Report No. 996a-PAK

Pakistan: Appraisal of theLahore Water Supply, Sewerage andDrainage Project-Phase 11April 13, 1976

South Asia Projects Department FILE p yWater Supply Division F COPY

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may nototherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGEAND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS(As of April 1, 1976)

Currency Unit = Pakistan Rupee (PR)PRs 1.00 - 100 PaisaPRs 1.00 = US$0.10PRs 1 million 3 US$101,000US$1.00 PRs 9.9US$ 1 million = PRs 9,900,000

MEASURES AND EQUIVALENTS

DMg a Million Imperial gallons (1 IMg - 4,546 cubicmeters)

IMgd - Million Imperial gallons per day(1 IMgd = 52.62 liters per second)

gcd = Imperial gallons per capita per day(1 gcd - 4.546 liters per capita per day)

US gal. c US gallon (1 US gallon - 0.8327 Imperialgallon)

in . inch (1 in = 2.54 cms)ft foot (1 ft = 30.5 cms)cfs = cubic feet per second (1 cfs = 28.32 liters

per second)lb = pound (1 lb - 0.4536 kilograms)psi 5 pounds per square inch (1 psi -0.0703 kg

per square centimeter)ppm parts per million (1 ppm -1 milligram per liter)

FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY

PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADB = Asian Development BankARV = Annual Rental ValueCDM = Camp Dresser & McKee, Ltd.Fergusons A.F. Ferguson & Co.GOP = Government of PakistanLDA = Lahore Development AuthorityLITWW = Lahore Improvement Trust Water WingLMC = Lahore Municipal CorporationODM = U.K. Overseas Development MinistryPETD = Provincial Excise and Taxation Department (Punjab)PHED = Public Health Engineering Department (Punjab)PP = Province of the PunjabPPHU = Physical Planning and Housing Unit (Federal Ministry

of Finance)SIDA = Swedish International Development AuthorityUNDP = United Nations Development ProgramWAPDA = Water and Power Development Authority (Pakistan)WASA = Water and Sanitation Agency (Successor to LITWW)

WASA's FISCAL YEAR

July 1 to June 30

South Asia Projects DepartmentWater Supply Division

April 13, 1976

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THELAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................ ,.i-iii

I. INTRODUCTION ........................................... 1

II. THE SECTOR ............................................. 1

A. General Situation ................................ 2B. Sector Development in Pakistan .... ............... 2C. Water Supply and Sewerage in the Punjab Province . 3D. Water Supply and Sewerage in Lahore .... .......... 4E. Drainage ......................................... 4

III. THE PROJECT ........................................... 5

A. Background and Objectives ........................ 5B. Description ...................................... 5C. Cost Estimates ................................... 7D. Contingencies .................................... 8E. Amount of IDA Credit ............................. 9F. Procurement ...................................... 9G. Disbursement ..................................... 9H. Underspending of Funds .10I. Design, Construction and Supervision of

Construction .10J. Construction Schedule .10K. Environmental Impact .10

IV. JUSTIFICATION .11

A. General .11B. Population and Demand Projections .11C. Least Cost Solution .12D. Economic Evaluation .12E. Urban Development and Traffic Study .13

V. THE BORROWER AND BENEFICIARY .14

A. The Borrower .14B. The Beneficiary .14C. Organization and Management .14D. Management Systems .15

This report was prepared by A. Saravanapavan (Sanitary Engineer) and L.V.Smith (Financial Analyst).

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Page No.

E. Staffing ................. 15F. Training ................. 15G. Audit ................. 16H. Operations ................. 16I. Project Risks ................. 17J. Lahore Urban Development and Traffic Studies ..... 17

VI. FINANCE . ............................................... 18

A. Past Performance and Present Position .... ........ 18B. Financing Plan ........ ........................... 19C. Present Charging System ....... .................... 20D. Application of Charging System ..... .............. 21E. Tariff Study ........ ............................. 21F. Future Finance ........ ........................... 22G. Performance Monitoring ........................... 24H. Insurance ............. 24

VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ..... ............ 24

ANNEXES

1. Description of the Project - Water Supply and Project Implementation2. Description of the Project - Sewerage and Drainage3. Project Cost Estimates4. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements5. Construction Schedule6. Existing Water Supply Facilities, Water Sources and Hydrology7. Existing Facilities - Sewerage and Drainage8. Population and Water Demand Projections9. Lahore Urban Development and Traffic Study10. Organization Chart of the Water and Sanitation

Agency11. Income Statements12. Funds Flow Statements13. Balance Sheets14. Assumptions for Financial Projections15. Schedule of Current Charges16. Schedule of Charges Proposed from January 1, 1977

MAPS

IBRD 12095 - LAHORE WATER SUPPLY: Areas Served with Water SupplyIBRD 11913 - LAHORE WATER SUPPLY: Existing and Proposed Water Supply

SystemIBRD 11914 - LAHORE SEWERAGE Existing and Proposed Sewerage

AND DRAINAGE: and Drainage Systems

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THELAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

i. This report covers the appraisal of a project that forms a threeyear time slice, Phase II, of a long-range program for improving water sup-ply, sewerage and drainage in Lahore, the administrative and commercial cen-ter of the Province of the Punjab, Pakistan. A start was made in 1967 on aPhase I project establishing a utility organization, rehabilitating existingwater supply, sewerage and drainage facilities, developing a master plan,and executing a small construction component. The cost of studies for theurban development of Lahore has been added to the present project.

ii. IDA and the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA)helped finance the Phase I project with equal amounts, totalling US$3.5million equivalent. Despite substantial initial difficulties the broadtechnical objectives of the project were achieved, and the first credit(106-PAK) was fully disbursed and closed in July 1972. There was a costoverrun of 120%, more than half of which resulted from a project revisionand a time overrun of 2-1/2 years mainly because of institutional problems.An evaluation of the Phase I project made in 1974 has confirmed the need forthe improvements envisaged in the Phase II project. 1/

iii. The Phase II project is a continuation of the work started inPhase I, and is based upon studies financed by the United Nations Develop-ment Program (UNDP), with IBRD as executing agency, and carried out byCamp Dresser & McKee, Ltd. (CDM), consulting engineers USA, assisted byMessrs. A.F. Ferguson & Co (Fergusons), a local accounting firm. The con-sulting engineers revised the master plan developed under the Phase Iproject, identified a 10 year investment plan, made hydrological studies,and assisted the Lahore Improvement Trust Water Wing (LITWW) in making atariff study and designing improvements to the accounting and billing andcollection systems.

iv. The proposed project, to be executed from FY1977 through FY1980 isan optimal package of works that will strengthen the existing water supplysystem which now serves a population of about 1.4 million and expand itscapacity to serve nearly two million people in FY1980. The area served bythe sewerage system will be increased by 20% benefitting an additional popu-lation of 250,000 and local flooding would be alleviated by the proposeddrainage works. The estimated cost of the project is US$46.3 millionequivalent with a foreign exchange component of US$15.6 million. An IDAcredit of US$25.0 million equivalent is proposed to cover about 60% ofthe project's costs excluding duties, i.e. the foreign exchange cost (ex-cluding consulting costs to be financed by UNDP) plus about 38% of the

1/ Performance Audit Report No. 400 dated April 12, 1974.

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local costs. The remaining US$21.3 million would be financed, US$20.7 mil-lion by the Provincial Government: and US$0.6 million by UNDP. These projectcosts do not include the urban development studies for Lahore for which anadditional sum of US$1.6 million is provided in the proposed credit.

V. The credit would be made to the Islamic Republic of Pakistanwhich would on-lend the funds to the Province of the Punjab on thesame terms and conditions. The l'rovince would, in turn, on-lend thefunds to the Lahore Development Authority (LDA) and the Water and SanitationAgency (WASA) at 8 3/4% interest for a term of 25 years, with 5 years graceincluding a waiver of interest. WASA is a semi-autonomous organizationcreated by the Province for providing water supply, sewerage and drainageservices in Lahore under the umbrella of LDA - a development oriented organi-zation created in April 1975. LDA has taken over the functions of the LahoreImprovement Trust (LIT) with added powers for planning, controlling and coor-dinating the development of Greater Lahore. WASA has taken over the functionsand staff of LITWW, which satisfactorily implemented the construction compo-nents of the Phase I project, but did not develop into an effective utility.WASA will be better organized, having more powers than did LITWW and a greateropportunity for becoming an efficient organization. WASA will be responsiblefor carrying out the water supply, sewerage and drainage project and LDAwill be responsible for carrying out the urban development studies.

vi. The water supply component of the proposed project includes theconstruction of 47 tubewells, 193 miles of transmission and distributionpipeline extensions and replacements, improvements and repairs to existingsystems, service connections and meters. The sewerage and drainage componentof the proposed project includes about 300 miles of sewers, 21 miles of drain-age channels, four new sewage pumping stations, extensions to an existingpumping station, and one 75 acre waste stabilization pond. WASA staff willbe trained in management, finance., engineering operations and maintenanceunder technical assistance to be provided by the UK Overseas DevelopmentMinistry (ODM) and UNDP. Adequate facilities and equipment are included inthe project for this purpose. Special equipment for continuing vital ground-water studies, reducing leakage and for making environmental studies is alsoprovided.

vii. As in the Phase I project WASA, with only minimum assistance fromforeign consultants, will be respcnsible for project implementation. Majorcontracts will be awarded on the basis of international competitive biddingin accordance with Bank Group "Prccurement Guidelines". It is proposed thata margin of preference is given to domestic manufacturers of 15% or customsduty, whichever is lower. Assistance will be given to civil works contractorsif needed for the importation of drilling and pipelaying equipment, cementand steel.

viii. Of the estimated total project cost of PRs 458 million (US$46.3 mil-lion equivalent) PRs 227 million (US23.0 million equivalent) is for watersupply, PRs 217 million (US$21.9 million equivalent) is for sewerage, andPRs 14 million (US$1.4 million equivalent) is for surface drainage.

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ix. WASA will implement and maintain rates and charges for watersupply and sewerage services at levels to provide revenues sufficient toproduce an annual rate of return on reasonably valued averaged net fixedassets in service of 6% from FY1983.

x. The urban development and traffic study comprises consultingservices to assist LDA in preparing a pilot project in slum upgrading, apilot project in sites and services development for low-income groups anda project for traffic improvements in central Lahore. The study will alsoassist LDA in starting a process of urban development planning on a regionalscale and in training of requisite staff.

xi. The project including the urban studies is suitable for a creditof US$26.6 million equivalent - US$25.0 million for water supply, sewerageand drainage and USS1.6 million for urban development studies.

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THELAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Phase II water supply, sewerage and drainage project is part

of a long range program to rehabilitate and expand these facilities in

Lahore, the capital city of the Punjab Province (PP) of Pakistan and second

only to Karachi as the largest city in the country. An IDA Credit of

US$25.0 million is proposed to finance about 54% of the cost of the project

including duties or about 60% excluding duties, the balance being loaned by

PP. An additional sum of US$1.6 million is included for urban studies making

a total IDA credit of US$26.6 million.

1.02 The Phase I project covering the period 1967-72 consisted of estab-

lishing a utility organization, developing a master plan, rehabilitationworks and a small construction component. IDA Credit 106-PAK for US$1.75

million and a Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) credit of

equal amount helped to finance the Phase I project.

1.03 The Government did not agree to the setting up of an autonomous

water utility for the Phase I project, but is now moving closer to this con-

cept with the setting up of a Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA) as a semi-

autonomous agency under the Lahore Development Authority (LDA). Continued

financial participation will enable IDA to maintain its role in the long

process of institution building.

1.04 The project is based upon a report prepared by a US firm of con-

sultants Camp Dresser & McKee, Ltd (CDM) assisted by A.F. Ferguson & Co

(Fergusons) of Pakistan. The report included the updating of the 1969

Master Plan and the identification of a ten year investment plan up to 1986,

a hydrological study, a tariff study and the redesign of accounting, billing

and collection systems. The Phase II project covers the first 3 years of

the investment plan. Also during 1974, the need for preinvestment work in

other sectors of the Lahore metropolitan area was identified by urban project

missions and preparatory work on studies was initiated, resulting in agreementin November 1975 on the scope and budget for an urban development and traffic

study in Lahore.

1.05 This report is based upon the consultants' report and on informa-

tion obtained by supervision missions to review progress on the first proj-

ect and by the April and September 1975 appraisal missions composed of

Messrs. A. Saravanapavan, sanitary engineer and L.V. Smith, financial analyst.

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II. THE SECTOR

A. General Situation

2.01 Being a semi-arid country with a low average annual rainfall ofless than ten inches in most of the country, Pakistan is fortunate in havingthe rich Indus River Valley to sustain it. Only about one-quarter of thecountry's total land area of 310,000 square miles is arable and most of thisis in this valley. The valley supports the populations of the Punjab andSind, the two largest of the four provinces of Pakistan. The Indus Riverand the extensive natural underground reservoirs of good quality water inthe valley are being developed for irrigation, hydropower and domestic use.

2.02 Over the past 12 years, Pakistan has had one of the highest ratesof population growth in the world, 3.1% per annum, and in 1972 had a popula-tion of 65 million people. 1/ Ihe war in 1971, and severe floods and droughtsin recent years have badly affected the economy. The Government of Pakistan(GOP) has estimated that GDP growth in FY1975 will be limited to 3.5% orlower; GDP has grown at only a 3.3% annual rate between FY1970 and FY1975,or by very little more than the estimated population growth of 3.1% annually.Per capita GDP in Pakistan in 1974 was low at US$112, but higher than thatof most of her neighbors.

2.03 The problems of the rapid population growth and the consequentstrain on public services are very evident. Of the estimated 17 millionPakistanis living in urban areas in 1972, about 50% had access to pipedwater supply. This was often of poor quality or the supply was inter-mittent. The rest used untreated river or canal water. About 5% of the48 million people living in rural areas had piped water supplies and therest used untreated water from ponds, rivers and canals. Water-bornesewerage systems exist only in some parts of the larger cities and serveabout 15% of the urban population. In most other urban areas human andsolid wastes are collected by sweepers. Sanitation in the rural areas isrudimentary. Only parts of some cities have surface drainage systems andduring the monsoon, floods are commonplace. The level of public services inmost cities is very low. For example, in Karachi, water is supplied for onlya maximum period of six hours daily. The three major reasons for this un-satisfactory position in the sector are (1) the ineffectiveness of institu-tions responsible for operations and maintenance and revenue collection, (2)the improper pricing of the services and (3) the shortage of trained manpowerfor the institutions.

B. Sector Development in Pakisitan

2.04 Development of water supply, sewerage and drainage is a provin-cial responsibility. In the bigger provinces - Punjab and Sind - there areseparate Public Health Engineering Departments (PHED), under the Departmentof Local Government, largely responsible for these functions. But in the

1/ 1972 Census

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smaller provinces - North West Frontier and Baluchistan - the Public Worksand Irrigation Departments respectively have this responsibility. Importantexceptions are the cities of Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad which have specialdevelopment authorities responsible, inter alia, for water supply, sewerageand drainage. GOP, through the Physical Planning and Housing Unit (PPHU)within the Planning Division carries out a limited coordination of provincialactivity in the sector, mainly through the five year National DevelopmentPlans (NDP).

2.05 GOP's program for water supply, sewerage and drainage is designedto reduce the gap between population growth and population served as rapidlyas possible. The needs of the rural population have been recognized and thespecific targets for increases in population served set for the 1976-81 NDPinclude urban water 4.6 million, rural water 8.1 million, urban sewerage10.9 million and rural sewerage 5.7 million.

2.06 The proposed GOP allocation of funds for water supply and seweragein the 1976-81 NDP is PRs 1,989 million made up of urban PRs 1,412 millionand rural PRs 577 million.

2.07 GOP has also laid down certain guidelines for sector developmentduring the next NDP which envisage the creation of separate water and sewerageauthorities in major cities for the construction, operation, maintenance andmanagement of the systems. GOP also supports the creation of development au-thorities for planning, acquisition and development of land for all users.In Lahore, such a development authority, the LDA, was created in April 1975by PP with wider powers, covering not only urban planning and developmentbut also the overall control of water supply, sewerage and drainage services(see para 2.11).

2.08 WHO has recently carried out a sector study in Pakistan under theWHO/IBRD Cooperative Program and its report is under preparation.

C. Water Supply and Sewerage in the Punlab Province

2.09 Of Pakistan's total population (1972 census) of 65 million, about37 million lived in PP. With the exception of Lahore, the provincial capitalwith a population of 2.4 million, there are eight cities in the Punjab withpopulations ranging from 100,000 in Guirat to 820,000 in Lyallpur with con-centrations in Rawalpindi (615,000) and Multan (544,0OO). There are alsosome 170 other towns, each with a population above 5,oon, making in all atotal urban population of 11.4 million. Most of these cities have only par-tial water supplies and little or no sewerage. Standards are low and inter-ruptions of service are frequent.

2.10 In the 1976-81 NDP the allocation to PP for the sector is aboutPRs one billion which includes the Lahore Phase II project and a projectfor Lyallpur, the second largest city in PP. The Asian Development Bank

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(ADB) is expected to finance the Lyallpur project. Because of the lack oflocal expertise, these two projects have been prepared by consultants. PHEDis also preparing projects for other large cities such as Multan, Sahiwal,Sargodha and Gujrat. PP does not at this time have prescribed rate policiesor a clear financing policy for the sector.

D. Water Supply and Sewerage in Lahore

2.11 In 1966 the Lahore Municipal Corporation (LMC) did not agree tothe setting up of an autonomous water supply authority for the Phase I proj-ect. PP, however, decided in 1973 to create such an authority and a Waterand Sewerage Authority - Lahore (WASAL) was created by statute in April 1975at the start of the appraisal of the Phase II project. WASAL, however, hada short existence as it was abolished when PP created the LDA in the samemonth, with responsibility for planning and development in the Lahore urbanarea including the water supply, sewerage and drainage sector, Discussionswere held with PP in September 1975 with a view to establishing a projectentity acceptable both to PP and IDA and a compromise solution was reachedof creating a semi-autonomous water agency under the LDA with its own managingdirector holding a seat on the board of the LDA (see para 5.02).

2.12 The water table in the Lahore area is receding because of in-creasing pumping for agricultural, public and industrial water supply. Thisis leading to the abandonment of mnany tubewells as the receding water leavesthe pump bowls exposed and to increases in pumping heads in the wells stilloperating. Most services are unmetered and many householders leave theirtaps open or fail to repair brokena taps. Leakage and wastage of water areso great that along with the low standards of operation and maintenance, itis not possible to maintain adequate pressure in most of the distributionsystem.

2.13 Only about 40% of the c:ity has been sewered. Older sewers weredesigned to carry some storm flows as well as sanitary sewage. Some of thenewer sewers have been designed on1 a separate basis. However, all the sewersin fact carry stormwater admitted through roof leaders, yard drains and streetinlets. The number of directly connected premises is unknown but is estimatedto be about one-quarter to one-th:Lrd of the total. Premises that are notconnected receive some service from the sewerage system in that it carriesaway overland flows of sullage water and ponded rainwater. Collected waste-water is mostly discharged outside the flood protection bund without treatment.A part is used for irrigation of crops and the balance finds its way to theRavi River.

E. Drainage

2.14 Except for Lahore, very little is known of drainage in other citiesin PP. In Lahore, there are several low lying areas which become floodedduring the monsoon season with attendant risk to life and property.

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III. THE PROJECT

A. Background and Objectives

3.01 The Phase I project which was appraised in April 1967 and com-pleted in July 1972 had the three objectives of creating an efficient insti-tution, developing a master plan for water supply, sewerage and drainage,and carrying out some rehabilitation and new construction works. Despiteinstitutional, financial and technical difficulties which required a projectrevision and the extension of the original closing date by almost 2-1/2 years,the project largely attained the objectives of meeting Lahore's urgentwater supply requirements and improving sewer service but with a resultingcost overrun of 120% more than half of which arose from the project revision.

3.02 With regard to the first objective, there was an inherent insti-tutional limitation which was recognized by PP and agreed to by IDA at thetime, because LMC was willing to go only as far as creating a project orientedinstitution. This caused uncertainty about LITWW's future, affected the at-titudes of its top management, caused a high turnover of staff, and explainsin part the lack of success by LITWW in implementing administrative and tech-nical systems developed by management consultants for long-term use. In re-gard to the other objectives, the project revision became necessary toaccommodate work done by LITWW outside the project. Also the high cost andpoor performance of management and engineering consultants provided littlebenefit to project implementation and without the intensive efforts of bothIDA and LITWW staff following the project revision, it would not have beenpossible to complete the enlarged project even by the extended closing date.

3.03 The primary objective of the Phase II project will be to continueand improve upon the work started in the Phase I project, to develop anefficient public utility organization and implement the three year construc-tion program summarized in para 3.04. On completion of construction, WASAshould be competent to continue the implementation of the remainder of theproposed ten year investment plan with the improved management, financialand technical standards achieved through the training program included inthe project (see para 3.04 and Annex 1).

B. Description

3.04 A full description of the project is given in Annexes 1 and 2 andillustrated in Maps IBRD 12095, 11913 and 11914. A summary is given below.A detailed project implementation schedule is included in para 45 of Annex 1.

1. Water Supply

(i) Tubewells. Construction of 47 four cfs tubewells.

(ii) Mains. Five miles of tubewell associated transmissionmains and 38 miles of main grid. The mains will include

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33 1/2 miles of asbestos cement pipe up to 24 inches dia-meter and 9 1/2 miles of reinforced concrete pressurepipe over 24 inches and up to 48 inches diameter, thelargest size to be used.

(iii) Distribution. Construction of 150 miles of distributionnetwork ranging from 3 inches to 8 inches in diameter forextensions, reinforcement and replacement.

(iv) Operations. Creation of a hydrology cell and a leakdetection and repair cell, the implementation of a plannedpreventive maintenance program, the metering of tubewellsand creation of a control center for tubewell pumpingand the implementation of arrangements for the propersurveillance of water quality and monitoring of theground water table. Appropriate spare parts, vehiclesand equipment are provided.

(v) Offices, housing and training. Offices for operationsand maintenance engineers and housing for key staffrequired to be available for emergencies and trainingfacilities (see para 5.09).

2. Sewerage and Drainage

(i) Trunk Sewers. About 17 miles of trunk sewers are tobe laid in sizes from 21 inches to 78 inches diameter.

(ii) Collectors. About 285 miles of collector sewers areto be laid in sizes from 9 inches to 18 inches diamer.

(iii) Sewage Pumping Stations. Four new pumping stations willbe built at Shad Bagh, Nawankot, Multan Road, and Shadharaand the capacity of the Main Outfall pumping stationwill be increasedl.

(iv) Sewage Treatment. A waste stabilization pondof about 75 acres at Shad Bagh and an environmentalstudy.

(v) Vehicles, Equipment, Housing, Offices and Training.Facilities for project supervision and operations andthe training of staff include vehicles, equipmentand a training unit.

(vi) Drainage. The construction or rehabilitation ofsecondary drainage channels - some 21 miles in total.

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3. Lahore Urban Development and Traffic Study

A study to be conducted with the assistance of consultants(165 man-months at an estimated cost of US$6,500 per man-monthexcluding travel and local expenses) over a two-year perioddesigned to prepare urban projects for appraisal within tenmonths and provide guidance in implementation and training fora subsequent period of 14 months (see Annex 9).

C. Cost Estimates

3.05 The estimated costs of the WASA project and the urban studies aresummarized below and are detailed in Annex 3.

Item Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total---------PRs 10'3------- ---------us$ 10 …-----

Water SupplyWells 22,495 11,149 33,644 2,272 1,126 3,398Pumphouses 2,988 13,040 16,028 302 1,317 1,619Main Grid 34,379 14,981 49,360 3,472 1,514 4,986Distribution Network 13,800 5,846 19,646 1,394 591 1,985Buildings 6,463 - 6,463 653 - 653Equipment 6,670 5,786 12,456 674 584 1,258Total 86,795 50,802 137,597 8,767 5,132 13,899

Sewerage and DrainagePumping Stations 22,139 8,736 30,875 2,236 883 3,119Trunk Sewers 22,966 12,336 35,302 2,320 1,246 3,566Collectors 34,783 18,730 53,513 3,513 1,892 5,405Stabilization Ponds 1,511 813 2,324 153 82 235Buildings 3,232 40 3,272 326 4 330Miscellaneous 41 1,465 1,506 4 148 152Drains 4,782 250 5,032 483 25 508Total 89,454 42,370 131,824 9,035 4,280 13,315

Land 10,376 - 10,376 1,048 - 1,048

Consulting Services 1,155 2,100 3,255 117 212 329

ContingenciesPhysical 35,480 19,054 54,534 3,584 1,924 5,508Price 66,331 34,071 100,402 6,700 3,442 10,142Total Contingencies 101,811 53,125 154,936 10,284 5,366 15,650

Administration /a 14,649 14,649 1,480 1,480

UNDP Financed Consultants _ 5,584 5,584 564 564

Total Water Supply, Sewerageand Drainage Project 304,240 153,981 458,221 30,731 15,554 46,285

Urban Studies - 15,840 15,840 - 1,600 1,600

GRAND TOTAL 304,240 169,821 474,061 30,731 17,154 47,885

/a Capitalized cost of WASA staff employed on the project.

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3.06 Of the estimated total WASA project cost of PRs 458.2 million,PRs 227.2 million is for water supply, PRs 217.1 million is for sewerageand PRs 13.9 million is for drainage. The three components of the projectare 50%, 47% and 3% respectively of the total project costs. Customs dutyand taxes amounting to PRs 45.2 million or 9.9% of the project costs areincluded in the above table. The consultants had recommended an investmentprogram for Phase II of US$54.0 million equivalent but this has been reducedto about US$46.3 million equivalent because PP wished to proceed cautiouslywith the water supply development until more is known about the groundwaterhydrology and to place greater priority on the sewerage service. WASA wasalso concerned that the increases in charges needed to support the largerinvestment would be unacceptable. Should the pumping tests and other hydro-logical studies indicate a need for even greater caution in the developmentof groundwater, the future work program may have to be revised.

3.07 Unit costs for the water mains and accessories have been preparedby LITWW staff from prevailing labor costs and manufacturer's prices. Forimported items, estimates were obtained from foreign manufacturers. Similarunit cost estimates were prepared for the sewerage component of the project.For the drainage component of the project, prevailing prices, in Lahore, forland, labor and materials were used. All prices have been adjusted to abase line of January 1976 and are reasonable.

3.08 Of the total WASA project costs, PRs 304.2 million (US$30.7 millionequivalent) are local costs and PRs 154.0 million (US$15.6 million equiva-lent) are foreign costs; a ratio of 66:34. The foreign cost componentwas estimated on the basis of the expected direct imports and the estimatedimport content of locally produced materials.

D. Contingencies

3.09 As most of the works are below ground and with major components onwhich there is little past experience in Lahore, there are a number of un-certainties which only the construction phase will reveal. For example,tubewells with greater depths than those drilled in the past are proposed.Some dry holes or additional wells to provide the required yield are there-fore anticipated. The sewer outfalls which are mostly in low ground and thewaste stabilization pond which is adjacent to the Ravi River could have sub-stantially increased construction costs because of flooding from unusualrains. Also, WASA will be using, for the first time, locally manufacturedprestressed concrete pipes which have been recently introduced in the Pro-vince. A greater than usual number of rejected pipes are anticipated. Toallow for this combination of uncertainties, the consultants proposal toprovide a physical contingency of 20% on all costs except land is reasonableand has been accepted.

3.10 In the absence of specific information, price contingencies havebeen based upon rates of 10% for equipment and 14% for civil works in 1976reducing to 8% for equipment and 12% for civil works in 1979 to reflectdeclining inflationary tendencies. The total amount is PRs 100.4 million -PRs 66.3 million on local costs and PRs 34.1 million on foreign costs.

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E. Amount of IDA Credit

3.11 (a) The credit of US$25.0 million for the WASA project would beabout 60Z of the total cost of the project net of duties. US$15.0 millionor 60% of the credit would finance foreign exchange expenditures. Thebalance of US$10.0 million or 40% of the credit would finance local currencyexpenditures.

(b) The cost of the urban development studies amounting to US$1.6million to finance foreign exchange expenditures, brings the total creditto US$26.6 million.

F. Procurement

3.12 All procurement of equipment and civil works, except for water mainrehabilitation, secondary drainage construction and buildings costing aboutUS$2.0 million, will be awarded on the basis of international competitivebidding in accordance with Bank Group "Guidelines" dated August 1975. Inaddition, any contract for water supply, sewerage and drainage equipmentestimated to cost less than US$50,000 equivalent with an aggregate of suchcontracts not exceeding US$500,000 equivalent, shall be awarded in accordancewith local procedures. A margin of preference up to 15% or customs duty,whichever is lower; would be granted to local manufacturers. No preferenceis proposed for civil works contractors as PP did not request any preferenceduring negotiations. However, there is provision for procuring a drillingrig, heavy duty tractor, crane, excavating machinery, high tensile wire,steel plate and some other materials in short supply valued at about US$0.5million. By this means assistance will be given, if requested, to the civilworks construction industry. Provision will be made in the respective biddocuments for the prepayment of these items and recovery from the bidder.Consultants for the Lahore urban development and traffic study whose quali-fications experience and terms and conditions of employment shall be acceptableto IDA will be retained by LDA.

G. Disbursement

3.13 The percentages and amounts of expenditures to be financed fromthe IDA Credit are given below and a quarterly disbursement forecast isshown in Annex 4.

(i) Civil works 50% of local expenditures US$11.2 millionor 100% of foreign expendi-tures

(ii) Equipment & Supplies 100% of foreign expenditures US$9.2 millionor 100% of local expenditures(ex-factory cost) or 40% ofthe cost of imported goodsprocured locally (being estimatedforeign exchange component)

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(iii) Consultants (Project) 100% US$0.5 million(iv) Unallocated Provision for physical con- US$4.1 million

tingencies and price escala-tion

(v) Consultants (Studies) 100o US$1.6 millionUS$26.6 million

H. Underspending of Funds

3.14 It is proposed that any unspent balance of the credit will becancelled.

I. Design, Construction and Suipervision of Construction

3.15 WASA will be responsible for carrying out the project. Con-sultants will assist in the preparation of detailed designs and biddocuments, evaluation of bids and supervision of construction. A sum ofUS$893,000 is provided in the project costs for this purpose and for makingpreliminary designs for the next phase. UNDP has agreed to finance US$564,000of this amount as a technical assistance project for which the Bank is theexecuting agency. It is proposed to follow the method, which was foundsuccessful in the Phase I project, of having consultants generally adviseWASA engineering staff and take responsibility only for those designs inwhich there is little local expertise and for which they will also providetraining (see para 5.11). CDM who prepared the project has been engagedfor this assistance for 52-man-months at an average monthly cost of aboutUS$8,000 excluding travel and local expenses. Agreement was reached withPP, LDA and WASA that WASA would employ engineering consultants whosequalifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment shall besatisfactory to IDA.

J. Construction Schedule

3.16 Project construction is expected to begin about January 1, 1977with completion scheduled for December 31, 1979 (see Annex 5). The closingdate for the IDA Credit would be December 31, 1980. Land acquisition shouldtake place before construction starts. Agreement was reached with PP, LDAand WASA that land acquisition w:Lll be carried out in accordance with a time-table consistent with the construction program and as shown in the implementa-tion schedule (see Annex 1, page 28).

K. Environmental Impact

3.17 The proposed project would directly benefit the environment inthe Lahore area by making it unnecessary to use private shallow tubewellswhich are probably contaminated; reducing the number of private waste water,sewage and night soil collection arrangements; controlling the drainage ofsewage into ditches and reducing minor flooding. About forty ponds totallingseventy acres scattered throughout the city will be drained, thereby reducingodors, nuisances, insects and health hazards. Untreated sewage and sullagewater is used extensively for the irrigation of vegetable crop that are eaten

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uncooked. The project includes a study to be made by the Lyallpur Agricul-tural University and the Institute of Public Health Engineering for selectingcrops which may be safely irrigated by raw sewage. Agreement was reached withPP, LDA and WASA and a covenant included in the draft legal documents thatWASA will carry out and complete by December 31, 1977 a study on the use ofsewage for the irrigation of crops and will exchange views with IDA regardingthe implementation of any recommendations for legislative action arising fromsuch study (see Annex 7, para 11).

3.18 In order to assist in planning the standard of sewage treatment,a long term program for monitoring the Ravi River water quality downstreamof Lahore is included in the project. Agreement was reached with PP, LDAand WASA, that WASA, with the help of consultants will carry out an environ-mental study of the Ravi River and exchange views with IDA regarding theimplementation of any recommendations for legislative action arising fromsuch study (see Annex 7 para 10).

IV. JUSTIFICATION

A. General

4.01 Lahore is the second largest city in Pakistan and is the capitalof PP. The existing water supply, sewerage and drainage facilities aredescribed in Annexes 6 and 7 and are inadequate in several respects. Thewater level in the aquifer is falling, about 75% of WASA's tubewell pumpsare defective and leakage and wastage is high, causing low and sometimesnegative pressures in the pipes. This allows the infiltration of pollutedground water into the mains with consequent health hazards. Only aboutone-quarter to one-third of the population receives direct sewer service.Most of the remainder are served by a combination of night soil service andoverland flows of sewage or sullage water to sewers or storm drains. Trunksewers are undersized and some flooding of streets occurs during peak periodsof flow. Considerable flooding takes place during the monsoon with attendantrisks to life and property. Due to the enlarging of the impervious built-upareas, flooding is increasing.

4.02 The project will help to alleviate these problems through improvinginstitutional efficiency, extending water supply, sewerage and drainageservices, reducing water-borne and fecal related diseases and increasingWASA's competency for continuing the implementation of the investment plan.

B. Population and Demand Projections

4.03 The population of WASA's water supply service area at the time ofthe September 1972 census is estimated by CDM to have been 2.1 million. Theannual growth rate of 4.35% is expected to continue, increasing the servicearea population to 2.4 million in 1975 and 3.0 million in 1980. In thisperiod the number of water service connections is expected to increase byabout 60X from 120,000 to 195,000 and population served by 43% from 1.4 million

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to 2.0 million. This excludes the additional 40,000 connections to be takenover from PHED and LDA (see para 6.07). This increase will be mostly in thepoorer areas and it is therefore :Lntended at this time to keep the number ofstandposts at the present total of 1,160. Steps will however be taken forimproving this service by controlLing vandalism and wastage. Water consump-tion estimates made on the basis of sample surveys by the consultants are onlyindicative as only 10% of water service connections are metered (see Annex 8).As none of the wells are metered and because of frequent mechanical and elec-trical failures, water production estimates are unreliable. In 1975 aver-age water production was about 66 IMgd giving a daily per capita use of27.5 gallons. This low water use will be increased during the projectperiod by the new works and reduction of leakage from the currently esti-mated 30% of production. Long term targets for the reduction of leakage willbe set following the start of a leakage survey to be initiated under the pro-ject. A public education program will be introduced by WASA to reduce wastage.The used water will be discharged into existing and proposed sewers eitherindirectly or through house sewer connections. About 20,000 premises willbenefit indirectly from the proposed 20% increase in the sewered area andanother 5,000 premises will benefit from house sewer connections, increasingthe total number of persons benefitting from the sewerage service by about250,000.

C. Least Cost Solution

4.04 The major project elements represent the least cost solution formeeting the project objectives (see para. 3.03). Wherever applicable,alternatives have been costed and the selected components had the lowestpresent cost at discount rates of 8%, 10% and 15%.

D. Economic Evaluation

4.05 (a) Water Supply - At the present time 92% of all connectionsare charged on a flat rate based on pipe size or a percentage of an AnnualRental Value (ARV) assessed by the Provincial Excise and Taxation Depart-ment (PETD). Effective January 1C977 all unmetered connections will becharged on the ARV basis. This charge is no measure of willingness to payfor incremental output. For most consumers the weter charge is an arbitrarypercentage of a general tax base and it cannot be avoided by not usingwater. Moreover since as indicated by an extensive study, metering watersupply in Lahore is rarely warranted it is not possible to demonstrateproject justificat 'on on the basis of consumers willingness to pay forwater supply or for its disposal (see part (b) below). The ultimatebenefits of the project namely, improvements in health, amenity and environ-ment cannot be quantified in economic terms. Only 8% of connections aremetered and it is proposed to carry out selective metering of commercialand industrial connections which use water as part of their working processand domestic properties where cattle or horses are kept or which have largegardens. A comprehensive program of consumer sampling will be made toestablish which consumers should be metered and what benchmarks should beused for capacity planning and billing control. A program for this isincluded in the project implementation schedule (see Annex 1, para 45, B6).

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Metering to control normal domestic use of water cannot be justified due tothe low production cost of water at present but continual reassessment ofthis policy must be carried out in view of the lowering water table and theincreasing power costs, which over time will make metering increasinglyjustified. The proposed price of metered water at PRs 3.00 per 1,000gallons (US$0.24 per 1,000 gallons) is high in relation to the marginal costof water estimated at about PRs 1.00 per 1,000 gallons (US$0.08 per 1,000US gallons). The metered price will however be a restraint on excessiveconsumption of water by metered consumers and along with charges for unmeteredconsumers, will provide revenues sufficient to supply water for standpostusers who constitute about 17% of the service area population.

(b) Sewerage and Drainage There are no direct charges for sewerageand drainage and none are proposed since these services are popularly heldto be covered by property tax; part of this tax will continue to be trans-ferred to WASA (see para 6.10). For the same reasons as those discussed inpart (a) above on the water supply component it is not possible to demonstrateproject justification for the sewerage and drainage components on the basisof willingness to pay for these services. The economic benefits from theproject which are quantifiable are land value enhancement, increased agri-cultural output attributed to the use of waste water for irrigation andsavings on night soil collections. About 40 ponds totalling 70 acres,scattered throughout the city will be drained. It is estimated that afurther 30 acres adjoining the ponds would also be improved. Total areabenefiting from the project will therefore be about 100 acres. Ponded areasare estimated to improve from a nil value to the value of land in thesurrounding area. Land adjoining the ponded areas is assumed to rise invalue from PRs 8,000 per acre to the value of land in the area. Substantialeconomic benefit is derived from the use of waste water for irrigationpurposes. It is estimated that an additional 5,000 acres can be irrigatedby the waste water removed from the city as a result of the Phase II proj-ect. The estimated value of increased output for land under fodder is PRs1,600 and for land under vegetables is PRs 1,000 per year per acre. The

benefit from the project in respect of all these factors is estimated tobe about PRs 7.5 million a year from savings on nightsoil collections andincreased output of crops from irrigation with an increase in value of landfrom draining of ponds amounting to PRs 15.8 million. These benefits alonewill produce a modest but positive rate of return of about one percent whichis significant when considered along with the benefits to health, convenienceand environment which however cannot be quantified in economic terms.

E. Urban Development and Traffic Study

4.06 Lahore's urban problems are described in a Master Plan for GreaterLahore, prepared in the 1960's and published by PP in 1973. Already then

urgent needs existed for public services to residential housing and therehabilitation of low-income neighborhoods; there was a deficit in affordablelow cost shelter to house an estimated 500,000 squatters; there was a needfor improved transportation and for integrated urban planning that wouldrationally relate commercial employment, transportation, residential develop-ment and other sectors. The conditions that exisSed in the 1960s have been

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aggravated in the intervening years. Physical and social infrastructureshave deteriorated and, with the city's growth, the distribution of economicactivities and labor location hatve become more disparate while transport-ation services deteriorated. PP and GOP desire to actively address andsolve the major existing problems of Lahore, to guide its physical andeconomic growth and to initiate development projects for which preinvest-ment assistance and training are needed. The Lahore urban development andtraffic study is designed to meet some of the most urgent needs in thisarea.

V. THE BORROWER AND BENEFICIARY

A. The Borrower

5.01 The borrower will be the Islamic Republic of Pakistan whichwill make the proceeds of the IDA credit available to the PunjabProvince for on-lending to WASA and LDA (see para 6.08).

B. The Beneficiary

5.02 The principal beneficiary, WASA, has been created by a Special Ordermade under an Ordinance amending the Lahore Development Authority Act 1975.WASA is a semi-autonomous agency under the LDA. The agency was createdas a result of discussions between PP and IDA in September 1975. WASAwill have adequate powers to operate the water supply, sewerage anddrainage systems within the city of Lahore, to carry out the project, tomaintain its own funds in a separate bank account and to make its own rules.The approval of the amending Ordinance by the Provincial Assembly wasgiven during the March/April 1976 seasion.

5.03 The Board of LDA is ch.aired by the Chief Minister of the Punjaband would have ten other members made up of two ministers, the chairman ofthe Planning Board, four secretaries to the government, the mayor of Lahore,the director general of LDA and the managing director of WASA. This is apowerful board with the capacity for making decisions and getting thingsdone. However, it is a new body and basically a planning and developmentinstitution and its performance :Ln managing the water supply, sewerage anddrainage services as a public utility will require to be monitored by IDAand evaluated at the end of the project (see Annex 1, para 48).

C. Organization and Management

5.04 The chief executive officer of WASA is the managing director whowill have full executive powers for the administration of WASA except fortariff fixing, annual budget and capital program approval, major contractawards, appointment of senior staff, fixing salary structure and staffinglevels, and incurring of long-term debt. These matters will remain theprerogative of the LDA Board and PP. The proposed organization chart of

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key positions for WASA is satisfactory and is shown in Annex 10. Agreementwas reached with PP, LDA and WASA that WASA's organization will be staffeddown to director level by December 1, 1976 in accordance with the organizationchart.

D. Management Systems

5.05 Systems for the financial management of WASA have been designed byfinancial consultants and are now in the process of implementation. Theseinclude financial and budgetary controls, reporting procedures and redesignedaccounting and billing and collection systems, and training of staff in theiroperation. The services of the consultants will be extended for long enoughfor this work to be taken over by a management team to be provided by the UKOverseas Development Ministry (ODM)(see para 5.08). The systems are satis-factory and the project implementation schedule contains target dates fortheir introduction.

E. Staffing

5.06 The staff of the former LITWW and latterly the LDA Water Wingwill form the new WASA and except for some additional technical staff re-quired for the project, is adequate. The position of managing directorhas been filled by the former Project Director who was the most suitablecandidate for this appointment having been involved in the preparation ofthe present project during the last twelve months. He was also for sometime director of construction during the first IDA project and is familiarwith IDA procedures. Additional technical and accounting staff belowdirector level (see Annex 1, para 29) will be required to carry out theproject and to operate the improved accounting billing and collection systems.WASA has undertaken to prepare a detailed organization chart for positionsbelow director level and fill the vacancies. Agreement was reached with PP,LDA and WASA that they will cause WASA to continue to fill the position ofmanaging director with a person having appropriate qualifications and ex-perience and that WASA will be staffed with qualified people in sufficientnumbers. It was also agreed that IDA would be consulted on the appointmentof any future managing director. Agreement was also reached that WASA willfollow personnel policies that will be no less attractive than those of otherpublic utility authorities (like WAPDA) in attracting and keeping qualifiedstaff (Annex 1, para 33 (i)).

F. Training

5.07 There are adequate facilities for professional training in Pakistanand these supply a steady flow of graduates in engineering and commerce.However, there is a drain of experienced professional and subprofessionalstaff to the Middle East and a positive staff recruitment, retention, andtraining program is being prepared by WASA.

5.08 An important feature of the training program will be theprovision by ODM of a management team initially of five people for threeyears. The primary function of the team will be to establish a training

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unit and to train counterpart and other staff. The team will be made upof specialists in engineering management, financial management, leak detec-tion and repair, maintenance, procurement and training. Agreement was reachedwith PP, LDA and WASA that technical assistance satisfactory to IDA will beprovided throughout the project period.

5.09 Many of the more senior positions are held by seconded engineersfrom PHED. The training program will enable these persons to be replacedby WASA's own trained staff. Agreement was reached with PP, LDA and WASAthat WASA will make every effort to replace all seconded engineers withtheir own staff by the end of the project period (see Annex 1, para 34).

5.10 Another aspect of the training program will be the provision underthe project of a small residential training school capable of classroomtraining of twenty staff members at a time. Agreement was reached withPP, LDA and WASA that WASA will establish a training unit and carry out atraining program.

5.11 Manufacturers are expected to provide some specialist trainingand under the UNDP Project, the consultants' work includes a large train-ing element in design, tendering, contracting, and construction supervision.The UNDP is also financing eight overseas fellowships (see Annex 1, SectionE).

G. Audit

5.12 Annual audits are performed by local professional accounting firmsbut have been unsatisfactory in the past, due to the lateness of the appoint-ment of the auditor. Thus, no concurrent audit work has been possible andthe audit reports have been received so long after the year's end, as tolose much of their effectiveness. In addition to this, the state of theaccounting records was such as to reduce the scope of the actual auditcarried out. With the new systems of accounting now being implemented andthe early and regular appointment of auditors in future, these problemsshould be eliminated. Agreement was reached with PP, LDA and WASA thatindependent auditors acceptable to IDA will be appointed for periods of atleast two years at a time to achieve continuity and before the commencementof the period to the audited and that the audit report will be produced, re-viewed by the Board and furnished to IDA within six months of the end of eachfiscal year.

H. Operations

5.13 Several improvements in WASA's operations are included in theproject. These improvements include the setting up of an adequately staffedand equipped hydrology cell and a leak detection and repair cell. A plannedpreventive maintenance program for all mechanical and electrical plant hasbeen prepared and there is provision in the project for the necessary tools,equipment and spare parts to implement the program. Metering of water pro-duction and selective metering of domestic and industrial consumption is

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also included in the project for priority implementation. Necessary labora-tory equipment has also been provided to enable routine surveillance ofwater quality. Agreement was reached with PP, LDA and WASA that WASA willmake these improvements and meet the targets set out in the implementationschedule detailed in Annex 1 (see para 6.21).

I. Project Risks

5.14 There is adequate provision in the project for engineering con-sultants to advise WASA with design and construction and for a managementteam to assist with operations and training. However, as a new organizationWASA would require time to overcome the institutional short-comings inheritedfrom the former LITWW (see paras 2.11 and 3.02). Nevertheless, WASA's presentmanaging director is capable, and the powers conferred upon him, under theLDA act are adequate to enable him to carry out the project as planned andachieve project targets. It is also possible that because the Chief Ministeris Chairman of LDA, important decisions would be implemented expeditiously.

5.15 In order to maintain its role in the long process of institutionbuilding, IDA should continue its financial participation and accept therisk of dealing with a new institution. Supervision missions will be alertto this problem and recommend steps during project implementation to correctany situation before it seriously affects the project.

J. Lahore Urban Development and Traffic Studies

5.16 The LDA has broad powers and responsibilities for the formulationand implementation of urban development programs in Lahore and for regulatoryfunctions in a metropolitan area of about 680 square miles. At present, LDAis executing several housing schemes and has a small staff unit in urban andregional planning. However, a review of IDA's existing and prospectivestaff capabilities in September 1975 indicated that LDA would not be ableto undertake the proposed urban development and traffic study withoutmajor outside consulting assistance. Agreement was reached with PP and LDAthat PP shall cause the LDA to carry out and complete by December 1978 thestudy with the assistance of consultants whose qualifications, experienceand terms and conditions of employment shall be satisfactory to IDA.

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VI. FINANCE

A. Past Performance and Present Financial Position of WASA

6.01 Before the establishment of LITWW in 1967, the water supply andsewerage operations of Lahore Municipal Corporation (LMC) were characterizedby repeated annual operating losses in the order of PRs 1.0 to 3.0 million.These were due to low tariffs, abnormally high operating costs andlack of proper maintenance. The transfer of responsibility from LMCto LITWW and doubling of water rates in 1967 were designed to improve thissituation but while some progress was made, annual losses continued-FY1968PRs 0.8 million, FY1969 PRs 1.2 million and FY1970 PRs 2.5 million.

6.02 Annexes 11, 12 and 13 show income and expense statements, cashflow statements and balance sheets for the past five years -- FY1971 to 1975and projections through FY1983. The assumptions for financial projectionsare shown at Annex 14. The figures are taken from the audit reports for theyears FY1971 to 1974, from estimates for FY1975 and FY1976 and from themission's projections through FY1983. The financial performance of LITWW hasfallen far behind that forecast at the time of appraisal of Phase I in1967. Revenues have lagged as much as 50% behind the forecasts, whereas ex-penditures have climbed to almost match the forecasts. Collection of onlyabout 30% of billings in any one year has resulted in accounts receivableclimbing to an amount larger than one year's billings, in FY1975. Thebilling records, themselves, contain many errors and do not, at present,include all the charges that should be billed and the billing itself is sixmonths in arrears. The effects of these poor performances have been to makeit necessary for LITWW to use some loan and grant monies to finance operat-ing costs and also to reduce the rate of return on average net fixed assetsfrom a forecast 6% to a very small or even a negative figure.

6.03 Flat rate water charges were doubled in January 1975 with thelowest rate increased from PRs 6.00 a month to PRs 12.00 a month. Meteredcharges were increased from PRs 1.50 to PRs 2.00 per 1,000 gallons fordomestic consumers and from PRs 2.00 to PRs 3.00 per 1,000 gallons forcommercial and industrial consumers. No charges were made for the sewerageand drainage service. These charges are shown at Annex 15. CDM assistedby Fergusons has designed a new billing and collection system which willmake better use of a computer operated by the WASA's bank in Karachi. Thenew system should give WASA better control over the billing and collectioncycle, enable consumers' complaints to be dealt with promptly and ensurethe efficient disconnection of delinquent consumers (see para 6.10).

6.04 CDM, assisted by Fergusons, has also reviewed all of the account-ing systems in use, and has redesigned these where necessary to accuratelyrecord and control the financial affairs of WASA and to produce promptlyall the reports, statistics and accounts needed by management for decision-making and for planning. Manuals have been prepared, the redesigned systemshave been introduced, and the staffE are being trained in the use of thesesystems. This training will continue under the guidance of the ODM experts.

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6.05 Apart from the IDA/SIDA Credits of US$3.5 million equivalent and

a small loan from LDA, all of the loans to LITWW, amounting to US$12.6 millionequivalent, have come from PP and at the end of FY1975 the outstanding loanstotalled about US$16.0 million equivalent. At this time, net assets withwork in progress totalled about US$14.8 million or rather less than theloan debt total. The debt equity ratio was 84:16.

B. Financing Plan of WASA

6.06 The financing plan for the years of the project's implementation-- FY1977 to FY1980 -- is summarized below:

WASA FUNDS REQUIREMENTS AND SOURCES FY1977 TO FY1980

PRs US$ Percentage(millions)

Requirements

Project expenditures 458.2 46.3 88.4Start of next phase 60.0 6.1 11.6

Total 518.2 52.4 100.0

Sources

Internal Cash Generation 142.4 14.4 27.4

Less: Increase in workingcapital 37.8 3.8 7.2

Debt Service 44.6 4.5 8.6Total Deductions 82.4 8.3 15.8

Net internal cash generation 60.0 6.1 11.6

Borrowings

Proposed IDA credit 247.5 25.0 47.7Provincial government loan 205.1 20.7 39.5

Total borrowings 452.6 45.7 87.2

Technical Assistance Grant

UNDP payment for consultants 5.6 0.6 1.2

TOTAL 518.2 52.4 100.0

US$25.0 million of the proposed IDA Credit will provide about 48% of thefinancing required during the project period. PP would provide US$20.7 mil-lion or about 40% of the financing and UNDP would provide US$0.6 million

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or about 1% of the financing for employing consultants. The balance offinancing amounting to US$6.1 mLllion or about 12% of the financing planwill be provided by internal cash generation. The financing plan is satis-factory. During negotiations it: was disclosed that WASA would acquiresome PRs 45.0 million worth of assets during FY 1977 to FY 1979 includingabout 40,000 new connections from PHED and LDA at no cost. This has beenaccounted for in the financial projections.

6.08 GOP will make the proceeds of the IDA credit available to PP foronlending to LDA and WASA under a subsidiary loan agreement to be enteredinto between GOP, PP, LDA and WASA under terms and conditions acceptableto IDA. GOP proposes to onlend the proceeds of the credit to PP on IDAterms and PP proposes to onlend the proceeds of the credit to WASA for watersupply, sewerage and drainage and to LDA for the urban development studiesat 8-3/4% for 25 years with a grace period and waiver of interest for fiveyears. The effective rate for the loan period will be 7.0%. The executionof the subsidiary loan agreement: is a condition of effectiveness of thecredit.

6.09 PP will make a loan to LDA for onlending to WASA of an amount ofUS$20.7 million equivalent on terms and conditions mutually satisfactoryto IDA and PP. The financial projections are based on a twenty five yearterm at 3-1/2% interest with a grace period and waiver of interest for fiveyears. The effective rate of interest for this loan would be 2.8%, whichis low, particularly in reference to the need for maximum resource mobiliza-tion, but is justified because of the low revenue earning capacity of thesewerage and drainage component.

C. Present Charging System

6.10 The Greater Lahore Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Ordinance1967, Schedule II (as subsequently amended) prescribed monthly charges fordomestic water supplies related to the size of ferrule 1/ and the number oftaps; subject to an alternative charge of a percentage of the annual rentalvalue (ARV) if this produced a higher sum. Fixed charges were prescribedfor unmetered katries (private standposts) and commercial premises and forhamams (public bathhouses). Religious and charitable institutions were tobe charged at half the domestic rate. The Ordinance did not prescribe whichpremises should be metered, but provided for charges per thousand gallons fordomestic supplies with increased charges for commercial and industrial use,meter rents, minimum charges and a special rate for bulk supplies. A meteredcharge payable by the "Municipal Committee" for water supplied by communitystandposts, was laid down. All charges were subject to a surcharge of 10%

1/ A ferrule is a metal adaptor for making a tight joint between a watermain and a service pipe.

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if payment is not made by the due date. The Ordinance prescribed separaterates as percentages of net annual value for sewerage and drainage, althoughthese have never been collected, and acreage charges for the disposal of sew-age from premises occupied by corporate bodies and factories. A part of theoperating costs of the sewerage and drainage services has been met by a trans-fer of property tax from PETD to LITWW. This tax is charged on all propertiesand collected by PETD. The proportion transferred was increased in FY1975 andhas been increased again recently. This is shown in Annex 11 as Sewered AreaRate. Agreement was reached with PP, LDA and WASA that PP will transfer toWASA during each fiscal year until June 30, 1986 not less than 42.5% ofproperty tax collected in Lahore.

D. Application of Charging System

6.11 The basis of charging on the size of ferrule and number of taps wasintroduced as a financial incentive to help conserve water. Less waterwould be used with a smaller size pipe and fewer taps. In order to achievethis objective it is essential that every new connection is inspected beforethe excavation is back filled to ensure that the size of the ferrule connec-tion is recorded accurately; and a continuous process of inspection is neces-sary to ensure that taps added after connection, are recorded and charged.Neither of these essential requirements is observed by LITWW and, in conse-quence most unmetered connections are recorded as 1/4" ferrule with not morethan 2 taps. Out of 95,489 unmetered consumers at June 30, 1974, only29,394 or 30% were charged more than the minimum of PRs 18 (US$1.82) perquarter on account of higher ARVs.

6.12 In January 1975, the records of LITWW indicated that 8,477 consu-mers were billed as metered connections, but in fact only about 60% of thesehave effectively registering meters. The remainder are out of order or miss-ing. Even where meters are registering, bills are sometimes issued on anestimated consumption basis or for false consumptions.

6.13 LMC has declined to pay any charges for water taken by communitystand posts because when they owned the system, no charge was made. Nodirect charges are made for the sewerage service at present (see para 6.10).

E. Tariff Study

6.14 The inadequacies of the present charging system prompted GOP toinclude a tariff study to be carried out by CDM in preparation for the PhaseII project. The main recommendation of the study concerns flat rate chargeswith the abolition of the charge on ferrule size and the use of ARV as abasis for flat rate charges. The proposed tariff to be implemented inJanuary 1977 was arrived at in consultation with PP, LDA and WASA and isshown in Annex 16. The proposals are reasonable and are used in the finan-cial projections. However, the recommendation to use flat rate charges onthe basis of ARV will require that WASA carries out a major improvement toits recording of ARVs for each house. ARVs are revalued every five years

- 22 -

by PETD and agreement was reached with PP, that it will cause PETD to supplyWASA with full details of all ARVs and that these will be kept up to dateon at least a monthly basis in the form of computer printouts or otherlistings.

6.15 The study concluded that universal metering should not be appliedin Lahore as the saving of water required to make this financially viablecould not be achieved. This confirms a previous recommendation made byBank staff. The study recommends an increase in the metered rate of chargeand to make the charge uniform to all categories of metered consumers.

6.16 PP has agreed to impose an increased water charge effectiveJanuary 1, 1977 and to make subsequent increases which would be sufficientto yield a return on revalued net fixed assets in service of 4% in FY1978 toFY1980, 5% in FY1981 and FY1982 and 6% from FY1983 onwards. PP did not agreeto the imposition of a separate sewerage charge on the grounds that thisservice is already financed by the existing property tax, part of whichis, in fact, already transferred to WASA (see para 6.10) and an additionalsewer charge would arouse adverse public reaction. PP has also takeninto account new housing development (see para 6.07) and hence more rapidgrowth in revenues. The water charges proposed by PP are satisfactoryand the major ones are:

Flat rate - Fixed monthly rates up to PRs 1,500 ARV, thereafter20% of ARV annually.

Metered rate - PRs 3.00 per 1,000 gallons with a minimumcharge related to meter size.

A study of the ability to pay, of a household in the minimum income bracket,1/was made by the consultants who established that at 5% of monthly income, sucha family could afford PRs 155 a year for water supply and sewerage servicesin FY1977. The cost to such a family living in a house with an ARV ofPRs 300, would be PRs 144 a year on the proposed tariff.

F. Future Finance

6.17 The projections through FY1983 show, that on the basis of the newcharges in FY1977 and assumed further increases of 30% in FY1979, 20% inFY1981 and 10% in FY1983, billed income will rise from PRs 25.4 million inFY1976 to PRs 152.6 million in 1983. In the same period net revenue isexpected to improve ffrom PRs 10.4 million to PRs 42.8 million but thisimprovement derives mainly from the water supply service. The overall rateof return on unrevalued average net fixed assets in FY1981 is 7.3% made upof 13.3% on water assets and zero percent (break even) on sewerage and

1/ The household minimum income bracket in based on a GOP study of house-hold income and expenditure in 1972 and on a low income housing in urbanareas in 1972.

- 23 -

drainage assets. The cost of the sewerage and drainage service is high in

relation to the income -- there is no income from drainage -- so that these

services are less financially viable than the water supply service. Forcomparison purposes an estimate of average net fixed assets has been made

on an annual revaluation basis and the rate of return in FY1981 is about

5% made up of about 9% on water assets which is commendable and zero percent

on sewerage assets. The basis for calculating the annual revaluation is past

GOP price indices and future inflation factors as used for project price

contingencies. The overall rate of return although low is reasonable andwill be achieved by the imposition of large increases in the charges for

the water supply service. The income from these charges will cover all

operating costs and debt service charges and from FY1980 will cover 25% or

more of future development. The assumptions used in the financial projections

are shown in Annex 14.

6.18 The concept of fixing tariffs by reference to a rate of return on

assets is not customary in the water supply sector in Pakistan and the idea

of revaluing assets periodically to reflect inflation is equally uncommon.

However, agreement was reached during negotiations with PP, LDA and WASA

that LDA and WASA will (1) complete by not later than June 30, 1977 aninventory of all WASA's physical assets and adjust WASA's books of account

to record such assets at their correct historical cost (2) revalue theseassets each year on the basis of increases in the Pakistan Government's

consumer general price index number and achieve the rate of return targets

(see para 6.16).

6.19 The consultants have made detailed recommendations for making im-

provements in billing and collection. These are satisfactory and are anessential part of the project and agreement was reached with PP, LDA and

WASA that LDA and WASA will take whatever action is necessary to ensure that

WASA's outstanding receivables are reduced to 100% of billings in FY 1977,60% in FY 1979, 20% in FY 1981 and 15% from FY 1982 onwards. As well as the

improvement in the billing system it is necessary to correct the basic in-formation upon which the billing is carried out. A survey of the wholeservice area for water and sewer connections would be carried out by a special

section set up for this purpose and make the corrections in a period of oneyear. This period is probably optimistic for the amount of work to be carried

out, nevertheless an early completion date is necessary and a reasonable

target period of say two years should be set. Agreement was reached with PP,LDA and WASA that LDA and WASA would by June 30, 1978 carry out a survey of

the whole of WASA's service area.

6.20 Although the borrowing program for WASA is heavy, the debt service

requirements in the first five years of the projections are amply covereddue to the 5-year grace period including waiver of interest. From FY1981

however, debt service requirements rise very rapidly but are covered 1.3

times in FY1982. Because debt service requirements will continue to rise,agreement was reached with PP, LDA and WASA that no further debt shallbe incurred by WASA unless the net revenue of WASA shall exceed 1.25 times

- 24 -

the maximum debt service requirements for any succeeding year. Again,because of the heavy borrowing program the debt/equity ratio is high at71:29 in FY1983 but this should improve in later years. WASA's capitalexpenditures outside the proposed project would be limited to US$1.0 millionper year.

G. Performance Monitoring

6.21 The past performance of LITWW has been unsatisfactory in mostaspects of management. It will be necessary to closely monitor all futureperformances of the new WASA arnd the project implementation schedule detailedin para 47 of Annex 1 includes a list of key indicators for monitoring pur-poses. Agreement was reached with PP, LDA and WASA that WASA will carryout the project with due diligence and efficiency and in conformity withappropriate administrative, financial, engineering and public utilitypractices and in accordance with the implementation schedule.

H. Insurance

6.22 Materials for the prcject will be fully insured. Since WASA isGovernment owned, it does not carry other insurance. Agreement was reachedwith PP, LDA and WASA that WASA will (1) insure all of the imported goods tobe financed out of the proceeds of the credit and (2) make provisionssatisfactory to IDA for insurance against such risks and in such amountsas shall be consistent with appropriate practice in Pakistan.

VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION

7.01 Agreement has been reached with GOP, PP, LDA ard WASA on thefollowing principal points which have been recorded as covenants in thedraft legal documents:

(a) (i) The proceeds of the credit will be made available to PPon terms and conditions acceptable to IDA and (ii) Theproceeds of the credit will be onlent by PP to LDA and WASAat 8-3/4% for 25 years with a grace period and a waiverof interest for 5 years (para 6.08).

(b) WASA will carry out ani inventory of all physical assetsand adjust its books of account to record these assetsat correct historical costs by June 30, 1977 and alsocarry out an annual revaluation of physical assets(para 6.18).

- 25 -

(c) PP, LDA and WASA will adjust and maintain rates and chargesfor water, sewerage and drainage services to provide areturn on average net fixed assets of 4% in FY 1978 to FY 1980,5% in FY 1981 and FY 1982 and 6% in FY 1983 and thereafter(para 6.18).

(d) PP, LDA and WASA will ensure that WASA would make everyeffort to improve its billing and collections so as toreduce its net accounts receivable excluding current billingsto agreed levels (para 6.19).

7.02 A condition of credit effectiveness is the execution of a subsidiaryloan agreement on terms and conditions acceptable to IDA between GOP, PP, LDAand WASA for onlending the proceeds of the credit to LDA and WASA (para 6.08).

7.03 The project including the urban studies is suitable for a creditof US$26.6 million - US$25.0 million for water supply, sewerage and drainageand US$1.6 million for urban development studies.

April 13, 1976

ANNEX 1Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

A. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT - WATER SUPPLY AND PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

1. The overall Phase II project objectives are summarized in para-graph 3.03 of the main report. The existing water supply facilities, watersources and hydrology are described in Annex 6. The consultants have prepareda new Master Plan for a ten-year period ending 1986 and recommended a three-year investment program for Phase II estimated to cost US$54 million equiv-alent, with investments in water supply, sewerage and drainage in the approxi-mate percentages of 53, 30 and 17. However, because of the Province's desireto proceed cautiously with water supply development until more is known ofthe groundwater hydrology (Annex 6, para 15), concern that the increasesin rates and tariffs needed to support an investment of this size would bedifficult to impose and collect, the placing of greater priority by Govern-ment at this time on sewerage rather than water supply and the need forWASA's new management to substantially improve operational and financialperformance, the proposed investment in the Phase II project is reduced toUS$44 million equivalent in the percentages of 50, 47 and 3, between watersupply, sewerage and drainage. The shortfall is proposed by WASA for in-clusion in a future Phase III project.

2. The physical components of the project are:

(i) Tubewells. 47 to be constructed to varying depths ofpumphousing and bore and with 14 electric and 17 naturalgas engine driven vertical pumps and 16 electric sub-mersible pumps.

(ii) Mains. 2-1/2 miles of AC pipe and 2-1/2 miles of RCPpipe connecting the tubewells and 31 miles of AC and7 miles of RCP pipe for the main grid. Pipe sizes willvary from 12 inches to 48 inches.

(iii) Distribution Network. About 150 miles of piping from3 to 8 inches installed in 3,030 acres and for reinforce-ment and replacement.

(iv) Detailed Design. Consultants financed by the UNDP Projectfor which the Bank is executing agency will provide 18 man-months of design work and training of the hydrology cellstaff.

(v) Operations. A leak detection cell will be established byWASA and a specialist will be provided under the UNDP Project

ANNEX 1Page 2

who will design a program to be carried out during theproject by the staff of the cell. The staff will betrained by the specialist and later by the ODM team.ODM will also assist in training WASA staff in a plannedpreventive maintenance program for plant, particularlypumps and motors. Spare parts and tools for repairs andvehicles for transporting men and materials are alsoincluded.

(vi) Meters. Meters for the selective metering of commercial,industrial and large domestic consumers and for installa-tion on tubewells, amounting to 7,400 in total, are includedin the project.

(vii) Radio Communication for well centers and other operationalcenters is provided.

(viii) Offices, Housing and Training and Facilities. Two officesfor senior engineers and ten offices for junior engineers,accounting machines, housing for essential workers, andfive houses for senior staff are included in the project.A small training building for about 20 students is alsoprovided.

B. DESIGN

Tubewells

3. In addition to reducing the number of wells from the numberrecommended by the consultants as shown below, WASA proposes a more con-servative design for the wells and an Immediate Works Program to be under-taken by WASA ahead of the proposed Phase II project.

Consultants Reduced ProgramRecommended

Wells Program Immediate Phase II Total4 cfs. (3-years) Works (FY1976) (FY1977-79) (FY1976-79)

Electric SubmersiblePumps 18 - 16 16

Electric Vertical TurbinePumps 33 12 14 26

Gas Vertical Turbine Pumps 24 _ 17 17

Total 75 12 47 59

ANNEX 1Page 3

4. On the basis of the review of the groundwater hydrology studiescarried out by the consultants there are two options for the selection oftubewell pump housing depths. The first option is to accept the consult-ants recommendations (Annex 6, para 19) for the preliminary engineeringdesign and cost estimates for wells with pump housings going down to amaximum depth of 220 feet and base the final engineering design on theresults of pumping tests to be carried out under the UNDP Project. If thiscourse of action is followed and should the pumping tests and studiesindicate a greater regional drawdown than assumed by the consultants, thereduced program discussed above may have to be even further reduced. Thesecond option will be to base pump housing depths upon two factors (1) WASA'sforecast of regional drawdown (Annex 6, para 20) which shows that this couldvary between 400 feet and 270 feet in the high demand areas of the city and200 feet at the periphery and (2) the consultants economic studies whichshow that with a drawdown greater than about 322 feet, wells within Lahoremay become more and more uneconomic (Annex 6, para 22). WASA proposesfollowing the second option for the purposes of making the preliminaryengineering calculations and cost estimates. Based upon this option thefollowing depths have been selected for the 59 wells:

Wells (Nos.) 19 20 10 10

Pump Housing depth (feet) 200 250 300 350

Boring depths (feet) 415 465 515 565

5. The forty-seven wells which are in the Phase II project will beconstructed with stainless steel screens and the 12 wells in the ImmediateWorks Program will be constructed with fibre glass screens. At January1976 prices (excluding contingencies) the average cost of a well with stain-less steel screens at the above depths is about PRs 348,000. The consult-ants' estimate of cost for a 220 feet deep well is PRs 257,000. Should thepumping tests and further analysis indicate WASA assumptions are conservative,there could be a saving of about PRs 4.3 million on the 47 wells to be builtin the Phase II project. This saving could be utilized in building add-itional wells and water pipelines as a continuation of the work in the newMaster Plan. These proposals represent the least cost solution on the basisof the present information and will be revised when more data becomesavailable in the coming years. The reference numbers o.. aie 12 wells tobe built i., the Immediate Works Program and 47 wells to be built in thePhase II project are listed below and shown in IBRD Map 11913.

ANNEX 1Page 4

1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79Well Housing Well Housing Well Housing Well HousingNo. Depth feet No. Depth feet No. Depth feet No. Depth feet

20 300 27 200 19 250 39 35021 300 45 300 33 300 48 25032 300 77 200 35 300 51 30034 250 85 200 37 350 55 25040 200 121 250 38 350 57 25049 300 128 250 41 300 63 25062 300 six wells 350 43 350 65 20074 200 64 200 118 20080 200 75 200 four wells 250122 200 86 250131 200 90 200134 200 91 200

101 200123 250125 200129 200130 200

six wells 250

12 12 23 12

6. The 12 wells in the 11975/76 Immediate Works Program will be builtto meet unsatisfied demand and replace some of the capacity lost by theretirement of 30 wells in that time (Annex 8). The sites of the 47 wellsin the Phase II project are selected for meeting (1) demand in new areas -14 Nos., (2) replacement wells - 17 Nos., and (3) high demand areas - threewell centers of six, six and four wells respectively.

Pumps and Motors

7. Submersible units and motors will be installed at all of the 16wells at the three well centers. Pump houses are not required, and eachmotor is to be connected to the starter by underground cable. One controlbuilding is to be provided to accommodate the starter units, and provideslhelter for the operator. In this manner, only one operator, per shift,would be required at each well center. Since the three well centers arelocated in areas which are subjected to flooding, the well casing wouldbe extended to the height of the Bund Road, and the area around the wellwould be filled. The consultants have recommended a generator sized tosupply power to operate all the wells at each well center. This would beincluded in the next phase of the project to provide standby service in theevent of a power failure. LITWW has obtained assurances from the WAPDAthat power will be available for the project. All of the remaining wellsare to be at separate locations, and it would not be practical to providestandby power for each well sile. Some standby capacity is provided inthe Pnase II project and adequate capacity to meet average day demands will

ANNEX 1Page 5

be provided in the future if electrical outages become a serious problemto satisfactory water supply operations. Vertical turbine pumps drivenby gas engines will be installed at 17 wells at sites where gas is availa-able. The remaining 26 wells including the immediate works program wouldhave vertical turbine pump sets with electric motors.

Transmission Pipelines

8. In selecting the proposed configuration of 175 wells and trans-mission pipelines as being the most economic arrangement for supplyingwater to Lahore for the next ten years the consultants studied by a com-puter network analysis program the two alternative schemes discussed belowdesigned to satisfy 1986 maximum day conditions. As there was very little ofthe existing system that could be utilized in the future distribution system,only significant pipelines were included in the computer analysis and therewas no verification of the existing system. The computer program would,therefore, have to be utilized in final design of the distribution system toverify the adequacy of pipelines, as they are designed and constructed.Due to the characteristics of the head-capacity curves for typical centrifu-gal well pumps, a maximum range of 40 to 50 feet in elevation of the systemhydraulic gradeline was selected. This range would be centered aroundthe maximum efficiency point when selecting well pumps. In addition tolimiting the variation in hydraulic gradeline to 40 to 50 feet, the pres-sure within the system is assumed by the consultants to be between 46 feetand 138 feet. 46 feet is the minimum pressure required to properly servicebuildings up to three floors. 138 feet the assumed maximum pressure wouldnormally be considered high for the Lahore water distribution system thoughthere will be fluctuations caused by the well pump characteristics anduncertainties concerning future drawdown. This will be reviewed after thepumping tests and during detailed designs.

(a) Scheme I - for maximum day conditions

This scheme proposed a system of 12 well centers, eachcontaining four wells, located to the north and east ofthe north Bund Road, having a transmission main rangingin size from 24 inch to 72 inch diameter, which dischargedto a 10 U.S. million gallon (8.3 IMg) capacity groundstorage reservoir. From this reservoir, the water wouldbe pumped to the distribution system. In addition, twowell centers of six wells each were proposed, one alongthe west Bund Road, west of the Old City, and one north-west of Shad Bagh, near the north Bund Road. One otherwell center of three wells was proposed near the eastBund Road. The remaining 112 wells were located through-out the project area, and pumped directly into thesystem. This scheme required a total of 918,900 feetof pipe ranging in size from 8-inch to 72-inch diameter,along with the reservoir and pumping facility. Theestimated cost of this scheme is PRs 402 million. Ifwater was pumped continuously from the reservoir, thepower charges for this pumpi..g would amount to overPRs 7 million per year.

ANNEX 1Page 6

(b) Scheme II - for maximum day conditions

The scheme includes four well centers, the three near theBund Road, described in Scheme I, and a fourth, of sixwells, located at the north Bund Road, north of ShalimarGardens. The well center at the east Bund Road would beincreased to four weLls. The remaining 153 wells wouldbe located throughout the project area, and all wellswould pump directly to the system, thus eliminating theneed for a reservoir and pump system to meet maximum daydemands. A total of 690,100 feet of pipes, ranging indiameter from 8 inch to 60 inich, would be required. Theestimated cost of this selheme is PRs 361 million.

Based upon the lower cost of the distribution system, and the eliminationof the need for a costly reservoir and pump system to meet maximum day demand,Scheme II is preferable and planning has proceeded on this basis.

Peak-Hour Conditions

9. A computer analysis of Scheme II was performed to check the requiredpipe sizes to meet peak hour conditions in 1986. This analysis shows that tomeet peak hour conditions, the diameter of 37,000 feet of pipe would need tobe increased and that an additional 27,500 feet of parallel piping would berequired. The additional cost of piping is PRs 18,455,000 or 8.1 percentof the cost of the pipe required to meet maximum day conditions. Since itwould be more costly to install 37,000 feet of parallel pipe in the future,piping to satisfy peak hour conditions will be installed as the system isexpanded. Also, in order to meet peak hour demands, storage will be required.At present, there are 30 elevated storage tanks in the LITWW system locatedthroughout the project area having a total capacity of 2.57 million gallons.These tanks range in size froim 20,000 gallons, such as at Rehmanpura to a onemillion gallon tank at Lange Mandi, at the top of the hill in the Old City.Two ground storage reservoirs of 40 and 10 million (33.3 and 8.3 IMg) U.S.gallon capacity are proposed in future to satisfy peak hour conditions. Pumpsystems will be included at each reservoir, and during peak demand condi-tions, water will be pumped to the distribution system from these reservoirs.These two reservoirs, along with the existing storage facilities, would becapable of meeting peak hour conditions for periods of about four hours. How-ever, until more is known of the ground water hydrology and the availabilityof water and until such time as the distribution system is shown to be satis-factorily o- crated and maintained, storage for meeting peak hour conditionsshould not be provided as further wastage of water would result. It is expectedthat these storage facilities, as recommended above, would not be required untilnear the end of the planning period in 1986, and a careful study of conditionsshould be made before investing in a storage facility of this magnitude.

10. In the Immediate Works Program the Government proposed financingabout 3.2 miles of transmission mains for connecting the proposed new 12wells to the distribution systems. Details of the transmission pipelinesand main grid for the Phase II project to connect the 47 wells are given

ANNEX 1Page 7

below. All pipes of diameter 24 inches and below will be of AC and thoseabove 24 inches will be RCP pipe.

Pipe Dia. (ins.) 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 TotalWELL CENTERS L.ft. L.ft. L.ft. L.ft.

AC18 inches 3,000 3,000 2,000 8,00020 inches 2,000 2,000 1,000 5,000

RCP27 inches 2,000 3,500 6,000 11,500

MAIN GRID

AC12 inches 25,500 23,900 21,200 70,60016 " 3,000 - - 3,00018 " 16,000 23,000 5,800 44,80024 " 4,000 28,500 5,400 37,900

RCP27 inches 1,800 3,500 - 5,30030 i 4,000 - - 4,00036 " 3,500 - - 3,50042 " 6,500 12,000 - 18,50048 " 3,000 - - 3.000

TOTAL 74,300 99,400 41,400 215,100

f1. As discussed in paragraph 8 above the final diameters of the 40miles of pipelines for the well centers and main grid will be calculatedwith greater accuracy during the detailed design of the Phase II project.

Distribution Network

12. Some 150 miles of pipe ranging from 3 to 8 inches in diameterare included in the project to provide extensions in high demand areas, toreinforce existing networks and for the replacement of old leaky pipelines.The pipe will be laid in the following six specific locations and other un-specified locations which will be identified by leakage surveys.

ANNEX 1Page 8

Location -----Area in acres-----------

1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 Total

Multan Road - 750 750Shad Bagh 720 720Ravi Road 400 400Mian Mir _ 350 350Draghawala & Kumharpurna 130 180 310Shaddra 100 100 200Unspecified 50 150 100 300

Total 680 1,530 820 3,030

13. On the basis of studies made of actual lengths of pipeline laidin high, low and medium income localities the pipe requirements for thedistribution network are estimated at 260 feet per acre. This length isroughly distributed between three, four, six and eight inch diameter pipesin the following percentages - 3 inch, 27%; 4 inch, 39%; 6 inch, 23%;and 8 inch, 11 percent. During final engineering, detailed surveys anddesigns will be made to correctly size the pipes for the network. The pipeswill be laid only in streets which are not presently served or do not havean adequate water supply.

Detailed Designs

14. Consultants financed by the UNDP Project will provide about 18 manmonths of assistance on the design of the Phase II project both on watersupply and sewerage. WASA's design directorate will be trained in the correctdesign of high capacity tubewells and leak tight water distribution systemsand required design manuals will be produced. The training will also includethe design of sewage pumping stations and sewage treatment plants (see Annex 2)by specialist engineers. By the end of the project period WASA's technicalstandards in the design of water supply and sewerage facilities should beimproved.

15. WASA has created a new hydrology cell to make pumping tests andcollect data to develop long range programs for the management of urbanwater in Lahore and its vicinities. Consultants financed by UNDP will assistthe hydrology cell and train staff in the collection and analysis of bothground and surface water hydrological data. The Government's MeteorologicalDepartment will also assist WASA in the installation of rain gauges andflow recorders in storm channels and sewers, and in making infiltrationstudies. The cost of installing this equipment is estimated at PRs 102,720and is included in the project. It is expected that by the completion ofPhase II, future designs for tubewells, sewers and surface drains will bemade on more reliable data than are now available. The hydrology cellwill continue to collect and analyze the data on a permanent basis.

ANNEX 1Page 9

C. OPERATIONS

Unaccounted for Water

16. Upon the consultant's recommendations WASA proposes to establisha leakage detection and repair cell. A leakage survey specialist to beprovided with UNDP technical assistance will set up the leakage surveyprogram which will be implemented during the project, and staff will betrained with the assistance of a leakage survey and repair engineer to beprovided by ODM. The project provides for equipping the cell in FY1977to assist in preparing for leakage surveys and in making the subsequentrepairs. Replacement of corroded pipes and repair of major leaks wouldbe done by contractors while minor repair work will be done by the cell.Leak detection equipment tools and four pick-up trucks estimated to costPRs 470,800 are provided and a significant reduction in leakage is expectedby the end of the project period to meet project objectives. The cell willbe initially headed by the ODM engineer who will train and hand over tocounterpart engineers and assist them with the program. Because of thehigh levels of wastage and unaccounted for water, publicity equipment fora waste prevention campaign is provided in the project to complement thework of the leak detection and repair cell. Two motorcycles, a projectorand tape recorder are provided in the project. The estimated cost of theseitems is PRs 26,750. During the project period unaccounted for water isexpected to be reduced from the presently reported 63% to about 45%. Con-sidering the present shortage of trained staff to reduce leakage and thetime needed to educate the public on controlling wastage this is a real-istic target.

Planned Preventive Maintenance

17. Until the new wells in the project are commissioned, WASA willhave to make special efforts to maintain the existing plant to provide areasonable service to its consumers. WASA also proposes to implement aplanned preventive maintenance program with the assistance of specialistengineers to be provided by the ODM, who will obtain the assistance of theTraining Division of the National Water Council of the British Government.The project provides for pumps and motor spare parts estimated at PRs 585,000for water supply and similar equipment for sewerage estimated at PRs 366,000.Both the mechanical and electrical workshops are poorly equipped especiallyfor the repair of natural gas driven plant. The project provides for newworkshop tools at an estinated cost of PRs 626,000 to be used in the repairand maintenance of water supply, sewage and drainage pumping equipment. Someequipment for the meter repair workshop estimated at PRs 53,500 will also beprovided.

18. The Operations and 1MIaintenance (O&M) Directorate will be re-organized and initially headed by the O&M Engineer (to be provided by theODM) who will set up the planned preventive maintenance program, traincounterpart engineers and then assist them and evaluate the success of theassistance. Training in the repairs of pumps and motors will also be car-ried out by specialist engineers to be provided by ODM and the Training

ANNEX 1Page 10

Division of the National Water Council. The 0&M Directorate has inadequatetransport facilities for setting up an effective planned preventive main-tenance program covering the very large number of tubewell facilities andsewage pumping stations that will become its responsibility. The minimumrequirements will be, one truck for the workshop, one pick-up truck forthe meter repair sliop, three trucks for the stores and transport of main-tenance crews. In addition, five cars are needed for the five-man ODMmanagement team (see para 5.08 of the main report) comprising management,financing, operations, stores, and leak detection. The cars will be usedby WASA after the departure of the ODM team. These vehicles, with a totalestimated cost of PRs 583,150 are included in the project.

Water Production and Consumption

19. Meters are urgently required to be installed in all the tubewellsand WASA also requires spare parts for the existing meters. Some 7,400,1/2" size meters are needed for the selective metering of new consumers(3,300), installations in tubewells (100) and replacement of existing meters.These meters and spares for meters are provided in the project.

Control of System Pressures

20. With several tubewells pumping into the system against the con-tinuous hourly fluctuations of demand a central control station is requiredin the O&M Directorate headquarters to regulate the numbers of wells to beturned on or off and avoid irreversible damage to the tubewell gravel packs.With the completion of new high capacity well centers this need is evengreater. Radio communication with the well centers and other importantoperational centers has been provided in the project at a total cost ofPRs 55,640.

Surveillance of Water Quality

21. WASA has made arrangements with the Ministry of Health for thesurveillance of water quality as recommended in the WHO International Stand-ards. This surveillance will be carried out independently by the Instituteof lhygiene and Preventive Medicine (IPM) in Lahore. WASA will providetransportation and make budgetary provision to reimburse IHPM for theirservices. In order to provide a safe water supply WASA will have to installmore chlorinators, repair those 1hat are not working and chlorinate allthrough the year instead of only during the monsoon months as now practiced.At the end of the Phase II project it is estimated that 82 tubewells will bein operation. Thirty-six chlorinators are now installed but most of theseneed spare parts and repairs. The cost of these and the additional 46chlorinators, including installation, is estimated at PRs 282,500 and isincluded in the project. Additional equipment for WASA's laboratory is alsoneeded, estimated to cost PRs 89,000 and is included in the project.

ANNEX 1Page 11

Offices, Housing and Training Facilities

22. Two offices for Senior Operations and Maintenance Engineers arerequired in two new O&M areas. Smaller offices for Junior Operations andMaintenance Engineers are required in ten sub-areas. At the present timetemporary office accommodation which is inadequate in most cases is pro-vided in old LMC buildings or under overhead reservoirs. These newoffices are included in the project at an estimated cost of PRs 1,359,000.Accounting machines required for the existing offices are included in theproject cost. Several key staff such as fitters, drivers, mechanics andshift workers are not provided with housing and therefore cannot be readilycontacted for emergencies. Land is available at most of the pump sites andstorage yards for both water supply and sewerage. The required housingis of the usual government standards which is based upon the pay scales andis included in the project at an estimated cost of PRs 4,783,000. Seniorstaff in WASA unlike their counterparts in similar government service arenot provided with housing. WASA has the option of building five housesfor senior staff under the project. These houses will be used to firsthouse ODM staff during the project period under the terms of the ColomboPlan Agreement. It is more economical for WASA to build this housing thanrent accommodations at the current rates of PRs 3,000 per month for a house.The amount of PRs 720,000 included in the project for renting housing maybe utilized for building this housing and would thus become eligible forpartial credit disbursement.

23. The ODM Management team, WASA engineers and manufacturers, willprovide training for WASA staff. Because of the current brain drain to theMiddle East there is a high turnover of staff and facilities for the con-tinuous orientation, and classroom training of new and old staff membersare included in the project for about 20 staff members at a time. Thefacilities will provide for the trainees to be resident during the periodof training. The estimated cost of the facilities which include offices,canteen, workshop and dormitory including furniture, is PRs 321,000 and isincluded in the project.

D. CONSTRUCTION

24. The cost estimates are based upon cost curves for pipelines pre-pared by WASA for the consultants and quotations obtained from drillingcontractors, pipe suppliers and manufacturers in Lahore, Islamabad andKarachi. The estimates have been verified by comparison with on-going orrecently completed water supply and sewerage works in Lahore. The pricesof imported equipment not generally used in the past were provided by theconsultants. The prices are calculated exclusive of customs duty forimported components, with duty added on to the total. WASA will revise thesecost estimates on the completion of detailed designs. The foreign and localcomponents ok locally manufactured items with a significant proportion of

ANNEX 1Page 12

imported materials are calculated from information given by the manufacturersand include both the direct and indirect foreign costs of the materials andmanufacturing equipment used in mnaking them. Buildings have been estimatedas having a total local cost because all building supplies are manufacturedin Pakistan (some items are exported) and the indirect foreign component isnegligible.

25. The January 1976 base line estimated costs of the water supply com-ponent of the project for a 3-year construction program are shown on page 31of this Annex.

26. As the preliminary engineering studies have been based upon plan-ning criteria and not on detailed surveys and designs, the consultants haverecommended that a 20% provision is made for physical contingencies both forthe water supply and for the sewerage and drainage components of the project.WASA feels that this provision is reasonable, especially because some itemsin the project such as the use of RCP pipe and tubewells of special designare new in their experience. Any savings in this item will be utilized toextend the network. There is only one pipe factory in Pakistan whichmanufactures AC pipe. Because of this lack of competition, prices tend tobe high, though competitive with other locally available or imported pipematerials. It is expected that both AC and RCP pipe which comprise the bulkof the project will escalate at the same rate as projected on the basis ofinternational trade.

27. Most of the items in the project are manufactured in Pakistan.Important exceptions are stainless steel screens, well casings, submersiblepumps, sewage pumps and vehicles. All major procurement and civil workscontracts except on surface drainage works, rehabilitation of pipelinesand house connections would be by international competitive bidding, inaccordance with the latest Bank/IDA "rGuidelines for Procurement." A marginof preference up to 15% or customs duty, whichever is lower, will be grantedto local manufacturers. No preference is proposed or requested for civilworks contractors. No interest was shown by foreign civil works contrac-tors in the Phase I project, and the situation is expected to be the samein the Phase II project. Assistance to the civil works construction contract-ing industry is proposed by the import of a drilling rig, heavy duty tractor,crane and excavating machinery so that the proposed construction programcan be completed on schedule. Provision will be made in the respective biddocuments for the prepayment of these items and recovery from the bidder.The use of machinery is justified in the laying of large diameter sewerpipelines because labor intensive methods are slow and dangerous and thequality of work, especially in making pipe joints, is sometimes belowstandard. Often pipes are visibly damaged because of mishandling. Thedrilling rig is needed because pump housings may have to be provided downto depths of over 300 feet and local drilling contractors are unable toobtain the needed equipment themselves. Similar assistance is proposed forthe supply of high tensile wire and steel plate in the manufacture of largediameter RCP Pipe. WASA has scheduled the proposed contract numbers forthe water supply sewerage and drainage project construction components. Fol-lowing final design they will be grouped together in such a manner as to beattractive for International Competitive Bidding.

ANNEX 1Page 13

28. WASA's Managing Director assisted by the Deputy Managing Director,Operations and Deputy Managing Director, Engineering will be responsiblefor carrying out both the Water Supply and the Sewerage and Drainage partsof the project. It is expected that LITWW's Project Director who was theDirector of Construction of the Phase I project will be appointed the Man-aging Director. The Deputy Managing Director, Operations will be the Proj-ect Coordinator and ensure attainment of all the project objectives, espe-cially in the matter of achieving the important technical and financialstandards needed for proceeding with Phase III of the new Master Plan with-out further expatriate technical assistance. The Deputy Managing Director(Design and Construction) will be responsible for project construction.

29. The Design and Construction Directorates will require strength-ening, as in recent years they have been working at about one-third thecapacity that will be needed for the Phase II project. In the categoryof Senior technical staff five Deputy Directors and ten Additional DeputyDirectors are needed. Temporarily five surveyors, four draftsmen, supportingclerical staff and a large number of other staff need to be recruited. Thougha number of such qualified men are leaving the country, the Project Directorgave assurances that competent engineers can be recruited from withinPakistan and expatriate engineers would not be required.

30. The acquisition of land for the construction of tubewells andpumphouses is not expected to be difficult though special attention isneeded to complete early acquisition and prevent encroachments which may bedifficult to remove. The maximum time needed for acquisition is about sixmonths. As most of the pipelines will be laid in existing roads, no dif-ficulties are anticipated in obtaining wayleaves. No other special con-struction problems are expected and with the 12 man-months of assistanceby consultants to be provided under the UNDP Project, it is expected that theproposed three-year construction program will be implemented on schedule.About 10% of the project costs are expected to be disbursed in the fourthyear, in the payment of retention monies during the maintenance period andcompletion of minor works in leakage repairs and house connections.

31. In order to expedite the work on house connections, the Construc-tion Directorate and Finance Directorate, through the Operations Directorate,will commence work on providing the necessary fittings and make the houseconnections immediately following the testing of the pipelines. The DeputyManaging Director, Operations will coordinate this important activity andensure that the target number of connections both on water supply andsewerage is achieved.

Consultants

32. There is provision for advisory services by engineering consult-ants in the project for detail design, specialist studies and construction

ANNEX 1Page 14

supervision of approximately 50 man months financed by the UNDP. There isalso provision for a management team in the project on engineering manage-ment, finance, leak detection, operation and maintenance of water and sewersystems and training totalling approximately 15 man years financed by ODM.Neither of these provide for ccontingencies either of foreign or local costsand the ODM assistance does not' provide for housing and transport facilities.Provision for the purchase of air conditioners and vehicle running costsestimated at PRs 3,200,000 are provided under consultants services in theproject, as follows:

PRs

20% Contingencies on UNDP Project 1,000,00020% " " ODM team 1,800,000Air conditioning - 10 units 100,000Running Costs for vehicles 300,000

3,200,000

E. TRAINING

33. The principal training objective of the project is for WASA toachieve internal competency for implementing the revised Master Plan andprovide Lahore with a safe water supply. For meeting this objective thefollowing subsidiary objectives are proposed by the Managing Director designeefor WASA:

(i) WASA will follow personnel policies that will be noless attractive than those of other public utilityauthorities (like WAPDA) in attracting and keepingqualified staff capable of benefitting from training.

(ii) A continuous training program will be developed andimplemented to sustain the levels of competence needed.

(iii) An annual evaluation report on the training program willbe prepared with each training budget by the DeputyManaging Director (Operations).

34. Except for a few WASA engineers and some accountants who benefit-ted from training on the job by working with consultants in revising theMaster Plan, most of the more senior positions are held by seconded engi-neers trained by PhED who have Little interest in WASA. Most of the juniorpositions are held by untrained staff. This came about because serviceconditions and benefits in WASA are worse than those of PHED or other publicutility authorities like WAPDA. With the upgrading of the Managing Direc-tor's post it is expected that there will be a general improvement in per-sonnel policies and better qualified and trainable staff will be attracted to

ANNEX 1Page 15

WASA. The seconded engineers can then return to the PHED which is unableto cope with its own workload and only releases them to WASA at presentwith some reluctance, often withdrawing them at short notice.

Present Position

35. The numbers of staff requiring training are shown below:

19791975 1976 To be Fully

Trained Trained TrainedNos. Nos. Nos. Percent Nos.

Unskilled 340 - - 0 0Semi-skilled 688 - - 10 69Skilled 1,069 - n.a. 20 214Technical

Supervisors 147 - n.a. 100 147Financial and

Clerical 296 1 3 100 296Engineers 23 1 3 100 23

Total Staff,Aug. 1975 2,563 2 6 30 749

36. The Assistant Director (Personnel and Training) is normally re-sponsible for train;ing but does not have a well thought out comprehensiveprogram. Some meager ad hoc efforts, were:

1) A Senior Engineer was trained for three months at theInstitute of Public Administration.

2) For about one year in 1973/74, newly recruited tubewelldrivers were given instruction.

3) A contract was made with the Labor Department fortraining electricians, mechanics and other tradesmenbut was not implemented for lack of funds, space andinstructors.

Training Programs

37. The Directorates of Finance, Planning, Design, Construction andOperations have prepared outline training programs for training staff in theirrespective Directorates. These programs would be incorporated into an overallprogram for WASA.

ANNEX 1Page 16

Training Methods

38. Four methods are proposed:

1) Overseas training2) Institutional training in Pakistan3) On-the-job training4) Classroom training

39. Overseas training is expected to be limited to specialized areasin public utility operations which are not available in Pakistan. Six UNDPfellowships each of six months duration and two study tours of one monthduration are provided in the areas of finance, administrative management,engineering operations, construction engineering and preventive maintenance.The Government is expected to provide overseas training through bi-lateralassistance for advanced studies in groundwater hydrology and public healthengineering.

40. Institutional training in Lahore is expected to be mainly in theform of assistance to junior accounting and engineering staff to obtainhigher qualifications. The assistance will be in time-off for followingevening classes or for financial assistance with correspondence courses.Short-term and long-term refresher courses in the Engineering Universityand the Institute of Public Administration can be arranged and the needswill be identified during the project period.

41. On-the-job training has proved to be fairly successful when train-able WASA counterpart staff were given an opportunity to work with consult-ants on the review of the Master Plan. Very great emphasis will be placedon this training method during the Phase II project. The following cate-gories of counterpart staff will be appointed by WASA to work with the engi-neering and management consultants.

(a) Senior counterpart staff to receive on-the-iob training fromengineering consultants

Hydrologists - 2Tubewell construction specialists - 2Detailed/Design Supervision of Construction Engineers - 15Specialist Engineers, Leak Detection - 4Deputy Managing Directors (Design and Construction) - 2

(b) Senior counterpart staff to receive on-the-job training fromODM Management team

Management Director - 1Deputy Managing Director (Operations) - 1Deputy Managing Director (Finance and Administration) - 1Directors, Operation and Finance - 4Specialist Engineers, Leak Detection - 4Procurement and Stores Officers - 2

ANNEX 1Page 17

42. These counterpart staff will in turn provide on-the-job trainingto the junior technical staff which will be supplemented by continuing classroom and field training where necessary. Classroom facilities withbed and board for training 20 residential staff at a time, are provided inthe project on the assumption that each officer requires an average of twoweeks classroom training in each year for three years to make him reasonablycompetent. About 400 officers representing most of WASA's junior opera-tional staff can be given classroom training. The content of the trainingis to be based upon the advice of the engineering consultants, and the ODMteam assisted by the National Water Council. All senior WASA staff will beobliged to give classroom training as part of their normal professionalduties as would the ODM management team aided by other competent outsidelecturers as may be needed. The classroom facilities are to be completedby the end of 1976.

Training Management and Budget

43. Training management is the responsibility of the Deputy ManagingDirector (Operations) (DMDO) assisted by the Director (Personnel and Train-ing). DMDO will prepare the detailed training program in consultation withthe engineering consultants, the ODM management team and the advice of theNational Water Council of the UK and following IDA approval, prepare thetraining budget, obtain required approval for training expenditures and arrangefor the recruitment and planned release of qualified staff to undertake thetraining. Personnel management policies are to be so made that adequateincentives are given to trained and competent staff. Incompetent or untrain-able staff with tenure are to be found suitable employment in other Govern-ment Departments or premzturely retired. The Trade Union will be involvedin the staff development programs and the employment of seconded engineersis to be discontinued by 1979.

Training Evaluation

44. Training is to be continuous until such time as only competentstaff remain with WASA and the current brain drain becomes less. The DMDOwill prepare a comprehensive report on the achievements of each year'straining effort for review by WASA and IDA and an assessment will be made bythe Managing Director of progress in WASA's capability for operating andmaintaining the Phase II project and for planning, designing and constructinga Phase III project. Any minor shortcomings will be rectified by WASA asthey occur and major shortcomings involving budget increases will be rectifiedin the following year. A quantitative assessment will be made at the endof the project period based upon the value of the training program in increasedstaff performance e.g., number of tubewell pump failures, implementationof preventive maintenance, reduction of leaks etc.

PAKISTAN

SECOND LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SELWERAGE AND

DRAINAGE PROJECT

Project Implementation ScheduleList of Key Indicators for Monitoring

Project Implementation

45. Project Tmplementation Schedule

Implementation

Action By Date

A. Between Negotiations and Board Presentation

(i) Institutional

(a) Creation and filling of two posts of Deputy Managing Sec LG/DG July 30, 76Directors Finance and Operations

(b) Preparation of organization chart for posts below MD July 31, 76director level and creation of new posts with jobdiscriptions

(c) Filling of all new posts on accounting, billing and MDcollection, hydrology and leakage

(d) Commencement of detailed assessment of training needs, MDpreparation of training program and selection offelowships

(ii) Preliminary Financial

(e) Written approval of project costs of PRs 458 million Sec LG Apr.15,76and confirmation that budgetary provision has beenmade for goverments share of financing

(f) Audited financial statements for FE 1975 MD Apr.15,76

Implementation

Action By Date

(g) New billing systems. introduced MD May 01, 76

(h) Audit of billing records introduced MD Jul.31, 76

(i) Connection survey of 10% of town MD May 01, 76

(iii) r'oject Mobilization

(j) Land acquisition program -see timetable (Page 28) MD ---

(k) Agree reporting procedures IDA/WASA Jul.Ol, 76

(iv) Project Design

(1) Design and bid documents - see construction schedule MD ---for details

B. Following Board Presentation

(i) Preliminary Financial

(a) Subsidiary loan agreement approved IDA/GOP Jun.30, 76

(ii) Project Mobilization

(b) Office accommodation, counterpart staff and other PP/WASA Jul.01,, 76inputs for ODM team

(c) Commence consumer sampling program MD Jul.01, 76

(d) Billing for quarter to December 1975 MD Jun.30,76

(e) Prepare ccnnection survey program NM) Jun.30,76 CD

Hi

Implementation

Action By Date

(f) Prepare billing record and account balancecorrection program MD Jun.30,76

(iii) Operations

(g) Meter all 4 cfs tubewells MD Dec.31, 76

C. FY 1977 to 1980

(i) Project Mobilization

(a) Agreement with universities on environmental mn Jul1.01,76studies

(ii) Project Procurement and Construction

(b) See Construction schedule for details (Annex 5) MD ---

(iii) Training

(c) See Timetable for details (Page 29) MD ---

(iv) FinancialYearly

(d) Preparation of budget for LDA Board MD Dec.31

(e) Approval of budget by LDA Board MD Jun.15

(f) Approval of budget by PP MD Jun.30

(g) Send budget to IDA with tariff proposals to MD Jul.31meet rate of return covenant mtd

(h) Appointment of auditors MD Jun.30 o

(i) Audited financial statements MD Dec.31

I-mplementation

Action ay Date

(j) Complete connection survey MD Jun.78

(v) Operations

(k) Establish benchmarks for subsidence MD Dec.76

(1) Complete leakage survey Area No.1 MD Dec.76

(m) Complete leakage survey Area No.2 MD Jun.77

(n) Complete leakage survey Area No.3 MD Dec.77

(o) Complete leakage survey Area No.4 MD Jun.78

(p) Prepare planned preventive maintenance program MD Sep.76

(q) Implement planned preventive maintenance program - MD Dec.76tubewells

(r) Implement planned preventive maintenance program - MD Mar.77water distribution system

(s) Implement planned preventive maintenance program - MD Jun.77sewerage network

(t) Implement planned preventive maintenance program - ND Sep.77pumping stations

(u) Reduce leakage to not more than 20% MD Jun.79

(vi), Preparation of manuals

(a) Leak detection and repair MD Dec.76 m mMIn

(b) Water supply and sewerage design and specification ND Jun.77

Implement ati on

Action B Date

(c) Bid procedure and construction - Part I MD Jun.77

(d) Bid procedure and construction.- Part II MD Jun.78

(e) Groundwater studies guidelines MD Dec.77

(f) Sewerage treatment design MD Dec.77

(g) Environmental study MD Dec.77

(h) Tubewell design and construction MD Dec.76

(i) Data collection - SW hydrology - design MD Dec.77

I~ ~~~~~~~~~t I

r'o

ANNEX 1Page 23

Management Objectives

46. The following principal project objectives are proposed by WASA.

I. PRINCIPAL PROJECT OBJECTIVES FOR WASA MANAGEIENT.

Objective Action by Schedule Ref.

1. Billing & Collection and Account- Financial UNDP Project"Cf"

ing systems to be implemented and Management and ODM Colombo

staff to be trained by national Plan applications

accounting firm and ODM team toreduce net accounts receivableto lOO% of annual billings and theaccounting systems to be fullyoperative by the close of accountsfor FY1977.

2. Leakage and wastage to be Operational UNDP Project

steadily reduced with advice of Management. and ODM Colombo Plan

Engineering Consultants and ODM applicationsteam to 46% by 1980 to conservethe depleting groundwater reserves.

3. Financial management to be im- Financial ODM, Colombo

proved with advice of ODM team Management. Plan application

and competency increased duringthe Phase II Project.

4. Engineering Management to be Engineering ODM, Colombo

improved with advice of ODM Management Plan applicatiorteam and competency increasedduring the Phase II Project.

5. Design manuals prepared during Design UNDP Project I"C"J

the Phase II Project by Management applicatimn

consultants.

6. Construction manuals prepared Construction UNDP Project 'IC"

during the Phase II Projects Management applicationby consultants.

Key Indicators of Management Performance

47. The following key indicators of management performance are pro-posed for measuring the achievement of the principal project objectives.

Annual, quarterly or monthly targets would be agreed by IDA with WASA manage-

ment against 1975 actuals or estimated actuals. The concerned departments

and divisions in WASA will set up detailed implementation schedules and

monitor performance monthly to achieve the annual targets.

B. KEY INDIG.TORS

Year to June 30, X9Th 1976 1977 1978 1979 80

General Management

1. Seconded engineers in key posts (nos.) 3 2 2 1 1 0

2. Key positions vacant (nos.) 1 2 - - - -

3. Staff (nos.) 2563 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500

Financial Management

1. Accounts receivable and billings (PRs in millions)

(a) Accounts receivable - total (net) 21.5 28.6 33.5 35.2 34.7 29.6

(b) Current billings - total 18.2 23.8 33.3 46.4 67.7 79.0

(c) Total billings 38.0 51.7 70.7 93.5 125.6 151.0

(d) Cash received for arrears () -23 26 32 36 4o 4o

(e) Cash received for current billings (%) 30 30 35 ho 5o 60

(f) Total Cash 10.1 14.3 23.6 35.6 53.6 80.1

(g) Collection ratio (%) 27 23 33 38 43 53

2. Audit reports delay (months) 10 2 1 - - -

3. Monthly reports to MD delay (months) 3 4 -

4. Quarterly Reports to MD delay (months) 4 6 - - -

5. (a) Rate of return on net fixed assets (% unrevalued) 2 6 6 6 4 4

(b) Rate of return on net fixed assets (% revalued) - - - 4 4 4

Year to June 30, 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

6. Debt services covered - times - 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25

7. Debt Equity Ratio 5.1 5.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.9

Operational Management

1. Metered wells (%) NIL 50 100 100 100 100

2. Water production (Billion IMg per year) 24 29 30 34 39 40

3. Water leakage (%) 33 31 28 27 26 23

4. Water unaccounted (%) 30 29 27 26 25 23

5. Tubewell pump breakdowns (nos. per month) 15 14 10 5 2 1

6. Tubewell failures (nos. per month) 3 18 12 12 10 5

7. Sewage pump breakdowns (nos. per month) 5 4 3 2 1 0

8. Average well Life (years) 10 12 14 16 18 20

Planning and Design Management

1. Projected population in WASA service area (millions) 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9

2. Households total in service area (thousands) 277 282 294 307 320 334

3. Households in service area with water supply (thousands) 152 161 171 182 199 217

4. Households in service area with sewer (thousands) NA NA NA NA NA NA /

5. Population served with water (millions) 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2

To be verified by WASA

Year to June 30, 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

S. Population served with sewer (millions) NA NA NA NA NA NA

7. No. of water connections (thousands)(a) metered 9 10 11 13 15 16

(b) unmetered 108 120 130 155 180 220

3. Population served by private water systems (%) 9 10 11 12 1]. 10

?. Population not served by public or private systems (%)(a) water 23 20 17 14 13 12

(b) sewer NA NA NA NA NA NA

LO. No. of sewer connections:(a )Direct metered NA NA NA NA NA NA 1/

(b) Direct unmetered NA NA NA NA NA NA j

(c) Indirect NA NA NA NA NA NA /Acreage served with: (thousands)(a) Primary drains 25 28 31 34 37 39

(b) Secondary drains 12 12 14 14 16 17

(c) Tertiary drains NA NA NA NA NA NA /Jonstruction Management

Ll. Main pipelines over 12 inches (miles) 40 4o 54 70 82 83

L2. Distribution Pipelines (miles) 471 471 520 570 620 621

L3. Main Sewera (miles) NA NA NA NA NA NA /

L4. Collector Sewers (miles) NA NA NA NA NA NA L

To be verified by WASA

Year to June 30, 1975 i976 1977 1978 -197° 1980

15. Tubewells - 4 cfs 49 61 73 96 108 123

16. Tubewells - 2 cfs 56 38 24 12 12 0

17. Design and construction manuals (nos.) NIL 1 3 9 9 9

CD1r 3

ANNEX 1Page 28

TIME TABLE FOR LAND ACQUISITION

Possession of sitesYear Sites to be acquired not later than

FY 1976 Tubewells and pumping stations;17 sites June 1976

Transmission pipelines I

Multan Road sewage "pumping station site

FY 1977 Tubewells and pumping stations;30 sites June 1977

Distribution network;50% of requirement January 1977

Nawankot and Shadharasewage pumping station sites June 1977

FY 1977 Trunk sewers, sullagecarriers and outfalls June 1977

o 5Collection network;502 of requirement "

Secondary drains;

50% of requirement "

FY 1978 Waste Stabilization Pond December 1977

Distribution network50% of requirement June 1978

Collection network50% of requirement "

Secondary drains50% of requirement

PAKISTAN

IAHORE WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Timetable for Training

-------------- Project Period -------------Calendar Year 197 177 1978 1979 1980

Training Consultant

Assessment of Training Needs(assumes job classification in effect)

Preparation of Detailed Training Programs

Construction of Classroom

Conduct of Training (Implementation) ** ****inc .uding devel pmentof xistir g sta f)

Training of Additional or Replacement Trainers(assumes initial group of trainers available)

Evaluation of Program U * *

(D (

"OHJ

ANNEX 1Page 30

Management Audit

48. The LDA has a powerful board with a capacity for making decisionsand getting things done. However, it is a new body and its performance inmanaging the water supply, sewerage and drainage services on public utilitylines will require to be monitored during the project period and evaluatedat the end of the project by a management audit. The following three keyindicators are proposed for monitoring LDA's performance (1) completion ofthe Phase II project on schedule (2) achievement of a satisfactory level ofinternal cash generation by WASA and (3) achievement by WASA of internalcapability for continuing work on the master plan. The management auditshould be a critical appraisal and review going beyond the everyday dataof management accounting into an overall examination of the executive pro-cess in action. It should cover the extent and effectiveness of the patternof delegation, the channels of communication, the harmony of coordination,the adequacy or otherwise of tools of planning and control, the skill inthe usage of management data as a guide to remedial decision, and, ingeneral, the competence of LDA's executive, supervisory and specialistteams dealing with WASA.

ANNEX 1Page 31

PAKISTANAppraisal of the Iabore Wter Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Project - Phase II

Water Supply ConstructionCost Estimates

Local Costs ----------- ------------ Foreign Costs ----------- 'otalTt&I Year to June 3n 1977 1978 1979 1980 -ubtotal 1977 1978 1979 1 Subtotal o

Civil :Jor's .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PRs 103..tells 267 1,448 1,798 618 4,131 541 837 448 155 1,981 6,112

ipmjhousees 296 1,060 1,125 361 2,842 38 104 97 31 270 3,112t.Ln Grid 3,888 8,695 5,851 1,045 19,479 1,593 3,553 2,380 419 7,945 27,424

Aistribution ;-etirorI- 804 3,463 4,053 1,354 9,714 536 864 501 173 2,074 11,788perational DLildings 3 2 3 2 6 463 6,463iotal Civil Works 77 5 17- 1 t¶ 7,47 42;62 775 8 5,357 0 3, 4 2 77 8 12,270 -1E,2979

:-gain ent.Tells 1,212 3,426 3,372 1,158 9,168 9,168- nnhacses 14 5o 59 23 146 1,454 4,781 4,932 1,603 12,770 12,916ain Grid 3,484 6,629 3,966 821 14,900 703 2,913 2,815 605 7,036 21,936

Distribution :etuor4k 464 1,500 1,579 543 4,086 429 1,384 1,457 502 3,772 7,858e Id ~ rts 688 688 1,376 1,376'trdrological 2quiprent 27 26 53 529 529 1,058 1,111,eters 26 27 53 1,177 1,177 2,354 2,407Vehicles 37 33 75 285 285 570 645cifA'ce I_achin_ 214 214 428 428Total Equipment 7-e ! 7 '57 767r 1,357 19,313 3,798 15,397 1 3,868 3 2 7,8

0otal Civil Tor':s and7uipnent 9,217 26,166 21,754 1,805 61,942 6,506 20,755 18,895 4,646 50,802 112,744

)uties and Taxes.eIl ,creens and clreS 2,3814 6,874 6,798 2,308 18,364 18,464-'ther Tiported t tems 3 2) 3 245 6 489 6 149

lotal Duties And Taxes 1 A, 2,303 t248

Consultants 288 289 577 525 525 1,050 1,627

Subtotal 11,889 36,573 31,797 7,113 87,372 7,031 21,280 18,895 4,646 51,852 139,224Land 270 572 459 157 1,458 1,458

-Dsicrl ; 2,378 7,333 6,341 1,422 17,474 1,406 4,256 3,779 929 10,370 27,5144Price 1 744 10,697 13 873 4 259 30 573 1,012 6,129 8 163 2 730 18 034 48 607Total Contingencies 4,612 1 80,3 1 1 , 94 28,418 7 0,351

Administration 823 1,899 2,153 2,450 7,325 7,325

MFlIDP ianced Consultants 1,693 747 352 2,792 2,792

GRULNDl TOTAL 17,1014 57,0714 9623 12 ,0 l144,202 11,142 32,W 31,189 8,305 8 227.250

A/ rTzsicel contin-ercies are 205 t)f all costs encept land.

HIarch 1976

ANNEX 2Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Description of the Project - Sewerage and Drainage

A. INTRODUCTION

1. The primary objectives of the sewerage and drainage componentsof the project form part of the overall Phase II project objectives de-scribed in para 3.03 of the main report. The existing facilities - sewerageand drainage are described in Annex 7. The consultants have prepared arevised Master Plan for a ten-year period ending 1986 and have recommendeda three year investment program for sewerage which WASA has decided to al-most fully implement because of the prevalent insanitary conditions in thepoorer areas of the city. The consultants' proposals on drainage in therecommended program has however been substantially reduced due to thefinancial constraints.

2. The physical components of the project are:

(i) Trunk Sewers. Some 17 miles of trunk sewers of 21 inchesup to 78 inches will be laid.

(ii) Collectors Sewers. Some 285 miles of collectors sewersare to be laid in sizes from 9 inches up to 18 inches.

(iii) Pumping Stations. Four new pumping stations will beerected. These will include Shad Bagh with 40 cfsinitially, Nawankot with 90 cfs initially, Multan Roadwith 50 cfs initially, and Shahdara with 25 cfsinitially. The capacity of the Main Outfall pumpingstation with be increased by replacing 5 pumps with an80 cfs capacity by 3 pumps with a 90 cfs capacity.

(iv) Sewage Treatment. A prototype sewage stabilization pondis proposed to treat sewage from Shad Bagh on 75 acres ofland, including an environmental study of the Ravi Riverand the use of sewage effluent for crop irrigation.

(v) Vehicles, Equipment, Housing, Offices and Training Facilities.Four motorcycles, two cars, one truck and half the cost ofthe workshop truck are included for project supervision andoperations. Spare parts and tools for a planned preventivemaintenance program have been included along with half the

ANNEX 2PAge 2

cost of the radio communication and accounting equipment.Half of the cost of offices, housing and training facilitiesis also included.

(vi) Drainage. Work on primary channels is presently inprogress as part of the immediate works program. Theproject includes 21 miles of new and rehabilitatedsecondary drainage channels.

B. DESIGN

House Connections

3. WASA has no policy on sewer house connections. The project in-cludes an investigation of making low cost sewer house connections andconnections for collecting sullage water as part of the works in the second-ary sewerage network especially in the poorer neighborhoods where highdensity housing will make it feasible for one connection to serve more thanone property. The present practice is to use six inches diameter concretepipes per house sewer connection because material other than sanitary sew-age put into the sewers is thought to be the cause of frequent blockages.The feasibility of using less costly four inches diameter sewer pipes perhouse connections will also be studied. The average cost of a single houseconnection is now estimated by the consultant to be PRs 1,765 and the inves-tigation will seek less costly alternatives for the Phase II project.

Design Flows

4. Based upon the preliminary design criteria, (discussed in Annex 8,page 16) sanitary flows have been calculated at various points throughouteach sewerage district, in order to tentatively size trunk sewers, pumpingstations and waste disposal facilities.

Design Velocities

5. The consultants have recommended that minimum velocities in thesewers flowing full or half full should be 2-1/2 feet per second which maybe lowered to 2 feet per second if fall is not economically available providedadequate maintenance arrangements we made. For the larger sewers, whereverfall is available they consider that overall economies may be possible withhigher velocities and reduction in sewer diameters if the discounted operatingcosts of sewage pumping are included, though pumping stations will be deeper.This will be studied further during detailed design for some of the majortrunk sewers and pumping stations in the project.

ANNEX 2Page 3

Design of Sewer Layout

6. Sewers already constructed are substantially as recommended inthe 1969 Master Plan. This is basically a radial pattern of independentsystems and the consultants recommended the continuation of this conceptbecause: (a) proposed future treatment is in lagoons, which have a negli-gible economy of scale, (b) the natural fall is from the scarp in the northeast towards the river and (c) to combine the several drainage areas wouldrequire a large and deep intercepting sewer and a very large pumping station,with high capital and operating costs.

7. The existing general pattern of sewers has been maintained in thepreliminary design. The main trunk sewers have been left to follow thenatural drainage, where this drainage is apparent, and to discharge on theperiphery of the city into the Ravi River on the north and west. With thetype of sewage treatment planned there is no significant saving in cost ofconstruction or operation of one large treatment works in place of severalwith a combined capacity equal to the larger one. There are advantages inhaving sewers discharging at points where, following treatment, the effluentcan be used for irrigation or ground water recharge if found feasible.

8. In those areas in which street patterns and trunk sewers existthe proposed sewers are to be laid as parallel sewers. In areas where thereare no sewers, it is proposed to follow existing streets, and where nostreets are presently existing or planned, assumptions as to a future sewerpattern have been made. During the final design of the sewers, the layoutpattern may be changed to satisfy new street patterns, or to overcome prob-lems which may be encountered in the field. In the Northeast SewerageDistrict three alternatives which involved the layout and sizing of theoutfall sewer and the location of the pumping station were studied in se-lecting the alternative with the least cost recommended in the revisedMaster Plan. The existing layout and proposed sewers for the Phase II proj-ect are shown in IBRD Map 11214. Trunk sewers varying in diameter between78 inches and 21 inches are proposed to be laid as follows. The base linecost estimate is calculated for January 1976.

Trunk Sewers Year to June 30 Base lineTotal 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 estimate

Sewerage District ------- Lengths in feet-------- PRs Millions

South Civil Lines 11,500 - 4,500 7,000 11.60

South West 57,900 8,800 24,900 24,200 16.86

Shahdara 16,800 - 11,200 5,600 6.90

TOTAL 86,200 8,800 40,600 36,800 35.36

ANNEX 2Page 4

9. Collector sewers are proposed for construction in the (1) Northern,(2) Central, (3) South Civil Lines, (4) South West, and (5) Shadara seweragedistricts mostly in areas of poor sanitation and where minor flooding presentsa health hazard. The localities are generally (1) Ramgarh, Moghulpura, ShadBagh and Waranpura (2) MIartafa Abad area (3) Fata Sher Road, Rasool Park,Bagh Gul Begum, Nanoun Kul and Pakki Thatthi (4) 1600 Acres Scheme, Rawan,Multan Road and some areas of Ichara and (5) Shadara town. These locali-ties will be identified in greater accuracy during detailed design. Thediameters of the sewers vary from 18 inches to 9 inches and the lengthsto be laid are approximately as follows:

Collector Sewers Year to June 30 Base lineTotal 1977 1978 1979 estimate

District ---------Thousand feet--------- PRs Millions

liorthern 370 - 370 - 13.9Central 50 - 50 - 1.9South Civil Lines 149 149 - - 5.6

Southwest 565 - 226 339 21.2

Shahdara 293 - 227 66 11.0

TOTAL 1,427 149 873 405 53.6

The lengths of pipes to be laid were calculated after surveysof typical areas in varying income groups and an assumption that abouthalf the streets in each locality would be provided with sewers in thisproject. This matter requires further study during detailed design inorder to maximize the number of house connections in the project.

Pumping Stations

It is proposed that, in each of the sewerage districts, thesewage will be conveyed in the trunk sewers to a pumping station where thesewage will be pumped to the disposal facilities. New stations will berequired for each of the districts, and a brief description of those pro-vided in the Phase II project, is given below:

(a) Northern Sewerage District

The sewage from this district will all be directed tothe Shad Bagh Pumping Station. The existing facilityis an austere structure, with one 10-cfs and three20-cfs pumps. There is insufficient room within thisstructure to install additional pumps or space forlarger pumps. It is proposed that a new pump house be

constructed adjacent to the existing pumping stationduring Phase II to provide additional pumping capacity.The new pump house should be able to house pumps with acapacity of 180 cfs. The existing pump station andpumps are to be retained. Pumping capacity of 40 cfsis proposed for installation during Phase II; with anadditional 40 cfs and 30 cfs, respectively, being

ANNEX 2Page 5

installed in the near future. The pumps proposed areof the vertical shaft centrifugal type, with electricmotors. The possibility of using a more economicalpump system will be investigated during detaileddesign. Standby generator capacity is needed in theevent of power failure but due to financial constraintsis not provided in the Phase II project but will be pro-vided in a future Phase III.

(b) Central Sewerage District

All of the sewage from this district will be directed tothe existing M4ain Outfall Pumping Station. This pumpingstation is suitable for the installation of larger capacitypumps, and it is proposed that during Phase II five of theexisting pumps (three 20 cfs and two 10 cfs) be replacedwith three 30 cfs capacity pumps. The Main Outfall PumpingStation is the only pumping station within the system whichis not adjacent to the waste disposal facilities. A 66inch outfall sewer will be required as part of Phase IIto carry the sewage from the pumping station to the dis-posal facilities, a distance of about 3,000 feet. Alter-natively a fenced open channel, similar to the existingsullage carrier is considered to be more economicallyfeasible by WASA and will be studied during detailed design.

(c) South Civil Lines Sewerage District

It is proposed to build the New Nawankot Sewage PumpingStation adjacent to the Bund Road, in lieu of expanding theexisting Nawankot Pumping Station, and providing an outfallsewer. Upon the completion of the new pumping station andthe trunk sewers leading to this pumping station, theexisting Raj Garh and Nawankot Pumping Stations are to beabandoned because of obsolescence. The new pumping sta-tion will have an ultimate capacity of 200 cfs, of which90 cfs will be installed during the Phase II project.

(d) Southwest Sewerage District

A new pumping station at Multan Road is proposed for thisdistrict. To date only a small portion of this district hassewers, but WASA is presently installing sewers for the 1600Acre Scheme. A trunk sewer is proposed to connect this area,and the area presently sewered, to the proposed pumpingstation. At present, the proposed southerly extension of theWest Bund Road has not been started, and it will be neces-sary to construct a small protective bund around this facilityto prevent flooding when the Ravi River overflows. Thepumping station, will have an ultimate capacity of 100cfs, and it is proposed that pumps with a capacity of50 cfs be installed in the Phase II project.

ANNEX 2Page 6

(e) Shahdara Sewerage District

At the present time, no sewage collection and disposalfacilities exist within this district. A new sewage pump-ing station and sewer network are proposed for this area.The pumping station is to be constructed to provide roomfor 50 cfs of pumping capacity, but only 25 cfs ofpumping capacity is to be installed in the Phase II project.

Proposed Method of Sewage Treatment

11. The two methods of treatment considered were stabilization pondsand conventional treatment. Complete conventional treatment was consideredrather than primary or partial conventional treatment because the effluentfrom conventional primary treatment or from anaerobic, or first stage,stabilization ponds would not be satisfactory for irrigation or for dis-charge to the river for health reasons. The effluent from aerobic stabili-zation ponds would be satisfactory for such use or discharge, consideringlocal conditions. Complete conventional treatment would be needed in orderto produce an effluent comparable to that of aerobic stabilization ponds.A prototype waste stabilization pond of about 75 acres in area is providedfor the treatment of sewage from Shad Bagh. About 200 acres of land, outof the estimated 470 acres required for treating ultimate flows will nowbe acquired for this purpose. If the prototype treatment plant is success-ful the sewage from the other pumping stations will be similarly treatedin future projects, subject to the findings of the environmental studydiscussed in Annex 8.

12. The densely populated Central Sewerage District with an estimatedultimate population of about 1,200,000 persons having a population densityof 126 persons/acre and an average daily flow of 63 IMgd was chosen formaking a cost comparison between conventional treatment and waste stabili-zation ponds. Because of the more sophisticated nature of the maintenancethat would be needed for treatment with the activated sludge process andthe difficulties anticipated in keeping out industrial wastes, a biologicaltrickling filter treatment plant similar to the two 20 IMgd plants at Karachiwas selected as the most feasible method of conventional treatment. A trick-ling filter sewage treatment plant located on 300 acres of land with gritremoval and screening, primary sedimentation, trickling filters, secondarysedimentation, recirculation, sludge pumping, sludge digestion, sludge dryingbeds, laboratory facilities, garage, shops and yard piping is estimated tocost about PRs 227 million. In comparison a three stage waste stabilizationpond system located on 850 acres of land is estimated to cost only PRs 33million. As the cost of operation and maintenance of the stabilization pondsystem would be proportionately lower, an economic comparison is not needed.An inspection of the two Karachi plants showed that despite training, theskills to operate and maintain a trickling filter plant on a long termbasis are not available at this time and therefore maintenance costs ofoperating of a trickling filter plant would also include costly expatriateassistance.

ANNEX 2Page 7

13. It is unusual to find that stabilization ponds are cheaper thanother methods of sewage treatment for large cities because of high landcosts. In Lahore, land is available at a relatively cheap price outsidethe bund, in the Ravi River flood plain. Because it is susceptible toflooding this land cannot be developed for housing or industrial purposes,without costly protection work, but is suitable for waste stabilization ponds.The advantages of stabilization ponds over other methods of treatment maybe summarized as follows:

(i) Cost. Both construction cost and operating costare cheaper than for other methods which providecomparable treatment.

(ii) Ease of Operation. This treatment system requires verymuch less operating competence, as the process is verysimple.

(iii) Mechanical Equipment. Very little mechanical equipmentis required for this process, and no imported equipment.

(iv) Decentralization. Contrary to other methods of treatment,the construction and operation of a treatment works ateach of the present sewer outlets is economically feasible.There is no significant saving in the construction of onelarge stabilization pond works rather than a number ofsmaller ones. The cost of conducting all the sewage toone or two points is, therefore, saved and other advan-tages of dispersal maintained.

(v) Redundancy. The land acquired for the stabilization pondscan be put to other use if more economical treatment methodsare found to be feasibile in future.

Design Criteria

14. Based upon 100 composite samples collected by the University ofEngineering and Technology, 20 grab samples taken by CDM and with referenceto experience reported in India, the consultants have assumed a per capitaBOD5 of 0.13 lbs. for those portions of Lahore that will be served by thesewerage system. This allows about 0.1 lbs. per capita for the domesticcontribution and an additional 30% for commercial and industrial con-tributions which at a sewage flow of 53 gcd (see Annex 8, para 36) repre-sents a loading of 245 ppm BOD5 (153 lbs. per 100 cu. ft.). Many of thelarger industries of Lahore are not presently connected and pretreatmentwill be conditional to future connections.

15. The consultants have recommended a three-stage pond system consist-ing of anaerobic, facultative and aerobic ponds. The tentative design load-ings and detention times are 45 lbs. BODs per 1000 cu ft and 3.9 days deten-tion time for the anaerobic pond, 200 lbs. BOD5 per acre per day with a deten-tion time of 10 days for the facultative pond and a 120 lbs. BOD5 per acre/day

ANNEX 2Page 8

with 2.2 days detention time for the aerobic pond. The anaerobic ponds

are 10 to 15 feet deep and a loss in volume of 30% in two years is assumed.

The other ponds are assumed to be 4 feet deep and unlike the anaerobic ponds

are not expected to require protection from flooding. These criteria will

be reviewed on the basis of the environmental studies and future planning

on groundwater replenishment included in the Phase II project (see para 11

Annex 7).

Area and Location of Stabilization Ponds

16. There will be a waste stabilization pond associated with each

of the seven sewage pumping stations. In most cases these ponds will be

located outside the Bund Road, where land costs are much lower. It is

recommended by the consultants that initially one prototype stabilization

pond be designed and constructed. The proposed prototype works will more

precisely determine proper loadings and design details for both the

anaerobic and aerobic ponds. The advantage of recirculation and multiple

inlets could also be considered for the prototype works. The replenish-

ment of groundwater which occurs by natural seepage from the treatment

works will be monitored so that the construction of experimental dosed,

spreading basins for deliberate groundwater replenishment with the efflu-

ent from the prototype treatment works, can be considered. The prototype

treatment works is proposed to be constructed across the bund from the

Shad Bagh sewage pumping station. Of the estimated total land area require-

ment of 470 acres, 200 acres are to be purchased now and the prototype built

on about 75 acres in the Phase II project. Because of the difficulties of

resettling farmers and for reasons of financial constraint, the Government

does not wish to purchase more land than absolutely required at this time.

Vehicles, Equipment, Housing, Offices and Training Facilities

17. The cost of four motorcycles, two staff cars, one truck and a

half share in the workshop truck, have been included in the sewerage proj-

ect for project supervision and operations. M4aintenance spares, tools and

equipment have also been included in order to facilitate the implementation

of a proper preventative maintenance program. Half of the cost of communi-

cation and accounting equipment and furniture has been included in the

sewerage project costs. The need for housing, offices and training facili-

ties is detailed in para 22 of Annex 1 and 50% of the cost of these facili-

ties has been included in the sewerage and drainage part of the project.

C. CONSTRUCTION

Cost Estimates

18. The construction cost estimates were prepared in a manner similar

to that for water supply discussed in Annex 1 and include the costs of

drainage amounting to PRs 13.3 million, about 3% of the total project cost.

The combined sewerage and drainage costs appear on page 11.

ANNEX 2Page 9

19. Other matters relating to construction, training and project im-plementation are detailed in Annex 1 Sections D, E and F on the water sup-ply component of the project and are equally applicable to the sewerageand drainage component of the project.

D. STORM DRAINAGE

20. WASA has in recent years carried out some work on the main chan-nels of the storm drainage system. Primary drains in the Upper ChotaRavi drainage district have been partly completed and work on the outfallworks is presently in progress. A part of the primary drainage channel inthe Lower Chota Ravi drainage district was completed and the drainagepumping station was improved in the Phase I project. Work on the remainingportions of the primary drainage channel is now in progress. The Mian MirII primary drainage channel is also being extended in the sections passingthrough the Multan Road housing scheme.

21. The secondary drainage channels have not, however, received equalattention. Some of the secondary drains need rehabilitation and new sec-ondary drains are needed in areas where minor flooding now occurs. Someof the more urgent works in the secondary drainage system are included inthe Phase II project as follows:

----------- Length feet--------------Total 1977 1978 1979

Year ending June 30

New DrainsSidique Para 3,000 3,000Quila Lachman Singh 5,200 5,200Mian Mir 3,000 3,000Kot Khawaja Saeed 7,500 7,500Essa Nagar 2,800 2,800Yaleem Khana 3,500 3,500Dholan Wal 17,500 17,500

TOTAL 42,500 11,200 10,300 21,000

Rehabilitation DrainsCircular Road 3,000 3,000Government House 13,000 13,000Race Course 12,000 12,000Ram Road 8,000 8,000Raj Garh 2,500 2,500Railway 25,000 17,500 7,500

TOTAL 63,500 3,000 53,000 7,500

ANNEX 2Page 10

22. With the exception of the Railway Drain which has a cross sectionof 10 ft x 5 ft and needs rehabilitation most of the other drains are smallwith cross sections of 3 ft x 3 ft and 2-1/2 ft x 2-1/2 ft. It is there-fore proposed that construction is by local competitive bidding as inter-national bidders would not find the work to be attractive.

January 1976

PAKI6TANAPPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE TA 'V t bup?l- =hW GE AND DT-AINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Sewerage and Drainage ConstructionCost Estimates

----------------Local Losts------…---- ---------------oreign osts----------- TotalTtem Year to 'June 30 1977 1978 1970 1980 Subtotal 1977 197. 1c79 196O Subtotal Cost

nivil7forNs~~~~ . . . . . . . . . . . ............ ....... .Pl L CS 103-5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Civil ".Pusl0-sPumping Stations 1,773 5,049 4,364 1,0c0o 12,274 591 1,581 1,137 147 3,456 15,730Trunml Sewers 2,184 ,,594 9,299 3,869 22,966 1,176 4,069 4,992 2,079 12,336 35,302Co]lectors 1,818 12,458 15,574 4,933 34,783 979 6,708 3,386 2,657 18,730 53,513Stabilization Ponds 755 756 1,511 407 406 813 2,324Dr ains 539 1,799 1,853 591 4,782 28 94 97 31 250 5,032Operational Buildings 1,616 1,616 3 232 20 20 40 3,272

Total Civil Works 6 28,516 3 ,E-T 1 1,27 79,540 125,39 5,320 35,625 115,173

,quiw_entPumping Equipment 949 2,406 1,839 384 5,578 720 2,040 1,920 600 5,280 10,858Miscellaneous 20 21 41 732 733 1 465 1,506

Tota] Bquipment 969 2,427 , 5,619 1,452 2,773 6,745 12,364Total Civil Worksand Equipment 7,283 30,943 35,300 11,641 85,167 4,226 15,265 16,959 5,920 42,370 127,537

Duties and Taxes 1,087 1,814 1,056 330 4,287 4,287

Consultants 289 289 578 525 525 1,050 1,628

Subtotal 8,659 33,o46 36,356 11,971 90,032 4,751 15,790 16,959 5,92C 43,420 133,452

Land - Sewerage 774 2,059 1,285 4,118 4,118Drainage 1,000 2 400 1 400 4 800 4 800

Total Land 1,774

ContingenciesPhysical 1,731 6,609 7,272 2,394 18,006 950 3,158 3,392 1,184 8,684 26,690Price 1,459 10,588 16,673 7,038 35.758 684 4,548 7 326 3 479 16,037 51,795

Total Contingencies 3,190 17,197 23,945 9,432 53764 1634 776 10,718 t,63 24,721 78,485

Administration 822 1,898 2,154 2,450 7,324 7,324

UKEP Financed Consultants 1,693 748 351 2,792 2,792

Gi4AND TOTAL 1 45 56.600 65,140 23,853 16o,038 8 78 24,244 28,028 10,583 70,933 230,971

h/ Phrsical contingencies are 20, of all costs except land.

March 1976

APPRAI&AL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

lroject 2ost tstainates

Year To Juhne 2-- Local Costs ---------- ------------- Foreign Costs ---------- Total1977 1978 1979 1980 Subtotal 1977 1978 1979 1980 Subtotal Costs.... ... ................. ...... .. . PRs 10-r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tater D%pplyUTells 2,651 8,322 8,596 2,926 22,495 1,753 4,263 3,820 1,313 11,149 33,644Pumnphouses 310 1,110 1,184 384 2,988 1,492 4,885 5 029 1,634 13,040 16,028I c.in Grid 7,372 15.324 9,817 1,866 34,379 2,9 ,6 '15 1,2 1,93 49,3606Distribution 1.etork 1,268 4,963 5,632 1,937 13,800 965 2,248 1,958 675 5,846 19,646Buildings321 322636,3:x<ui.pient - 33 3232 6,670 2,893 2,893 - 5,786 12,456

Total Water -Jupply 11,601 36,284 31,797 7,113 86,795 6,506 20,755 18,895 4,646 50,802 137,597Sewlerage and Dra-inage

Bumping Stations 3,809 9,269 7,259 1,dO2 22,139 1,311 3,621 3,057 747 8,736 30,875Trunk Sewers 2,184 7,594 9,299 3,889 22,966 1,176 4,089 4,992 2,079 12,336 35,302Collectors 1,818 12,458 15,574 4,933 34,783 979 6,708 8,386 2,657 18,730 53,513Stabilization Ponds 755 756 1,511 407 406 813 2,324Buildings 1,616 1,616 3,232 20 20 40 3,272liscelJaneous 20 21 41 732 733 1,465 1,5o6Drains 539 1,799 1,853 _91 4,782 28 94 97 31 250 5,032Total Sewrerage andDrainage 8,370 32,757 36,356 11,971 89,454 4,226 15,265 16,959 5,920 42,370 131,824

Consulting Services 577 578 - 1,155 1,050 1,050 2,100 3,255

Sub-Total 20,548 69,619 68,153 19,084 177,404 11,732 37,070 35,854 10,566 95,272 272,676

Tand 2,044 5,03.1 3,144 157 10,376 10,376

ContingenciesIPhysical 4,109 13,942 13,613 3,816 35,480 2,356 7, j 7,171 2,113 19,054 54,534Price 4,10 'l -. Ihi 119297 66,331 1,696 10,677 15499 6,209 34,071 100,402Total Contingencies 7,312 35,227 44,159 5,3 101,818 4Z052 t 53,125 54,93

Administration 1,645 3,797 4,307 4,900 14,649 14,649

UNDP Financed vonsulting 3,386 1,495 703 5,584 5,584 jt31,549 113,674 119,763 39,254 304,240 19,220 56,656 59,217 18,888 153,981 458,221M h- 8,910 6,930 15,

March 1976

ANNEX 4Tlft.TIS T.AET

APPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - JI'.SE II

-`TIiATTD SCUT !DUT OF DISBURS1f2lTS

TID Oumulative Disbursements PercentageFiscal Year at end of Quarterand Quarter us$0o 's

1977

First 100 3.4

Second 200 0.8

Third 1,700 6.4

Fourth 3,700 13.9

1978

First 6,200 23.3

Second 8,700 32.7

Third 11,200 42.1

Fourth 13,700 51.5

1979

First 16,200 60.9

Second 18,700 70.3

Third 21,200 79.7

Fourth 23,500 88.3

1980

First 24,5o0 92.1

Second 25,50o 95.9

Third 26,030 97.7

Fourth 26,300 98.9

1981

First 26, 500 99.6

Second 26,630 100.0

March 1976

ANNEX

PAKISTANAPPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY SEWERAGE

AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE 11CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

IQ 2Q 30 40 10 20 3Q 4Q 10 2Q 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40

WATER SUPPLY

LAND ACQUISITION _ I _ i

DRILLING OF TUBEWELLS _N 1 on * '""' sm m ~ #

SUPPLY OF PUMPS AND SCREENS _ m N A spel Irn_

CONSTRUCTION OF PUMPHOUSES a i* I - _ tIFA - _ _ ._1 _

SUPPLY OF PIPES AND VALVES IMP - I _S *_li1

TRANSMISSION PIPELINES m m * Sw(ll

DISTRIBUTION NETWORK EXTENSIONS B * I = I _ I 1 I I I = I * I I 9 _ 1 _ I *

HOUSE CONNECTIONS S = _ I I _ I m_ I go m I= _um_

SEWERAGE

LAND ACQUISITION

SUPPLY OF PUMPS AND FITTINGS * * - _ N II 116 _111_11

CONSTRUCTION OF PUMPING STATIONS * - * _ m W iS lIm* -4

TRUNK SEWERS __ 'I ' 4D 9 11 ; -- -

WASTE STABILISATION POND m Im mm -' ml( Dim oll< )S,s, lolls'

COLLECTION NETWORK EXTENSIONS min_mum. I um _m _I_ I =um nm _mum umI

HOUSE CONNECTIONS mm mm INN am me m.m mmI mum. om sm mmm mu

DRAINAGE

LAND ACQUISITION

NEW DRAINS * S -| _ I I S a m I we log m

REHABILITATION OF OLD DRAINS o = * I _ I . I . m I so

DRAINAGE OF PONDS a m m*ll

LEGEND

m _, LAND ACQUISITION A_,,,,_WTENOERING _ CONSTRUCTION

_ _ _ MDESIGN CONTRACT SIGNATURE _ , ammNODESiGN PC OCUCEMENT

TENDER INVITATION """"""M03iSANUFACTURE ORAiNTESMOB ILISA15639ACTIVITIES

World B.nIk-15639

ANNEX 6Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT-PHASE II

Existing Water Supply Facilities, Water Sources and Hydrology

Brief History

1. The city of Lahore is :Located on the southeast bank of the RaviRiver, in the northwestern part of the Bari Doab, a roughly rectangulararea between the Ravi and Sutlej Rivers of the Indus Valley. The denselypopulated walled city dating from Moghul times is on high ground createdby its own rubble. New urban development is mostly to the south, withthe eastern boundary about 30 miles from the Indian border. A bund extend-ing from the river eastward to a low scarp at elevation 710 feet above MSLprotects the city from flooding by the river. Except for some recent growthacross the river to the northwest: most of the development over the past twodecades has been roughly in the shape of a triangle tapering down from thescarp near the Army Cantonment down to the protecting bund. The ChotaRavi drain loops the north of the city and the Lahore Branch Canal dividesit diagonally. This irrigation canal is supplied from the BRB Link Canalwhich conveys water from the Chenab River and crosses the Ravi River througha syphon about six miles to the niortheast and flows southwards about four milesto the east of the city. There are numerous agricultural tubewells surround-ing the city which now depends upon ground water for its water supply.

Water Supply Facilities

2. Domestic water supplies for the city were first taken from theriver, canals or dug wells. About one hundred years ago a partial publicwater supply was obtained for the walled city by excavation of 35 to 40shallow wells at Badne Bagh in a former course of the Ravi River. Theoriginal water table was at a depth of about 15 ft. In 1930, 1955 and1962 many more tubewells were installed in central Lahore by several agenciesand in private homes. By 1967 there were about 200 wells, 106 belonging tothe Lahore Municipal Corporation (LMC) and others to government agenciessuch as the Army Cantonment and P'akistan Railways. The wells, pipelinesand other appurtenances handed over by LMC to LITWW in 1967, additions madeup to the end of June 1972 under the Phase I project, and new facilitiesadded by LITWW and the Province between June 1972 and June 1975 are listedbelow and the major components are shown in IBRD Map 11913.

ANNEX 6Page 2

Added by LITWWPhase I Retire-

Water Handed over Project June 1972 ments NetSupply by LMC to ending to since JuneAssets LITWW in 1967 June 1972 June 1975 1967 1975

1. Tubewells-2 cfs (nos) 106 9/2 6/ 80 41

Tubewells-4 cfs (nos) - 21 34 4 51

2. Mains over 12" (miles) 4.0 22.5 13.5 - 40

3. Distribution pipe (miles) 130 106 235 - 471

4. Overhead Reservoirs (nos) 18 1 3 - 22

5. Total Connections (nos) 50,000 30,417 26,330 - 106,747

6. Metered 1/2 inch) 4,334 2,400 1,489 - 8,223

to 1 inch )

7. General

Standpipes 1,092 - - 80 1,012 Nos.Katries 1,488 658 - 2,146Hamams 634 156 790Sabeels 68 74 142

8. Chlorinators 14 22 36

/1 Eight taken over from the Public Health Engineering Department.

/2 All six taken over from the Public Health Engineering Department.

Pumping Installations

3. The condition of WASA mechanical and electrical plant is generallypoor, much below the standard expected for well operated and reliable equip-ment of this type. Problems exist with major items of equipment, as notedbelow:

(a) An analysis of 34 pumping tests performed in 1974has shown that 26 of the 34 pumps tested (over 75%had deteriorated well beyond the point where repairswere required).

ANNEX 6Page 3

(b) Records of the Motor Repair Shop indicated thatapproximately 40 vertical turbine pump motors(approximately 40% of the total number currentlyin operation) are rewound annually.

(c) Virtually none of the 13 gas engines previouslyinstalled at tubewell sites is presently capableof operation at rated speed.

(d) An excessive number of problems occur with motorstarters (of 22 air-gap starters installed on4 cfs tubewells, 8 are currently inoperative).

(e) It has been observed during tubewell inspectionthat pumpset vibration and packing gland leakageare generally excessive.

Meters for Tubewells

4. WASA does not know how much water it produces, or for whatpurpose the water is used. This lack of knowledge is because there areno meters on the tubewells. The consultants have designed a low cost by-pass meter for installation on tubewells which could be quickly madelocally. Evidence has been obtained from tests that such meters are rea-sonably accurate and capable of maintenance in the WASA metershop. Themetering of all tubewells is given priority in the Phase II project.

Wastage

5. Reports on the first 15 days of a wastage survey were that oneor two percent of the premises in the walled city were found to have novalve or faucet on the water pipe so that water ran continuously in thesepremises whenever there was water in WASA's distribution pipes. Anestimated fifty percent of the premises were found to have leaking watertaps, and almost an equal number had leaking service lines. Observationswere made of public use of public standpipes and the consultants estimatethat wastage amounts to 30% of water used. A public education program isincluded in the project to reduce wastage. WASA staff require trainingand management assistance on the maintenance of public standposts andsimilar services.

6. It is current practice of WASA to authorize service connectionswhich are installed by private licensed plumbers which consist simply ofa "ferrule", usually a 1/2" bend connected to the top of the distributionpipe, and a short piece of flexible pipe for connection to the customer'sservice pipe. The quality of materials used and standard of plumbing isnot supervised by WASA. A "Plumbing Code" and much stricter supervisionof plumbers is provided in the Phase II project to reduce leakage from

ANNEX 6Page 4

improperly installed plumbing and service connections. This should becomplemented with the laying of water tight water mains and pipelines bytraining of staff in design and supervision of construction.

Leakage

7. Unaccounted for water including lost water, municipal use wastageand leakage is estimated by the consultants to be around 63% at the presenttime. Because of the lack of data these cannot be separated quantatively.The proportion of leakage is judged to be a substantial proportion of theunaccounted for water because of the low standard of supervision, workman-ship in pipe-laying, making of service connections and repairs of mainsleaks. The Phase II project includes a leakage survey, repair of leaksand training to improve standards in the construction, operation andmaintenance of the Lahore water distribution system with the objectiveof reducing unaccounted for water to about 45% by 1980.

Meter Maintenance

8. During eleven months in 1974, a total of 1,474 1/2-in and 3/4 inmeters were repaired and reinstalled in customers' premises, for a projectedannual total of approximately 1,600 meters. It is estimated that approxi-mately 5,000 meters can be repaired annually in the meter repair shop(which was built in the Phase I project) without an increase in the presentnumber of staff of 39 people. By the time that the number of meters whichrequire repair exceeds 5,000, additional staff will have been trained onthe job by the existing staff, and the capacity of repair facilities willhave been increased. The meter maintenance program is presently adequateinsofar as the competence and capacity to repair meters are concerned andproductivity in the new meter shop is reasonably satisfactory. There aregrave defects in the meter maintenance program itself but here also as inseveral similar areas, improvement must await the strengthening of thesupervisory and administrative organization by management assistance tobe provided in the Phase II project.

9. Aside from a small supply of spares purchased in 1970, for theJapanese meters purchased at that time, no water meter spare parts areavailable for meter repairs. Currently, meters are being repaired withspare parts salvaged from a rapidly dwindling supply of unserviceable meters.The consultants have recommended that standardization on two or three watermeter makes be implemented, with purchase of spares to be accomplishedbefore needs arise. There is provision for the purchase of meters andspares in the Phase II project.

Chlorinators

10. The majority of the gas chlorinators and hypochlorinators that areinstalled are either not functioning at all or functioning poorly. WASA has

ANNEX 6Page 5

recently ordered new chlorinators and spare parts for repairing the existingchlorinators. Chlorination is only practiced in the monsoon season whennegative pressures in the distribution network allows polluted water to bedrawn into the pipelines.

Fire Hydrants

11. There is no accurate record of the number of fire hydrants inLahore. The fire-brigade which is operated by the LMC has arrangementswith WASA to fill its fire pumps and water lorries. Fire hydrants areincluded in the Phase II project to be installed in consultation with theLMC. There is no provision in the system design for additional water forfire fighting.

Present Water Supply

12. The water supply of Lahore is presently drawn entirely from ground-water. The producing tubewells are installed in an area of about 14 squaremiles. The average capacity of these wells is about two cfs. Neverthe-less, the regional drawdown in this part of the city is now over 45 feet ina small area, over 40 feet in about one-third of a square mile and about35 feet in one and one half square miles. The ground water level in thisarea is falling at the rate of about 3 feet per year and causing increasesin the pumping heads of operating wells and abandonment of wells in whichthe water level leaves the pump bowls exposed. The economical long-termdevelopment and conservation of Lahore's water resources for domestic watersupply has become a matter of major concern and the available hydrologicalinformation was studied by the consultants to assist WASA in planning futureaction.

Surface Water Sources

13. Besides ground water there are two possible sources of surfacewater which might be used after treatment to supply water to Lahore. Onesource is the Lahore Branch Canal and the other is the Ravi River. Therecould be four feasible alternative ways of using these surface water sources:

(i) Taking water from the Ravi River above the mostupstream of the city sewage and drainage outlets;

(ii) taking water from the BRB and Lahore Branch Irri-gation Canal system at Mughalpura where the LahoreBranch Canal enters the city boundary;

(iii) transferring the Ravi River water to the BRB canalfive miles upstream at the syphon and withdrawingit at the Lahore Branch at Mughalpura; or

ANNEX 6Page 6

(iv) withdrawing water from the Lahore Branch at Mughal-pura but replacing it below the city with treatedsewage effluent.

Ground water Hydrology

14. For making any comparison between these development alternativesof surface water with ground water a study was made of the available hydro-logical data to select the most economic method of utilizing the groundwater resources. Until about 1973, detailed studies of ground water inthe Lahore area had not been made and information about ground water underLahore was even less complete than for the rest of the Punjab. No control-led pumping test has ever been made in Lahore. Pumping tests made in thePunjab close to Lahore have given quite variable results for permeabilityand transmissivity. Data about strata below 500 feet are practically non-existent, as are data about water quality below this depth.

15. Based on available data the consultants have attempted to establishthe lateral permeability of the aquifer in the Lahore area. This included theanalysis of short-term drawdown and time recovery measurements from accept-ance tests of 20 wells constructed by LITWW in 1974 and the consultants con-clude that average transmissivity may possibly be 50% higher or even 50%lower than the figure considered most probable - 362,000 US gallons/day/foot width. Computer studies for forecasting drawdown were made on thesethree alternative assumptions. A specific yield of 0.12 was adopted for thepurposes of the computer studies. IBRD consultant, Dr. Spiegel, agreeswith the assumption of specific yield but recommends a transmissivity of100,000 US gallons/day/foot. The consultants have also recommended pump-ing tests to clarify some of the major areas of differences between hisrecommendations and their findings, including an extended program of fielddata collection and analysis by the WASA ground water cell to predict thelong-term availability of ground water for Lahore.

Well Spacing

16. The actual selection of well spacing was the result of trials,based on crude calculations of interference effects between wells, togetherwith the assumption based upon experience in the Phase I project that awell of 4 cfs capacity could be adopted as a standard design. In the partof the city in which the most wells have been installed, 84 producing wells(June 1975) are located in an area of about 14 square miles. This is anaverage spacing of approximately 2,000 feet. The average capacity of thesewells is about two cfs. Doubling the pumping rate would be expected roughlyto double the drawdown. Considering the importance of continuing to utilizegroundwater as a water source for Lahore for the very long term, so that asmall regional drawdown of ground water is highly desirable, about 4,000 fthas been recommended by the consultants as the suggested space between wells.

ANNEX 6Page 7

This spacing is thought to be large enough so that drawdown of ground waterwill be spread over a large area, comparatively small and uniform. Thedrawdown will be initially larger in the center of the city near the walledcity than at the edges, but the center will slowly shift away when a moreuniform spacing is achieved with the growth of the city. A total of 175wells are proposed for construction up to 1986, of which 59 are includedin the project.

17. Grouping of wells in well centers is not generally recommendedby the consultants. Normally, the spacing of single wells uniformlythroughout the distribution system keeps pipe sizes and drawdown to aminimum. However, adjacent to areas of high demand at the periphery ofthe distribution system, well centers would provide additional water whereit is badly needed. This would minimize the length of transmission pipingwhich however in this case would not double as distribution piping. Thewells in each well center would interfere with each other and additionaldrawdown would result within the group especially if the wells were operatedcontinuously. Significant additional drawdown among other wells would notbe likely because of the distance of the well centers from the city. Foursuch well centers have been planned on the north and western edges of thecity adjacent to areas of high water demand (Annex 1, para 8). Three ofthese centers are included in the project.

18. Local infiltration may be due to rainfall, to irrigation, or toseepage from canals, drainage channels, sewers or leaking water pipes.It has been stated in the United States Geological Survey Water SupplyPaper 1608-H that in the Punjab, rainfall infiltrates into the groundwaterreservoir only when the rainfall exceeds about ten to fourteen inches ayear. The amount of rain which will cause recharge in Lahore has not beenestablished. After consideration and several trials with the computer,the consultants have assumed a local infiltration from all sources equivalentto two inches of rain a year. Dr. Spiegel does not agree with this and hasrecommended that infiltration is ignored in the drawdown model.

Consultants Forecast of Regional Drawdown

19. If river recharge and local infiltration are insignificant, andif average transmissivity is about 50% higher than the figure presentlyconsidered most probable (362,000 US gallons per day per foot width), thenregional drawdown may exceed 130 feet under an area of about five squaremiles. Conversely, if average transmissivity is approximately 50% lowerthan the value considered most probable, then on the basis of insignificantriver recharge and local infiltration and for the projected pumpage, regionaldrawdown under Lahore may by 1986 exceed 270 feet in a small area.

ANNEX 6Page 8

LITWW's Forecast of Regional Drawdown

20. Because of the more conservative recomendations of IBRD consul-tant, Dr. Spiegel, LITWW made parallel studies to forecast regional draw-down using average transmissivities of 100,000 U.S. gallon/day/foot width,insignificant river recharge and infiltration, for 10 existing wells, 12wells to be built shortly and 47 wells to be built under the proposedPhase II project. The regional drawdown would then exceed 400 feet ina small area but reduce rapidly to 250 feet at the city boundary. Thepreliminary design depths of future wells discussed in Annex 1 are basedupon LITWW's water level contour forecasts and studies of the most econom-ical depth for wells within Lahore at which transportation of ground waterfrom outside the city becomes more economical. Pumping tests will be madein the Lahore area under the UNDP Project to check these forecasts beforecompletion of final designs.

Comparison of Water Sources

21. For the purposes of comparison of water sources, the consultantsassumed pump housing pipes of 250 feet and a total pumping head of 180feet for wells. An economic comparison is then made of the provision ofa 100 cfs increment of local supply by each of the four alternativemethods of obtaining surface water listed in para 13 and by additionalwells at 4,000 feet centers in Lahore as described above. At discountrates of 8, 10 and 15%, the least expensive surface supply is seven oreight times as expensive as ground water. The ground water level wouldneed to recede to about 350 feet below ground level for the operating costsof well supplies to equal that of the least expensive surface supply.Capital costs for ground water would be less than that of surface waterat any practical depth of available ground water in the Lahore area in theplanning period of 1976-86. Should the upcoming pumping tests indicatethat true transmissivities are much lower than assumed, it would becomenecessary to further refine these economic studies. If the true transmis-sivities are found to be greater there will be savings which could beutilized in extending the network.

Well Fields

22. On the basis of present assumptions of 4 cfs well capacities andaquifer coefficients, the consultants compared a 200 cfs capacity wellfield situated outside the city with their proposal of wells situated at4,000 feet centers in Lahore. At discount rates of 8, 10 and 15%, waterlevels in Lahore will have to drop to 322, 393 or 578 feet to justify thewell field. To justify a 100 cfs ground water transportation scheme froma well field at a distance of about six miles to the north of Lahore, andusing the same discount rates, water levels in Lahore will have to drop to396, 482 or 706 feet. The present studies, therefore, indicate that plan-ning for 1976-86 should be contingent upon ground water levels being kept

ANNEX 6Page 9

from dropping to around 322 feet within Lahore for as long as possible toachieve a least cost solution in developing ground water. This objectiveshould be continuously reviewed with the collection of new data and furtheranalysis, commencing with the pumping tests included in the Phase II project.

January 1976

ANNEX 7Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY. SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Existing Facilities - Sewerage and Drainage

A. SEWERAGE

Brief History

1. With the introduction of piped water supply about one hundred

years ago, a simple open drainage system for "sullage water" was intro-

duced in Lahore. Sullage water is defined as waste water from conser-vancy latrines, kitchens and bathrooms excluding solid fecal matter. Work upon

the first sanitary sewer system, designed by the Public Works Departmentcommenced in 1937 and covered the Civil Lines Districts and some areas

to the north of the walled city. By 1967 there were 12 independentsanitary sewer systems having a combined length of about 100 miles which

were handed over by the LMC to the LITWW. The original open drainage

system coveying sullage water was, over the years, connected to the

sanitary sewers. Under the Phase I project about 5 miles of main sewers

adn 28 miles of branch sewers have been constructed. Some of these sewers

formed missing links in the old system, others provided sewerage service

to the north and west of the city which was previously unsewered. The

existing pumping facilities were repaired and seven new pumps were supplied.

Sewered Areas

2. There are no accurate records of the existing sewers or of thenumber of house connections. Existing trunk sewers are shown, as accu-

rately as could be determined, on IBRD Map ;1914. The consultants estimate

that approximately one-quarter to one-thrid of the houses are directly

connected to the sanitary sewers. The majority of premises receive

sewer service by open drains of sullage water, and in some cases sewage,to street gratings and to holes in the side of man-holes. The fecalmaterial from these houses is dumped into roadside "filth depots"from which it is collected together with other refuse by LMC and dumpedin selected sites to the south side of the city. LMC workers often dump

refuse into the open drains, storm drainage channels or into sanitary sewer

man-holes causing serious obstruction to flows. In a substantial part of

the city estimated at thrity-five square miles, containing a population ofover 1,000,000, a large majority of the houses do not have water flush

latrines. Usually these houses are on small plots and the length of streets

ANNEX 7Page 2

and lanes in such an area is relatively greater than in the rest of thecity. In three such areas surveyed, about 30% of the houses were connectedwhen the sewers were built in 1967 or before. These were located in thestreet directly in front of the house and are called "Old Sewers". Datafrom this survey which included "New Sewers" completed three years agoare given below:

Sewer Lengths Houses ConnectedFeet Percent

Name of Area Popln. Old New Old NewArea Surveyed per acre Sewers Sewers Sewers Sewers

Krishan Nagar 50.84 201 5,000 650 56 2

Dev. Samaj Road 66.94 100-150 3,960 0 53 0

Misri Shah 245.30 134 30,370 5,585 23 8

Total orWeighted Average 363.08 - 39,330 - 30 -

3. In most such areas in which sanitary sewers have been installed,about half or less of the streets or lanes have sanitary sewers. As des-cribed above, the lanes without sanitary sewers, and even some of thestreets with sanitary sewers, have small drains for sullage and other dirtywater coming from the houses. The drains generally discharge into thesanitary sewer at a street corner through a grating. These street drainsalso carry some storm water into the sewers after rain. Such houses,which have no water flush latrines, do not have a direct connection tothe sanitary sewer and are served indirectly through the sullage drains.

Sewerage Districts

4. Lahore has a conventional system of collector sewers, leading totrunk sewers flowing by gravity to pumping stations, which lift the collectedsewage into earth channels called "sullage carriers" either for irrigationor discharge to the Ravi River. The trunk sewers follow the natural slopeof the ground and discharge at five outlets, one to the north and four tothe west of the city. There are five existing sewer districts. A newsewerage district, Shadhara should be added because piped water serviceis now provided and there is an urgent need for facilities to carry awaythe waste water. Also, an existing sub-district is expected to developinto a separate sewerage district in the future.

ANNEX 7Page 3

5. The 1969 Master Plan recommended that "partially combined"sewers continue to be used in the part of the city now having them, butthat the rest of the city have separate systems of sanitary and stormwatersewers. The consultants studied the feasibility of constructing "partiallycombined" sewers, making them large enough to carry storm flows and lightrains of frequent occurrence. It is found that the large additional costof this type of system would not provide appreciable additional benefits.Most dwellings in Lahore produce dirty "sullage" water, which is conductedin surface drains to the street corner and then discharged into the sanitarysewer, or into open ponds scattered throughout the city. Over a millionpeople mostly in the lower income brackets are estimated to use such asystem of sewage disposal, though most of them do not have a sewer in thestreet directly in front of their homes. The expense of constructing thenecessary sanitary sewers and making the necessary connections, includingplumbing changes in the houses, required to convert these areas to complete-ly separate sanitary sewers cannot be justified at present. As the waste-water presents a health hazard, the consultants recommend that the presentcombination of open sullage drains and underground sanitary sewers shouldbe continued in these areas. The sullage water drains will also carry somestorm water runoff after a rain and the system will therefore work as a"lpartially combined" sewer system. In other areas of the city, where everyhouse is connected to the sanitary sewers, it is customary to drain roofsand paved areas of the compound to the sanitary sewer, so that these areasalso have "partially combined" sewers. The drainage in a number of areaswas recently improved by connecting standing pools of water to the sanitarysewer. There are, in most parts of Lahore, no local collectors for stormwater runoff. This use of the sanitary sewers enables the postponementof the construction of storm water collectors and provides for the mostefficient use of the sanitary sewers.

6. The temporary use of the sanitary sewers as local collectorsof stormwater has two principal disadvantages:

(a) It will not carry away rain water runoff very rapidlyunless the sanitary sewers are very much enlarged,which is not the intention. Some local flooding will,therefore, occur after a heavy rain. Lahore, however,is flat, and the concentration of rainwater runoff ina small area where it would cause serious property damagegenerally does not occur. Considering the paucity of rainand the infrequent rainstorms, little property damage willoccur, but there will be considerable inconvenienceduring one month of each year at the peak of themonsoon as some hours will elapse before the storm-waters are all carried away.

ANNEX 7Page 4

(b) the storm water which pools in the streets and open pondsafter a heavy rain is mixed with sewage, and is a healthhazard, but the use of "partially combined" sewers willreduce this somewhat. In the areas with the greatestdensity of population sullage water sometimes containingsewage often overflows in the streets, and the peoplealready live with this hazard.

7. Except in those areas such as the walled city in which, becauseof congestion, it is not practicable to lay both sewers and storm drains,the consultants recommend that the new sewers for Lahore should be designedonly for peak sanitary sewage flows, plus allowances for industrial waste-waters and infiltration where applicable, but with no additional allowancefor storm water flows. In actual practice, these sewers would operate ona "*partially combined" basis, using excess capacity during early years andand off-peak hours to gradually carry away accumulations of rainwateruntil it becomes feasible to build storm water collectors to carry awayall of the rainwater.

Sewage Disposal

8. The present practice of sewage disposal consists of collectingsewage and sullage water into reinforced concrete tanks at sewage disposalstations. After removal of floating matter and coarse screening, the sewageis pumped into "sullage carriers" leading to irrigable land for growingfood crops. Surplus quantities are discharged into storm water channelswhich flow into the Ravi river. In times of flood, all of the sewage isdischarged into the river. Sewage is currently disposed of in this mannerat six points and about half is used for irrigation as shown below.

Amount UsedAverage forFlows % Used for Irrigation

Disposal Station (cfs) Irrigation (cfs)

Nawankot 18 20 3.6Raj Garh 20 50 10.0M4ain Outfall:

Main Channel 60 60 36.0Ghonga Wala 20 100 20.0Sanda Kalan 15 100 15.0

Chotta Ravi 25 60 15.0Shad Bagh 35 5 1.8Bhogiwal 20 30 6.0

208 50 107.4

ANNEX 7Page 5

9. The amount of sewage used for irrigation purposes varies fromstation to station, and with the season. If there are no crops needingwater, or after rain, relatively little sewage goes on the land and mostgoes to the river directly. At Shad Bagh, the sewage is available at alow level only, and little is used at any time. Principal crops in orderof acres irrigated are:

Shad Bagh - Potatoes, cauliflower, tomatoes, cabbage, peasonion, carrots, radish (mooli).

Bhogiwal - Summer - radish, pothery, onion, garlic, ladyfinger, karala, rams, pumpkins, potatoes, cucumber.

General - Winter - cabbage, potatoes, coriander, cauliflower,onion, radish, pothery, turnip, salad, fenageek.

Environmental Studies

10. Considering the vegetables which are irrigated with sewage, thisirrigation may cause infection and disease both to the farmers and usersof the crops. There are no records available on the level of infectionor the economic loss to the community. Though most vegetables are cookedin the form of curries, intestinal diseases are reported to be widespreadamong the poor people. The Ravi River in its course towards the sea belowLahore is used as a source for canal water in a number of places. Thoughground water is widely used, small numbers of people use canal water forbathing and drinking. As the water is part Lahore sewage, this use couldcause injury to health. At present, the proportion of sewage in the riveris usually small and probably has never exceeded one-sixth of the low flow.This proportion is, however, expected to increase because (1) the low flowof the river is unlikely to increase and may even decrease and (2) the amountof sewage discharged by the city will increase. This will tend to decreasethe natural purification now occuring in the river. The Phase II projectprovides for setting up an environmental studies program including a studyof the river to collect and analyze data for future planning. A matterto be studied first will be the feasibility of advising the public towash vegetables before use and initiating some control over the cropsgrown with sewage.

11. The sewage of Lahore is already a valuable resource in a locationwith a shortage of cheap irrigation water. In addition, the natural groundwater reservoir now supplying water to Lahore is being overpumped, and itslevel is dropping. Therefore, sewage is expected to become an even more valu-able resource within a few years either as a means of replenishing the groundwater reservoir, as a substitute for irrigation water following treatmentor as industrial water supply (see Annex 1). The Phase II project providesfor collecting most of the data that will be needed to study these alter-natives in future planning. Treatment of most of the sewage of Lahore will

ANNEX 7Page 6

probably be required by 1986 and sewage treatment works for Lahore sewageto be built between 1981 and 1986 have been provided by the consultantsin the revised Master Plan. Because of the need for staff and officialsto become familiar with sewage treatment procedures and with the resultsof treatment, and because of the proposed method of treatment which isnew to the country, the consultants recommend the construction andoperation of a prototype sewage treatment plant in the Phase II project.

B. DRAINAGE

Existing Drainage Districts

12. There has been one separation and some minor realignments madeto the four principal drainage districts of Lahore identified in the 1969Master Plan. The Chota Ravi Drainage District on the north of the cityhas been separated into two independent drainage districts. Some minorrealignments have been made to the Mian Mir I and Mian Mir II drainagedistricts in the center of the city because of public pressures. The fourthdistrict called the Satto Katla Drainage District covering the south of thecity is not sufficiently populated for planning and development of its drain-age system.

13. In 1969, the Chota Ravi Drainage District included a main drainapproximately 61,000 feet in length, draining approximately 11,400 acreswithin its boundaries. It has now been recognized that storm water channelscould be considerably decreased in size, while still maintaining adequatedrainage of tributary areas by separating the Chota Ravi Drainage Districtinto two independent drainage districts. The result of this separation isa considerable decrease in the cost of future channels to be constructedin this area. The two drainage areas thus formed are now to be calledthe Lower Chota Ravi Drainage District and the Upper Chota Ravi DrainageDistrict with storm water flowing away from the railway line in an easterlydirection as well as a portion flowing to the west from the Shalimar Gardensarea. The levels in the Ravi River at the confluences with the drainagechannels from both drainage districts, permit gravity drainage of thesetwo districts under average flow conditions into the Ravi River and drain-age by pumping during periods in which the Ravi River is in flood.

14. In the Upper Chota Ravi Drainage District, construction of 23,000feet of drainage channels has recently been completed or is underway. Con-tract documents have been prepared for a further 25,000 feet. The channelsin this district are designed to carry a peak flow at the bund, at thelocation of the Shad Bagh Drainage Pumping Station, of approximately 700cfs. In the Lower Chota Ravi Drainage District, approximately 7,000feet of drainage channel hiave recently been completed, while contract

ANNEX 7Page 7

documents have been completed for a further 5,000 feet. The channel isdesigned to carry a peak flow at the bund, at the location of the ChottaRavi Drainage Pumping Station, of approximately 225 cfs. A portion ofthe drainage channel between Ravi Road and the railway line has not beendesigned because it is expected that this area will be utilized by theLahore Municipality as a recreational lake.

15. A realignment of the main drainage channel, differing from thatsuggested in the 1969 Master Plan, has been proposed by WASA for Mian MirDrainage District II. The channels proposed by WASA have been designedfor a peak flow of approximately 200 cfs at the point where the channelcrosses Multan Road, and approximately 800 cfs at the confluence withthe Ravi River.

16. The current practice is to mount horizontal-shaft centrifugalpumps, driven by diesel engines, on platforms supported over the main flowsections of drainage channels. The suction piping of the pumps draw waterfrom a level of approximately 10 to 15 feet below the centerline of thepumps. The pumps discharge the stormwater over stop gates provided toprevent backflow from the Ravi River during periods of flood. The LowerChota Ravi Drainage Pumping Station has an installed capacity of 82 cfsand the Babu Sabu Drainage Pumping Station which deals with Mian Mir Ihas an installed capacity of 72 cfs. The new Shadbagh Drainage PumpingStation has been designed by LITWW as described above, but with an installedcapacity of only 300 cfs. This pumping station will require extension inthe future to pump the peak design flow at the bund of approximately 700 cfs.

Long-Range Needs

17. The need for drainage within WASA's Service Area arises fromthe need to protect life and property in areas already developed and onpublic pressure to develop existing under utilized land. The increasedrisk of storm water damage (due to increasing imperviousness of built-upareas) is increasing the need for storm water drainage facilities. TheUpper and Lower Chota Ravi and Mian Mir I Drainage Districts provideillustrations of this. iany public complaints concerning drainage problemsin these areas are being miade. It is no longer feasible within the ChotaRavi Drainage District, to rely on nature to drain storm water to an ill-defined northern area near the protective bund. Development of maindrainage channels is needed. It is also no longer possible to rely on theolder existing main drainage channels of the Mian Mir I Drainage Districtfor adequate protection against stormwater flows. The secondary channelsystem needs to be developed. But the urgency for construction of drainagefacilities is presently only felt in a limited locality within the MianMir II Drainage District (the 1600 Acre Housing Scheme Area), and to amuch lesser extent within the Satto Katla Drainage District. Some of thiswork is being undertaken by WASA under the Immediate Works Program.

ANNEX 7Page 8

Minor Flooding

18. Sixty low-lying areas within the Service Area which become floodedduring periods of rain have been identified. During the monsoon seasonthese areas are nearly continuously filled with stormwater, which endangershabitations built within them or simply creates a general nuisance. Duringthe dry weather these areas reduce to open ponds filled with sewage.These areas can presently be drained only by means of portable pumpsets.There are 14 locations where sanitary sewers, which become blocked bydebris-carrying storm water flows, overflow into adjacent roadways whichare situated at lower levels. The current capacities of the sewers andsewage pumping stations are inadequate to prevent surcharging during periodsof rain. In addition, there are 16 locations where the construction ofstorm water drains along existing roadways would considerably alleviatethe flooding problems experienced along the roadways and adjacent areasduring periods of rain. The Phase II project provides for constructingnew secondary storm water drains with channel design criteria developedin the 1969 Master Plan Report and rehabilitating existing drains toreduce some of this minor flooding but postpone major storm drainageconstruction to Phase III.

January 1976

ANNEX 8Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF IHE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY,SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Population and Water Demand Projections

A. POPULATION GROWTH

Service Area

1. WASA's total service area of about 120 square miles is made up asfollows:

(a) about 68 square miles out of the LMC area of 86 square milescovered by the 60 Union Committees in the 1972 census;

(b) about 32 square miles outside the LMC southern boundary, and

(c) about 20 square miles out of the Army Cantonment area of 36square miles.

Only some parts of the service area in the Cantonment are provided with watersupply by WASA, but it is responsible for dealing with all the storm water andsome of the waste water discharged into the principal drainage channels flow-ing from the Cantonment across the city to the Ravi River.

Previous Proj ections

2. Three population projections based on the 1961 census have beenprepared for Lahore in the past:

ANNEX 8Page 2

19691964 Nihon Suido 1970

Hydrotechnic Master Plan Lahore City MasterYear Report Report Plan

1961 1,210,000 /a 1,296,477 /d 1,277,990 /c1,278,500 7i - 1,396,477 /d

1971 - 1,937,000 /e 1,976,000 aZ

1981 2,900,500 2,915,075 2,780,000 /f_ - 3,016,000 Eg

1991 3,910,000 /f4,600,000 /g

/a Portion of LMC area east of the Ravi River and within thestudy area, excluding the Cantonment.

/b Portion of LMC area east of the Ravi River and within thestudy area, including the Cantonment.

/c LMC area, excluding Cantonment.

/d LMC area, including Cantonment.

Ie Based on 4.1% Annual Growth Rate.

/f Based on 3.5% Annual Growth Rate.

/g Based on 4.3% Annual Growth Rate.

Population Studies

3. Through the cooperation of the Census Bureau, Government of Pakistan,the 1972 Census data have been made available to the consultants. Althoughcertain minor items of information could not be obtained, these census dataare the most recent available, and serve as the basis for the projections ofpopulation in the Phase II project. Due to changes in the area of both theLMC and the Cantonment, a direct comparison of populations in these politicalsubdivisions in 1961 and 1972 would be misleading. It is necessary to distri-bute the population within recognizable geographic limits in order to assessthe growth of population within the overall study area. These data are pre-sented in the following table which shows various sub-areas within the studyarea, their respective 1961 and 1972 census data, and the annual rates ofgrowth:

ANNEX 8

Page 3

Population Percent

1/ 2/ Annual RateArea 1961- 1972- of Growth

Old City 190,000 206,315 0.71

Balance of LMC(1961 linits) 1,037j990 1,775,884 4.71

LMC (1961 liidts) 1,227,990 1,982,199 4.19 -

Cantonment(1961 limits) 68,487 70,480 0.25

LMC & Cantonment1961 limits) 1,296,499 2,052,679 4.02

Lahore Township 3/ 21,407 -

Eatended CantonmentArea 25,oo00/ 35,505

Total LMC Area 1,321,477 2,149,591 -

Area south of LMC 21,000- 50 6000-/ -

Total Lahore Area 1,342,477 2s19g,591 4.32

1/ As of January 1961 Census.

2/ As of September 1972 Census.

3/ Reported as uninhabited in 1961.

4/ Estimated - reported as uninhabited in previousreports - Census data unavailable.

5/ Approximate - reported as uninhabited in previousreports - partial Census data available.

6/ Estimate - Census data unavailable.

ANNEX 8Page 4

4. The average annual rate of population growth for the period 1961-1972 was the same as that for the period 1951-1961 (4.32%) even though therewere higher and lower rates in individual years. There is insufficient dataon such parameters as improved health resulting in lower infant mortality,family planning, immigration and emigration patterns for making a demographicstudy or urban planning analysis to forecast future population growth ratesor even to discuss high, low or median trends. Nevertheless, Lahore is thecultural, govermental, educational and economic center for the Punjab, whichis the largest province in the new Pakistan and is expected to continue atabout the same rate of average growth, as in the past, for the next 10 years.

5. For the 1972 census the entire LMC area, less the Cantonment, issubdivided into 60 Union Committees. The Cantonment is subdivided into fourcharges. In the 1961 census, the LMC area was divided into 60 wards, but thelimits of these wards do not coincide with the limits of the 1972 UnionCommittees. Since there is no way in which the 1972 census data can becorrelated with the previously used wards, it is not possible to relate the1961 and 1972 population densities except on an overall basis. Populationdensities based upon the present Union Committees have, therefore, been usedby the consultants and the following assumptions relative to future growthpatterns within the service area have been made:

a. For Union Committees which are partially within the servicearea the percentage of people within the service area willremain constant throughout the planning period, based uponthe 1972 proportions.

b. Population densities will be based upon the total UnionCommittee area within the project limits, without deductionfor unused areas, such as parks, golf courses, streetmedians, etc.

c. For the Union Committees within the Old City and other UnionCommittees with 1972 population densities in excess of 200persons/acre, the annual rate of growth for the projectedperiod will be the same as that for the period 1961-1972,about 0.7% per year.

d. For the Cantonment, as defined in 1961, the projected annualrate of growth will be the same as that for the period1961-1972, 0.25% per year.

e. Those Union Committees having a 1972 population density of75 to 200 persons/acre will have an annual rate of growthequal to that projected for the Greater Lahore area, 4.35%per year, with the limitation of maximum population densityof 200 persons/acre, after which the rate of growth will bebased on that for the Old City.

f. For the area south of the LMC area, the following populationdata is assumed:

ANNEX 8Page 5

Year Population

1976 60,0001981 125,0001986 250,000

On these assumptions the consultants have projected an overall rate ofpopulation growth of 4.35% per year through 1986 as per the following table:

Population PopulationTotal WASA Total WASA

Year Lahore Service Area Year Lahore Service Area

1973 2,231,000 - 1980 3,005,800 2,869,3001974 2,328,100 2,227,300 1981 3,136,500 2,993,1001975 2,429,400 2,323,000 1982 3,272,900 3,122,7001976 2,535,000 2,422,800 1983 3,415,300 3,258,0001977 2,645,300 2,527,400 1984 3,563,900 3,399,1001978 2,760,400 2,636,600 1985 3,718,900 3,546,3001979 2,880,500 2,750,500 1986 3,880,700 3,700,000

6. Areal distributions of population for 1972, 1976, 1981 and 1986have been prepared for each of the 60 Union Committees, the small area inthe Cantonment and the 36 square miles to the south of the LMC boundarieswhich in all comprise WASA's service area.

B. POPULATION SERVED - WATER SUPPLY

Present Population Served

7. In mid-1975, only a little over half the population in the servicearea were directly served with piped water by the WASA system. An additional8% are estimated to be served by government, private and industrial systems.The remainder use hand pumped shallow wells or other private sources of water,or carry water from standposts, sabeels, served premises or katries (seeparas 11 and 12). There are about 110,000 connections to the LITWW waterdistribution system, of which about 8,600 are registered as metered. Metersare installed at the request of the consumer. Metered premises, therefore,are generally those who would pay higher charges on an annual rental value.WASA's estimates of areas served are shown in IBRD Map 12095.

Present Unmetered Residential Use

8. A program was undertaken to install and monitor meters on whatare normally unmetered residential connections. As of the end of March,1975, about 200 individual meters and 4 bulk meters had been installed.The individual meters recorded an average of 26 gpcd for a total of approx-imately 324,000 person/days. It is believed that this result is biased onthe low side because of the respcnse of water users to the installation of

ANNEX 8Page 6

the meters. One bulk meter recorded a figure of 29 gpcd for 2,933 person/daysover a 7 day period. Another bulk meter yielded 34 gpcd for 18,450 person/days over a 75 day period. It, therefore, appears that water use in theseunmetered premises is approximately 34 gpcd, under present conditions of lowpressures in the water distribution system. It is, however, believed thatthese premises are somewhat superior to the city-wide standard of unmeteredpremises, and an average of 30 gpcd has therefore been assumed for unmeteredpremises, by CDM. WASA however believes that because of the frequent break-down of pumping plant overall consumption is lower (para 23).

Present Metered Residential Use

9. Representative samples of LITWW records for residential meteredconnections were selected and the monthly metered consumptions for theperiods November, 1973 to February, 1974 and May 1974 to August, 1974 wereobtained for these connections. The number of persons residing in eachdwelling was also obtained and the average daily per capita water use wascalculated on monthly and quarterly bases, reflecting the cooler and hotterperiods of the year. The average use during the period November to Februarywas 61 gpcd and that during the period May to August was 83 gpcd. The overallaverage consumption was 72 gpcd. These figures include water wasted by theconsumer, after delivery through the meter. A check made by tabulatingpopulation density classifications with sample meter readings confirmed thisresult.

Present Commercial and Industrial Use

10. There are about 1,560 listed small industrial and commercial con-nections to the LITWW system. Data relative to metered consumption for30 of these connections were obtained. The average daily consumption was661 gallons per day per connection, including water wasted by the consumers.There are, however, many industries within the Lahore area which use largequantities of water each day, but these have their own private wells and itis expected that they will continue to use these sources as long as it iseconomical to do so.

Public Standposts and Sabeels

11. - LITWW provides water to a portion of the population throughsome 1,160 public standposts (fountains) and sabeels, the majority of whichare located in the more densely populated area. A sabeel is a public stand-post which supplies water through a small reservoir and not directly fromthe distribution system. Three ptublic standposts in a densely Dopulatedarea wqere studied and the average daily water consumption per standpostwas about 2,000 gallons. Observations were made of the number of personsusing the standposts and the purpose for which they were used. It wasfound that an average of about 150 persons used each standpost on this day,for bathing, washing clothes and dishes and obtaining water to be carriedaway. For planning purposes, it has been assumed that 200 persons aredaily provided with 13 gallons per person from each public standpost andsabeel.

Katries, Hamams a

ANNEX 8Page 7

Katries, Hamnams and Hydrants

12. Katries are private standposts, used to provide water to smallgroups of houses, usually about 5 to 6 and often in one compound. Atpresent, there are about 2,050 connections listed as katries. None ofthese is metered. Since the distance from the house of the average userto a Katrie is less than that for the average user of a public standpost,it would be reasonable to assume that the users of katries would take morewater than users of public standposts. Based on an average of 8 personsper household, and five households per katrie, it is assumed that anaverage of 40 persons are served per katrie. Assuming an average per capitadaily use of 26 gallons, including wastage, the quantity supplied by eachkatrie would average 1,040 gallons per day. Hamams are combination barbershops and public bath houses. There are 760 of these facilities listed,none being metered. On the basis of a previous estimate by LITWW, it isassumed that the water used averages 500 gallons per day per hamam. Thereare about 305 public garden hydrants of three-inch diameter reported to beused by the LMC on an average of once every three days for irrigating pub-lic parks and gardens. It is estimated that each of these hydrants pro-vides 75,000 gallons per use. This would be about 7.5 IMgd during theirrigation period, for all of the public garden hydrants.

Average Day Demand - 1974

13. On the basis of the above studies and consumer surveys made forthe tariff studies, a best estimate of population served for calendar year1974 will be about 1,300,000 - i.e. 58% of the total population in theservice area as detailed in the following table:

Daily per Population AverageCapita Use Served Daily Use No. of /1(gallons) (Nos.) (IMgd) Connections-

Metered Residential 72 63,000 4.54 8,600Unmetered Residential 30 894,300 26.83 103,000Public Standposts & Sabeels 13 232,000 13.00 1,160Katries 26 110,700 2.88 2,050Hamams (500 gallons/hamam) - - 0.41 829Commercial (660 gallons/

facility) - - 1.03 1,560

Total 1,300,000 38.7 117,199

/1 Because of the unreliability of this data WASA is making a connectionsurvey.

14. As none of the wells were metered, water production was esti-mated by the consultants (para 21). Average water production in December1974 was about 100 IMgd. The difference between the average daily useof 38.7 IMgd and the water production is 61.3 IMgd, and represents public

ANNEX 8Page 8

use, wasted and unaccounted for water. Supplies were inadequate or dis-continuous in some areas in 1974. Had supply been adequate it would haveaffected both production and use, but it is likely to be the former more thanthe latter, since leakage losses and wastage are likely to have increased morethan actual use. Also the studies on water demand were made with available dataand in a relatively short time period. To allow for these factors in thewater demand projections the consultants have assumed an increase of about 10%,bringing unaccounted for water to 70.9 IMgd and total average daily demandto 110 IMgd on the assumption of a continuous supply to the 58% servedpopulation in the service area.

Assumptions in Average Water Demand Projections

15. As recommended in the tariff study it is assumed that the pro-portion of the total population which is served through metered connec-tions, or which will have above average demand equivalent to that ofmetered consumers, will remain approximately at its present level of 8%.The per capita demand of this group is likely to increase to a level ap-proximately equivalent to the domestic demand in developed countries.It is likely to increase to even higher levels unless effective meteringand other waste control programs included in the Phase II project areeffectively carried out.

16. Actual use by directly connected consumers of middle income andin typical residential premises, at present represented by the unmeteredgroup, is not likely to change significantly on a per capita basis in thenear future. However, the extent of water wastage by this group is notknown, but is believed to be high and is likely to continue to be so unlessconsumer education and the recommended selective metering program areundertaken by the new W4ASA management.

17. As the city grows, it is reasonable to assume that additionalsmall commercial or industrial establishments will apply for connectionto the system, and that their average daily use will also increase. Theconsultants have assumed that, during the study period, the number ofcommercial and industrial connections will increase to 2,500 and thattheir average use will increase to 1,000 gallons per day.

18. It is expected that the use of public standposts, sabeels andkatries will not increase and will eventually diminish. It is assumedthat the population using these facilities will remain at their presentlevel until 1981 and will then decrease to half of those levels by 1986.Per capita consumption through these facilities is not expected to changesignificantly. Allowing for future improvement in this situation, forfuture detection and repair of water main leaks and for reduced leakagefrom proposed new mains, it is expected that the total proportion ofwater that is unaccounted for will diminish to about 40% in 1982.

19. On the above bases, projections of water demand have been madefor the period 1974 to 1986 to represent a condition approaching adequatewater supply for 90% of the population in the service area in 1986, i.e.

ANNEX 8Page 9

3,300,000 with an increased degree of control of leakage, meteringeffectiveness and consumer education on reducing wastage. This ambitiousincrease in the water service program will require a considerable buildingup of the management, financial and technical resources of WASA. It hasbeen accepted as an attainable long-term target with some modificationsin the targets for the initial years because of financial constraints,some additional studies made by the WASA ground water cell (see Paragraph23) and time needed to improve management and technical performance.

Maximum Day and Peak-Hour Demand

20. The 1969 Master Plan Report recommended maximum-day/average-day and peak-hour/maximum-day ratios each equal to 1.5. The only dataavailable to check these figures are overall seasonal comparisons. LITWWrecords of metered water consumption for the nine subdivisions of thedistribution system for 1974 show summer/average rates ranging from 0.96to 1.77, with an average of 1.36. This appears to substantiate the maxi-mum-day/average ratio assumption of 1.5. The peak-hour/maximum-day ratioof 1.5 cannot be verified but appears reasonable on the basis of generalexperience. Average day, maximum day and peak hour projections as pro-posed by the consultants are given below. WASA proposes using theseestimates with caution as they are not based upon truly metered productionand consumption. Subsequent work by WASA discussed in the next sectionindicates that the consultants' estimates of production may be somewhathigher than the actual. Nevertheless the consultants' estimates areacceptable for long range planning, and are as follows:

Population Average Demand Maximum Day Demand Peak Hour DemandYear Served IMgd cfs IMgd cfs IMgd cfs

1974 1,475,000 110 204 165 306 247 4591975 1,579,700 111 206 167 310 250 4641976 1,696,000 113 210 169 314 254 4721977 1,819,700 118 219 177 329 265 4921978 1,952,100 123 228 184 342 277 5141979 2,090,400 133 247 199 370 299 5551980 2,238,000 143 266 215 399 322 5981981 2,394,500 155 288 232 431 349 6481982 2,560,600 168 312 252 468 378 7021983 2,736,700 184 341 276 512 414 7691984 2,923,300 202 375 303 563 454 8431985 3,120,000 220 409 330 613 495 9191986 3,300,000 234 434 351 652 526 977

C. WATER PRODUCTION

Daily Water Production (Consultants estimate)

21. At the end of 1974, there were 100 operating wells with a totalinstalled capacity of 242 cusecs in the LIT/WW system:

ANNEX 8Page 10

Rated Pump Total InstalledCapacity (cfs) No. of Wells capacity (cfs)

4.0 30 1202.0 42 841.5 20 301.0 8 8

TOTAL 100 242

22. As none of the wells had an operating meter, it has, therefore,been necessary to estimate water production on the basis of daily hoursof operation, taken in conjunction with estimated pumping rates based onrated pump capacities at estimated system head. In order to enable evalua-tion of the relationship between pumping rates and rated capacities, LITWWcarried out pumping tests at 34 wells. System pressure at each testedpump was estimated by approximately averaging observations of permanentlyinstalled pressure gauges, supplemented where necessary by the use of tem-porary gauges. In spite of the low operating efficiency of a large pro-portion of the older pumps, the fact that the system operating pressuresare often lower than the rated pump head caused the consultants to estimateaverage discharge to be practically equal to the average rated capacity.The total present potential production (with all wells operating 24 hoursper day to meet maximum day demand) may then be assumed to be equal to thetotal rated capacity of all operating wells, 242 cfs or 130 IMgd if the wellsactually discharged water at the rated pump capacity. The average dailyproduction, based on the present 18.5 hour average operating day, would onthese assumptions be about 100 IMgd as shown below:

Installed Number ofDaily Water Production Average Day Maximum Day Capacity WellsDecember 1974 IMgd cfs IMF&d cfs cfs

Consultants EstimatedDemand 110 204 165 306

Consultants Estimateof probable pro-duction:

(1) 18.5 pumping hrs. 100 186(2) 24 pumping hours - - 130 242(3) Installed

capacity 130 242 242 100

Unsatisfied Demand ofserved population: -11% -21%

ANNEX 8Page 11

Daily Water Production (WASA's estimate)

23. WASA proposes to meter all of the 4 cfs tubewells by December 1975and the remainder by June 1976 to control the dangerously excessive dis-charges during periods of low pressure which have been the causes of tubewell failures by sand blowing and pump motors burning out from over loading.A number of wells cannot produce their designed discharge at the rated headsor even at the lower operating heads because of encrustation and requirefrequent acid treatment which however makes only a temporary improvement.WASA is also anxious to preserve the lives of the existing tube wells, foras long as it is economically feasible. If these factors are consideredtogether with the generally poor condition of tube well plant - 40% of allvertical turbine pump motors are rewound annually; 24 out of 30 pumps testedhad deteriorated well beyond the point where repairs were required; staff ofmajor breakdown crews perform work at approximately 16 sites monthly - esti-mated daily water production is believed by WASA to be about 66 IMgd ascalculated below from the ground water cells discharge measurements com-pleted in June 1975 after the consultants had completed the studies on waterproduction. Details of these measurements and information on WASA's tubewells as on June 1975 are shown below. Actual production is probably somewherebetween the two estimates and will be known when the tube well meteringprogram is completed. Until more information becomes available as a resultof the tubewell metering program, the mission agreed with WASA to use thestatistics shown in paragraph 29, particularly WASA's more conservativeestimate of average daily water use.

Average Day Maximum Day NumberDaily Water Production - Discharge 18.5 Discharge - 24 of

June 1975 Hours Pumping Hours Pumping WellsIMgd cfs IMgd cfs

Consultants Estimated Demand 111 206 167 310 -

Ground Water Cells measure-ment of probable production:

(1) 18.5 pumping hours 66 123(2) 24 pumping hours 86 159 -(3) Installed capacity 225 84

Unsatisfied demand of servedpopulation 40% 49%

24. Reduction of well performance due to encrustation and completefailures of tube wells because of sandblowing or very low discharges makingsome uneconomical to operate is a serious problem. For instance, in themonth of July 1975, three wells at Lytton Road, T-Block and E-Block Gulberg3 with a total capacity of about 1.7 cfs had to be retired. However in thesame month, five new 4 cfs wells were commissioned, four equipped with 4cfs pumps and one at the Meherbano Scheme with a 2 cfs pump.

25. Further retirements are planned in 1975/76 of 15 wells at SandaKalam, Raj Garh, Coal Bagh West, Poonch Road, Nawankot, Muslim Colony,

ANNEX 8Page 12

Queens Road, Shadman Colony III, Misri Shah, Mustafabad, Nasir Abad, RamGarh, Ranj Mohal, Nila Gumbad and Mission Road with a total discharge ca-pacity of 8.1 cfs and an installed capacity of 27 cfs. The average dischargecapacity of the remaining wells in June 1976 will be 65.4 IMgd as follows:

Average Day Maximum DayDischarge 18.5 Discharge 24 Installed Pump Number ofhrs. pumping hrs. pumping Capacity WellsIMgd cfs IMgd cfs cfs

Ground Water CellsEst. for June 1975: 66 123 86 159.3 225 84Less Retirements:July 1975 -1.7 -5 -3June 1976 -8.1 -27 -15

Subtotal 61.4 115.3 79.7 149.5 193 66

New capacityadded in July 1975 7.4 13.9 9.6 +18.0 +18 5

TOTAL 68.8 129.2 89.3 167.5 211 71

Less 5% forefficiency loss 65.4 122.7 84.8 159.2 - -

26. During 1975/76 two new wells awaiting pumps at Jaffra Colony andKarim Park II will have 4 cfs pumps installed in them and the 2 cfs pump atMeherbano will be replaced by a 4 cfs pump, increasing installed capacitiesby 10 cusecs. Because of the increasing unsatisfied demand, WASA is com-mencing "Immediate Works" on implementing some of the consultants' recom-mendations beginning with the construction of 6 new wells at Ichara, KamalGunj, Walled City, Samanabad Baghbanpuna and Gulbert areas, adding another24 cfs by June 1976. Net water production in June 1976 will be asfollows:

Daily Water Average Day Maximum DayProduction Discharge 18.5 Discharge 24 Installed Pump Number ofJune 1976 hrs. pumping hrs. pumping Capacity Wells

IMgd cfs IMgd cfs cfs

Discharge/Capacityfrom existing wells 65.4 122.7 84.8 159.2 211 71

New wells 1975/76 14.1 26.2 18.3 34.0 34 8

Total June 1976 79.5 148.9 103.1 193.2 245 79

Consultants esti-mate of 1976demand 113.0 210.0 169.0 314.0

Unsatisfied demand 30% 39%

ANNEX 8Page 13

27. From June 1976 to June 1977 six more 4 cfs wells will be builtunder the immediate works program at Dhelarwal, Simla Hill, Shahdara, GujanPura, Kumhar/Sura and Mohwood Booti areas and wells to be retired will begenerally as shown in the detailed list at page 18 to this Annex.

Annual Water Production

28. For the purposes of calculating annual water production WASA'sestimates are taken to be more realistic and have been used with the fol-lowing assumptions:

(i) For the purpose of the water consumption estimates CDM'sestimate of unaccounted for water is used through 1976 witha small decrease thereafter in anticipation of improvedleakage control. By 1982 it is assumed the unaccountedwater is reduced to 40%, of which leakage and wastage maybe about 30% and other use about 10%. More accurate in-formation will be collected during the project and theseassumptions would be revised accordingly.

(ii) Near the completion of the project period in 1980 about 33%standby capacity is provided for emergencies, maintenanceof wells and pumps and to partially meet maximum day demand.

(iii) An unsatisfied demand of about 14% is assumed in 1982.This unsatisfied demand is expected to be met by even bettercontrol over leakage and wastage which has been assumed tobe 30% in that year.

29. The water production and use statistics discussed above areillustrated at page 19 to this Annex.

D. SEWAGE FLOWS

Population

30. The preparation of the new preliminary sewer system design beganwith the calculation of projected population densities for 1986 for eachof the Union Committees within the study area. The study area was thendivided into approximately three hundred small drainage areas, following,in general, the layout of trunk sewers used in the 1969 Master Plan. Mostof the drainage areas were in more than one Union Committee, and the pro-jected population density for each drainage area was, therefore, in mostcases, an average. The area in acres of each small drainage area wasmeasured and the projected population calculated by multiplying these areasby the 1986 population densities. The population in 1986 was estimatedfrom this area and the average projected 1986 population densities. Certainportions of the study area are expected to have low population densities bythe end of this period. It would be uneconomical to build sanitary sewersin these areas. The areas proposed to be excluded are:

ANNEX 8Page 14

(a) The South Cantonment

(b) Union Committee No. 19, east of the Pakistan Railroad

(c) The area referred to as "Area South of the LahoreMunicipal Corporation Limits," with the exception ofthe area designated for the Lahore Township Scheme.

As a general rule, sewer systems should not be constructed in these areasuntil population densities reach at least 25 persons per acre. If housingor industrial development schemes are proposed for such areas, sanitarysewers may be installed as part of the specific scheme. Until the growthof population justifies sanitary sewers, newly constructed houses may beserved by septic tanks and leaching fields. The total population in thesewered areas of about 80 square miles within WASA's service area is cal-culated by CDM to be 3,549,000 by 1986.

Population Served

31. Based upon a consumer survey (Annex 7, paragraph 2) the consult-ants estimate that about 1/3 of the present population receive direct sewerservice and about 1/3 to 1/4 of the houses in the city are connected to thesewers. WASA has commenced keeping records of new sewer connections andwill make a consumer survey to determine more accurately the number ofsewer connections and population served.

32. Unlike water supply, almost one hundred percent of the 1986 popu-lation in the sewered areas is assumed by the consultants to be served.The people may be served either through direct connections, or through openstreet drains, as many people are now served. The assumption of 100%served is probably optimistic. However, as the locations of the people whowill not be tributary to the sewer system are unknown, it is preferable tocalculate sewer flows for the preliminary design assuming all are tributary.By 1986 more of the existing private schemes are expected to be served withwater supply by WASA. Some big industries and institutions like the canton-ment and railways would be continuing to own and operate their own watersupply schemes, but discharging the waste water into WASA's sewers. Thepopulation served by sewerage in 1986 will be therefore greater than thatserved by water supply (though there will be fewer direct sewer connections)as shown below:

WASA's 1986 1986 1986Service Area Population in Population Per- QuantityArea Served Service Area Served cent IMgd

Sq. miles Sq. miles Nos. Nos.

Water Supply 120 120 3,700,000 3,330,000 90% 234

Sewerage 120 80 3,700,000 3,548,870 96% 187

ANNEX 8Page 15

Sewage Flows

33. None of the existing pumpings stations have devices for measuringincoming sewage flows. There is also no record of the direct and indirectsewer connections, or the total number of channels, or estimate of flowsto the gratings which lead sullage water to the sewers to enable a calcu-lation of the quantity of used water that is now reaching the sewers (toaid future planning). The collection of these statistics is included inthe Phase II project. The consultants, based upon their experience and ob-servations of water use, discussed in part B above, have assumed that, be-cause of considerable irrigation of parks and lawns with piped water insome areas of the city, only about 80% of all the daily water used goes tothe sewers. A crude calculation is then made based upon the projectedaverage 1986 water consumption of 234 IMgd (paragraph 20) and an assumptionmade that approximately 80% of this would be the sewage contribution fromWASA consumers, independently supplied institutions and industries in the80 square miles of served area of the city for a population of about3,549,000 people. This would give an overall per capita flow of 53 gallonsper day. This calculation is acceptable as a criterion for preliminaryengineering, only because of the lack of data and requires field verifica-tion during detailed design. On the basis of this calculation the 1986design sewage flows from the existing and proposed sewerage districts aresummarized below:

Average DailySewerage Population Area Served Sewage FlowDistrict Served (acres) (cfs)

Northern 669,823 6,101 65.74Northeast 235,596 2,773 23.12Central 1,194,549 9,444 117.24South Civil Lines 816,238 12,194 80.11Southwest 284,700 7,978 27.94Southeast 212,616 9,125 20.87Shahdara 135,348 3,891 13.28

TOTAL 3,548,870 51,506 348.32

E. STORM DRAINAGE FLOWS

Rainfall

34. Drainage is a problem in Lahore because of the flat terrain andthe need to pump the storm drainage over the flood protection bund duringhigh flood levels in the Ravi River. In selecting a rainfall for designof stormwater drainage facilities the 1969 lIaster Plan utilized storms ofduration not exceeding 60 minutes, taken from records of the years 1957-1966.The LITWW has since revised this design rainfall data to cover a period ofrecord of 23 years, 1947-1970, continuing, however, to utilize storms of

ANNEX 8Page 16

duration not exceeding 60 minutes. The "5-year" frequency storm used in the1969 Master Plan resulted in stormwater runoffs of much smaller magnitudethan those calculated by the consultants in the revised Master Plan madewith rainfall records covering the 27=year period from 1947 to 1974 obtainedfrom the Meteorological Department. On the basis of these records they de-cided that storms of 6 hours' duration more nearly represented actualrainfall conditions in Lahore. The maximum probable 6-hour rainstorms of2-year and 5-year frequency were therefore derived from the above rainfalldata. Only maximum annual storms were used for this analysis.

Runoff Assumptions

35. Because of various characteristics of a watershed area, not allrain which falls is available for runoff, some being lost as infiltration,some stored in surface depressions, some intercepted by vegetation, etc.The rainfall excess available for runoff after subtraction of losses hasbeen calculated by subtraction of 0.1 inch for the first hour, subsequentlyapplying appropriate runoff coefficients to all 6 hours of rainfall. Therunoff coefficients have been treated as time varying for the first threehours. Because the rainfall excesses for the (various) different timeincrements of a design storm do not reach a particular point simultaneously,a method for calculating the peak runoff is required, and the consultantshave used the Hydrograph method *1s being most appropriate for Lahore.

Design Storm

36. A rough estimate of construction costs of primary drainage chan-nels and pump stations for two-year and five-year storms was made, assumingimmediate construction for the ultimate expected flow conditions. The re-sults indicated channel and pump station construction costs of PRs 28,845,000and PRs 249,962,000 respectively, for the "2-year" storm design, andPRs 42,103,000 and PRs 453,687,000 respectively, for the "5-year" stormdesign. Because of the excessive cost of the "5-year" storm design and therelatively low damage potential from stormwater flooding in the service area,though there will be some inconvenience from temporary flooding of the streets,the preliminary design was prepared on the basis of run off derived fromthe "2-year" frequency storm. A summary of peak flows calculated by theconsultants on these assumptions for the five drainage districts in WASA'sservice area is given below:

PAKISTANAPPRAISAL OF THE IAHORE WASER SUPPLY, 7 tlE AND DRAINAGE PEOJECT - SSE II

PEAK STORMWATER RUNOFF

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Peak Time Base Time Period ofIndividual Cumulative of Incremental of Incrernental Increnlenthl

lndividual Cumulative Tributory Tributary Time of Hydrogroph Hydrograph Excess Rain Total PeakS. From To Length Length Area Area Concentration (Tp) (TO) (D) Runoff RateNo. Sta. Sto. (ft) (ft) (acres) (sc mi) (hrs) (hrs) . (hrs) (hrs) (cusecs)

LOWER CHOTTA RAVI

1 0+000 2+384 2,384 2,384 127 0.20 0.80 0.98 2.62 1 392 2+384 3+884 1,500 3,884 451 0.90 0.93 1.06 2.83 1 1673 3+884 5+034 1,150 5,034 422 1.56 1.03 1.12 2.99 1 2794 5+034 6+064 1,030 6,064 249 1.95 1.13 1.18 3.15 . 1 3355 6+064 10+884 4,820 10,884 1,023 3.55 1.58 1.45 3.87 1 5006 Bund Ravi R. 3,800 3,800 . - 3.55 1.58 1.45 3.87 1 500

UPPER CHOTTA RAVI (Western)

I 0+000 1+000 1,000 1,000 375 0.59 0.68 .0.91 2.43 1 1062 1+000 4+300 3,300 4,300 219 0.93 0.98 1.09 2.91 1 1513 4+300 . 6+250 1,950 6,250 392 1.54 1.17 1.20 3.20 1 2374 6+250 8+050 1,800 8,050 1,356 3.66 1.50 1.40 3.74 1 500

UPPER CHOITA RAVI (E01e n)

I 0o0tx) I1UDOD 1,500 1l,500 743 1.16 2.00 1J0 4.54 1 1382 11+500 17tS00 6,000 17,500 1,161 2.98 2.30 1.88 5.02 1 3453 17+500 23+400 5,900 23,400 1,123 4.73 2.57 2.04 5.45 1 5004 23+400 29t200 5,800 29,200 877 6.13 2.92 2.25 6.01 1 6105 29+200 38+000 8,800 38,000 2,416 9.91 3.63 2.68 7.16 1 8406 38+000 41+500 3,500 41,500 456 10.62 4.05 2.93 7.82 1 7907 Bund Rovi R. 4,120 4,120 - 14.28 4.05 2.93 7.82 1 1,150

MIAN MIR I

I 0+000 20+600 20,600 20,600 1,776 2.78 2.95 2.27 6.06 1 2432 20+600 26+000 5,400 26,000 1,781 5.56 3.47 2.58 6.89 1 4353 26+000 34+700 8,700 34,700 6,251 15.33 3.83 2.80 7.48 1 1,1004 34+700 44i800 10,100 44,800 5,171 23.41 4.27 3.06 8.17 1 ;,590, 44+800 53t200 8,400 53,200 1,893 26.36 4.62 3.27 8.73 1 1,7506 Bund Ravi R. 8,600 8,600 - 26.36 4.62 3.27 8.73 1 1,750.

MIAN MIR II ;) |

1 0+300 19+500 19,500 19,500 2,949 4.61 2.57 2.04 5.45 1 420 HIN2 19-500 26+600 7,100 26,600 2,219 4.95 . 3.10 2.36 6.30 1 410 - o3 26+600 23+700 2,100 28,700 6,147 14.56 3.20 2.42 6.46 1 1,1504 28+700 31+300 2,600 31,300 1,784 17.34 3.32 2.49 6.65 1 i,330

dflI3a1 01 TIll La=S SRTE WPM,1 3SEAGI LI 3212.5 tl - FELON II

wtn.11o ofwt-o. 9 3oaOr A Scltb.i iaotlow Nil. - e 1935

30004 O-Il On g,ye 1(o096 J 1975 TaP of -aug1 US te_l jeU.

lb 0. 33-00.1W *f fl* StliAnal f ft"t 2- REM. w ARKS1

1 50 OtOs 1*000 1~~~~~~~~~950-62 2.0 0.0 19q 120. 0 23.5 ;00 12.702 53 0*7 Garb 76117 T-w 1958-62 0.0 0.12 15 120.0 30.9 25 3.77

10-V Gababo _01 :970 4.0 3.0 1900 203.2 25.9 s6.o 41.6210-33 Tw-s ar.n - 00 1972 4.0 4.0 1980 160.0 - - -

5 8-1 770 Ot ObOpoO 1371 4.0 3.6 i900 120.0 - - -

0 50 Goal0001t 1962. 2.0 0.6 1976 120.0 34.0 6227 12.517 "3 Poo-b Ro1956 2. .2 976 150.0 31.22 57.0 10.24

3 5 hooKt1959 1.5 0.4 1976 120.0 30.7 65.6 314 102 -2,11 CoGon I. 15 0.7 1976 175.0 - --

15-7 OoOd .00 17 40 4.0 900 160 23.3 03.3 31.76 2 11. Lii- o. 1967 7.0 0. 097 166.0 36.0 70.0 9.01 -w'02e Job 0979

7 17-Cl Sod-ol Q22_t 1970 4.0 4. 900 160.0 20.9 60. 57.9*295 -.ooit, ,rooodw 1974.75 2.0 0.0 1958 182.8 - - 0.0

2. 16 I-360rj COon974.75 . 1909 175.9 - 5.36 'no7oo-c3o10 136 016W An000 1970.7 4.7 4.0 1905 196.6 20.3 93.97

22 137 00_0 C y1974.75 4.0 4.0 1909 17. 6.0 . 005612 135 oobS 1974.75 4.0 4.0 1959 165.2 30.9 - go.20213 243 OseOo o.. 1974-75 . - 0907 . . OOrar.O2.

4763 02.r Otd 1905 1.0 7.4 1976 120.0 5Z OoL..1961 20 1.0 1979 :. ~ . '1.13

7 12 -310 aI 0100 0964 1.5 0.~5 9177 00.0 45.3 70.7 -.0.364 11 -w 412, Izo, - II 1964 1. 0. L197 150.0 41.3 57.0 17.1

114 302w. oln c . 00 1967 20 .5 16 120.0 46.9 51.9 02. 01

6 Gonna ~~~~~~~~~ 0 1967 ~~~~~~~ 2.0 00 1976 1(64o 46.9 66.9 24.961967 4 .0 1902 447 1. 50.4

26.27 0102000121 .11 1967 4.0 4 . 9190 i6 73 '34 4.02I-v0s10So - III 1974-75 3.0 3. 1905 191 .5 40. 75 54.0 1oi.6l

"IC 134 Qo__n No. (26.10 loO) 174.73 40 4.0~ 0905 175 .73 43.9 71~.2 97.64

0 . 7110 oOw,-0 961 1.5 7.6 1975 100.0 43.3 62.5 14.23 OtI'd2212 15-, 94 0-01001 02210020 - 000 1960 . - 0 976 12. 39.2

7 96 I.800 ino1.' 00 961 1.5 0.2. 1975 00. 45.7 69.0 77 7020l 19-5O IT, F.C. Blok Oola, - 00 1960 2~.0 .0. 177 44.0 53.6 25.315 90 f000.01 Roo 1960 20 0.0 19177 44. 49.0 049

1'' 1.0.0. Old 1~~~ ~~960 0.0 0.9 1970 - :1 32.3 7. 3'.1171 lo .ro- Too 0973 2. . 977 122 37.9 493 75.4

21.71 3612 CUOwog ~~~~~1972 4.0 4.0 199 65.4 4. 9 1. 55.0~20.l iwwoOo Zoo 196' 4. 3.0 1979 146 430 047 30.69

12 134 SoONer0~~~~~. 10 974-75 4.0 1. 905 170.0 36.5 56.7, 20 07

01 141 ev'.do007, 1974.75 . - 1905 i66.o . S

I lnO70 1969 1.3 0.'. 1976 120.0 34.2 63.a 6.002 4 8001011964. 2. O.7 196 150.0 3.300

7 7 O10rst 72.oo.r 1~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~962. 20 . 1977 150.0 37.7 59.7 Ttal00,00 0965 7. . 970 150.0437.7 7o1

5- 7 .12i90 . . 979 163. 97 165 06- 1797ev TIns'. 1974.27 ..u 4.-~~~~ 1965 135.0 57.27 7

042 71~~~~~0 7100 1~~974.7 . .2 1957002I

7 '5 010 :.t. 1960 7. .2 9097 130.04 13 14 ~ '.

106 I85Go '.. 15 [5 17 120 o5.2 6'.v -23. 4,20,0000 16 . .0, 99 130 o49 6. 02

122 40,w.a 0300, O1aw 10ow 174-75 4.. 190l17. 4.7

7 03 Ot Ga-ol 1-974.7 4. .0 :98 175.25 34.0 39..5 4.07 140 0-40107,1100 1972.9 . : . 1519 91 .3 .44224.7

1 0 .10001 .0 96 .0 0563 1500 60. '9. 1.3

3-27 110PoO- 00 1967 3. .0 1979 1730. 62.302 5.27 2 t.-201 -3o7 0m.o6 1976i7 0 . 1976 150.0 90.75 70. 3.o

76 107 Oow 06 4 . . 1976 1750.0 39

0 314o 0w1955 . . 1979 12. 34.0 33.716 9'47 Olst0* 9545 [-0 . 1919 12009 1.3 66.7 2.3

'5.21 oonh2.001w .0 0~~~~967 '.0 19-6.' 5- 5.0 6 2. 1.7 23

2 25.00 MoohI 0.1w . 00 1~~~ ~~96' 3.01976. 1500 614 250 aIl 3.1 190 . 30 190 16.

02 25.4 00 k2. .001972 . . 978 160.7 8 3.

12 73.0 St 1 19705- 9. M. 1900 120.0 13 3h Bdal00 1957 ,. 3.0 090 14.

0'. .70 000.0000027.11 1~~~~~~970 00 . 01977 7. 33. 900 .

15 121 0.0 8.0 .00 1974.7 2. 3.0 2965 196.' 43 5.' 10316 129C 910 0000. hoa 1942 3. .0 1965 195.2.5 4.4 49

-1 00 025_ 81 5.t . 0960 3 .0 1979 128.0 -3 7.2 8.802.0* lalOot 1~~~~960 19 . o 2. 60 45 5-

413 tr. i 71973 4.0 4. 90 166.o 2. 40 4.54 127 031 00943 40 4.0 19s 19. 95.2 49.15 96.0

7 110 OhOOt POre ThOwnOw 8.8. 3.5 0.5 1937 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~:7 . 3

2 5 0*0 ooo 1976-5 3 05 1976 12. 34.7 09 13 2 0010 5d16 1.5 0 4.5 16 13. 4.7 '. 6

56 .10 Upw 01 - 1960 75 1.0 1979 120.05 50.9 49. 23.2

3 130 So 01 19672 . . 1979 143.0 - 107.13. 0001977P6o097 1:40 0T96 196.0 - 94.7-v. lIo 91002. 1960 0. 12 97 16S5.0 49.33 24o.5 1.6

-4 2 0n 10 940 o.o 3. 195 9.o-17 170 Olga~~., nook -r1974-3 10 40 1980 175.0 -6 6. 073.0

01 133 ol 00 1974-75 4.0 4.0 1963 191.0 3 -2 -91 94.1

17 12 PsOi oronO194.5 so. 1. 1903 196'o - - 11...

'770 2I.019976

28 9.296.003- 447

ANNEX 8

Page 19

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGEAND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE 11

GROWTH OF POPULATION AND WATER PRODUCTIONAND CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS

1 I I I I T

3 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~( Lef t S cale

POPUL~~~~~ATION IN SERVICE AREA

O ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(Left Scale) (0

z

FI 2 POPULATIO~~~~~~~~LTIN SERVED_ 5

:D ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ + (Right Scale) O45

I-

0~0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

40 F

(0WATER PRODUCTION 35 Z(Right Scale)

0 ,,.- " ^ q CONS MPT10 w5 < X~~~~~~~~~0

SEVERALtOLD WELLS

* ~~EXPECTED TO BE RETIRED e

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982YEAR ENDING JUNE 30

World Bank-15511

ANNEX 9Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Objectives, Phasing and Staffing of Lahore Urban Developmentand Traffic Study

A. STUDY OBJECTIVES:

1. The purpose of this study is to initiate:

(a) a sustainable program of improvements in living conditionsfor the lower income groups of Lahore by preparing pilotprojects in neighborhood upgrading and urban expansion;

(b) improvements in traffic conditions in congested parts ofthe street system of central Lahore; and

(c) urban planning activities that will provide a perspectiveframework for sectoral action programs in the MetropolitanArea of Lahore.

2. The neighborhood upgrading project will be concerned with an existingresidential area having a population of about 50,000. The project is to bedesigned for the people now living there, with the following principalobjectives:

(a) to provide adequate municipal and social services, environmentalconditions and community facilities; and

(b) to encourage and facilitate the improvement (or construction)of dwellings and the creation of employment.

The project is to improve living conditions for the majority of residents,preserving significant amounts of investment in existing housing stock andprotecting, to the extent possible, the economic and social fabric of thecommunities. Relocation of residents within the project area is to bekept to the minimum compatible with the above objectives.

3. The urban expansion project is to be an area of new settlement primarilyfor lower income groups, designed for a total population of about 30,000.The principal objectives of the project shall be those given in paragraph 2(a)and (b) above. The project is to consist of site preparation and municipalservices for self-help housing development, with facilities for small-scaleindustries, commercial establishinents and community services.

ANNEX 9Page 2

4. For both the neighborhood upgrading and the urban expansion pro-jects, the Study shall provide:

(a) a phased development program and budget, with recommendationson organizational and financial arrangements for implementation,operation and maintenance;

(b) preliminary engineering designs and detailed cost estimates; and

(c) assistance in implementation.

Since these projects are to serve as pilot operations for a series of similardevelopments in other locations of Greater Lahore, replicability shall be aprimary consideration in project design and organizational and financialstructure.

5. For traffic improvements in the street system of Lahore, the Studyshall provide:

(a) a classification of the existing street network in areas ofcongestion and at points of significant traffic attraction,to define primary street uses (e.g., bus movements, pedestrians,market activities, freight movement, etc.);

(b) recommendations on policies and measures to ensure allocationof road space in accordance with designated uses, to providepriority use for bus movements and to restrain the growth ofprivate vehicle traffic in congested areas;

(c) a phased program and budget for traffic improvements in 1977-85,comprising (i) traffic management schemes on major arterialroutes, (ii) standards for road signs and markings, (iii) a systemof traffic direction, (iv) improvements in street maintenance andlighting;

(d) recommendations on organizational changes and training asnecessary for effective implementation of the proposed programand policies;

(e) preliminary engineering designs, equipment specifications, costestimates and economic analyses of projects to be implementedin 1977-79;

(f) assistance in implementation of these projects and of recommendedorganizational changes and policies; and

(g) training of personnel in responsible Government agencies.

ANNEX 9Page 3

6. Urban planning activities to be supported by this Study shall bethe minimum effort required for dimensioning and coordinating sectoralaction programs that will be consistent with overall economic, demographicand physical growth prospects for the Metropolitan Area of Lahore. Tothis end, the Study shall provide:

(a) updating of the existing data base on population, employment,land-use, economic activity and sectoral developments;

(b) identification of key development issues, with recommendationson the scope of preinvestment studies to be initiated forhighest priority sectors;

(c) analysis of present deficiencies in urban development finance,planning and plan implementation, with recommendations forfiscal, institutional and functional improvements;

(d) forecasts of economic and demographic development in theMetropolitan Area of Lahore to 1985.

This shall be followed by support in subsequent stages of metropolitanplanning and in the coordination of sector programs.

B. STUDY PHASING

7. The study is to be undertaken in three phases as follows:

Phase I - (i) Preparation of a development program for(6 months) pilot projects in (a) slum upgrading and (b)

sites and services development for lowerincome groups;

(ii) preparation of a program for improvementof traffic management with recommendationson policies and organizational changes;and

(iii) initiation of a program of urbanplanning activities.

Phase II - (i) Detailed preparation work for the urban(4 months) pilot projects and for high priority

traffic improvement projects; and

(ii) forecasts of economic and demographicgrowth, and assistance in metropolitanplanning and sector coordination.

ANNEX 9Page 4

Phase III - (i) Assistance in implementation of the(14 months) pilot and traffic improvement projects;

and

(ii) continuing assistance in metropolitanplanning and sector coordination.

ANNE 9Page 5

LAHiORE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND TRAFFIC STUDY

B. TENTATIVE STAFFING

TEAM MEMBERSMnn-Months

Phase: I II III Total

Jrbnn Projects Team

Team Leader (Planner-Engineer) /1 6 ) 13 23Physical Planner 6 I4 2 12Community Org. Specialist 2 2 - 4Housing Specialist 2 2 2 6

Subtotals16 12 17 45

Traffic Management Team

Team Leader (Trans.Planner) /2 6 14 13 23Traffic Ehgineer 6 4 4 14Signal Specialist 2 2 _ 4

Subtotals14 10 17 41

Urban Planning Team

Team Leader (Metropolitan Planner) /1 6 4 13 23rJrbnn Economist 2 2 - 4Industrial Dev./Empl.Specialist 2 2 - 4Water/Sanitation Planner 1 1 - 2Demographer/2tatistician 2 2 - 4

Subtotr]ls

13 11 13 37Staff Common to "bove Teams

Municipal Engineer (Streets,Water, 6 4 2 12Sanitation)

Public Finance Specialist 2 1 - 6-,conomist (Sector and Proj.Anal.) 2 2 _4Education Planner 2 2 - 4rlealth Services Planner 2 2 - 4Legislation/Regulntion Spec. 2 2 - 4

Subtotals16 lo 2 34

TOTALS 59 49 49 157

Unallocated Professional Staff --- oGrand Total --- 1

/1 Either Team Leader Sor Urban Team also to actPs Director for' entire Study.

/2 Also to work on Urban Planning Team.

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT -PHASE 11WATER AND SANITATION AGENCY

ORGANIZATION CHART

| MANAGING I DIRECTOR I

DIORECTOR PLANiNING

CONSULTANTS

DEPUTY MANAGING DIRECTOR DEPUTY MANAGING DIRECTOR DEPUTY MANAGING DIRECTORa ENGINEERING s t OPERATIONS AND TRAINING FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR DIRECTOR DIRECTOR DIRECTORR DIRECTR DIRECTOR DIRECTORDESIGN CONSTRUCTION PROCUREMENT HYDROLOGY OPERATIO NS NCE RE NANCE RATION

JanuarvAND TRAINING MITNC Ran

J..u~ary 1976W.dBk166

£9g £961 TI~ o96i

1'~ 1961 9,i p9L6T

s0q .; ~5paqul4S .T U 45jo a54?1

eqq1 aoI.aJsS u, 3'4550L pax;j 400 ae8ssons paIlrSAaJ USo *~0jia.S UT S4a220

pax-j 4522 058

540AV P5tnTS IfU L43 -0 Pa4R113TEZi ST UAMCTJSU115 J- ~4J -ILL

OlIrOv 0 II1 L ri 0s U 96 Q1 117 61 , 90 IT du 60 vm 57 .i Ni

03I77 7461 163 L 7 06 06e 96 69 ( 77 61 i 9I 1 630AINI lysOs

0 1 0 06 0 0 0 u 0 0 0 77I 0 6 ,AJs AAMS., £77- &1 o I q.1. .0- s*s- q6-sy 9.IS. I e*.t i *o- 9 Ir, I 10 1 2A39 lilAAO A3b0 1 L9U 0 02 DI1. 61* a2- o9- 27 78 I - 7 ( SiI d I b;) A03 AUd0 1 19. S7 0 2 n 71 67- Le- F9. 07 177 1 6. I777AlbU'H ZJ',I1 dl)o0 I00 Ii 0 6 I 9 o 1 9 oUNq ki I9 l0*U 09 O 00O 0 DO 0 0o 0 0 00. 0 %W NI. N6AtLA0 JO 3±9d

920 t, 201 0. Di6 05.0 2,I 90 7o01 0. 677. * e 10. (UI 9N16010 UAroI9(I 7 .

13N AL) NUi4V3Lldd7

o60l viio osI*Io S II TY t 'J 0 Ulu 0e*0 077* 97e' 960 90e 2e 1671 INJId/1J0,D/A4

77 6 9 99 06' 9 e,9 ,,9 r79 9o 901CI I C. o ohIob tq117N0Id686 6% I i OLs i9 ¼ 9* i 9 '0 I S.7 P I1. t"I 0 L. 0% 7809j aiiv

76.6 6' 6 1' L1 I S i¼ 6'9 1L 901 o I S I*. t,% l1'. 0 US0AL Adul76.

9207 tot 019 001 oil 06 90 7774 t 0 677 00- ,2 2 i 3 A7.UJNi IA

07,9 L779 1 ?S 6771 660 1700 063 072, 91 i 71- S ( I . 0- .o.N, AA6 O.7U0N 1 IN

0 0 0 0 0 U 0 0 0. 0 0 S6 I .3N1~jgiU099V 169 f206 " 9771 660 E7 ST 061 0t 077 77. i S. 6 IH7U2NI UILY83dU

616b I 9 109 999 616. 7 L177 931 2.2 v 060 770 7631 601 DI1 16 I 19I

0770 61 L61 991 De01 77 16i L i Se 00 6 1 ol olIJI 91 979 601 6Ibi 901 C1 06OS Le it St i 6 r, U-L4oAo V

Z" 6o i 6? 11 60 6 00e 00 61I L,0 I. I 11 t13 1 3HiL601 L I I 01 06 0 9 377 91 01 i i 6 1 i1 73 1 C £ £ a 0 0 e 0 0 a 0 7 4705910 3F10 0le 9) hi oI 101 11 1 9 09 I6 S o 1 LI dj49dd AOIONA1 12 9~1 I 9 t? ,o37 101 011 001 9L It 0 S 0 0 77 i 1 SAId77177

61912 kiss I 9711 91 01 996 61V.9 067? 7761 990 i 091 13 601 69i]VU

10 61 11I 91 v7I 3 I 1I1 6 ST 22 0 1 9t 2 0I01 077 10 773 I 1 6 L 9 0 0 0 71 U Ai)077,d(7f2 3 1 I 0 1 1 I I I I 0 0 90393 91 sO91 Si DI1 01 IT 01 6 9 9 i i 2 631779 glit77,H3 *'Uo

9 9 L. L 9 S 6 0 0 74 0 U SI7JVINM 00.113.060 622 600 I6 6 91 7761 913 903 9 9 93t 93 9 1 61I 077777 771109f21 1903 926 0619 7796 S 961i 06 693 it I 61 Of .S 9o Is (j36AIA1950777v

OS? 6120 t 6771 '.1 7711 776 IL 1S 677 10 Se 9 93I UAdzl]IH-83i11

GfN3A3V.lb 3.0361dt

U1 Nn0' tONO(N3 9773A

1961 20661 3963 0W66 6160 W161 1161 94.61 SW.0 77161 14.i 61 0163 616

9i6l10'1 "VW7 Gjad3bd 160d3b

iGv)JIb0A 1770~NVNIAA3N393V 61llm 36014'1 * NYISZ9Wd

11 XaNE

ANX 12

PAK1STAN - LAmORE WATER AGENCYFINANCIAL FORECAST

REPORT PREPARED MAR 30, 1976

t971 t972 1973 1974 1979 1976 1977 1978 1979 M98 190 1981 1982 1983101'AL

YEAR ENDING JUN 30

FUNDS FLnwSTAIFMFNTS

HS 1.. T74lUSANnS

tNIERNAL SnURCES-NFT .I

1C pFFORt IN .2 *1o .14 38 142 152 234 289 348 993 523 697 84n

IF)PFCI TInN 'N7 In 4 19 22 25 37 5I Pa 124 166 431 ¶97 2t9 24i1...... ....... , ....... ...... ..... ....... ........ ..... ,,, _w ....... w-_--w . .... _"--_--= ....... ....... ...... .......

TnIAL a8 4 P. 8 63 I79 2nq 288 413 S14 1424 720 916 10811

'IPFNAT¶fNAi_ RE,G1I! I4 N M NIVS

-r'RKINrD CAPITTL -19 -37 251 .20 .25 104 -33 -266 -15 265 .49 -140 -69 -78fER' SF4V cE a 11 50 62 74 85 1s 2 105 Ill 120 446 365 728 751nTHER C6in lnol 3 93 20 to -21 .? -226 - ,b -26 104 -26 *26 -26

....... ....... ....... ....... ...... ....... .... .... ..... .... ...... ....... ........ .......- "--Z -TnTAI a9 -23 294 62 67 I6b 43 -187 70 367 293 199 633 646

_--- *wz,....... ...... ...... ....... ,, .... .. ,._*- ,,, .. ..... ........ .. .... .......- ....... ....... ..... .......- ....... _---N4T AVAIl hALE-

FRII4 nPERATIONS .81 27 1270 -54 4 11 1hh 47s 3a3 147 1131 521 283 't34

C (1STR iCTTf1NRQF9lIRF-F'NTS

-ONG(II RG WRKS In4 t39 231 139 431 60o 0 0 0 0 0 0 n PRnlP SEn pn 0J II O a 0 0 SOP ¶704 1789 981 4ha2 o o1`l'OIIRF PRnJFCT o o n 0 o 0 n) 0 0 640 6no 8no 80a0 aniPHFn 48 Nr 1 t n 4 0 0 o 0 30n 15In 150 0 600 0 0 o

TIlTIA ¶04 ¶39 231 139 431 600o 80P 1854 j939 ¶181 5782 80n ann1 Iflo._-......... ....... .......... .......... ....... ....... ..... .. . _--........_* ....... .......... _ .......... .. ........ _ -_* ....... .......... - -^-ALANCl` Tn FTNANCOF IRS 1t2 501 93 435 s9 6h47 ¶379 1596 1034 46s1 279 S17 566

FINANCEP RV$VTRST 738/SIn3 1 7 32 204 36 0 o AI 0 0 0 o 0 o 11lt n r0VT I nAN 1¶42 8n 147 17S 4at 0 0 0 0 0 0 o n 'JF6 GOVT LrnAN n 0 0 0 0 600 2n.1 770 814 Jh7 2051 0 0 l1PRnPOSFP Trn Cw n n 0 0 o 0 274 920 967 314 2475 0 0 (l1FUT r(IVT PHASE 01! 0I I 0 0 0 0 AI 0 0 0 n 400 40ni 90niFUrT 1O0T PHASE TV 41 0 0 0 0 0n n a 0 0 II ILnA LOAN -12 (l 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 °1 4r;4AN S PWP I 1) 150 -18 4 14 ' 0 0 0 0 0 (l ilr4RANTS PHF1/LnA/LIN 0 II 0 0 32 3 188 164 IS8 n 5h 6 0 0

7._ -77; - -;; '- _7 - ^- _- - - - *- -_-- -0 -0 "w - -- _- ;- ow, , .. , b@ TOTAL 147 ' 5Z 193 446 614 698 0854 1939 58l 5032 400 40n So

SiURPLUS(nFFICITI(IF Filunq 11 ) 0 0 0 5 16 475 343 -4S3 31 121 -t117 *66ArcI0lit A0Fn II 0 0 o I 2as i¶ "1h6 859 406 406 527 411 3*44

1,E T AVA11ARLF:FRI1M OPFOATIONS/

:CnNsiRIrVynN RFO4 -78 A 9 -It7 .39 .* 2 71 2h 18 12 ? bs 35 3-PLA8

T IN. nPFR-% - A.4 4,3 -3t 7 5. 7 -, 4 0.6 6 . 11.9 5 8 2 0 .7 6. 2 3, 1 4,3)ERT Sl-IRPVe CrIVER I n 0 4 0 S .I .9 2. 1 P 2 7 3/ 4 ,0 3,2 2.0 1 3 1 .4

ANNEX 13PAKISTAN - LAH*rRE WATER AGENCYFIIANCIAL FORFCA3T

REPORT PREPARED MAR 30, 1976

1t11 1972 1973 1974 1979 1976 1977 1978 1q79 1980 1981 19R2 1983

YEAR ENPTN6 JUN 30

8ALANCF SIEf1TS

P8S 100 Twr'USANDS

ASSF TS

;L-:ZJTtN nPFRATTr73 4401 h34 t8t3 9211 1 128 J838 27n4 3999 5891 7377 8367 91h7 10067IESSt n FPqfr TATTlN 38 92 71 9S 11 Ft 155 2t2 296 4021 586 783 1002 1242

NFT PLANT 402 S82 7A2 854t 1001) 1683 2402 3699 54i7 6791 7584 8165 a825

.O1PK IN PRlOgRESS 225 60I 1272 215 467 347 289 8S2 R9S 590 400 400 500____ ___ ._......_ ._ ...... w.._____. ._.______...... ....... ....... .......... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... .......Tl!TAL 6h7 742 954 1071 2467 2030 2781 4952 h 662 7381 7984 RSb5 9325

LPO8PFNT OSSFTS-CASsl ANn RANKS

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fWOO[t 2hn 239 36o8 301 324 432 712 2028 102S 172e 2098 240s 2833

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)FrT/DFRT P,; FOUlTY 71) 7S 74 80 84 a3 78 Ar. 81 79 76 74 71I E 1/f IItTV 2,3 3.11 2,8 4 0 5.1 .0 3.6 4.! 4.2 3.7 3.? 2 ,8 ,4ruQR'NT PATTn S3. 2 3 2, 9 2.8 2.7 3,6 2.4 2.n 2.5 3.4 2 8 2.3 1.7RErETV4RLFS/REv X 92 119 8e 821 2 73 68 Ss 40 29 1s 7 4qfAC F T v APFnAYs 29S 393 SS5 290 29S 271 246 199 144 105 54 26 1SNFTX/GR) S P ANT 91 92 92 90 99 92 92 03 93 92 91 89 898PLANT INr8FASF X 3 44 15 it 1R 64 47 4P 47 25 13 10 10

ANNEX 14Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE

LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT - PHASE II

Assumptions for Financial Projections

A. INCOME STATEMENTS

Operating Revenues

1. Water - metered revenue is based upon the proposed tariff and apolicy of selective metering which would include commercial, industrial andlarge residential consumers so that the present ratio of 8% of meteredconsumers to total consumers will be at least maintained. The averageconsumption of metered connections is estimated by CDM to be about 273,000gallons in FY1977 with a small increase in each subsequent year. WASAhave estimated a more conservative figure of 257,000 gallons per year andthis has been used throughout.

2. Revenue from water - unmetered is based upon the proposed tariffand WASA's estimates of the new connections which will be made in the oldand newly served areas and the total Annual Rental Value (ARV) upon whichcharges can be made for these and the old connections.

3. The sewer rate is a share of the property tax collected by theProvincial Department of Excise and Taxation and paid over to WASA. Theshare paid to WASA was increased in FY1975 and has been increased againin FY1976. The amount projected has been calculated by WASA after discus-sions with the Excise and Taxation Department (see para 6.10 of report).

4. Revenue from meter rentals is calculated on rates of charge in theproposed tariff which are sufficient to amortize the cost of the meter overten years.

5. Connection charges are calculated at PRs 50.00 for each newconnection forecast for each year.

6. The basis for surcharge revenue remains as before at 10% of amountsthat are not paid by the due date.

7. Other includes receipts for sales of sullage, license and other fees,miscellaneous income, and an LMC contribution which is a sum calculated in

ANNEX 14Page 2

respect of municipal firehydrants, schools, latrines etc. The charges areextremely low for the services provided and appropriate charges are to benegotiated between LMC and WASA. For projection purposes the presentcalculated charge has been used.

8. Increases in charges of about 30% in FY 1979, 20% in FY 1981 and10% in FY 1983 have been estimated to keep pace with inflation and the costof the improved services.

Operating Expenses

9. Salaries have been assumed to increase at 5% per year for newemployees to operate the larger facilities and 10% a year for improvedsalary scales, increments and general escalation.

10. Energy power has been calculated for water upon the number oftubewells in service with one third on standby. The charges are based ona two part tariff of a fixed charge for the installed load and a unitcharge for units consumed during an 18.5 hour pumping day. Escalation ofprice has been calculated at 15% in FY1976 and 5% in each year from FY1978onwards.

11. Energy gas has been calculated on the same physical basis as fortubewells and the price escalation has been taken at 5% per year.

12. Repairs and Maintenance (R & M) have been running at an averageof about 1.5% of gross assets in service. with the value of the new assetsto be built a level of 1.5% will provide sufficient funds for improvementsin maintenance.

13. Other expenses are for office costs and other employees benefitsand are based on 20% of payroll costs.

14., The provision for bad debts is calculated at 15% of total billingsinitially, reducing to 10% in FY1980 and 5% in FY1982. The rate of collec-tions, at present only 30%, of annual billings is expected to improve withthe introduction of the new billing and collection system and to reach 85%by FY1982. During negotiations targets for improvements in collections werediscussed and set. At the end of FY1975 net accounts receivable wereabout one and one-third times that year's billing and the level of improve-ment to be expected will be a reduction to 100% in FY1977, to 60% in FY1979,to 20% in FY1981 and to 15% thereafter (See para 6.19 of report).

ANNEX 14Page 3

15. Depreciation - is based upon percentages as follows:

Percentage

Land NILWater and Sewer Pipelines 2Buildings 2Tubewells 5Pumping Stations 6.7Machinery and Equipment 10Office furniture fixturesand fittings 10

Vehicles 20

These average about 2-1/2% of fixed assets so this percentage has beenused for projection purposes.

B. FUNDS FLOW STATEMENTS

16. Future Project. This has been projected to start in FY1980,the year in which the Phase II project will be completed. It is basedupon the ten year work program.

17. Future Loans are projected from FY1981 and are not expected toexceed 50% of the future investment program. It is assumed that thebalance will come from internal cash generation.

C. BALANCE SHEETS

18. The capitalization of Plant in Operation each year is 100% of workin progress brought forward from the previous year plus 50% of the newwork carried out during the year leaving 50% of the new work as work inprogress.

19. Accounts Receivable are projected on an improving collec-Lions basis and after deduction of the accumulated provisions for baddebts (See para 14 above and para 6.19 of the report).

20. Inventories are projected on the assumption that the total valueof stores issued will be 70% of annual maintenance expenses and that thestores inventory at the end of the year will be proportionate to the valueof stores issued. The proportion is also expected to reduce in futureyears as follows:

ANNEX 14Page 4

FY 1977 Value of Inventory = 1.50 x annual stores issuesFY 1978 and FY 1979 " " " = 1.25 x annual stores issues

FY 1980 to FY 1983 f " " = 1.00 x annual stores issues

21. Receivables and Advances have been projected at an escalationfactor of 10% from the base year FY1976.

22. Accounts Payable are projected as one month's total operatingexpenses plus one half of the year end work in progress. It is assumedthat at the end of the year, two months' construction work is still to bepaid for plus 10% retention on the previous ten months -- one month -- a

total of three months which is one half of the year end work in progress(see para 18).

23. Deposits and others are escalated at 10% a year from a base ofFY1976.

April 1976

Assun.ptions for Financial Projections

Statistics Includin Bases for Income Projections

Year to June 30 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

New Water Connections Unmetered 8954 12485 10000 25000 25000 4030O 35000 20000 25030Metered 661 902 1900 1600 15oo 14oo 16oo 2500 2800Total 91 7 1 1900 2 655-0 71200 3660 2250 770

Total Water Connections Unmetered 103000 114000 125000 142.00 167500 200000 237500 267500 287500(midpoint of year) Metered 8265 9003 10400 12200 13700 15200 16700 18700 21400Total 1126 123000 13540 154700 181200 215200 254200 2200 303900

Total Water Coonections Unmetered 107515 120000 130000 155000 180030 220000 255000 275000 300000(year end) Metered 8598 9500 11400 13000 145oo 15900 17500 20000 22300

Total 116113 1293J6 141400 1600 194500 235900 272500 295000 322800

AII EX.1

Page 1

"IfSTANi

APPRAISAL OF THE LAHORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AIM DRAINAGE PROJECT - PiASE II

Schedule of C)urrent Charges(Effective Januarx 1, 1975)

?-tes

I. 1AZZ21 r.T?LS

A. Domestic Ferrule Rzates. (1) 1/4" Ferrule PRs. 12 - per monthfor up to tuo taps.

(2) 3/8" Ferrule PRs. 24 - per monthfor up to two taps.

(3) 1/2" Ferrule PRs. 32 - per monthfor up to tro taps.

(4) 3 /41r Ferrule PRs. 48 - per monthfor up to tuo taps.

(5) 11? Ferrule PRs. 64 - per monthfor up to tuJo taps.

Note (i) For clauses (1) to (5), for everyadditional tap PRs. 1 - per month

Jote (ii) Alternative for clauses (1) to (5),20,j of annual rental value ofbuilding, wihichever is higher, subjectto a minimum Of PRs. 144 - per annum

3. oamaercial Flat Dates. (1) 1atries, Tanneries, Lodging Houses,Stables, Dairies, etc.PRs. 48 - per month

(2) HIamas. PRs. 30 - per month per Hamam

C. iletered Rate Per i;onth (1) Domestic PRs. 2 - per 1,000 Gallons(2) ConwD6rcial and industrial.

P Rs. 3 -'er 1,000 Gallons

Hote: - In the event of meters having beentampered or damaged or having beccnedefective otherzise, the charge Tiallbe made on the basis of annualrental value.

(3) Iete- 7ent 'er month

-:eter Sze.2- ) ete rent less

3/4" PRs. 3- ) than 15 days1" PRs. 5- ) omitted and1 1/2 PRs. 7- ) above 15 dayz2" PRs. 10- ) All nonth

-ITFPRs. 20-)

AT1TTEX 1i5Page 2

D. R?eliaious and Chari'table Half the domestic rate.Institutions

7. Surcharge for Late P-ayment 10C surcharge if iDamment is not madeby the due date specified in the bill.

II TjTUr X TATZP. SUPPI7 To corporate bodies such as CantonmentBoard,5Ps. 1.50 per 1,000 gallons.

III. BULK SEWER RATES For corporate bodies such as CantonmentBoard PRs. 200 per acre,

For factories PRs. 400 per acre.

January 1976

ANNEX 16Page 1

PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF THE LATIORE WATER SUPPLY, SEWERAGE AND DRAINAGE PROJECT

PHASE II

Schedule of Charges Proposedfrom January 1, 1977

ITfI RATES

1. WATER RATESARV Monthly Rate

A. Unmetered (i) 1-400 1Rs 12(ii) 401-720 14

(iii) 721-1000 20(iv) 101-1500 25(v) above 1500 Annual rate 20% of ARV.

B. Metered Rates PRs. 3.00 per 1000 gallonSubject to a minimum of:

Size of Meter Per Quarter

1/2" 1053/41! 2101I 350

over 11? 700

C. Meter Rent per quarter 1/2" 123/4bY 131l" 301 112 2 422"1 60371 120

D. Connection Fee PBs. 50 per connection

E. Secu.rity Deposit PRs. 50 per connection

F. Religious and Charitable Insbitutions Free

G. Public Stand Post and Sabeels Free

H. Cattle Trough Free

ANNEX 16Page 2

2. OTHER CHARGES

A. Sewer connection fee PRs. 100 per connection

B. Sullage Sales PRs 50.00 per bigah per year.

3. WATER RESOURCES

A. All abstractions of water Annual license fee - PRs 100:00by private persons or privatebodies.

B. New abstractions of water by Annual charge - PRs. 10,000private persons or private per cusec installed capacitybodies. or proportionately

4. A surcharge of 10% will be imposed on all accountswnich are not paid by the due date.

March 1976

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