pencom alternate assets seminar
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A. C. A. PENCOM ALTERNATE ASSETS SEMINAR. SETTING THE TONE. By: Dick Kramer. March 5, 2008. Outline. Perspective and Purpose Current Situation Economic Outlook Investment Climate Pension Reform Evaluation Future Potential and Objectives The Way Forward. Perspective and Purpose. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
PENCOMALTERNATE ASSETS SEMINAR
SETTING THE TONE
March 5, 2008
By: Dick Kramer
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Outline
Perspective and Purpose Current Situation
Economic Outlook Investment Climate Pension Reform Evaluation
Future Potential and Objectives The Way Forward
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Perspective and Purpose Buoyant Nigerian economy against backdrop of
global slowdown Economic vulnerability due to-
Dependence on petroleum Major investment barriers Potential loss of momentum Risk of market bubble/meltdown
High potential for pension reform success But
Early in learning curve Largely undiversified Vulnerable to market volatility
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Today’s Focus
Based on global experiences, explore asset diversification Real estate Infrastructure Bond markets Private equity Global investments
Search for viable solutions while minimizing risks
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Current Outlook
Global outlook uncertain with markets highly volatile US slowdown vs. strong emerging market growth Sub prime loans as the trigger Commodity boom due to supply/demand
imbalance Nigeria largely insulated but still vulnerable
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Investment Climate (Nigeria)
Good, bad and ugly – mixed scene Positive
Macro economic management Major reforms including pensions Opening the playing field – such as
telecommunications Financial sector consolidation Heightened foreign interest Focus on rule of law
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Investment Climate
Good, bad and ugly – mixed scene Mixed
Teleguided privatization followed by several reversals
Significant infrastructure investment with mixed results
Limited attempts to improve investment climate and ease of doing business in Nigeria
Tendency towards – ready/fire/aim
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Investment Climate
Good, bad and ugly – mixed scene Negative
Niger Delta Power and infrastructure shortfalls Political transition delays Protectionist mindset Excess margin lending for quoted stocks
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Pension Reform Evolution
Very positive results to date but still in early stages
Compliance still low – less than 25% of quoted companies registered
Pension funds are +/-1% of GDP with potential to grow rapidly (25% by 2020?)
Conservative and highly professional regulation which will need to liberalize over time
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Pension Reform Evolution
Investment guidelines are narrowly defined and this lack of diversification has a double barreled effect – Reduced opportunities for returns Increased market volatility risk
In recognition of this “fact of life”, PENCOM has sponsored this Alternative Assets Seminar
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Pension Reform Evolution
Let’s dream about what could be Then – be realistic about risks and what
could go wrong Objectives should be three fold
1. Optimum risk/return system2. Pension system evolving to meet national needs3. Avoiding mines in the future minefield
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Future Potential Growth from +/-1% of GDP to 20-25% by
2015-2020 All of quoted companies registered and
broad coverage at all levels of government and SMEs
From +/-3m covered to 10+m N1.0 trillion to N5.0-10.0 trillion pension
funds Increased coverage to include more of
population provided investment results build widespread confidence
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Managing Risk What can go wrong?
Return to “muddling through” economic policies Collapse of eligible markets with major impact on
public confidence Low investment returns with high fees and
expenses Abuse of the system Populist misguided reform
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Objectives1. Optimum Risk/Return System Investment guidelines that enhance returns
and diversify risks Investment vehicles which expand
alternatives for sound investments Enabling environment for –
Investment climate Expanding capital markets Rule of law
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Objectives2. Pension System Evolving to Meet
National Needs Progressive investment guidelines coupled
with prudent regulation Capacity building and depth of experience
within industry players Expansion of coverage to meet national
needs
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Objectives
3. Avoiding Mines in the Future Minefield Learning from global regulatory experience
(particularly Chilean type systems) Investment practices utilizing global lessons
learnt Sound diversification to cushion potential
market failures
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The Way Forward Proactive approach to assure successful
end results – Public/private partnership and continuous
dialogue Linkage to relevant global experiences Development of enabling environment Continuous evolution of investment guidelines in
tandem with proven investment alternatives
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The Way Forward
Public/Private Partnership Periodic workshops and an annual “pension
summit” Review progress Upgrade skills and share experiences Raise issues Define and support solutions Build public confidence and widespread support
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The Way Forward
Linkage to Relevant Global Experiences External courses and secondments Learning from global players
Successes Failures Lessons learnt
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The Way Forward
Enabling Environment Improved investment climate Improved infrastructure Upgraded Rule of Law Expanded Capital Markets Specific reforms
Taxation Pass through vehicle REITs
???
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The Way Forward
Investment Guidelines Systematic development of alternative
investment vehicles Competence Governance Proven track records
Evolving Investment Guidelines in anticipation of sound investment requirements
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Conclusions Nigerian pension system should evolve
towards best global practices Public Private Partnership should be nurtured
to drive the evolutionary process Risk minimization and sound investment
results must both be given priority in building public trust.
Long term needs for all Nigerians should be anticipated proactively