performance analysis of member ecas … database 44,316 31,115 11,787 6,309 5,880 5,770 5,894 turk...

PERFORMANCE

ANALYSIS OF MEMBER

ECAS

2014 - 2015

• The Secretariat General of AMAN UNION circulated a

questionnaire to its 19 Full Members requesting

their business performance figures for the years 2014

& 2015

• 17 out of 19 Members responded to the questionnaire

• Wherever data was unavailable, estimates or past

data have been used in order to maintain

consistency

Methodology of the analysis

2

• Basic data (Capital base, customer base and buyers

database)

• Business insured

• Premium

• Claims and Recoveries

• Major issues faced by the ECAs

• Conclusion

AGENDA

3

AMAN UNION Full members

4

Capital base

44.0

21.2

13.5

5.5 15.9SEP

Tasdeer/QDB

Turk Eximbank

EGFI

Other members

(in %)

USD 9.1 billion5

Customer base

• Total number of Policyholders reached5,581 in 2015, compared to 5,235 in2014 (6.6% annual growth). This gives anaverage of 294 policyholder per member.

• TURK EXIMBANK and COTUNACE havethe highest number of policyholders andaccount on an average 70% ofpolicyholder’s number in the last 3 years.

• In 2015, we noted an important decreasein 2 ECAs customer base (i.e. NAIFE andASEI) by 56% and 45% respectivelywhereas ICIEC and Kazexportgarantwitnessed the highest increase in thenumber of policyholders (60%)

3,661

4,4364,917

5,2355,581

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6

Buyers database

44,316

31,115

11,787

6,309

5,880

5,770 5,894

Turk Eximbank

COTUNACE

ICIEC

ECGA

DHAMAN

LCI

Other members

• Total number of buyers reducedfrom 123,429 in 2014 to 111, 071in 2015 due to the drop in TurkEximbank buyers.

• TURK EXIMBANK accounts for40 % of the total number of AUbuyers in 2015.

• Three AU members witnessed asignificant increase in thedatabase buyers in 2015 namelyTasdeer/QDB (81%), CAGEX(52%), EGFI (44%) and LCI (35%).

7

Business insured

17.019.0

24.9 24.6 24.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution of total business insured in the last 5 Years(in USD billion)

9

Evolution of total business insured by line of business(in USD billion)

10

0

5

10

15

20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution of Business insured in the last 5 years

13.7 14.6

18.7 18.1 17.5

2.3 2.44.0 4.2

4.8

0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.60.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3

Evolution of business insured by line of business

Short term Export Domestic Medium term Investment


11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Short term Export Domestic Medium term Investment


5.0

1.6 0.8 0.8 1.2

8.3

3.7

1.4 1.3 1.5

11.0

4.8

1.6 1.2 1.1

10.1

5.2

1.7 1.1 1.1

TURK EXIMBANK ICIEC LCI MEXIM DHAMAN

2012 2013 2014 2015

12

Members contribution in business insured in 2015(in USD billion)

13

10.1

5.2

1.7

1.2

1.1

1.1 3.8

Turk Eximbank ICIEC LCI CAGEX DHAMAN MEXIM Others

Members contribution in business insured in 2015

42%

21%

7%

5%4%5%

16%

Turk Eximbank

ICIEC

LCI

CAGEX

DHAMAN

MEXIM

Others

Top 6 members account for 84% of total business in 2015 14

Members contribution in ST business (export) in 2015

9.47

3.67

0.94

0.602.82

Turk Eximbank ICIECDHAMAN EXIM bank of MalaysiaOther members

• Total export business decreasedby 3.3% from USD 18.1 billion in2014 to USD 17.5 billion in2015.

• Turk Eximbank, ICIEC, DHAMANand MEXIM are the mostimportant contributors to theAU short term business in thelast 2 years (2014-2015).

• They account for 84% of totalAU members exported in 2015compared with 82% in 2014.

• Major growth in export businessin 2015 was from Tasdeer(126%), ICIEC (13%), LCI (12%)and DHAMAN (9%).

(in USD billion)

15

Members contribution in Domestic business in 2015

• Domestic business increased by14.3% from USD 4.2 billion in 2014to USD 4.8 billion in 2015.

• LCI, CAGEX, Turk Eximbank, ICIECand ASEI are the most importantcontributors to the AU domesticbusiness in the last 2 years(2014-2015).

• They account for 81% of total AUmembers in 2015 compared with86% in 2014.

• Major growth in domestic businessin 2015 was from MEXIM (450%),CAGEX (49%) and EGFI (44%).

1.35

1.090.59

0.42

0.42

0.93

LCI CAGEX Turk Eximbank

ICIEC ASEI Other members

(in USD billion)

16

Members contribution in MT business insured in 2015

• MT business dropped by 23.4%from USD 0.8 billion in 2014 toUSD 0.6 billion in 2015.

• ICIEC Medium term businessdropped by 43% in 2015 (fromUSD 0.37 billion in 2014 toUSD 0.21 billion in 2015)

• MEXIM and ICIEC are the mostimportant contributors to the AUMT business in the last 2 years(2014-2015).


0.37

0.21

0.04

MEXIM ICIEC others

(in USD billion)

17

Members contribution in FII business insured in 2015

0.86

0.31

0.16

ICIEC EGFI DHAMAN

(in USD billion)• FII business dropped by 7.6% fromUSD 1.44 billion in 2014 to USD 1.33billion in 2015.

• DHAMAN FII business dropped by20% in 2015 (from USD 0.2 billion in2014 to USD 0.16 billion in 2015)

• ICIEC, EGFI and DHAMAN are themost important contributors to theAU FII business in the last 2 years(2014-2015).


18

Premium

Evolution of total premium in the last 5 Years(in USD millions)

88.4

109.698.0

123.6

108.1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

• Total premium has increased byan average annual growth of5.3% during the last 5 yearscompared with an averageannual growth of 9.2% in thebusiness insured during the sameperiod.

• In 2014, we witnessed animpressive growth in premiumcompared with 2013. This isexplained by the new significantinvestment insurance businessbooked during 2014.

20


• The growth in the total premium inthe last 5 years is driven by thedomestic business (+13.7%) andShort term Export (+8.2%).

• High volatility of total premiummainly affected by the MT and FIIbusiness line.

• The average annual growth in MTand FII business is (– 3.8%) and(-1.1%) respectively.

• Under Others, the ECAs reportedservices like factoring (ECGE),working capital loans/bankguarantees (MEXIM)

21

48.2

15.4

10.4

6.8 7.6

49.0

20.3 20.1

12.6

7.6

57.2

24.2

2.4

14.1

0.1

63.1

27.5

5.8

26.0

1.2

66.0

25.7

8.96.5

1.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Short term Export Domestic Medium term Investment others

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution of total premium in the last 5 Years

• In average, the short term (export anddomestic) represent 73% of averagepremium in the last 5 years. The MTand FII represent 23% and otherrevenues is only 4%.

• The short term premium (export anddomestic) varied from 63% to 85%during the last 5 years. The highestimpact was in 2015.

• The MT and FII premium varied from14% to 30 % during the last 5 years.The highest impact was in 2012.

22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Short term Export Domestic Medium term Investment others


• Eximbank, ICIEC have and LCI haveregistered the highest growth with13.6%, 11.4% and 9.4% respectively inthe last 5 years. They generate onaverage 47% of total premium duringthe same period.

• The top 5 ECAs represent 76% of theaverage premium registered during thelast 5 years.

20

.5

14

.2

12

.8

11

.4

5.1

24

.4

22

.9

13

.9

28

.2

15

.7

5.5

23

.4

26

.5

13

.2

11

.1

14

.6

6.5

26

.1

34

.6

17

.3

27

.7

14

.2

6.9

22

.9

34

.1

21

.9

10

.5

8.1

7.3

26

.2

TURKEXIMBANK ICIEC EGFI ASEI LCI OTHERS

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

23

Members contribution in premium in 2015

(in USD millions)

• Top 5 ECAs in terms of premiumaccount for 76% of premium in 2015

• Turk Eximbank is the major contributorin premium (32%) followed by ICIEC(20%), EGFI (10%), ASEI (8%) and LCI(7%).

34.1

21.910.5

8.1

7.3

26.2

Turkeximbank ICIEC EGFI ASEI LCI Others

24

Members contribution in ST export premium in 2015

31.5

10.6

7.2

3.7

3

2.9 7.1

Turkeximbank ICIEC EGFI

Dhaman LCI Cotunace

Others

(in USD millions)• The ST export premium increasedby 4.4% from USD 63.1m in 2014to USD 65.5 m in 2015.

• Turk Eximbank, ICIEC, EGFI,DHAMAN, LCI and Cotunace arethe most important contributors tothe AU short term business in2015.

• They account for 89% of total AUmembers export premium in 2015.

• Major growth in export business in2015 was from Tasdeer (120%),ICIEC (57%), LCI (42%) and MEXIM(35%).

25

Members contribution in Domestic premium in 2015

7.1

5.04.4

2.9

2.5

3.8

ASEI CAGEX

LCI EGFI

Turk Eximbank Others

(in USD millions)• The domestic export premiumdecreased by 6.5% fromUSD 27.5m in 2014 to USD 25.7min 2015.

• ASEI, CAGEX, LCI, EGFI and TurkEximbank are the most importantcontributors to the AU short termbusiness in 2015.

• They account for 85% of total AUmembers export premium in 2015.

• Major growth in domesticpremium in 2015 was fromShiekan (1507%), EGFI (120%) andCAGEX (28%)

26

Members contribution in MT premium in 2015

4.72.67

1.3

0.15 0.07

ICIEC Kazexportgarant

MEXIM Turk Eximbank

EGFI

(in USD millions)• The medium term premium

significantly increased by 54% fromUSD 5.8 m in 2014 to USD 8.9m in2015.

• ICIEC, Kazexportgarant, MEXIMand Turk Eximbank are the onlycontributors to the AU short termbusiness in 2015.

• The Major growth in MT premiumin 2015 was from Kazexportgarant(USD 2.67m in 2015 comparedwith Nil in 2014) and MEXIM(210%).

27

Members contribution in Foreign Invest. premium in 2015

5.5

0.73 0.3 0.07

6.65.5

1.2

18.8

0.5

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

ICIEC DHAMAN EGFI Others Total

2015 2014

(in USD millions)

• The FII premium dropped by 75%from USD 26m m in 2014 toUSD 6.6m in 2015.

• ICIEC, EGFI and DHAMAN are theMAJOR contributors to the AUshort term business in 2015.

• The drop in 2015 FII premium isdue to the huge decrease in EGFIforeign investment premium fromUSD 18.8m in 2014 to USD 0.3m in2015.

28

Claims and recoveries

Evolution of claims and recoveries in the last 5 years (in USD millions)

35.3

42.2

36.3

47.8

57.7

6.8

19.8

13.7

19.6 18.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Claims Receoveries

• The total amount of recoverieshave increased by an averageannual growth rate of 28% duringthe last 5 years which is 2 timesmore than the average annualgrowth rate of the claims (13.1%).

• The average annual growth ofclaims during the last 5 years ishigher than the average annualgrowth of total premium (5.3%)and business insured (9.2%)

30

Evolution of claims by line of business in the last 5 years (in USD millions)

• The total amount of claims haveincreased from USD 47.8m in 2014 toUSD 57.7m in 2015 due to the highincrease in MT claims from USD 1.5mto USD 13.1m during the same period.

• The global loss ratio has increased from40% in 2014 to 53.4% in 2015.

23.822.8 23.1

28.727.5

5.4

9.510.7

17.6 17

6.1

4.02.6

1.5

13.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Short term export Domestic Medium term FII31

Evolution of claims by ECA in 2015(in USD millions)

• The total amount of claims haveincreased from USD 47.8m in 2014 toUSD 57.7m in 2015 due to the highincrease in MT claims from USD 1.5mto USD 13.1m during the same period.

• During 2015, the highest incidences ofclaims are registered by :

• ST (Export): Turk Eximbank ( USD 12.6m)

• Domestic : ASEI (USD 10.8m)

• MT : EGFI (USD 12.7m)

• EGFI is the major contributor in the MTclaims in the last 2 years. Their claimspaid under MT lines of business haveincreased from USD 1.5m in 2014 toUSD 12.7m in 2015.

18

.3

14

.5

11

.8

3 2.9

1.6

0.8 4

.8

57

.7

2

26

.9

7.9

2 2.2

1.5

0.2

5.1

47

.8

2015 2014

32

Evolution of recoveries by ECA in 2015(in USD millions)

• The total amount of recoveries haveslightly decreased from USD 19.6m in2014 to USD 18.5m in 2015.

• During 2015, the highest recoveries ofclaims are registered by :

• ST (Export): DHAMAN ( USD 2m)

• Domestic : ASEI (USD 0.8m)

• MT : EGFI (USD 12.7m)

• EGFI and Turk Eximbank are the majorECAs which made recoveries in 2015.They both represent 78% of totalrecoveries in 2015.

4

1.3

5.76.4

0.41.8

19.6

12.7

1.7 2

0.3 0.9 0.9

18.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

EGFI TurkEximbank

DHAMAN Cotunace ASEI Others Total

2014 2015

33

Claims by geographical regions

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Europe Asia Africa S.America N.America

2014 2015

• The increase in claims registered in SouthAmerica and in Europe were the majorreasons for the 21% increase in the totalclaims paid in 2015.

• During 2015, the claims registered in Africadropped by 32% (from USD 15.6m in 2014to USD 10.6m in 2015) and those in Asiahave stagnated (USD 17.6m).

• The highest claims registered were inIndonesia (USD 10.8m), (Cuba) USD 12mDjibouti (USD 6.2m), Italy (USD 4.4m),Malaysia (USD 2.7m) Sudan (USD 2.4m)and Netherlands (USD 1.5m).

34

Claims by sector

Top 10 Sectors Amount (in USD millions)

Chemicals and petrochemicals 11.0

Vehicles and spare parts 6.5

Service and engineering 6.4

Machinery and equipment 5.7

Textile 4.6

Food 4.6

Banking 2.7

Trading 1.3

Industry 0.7

Pharmaceuticals 0.535

Major issues faced by ECAs

• The awareness about the credit insurance in some countries

• Competition from the private insurers for new and existent clients

• Availability, quality and accuracy of commercial credit informationon SSA and Middle East

• Political instability in some countries

• Drop in main commodity prices

• Low reinsurance cooperation between the members andreinsurance constraints

• Dependency on a selected number of clients or countries

• Insufficient Government support for the state-owned ECAs

37

Conclusion

- Increase in customer base ( from 5,235 to 5,581): 6.6%

- Decline in buyer’s database (from 123,429 to 111,071): 10%

- Decline in total insured business (from USD 24.6B to 24.2B): 1.6%

- Decline in total premium (from USD 123.6m to USD 108.1m): 12.5%

- Increase in total claims paid (from USD 47.8m to USD 57.7m ): 20.7%

- Decline in total recoveries (from USD 19.6m to USD 18.5m): 5.6%

- Increase in the loss ratio (from 40% to 53.4%) : 33.5%

39

THANK YOU www.amanunion.net

performance analysis of member ecas … database 44,316 31,115 11,787 6,309 5,880 5,770 5,894 turk...

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