othree chemistry mm5/camx modeling for the 16-20 sept ’00 episode: process analysis problem...

OThree Chemistry

MM5/CAMx Modeling for the MM5/CAMx Modeling for the 16-20 Sept ’00 Episode:16-20 Sept ’00 Episode:

Process Analysis Problem DefinitionProcess Analysis Problem Definition

Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 3

T. W. TescheDennis McNallyHarvey Jeffries

3 December 2003

OThree Chemistry Process Analysis Problem Process Analysis Problem DefinitionDefinition

Identification of key analysis subregions Examination of BaseA ozone and NOx time series Examination of surface wind and temperatures Examination of local PBL heights Examination of aloft aircraft measurements Subregional (SJV) ozone and NOx performance

statistics

OThree Chemistry

Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 16 Sept Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 16 Sept ‘00‘00

CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry


CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry

MPE Statistics on Two GridsMPE Statistics on Two Grids

CAMx Base A

Date Day ATS AS AT AU A-MEAN N. Bias Bias N. Error Error Var Max. O Max. P16-Sep 260 23.9 -10.5 -8.3 21.5 13.3 181.7 97.0 78.417-Sep 261 27.3 -24.6 -19.0 30.3 21.9 301.4 125.0 90.218-Sep 262 30.2 -29.9 -24.6 34.4 26.9 456.7 165.0 94.519-Sep 263 28.6 -23.4 -21.0 31.7 25.2 495.3 145.0 98.720-Sep 264 28.1 -25.3 -20.3 30.1 22.8 316.7 135.0 99.0

Average 27.6 -22.7 -18.6 29.6 22.0 350.4 133.4 92.2

4 Km Analysis DomainDomainTable 1a. SJ V Subarea MM5/CAMx 1- hr Ozone MPE for 13- 20 September '00.

Date Day ATS AS AT AU A-MEAN N. Bias Bias N. Error Error Var Max. O Max. P16-Sep 260 -42.8 -33.5 -35.9 -19.2 16.0 3.3 0.2 17.4 9.3 142.7 97.0 78.417-Sep 261 -44.4 -43.4 -40.6 -27.9 23.8 -0.3 -2.8 22.2 13.1 285.7 125.0 90.218-Sep 262 -54.7 -54.5 -52.4 -42.7 22.8 1.0 -3.0 25.2 15.2 395.7 165.0 94.519-Sep 263 -52.1 -52.1 -50.9 -31.9 23.9 0.0 -3.9 24.3 15.4 388.0 145.0 98.720-Sep 264 -45.0 -45.0 -37.1 -26.7 24.0 -6.6 -7.7 24.8 16.3 352.7 135.0 99.0

Average -47.8 -45.7 -43.4 -29.7 22.1 -0.5 -3.5 22.8 13.9 313.0 133.4 92.2

4 Km Grid DomainTable 1b. BaseA MM5/CAMx 1- hr Ozone MPE for 13- 20 September '00.

OThree Chemistry

Average Peak Accuracy over All Average Peak Accuracy over All StationsStations

CAMx Base A

Average Peak Accuracy over All Stations, (%).

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

19-Sep

20-Sep

Averag

e

Gros

s Er

ror,

%

SJV SubareaBase A

OThree Chemistry

Bias (ppb) In Hourly Ozone PredictionBias (ppb) In Hourly Ozone Prediction

CAMx Base A

Absolute Bias in 1- Hr OzoneConcentration Predictions, (ppb).

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.016

-Sep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

Aver

age

Bias

, pp

b

SJV SubareaBase A

OThree Chemistry

Bias (%) in Hourly Ozone PredictionBias (%) in Hourly Ozone Prediction

CAMx Base A

Normalized Bias in 1- Hr OzoneConcentration Predictions, (%).

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.016

-Sep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

Aver

age

Bias

, %

SJV SubareaBase A

OThree Chemistry

Error (%) In Hourly Ozone PredictionError (%) In Hourly Ozone Prediction

CAMx Base A

Normalized Gross Error in 1- Hr Ozone Concentration Predictions, (%).

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

19-Sep

20-Sep

Average

Gros

s Er

ror,

%

SJV SubareaBase A

OThree Chemistry 4 km Analysis Domain4 km Analysis Domain

Fresno Subarea

Bakersfield Subarea

Sacramento Subarea

OThree Chemistry San Joaquin Diagnostic SubareasSan Joaquin Diagnostic Subareas

Fresno Subarea

Bakersfield Subarea

SHA: Shafter

OLD: Oildale

BGS: Golden St.

BAC: California St.

EDS: Edison

ARV: Arvin

M29: Madera

FSS: Fresno SkyPark

CLO: Clovis

FSF: First Street

FSD: Drummond

PLR: Parlier

OThree Chemistry Sacramento Diagnostic SubareasSacramento Diagnostic Subareas

Sacramento Subarea

ELK: Elk Grove

FLN: Folsom

NAT: Natomas

PGV: Pleasant Grove

ROC: Rocklin

ROS: Roseville

S13: T Street

SDP: Del Paso

SLU: Sloughouse

WLN: Woodland

SNH: North Highlands

OThree Chemistry Base_A Ozone Time Series: Sacramento Base_A Ozone Time Series: Sacramento SubareaSubarea

CAMx Base A

ELK: Elk Grove (031)

SLU: Sloughouse (040)

OThree Chemistry Base_A NOx Time Series: Sacramento Base_A NOx Time Series: Sacramento SubareaSubarea

CAMx Base A

ELK: Elk Grove (031)

NAT: Natoma (032)

OThree Chemistry Base_A Ozone Time Series: Fresno SubareaBase_A Ozone Time Series: Fresno Subarea

CAMx Base A

M29: Madera (041)

FSS: Sierra Skypark (037)


CAMx Base A

CLO: Clovis (032)

FSF: First Street (036)


CAMx Base A

FSD: Drummond (035)

PLR: Parlier (045)

OThree Chemistry Base_A Ozone Time Series: Bakersfield Base_A Ozone Time Series: Bakersfield SubareaSubarea

CAMx Base A

SHA: Shafter (046)

OLD: Oildale (044)


CAMx Base A

BGS: Golden St. (031)

BAC: California St. (030)


CAMx Base A

EDS: Edison (033)

ARV: Arvin (029)

OThree Chemistry Base_A NOx Time Series: Fresno SubareaBase_A NOx Time Series: Fresno Subarea

CAMx Base A

M29: Madera (038)

FSS: Sierra Skypark (035)


CAMx Base A

CLO: Clovis (031)

FSF: First Street (034)


CAMx Base A

FSD: Drummond (033)

PLR: Parlier (040)


CAMx Base A

SOH: Stockton (033)

OThree Chemistry Base_A NOx Time Series: Bakersfield Base_A NOx Time Series: Bakersfield SubareaSubarea

CAMx Base A

SHA: Shafter (041)

OLD: Oildale (039)


CAMx Base A

BGS: Golden St. (030)

BAC: California St. (029)


CAMx Base A

EDS: Edison (032)

ARV: Arvin (028)

OThree Chemistry MM5 Run 4 Surface TemperaturesMM5 Run 4 Surface Temperatures

CAMx Base A

KFAT: Fresno (016)

KBFL: Bakersfield (009)

OThree Chemistry MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Fresno (KFAT)MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Fresno (KFAT)

CAMx Base A

17 Sept ’00 (119)

18 Sept ’00 (120)

OThree Chemistry MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Fresno (KFAT)MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Fresno (KFAT)

CAMx Base A

19 Sept ’00 (121)

20Sept ’00 (122)

OThree Chemistry MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Bakersfield MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Bakersfield (KBFL)(KBFL)

CAMx Base A

17 Sept ’00 (056)

18 Sept ’00 (057)

OThree Chemistry MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Bakersfield MM5 Run 4 Surface Winds at Bakersfield (KBFL)(KBFL)

CAMx Base A

19 Sept ’00 (058)

20Sept ’00 (059)

OThree Chemistry 4 Km Process Analysis 4 Km Process Analysis SubareasSubareas

othree chemistry mm5/camx modeling for the 16-20 sept ’00 episode: process analysis problem...

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