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Pathways to Sustainable Energy Project

Project Kick-off and Scenario Scoping14 June 2017, Astana

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• Project Overview

• Modeling Approach, Models

• Review: Storylines, Scenarios and Target Definition

Agenda

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Project Overview

• Objectives and approach

• Implementation phases

• Stakeholder engagement

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Timeframe: May 2017 – Dec 2018

Expected accomplishments (1) Modelling of Sustainable Energy ScenariosEnhanced understanding of the UNECE member States of alternative pathways for transitions to a sustainable energy future. (2) Conceptualisation of an early-warning systemEnhanced knowledge of member States to apply early-warning indicators and a mechanism to track implementation of national contributions towards reaching common goals. (3) Policy Dialogue and Formulation of Adaptive Policy PathwaysIncreased capacities of national energy ministries to develop, implement and track national sustainable energy strategies.

Key deliverables Energy scenarios modeled based on UNECE-SSP merged storylines Definition of adaptive policy pathways Development of policy and technology options / technology portfolio, roadmap KPIs to conceptualize early-warning system to track progress 2-4 energy expert workshops to define and discuss policy options High-level policy dialogue planned for 2018

Project Overview

Pathways to Sustainable Energy

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Project Stakeholders

Pathways to Sustainable Energy

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UNECE Region

Sub-regional Clusters

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Global Modelling

Regional subsets

North America

Western Europe

Central and Eastern Europe

Southeast Europe

Caucasus

See countries in each cluster here:

http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/message-globiom/message_globiom/overview/spatial.html

Central Asia

Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova

Russian Federation

Turkey

Israel

UNECE

Overall project coordination

Policy dialogues

Project steering (CSE)

IIASA

World Model (MESSAGE)

Regional and thematical zoom-ins

PNNL

World Model (GCAM)

Regional and thematical zoom-ins

Fraunhofer

Full technology portfolio survey

Technological zoom-in for system integration technologies

International coordination of modelers

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Project Outline

Division of Work

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Trends

Sustainable Energy Storylines

- Definition of trends & uncertainties

- Narrative Descriptions

Research Questions

(Case Studies, Deep Dives)

- Definition of particular thematic or sub-regional aspects, policies

- Definition of research questions

Technology Assessment

- Trends and cost evaluations for sustainable energy technology options

Energy Policies Research- Current policies

- Other polices (NDCs, energy related)

Analysis

Modell preparation

- Definition of Input Assumptions (drivers) & Indicators (energy

security, climate, quality of life, etc.)

- Adaptation of SSP datasets based on (new) data requirements

- Quantfication of SE target

- Model development / finalisation

Modelling / Assessment

- Energy scenarios: energy supply, demand, technology mix, costs,

climate budget, etc.

- Modelling / testing of policy options

- Topical / Sub-regional deep dives

Policy options

- 2-3 Policy energy expert workshops

Results

Adaptive Policy Pathways

- Policy Briefs

- Policy dialogues

Case Studies / Deep Dives Results

- 3-5 selected SE Scenarios

Technology Pathways

Portfolio, Roadmap

Early-Warning System

- Defining KPIs

- Concept development

Engagement of Energy Expert Community

• Storylines

• Technology trends

• Policies

• Defining assumptions / indicators

• Developing policy options

• Policy energy expert workshops

• Outreach

• Policy dialogues

May 2017 – Dec 2017 June 2017 – Oct 2018 Nov 2017 – Dec 2018

Pathways to Sustainable Energy

Project Implementation Phases

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Project Timeline

Engagement with the Expert Community

May 2017 Dec 2018

Project Update session at CSE

Geneva, Sep 2017

Policy Dialogue at CSE

Discuss policy options & pathways

Geneva, Sep 2018

Kick-off & Expert Workshop at 8th IFESD

Astana, Jun 2017

Expert Workshop at 9th IFESD

Derive / discuss policy options / pathways

Ukraine, Q3 2018High-level Political Dialogue

Russia (tbc), Q1 (2019)

Expert Workshop - tbc

Discuss technology & policy options

tbd, Q1 2018

CSE = Committee on Sustainable Energy

IFESD = Internat. Forum on Energy for Sust. Dev.

Modeler Kick-off Workshop

Oberhausen, May 2017

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Modeling Approach, Models

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Project Outline

Technological Portfolio and Zoom-In (2017)

Technology Portfolio

• Nuclear energy, hard/soft coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, wind, solar,

CCS/ CDR, energy efficiency technologies in final energy uses etc.

• Description of state of the art

• Key parameters (Fuel costs, Capex, Efficiency (energy output/input)

Data input:

• Literature (meta-analysis); comparison of results with data used in

models

Data output:

• Market share, global / regional energy demand & consumption, CO2

emissions

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Project Outline

Technological Portfolio and Zoom-In (2017)

Technology Zoom-In• Energy Storage, Power2X, CCS / CDR technologies Energy Efficiency

Data input:

• Literature (meta-analysis); comparison of results with data used in models

Data Output:

• State of the art (Power2X, storage)

• Overview on CCS/CDR technologies & energy efficiency potentials by sectors:

buildings, industry, appliances, transport

• Expected development of currently available technologies plus cutting edge

technologies with the potential to play a significant role in future energy systems

• Technological relevance: regional case studies, global/regional technology

demand, market penetration/spatial share of technologies

• Technology cost: Current and future cost figures, Capex evolution, Development

of marginal abatement cost curves

Disaggregation of the FSU region into Russian Federation, Central Asia, Caucasus and sub-region Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.

a) Base year energy flows and generation mix calibration

b) Add and aggregate current and expected national policies

c) Make sub-regions consistent with SSP2 scenario (2015-2050/2100)

• Update technology portfolio to reflect imminent deep technology dives (input Fraunhofer) for all 14 IIASA model regions

• Ensure consistency/harmonization of technology and scenario assumption among PNNL/IIASA & Fraunhofer

• Modelling and testing of ‘Research Questions’

• Testing adaptive policy pathways as well as KPIs

• Present to, and discuss with, UNECE and stakeholders, initial set of scenario outcomes (1st Q 2018)

• Based on feedback received refine workplan for 201813

Project Outline

Modelling Approach: 2017

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MESSAGE is a dynamic, multi-period optimization model.

It is a bottom-up systems engineering model designed for medium- to long-term energy system planning, energy policy analysis, and scenario development.

MESSAGE currently features 11 world regions covering the entire globe.

It is a scenario-oriented energy system model; scenarios are developed through minimizing model total discounted energy system costs under a set of engineering and user defined constraints imposed on the energy system.

Future demands for energy services is one of the key scenario inputs. MESSAGE provides information on the utilization of domestic resources, energy imports & exports, investment requirements, technologies selected, pollutant emissions, etc.

It informs the user if policies imposed on the model are ‘technically’ and financially feasible (and if, at what costs and trade-offs).

The model takes into account existing installations, their vintage and retirement schedules. The optimisation process, then determines the need for new generating capacity and the investment requirements

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MESSAGE - Model for Energy Supply System

Alternatives & their General Environmental Impacts

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MESSAGE

As part of IIASA’s Integrated Assessment Framework

Slides: IIASA

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Slides: IIASAMESSAGE

Inputs and Outputs

Mathematical Formulation behind MESSAGE:

http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/message-globiom/message_globiom/annex/message/index.html

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GCAM - The Global Change Assessment

Modeling FrameworkWhat is the Global Change Assessment

Model (GCAM)?

283 Land Regions

32 Energy Economy

Regions

233 Water Basins

global&integrated&assessment&model&

Economic,&Energy,&Land4use,&Water,& &Climate& &

wiki.umd.edu/gcam&

Energy,(climate,(and(other(policies(

Socioeconomic(development(

Technology(and(resource(developments(

Climate(impacts(and(adapta9on(

GCAM: a global integrated assessment model

Links economic, energy, land use, water, and

climate systems

32 geopolitical regions

283 land-use regions

233 water basins

Runs through 2100 in 5-year time steps

Emissions of 24 GHGs and short-lived species

Used to analyze consequences of

interdependencies between human and Earth

systems

Energy, climate, and other policies

Socioeconomic development

Technology and resource changes

Climate impacts and adaptation

Community model

Developed and housed at the Joint Global Change

Research Institute, research collaborationsSlides: PNNL

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GCAM

Inputs and Outputs

Scenario Assumptions

• Socioeconomic development

• Energy, land use, and water technologies

• Policies

• Resources

Inputs and Output in IA Models

Scenario&Outputs&

Prices and production quantities:

Energy sectors

Transportation Primary energy resources Agricultural products

Land use Crops (by type) Pasture Unmanaged

Water demand Raw demand by sector Response to scarcity

Greenhouse gases

Economic indicators Economic losses Income transfer

Scenario&Assump@ons&

Socioeconomic assumptions

Energy, land use, and

water technologies

Policies

Resources

Scenario Outputs

Prices, quantities

Energy production

Agricultural demand and

production

Land use

Crop (by type)

Pasture

Forest

Unmanaged

Water demand

Greenhouse gas emissions

Economic indicators

Income transfer

Policy costsSlides: PNNL

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National energy statistics, energy and electricity balances (if different from IEA)

Current national policies (energy, environment, NDCs, other relevant development policies)

(Large) energy projects under construction, advanced planning

A contact person for potential future interaction

please send to lisa.Tinschert@unece.org

Data Inputs from countries

Seeking support

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Review: Storylines, Scenarios, and Target Definition

• UNECE Sustainable Energy Storylines

• Key challenges of defining Sustainable Energy

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Visionary Storylines (narratives)

Overview

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Visionary Storylines (narratives)

DRAFT Summaries

AInnovative but less cooperative

Technology development and innovation in home markets, with service-

based business models and decarbonisation of fossil fuels and system-

wide efficiency.

BInnovative, collaborative and green

Service-based business models with emergence of energy “prosumers”,

increased decentralisation, increased trade and interconnection,

aggressive application of innovative low-carbon technologies.

CFocusing inward: Energy independence fueled by fossil energy

Strong acceleration of energy efficiency measures from source to use;

focus on domestic energy sources and energy independency / security.

DThe conservatives: Progress step by step

Sustained high penetration of fossil fuels in the energy system with

increased application of decarbonisation approaches based on

technology transfer; extension of networks and collaboration

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Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)

Overview

• 2007-2013:

Development of narrative

socio‐economic scenarios, to

derive emissions scenarios

without and with climate policies

• Purpose:

Integrated analysis of future

climate impacts, vulnerabilities,

adaptation, and mitigation

• 2013-2016:

Quantified datasets for

Population and GDP Growth,

Urbanisation

Full SSP database available online:

https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome

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SSP2: Middle of the Road

Overview

• SSP2 does not imply a simple extrapolation of recent experience, but rather a development pathway that is consistent with typical patterns of historical experience observed over the past century Social, economic, and technological trends follow historical patterns:

• Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century;

• Moderate population growth, persisting income inequality

• Most economies are politically stable; Globally connected markets function imperfectly. Medium economic growth

• Slow progress in achieving SDGs

• Environmental systems degrade, overall resource & energy intensity declines.

• Even though fossil fuel dependency decreases slowly, there is no reluctance to use unconventional fossil resources.

• Technological progress continues without major slowdowns or accelerations.

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Energy Security

Sustainable

Energy

Quality of Life Environmental

Sustainability

• Supply to meet

demand (but

differing

conceptualisations)

• …

• Air pollution

control

• Climate

commitments

• …

• Energy

affordability

• …

Target Definition: Sustainable Energy

Draft: 3 Components

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Building the Scenarios, based on SSP2

Drivers (Inputs)

Meta Drivers (underlying characteristics of energy system)

International Cooperation (degree of openness to trade)

Innovation (technology costs development, changes in efficiency, business models)

Drivers (Range definitions) Energy efficiency (end-use, conversion)

Energy Storage

Electric Vehicles

Abundance of fossil fuels (all types), extraction costs

CCS (incl. BECCS)

Power to X (efficiency, CapEx)

Nuclear

Renewable energies (BM, non-BM, system integration, CapEx, efficiency)

Policies Subsidies (carbon price, taxes, etc. )

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Building the Scenarios, based on SSP2

Indicators (Outputs)

Indicators Final energy intensity (SDG7)

Carbon intensity (SDG13)

Carbon budget (temperature change)

Energy prices

Share of RE (SDG7)

Investment requirements (SDG7)

Energy imports and exports

Food prices / consumption (SDG2)

Energy access (energy use?) (SDG7)

Water use of energy sector (SDG6)

Pollutants (SDG9)

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Focal question: How can countries attain sustainable energy?

• Role of FF in a future sustainable energy system

• Methane leakage from extraction, transmission, distribution

• Competitiveness of RE compared to FF; synergies of RE & FF; RE grid-

integration; RE and Gas

• Energy efficiency policies as enabler for other policies / holistic approach

• Investment requirements to attain certain level of RE, changing of investment

patterns for transition towards SE system

• Quantum leap of technologies: Technologies as game changer

• Sub-regional topics to be defined

• Others

DRAFT Research Questions

Thematical / Sub-regional Case Studies & Deep Dives

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Elisabeth Tinschert, Stefanie Held

Lisa.Tinschert@unece.org, stefanie.held@unece.org

Sustainable Energy Division

UNECE

Date 14 I 07 I 2017, Astana

Thank you!