighting, photovoltaics– Smart sensors and optical sensor networks


OIDA Planned Events

San Diego, CAWorkshop: BiophotonicsOct 1-2, 2003

Santa Barbara, CAWorkshop: LEDsJul 16-17, 2003

Palo Alto, CAWorkshop: Residential Broadband

Apr 22-23, 2003

Washington, DCOIDA Annual ForumNov 20-21, 20

LOCATIONEVENTDATE

optoelectronics industry perspective - ucsb talks pdf/yang.pdf · – new consumer/personal devices...

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