OverviewOverview

BackgroundBackground Validated NeedsValidated Needs

– Mr. Eli Jacks, NOAA / NWSMr. Eli Jacks, NOAA / NWS

– Dr. Al Riebau, USDA / FSDr. Al Riebau, USDA / FS

– Lt Col David Andrus, OFCMLt Col David Andrus, OFCM

Framework to Meet the NeedsFramework to Meet the Needs Status of AssessmentStatus of Assessment

BackgroundBackground 2005 and 2005 and

2006 were 2006 were record years record years for acres for acres burnedburned

Acres burned Acres burned have trended have trended upwards upwards more than more than 100% since 100% since mid-80smid-80s

Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary

BackgroundBackground

Wildland fire suppression, Wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels preparedness, fuels management, and other management, and other activities receive activities receive approximately $2.7B in approximately $2.7B in federal funding annuallyfederal funding annually

$ in millions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US Dept of Agriculture 2,320 2,010 1,637 1,885 1,856 1,911

US Dept of Interior 875 784 831 756 770 802

Total 3,195 2,794 2,468 2,641 2,586 2,713

BackgroundBackground Western Governors’ Association Western Governors’ Association

Request, June 2005Request, June 2005– ““The Western Governors urge NOAA to: The Western Governors urge NOAA to:

Complete a National Needs Assessment Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAAReport, by NOAA’’s Office of the Federal s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers state and local fire managers needsneeds for for weather information in their wildfire and weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes prescribed fire decision making processes and a and a frameworkframework to meet those needs by to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.”the NWS and Predictive Services.”

BackgroundBackground ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005

– ““OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.”response.”

By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formedAssessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed

– DHSDHS FEMAFEMA U.S. Fire AdministrationU.S. Fire Administration

– DOCDOC NOAANOAA NISTNIST

– DODDOD– DOEDOE– DOIDOI

U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Park ServiceNational Park Service Bureau of Land MgmtBureau of Land Mgmt U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Geological Survey Bureau of Indian AffairsBureau of Indian Affairs

– DOTDOT FAAFAA FHWA FHWA

– EPAEPA– HHSHHS– NASANASA– USDAUSDA

U.S. Forest ServiceU.S. Forest Service– Subject Matter ExpertsSubject Matter Experts

State ForestersState Foresters UniversitiesUniversities

Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWSRepresentatives from:

Background – JAG/NWFWNABackground – JAG/NWFWNA

The JAG was charged with addressing the The JAG was charged with addressing the following functional areas:following functional areas:– Data collection, integrity, processing, and archivalData collection, integrity, processing, and archival– Fire weather research and developmentFire weather research and development– Forecast Products and ServicesForecast Products and Services– Modeling, prediction, and data assimilationModeling, prediction, and data assimilation– Information dissemination and technologiesInformation dissemination and technologies– Education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaborationEducation, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration– User response, decision support, and resulting user impactsUser response, decision support, and resulting user impacts– Funding and human resources (crosscutting)Funding and human resources (crosscutting)– Socioeconomic factorsSocioeconomic factors

Background - JAG/NWFWNABackground - JAG/NWFWNA

BackgroundBackgroundInput from Many ActivitiesInput from Many Activities

Spring/Summer 2006: Mini-workshops held to Spring/Summer 2006: Mini-workshops held to frame overall needs and issuesframe overall needs and issues

Fall 2006: San Diego Fire Congress Special Fall 2006: San Diego Fire Congress Special Session increased community feedback on the Session increased community feedback on the needs of fire weather (FW) usersneeds of fire weather (FW) users

Winter 2006: OFCM canvassed more than 1200 Winter 2006: OFCM canvassed more than 1200 federal FW community users; WGA requested federal FW community users; WGA requested input from state, tribal, and local FW usersinput from state, tribal, and local FW users

Spring 2007: Analyzed input from 745 federal, Spring 2007: Analyzed input from 745 federal, state, tribal, and local fire weather users to state, tribal, and local fire weather users to derive specific fire weather needsderive specific fire weather needs

43National = 32

14 9CT 5DE 2DC 0MA 5MD 5NJ 8RI 2

36

3090

937

16

9

4

19

71

6 6

13 9

7

5

22

16

21

51

742

5

24

8

9

12

11

53

10

10

16

14

32

23

6

126

1325

21

BackgroundBackgroundContributor Geographic DistributionContributor Geographic Distribution

BackgroundBackgroundAssessment ProcessAssessment Process

Users who frequently or occasionally perform Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following duties:the following duties:– PlannerPlanner 354354– Weather providerWeather provider 350350– FirefighterFirefighter 348348– Fuels managementFuels management 324324– Land managerLand manager 242242– ResearcherResearcher 172172– Air quality managerAir quality manager 163163– Emergency worker (non-fire)Emergency worker (non-fire) 158158

BackgroundBackgroundAssessment ProcessAssessment Process

Users who frequently or occasionally Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following functions:perform the following functions:– Fire season operationsFire season operations 564564

– Active fire operationsActive fire operations 528528

– Long-term planningLong-term planning 501501

– Pre-season operationsPre-season operations 498498

– Post fire operationsPost fire operations 453453

– Post fire evaluationPost fire evaluation 427427

BackgroundBackgroundAssessment ProcessAssessment Process

Users who frequently or Users who frequently or occasionally work at the occasionally work at the following levels:following levels:– FederalFederal 494494– LocalLocal 448448– StateState 429429– PrivatePrivate 217217– AcademicAcademic 153153– TribalTribal 149149– NGONGO 5858

BackgroundBackgroundAssessment ProcessAssessment Process

47 needs identified within 24 themes47 needs identified within 24 themes– 32 needs grouped under 9 themes32 needs grouped under 9 themes– 15 needs stand-alone with their own theme15 needs stand-alone with their own theme– All functional areas coveredAll functional areas covered

Needs information includes:Needs information includes:– Urgency: Urgent or Non-urgentUrgency: Urgent or Non-urgent– Timeframe over which the need can reasonably Timeframe over which the need can reasonably

be met: Short-term, Long-term, or Short/Long-be met: Short-term, Long-term, or Short/Long-termterm

– Factors that will contribute to meeting the Factors that will contribute to meeting the need: Coordination, Data, Management, need: Coordination, Data, Management, Processes, Resources, Science, and TechnologyProcesses, Resources, Science, and Technology

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Functional Areas (FA)Functional Areas (FA)– FA 1: Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and ArchivalFA 1: Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Archival

– FA 3: Forecast Products and ServicesFA 3: Forecast Products and Services

– FA 7: User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting FA 7: User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User ImpactsUser Impacts

Mr. Eli JacksNOAA National

Weather Service

Validated NeedsValidated Needs Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and

ArchivalArchival– Data management improvements to support a Data management improvements to support a

national observing systemnational observing system 4D data cube4D data cube Validated obs in real-timeValidated obs in real-time A sensor suite of fixed and deployable componentsA sensor suite of fixed and deployable components A prioritized list of data elementsA prioritized list of data elements

– Unification of weather station measurement Unification of weather station measurement standards for optimal national usestandards for optimal national use For example: NWS and Forest Service have different For example: NWS and Forest Service have different

standards for measuring atmospheric conditionsstandards for measuring atmospheric conditions

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Forecast Products and ServicesForecast Products and Services– Product improvements at each level of Product improvements at each level of

government for various wildland fire-government for various wildland fire-related duties (e.g., firefighter)related duties (e.g., firefighter) Tailored products and toolsTailored products and tools

Availability of product accuracy informationAvailability of product accuracy information

Detailed climate outlooksDetailed climate outlooks

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Forecast Products and ServicesForecast Products and Services– Improved training and reference Improved training and reference

materials to facilitate proper materials to facilitate proper interpretation and use of productsinterpretation and use of products Existing materials need to be made Existing materials need to be made

availableavailable

Existing materials need to be improved Existing materials need to be improved based on best practicesbased on best practices

Training and reference material must Training and reference material must accompany new productsaccompany new products

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Forecast Products and ServicesForecast Products and Services– New and improved products:New and improved products:

NWS Fire Weather Forecast improvementsNWS Fire Weather Forecast improvements

NWS Fire Weather Forecast verification dataNWS Fire Weather Forecast verification data

Fire weather warnings disseminated more widely Fire weather warnings disseminated more widely and with longer lead timesand with longer lead times

Improved smoke dispersion productsImproved smoke dispersion products

NFDRS forecasts for more locationsNFDRS forecasts for more locations

More fine-scale fuel moisture data and forecasts More fine-scale fuel moisture data and forecasts

Better representations of stability and upper-Better representations of stability and upper-level atmospheric forecastslevel atmospheric forecasts

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Forecast Products and ServicesForecast Products and Services– Standardized product requirementsStandardized product requirements

Standard representations of weather and Standard representations of weather and fuels informationfuels information

– For example, a synoptic surface chart includes For example, a synoptic surface chart includes isobars and surface plots in a standard format, isobars and surface plots in a standard format, easily understood by all meteorologistseasily understood by all meteorologists

Clear depictions of critical threshold / Clear depictions of critical threshold / breakpoint conditionsbreakpoint conditions

Product accuracy requirementsProduct accuracy requirements

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

User Response, Decision Support, and User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User ImpactsResulting User Impacts– Better feedback between development and Better feedback between development and

user communitiesuser communities Allows for more relevant decision-support toolsAllows for more relevant decision-support tools

– A decision-support tools repositoryA decision-support tools repository Contains reference and training documentation Contains reference and training documentation

and allows for user feedbackand allows for user feedback

– More smoke mgmt decision-support toolsMore smoke mgmt decision-support tools

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Functional AreasFunctional Areas– FA 2: Fire Weather FA 2: Fire Weather

Research and DevelopmentResearch and Development– FA 4: Modeling, Prediction, FA 4: Modeling, Prediction,

and Data Assimilationand Data Assimilation– FA 5: Information FA 5: Information

Dissemination and Dissemination and TechnologiesTechnologies

Dr. Al RiebauUSDA Forest Service

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Fire Weather R&DFire Weather R&D– Better understanding of fire potential, fire Better understanding of fire potential, fire

combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate change/variabilitychange/variability

– Simple access to information on R&D Simple access to information on R&D initiatives, efforts, and successesinitiatives, efforts, and successes

– Systematic integration of research into opsSystematic integration of research into ops

– Feedback mechanisms for users to Feedback mechanisms for users to meaningfully impact R&D effortsmeaningfully impact R&D efforts

Validated NeedsValidated Needs Modeling, Prediction, and Data AssimilationModeling, Prediction, and Data Assimilation

– Rapid transitioning of modeling advances into opsRapid transitioning of modeling advances into ops

– Operational models to better characterize:Operational models to better characterize:

Complex terrainComplex terrain

Coupled fire-atmosphere interactionsCoupled fire-atmosphere interactions

Climate and climate-change impactsClimate and climate-change impacts

Fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate Fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate changechange

– Wide dissemination of model accuracy and confidence Wide dissemination of model accuracy and confidence informationinformation

– Model output in easy-to-use graphical and text formats Model output in easy-to-use graphical and text formats (e.g., GIS format, PDA-supported formats)(e.g., GIS format, PDA-supported formats)

Validated NeedsValidated Needs Info Dissemination and TechnologiesInfo Dissemination and Technologies

– A coordinated, “one-stop” fire weather A coordinated, “one-stop” fire weather Internet presence Internet presence Facilitates access to pertinent weather data and Facilitates access to pertinent weather data and

products in region of interestproducts in region of interest

– Consistent dissemination of timely products Consistent dissemination of timely products and services to model usersand services to model users

– More products in low bandwidth formats for More products in low bandwidth formats for dissemination via telephones and PDAsdissemination via telephones and PDAs

– A centralized means for collaboration on A centralized means for collaboration on products and services products and services Examples: Chat rooms, Bulletin boardsExamples: Chat rooms, Bulletin boards

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Info Dissemination and TechnologiesInfo Dissemination and Technologies– Robust, real-time access to dataRobust, real-time access to data

Continuity of operations planning for:Continuity of operations planning for:– Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

(GOES) Data Collection System (DCS), which (GOES) Data Collection System (DCS), which serves as an integral mechanism for data flowserves as an integral mechanism for data flow

– Automated Sorting, Conversion, and Distribution Automated Sorting, Conversion, and Distribution System (ASCADS), which serves as a crucial node System (ASCADS), which serves as a crucial node for data flowfor data flow

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Functional AreasFunctional Areas– FA 6: Education, Training, Outreach, FA 6: Education, Training, Outreach,

Partnering, and CollaborationPartnering, and Collaboration

– FA 8: Funding and Human Resources FA 8: Funding and Human Resources (crosscutting)(crosscutting)

– FA 9: Socioeconomic FactorsFA 9: Socioeconomic Factors

Lt Col David AndrusOFCM

Validated NeedsValidated Needs

Education, Training, Outreach, Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering, and CollaborationPartnering, and Collaboration– Review training programs and establish Review training programs and establish

best practicesbest practices

– Validate and improve training programsValidate and improve training programs

– Comprehensive training and certification Comprehensive training and certification

– More state-of-the-art training options, to More state-of-the-art training options, to include distance-learninginclude distance-learning

Validated NeedsValidated Needs Funding and Human Resources Funding and Human Resources

(crosscutting)(crosscutting)– Leverage existing and pursue new resources, Leverage existing and pursue new resources,

as required, to:as required, to: Develop a real-time, 4D characterization of the Develop a real-time, 4D characterization of the

atmosphere and Earth’s surfaceatmosphere and Earth’s surface Improve smoke forecasts to better relate fire weather Improve smoke forecasts to better relate fire weather

with new EPA air quality requirementswith new EPA air quality requirements

Socioeconomic FactorsSocioeconomic Factors– Tap into state-of-the-art socioeconomic Tap into state-of-the-art socioeconomic

outreach tools to better inform and educate outreach tools to better inform and educate the public on the importance of understanding, the public on the importance of understanding, mitigating, and preparing for wildland firemitigating, and preparing for wildland fire

Framework to Meet the Framework to Meet the NeedsNeeds

A complete framework to meet identified needs will be A complete framework to meet identified needs will be developed over the next few monthsdeveloped over the next few months

Framing Concepts: Framing Concepts: – Leverage existing programs and initiatives of responsible Leverage existing programs and initiatives of responsible

Federal agenciesFederal agencies Examples: WIST, JUTB, EOS/NEXRAD, NOAA SABExamples: WIST, JUTB, EOS/NEXRAD, NOAA SAB

– Leverage existing and forthcoming technologiesLeverage existing and forthcoming technologies Examples: GEOSS, MPAR, NexGen, UASsExamples: GEOSS, MPAR, NexGen, UASs

– Recommend new initiatives and improvements to be Recommend new initiatives and improvements to be considered in Federal agencies’ ongoing program considered in Federal agencies’ ongoing program reviews and re-evaluations of products and servicesreviews and re-evaluations of products and services

– Define both near- and intermediate-term prioritiesDefine both near- and intermediate-term priorities– Identify partnering opportunities (horizontal/vertical)Identify partnering opportunities (horizontal/vertical)

Status of Status of AssessmentAssessment

Assessment has three phasesAssessment has three phases– Summary of user needs and issues Summary of user needs and issues

Drafted for release this summerDrafted for release this summer

Includes:Includes:– Validated needs Validated needs

– Framing concepts to meet needsFraming concepts to meet needs

Will be briefed to WGA in JuneWill be briefed to WGA in June

– Detailed report of user needs and issues Detailed report of user needs and issues Planned for release later this yearPlanned for release later this year

Status of AssessmentStatus of Assessment

Assessment has three phases (cont’d)Assessment has three phases (cont’d)– A framework to meet the needs A framework to meet the needs

Work to begin this summerWork to begin this summer

JAG will work with responsible agencies and JAG will work with responsible agencies and interagency groups to:interagency groups to:

– Assess current capabilities to meet the needsAssess current capabilities to meet the needs

– Assess any gaps in capability to meet the needsAssess any gaps in capability to meet the needs

– Recommend program initiatives to fill capability gapsRecommend program initiatives to fill capability gaps

– Develop a detailed, implementation plan with Develop a detailed, implementation plan with agreed-upon partner roles in meeting needsagreed-upon partner roles in meeting needs

Status of AssessmentStatus of Assessment

The JAG requests ICMSSR support to:The JAG requests ICMSSR support to:– Complete a needs summary reportComplete a needs summary report

– Complete a detailed needs reportComplete a detailed needs report

– Develop a framework for NWS and Develop a framework for NWS and Predictive Services to meet identified needsPredictive Services to meet identified needs

Successful completion will satisfy the Successful completion will satisfy the WGA request and greatly benefit the WGA request and greatly benefit the wildland fire communitywildland fire community

Questions?Questions?

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