crgaqs: camx psat results

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt

CRGAQS:CAMx PSAT Results

Presentation to theGorge Study Technical Team

ByENVIRON International Corporation

January 10, 2007


Today’s Presentation

• Recap recommendations from last call• Describe latest CAMx simulation

– Use of PSAT on the August 2004 Base Year scenario

• Next Steps


Recap

• Recommendations from last call:– Focus on August episode

• Run 2018 Case• Run PSAT for 2004• Run 5 “What-if” scenarios for 2018• Use model trends in relative sense to scale

IMPROVE observations– Relegate November episode

• Revisit with possible follow-on funding?


PM Source Apportionment Technology

• What is PSAT?– Emissions of PM and gas precursors are

stratified by source category and by source region

– Tracers are used to tag emissions from each category-region pair and to track their transport, chemical evolution, and fate


PM Source Apportionment Technology

– Tracers are run for species groups:• Sulfur (SO2 and PSO4)• Nitrogen (NOx, NOy, nitric acid, ammonia,

PNO3, and PNH4)• Organics (VOC, condensable hydrocarbon

products, and SOA components)• Primary PM (carbonaceous, fine/coarse dust,

and fine/coarse other PM)


PSAT for August 2004 Base Case

• Quantify source attribution at Mt Zion and Wishram

• 12 source categories by 6 source regions– 10 source categories + IC + BC– Region 6 handles all emissions outside the 4-km

grid

• Sulfur, nitrogen, and primary PM groups• Organics: let core model report biogenic vs.

anthropogenic apportionment



-2160 -2088 -2016 -1944 -1872 -1800 -1728 -1656 -1584648

720

792

864

936

1008

1080

1152

Source Region M ap - 4km dom ain1. In-G orge2. Portland3. N orthW est o f G orge4. W est o f G orge5. East of G orge

(LC P Defin ition: -97, 40, 45, 33)

1

2

5

4

3



• Source categories:– On-road mobile sources– Non-road mobile sources– Ammonia sources– Other area sources– Electric generating units (EGU)– Pulp mills– Wildfires– Other fires– Other point sources– All emissions outside the 4-km grid



• 6x10 category/region matrix + IC/BC = 62 unique tracers

• Sulfur (2 species), Nitrogen (7 species), primary PM (6 species) for each tracer– Total = 930 total tracers in PSAT

• To “fit” the model into memory:– Run only the 4- and 12-km grids

• 36-km grid results used to extract 12-km BC’s– 10-day spin-up was not run for PSAT

• 12-km 3-D concentration fields on August 10 used as IC’s



• PSAT results were post-processed for two monitoring sites along the Columbia River:– Mt Zion, and Wishram– Report results for the episode-average source

apportionment (August 10-22)– Tables presented for “top” ranked emission

category-region pairings• Represent 90%+ mass concentrations for each

species


Top PSO4 Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] BC 0.3836 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.1542 NW of Gorge EGUs 0.07657 IC 0.04563 NW of Gorge Other points 0.03852 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.03714 NW of Gorge Pulp mills 0.03264 Portland Nonroad 0.02584 Portland Other area 0.02519 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.02367 Portland Pulp mills 0.02045

Episode average PSO4 contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 0.95 ug/m3

00.05

0.10.15

0.20.25

0.30.35

0.40.45

Gor

ge

Port

land

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildf ires

Other fires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top PNO3 Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Portland Nonroad 0.06103 Gorge Nonroad 0.05965 Portland Onroad mobile 0.05833 BC 0.0488 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.03263 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.02362 West of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01977 West of Gorge Nonroad 0.01708 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.013 Portland Other area 0.01254 NW of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01063 Portland Pulp mills 0.00902 Gorge Other area 0.008433

Episode average PNO3 contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 0.42 ug/m3

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.140.16

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildf ires

Other fires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top PNH4 Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Portland Ammonia 0.04374 Gorge Ammonia 0.03583 Portland Onroad mobile 0.0167 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.008871 Portland Other area 0.008059 West of Gorge Ammonia 0.006623 East of Gorge Ammonia 0.003564 NW of Gorge Ammonia 0.003517 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.002693

Episode average PNH4 contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 0.14 ug/m3

00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08

Gor

ge

Por

tland

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

Eas

t of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top PEC Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Portland Nonroad 0.1926 Gorge Nonroad 0.103 Portland Onroad mobile 0.06725 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.06478 Portland Other area 0.04775 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.04643 Gorge Other area 0.02496 West of Gorge Nonroad 0.02393 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.02027 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.01577 West of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01501 Episode average PEC contributions to Mt Zion

Total = 0.68 ug/m3

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.35

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top POA Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Portland Other area 0.2738 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.213 Gorge Other area 0.1629 Portland Nonroad 0.09992 Gorge Nonroad 0.06057 Portland Onroad mobile 0.06031 BC 0.04996 West of Gorge Other area 0.04022 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.03175 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.02442 NW of Gorge Other area 0.02191 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01963 NW of Gorge Other points 0.01784

Episode average POA contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 1.19 ug/m3

00.05

0.10.15

0.20.25

0.30.35

0.40.45

0.5

Gor

ge

Port

land

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Fine Dust Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Gorge Onroad mobile 0.02134 Portland Onroad mobile 0.0113 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.01069 IC 0.004678 Portland Other area 0.004568 NW of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.003551 BC 0.003151 West of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.002876 West of Gorge Other area 0.002114

Episode average Fine Dust contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 0.0695 ug/m3

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildf ires

Other fires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Other Fine PM Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Portland Other area 0.4017 Gorge Other area 0.1009 West of Gorge Other area 0.05385 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.04719 NW of Gorge EGUs 0.04485 NW of Gorge Other area 0.04058 NW of Gorge Other points 0.03197 Portland Other points 0.02517 East of Gorge Other area 0.01512 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.01434 Portland Pulp mills 0.01398

Episode average Other Fine PM contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 0.86 ug/m3

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.450.5

Gor

ge

Por

tland

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

Eas

t of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Coarse Dust Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Gorge Onroad mobile 0.1351 Portland Onroad mobile 0.04617 Gorge Other area 0.01216 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.007102 Portland Other area 0.006164

Episode average Coarse Dust contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 0.22 ug/m3

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.140.16

Gor

ge

Port

land

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

Eas

t of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Episode average Other Coarse PM contributions to Mt ZionTotal = 1.29 ug/m3

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildf ires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile

Top Other Coarse PM Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m3] Portland Other area 0.8899 Gorge Other area 0.09676 BC 0.07764 Portland Other points 0.03675 Portland Other fires 0.02368 NW of Gorge Pulp mills 0.0209 NW of Gorge Other points 0.02083


SOA Components at Mt Zion

0123456789

8/10

8/11

8/12

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/18

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

[ug/

m^3

]

SOA1 SOA2 SOA3 SOA4 SOA5


Top PSO4 Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] BC 0.3074 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.1241 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.07057 IC 0.05738 NW of Gorge EGUs 0.02944 West of Gorge Nonroad 0.02064 NW of Gorge Other points 0.01234 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.01144 West of Gorge Other points 0.009788 East of Gorge EGUs 0.009254 Gorge Nonroad 0.009244

Episode average PSO4 contributions to WishramTotal = 0.73 ug/m3

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.35

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top PNO3 Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] Gorge Nonroad 0.02777 BC 0.02338 West of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01755 West of Gorge Nonroad 0.01301 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01111 Portland Onroad mobile 0.01085 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.01028 Portland Nonroad 0.008619 Gorge Other area 0.006254 West of Gorge Other area 0.00322 Portland Other area 0.002796 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.002745 NW of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.002664

Episode average PNO3 contributions to WishramTotal = 0.16 ug/m3

00.010.020.030.040.050.06

Gor

ge

Por

tland

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

Eas

t of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top PNH4 Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] East of Gorge Ammonia 0.02698 Gorge Ammonia 0.02543 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.01151 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.01004 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.007602 BC 0.007451 West of Gorge Ammonia 0.00641 Portland Ammonia 0.003634 IC 0.002313

Episode average PNH4 contributions to WishramTotal = 0.11 ug/m3

00.0050.01

0.0150.02

0.0250.03

0.0350.04

0.045

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top PEC Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] East of Gorge Wildfires 0.1754 Gorge Nonroad 0.1324 West of Gorge Nonroad 0.03034 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.02086 West of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.02025 BC 0.01767 Portland Nonroad 0.01559 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.01276 NW of Gorge Nonroad 0.009503

Episode average PEC contributions to WishramTotal = 0.48 ug/m3

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.140.160.180.2

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top POA Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] East of Gorge Wildfires 0.8446 West of Gorge Other area 0.05362 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.05071 Gorge Nonroad 0.0489 BC 0.0487 Portland Other area 0.0238 Gorge Other area 0.01903 West of Gorge Nonroad 0.01767

Episode average POA contributions to WishramTotal = 1.23 ug/m3

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Gor

ge

Port

land

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Fine Dust Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] Gorge Other area 0.09351 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.02285 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.02282 BC 0.00871 East of Gorge Onroad mobile 0.00834

Episode average Fine Dust contributions to WishramTotal = 0.17 ug/m3

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.14

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other fires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Other Fine PM Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] West of Gorge Other area 0.06132 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.05352 Gorge Other area 0.0514 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.05027 East of Gorge Other area 0.04854 Portland Other area 0.02896 BC 0.007897 NW of Gorge EGUs 0.007779 West of Gorge Other points 0.007187 NW of Gorge Other area 0.00716 IC 0.005944

Episode average Other Fine PM contributions to WishramTotal = 0.36 ug/m3

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.12

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Coarse Dust Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] Gorge Other area 0.3467 Gorge Onroad mobile 0.1312 Outside 4 km domain Outside 4 km domain 0.03706

Episode average Coarse Dust contributions to WishramTotal = 0.57 ug/m3

00.10.20.30.40.50.6

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


Top Other Coarse PM Contributors Region Emission Group [ug/m^3] BC 0.09943 East of Gorge Other area 0.09026 Gorge Other area 0.07833 East of Gorge Wildfires 0.05955 IC 0.01423 Portland Other area 0.01153 West of Gorge Other area 0.01014

Episode average Other Coarse PM contributions to WishramTotal = 0.39 ug/m3

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.140.160.18

Gor

ge

Portl

and

NW

of G

orge

Wes

t of G

orge

East

of G

orge

Out

side

4 k

mdo

mai

n

IC BC

ug/m

^3

BC

IC

Outside 4 km domain

Other points

Wildfires

Other f ires

Pulp mills

EGUs

Other area

Ammonia

Nonroad

Onroad mobile


SOA Components at Wishram

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

8/10

8/11

8/12

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/18

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

[ug/

m^3

]

SOA1 SOA2 SOA3 SOA4 SOA5


Next Steps

• Continue with 2018 Future Year scenario– August 2004 episode only

• Continue with 5 “what-if” scenarios• Determine 2004-2018 visibility trend

lines• Document in project report

crgaqs: camx psat results

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