photovoltaics: changing the landscape of energy generationenergy.anu.edu.au/files/pierre verlinden...

Dr. Pierre Verlinden Chief Scientist

Photovoltaics: Changing the

Landscape of Energy Generation

December 7th, 2015

2

3800 3660

0

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Capacity and Shipments (MW)

Module Capacity

Shipments

#4

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Company overview – snapshot of global operations

• Founded in 1997, Changzhou, China

• Listed on NYSE: TSL

• World’s largest PV manufacturing

campus – approx. 15,000 employees

• Over 15 GW shipped since 2007*

*As of October 2015

Regional Sales 2014

China 34%

EU 6%

ROA 7%

ROW 3%

USA 28%

Japan 22%

• 2015 Q3 Shipment: 1.7GW • ~ 50 modules per minute

• Estimated 2015 Shipment: 5.5GW

(+50%)

1. The Renewable Energy Revolution 1.0

2. Efficiency - Cost - Price Status and Projection

3. Manufacturing High-Efficiency Si Solar Cells

4. Recent Achievements

5. Future Technologies

4

How can we talk about the Renewable Energy Revolution?

• In 2015: Worldwide PV installed capacity ~ 200GW PV

• … generating about 1% of global electricity

Source: R.A. Hefner III, “The Grand Energy Transition”, 2002

5

Evolution of the price of a barrel of oil

Source: EIA

6

…Now compared to the cost of manufacturing PV modules

PV Module Cost (US$/W)

Source: EIA

1 oil barrel = 42 gallons = 6 billion

Joule = 1667 kWh = the energy generated by 40W of PV during

25 years

7

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

Source: www.lazard.com

(in US$/MWh)

http://www.lazard.com/

8

LCOE of wind and PV compared to coal, gas and nuclear

• Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) : the LCOE (Levelized Cost Of Electricity) of wind and solar PV are decreasing, while the LCOE of coal, gas and nuclear is increasing

• Onshore wind and solar PV are both now much more competitive against the established generation technologies than would have seemed possible only five or 10 years ago

Americas Asia EMEA Global Average

Onshore Wind $82/MWh

Solar PV $122/MWh

Coal $75/MWh $73/MWh $105/MWh

Comb. Cycle Gas $82/MWh $93/MWh $118/MWh

Nuclear $261/MWh $158/MWh

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

142

97.5

71.9

60.7

50.7 50.2 41.4

20.8 18.4 17.8 17.3 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.5 10.8 10.3 10 8.7 7.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

PV

Inst

alle

d (

MW

)

Installation of PV by Major US Companies (MW)

Major businesses in US installed a total of 907MW

Source: SEIA www.seia.org/solarmeansbiz

http://www.seia.org/solarmeansbiz

67%

16%

6%

11%

Primary Energy Consumption (China 2014)

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Non Fossil Fuel

Current primary energy consumption in China (2014)

10

Source: Study on China’s Energy Transition and Development Roadmap, Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Nov. 2015

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

(MW

)

Other Renewables

Battery Storage

Pumped Hydro

Biogas

Waste

Solar

Wind

Hydropower

Nuclear

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Installed Power Capacity (China)

11


From 2015, new capacity would be mostly wind + PV

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Po

we

r G

en

era

tio

n (

TWh

)

Other Renewables

Biogas

Waste

Solar

Wind

Hydropower

Nuclear

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Power Generation in China (Projection)

12


Fossil Fuel Power

Generation peaks in 2020

86% Renewable Energy by

2050

1GW PV Power Plant predicted before 2020

13

1

10

100

1000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Size of largest PV Power Plants (MW)

Largest PV power plant size X10 every 5 years

14

Decline of The Coal Industry

• “Coal is fast becoming the telegraph to renewable energy’s Internet” (Jeremy Leggett, 2015)

15

Decline of The Coal Industry

American coal stocks are undergoing the most precipitous decline in the history of the energy industry. In 2011, four mining companies — Peabody Energy, Arch Coal, Alpha Natural Resources and Cloud Peak Energy — supplied most of the US coal and together were worth nearly $40 billion. In four years, their combined value has fallen by 98 percent.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/The-end-of-coal-is-near-6483929.php

http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/The-end-of-coal-is-near-6483929.php














16

Other news

• IEA: “Renewable Energy is becoming increasingly competitive with baseload fossil fuel power generation”

• Greenpeace: “Britain could produce 85% of its power via renewable energy by 2030”. UK Energy Minister Amber Rudd: UK to phase out all coal plants by 2025

• The increased role of wind and solar power in the U.K. energy mix has served to lower wholesale electricity prices by more (-£1.55billion) than the overall net cost of subsidizing clean energy (£1.1billion)

• Australia has 1,463,867 rooftop PV systems, representing 4.47 GW of installed PV capacity as of September 31, 2015

• http://www.rechargenews.com/solar/1410053/re-increasingly-competitive-with-baseload-fossil-iea-says • http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/20/85-of-british-power-can-be-via-renewables-by-2030-

says-greenpeace?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=9711c4ef1c-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-9711c4ef1c-303442305

• Clean Energy Regulator, Australia • Good Energy, University of Sheffield

http://www.rechargenews.com/solar/1410053/re-increasingly-competitive-with-baseload-fossil-iea-says
















http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/20/85-of-british-power-can-be-via-renewables-by-2030-says-greenpeace?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=9711c4ef1c-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-9711c4ef1c-303442305






























As the world’s energy system is shifting from fossil fuels to renewables sources,

the question is no longer if the world will transition to sustainable energy, but

how long it will take and whether the transition can be made in ways that maximize the benefits today and for

future generations.

18

How much the PV Market will growth?

Various sources: Paul Maycock’s PV News, Photon International, Navigant

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1,000.0

10,000.0

100,000.0

1,000,000.0

10,000,000.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

An

nu

al S

hip

me

nt

or

Cu

m. C

apac

ity

(M

Wp

)

Year

World PV Cell Production (MWp)

Annual Shipment (MW)

Assuming 25% growth

Cumulative Capacity (MW)

Proj. Cumulative Capacity (MW)

TeraWatt/year by 2028 ?

Will we reach 1 TW/y? When will the PV Market saturate?

Saturation

19

Worldwide Electricity Capacity

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Ele

ctri

city

Cap

acit

y (G

W)

Year

Worldwide Electricity Capacity (GW)

New Policies Scenario

450 Scenario

* World Energy Outlook 2013

Average growth 2.5% p.a.

We need to build about 200 new power plants (1GW each) per year !

20

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

An

nu

al S

hip

me

nt

or

Cu

m. C

apac

ity

(M

Wp

)

Year

World PV Cell Production (MWp)

Annual PV Shipment (MW)

Proj. PV Annual Shipment (MW)

Cumulative PV Capacity (MW)

Proj. Cumulative Capacity (MW)

Total Electricity Capacity (MW)

Realistic World PV Market (Business as usual)

Percentage of Total Electricity Generation

21

Total Energy Demand

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Ene

rgy

De

man

d (

TWh

/ye

ar)

Year

Total Worldwide Energy Demand (TWh/year)

Total Energy Demand(TWh/year)

Total ElectricityGeneration (TWh/year)

• World Energy Outlook 2013 • Assuming 1Mtoe = 42E15 J = 11.667 TWh

Potential increase in electricity demand

22

Worldwide Vehicle Registration

• Already more than 160,000 electrical vehicles sold since 2009

• By 2030, the Solar recharging of electric vehicles may potentially add 5,600TWh/year to the global demand for PV electricity * (Capacity ~ 5 TW).

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Ve

hic

le (

Mill

ion

s)

Year

Worldwide Vehicle Registration (Millions)

* Assuming 768 Millions electrical vehicles (30%) consuming 20kWh/day

+85 Millions vehicles/year

By 2016, 30% of Government cars in

China must be electric or plug-in hybrid

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) requests that the parking lots for newly built residential communities must be equipped with

charging posts, and fast charging for inter-city transport. An additional 12,000

charging stations and 4.8 million charging posts be in place nationwide by 2020.

25

Modeling of module efficiency

Rapid progress at the early phase of development

Relative slow progress when approaching the physical and technological constraints

Agree well with various PV technologies [1]

Empirical Model of for champion Lab cells [1]

0( ) 1 exp( )L

a at

c

Time-dependent efficiency Efficiency limit

Calendar year

Start year

[1] A. Goetzberger et al., SOLMAT 74, p1, 2002.

25.78% in 2014

Early development

Approaching theor. limit

Development time

26

Survey of the industrial PV modules

Good fitting of industrial multi-Si modules

Parameterization of the model [1] for multi-Si

[1] A. Goetzberger et al., SOLMAT 74, p1, 2002. [2] Data from websites of PV companies, enfsolar and solarshop.com [3] Y. Chen et al., WCPEC6, Kyoto, 2014

27

Survey of the industrial PV modules

Parameterization of the model [1] for Mono-, Multi-Si and Thin-Films

[1] A. Goetzberger et al., SOLMAT 74, p1, 2002. [2] Data from websites of PV companies, enfsolar and solarshop etc. [3] Y. Chen et al., WCPEC6, Kyoto, 2014

28

Modeling of module efficiency

Note that the fitting only represents the main trend of technology.

Current efficiency and growth is comparable for CIGS and CdTe.

Thin film technologies improve faster (~0.6% abs./year) than c-Si (~0.4% abs./year).

Crystalline Si still keeping the lead.

[1] A. Goetzberger et al., SOLMAT 74, p1, 2002. [2] Data from websites of PV companies, enfsolar and solarshop.com [3] Y. Chen et al., WCPEC6, Kyoto, 2014

16.4%

15.6%

13.8%

13.2%

18.6%

17.6%

17%

16.8%

p-PERC 19.6% Panasonic

29

y = 51x-0.311

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Mo

du

le A

SP (

US$2011/W

)

Cumulative Production (MW)

1975-2012 Module price in 2011 $US$ 1975

1990

2000 2003 2008

2011

Cost at 30% Gross Margin

2017 to 2019

Learning Rate = 20%

1975-2012 Module Prices ($2011)

Various sources: Paul Maycock’s PV News, Photon International, Robert Johnson, Paula Mints, Navigant, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

2013

b

tt

q

qCC

0

0

30

Cost of PV modules

Learning Rates:

c-Si: 22.8%

CdTe : 16.3%

CIGS : 8.1%

Crystalline Si technologies benefit from standardization (tools and processes) and larger experience (cumulative production)

[1] Kersten et al., 26th EUPVSEC, p4697, 2011. [2] Photon International, 2011-2014 [3] ITRPV 2014, http://www.itrpv.net/ [4] Cost data from financial reports of various companies [5] Verlinden et al. 29th EUPVSEC, 2013

http://www.itrpv.net/

31

2014 Cost of Multi-Si Modules is about 12% of 2007 cost

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014

Multi-Si Module Manufacturing Cost

Module

Cell

Wafering

Ingot & Casting

Si Cost

…. and still going down at a rate greater than 7% p.a.

Si Cost54%

Ingot&Casting cost

5%

Wafer cost15%

Cell cost9%

Module cost17%

2008 Si Cost21%

Ingot&Casting cost

5%

Wafer cost16%Cell cost

23%

Module cost35%

2012

Si Cost21%

Ingot&Casting cost

5%


20%

Module cost37%

2013 Si Cost23%

Ingot&Casting cost

5%


20%

Module cost38%

2014

Manufacturing Cost of Multi-Si Module

33

Cost of PV modules

Recent manufacturing cost is comparable for silicon wafer-based and thin films technologies.

Learning rate (LR) for c-Si, CdTe and CIGS is 22.8%, 16.3% and 8.1% respectively.

0.56 $/W (2014)

0.58 $/W

0.76 $/W

Mo

du

le

34

Cost of PV modules (Projection to 2020)

Recent manufacturing cost is comparable for silicon wafer-based and thin films technologies.

Learning rate (LR) for c-Si, CdTe and CIGS is 22.8%, 16.3% and 8.1% respectively.

Assuming 20% annual production growth yields prediction of cost in 2020: 0.64 (CIGS), 0.42 (CdTe) and 0.34 (c-Si) $/W

Fighting cost (material, labor, Capex, etc.) while improving efficiency is key.

0.34 $/W (2020)

0.42 $/W

0.64 $/W

Mo

du

le

36

Working on Lowering Cost or Improving Efficiency?

Improving Efficiency

Lowering Cost

37

Simple P/N

Junction Screen Printed

Solar Cell

Selective Emitter

Solar Cell

Local BSF

(PERL)

Mono-Crystalline

Silicon PERL

Passivated Contacts

Tandem Solar Cell

The roadmap toward high-efficiency is well known ….

P

N

…. But the road is very long !

P

N

Interdigitated Back Contact

(IBC)

IBC with passivated contacts

Tandem Solar Cell with IBC

Ag finger

Screen printed PERL

solar cell

Solar Cell Efficiency

Quality of Starting Material

Purity of Chemicals

Solar Cell Design

Process

Operating Procedures

Cleanliness of Facilities

Why is it taking so long?

38

Solar Cell design is not the only thing to improve

LCOE ($/kWh) improvement must be demonstrated

39

Assuming Constant LCOE (11.32 US cents/kWh)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Mo

du

le P

rice

($

/W)

Module Price for 3kW Residential Rooftop PV System in Tokyo (Japan)

Multi

Mono

N-type

Increased LID

No LID +$0.03/W

+$0.04/W

+$0.067/W

+$0.149/W

+$0.262/W

PV Manufacturing Improvement

40

• Tremendous improvements in PV manufacturing over the last 20 years

• Clean room, particle control • Automation, SPC • Contamination control, Chemicals • Handling procedures

• Particle-level control – Clean Room Class better than 1000 is needed for high-

efficiency

– Multi-Class Clean Rooms

• Automation – Selection of the right automation

– Selection of the right material for belts, pick-up tools

• Training of Manufacturing Engineers and Operators

• Constant monitoring of PL images, Jo and Lifetime data

Constant monitoring of contamination

41

• High-Efficiency PV spec is lower than CMOS spec for metal

Contamination Control

42

CMOS spec

[1] D. Macdonald et al, 2005

For a Lifetime > 1ms: Fe < 2e10 cm-2

W << 1e10 cm-2

Ti<1e10 cm-2

Cr <1e10 cm-2

43

Development of high performance multi-Si

Contaminated edges and bottom

Segregated Impurities

Dislocations

Grain boundaries

For many years, we thought that the bigger the grains the better ….

…. to find out very recently that dislocations multiply much faster with large grains!

44 44

Highest Performance mc-Si Substrates

Seed and Crystallization process control

Temperature profile control

Crucible quality

Coating quality

Contamination control

IEEE PVSC 2015 : Z. Xiong et al., “High Performance Multicrystalline Wafers with Lifetime of 400μs at Industrial Scale”

46

Champion Mono-crystalline Silicon p-type i-PERC Cell

Area (cm2) Voc (mV) Jsc (mA/cm2) FF (%) η (%)

244.11 672.1 39.65 80.31 21.40*

243.36 683.9 39.95 80.60 22.02**

* Measured by Fraunhofer CalLab on 31.10.2014. ** Measured in-house on 24.11.2015

Screen printed Mono i-PERC

p-type solar cell

Passivated emitter Selective emitter

Passivated rear surface

Local BSF and contact

Industrial process

47

Champion Multi-crystalline Silicon p-type i-PERC Cell

The average cell efficiency for 156mm x 156mm multicrystalline silicon solar cell reaches 20.99% and maximum efficiency reaches 21.25% , independently certified by Fraunhofer CalLab.

Voc (mV) Jsc (mA/cm2) FF (%) η (%) Area(cm2)

667.8 (+/- 2.3) 39.78 (+/-0.76) 79.97 (+/-0.52) 21.25 242.74(+/-0.24)

* Measured by Fraunhofer CalLab on November 3, 2015

World Record

Screen printed Multicrystalline i-PERC

p-type solar cell

Selective emitter

Passivated rear surface

Local BSF and contact

48

multi-Si Honey Plus technology

>19% efficiency multi-Si p-type Honey Plus Module

[1] Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 2015; 23:1–9

Area [m2] Voc [V] Isc [A] FF [%] Eff. [%]

1.512 77.931 4.726 78.929 19.2*

• *Independently confirmed by Fraunhofer ISE CalLab • Previous mc-Si record: 18.5% by Q-Cells [1]

High lifetime mc-Si substrate, NOT quasi-mono

World Record

49

IBC Cells & Modules

Cell Dimensions

Voc (V)

Isc (A)

Jsc (mA/cm2)

Pmax (W)

FF (%)

Efficiency (%)

ANU/Trina 2cm x 2cm 0.702 0.1678 41.95 0.0975 82.7 24.37*

Trina Solar (Cell)

156mm (239.31 cm2)

0.683 9.95 41.58 5.48 80.6 22.9**

** Independent measurement by JET * Independent measurement by CalLab

electron hole N

High τ

50

IBC Modules (Future product in development)

First Module based on 156mmx156mm IBC Cells

Double Glass for best reliability

Frameless

50 kW demonstration

51

Solar Car

Trina Solar IBC solar cells powered the solar race car designed by Osaka Sangyo University (OSU), winning the 2015 FIA Alternative Energies solar car race in Suzuka, Japan, on August 1st 2015

52

Current PV Technology Development at Trina Solar

Baseline Multi 17.2% 250W

Honey Multi 17.9% 260W

Honey M (Mono) 19.2% 275W

Honey Plus 20.4% 295W

IBC 22.5% 320W

electron hole

Current Production

Pilot Phase

Ag finger

Screen printed Honey Plus

solar cell

54

HJ 22% 310W

IBC 22.5% 320W

HJ+IBC 24.0% 345W (25.5% Lab)

Tandem Junction 27% 385W

Future PV Solar Cell Technology

SiN

N-type

i-aSi

p-aSi

n-aSi Metal

P

Silicon

N High Eg S.C.

N

Pilot Phase

55

Conclusions

The Renewable Energy Revolution is charging ahead

From 2015, Solar PV and Wind to dominate new capacity for electricity generation

Efficiency and cost of PV modules can be predicted. Crystalline Silicon will continue to dominate the terrestrial PV market and technology (efficiency and cost)

It is a long road from first lab demonstration to commercial product, …. typically 20 or 25 years!

Efficiency is key to improve LCOE, but advantage in LCOE must be demonstrated for any new technology.

www.trinasolar.com

CHINA

SINGAPORE

JAPAN

CANADA

CHILE

U.S.A.

U.K.

GERMANY

FRANCE

ITALY

SPAIN SWITZERLAND

AUSTRALIA

Acknowledgements: • Thanks to all the members of the Crystallization,

Solar Cells and Modules R&D teams at Trina Solar

• This work is supported by the National High-Tech R&D Program (863 program) of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the P.R. China under project number 2012AA050303.

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