overview of the eucalc model - european-calculator.eu
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Overview of the EUCalc model
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730459.
Garret KellyLuís CostaMichel CornetAna Rankovic
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
▪ Model live demo and introduction
▪ Model uses
▪ Illustrative messages
2 19/03/2019
Agenda
2 19/03/2019 Business Europe2 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
The Consortium
Business Europe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Germany
Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine UK
Climact SA Belgium
Buildings Performance Institute Europe ASBL Belgium
Austrian Society for Environment and Technology Austria
University of Copenhagen Denmark
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology of Lausanne Switzerland
University of East Anglia UK
PANNON Pro Innovations Ltd Hungary
Climate Media Factory Gmbh Germany
T6 Ecosystems srl Italy
SEE Change Net Bosnia & Herzegovina
Delft University of Technology The Netherlands
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Source: Climact, E3G, (1) AGORA – Energiewende
The EUCalc mission isimproving the link between modelers and decision makers
Modelling toolsand teams
Policyand decision
makers
• Open and transparent model(does not mean easy to understand)
• Accessible approach enabling users to simulate and interpret scenarios for Europe and MS+CH
• Enhance the trust in energy modelling through a strong co-creation with academia, public and business sectors
• Allow for trade-off analysis: Make it clear what consequences each option would have
• Support the European 2050 Road Map towards low carbon economies
• H2020 research and inovation action (3 years)
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Stakeholder mapping
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Literaturereview
Conferences and events
Data collection and analysis
Partners networks
Advisory board
• >1000 experts informed
• 150 experts participated in workshops
• 1/3 academia, ¼ private sector, ¼ CSOs and professional associations, 1/5 Public institutions
• 2/3 M and 1/3 F
•Schools of thought
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Source : Climact
Each model results from trade-off choicesE.g., Depth of insights vs accessibility (usage, assumptions, etc…)
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Levels of ambitionAn abstraction of the complex
LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4
Projections of historical
trends
More ambitious level 1 but
not reaching the full potential
of available solutions.
Very ambitious but realistic
given the current technology
evolutions and the best
practices observed in some
geographical areas.
Transformational and
requires some additional
breakthrough, important costs
reduction for some
technologies, very fast
deployment of infrastructures
and strong societal change.
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Levels of ambitionAn abstraction of the complex
LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4
• The demand of transport per
persons follows the same
temporal pattern as
observed between the years
of 1990 and 2014.
• No TRL <9
• An intermediate level in
which the observed trends in
level 1 are constrained.
• No TRL <9
• Travel to work is reduced by
25% for 25% of the
population
• Travel to access services is
reduced by 25% for 80% of
the population.
• No TRL <7
• Travel to work is reducted
by 25% for 50% of the
population
• Travel to access services is
reduced by 50% for 90% of
the population.
• No TRL <5
work
study
services
leisure & social
0.5
1
1.5
0
Ave
rage
tra
vel t
ime
(h/d
ay)
<25 years 45-65 >65 years
Travel time for leisure vs income
Ave
rage
tra
vel t
ime
(h/d
ay)
Year 2000
GDP/cap)
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Sector and thematic coverage
• Lifestyles• Transport • Buildings• Industry• Energy• Land/Agriculture/Forestry• Employment/Health• Climate/Biodiversity• Transbounbary
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
tool.european-calculator.eu demo
Impact of lever On graphs
Key behaviours/Travel
Transport/Passenger energy demand per mode
Technology & fuels/Manufacturing• Material
efficiency• CCS
Industry/Steel/• Strong reduction• Small increase in
energy consumption
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.11 19/03/201911 19/03/201911 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.12 19/03/201912 19/03/201912 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.13 19/03/201913 19/03/201913 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.14 19/03/201914 19/03/201914 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.15 19/03/201915 19/03/201915 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.16 19/03/201916 19/03/201916 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.17 19/03/201917 19/03/201917 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.18 19/03/201918 19/03/201918 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
While the EU Commission currently focuses on PRIMES and GEM-E3, it is busy with new modeling efforts that will shape the future decision making
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
▪ Model live demo and introduction
▪ Model uses
▪ Illustrative messages
20 19/03/2019
Agenda
20 19/03/2019 Business Europe20 19/03/2019
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Earlier generation of 2050 calculators had a large impact
Global Calc Europe (previous) India China UK Belgium
Organisations carrying the tool
• IEA, UK BEIS • ECF • Government (Planning commission)
• China Energy Research Institute
• UK Government (BEIS)
• 1 Federal and 4 regional administrations
Insights • Relative impact of food
• Link activities to industry
• Low carbon growth possibilities
• Net Zero • Energy independence possibilities
• Energy dependence is increasing in all scenarios
• Tidal energy is polluting the debate
• >20 000 pathways submitted
• Feasibility of -80% scenarios
• > 200 schools visited
Use by decision makers
• Use in EU LTS• NECPs
• Develop BAU INDC scenario
• Develop their draft National Energy Policy
• / • Support Climate Change Act 2010
• Support Carbon Plan 2011
• Inspire heat sector decarbonisation strategy & electricity market reform programme
• Carbon budget• -80% pathway• Support to 2020
NECP
>20 countries have developed national calculators, most often with a web front-end for experts or for schools
Not Exhaustive
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
EUCalc is planning to support the following uses
Decision maker support
• Supporting to objectify the low carbon transition debate(implications of possible pathways)
• Supporting decision makerso MS and Europe (MEP, DGs of EC,
Council) to set and update the NECPs and LTS
o Business to set consistent strategies• Supporting EC to communicate on the
underlying assumptions of its scenarios
Dissemination
• Simplified interface for education and general public communication
• MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) for education
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
▪ Model live demo and introduction
▪ Model uses
▪ Illustrative messages
23 19/03/2019
Agenda
Business Europe
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
This study is focused on the development of low carbon scenarios,and assesses their techno-economical implications
▪ The development of scenarios based on realistic and transparent assumptions
▪ An open and dynamic model, with an online version to increase reach and use
▪ The engagement of a wide group of experts on sector findings
▪ Emissions, Energy, resources, economic impacts, trade flows
▪ The identification of the key decision points, and of timing implications
▪ A good view on the cost implications. Direct costs (capex/opex/fuels) are covered
▪ Employment, health, biodiversity and water impact
▪ Scenarios are not projections, and the launch of the model will not include the choice of an ideal scenario
▪ Societal cost could not be covered
▪ Allocation of taxes and subsidies to certain actors
What itcovers
What it does NOT do
What it partially covers
▪ Macro-economic analysis and climate change co-benefits are partially covered
▪ Equilibrium models are being assessed for partial integration
▪ Optimisation engine
▪ This is the best pathway for Europe
▪ For our children, low carbon is 3% cheaper
▪ X jobs can be created in this scenario
▪ EU’s impact on Climate change brings x additional costs to society
▪ EU’s impact on energy costs
▪ If you change this technical or behavioral aspect, these are the consequences
▪ This is the maneuver space per aspect, and its implementation ambition
▪ This is the impact of delaying action
▪ In this scenario, Belgium imports beef, Europe imports steel and exports cars
▪ Eating more meat has this impact on land use
▪ Adding wind mills require to manufacture steel
Illustrative questions
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
It is possible to reach net-zero GHG emissions for EU-28 by 2050
1. Several contrasted pathways lead to net zero, offering some policy alternatives leveraging both reduced emissions and carbon sinks
2. High ambition is required in all sectors whatever the chosen pathway– There are some unavoidable actions irrespective of the pathway– These transformations are ambitious but feasible– They require activating the GHG reduction potential of social, technical (and political?) innovation
3. Net-zero pathways don’t cost more than the reference scenario, and allow shifting financial flows back towards the EUThey also bring major co-benefits (although quantifying them is not part of the scope of this study)
4. Major action is needed before 2030 given the EU carbon budget to stick to WB2DS, – The more we wait, the more difficult (and costly?) it is to stick to WB2DS. It requires an early start to avoid requiring unachievable later efforts, i.e.
excessive pace of reduction or having to go too negative– The current EU ambition for 2030 is not compatible with net zero (or WB2DS) or relies on drastic increase of post-2030 efforts. Reaching more
ambitious 2030 targets requires ramping up collective action now to reach steady state implementation before 2030– Some drivers have intrinsically very long lead times: forests, power infrastructures, deep renovation…
5. This doesn’t require displacing GHG emissions out of the EU (industry, food, bioenergy)– The EU can decarbonize without exporting industrial activity and GHG emissions– Europe can continue being self-sufficient on food production while decreasing the consumption of meat from ruminants to free up areas that can be
used for afforestation or bioenergy
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Illustrative messages
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
▪ Backup
▪ Transparency demonstration
▪ Model scope and caracteristics
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Agenda
Business Europe
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.28 19/03/2019
SOURCE: EUCalc yEd diagram
General model overview
Business Europe
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.29 19/03/2019
KNIME: General model overview
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.30 19/03/2019
KNIME: Zoom 1: TransportInside the calculation tree, modules typically implement a similar logic for historical and future time series, then aggregate the results
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.31 19/03/2019
KNIME: Zoom 2: Historical TransportEach module is free (for now :) to structure their model, in the example of transport, by mode first
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.32 19/03/2019
KNIME: Zoom 3: motorbike section of historical-transportCalculation trees can be built using Knime nodes or with Python code, depending on personal preference
32 19/03/2019 Business Europe
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
▪ Backup
▪ Transparency demonstration
▪ Model scope and caracteristics
34 19/03/2019
Agenda
Business Europe
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.36 19/03/2019
SOURCE: Kick-off presentation
Desired model ambitionThe consortium has defined desired model characteristics
Answers questions in real time
• The Pathway Explorer provides end-users with a real time experience
Covers a wide array of topic
• Cfr figure to the right
Is granular enough to provide specific answers
• Geographic granularity : Europe as a whole, each member state separately,imports and exports
• Dimensions : cfr figure to the right
Goes deep enough to provide added value
• Addresses key questions regarding the energy transition.• Aims to provide as much analysis depth as possible within the given constrains.• Provides enough analysis depth to be considered credible by stakeholders.
Is collaboratively build • Built in parallel by the 10 organisations of the consortium• Does not require the organisations to have high coding skills
Is transparent enough to enhance stakeholder buy in
Transparency is declined through:• The stakeholder participative approach to develop the calculation rationale• The rationale of the calculation applied on the input data;• The input data used in the model;• The ease of use by the end-user of the tools used;• (The open-source access of the tools)
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• Activities & indicators,• Products & materials,• Resources (incl. land use water),• Energy,• GHG emissions,• Socio- economics,• Transboundary effects,• Pollution & health,• Energy poverty,• Biodiversity, • Food & materials self-sufficiency, • Equity measure• (~Policies)
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation
program under grant agreement No. 730459.
Value added
Transport
Model core
Energy requirements by sector (WP2 and 3)
Climate & Technological Transitions (WP1)
BuildingsResidential Commercial
Heating technologies
Appliance efficiencies
Passenger Commercial
Transport Technologies
ManufacturingProduct Design
Materials production
Materials (WP3)Minerals (location based)
Fossil fuel reserves
Demand activity input
Energy supply (WP5)
Diet
Travel demand, mode & occupancy
Building sizes, inside temperature
Appliance use, product demand
Storage requirements(specific time granularity)
Technologies
Electricity production
Heat production
Transport & Distribution
Storage
Impact on resources
Demography
Impact of Climate(Yields, Outside temperatures)
Dynamics with rest of world
Land (WP4)
Jobs Social impact
Social & Economic impact (WP6)
Financial flows based on all the above
Trans-boundary effects,Trade, & Flows
(WP7)
Within MS
Outside EU
Food
Energy
GHG
Materials & resources
Economic impact
Food
Energy
GHG
Materials & resources
Economic impact
Economy evolution
Carbon price
Elasticity of lifestyle to GDP
Foodproduction
(WP4)
Livestock
Crops
Water (WP4)Land allocation
Biodiversity impact
Forestry
Biomass
Lifestyle EU & rest of wordEconomy
Scarcity(time and basin based)
Direct, Indirect, Induced Direct, Indirect, Induced Direct, Indirect, Induced
Legend
Global calc module
Additional modules
Energy & Resources
EUCalc scope
HAND OUT
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