office of the federal coordinator for meteorology ofcm national wildland fire weather needs...

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM

National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment:

An Update

Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FSMary M. Cairns, OFCM


Overview

• Background

• JAG/NWFWNA Membership

• Goals

• Functional Areas Covered in Assessment

• Key Activities and Deliverables

• Assessment Process

• Preliminary Findings

• Next Steps


• Problem/need– An abundance of accumulated biomass in forests and

rangelands, persistent drought conditions, and encroaching urbanization are contributing to larger, more costly wildland fires

– To effectively manage and suppress wildland fires, fire managers need timely, accurate, and detailed fire weather and climate information

Background


- In 2003, wildland fires in Southern California claimed 22 lives, destroyed 3,600 homes, burned 740,000 acres of land, and caused over $2 billion in property damage

– By June 1, 2006 in Texas, wildland fires have claimed 11 lives, destroyed 440 homes, and burned over 5 million acres

Background


Background

• Western Governors’ Association Policy Resolution 05-04: National Wildland Fire Weather Program, June 2005– OFCM complete “a National Needs Assessment … for weather

information in the wildland fire and prescribed fire decision-making processes…and a framework to meet those needs…”

• ICMSSR, November 18, 2005– Action Item 2005-1.1: ICMSSR concurred that OFCM should

move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) “… to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information…”

• JAG/NWFWNA Established December 2005


Background

• Need for public service improvements• Ecosystem impacts• Health affects -- degradation of air/water quality• Climate influence • National/Homeland security• Transportation impacts (surface and aviation)

Urgency


JAG/NWFWNA Membership

– DHS• FEMA• U.S. Fire Administration

– DOC• NOAA• NIST

– DOD– DOE– DOI

• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service• National Park Service• Bureau of Land Mgmt• U.S. Geological Survey• Bureau of Indian Affairs

– DOT• FAA• FHWA

– EPA– HHS– NASA– USDA

• U.S. Forest Service– Subject Matter Experts

• State Foresters• Universities

Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS


Goals

• Conduct a comprehensive review and assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management activities

• Assess the capabilities of the provider agencies to ensure that needed weather and climate information is available to fire managers and other users

• Ultimately, raise the critical nature of fire weather to a new level of community awareness


Functional Areas Covered in Assessment

• Data Collection, Integrity, Processing and Archival

• Modeling, Prediction and Data Assimilation

• Forecast Products and Services

• Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering and Collaboration

• Information Dissemination and Technologies

• User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts

• Fire Weather Research and Development

• Funding and Human Resource Considerations

• Socioeconomic Impacts


Key Activities and Deliverables

– ICMSSR briefing completed (11/18/2005)

– JAG established (12/05)

– Reviewed federal agency’s wildland fire programs

– Identified stakeholders

– Develop assessment tool (in draft)

– Gather assessment information (including early results)

– Identify gaps to meet needs

– Complete analysis and develop recommendations for report

– Generate draft assessment report (Q1, FY2007)

– Plan & conduct workshop for stakeholders’ review (Q1, FY2007)

– Complete NWFWNA report (Q3, FY2007)


Assessment Process

• Parallel Effort– “Early results”

• Federal agencies• Educators/universities• Research community• Users/stakeholders

– Incident commanders– Fire mangers– Dispatchers– Fire behavior/fire analysts– Smoke jumpers– Emergency management– Industry/private meteorologists

– Comprehensive survey questionnaire


Preliminary Findings• Federal Agencies Reactions

– Need for dense, quality observational data• Surface • Greater exploitation of satellite data• Expand use of UASs• Smart sensor technology – vehicle integrated sensors

– Products and services are received in timely manner, however, some need improvement

• Products need to convey forecast uncertainty (e.g., use of probabilistic guidance)– Better use of climate forecasts in decision making– Complete a comprehensive interagency requirements document– Facilitate the transition of research to operations– Increased partnering/collaboration– Develop strategic plan


Preliminary Findings (cont.)

• Education/Outreach– Need for more easily accessed, affordable, climate and

weather information and products– Improved technology to support delivery of information– Improve fire weather terminology and educate the public

• “warning” vs “watch”– Improve information dissemination of fire danger to

general public year round– Improve training on fire weather to the firefighter level



• Atmospheric/Meteorological Research Concerns– Need for high-quality data for research purposes

• Historical• Fire occurrence• Air quality

– Need for fire weather science focus in agencies• Develop an interagency list of fire weather research priorities

– Improved climate products and services• Establish link with Climate Change Science Program• Establish link with the National Integrated Drought Information System

– Increase computer modeling capabilities/resources• Increased resolution of models• Improved modeling in complex terrain

– Including winds, thunderstorms, precipitation

• Improved atmospheric transport and diffusion (smoke), air quality, and fire behavior modeling



• User/Stakeholder Initial Response– Increased data collection (more surface observations)– Large number of products available, however, many are

too general– Products need to be tailored to individual users– Expand incident meteorologist program

• Spin-up time; locally trained• Increase cadre by including other agencies

– Increased staffing needs– Improve decision-support tools– Improve coordinated decision support



• Social Science Aspects– Behavioral response– Economic impacts/cost avoidance– Health impacts– Social scientist role in education– Population dynamics (higher expectations from new,

urban background residents)


Next Steps

• Interim assessment report Fall 2006 (early results)

• Comprehensive survey (to reach wider audience)

• Special Session, 3rd International Fire and Ecology Congress, November 14, 2006, San Diego, CA

• Final Product Spring 2007 (WGA Conference)


JAG/NWFWNA Web Site

http://www.ofcm.gov/jag-nwfwna/index.htm


Questions?

office of the federal coordinator for meteorology ofcm national wildland fire weather needs...

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