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University of Idaho 2018 Virtual Conference 2/14/2018

Gerry Pedraza ‐ Turbocharging 100+Participants F2F Courses with Online Group Simulations 1

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Turbocharging 100+Participants F2F Courses with Online Group

Simulations

Gerry Pedraza, MAIsmail Capar, PhD



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http://socrative.com

May I have your email?



Room: IDAHONO SPACES

OR

Gerry Pedraza, MAIsmail Capar, PhD

[email protected]://gerrypedraza.com

Let’s continue the discussion



PRESENTER’S OBJECTIVES

• Demonstrate how using every-day technology tools can increase engagement and improve the student learning experience.

• Facilitate a simulation exercise, similar to what our students experience, to get the audience in the shoes of the students.

• Discuss how elements of gaming can be used to increase realism in a simlulation.• Obtain feedback of ways to improve the current simulation.

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TEACHING TEAM



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http://socrative.com

Most important aspect of a simulation?



Room: IDAHONO SPACES

OR

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DURING THE PRESENTATION

• Be thinking about the characteristics of:– Active Learning

• Instructor as facilitator• Learning by doing• Apply previous knowledge to create new

– Authentic Activity• Real-world context

– Gaming Elements• Unpredictability• Storytelling & Roleplaying• Competition



Why was it created?

HOW THE SIMULATION ORIGINATED

Dr. Capar was teaching a logistics class important skill was demand forecasting

learned how to use math methodsnot getting an important aspect

the world is unpredictable

Why this process was started…



students were getting the knowledgebut he needed a way to make it immersive

developed an authentic activitystudents assume the role of consultants

forecast the sales of a product

So he started thinking what was needed

information about the simulated worldteam analysis of information

mathematical method selectionand also tweak their predictionsfinally submit an educated guess

To add elements of gaming and realism…



the class period changed 75 -> 45wanted to include both sections

eliminate space restrictionssimplify class management

build online tool skills

Why was it moved online?

14Gerry Pedraza ‐ Turbocharging 100+Participants F2F Courses with Online Group Simulations

What does the class pace looks like?

EXAMPLE OF ONLINE INTERACTION



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WHY USE BB COLLABORATE AND SOCRATIVE

• BB Collaborate– BB Collaborate is integrated in our LMS.– Can hold 150 participants easily.– Manages interaction well and microphone use.– We had very few technical issues.– Can have breakout rooms.

• Socrative– Can manage the pace through the application– Can be used in Android, iOS, and browsers– Can output reports in CSV format– Paid version holds 150 participants



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WHEN PLAYING ONLINE

Instructor ModeratorProvide

Guidance & Instruction

Control Pace / Microphone

Students

Virtual Classroom Management

Attendance / View Responses

Analyze Information

Apply Previous Knowledge to Solve a Problem

Assessment

Export Results

Collaborate / Teamwork

Provide Feedback Respond / Reflect

Troubleshooting

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GAMEPLAY AND FEEDBACK

• All students have to log in to the virtual classroom environment.• They are grouped in teams of 5 totaling approximately 50 to 60 groups.• Student groups join in person but interact with others online.• The simulation is played in two rounds, totaling more than two hours.• The professor can call any students and ask questions and give feedback.

– Usually calls someone that had a very good response to have them explain their thought process so all can benefit from it.

• There is attendance taken through the system.• Each team’s captain joins to Socrative so there is only one response per

team.



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GAME MECHANICS TURN WORKFLOW

Socrative StudentSocrative InstructorCollaborate

Visual: Information Displayed

Audio: Explanation

Audio + Visual:Question Asked

Visual:Question Asked

Visual:Question Received

Student Groups

Collaboration, Analysis & Processing

Decision MakingVisual:

Responses Received

Visual:Response Sent

Control: Pace and QuestionsAudio:

Responses

Audio + Visual:Instruction & Feedback

Make sure you are ready to participate through Socrative.

LET’S GET READY TO START!



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ARE YOU READY TO START?

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ONLINE SIMULATION

• A day before the simulation students receive:– Their team information– Rules of the game– Previous year sales data, that they use as reference



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WELCOME TO LURE, CORP.

• It’s 1997. • Employee orientation.• In 1996 Lure Corp, launched the X2 line of

fishing lures.• You have been hired as part of the sales

forecasting team.

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YOUR MISSION

• Use the data you have for 1996 to make predictions about 1997 sales.– Past year sales.– A simple mathematical method:

• Moving average tool– Information disclosed periodically.– Your own experience.

AVG=(M1+M2+M3)/3



Forecasting Game

IDIS 343 NEWSForecasting Since 1801

Can You Catch More Fish?Victoria, TX based Lure, Corp. says their fishing lures can increase the amount of fish caught.The X2 fishing lure has been a good product since its introduction in January 1996. “Sales revenue has been beyond our expectations,” one employee said indicating they would like to focus more on

releasing the X3 new model of the product in the future that will revolutionize the sport.The company is planning to hire a new team of consultants from U IDAHO to help them with forecasting and demand planning, but hasn’t officially made the announcement yet.



What number would your forecast for January 1997?

The sales for January 1996 totaled 0.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan‐96 Feb‐96 Mar‐96 Apr‐96 May‐96 Jun‐96 Jul‐96 Aug‐96 Sep‐96 Oct‐96 Nov‐96 Dec‐96

The sales for January 1997 were 108.

How did you do with your forecast?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


108




Stockout Is Hurting Fishing Lure SalesCustomer complaints are soaring.

The Lure Corp. fishing lures are out of stock and many local fishing enthusiastic and outdoor store are complaining about the stockouts.

Employee of a local fishing store claimed the lack of inventories is the reason for low sales numbers rather than people loosing

interests in the new fishing lure showing store shelves.

Is it a hype?

An analyst working for the Pessimistic & Associates, says that the low sales numbers indicate that Lure, Corp. is innovative with their products and predicts that the sales may go even below the current levels.

What number would you forecast for February 1997?

The sales for February 1996 totaled 108.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


108



The actual sales for February 1997 were 72.

Did you expected the drop in sales due to the stockout?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

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108

168

132

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100

200

300

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500

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72

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Lure, Corp. Is Back in BusinessThe Victoria TX based lure company has hired a new manager, and has seen an increase in sales.

The new production manager will be working closely with the sales forecasting team to avoid any supply problems.

No More Stockouts!

With this new hiring the company looks to avoid having stockouts in the future.



What number would you forecast for March 1997?

The sales for last March 1996 totaled 156.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


108

72

The actual sales for March 1997 were 252.

Did you expected the increase in sales?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

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New Lures and More…New colors and fragrance on new X3 lure models were designed to attract local fish types.

Victoria, TX based Lure, Co. has released a new lure line.

Some prestigious fishermen part of a test group, are seeing a considerable impact on how many fish they are catching.

However there is a skeptical group of lure experts saying that these fishermen were paid to promote products.

Rumors are starting to spread over social media. Lure Co, social media team is trying to put this fire off.

What number would you forecast for April 1997?

The sales for April 1996 totaled 228.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

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Spreading Rumors Hit Lure Corp.Rumors on social media about paying local fishermen spread.

Victoria, TX based company has been involved in a possible publicity stunt.

Lure, Corp. CIO denies any claims about paying local fishermen to promote their lures.

“Our new lures are so great they speak by themselves,” Mr. Jones told IDIS 343 News.

We tried to interview the supposed paid fishermen group but they refused to comment.

Actual sales for April were 180.

What do you think about the rumors?

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108

156

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384

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492

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252

108

168

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0

100

200

300

400

500

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180

252

108

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What number would you forecast for May 1997?

The sales for last May 1996 totaled 384.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

72

180


Lure, Co. Is Off The Hook!Rumors cleared, and new research proves new lures work better than the competition.

Lure, Co. predicts an increase in sales now that the rumor has been cleared. It was actually the competition who paid a group of fishermen to spread

rumors about Lure, Co.

With their reputation clear, and by publishing a new study that shows how new lures attract more fish than before, Lure, Co. is off the hook.



The actual sales for May 1997 were 360.

Did you expected the growth in sales?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


360

252

108

72

180


Fishing Tournament Registration Open

Lure Co, sponsor giving out prizes on tournament.

Victoria, TX based company will be giving out substantial prizes to the 4 first places in July’s tournament.

Also all participants will get free samples of their X3 prototype lures.



What number would you forecast for June 1997?

The sales for last June 1996 totaled 432.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

360

72

180

The actual sales for June 1997 were 504.

How did your team do forecasting this month?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


504

252

108

360

72

180




Tournament Winners Interviewed

The four winners of the past tournament were interviewed.

It was surprising to find that 2 out of four tournament winners were using the prototypes of the new X3 new models of Lure, Co.

Although the fishing season is almost over there might still be a few fishermen out there that want to try the new lures by themselves.

It could go either way for the sole producer of these new lures this time…

What number would your forecast for July 1997?

The sales for last July 1996 totaled 492.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

504

360

72

180



The actual sales for July 1997 were 564.

How do you think the tournament affected the sales?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


564

252

108

504

360

72

180


Extreme Weather PredictionsMeteorologists anticipate that the extreme weather will clear soon.

Texas fishermen start to take precautions even the predictions are that the weather will clear soon.



What number would you forecast for August 1997?

The sales for last August 1996 totaled 420.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

504

360

564

72

180


Tornado Hits The AreaTourists and fishermen were surprised by the tornado.

Because were possibilities of the tornado hitting the area were scarce, It caught many residents off guard. Fortunately there were no human casualties to report.



The actual sales for August 1997 were 276.

Why do you think the sales dropped dramatically?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

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276

252

108

504

360

564

72

180


Volunteers Made Quick Recovery PossibleThe Mayor was pleased to see so many volunteers.

Although the area was hit by a tornado the community has been able to repair the damage because of the large number of volunteers that arrived.

The docks in the area have been rebuilt and have been built to

withstand more severe weather.

Fishermen are glad that they can go use their boats for the last part of the year.



What number would you forecast for September 1997?

The sales for September 1996 totaled 252.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

504

360

564

276

72

180

The actual sales for September 1997 were 336.

Were your predictions on the spot?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

504

360

564

276

72

180

336




Fall Festival In TownPumpkins everywhere!

Fall is in and everyone is getting ready for the cold weather.

Coat sales have started to rise and candy is actually selling like candy.

Costume shops are starting to appear everywhere. Get yours soon!

What number would you forecast for October 1997?

The sales for October 1996 totaled 108.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

504

360

564

276

336

72

180



The actual sales for October 1997 were 260.


0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


260252

108

504

360

564

276

336

72

180


The Cold Front Is HereA major cold front will push through South Texas.

An artic cold wave hits the area well ahead of its normal seasons.

The cold front dropped from Canada and has been persistent over much of USA over the last two weeks.

It is expected that some icing might occur on bridges. People are urged not to travel if is not required.

Multiple vehicle accidents occurred across South Texas due to the icy roads and bridges.



What number would you forecast for November 1997?

The sales for last November 1996 totaled 168.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

504

360

564

260

276

336

The actual sales for November 1997 were 72.


0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

72

504

180

360

564

260

276

336

72




The Cold Is Not LeavingTexas has never been this cold.

The third artic cold wave in the this weeks continues to effect the region negatively. The National Weather Service issued a freeze warning for Central and South Texas.

Victoria, TX based company, Lure Corp., announced that their fishing lure sales has dropped second month in a row.

The company blames persistent cold front for lower demand.

What number would you forecast for December 1997?

The sales for last December 1997 totaled 132.

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

72

504

180

360

564

260

276

336

72



The actual sales for December 1997 were 60.

How did you do overall?

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


252

108

72

504

180

360

564

260

276

336

72

60

End of Round One

Thank you for participating!

0

108

156

228

384

432

492

420

252

108

168

132

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


60

252

108

504

360

564

260

276

336

72

180

72

Stockout Back orders

Tornado

Marketing Efforts

Cold Front



focused on the expert elementResults of calculations given upfront

forecasting more about analysisinformation is power

knowing how to use it is more powerful

Simulation played in two rounds…

STUDENT FEEDBACK

• Great way to learn forecasting.• Forecasting is a difficult skill to master.• It was awesome collaborating in groups.• I did not expect a tornado!• I wanted to quit after the first round but I started enjoying it later.• We needed more information about the rules.



IMPROVEMENTS DONE

• Better instructions.• Make clear that just the team captain enters socrative.• Login Collaborate 30 minutes before to troubleshoot problems.• Always use the timer before closing polls.

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Let’s Discuss

– Active Learning– Authentic Activity– Gaming Elements– Questions?– Recommendations?

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