politics da --- startasdfer packet

7/24/2019 Politics DA --- Startasdfer Packet

1/61

HIGHWAYTRUSTFUNDPOLITICSDISADVANTAGE CAL2014

VOSS

HTF Politics DA


2/61


VOSS

Notes Page

Record instructor notes about the file here

Link cards for this disadvantage (the evidence that says the lan isunoular or controversial! are located in the individual casenegatives"


3/61


VOSS

#nc

A co$ro$ise on the High%ay Trust Fund is co$ing & it %ould raisethe gas ta' and stave off transortation collase

ones )*#+[Kevin. Staff Writer for Overdrive. Fuel tax hike proposed in Senate to shore up highwayfunding 6!"!#http$www.overdriveonline.%o&fuel'tax'hike'proposed'in'senate'to'shore'up'highway'funding(

) proposal in the ,enate is ursing the oft'%ited and tru%king'*a%ked solution for shoring u the High%ayTrust Fund- an increase in the ta' on diesel and gasoline at the u$ . +Theroosal*y Sens. ,o* -orker of ennessee and -hris /urphy of -onne%ti%ut%ould raise the fuel ta' six %ents a year overtwo years0 then index the tax to inflation. he federal fuel tax has not *een raised sin%e !""10 and sin%e then the revenue it generates has lost nearly halfits *uying power.+For too long0 -ongress has shied away fro& taking serious a%tion to update our %ountry2s aging infrastru%ture0 says /urphy. We2re%urrently fa%ing a transportation %risis that will only get worse if we don2t take *old a%tion to fund the 3ighway rust Fund. 4 know raising the gas tax

isn2t an easy %hoi%e0 *ut we2re not ele%ted to &ake easy de%isions 5 we2re ele%ted to &ake the hard ones.+To offset the revenueraised fro$ increasing the fuel ta'. /urhy and 0orker roose roviding net ta'relief for )&eri%an fa&ilies and *usinesses.An e'a$le %ould be e'tending so$e of the ta'

rovisions in the 1ta' e'tenders2 bill that already have broad. biartisan suort. %reating potentially *illions of dollars in per&anent tax relief over the next ! years alone0 the senators suggest.+7rowing up in ennessee as a%onservative0 4 learned that if so&ething was i&portant enough to have0 it was i&portant enough to pay for0 says -orker. 4n Washington0 far toooften0 we huff and puff a*out paying for proposals that are unpopular0 yet throw future generations under the *us when pu*li% pressure &ounts onpopular proposals that have *road support. -ongress should *e e&*arrassed that it has played %hi%ken with the 3ighway rust Fund and allowed it to

*e%o&e one of the largest *udgeting failures in the federal govern&ent.+) nu&*er ofbusiness. labor and constructiongrous have already lined u in suort of the /urhy*0orker roosal .+A$ericanTrucking)sso%iations offi%ials raised the lan because it reserves the 1user ays2rincile"3We have long said that the fuel tax is the fairest0 &ost effi%ient way to fund our nation2s infrastru%ture and this pra%ti%al0 *ipartisanproposal put forward *y Sens. /urphy and -orker would put the 3ighway rust Fund on the path to solven%y and provide the revenues we need to

&aintain a 8!st -entury transportation network0 says )) 9resident and -:O ,ill 7raves.+;ikewise0 the Alliance for Toll*Free4nterstates credited/urphy and -orker for proposing atransportation funding solution that does notinclude tolling e'isting interstates.+)nd NAT,50 the national asso%iation representing tru%kstops and travel pla


4/61


VOSS

fe% sending bills together to save ti$e"3,ut aroriations bills %ill face the

usual tussle %ith Reublicans over a$end$ents? as >e&o%rats look to prote%t

vulnera*le senators *efore the ele%tions.+hey don2t want to have votes that expose their&e&*ers to tough politi%al issues0 said =epu*li%an -onferen%e -hair&an @ohn hune of South>akota.+4 think Sen. =eid will %ontinue what he2s *een doing pro%edurally0 hune %ontinued.

,ut then0 you know0 we are always hopeful.+

A lot of issues are looking for fast*shrinking floor ti$e"

Transortation collase grinds American progress to a haltandunder$ines every other sectorof the econo$y

A,0> ?##[he )&eri%an So%iety of -ivil :ngineers 5 a report prepared *y the :%ono&i% >evelop&ent=esear%h 7roup0 whi%h fo%uses on evaluating e%ono&i% develop&ent perfor&an%e andopportunities. he group is %o&prised of e%ono&ists and planners who spe%iali


5/61


VOSS

repair for +transit+. hese standards are su*stantially lower +than ideal %onditions0 su%h asfree'flow+!+0 t+hat +are used *y so&e resear%hers as the *asis for +highway analysis. hisreport is a*out the effe%t +these defi%ien%ies have0 and will %ontinue to +have0 on .S. e%ono&i%perfor&an%e.+4n 8!0 it %as esti$ated that deficiencies 3 in A$erica9s surfacetransortation syste$s 3 cost households and businesses nearly B#C; 3 billion. hisin%luded approxi&ately G"H *illion +in vehi%le operating %osts0 G18 *illion in travel +ti&e

delays0 G!.8 *illion in safety %osts and GI" +&illion in environ&ental %osts. +4n 8#0A$erica9s roollars+SO=-: :>= 7roup analysis using ransportation :%ono&i% 4&pa%tSyste& D=:>4SE0 8!! LO: otals &ay not add due to rounding.+ta*le +!+8+++The

avoidable transortation costs that hinder3 the nation9s econo$y are i$osedri$arily by3 ave$ent and bridge conditions. high%ay congestion.3 and3 transit3and3 train3 vehicle3 conditions3 that3 are3 oerating3 %ell3 belo%3 $ini$u$3tolerable3 levels+for+the+level+of+traffi%+they+%arry.+4f3 the3 nation9s3 infrastructure3

%ere3 free3 of3 deficient3 conditions3in+pave&ent0+*ridges0+transit+vehi%les0+and+tra%k+and+transit+fa%ilities0+A$ericans3 %ould3 earn3 $ore3 ersonal3 inco$e3 and3industry3 %ould3 be3 $ore3 roductive0+as+de&onstrated+*y+the+gross+do&esti%+produ%t+Dvalue+addedE+that will *e lost if surfa%e transportation infrastru%ture is not *roughtup to a standard of &ini&u& +tolera*le %onditions. )s of 8!0 the loss of 7>9 +approa%hedG!8I *illion due to defi%ient surfa%e +transportation infrastru%ture. he expe%ted losses +in 7>9and personal in%o&e through 8# are displayed in a*le 8.+)%ross the .S.0 regions are

affected differently 3 by deficient and deteriorating infrastructure" The +$ost

affected regions are those %ith the largest +concentrations of urban areas 0 *e%ause

ur*an highways0 *ridges and transit syste&s are in worse +%ondition today than rural fa%ilities.9eak %o&&uting patterns also pla%e larger *urdens on ur*an +%apa%ities. 3owever0becausethe nation is so deendent on the 4nterstate High%ay ,yste$. i$acts 3 oninterstate erfor$ance in so$e regions or area 3 tyes are felt throughout thenation. Lationally0 +for highways and transit0 )C; $illion vehicle hours 3 traveled %erelost due to congestion in E;#;" This 3 total is e'ected to triple to !.J *illion hours *y

88 +and further increase to )"E billion hours in E;;.++ These vehicle hours


6/61


VOSS

understate erson hours and +underscore the severity of the loss in roductivity.+

The secific econo$ic i$lications of the 3 further deterioration of the @","national surface 3 transortation syste$ areas follows$+MM+Deficient surfacetransortation infrastructure3 %ill3 cost3 A$ericans3 nearly3 BC3 trillion3 byE;;0 as shown in a*le !0 whi%h represents &ore than G!.! trillion in added *usiness +expenses and nearly G!." trillion fro& household *udgets. +MM+This cost to business %illreduce the3 roductivity and co$etitiveness of 3 A$erican fir$s relative toglobal co$etitors" 3 4ncreased cu$ulative cost to businesses %ill 3 reach BC;

billion by E;E;" 8usinesses %ill have 3 to divert increasing ortions of earnedinco$e 3 to ay for transortation delays and vehicle 3 reairs. draining $oneythat %ould other%ise 3 be invested in innovation and e'ansion. +MM+Households

%ill be forced to forgo discretionary3 urchasessu%h as va%ations0 %ultural +1+events0edu%ational opportunities0 and restaurant &eals0 redu%e health related pur%hases +along withother expenditures that affe%t Nuality +of life0 in order to ay transortation costs that 3could be avoided if infrastructure %ere built to 3 sufficient levels. 4n%reased%u&ulative %osts to +households will *e G#J8 *illion in 88. +MM+The @"," %ill lose


7/61


VOSS

[@edediah0 >ire%tor of -ooperative hreat =edu%tion at the .S. >epart&ent of >efense0:%ono&i%s of War and 9ea%e$ :%ono&i%0 ;egal0 and 9oliti%al 9erspe%tives0 pg 8!1'8!I(;ess intuitive is how periods of e%ono&i% de%line &ay in%rease the likelihood of external%onfli%t. 9oliti%al s%ien%e literature has %ontri*uted a &oderate degree of attention to the i&pa%tof e%ono&i% de%line and the se%urity and defense *ehavior of interdependent states. =esear%h inthis vein has *een %onsidered at syste&i%0 dyadi% and national levels. Several nota*le

%ontri*utions follow. First0 on the syste$ic level. 9ollins D8JE advan%es /odelski andho&pson2s D!""6E work on leadership %y%le theory0 finding that rhyth$s in the globalecono$y are associated %ith the rise and fall of a re*e$inent o%er and theoftenbloody transition fro$ one re*e$inent leader to the ne't. )s su%h0 exogenousshockssu%h as e%ono&i% %rises could usher in a redistribution ofrelative o%erDseealso 7ilpin0 !"J!E that leads to uncertainty about o%er balances. increasing the riskof $iscalculationDFearon !""IE. )lternatively0 even a relatively certain redistributionof o%er could lead to a er$issive environ$ent for conflicts as a rising o%er$ay seek to challenge a declining o%erDWerner0 !"""E. Separately0 9ollins D!""6E alsoshows that glo*al e%ono&i% %y%les %o&*ined with parallel leadership %y%les i&pa%t thelikelihood of %onfli%t a&ong &aCor0 &ediu& and s&all powers0 although he suggests that the%auses and %onne%tions *etween glo*al e%ono&i% %onditions and se%urity %onditions re&ains

unknown. Se%ond0 on a dyadi% level0 -opeland2s D!""60 8E theory of trade expe%tationssuggest that future e'ectation of trade2 is a significant variable in understandingecono$ic conditions and security behavior of states" 3e argues that interdependentstates are likely to gain pa%ifi% *enefits fro& trade so long as they have an opti&isti% view offuture trade relations. 3owever0 if the e'ectations of future trade decline.articularlyfor difficult to relace ite$ such as energy resources. the likelihood for conflictincreases. as states %ill be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources"0rises could otentially be the trigger for decreased trade e'ectations either onits o%n or because ittriggers rotectionist $oves by interdeendent states" Third.others have considered the link bet%een econo$ic decline and e'ternal ar$edconflict at a national level" 8lo$berg and Hess (E;;E! find a strong correlation

bet%een internal conflict and e'ternal conflict0 parti%ularly during periods of e%ono&i%

downturn. hey write0 he linkages *etween internal and external %onfli%t and prosperity arestrong and &utually reinfor%ing. >cono$ic conflict tends to sa%n internal conflict.%hich in turn returns the favor" /oreover. the resence of a recession tends toa$lify the e'tent to %hich international and e'ternal conflicts self*reinforce eachother. D,lo&*erg and 3ess0 880 p. J"E >cono$ic decline has also been linked %ith anincrease in the likelihood of terroris$ (8lo$berg. Hess and =eeraana. E;;!.

%hich has the caacity to sill across borders and lead to e'ternal tensions.Further$ore. crises generally reduce the oularity of a sitting govern$ent"1Diversionary theory2 suggests that. %hen facing unoularity arising fro$econo$ic decline. sitting govern$ents have increased incentives to fabricatee'ternal $ilitary conflicts to create a 1rally around the flag2 effect . Wang D!""6E0>e=ouen D!""IE and ,lo&*erg0 3ess and ha%ker D86E find supporting eviden%e showingthat e%ono&i% de%line and use of for%e are at least indire%tly %orrelated. 7elpi D!""HE0 /illerD!"""E0 and Kisangani and 9i%kering D8"E suggest that the tendency to%ardsdiversionary tactics are greater for de$ocratic states than autocratic states due tothe fact the de$ocratic leaders are generally $ore suscetible to being re$ovedfro$ office due to lack of do$estic suort. >e >e=ouen D8E has provided eviden%eshowing that periods ofweak e%ono&i% perfor&an%e in the nited States and thus weak9residential popularity are stati%ally linked to an in%rease in the use of for%e. 4n su&&ary0re%ent e%ono&i% s%holarship positively %orrelates e%ono&i% integration with an in%rease in thefreNuen%y of e%ono&i% %rises0 whereas politi%al s%ien%e s%holarship links e%ono&i% de%line with


8/61


VOSS

external %onfli%t at syste&i%0 dyadi% and national levels. his i&plied %onne%tion *etweenintegration0 %rises and ar&ed %onfli%t has not featured pro&inently in e%ono&i%'se%urity de*ateand deserves &ore attention. his o*servation is not %ontradi%tory to other perspe%tives thatlink e%ono&i% interdependen%e with a de%rease in the likelihood of external %onfli%t0 su%h asthose &entioned in the first paragraph of this %hapter. Those studies tend to focus ondyadic interdeendence instead of global interdeendence and do not secifically

consider the occurrence of and conditions created by econo$ic crises. )s su%h theview presented here should *e %onsidered an%illary to those views.


9/61


VOSS

Enc @I

0o$ro$ise on the HTF is co$ing & key to overall transortationinfrastructure

,anche: and 8o%$an )*##[3u&*erto and ,ridget. 9oliti%s for =oll-all. Wyden Fo%used on Finding ,ipartisan Fundingfor 3ighway ,illRoll Call0 6!!!# ln(Senate Finan%e -o&&ittee -hair&an =on=yden0 >'Ore". is keeing his otions oen on ho% to fund a

ne% high%ay bill in order to hel foster a biartisan solution .+Lothing has *een agreed to0

nothing has been ruled out 0 nothing has *een ruled in0 Wyden told reporters uesday. )nd the way it2s going to work is *y theend of today0 early to&orrow &orning0 we2ll have a *eat on what &e&*ers of the Finan%e -o&&ittee want to do and then we2ll go fro& there. +here

are no easy answers here0 Wyden %ontinued. Failure is not an otion and %e9re going to $ake

decisions in a biartisan %ay" +Wyden reiterated that he intends to have a biartisan solution by

the end of the $onth .+he goal is still to get it out of Finan%e *y the end of this work period0 he said.+3is %o&&ents %o&e as

0ongress $ust act to rene% the high%ay bill before funding J %hich co$es fro$

gas ta' receits J effectively runs out as soon as ne't $onth .+Wyden stressed that failing toact %ould deal a harsh blo% to the frail econo$y. he White 3ouse has warned that not utting a

solution in lace %ould delay about ##E.;;; road%ay ro


10/61


VOSS

The federal high%ay trust fund is running out of cash0 a situation that %ould threatennext year2s road proCe%ts a%ross the %ountry.+State and lo%al transportation offi%ials have *een

wat%hing the trust fund shrink for so&e ti&e and hoping for %ongressional a%tion to fix thepro*le&.+=e9ve seen it co$ing like a slo%*$otion train crash0 said =andy 9eters0dire%tor of the Le*raska >epart&ent of =oads.+Relenishing the trust fund iswidely

viewed as so$ething la%$akers $ust do before dearting 0aitol Hill for their

)ugust re%ess.+4t9s al$ost certain they %ill find so$e te$orary fi'0 if only *e%ause ofthe potential i&pa%t on the e%ono&y and Co* %reation.+4 Cust see so little %han%e in an ele%tion

year that you2re going to shut down road %onstru%tion0 said Sen. /ike @ohanns of Le*raska.+8ut so$e of the solutions under discussion could rove unoular the$selves. Oneproposal in the 3ouse would use &oney saved *y ending the .S. 9ostal Servi%e2s Saturday &aildelivery.+4t2s un%lear exa%tly whi%h proCe%ts %ould *e affe%ted in the unlikely s%enario thatfederal highway funds dry up for the next %onstru%tion season.+,ut there9s certainly a lot ofcash hanging in the balance for state and local transortation rogra$s thatalready face a ga bet%een infrastructure needs and the resources available to fundthe&.+he federal govern&ent funds G8J8 &illion a year in state and lo%al road %onstru%tion inLe*raska0 and GI &illion in 4owa. )*out half of the road %onstru%tion &oney spent *y stateroad depart&ents in Le*raska and 4owa %o&es fro& federal sour%es.+The cru' of the

roble$ confronting the trust fund is that it relies heavily on revenues fro$federal gas ta'es. ,ut as )&eri%ans dit%h their gas gue&o%rats re%ogni


11/61


VOSS

Forten*erry said the trust fund shortage is a thorny issue that &ust *e addressed0 *ut he saidthere was a pretty weak link *etween it and the 9ostal Servi%e2s Saturday delivery. +hat is ape%uliar pa%kage0 Forten*erry said.+)nd @ohanns said he doesn2t see the 9ostal Servi%e plangetting through the Senate.+3e pointed instead to another proposal ai&ed at en%ouraging%orporations to *ring &oney they2ve parked overseas *a%k to the .S. so it %ould *e taxed. +Sen.>e* Fis%her0 ='Le*.0 said raising the gas tax or redu%ing postal delivery would *e te&porary

pat%hes. )nd she said the %orporate tax &easure %ould under&ine future efforts to overhaul thetax %ode.+Bou have to look for a long'ter& fix0 she said.+She suggested that 0ongress %ill

find a %ay to solve the shortage .

=ill ass & ublic suort8o' )*##[erry. 9oliti%s for the >allas /orning Lews. 9oll finds support for higher gas taxes to fundroadsDallas Morning News0 6!!!# ln(/ore than half of the resondents in a recent AAA oll said they %ould be %illingto ay higher gas ta'es in return for better roads.+4n a survey of 80!1 people0 )))found that t%o*thirds believe the federal govern$ent should increase its funding for

road and transortation ro


12/61


VOSS

Enc 8iart

High%ay trust fund restoration %ill ass & but biart is key toreconcile co$eting funding roosals

,chult: )*#)[/. 9oliti%s for the >etroit Lews. Federal funding %risis &ay stall /i%higan road fixes 6!6!#http$www.detroitnews.%o&arti%le8!#6!6/:=OI16!66(

)s state law&akers fu&*le to find G! *illion for %ru&*ling roads0 /i%higan fa%es a *igger potential highway %risis$ Federal funding

could dry u as early as ne't $onth. blocking ne% construction roe&o%rati% -au%us on a larger*scalehigh%ay bill9resident ,ara%k O*a&a unveiled earlier this year0 whi%h would also *olster the 3ighway rust Fund.+Foxx told reporters afterthe &eeting that the ad$inistration9s olicy is the viable one because it also reauthori:esthe e'iring surface transortation bill.+We2ve got to get past U the gi&&i%ks in transportation and really get serious

a*out trying to get a long'ter& strategy going0 Foxx said.+ 4t9s unclear %hether either lan can ass" )fter the

,oehner &eeting0 $any Reublicans %ere luke%ar$ on the roosal to cut ,aturday $aildelivery and House leaders are not likely to bring u 5ba$a9s high%ay bill .+=ep. 9eter .King0 ='L.B.0 said he is leaning against the 7O9 leadership2s proposal *e%ause he thinks it would hurt those who still rely on the 9ostal Servi%e. =ep.@ohn Fle&ing0 =';a.0 said he would likely vote against su%h a plan *e%ause he thinks &oney should *e taken fro& *ike lane and park funding *efore the9ostal Servi%e takes a hit.+3ouse >e&o%rats signaled they will offer little help in passing the 7O9 *ill. )fter the &eeting with Foxx0 -au%us -hair&anVavier ,e%erra0 >'-alif.0 told reporters the =epu*li%an plan is short'sighted0 and he said it %ould disproportionately affe%t seniors who rely &ore thanothers on a%%ess to physi%al &ail.+Our =epu*li%an %olleagues are saying that in order to replenish the funds to help return those gas tax dollars topeople so they %an see0 *a%k in their %o&&unity0 roads *uilt0 *ridges fixed0 tunnels repaired0 we have to tell other )&eri%ans that they will not get &aildelivered0 he said. his is U another %ase of =epu*li%ans saying0 U 4n order for you to win0 another )&eri%an has to lose.2+On the other hand0

5ba$a9s lan derives offsets fro$ revenue fro$ a ta' code overhaul benefitingbusinesses0 whi%h Foxx and other proponents %all ro*gro%th. business ta' refor$"+4t would not reNuire
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140616/METRO05/306160006http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140616/METRO05/306160006


13/61


VOSS

raising rates0 it also wouldn2t reNuire in%reasing defi%its0 Foxx said. We think it2s a pla%e where there %ould *e *ipartisan agree&ent.+)side fro& the

fa%t that the House M5P%ould not likely consider taking u legislation offered by5ba$aor &e&*ers of his -a*inet0 the %han%es of passing any rewrite of the tax %ode are looking in%reasingly unlikely ? esecially

before the August recess. %hen the High%ay Trust Fund is e'ected to go broke.+Still0leadersand their aides%ere confident as they began %hiing the M5P roosaluesday0

believing that by starting the rocess early. they can convince enough $e$bers on

their side of the aisle that their lan is the only one %orth voting for .

/ore evidence & funding the HTF %ill reuire a tre$endous a$ountof congressional co$ro$ise & thro%ing the lan into an already*delicate legislative balance risks derailment

=eis$an )*+[@onathan. 9oliti%s for the LB. 9lan to =efill 3ighway Fund Stokes -onfli%t in -ongress The

New York Times0 6"!# ln(=ith federal high%ay funds e&o%rat of Levada0 the &aCority leader0%ithone of the

Reublicans9 *rightest stars0 Senator =and 9aul of Kentu%ky ? and pushed against the *ipartisan leadership of the Finan%e -o&&ittee ?

%ith the clock ticking .+/r. Reid and/r. PaulareNuietly ressing for a one*ti$e ta'1holiday2 ? a spe%ial and lu%rative tax dedu%tion ? to lure $ultinational cororations to bringrofits ho$e fro$ overseas. roducing a sudden %indfall. -o&panies would *e allowed to dedu%t JIper%ent of the &oney their parent %orporations in the nited States re%eive fro& foreign su*sidiaries0 a &ove that would *ring the reasury *etween

G8 *illion and G1 *illion in the next two years0 while flooding the do$estic econo$y %ith hundreds ofbillions of dollars other%ise traed abroad.+Senator =on=yden0 >e&o%rat of Oregon0 the Finan%e-o&&ittee %hair&an0 andSenator Orrin 7. Hatchof tah0 the ranking =epu*li%an0%ant that $oney to hel s$oothassage of a broad re%rite of the ta' code"+;ast week0 they issued a s%hedule of hearings for @une and @uly that wassupposed to *uild support for a tax overhaul. hat s%hedule in%luded a shot at /r. =eid. We will also %ontinue to look for innovative ways to fix thedepleted 3ighway rust Fund and keep hard'working )&eri%ans on the Co* without diverting revenues fro& repatriation needed for tax refor&0

wording in the s%hedule said.+The sho%do%n is the first test for/r.=yden0 as he and other %o&&ittee leaders try toassert &ore power against the strong ar& of /r. =eid. )nd there is wide skepti%is& of the proposal.+Senator -harles :. S%hu&er of Lew Bork0 /r.=eid2s right'hand &an in the >e&o%rati% leadership *ut also a Finan%e -o&&ittee &e&*er0 is du*ious of si&ply tying repatriation to a te&poraryhighway funding pa%kage *e%ause he2s %on%erned it2s too short ter&0 said /att 3ouse0 a spokes&an for /r. S%hu&er.+)ides for /r. =eid said theleader was only drawing up an option *efore /r. Wyden drafted his part of a highway and infrastru%ture *ill. his de%ision is up to -hair&an Wyden0

said )da& @entleson0 a spokes&an for /r. =eid.+,ut the needs of the High%ay Trust Fund $ay be $oreressing than a re%rite of the entire ta' code" And %hat /r" Reid %ants. he oftengets.+For years now0 gasoline and diesel ta' receits have fallen as cars and trucks have

beco$e $ore fuel*efficient. even as infrastructure needs have risen. For the fis%al year that*egan in O%to*er0 the -ongressional ,udget Offi%e esti&ated that trust fund revenues would total G11 *illion0 while spending would total G#I *illion.+

)ndbythe week of uly # 0 the trust fund9s nest egg %ould di belo% B billion. the

1rudent balance2 trigger that %ould force the Deart$ent of Transortation totell states to begin slo%ing construction ro


14/61


VOSS

High%ay Trust Fund %ill run out of $oney*y the end of Septe&*er0%hich risks stoingorslowing infrastructure roel.E is pushing for an in%rease in the federal gas tax0 whi%h -ongress hasn2t raised sin%e !""1. 3ouse =epu*li%ans want to use revenue fro&ending .S. 9ostal Servi%e delivery on Saturdays to prop up the fund. Others have proposed reva&ping the funding stru%ture entirely through &ileage

fees or a &ore de%entralielaware2s governor0 for instan%e0 is proposing a state'level gas tax hike.8ut it9s not enough to $ake u for the federal role in fixing the 4'"I inter%hange$=ashington

usually ays for ; to +; ercent of federally suorted high%ay %ork.+ 0ongress

does $anage to find $oney for infrastructure in a crisis $ Federal offi%ials Nui%kly approved G8 &illion

in e&ergen%y aid to fix the tilting *ridge0 drawing fro& a reserve that2s separate fro& the 3ighway rust Fund. 8ut %hen it co$es to

long*ter$ lanning. the urgency for action disaears"

/ore evidence & changes to the high%ay trust fund areflypaperfor oliticalcriticis$ & assage reuires a careful balancing act

Turgeon ?#;[:van L. urgeon0 ;egal )sso%iate at the -ato 4nstitute @.>.niversity of Xirginia S%hool of ;aw8" ,.). ufts niversity 8#0 riple'>ividends$ oward 9igovian 7asoline axation0@ournal of ;and0 =esour%es0 Y :nviron&ental ;aw 8!0 pg lexis(!. he )&eri%an 9u*li%As it currently stands. A$ericans do not erceive cli$ate change as asevere threat. -onseNuently0A$ericans are un%illing to incur significant costs to $itigate

this risk. espe%ially if those costs co$e in the for$ of higher gasoline ta'es" [!H1( ,i$ly

ut. Othe fuel ta' is erhas one of the $ost resented in our society.Z n!JH 4t see&s that the

ublics hostility to fuel ta'es e'ceeds its general oosition to e'cise ta'es ingeneral.n!JJ whi%h suggests that oosition $ore reflects the ite$ being ta'ed than the$ethod of ta'ation. 4ndeed0 the pu*li% a%%epts other instan%es of federal govern&ent pri%e &anipulation in the na&e of e%ono&i%effi%ien%y as a &atter of %ourse. he Federal =eserve0 for exa&ple0 routinely adCusts the dis%ount rate and there*y the %ost of *orrowing to influen%e

%onsu&er pur'%hasing de%isions. his suggests that gasoline ta'ation rovokes an e$otional. rather than

an analytical. resonse . hat gasoline is widely %onsu&ed0 that pri%e drives %onsu&er preferen%e0 and that pri%es are visi*le and

volatile likely %ontri*ute to this pheno&enon. n!J" /ore i&portant still0 the car is freighted %ith notions ofOfreedo$.O given the sra%ling develo$ent of A$erican society and %idesread


15/61


VOSS

deendence on cars0 al&ost as the ex%lusive &ethod of transportation. 4ncreasing the cost of car use isseen as constraining individual freedo$ of $ove$ent . n!" 9u*li% atta%h&ent to %ars *y the pu*li% partlyexplains e%ono&i%ally ineffi%ient govern&ent poli%ies fo%used on &aking trips %leaner rather than fewer in nu&*er. 8. :le%ted =epresentatives ,ut

ublic senti$ent is only half the battle Q oliticians $ust be convinced of Pigovian

fuel ta'ations benefits as %ell . :ven &ore so than their %onstituen%ies0 short*ter$ incentives govern

the behavior of la%$akers. Z4n reality politi%ians are &oved *y %on%erns whi%h are entirely different fro& those of so%ial welfare

&axi&i


16/61


VOSS

EN0 4$act Run

The lan chokes off A$erican econo$ic gro%th &Royal says thatresults in %ar as a result of resource scarcity and increased

international tensions" our i$act defense doesn9t aly & tradecollase changes the decision calculus and causes hyer aggressiveforeign olicy" The DA out%eighs the case-

/agnitude & 4nterdeendence is a controlling i$act that accessesconflict in every theater" @, isolationis$ %ould create conflicts inflashoints across the globe" @, econo$ic cooeration is essential torevent global o%er vacuu$ & the alternative is a %reck ofsecondary nationsfightingfor o%er and influence"8re$$er and Roubini ?##[4an 5 9resident of the :urasia 9oliti%al =isk -onsulting 7roup. )nd Louriel0 9rof :%on LB.

) 7'\ero World Foreign )ffairs0 Winter 8!!. ln(Followingprevious %rises in e&erging &arkets0 su%h as the )sian finan%ial &eltdown of thelate !""s0 poli%y&akers in those e%ono&ies %o&&itted the&selves to&aintaining weak%urren%ies0 running %urrent a%%ount surpluses0 and self'insuring against liNuidity runs*ya%%u&ulating huge foreign ex%hange reserves. his strategy grew in part fro& a &istrust that the

4/F %ould *e %ounted on to a%t as the lender of last resort. >efi%it %ountries0 su%h as the nitedStates0 see su%h a%%u&ulations of reserves as a for& of trade &er%antilis&that preventsundervalued %urren%ies fro& appre%iating. :&erging'&arket e%ono&ies0 in turn0 %o&plainthat .S.fis%al and %urrent a%%ount defi%its %ouldeventually %ause the %ollapse of the .S.dollar0 even as these defi%its help *uild up the dollar assets de&anded *y those %ountriesa%%u&ulating reserves. his is a rerun of the old riffin dile&&a0 an e%ono&i% o*servation of

what happens when the %ountry that produ%es the reserve %urren%y &ust run defi%its toprovide international liNuidity0 defi%its that eventually de*ase the %urren%y2s value as asta*le international reserve. /eanwhile0 de*ates over alternatives to the .S. dollar0in%luding that of giving a greater role to Spe%ial >rawing =ights Dan international reserve asset

*ased on a *asket of five national %urren%ies %reated *y the 4/F to supple&ent gold and dollarreservesE0 as -hina has re%o&&ended0 are going nowhere0 largely*e%auseWashington hasno interest in any &ove that would under&inethe %entral role of the dollar. Lor is it likelythat -hina 2s yuanwillsoon supplant the dollaras a &aCor reserve %urren%y0*e%ausefor the

yuan to do so0 ,eiCing would have to allow its ex%hange rate to flu%tuate0 redu%e its%ontrolson %apital inflows and outflows0 li*erali


17/61


VOSS

power was defined pri&arily*yrelative differen%es in &ilitary %apa*ility. 4t was not&arket'&oving innovation or %ultural dyna&is& that *olstered the Soviet *lo%2s pro&inen%e

within a *ipolar international syste&. 4t was raw &ilitary power. oday0 it is the %entrality of-hina and other e&erging powers to the future of the glo*al e%ono&y0 not the nu&*ers oftheir %iti


18/61


VOSS

)&eri%an e%ono&i% weakness under%uts .S. leadership a*road. 5ther countries

sense our %eakness and %onder about our urorted decline . 4f this ercetion

beco$es $ore %idesread 0and the %ase that we are in de%line *e%o&es &ore persuasive0

%ountries will *egin to take a%tions that refle%t their skepti%is& a*out )&eri%aTs future.)llies and friends will dou*t our %o&&it&ent and &ay pursue nu%lear weapons for their

own se%urity0 for exa&ple adversaries %ill sense oortunity and be less restrained

in thro%ing around their %eight in their o%n neigh*orhoods. he%ru%ial 9ersian

7ulfand Western 9a%ifi% regionswill likely *e%o&e less sta*le. /aCor war will *e%o&e&ore likely.+ When running for president last ti&e0 O*a&a eloNuently arti%ulated *ig foreignpoli%y visions$ healing )&eri%aTs *rea%h with the /usli& world0 %ontrolling glo*al %li&ate%hange0 dra&ati%ally %ur*ing glo*al poverty through develop&ent aid0 &oving toward a worldfree of nu%lear weapons. hese were0 and re&ain0 worthy if elusive goals. 3owever0 for O*a&a

or his su%%essor0 there is now a &u%h &ore urgent *ig'pi%ture issue$ restoring .S.

e%ono&i% strength. Nothing else is really ossible if that funda$ental rereuisite

to effective foreign olicy is not reestablished .


19/61


VOSS

>'t" >con 4L

Funding the HTF is key to a ton of


20/61


VOSS

re%ession. 4n parti%ular0 infrastructure i$rove$ents are essential for e'ort

co$etitiveness in agricultural co$$odities trade. an e'ort*oriented industry

that heavily relies on ti$ely and efficient transortation of cros fro$ roduction

regions to rocessing andor transshi$ent locations and e'orting orts . Further0understanding the extent to whi%h the i&proved transport infrastru%ture &ay %ontri*ute to the %ountry2s export %o&petitiveness is parti%ularly

essential in light of the grain export %o&petitor %ountries2 De.g.0 ,ra -orporation. Li%holas is an asso%iate e%ono&ist at =)L> working in the areas ofenviron&ental e%ono&i%s and international develop&ent0 in parti%ular on energy and %li&ate%hange. 3e was a lead author on the Fourth )ssess&ent =eport produ%ed *y the4ntergovern&ental 9anel on -li&ate -hange. /artin is senior prin%ipal resear%her at the =)L>-orporation and is professor e&eritus of %ity and regional planning and of %ity and regional

planning at the niversity of -alifornia0 ,erkeley. 9utting a ax on Oil.http$pw&.sagepu*.%o&.proxy.li*.u&i%h.edu%ontent!H18I6.full.pdf^ht&l(The need for high%ay e'enditures in the @nited ,tates is increasing %hilerevenues fro$ traditional funding sources. ta'es on gasoline and diesel. aredecliningDFigure !E. )s )&eri%ans %ontinue to drive0 *ut &otor vehi%les *e%o&e &ore fuel

effi%ient0 this funding ga %ill continue to %iden 0 presenting -ongress with the %hallenge

of finding a new way to relia*ly fund transportation infrastru%ture. :a%h year0 .S. %iti


21/61


VOSS

are not %urrently paid *y %onsu&ers of oil. An oil ta' is an effective $echanis$ through

%hich to shift these costs fro$ the ublic at large to those %ho i$ose these costs

on society. he oil tax we propose is a per%entage tax applied to do&esti% oil0 i&ported oil0

and i&ported oil produ%ts that would *e periodi%ally adCusted to refle%t %hanges in the pri%e ofoil so that suffi%ient revenues are generated to %over govern&ent expenditures and external

%osts.! 4t %ould be designed to rise %ith inflation and to increase to cover increasedcosts of federally funded roads and surface transortation. %hile not overly

burdening consu$erswhen oil pri%es rise. We also dis%uss potential distri*utionali&pli%ations for the tax0 in%luding how the *urden would *e shared *etween %onsu&ers andprodu%ers0 how &u%h of the tax foreign produ%ers &ight *ear0 and whi%h in%o&e andgeographi% groups would *e likely to pay the tax. he arti%le is organievelop&ent 9rogra& at the=)L> -orporation. Li%holas is an asso%iate e%ono&ist at =)L> working in the areas ofenviron&ental e%ono&i%s and international develop&ent0 in parti%ular on energy and %li&ate%hange. 3e was a lead author on the Fourth )ssess&ent =eport produ%ed *y the4ntergovern&ental 9anel on -li&ate -hange. /artin is senior prin%ipal resear%her at the =)L>-orporation and is professor e&eritus of %ity and regional planning and of %ity and regionalplanning at the niversity of -alifornia0 ,erkeley. 9utting a ax on Oil.http$pw&.sagepu*.%o&.proxy.li*.u&i%h.edu%ontent!H18I6.full.pdf^ht&l(There are co$elling reasons to consider alternatives to e'isting $otor fuel ta'es

in the @nited ,tates. 0urrent federal gasoline and diesel ta'esJthe largestcontributors to @"," federal transortation fundingJare not inde'ed to inflation.and have not been raised to roduce sufficient revenue to cover federaltransortation infrastructure costs")n alternative0 explored in this arti%le0 is to repla%eexisting fuel taxes with a single tax on oil and i&ported refined oil produ%ts. )n oil tax wouldhave appealing features- 4t is likely to be relatively easy to ad$inister because it %ould

be collected at the refinery or ortsQH it %ould sread the cost of transortationfunding across a larger ool of users than current ta'es doQ it could account for thee'ternal costs associated %ith oil roduction and consu$tionQ and it could bedesigned in %ays to rovide consistent funding for transortation infrastructureand other sending riorities" 8y tying ta' rates to aroriated $onies fortransortation sending. and ad


22/61


VOSS

the tax is to address the external %osts of oil %onsu&ption. We have provided esti&ates of so&eof environ&ental0 &a%roe%ono&i%0 and national se%urity %osts0 *ut &ore detailed analysis would

*e needed to fully Custify *oth a parti%ular external %ost esti&ate and the appropriate *alan%e*etween revenue goals and redu%ing externalities. Finally0 Cust as gasoline tax revenues fall as%ars *e%o&e &ore fuel effi%ient0 an oil tax would *e su*Ce%t to the sa&e revenue li&itations.J-onseNuently0 an oil tax would likely *e one part of a &ore %o&plete transportation funding

approa%h0 whi%h %ould in%lude poli%y instru&ents like X/ taxes to a%%ount for fuel effi%ien%yand lo%al externalities. We also a%knowledge that existing fuel taxes %ould *e adCusted to takeadvantage of so&e of the features we have proposed for an oil tax. 4n parti%ular0 the gasoline anddiesel taxes %ould *e %onverted to an adCusta*le0 per%entage *ased syste&. 4n this way0 revised

versions of existing fuel taxes %ould adCust auto&ati%ally for inflation andor *e adCustedperiodi%ally to provide suffi%ient revenue for transportation expenditure. 4t is difficult toassess %hether changing the e'isting ta' structure %ould be $ore or less oliticalfeasible than i$lanting a ne% ta' although it is ossible that it %ould be easier tocreate an oti$al ta' 1fro$ scratch2 than trying to ad


23/61


VOSS

HTF Mood- >nergy 4$act

4ncreasing funding to $ake the HTF solvent %ould transform thenature of @, energy olicy and bolsters energy dilo$acy

Turgeon ?#;[:van L. urgeon0 ;egal )sso%iate at the -ato 4nstitute @.>.niversity of Xirginia S%hool of ;aw8" ,.). ufts niversity 8#0 riple'>ividends$ oward 9igovian 7asoline axation0@ournal of ;and0 =esour%es0 Y :nviron&ental ;aw 8!0 pg lexis(,ignificantly increasing federal ta'es on gasoline %ould generate results vastlysuerior to those roduced by current energy olicies . While politi%ally unpopular0 su%h Pigovian ta'esro$ote econo$ic efficiency. 4n so doing0 a &eaningful federal gasoline tax has the potential to yield a t riple'dividend *y [!I"( si&ultaneously i&proving the nited StatesT e%ono&y0 furtheringnational se%urity0 and inhi*iting %li&ate %hange. nJI he s%ientifi% %onsensus on glo*al war&ing a%%epts that redu%ing greenhouse gas e&issions fro& fossil fuel %o&*ustion is ne%essary to ste& the tide of glo*al war&ing0 and th at i&posing 9igovian taxes wouldfurther this goal. 3owever0 4 argue that su%h taxes0 *y redu%ing do&esti% oil de&and and %onsu&ption0 would *enefit the nited StatesT national se%urity outlook and e%ono&y as well. 4&portantly0 these *enefits would in%rease the nited StatesT relative power in

the world0 and would a%%rue even if fuel taxes were i&posed unilaterally. ). :%ono&i% :ffi%ien%y /any %o&&entators have noted that raising gasoline ta'es %ould increaseecono$ic efficiency by forcing drivers to reali:e the true costs of their driving . 3istori%ally0govern&ent poli%y has per&itted )&eri%ans to externaliavid 9opp %on%luded0 he &ost signifi%ant result is the strong0 positive i&pa%t energy pri%es have on new innovations. his finding suggests that environ&ental taxes and regulations not only redu%e pollution *y shifting *ehavior away fro&

pollutingactivities but also encourage the develo$ent of ne% technologies that $akeollution control less costly in the long run . /y results also &ake %lear that si&ply relying on te%hnologi%al %hange as a pana%ea for environ&ental pro*le&s is not enough.There $ust be so$e $echanis$ in lace that encourages ne% innovation" n!!1 9opp also noted thatwith respe%t to alternative transportation fuels and vehi%les0 Zthe pri%e elasti%ities found suggest [that( the rea%tion of the resear%h %o&&unity to a %hange in poli%y0 su%h as a %ar*on tax0 will *e swift0 and that higher pri%es would Nui%kly lead to a shift towardenviron&entally friendly innovation.Z n!!# #. ;essons ;earned hese possi*ilities de&onstrate the short%o&ings of %urrent poli%ies. n!!I )s opposed to govern&ent edi%ts0 Zit is the free &arket that is effi%ient0 spontaneously effi%ient.Z n!!6 herefore0 the syste&i%nature of the nationTs energy %risis indi%ates that law&akersT should not *e in the *usiness of deter&ining the [!61( *est solution0 *ut should leave that to the &arket. n!!H While &arket prin%iples alone &ay not provide a universal %ure'all to govern&ent poli%ypro*le&s0 the Cudi%ious appli%ation of &arket for%es would provide signifi%ant gains in this %ase. n!!J ,. Lational Se%urity ,enefits 9igovian gas taxation has the potential to dra&ati%ally i&prove the nited StatesT national se%urity. >e%reasing de&and for gasolinewill redu%e the vulnera*ility of the nited States to pri%e sho%ks in international petroleu& &arkets. ;ess exposure to su%h volatility would de%rease the nationTs sus%epti*ility to disruptions in supply %aused *y for%es outside the nationTs %ontrol0 su%h as weather orgeopoliti%s. One su%h for%e0 O9:-0 would lose influen%e over the nited States as the )&eri%an thirst for oil su*sides. n!!" Su%h sta*ility furthers national se%urity0 *ut there are other *enefits as well. !. Shifting er&s'of'rade axing gasoline would alter the t er&sof international trade in favor of the nited States. n!8 >e%reasing the do&esti% de&and for gasoline would &ake alternative do&esti% sour%es of transportation %o&paratively &ore attra%tive to )&eri%an %onsu&ers0 %ausing the foreign oil industry to %ontra%t anddo&esti% alternative fuel industries to expand. )s a result0 )&eri%an industries and produ%ts would *e%o&e &ore %o&petitive vis'a'vis foreign %o&petitors. n!8! 4n response0 O9:- would %ut oil pri%es. his Zter&s of trade effe%tZ would shift part of the %ost ofgasoline taxes onto foreign produ%ers of oil n!88 and result in &ore &oney spent do&esti%ally0 sti&ulating e%ono&i% a%tivity. herefore0 the e%ono&i%ally'opti&al fuel tax &ay *e greater than one &erely intended to %o&pensate for th e environ&ental har& %aused*y fossil fuel %o&*ustion. n!81 he national se%urity of the nited States would *enefit fro& this trade effe%t as a result of the negative effe%ts that de%reased oil revenue would likely have on exporters of oil. ;ower profits redu%e an oil exporting regi&eTs a*ility toexert its will internationally and &ay weaken its %ontrol do&esti%ally. his produ%es a relative *enefit for the nited States0 whose international interests %onfli%t with %ertain oil exporters0 su%h as =ussia0 Xene


24/61


VOSS

achieved through Pigovian gasoline ta'es %ould enable the @nited,tates to articiate ininternational cli$ate change initiatives to its advantage . 4f the @nited ,tates %ereto roose $ultilateral Pigovian ta'es on gasoline. it see$s likely that %orldconsu$tion of fossil fuels %ould decrease. esecially considering that $anystates actively subsidi:e gasoline at resent . n!1# his would provide worldwide &onetary gains in effi%ien%y. Keeping in &ind that the developing world would *ear the*runt of %li&ate %hangeTs negative effe%ts0 and that securing the @nited ,tates articiation is vital to ensuring that

$eaningful e$ission reductions are achieved. the @nited ,tates could %ork tostructure international agree$ents in such a %ay as to gain a disroortionatea$ount of the efficiency surlus0 whi%h %ould take the for& of lu&p'su& pay&ents. n!1I ,ut even in t he a*sen%e of universal parti%ipation and su%h wealth transfers0 proCe%tions indi%ate that thee%ono&i% gains fro& 9igovian taxes are largest when also i&posed *y other %ountries. n!16 :ven if i&posed unilaterally0 though0 9igovian taxes would likely provide the nited States with %ost savings in foreign poli%y.As anadditional %eaon in the nations arsenal. cli$ate change agree$ents resent anoortunity for the @nited,tates to i$ose its %ill on other countries" >iplo&ats &ight shape %li&ate %hange [!66( initiatives tothe nited StatesT advantageby ro$oting A$erican*$ade technologies0 for exa&ple. /oreover0 su%h %ooperative international engage&ent is relatively inexpensive in%o&parison to exer%ises of &ilitary &ight0 thus providing an opportunity to redu%e or realign &ilitary spending. Lot only is the pen &ightier than the sword it is %heaper to use.

The alternative to effective @, energy dilo$acy is a host ofinternational conflicts that devastate A$erican rogressTurgeon ?#;

[:van L. urgeon0 ;egal )sso%iate at the -ato 4nstitute @.>.niversity of Xirginia S%hool of ;aw8" ,.). ufts niversity 8#0 riple'>ividends$ oward 9igovian 7asoline axation0@ournal of ;and0 =esour%es0 Y :nviron&ental ;aw 8!0 pg lexis(-. Foreign 9oli%y >etri&ent 4n !J8J0 @a&es /adison expressed his fear that insuffi%ient govern&ental intervention in e%ono&i% &atters &ight *etray

)&eri%an interests0 writing0 Z[a( nation leaving its foreign trade0 in all %ases0 to regulate itself0 &ight soon find it regulated0 *y other nations0 into asu*servien%y to a foreign interest ... .Z n#H @ust this has o%%urred in petroleu& &arkets. Zo the extent O9:- %ould &aintain high and sta*le world oilpri%es0 it repla%ed the [govern&ent supply( and i&port %ontrols that had set the ter&s for energy &arkets in the nited States for &any [!I#( years

*efore the [!"H1 energy( %risis.Z n#J Sin%e the %risis0 O9:-'%ontrolled petroleu& &arkets have %ost )&eri%ans dearly. n#" :nsuring a steady supply offoreign oil reNuires enor&ous foreign poli%y expenditures0 whi%h &ust *e %onsidered in evaluating the appropriateness of %urrent energy poli%ies. !.

Wealth ransfers to O9:- 4n 8H alone0 the nited States i&ported over #." *illion *arrels of oil. nI )t an average pri%e of G 66.8" per *arrel0 nI!this works out to over G 18I *illion sent overseas. Lot only do these expenditures represent lost opportunities for the do&esti% e%ono&y0 nI8 *ut &u%hof this &oney was sent to %ountries su%h as =ussia0 4ran0 and Xene


25/61


VOSS

HTF Mood- 0li$ate 4$act

0li$ate change is occurring no% and risks e'tinction & increasingfunding for the HTF $akes fuel $ore e'ensive and results in way

less traffic. %hich solvesAbelko ?+[)da&0 @.>. -andidate0 niversity of 4owa -ollege of ;aw0 8! ,.).0 Wake Forest niversity0Why the 7overn&ent Should >rink Bour /ilkshake$ he -ase for =estru%turing the Federal7as ax0 he @ournal of -orporation ;aw Winter0 8"0 1I 4owa @. -orp. ;. 1"1 pg lexis(0li$ate change is hu$an*induced. caused by e$issions of greenhouse gases DMHMsE0 pri&arily%ar*on dioxide D-OD8EE. n!#Although the burning of coal is the largest fossil fuel source of MHMe$issions. n# oil burned ri$arily through the transortation sector also

contributes $aterially to cli$ate change . he :nergy 4nfor&ation )d&inistration indi%ates that a&ong end'use

se%tors0 the transort sector is resonsible for roughly one*third of all carbon dio'idee$issionsand Zhas led all .S. end'use se%tors in e&issions of %ar*on dioxide sin%e !""".Z n!6 :nergy experts0 therefore0 reason that Zthein%reasing levels of e&issions fro& transport suggest that stronger &itigation efforts &ay *e ne%essary for this se%tor.Z n!H 8ecause of its

otentially dire conseuences. cli$ate change $ust be taken seriously. n!J 9roCe%tions as tothe extent of war&ing and its %onseNuen%es vary in degree and relia*ility. n!"A consensus of scientific authorities0however0 indicates that ositive[1"H( feedbacks nE; and cli$atic oscillation as a result of

at$osheric %ar$ing $ay be sudden and severe 0 n8! triggeringa nu&*er of undesira*le events su%h

as a%utebiodiversity loss0 n88 sea*level rise. nEC enhanced droughts and floods0 n8#disrution of the Atlantic 0urrent0 n8I the sread ofinse%t'*orne and other diseases.n86 andinternational conflicts over adversely affected agricultural. land. and %aterresources. n8H aken together0 these factors could ulti$ately cul$inate in the e'tinction ofan alar$ing nu$ber of secies and stress the global econo$y to its breaking oint .n8J /any of these proCe%tions &ay see& unduly alar&ist however0 un%ertainty as to the extent of the %onseNuen%es of glo*al %li&ate %hange is areason to err on the side of %aution. n8"


26/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Turns 0hina

>cono$ic collase turns chinaMreen and ,chrage +D/i%hael @ 7reen is Senior )dvisor and @apan -hair at the -enter for Strategi% and 4nternationalStudies D-S4SE and )sso%iate 9rofessor at 7eorgetown niversity0 Steven 9 S%hrage is the -S4SS%holl -hair in 4nternational ,usiness and a for&er senior offi%ial with the S rade=epresentativeTs Offi%e0 State >epart&ent and Ways Y /eans -o&&ittee0 /ar%h 860 4t2s Lot@ust the :%ono&y0 )sia i&es0http$www.ati&es.%o&ati&es)sianA:%ono&yK-86>k!.ht&lEThe greater danger %ith 0hina is not an eclising of @, leadershi. but insteadthe kind of shift in strategic orientation that haened to aan after the MreatDeression. aan %as arguably not a revisionist o%er before #+CE and soughtinstead to converge %ith the global econo$ythrough open trade and adoption of thegold standard. + he%orld%ide deressionand prote%tionis& of the !"1s devastatedthenewly exposed aanese econo$y and contributed directly to $ilitaristic andautarkic olicies in Asiaas the @apanese people rea%ted against what %ounted for

glo*ali


27/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- 0li$ate 0hange =ar$ing

>cono$ic do%nturn causes destroys anti*cli$ate change effortsDa%son ?,ill >awson0 Bale Foru& on -li&ate -hange and the /edia0 !!'!!0 8J0 O*a&a0 Finan%ial-risis0 -li&ate -hange$ =o%ky =oad )head for @ournalis& and -li&ate0 online$http$www.yale%li&ate&ediaforu&.org8J!!o*a&a'finan%ial'%risis'and'%li&ate'%hange

After3urri%ane Katrina0 )n 4n%onvenient ruth0 the 8H reports *y the 4ntergovern&ental 9anel on -li&ate -hange0 and other eventsushed the cli$ate change issue high er on the ublic agenda . it $ay have see$edthat it %ouldn9t soon slide backdown.+That assu$tion%as %eakenedearlier this year%hensoaring gasoline rices ro$tedele%tion'year sloganeering keyed to pu*li% %on%erns ' drill here0 drill now0 pay less0 and drill.

baby. drill.+he %ongressional defeatin @une ofthe Lieber$an*=arner%li&ate *ill%as attributedin largepart to %orries a boutextra coststhat its %ap'and'trade progra& would i&pose for %utting greenhouse e&issions0 as high pri%es at thepu&p provided an uneasy *a%kdrop.+Then ca$e theearly fall financial $eltdo%n0 sto%k &arket %ollapses0 and *ailouts0

with predi%tions of a deep re%ession. 4ntensifying e%ono&i% worries0 %o&*ined with %as%ading #!DkE a%%ounts0 sharpened the finan%ial fo%us of a

presidential ra%e in whi%h *oth &aCor %andidates had endorsed the %ap'and'trade %on%ept.+With the ele%tion now past0 econo$y*relateduestions loo$ large for the cli$ate issueand for reporters %overing it. Will the e%ono&i% and finan%ial %risis and its

%ontinuing after'effe%ts e%lipse %on%erns a*out %li&ate %hange0 at least for the foreseea*le future0 relegating %li&ate %hange0 at *est0 to the inside pagesP+;ess %overageP >ifferent %overageP /ore attention to the interse%tion of %li&ate0 energy0 e%ono&y0 and politi%sP Fewer stories on the s%ien%e of%li&ate %hange0 and &ore on poli%y'fo%used de*ates a*out strategies for dealing with itP+i&e &agalliot ?De%ono&i%s editor0 he 7uardian0 D;arry0 -an a dose of re%ession solve %li&ate %hangeP0 he7uardian0 )ugust 8I0http$www.guardian.%o.uk*usiness8Jaug8Ie%ono&i%growth.glo*alre%essionE9oliti%ally. recessions are not helful to the cause of environ$entalis$" 0li$atechange is relaced by concerns about une$loy$ent and sti$ulating gro%th"o *efair0 politi%ians respond to what they hear fro& voters$ 7ordon ,rownTs survival as pri&e&inister depends on how well his pa%kage of e%ono&i% &easures is re%eived0 not on what hedoes or doesnTt do to li&it greenhouse gases. ;ooking *a%k0 it is %lear that every advance inthe green $ove$ent has coincided %ith eriod of strong gro%th * the early #+K;s.the late #+;s and the first half of the current decade" 4t %as tough enough to get

%orld leaders to $ake tackling cli$ate change a riority %hen the %orld econo$y%as e'eriencing its longest eriod of sustained gro%th- it %ill be $ightily difficultto ersuade the$ to take $easures that $ight have a da$en gro%th %hile the

dole ueues are lengthening " hose &ost likely to suffer are workers in the &ost &arginalCo*s and pensioners who will have to pay perhaps 8 of their in%o&e on energy *ills. 3en%e0recession does not offer even a te$orary solution to the roble$ of cli$atechange and it is a fantasy to i$agine that it does. he real issue is whether it is possi*leto %hallenge the Zgrowth'at'any'%ost &odelZ and %o&e up with an alternative that isenviron&entally *enign0 e%ono&i%ally ro*ust and politi%ally feasi*le. 3itting all three *uttons is&ightily diffi%ult *ut atte&pting to do so is a he%k of a lot &ore %onstru%tive than waiting forindustrial %apitalis& to %ollapse under the weight of its own %ontradi%tions.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/25/economicgrowth.globalrecessionhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/25/economicgrowth.globalrecession


28/61


VOSS

>cono$ic decline derails cli$ate change solutions5konski and 8oin ?[Kendra and -aroline. :nviron&ent 9rogra& at the 4ntl 9oli%y Letwork. 9rote%tionis& /ay *e3ar&ful to )ll 4nternational 9oli%y Letwork0 81J ln(he idea *ehind su%h rotectionis$is to %reate a Zlevel playing fieldZ '' where :uropean and

)&eri%an produ%ers are not disadvantaged *y their self'i&posed restri%tions on greenhouse gase&issions. ,ut instead of leveling the playing field0 this ga&e%ould artificially $ake alllayers one*legged and one*ar$ed" The benefits of trade %ould be relaced by

losses in consu$er %elfare and environ$ental degradation . Whereas the

*enefi%iaries of li*erali


29/61


VOSS

green. har$s the vast $a


30/61


VOSS

de&o%rati% powers. 4n *oth trade and %li&ate %hange negotiations0 the nited States &ustaddress the seNuen%ing dile&&a that is0 when developing %ountries will not a%t untilindustrial %ountries do. 9rogress &ay *e possi*le *y extending the ti&efra&es fordeveloping %ountries2 %o&plian%e in ex%hange for a &eaningful redu%tion target0 and *yesta*lishing that they are not expe%ted to a%t until industrial %ountries have done their

part. ;eadership in these two key arenas reNuires understanding that )&eri%ans areprepared to support international institutions0 even if they don2t want world *odies thathave a life of their own and an ever'expanding agenda.Keeping a fo%us on %ore%o&peten%ies is %riti%al0 parti%ularly as these two issues have *egun to %ross with one another.!#4t would help to see the institutions as servi%e providers to national govern&ents0 not as glo*al

*odies that will usurp the right of de&o%rati% nations to legislate for the&selves. On trade0 this&eans %ontinuing to open the pro%ess to interested o*servers.9arti%ipation of%orporations0 far&ers0 and L7Os is essential to &aking trade law within nations. hey shouldhave as open a view as possi*le of what happens within WO negotiations and disputepanels. On %li&ate0 it &eans lowering the treaty'&aking *ar for the nited States and&aking sure that key developing %ountries not only allow other developing %ountries totake on *inding li&its0 *ut that the leading ones *egin to %o&&it to &eaningful

redu%tions. he next 9resident &ust re'esta*lish )&eri%a2s standing as a leader inaddressing glo*al %hallenges. hat leadership starts with a%tions at ho&e.3ow &u%hsupport a treaty or agree&ent has when it %o&es to the -ongress should depend not Cust on

what pu*li%'opinion polls say at the ti&e0 *ut on how &u%h politi%al %apital the White 3ousehas invested in *ringing the %iti


31/61


VOSS

a&*ition to lift &illions out of poverty0 %ur* ri%h %ountriesT ruinous far& support and open

&arkets for %ountless goods and servi%esE that is at stake. 4n the long run0the la%k of%o&&it&ent to &ultilateral trade that sank the >oha round this week will also start to%orrode the trading syste& as a whole.TZo &e0the %ollapse of the >oharound of tradetalks de&onstrates that the international syste& is not as resilient as it %ould or should *e. 4t

also indi%ates the a*Ce%t failure of leadership *y developed nations in putting forth avision and paradig& to lift the less developed nations into a position where they %an *efully integrated nations sharing in the *enefits of glo*alioha round of talks0 whi%h *egan in 8!0 say a deal would have

*een a *ulwark against prote%tionist senti&ents that are likely to spread as e%ono&i% growthfalters in &u%h of the world. he failure also delivers a *low to the %redi*ility of the World rade

Organi


32/61


VOSS

here is no dou*t that trade regulations are not0 and %annot *e0 a su*stitute forenviron&ental regulations. rade0 and the WO tool*ox of trade rules &ore spe%ifi%ally0%an ? at *est ' offer no &ore than part of the answer to %li&ate %hange. 4t is not in theWO that a deal on %li&ate %hange %an *e stru%k0 *ut rather in an environ&ental foru&0su%h as the nited Lations Fra&ework -onvention on -li&ate -hange. Su%h an agree&ent

&ust then send the WO an appropriate signal on how its rules &ay *est *e put to theservi%e of sustaina*le develop&ent in other words0 a signal on how this parti%ulartool*ox of rules should *e e&ployed in the fight against %li&ate %hange. )*sent su%h asignal0 %onfusion will persist on what would %onstitute an appropriate response *y&ultilateral trading syste&.;et us take the issue of the international trading syste&Ts %ar*onfootprint for instan%e. /u%h is said in the press everyday a*out the %ar*on footprint ofinternational transportation. 4n fa%t0 a new and e&erging %on%ept is that of food &iles. 4nother words0 the desire of %onsu&ers in %ertain %ountries to %al%ulate the %ar*on e&itted in the%ourse of international transportation0 with &any already drawing the %on%lusion that it &ay *e

*etter to DNuote unNuoteE si&ply produ%e goods at ho&e to &ini&i


33/61


VOSS

environ&ental %ontext &ust *e set for trade. 4n other words0energy &ust *e properlypri%ed0 and produ%tion pro%esses adCusted a%%ordingly. 4t would then *e in%u&*entupon the trading syste& to respond to su%h environ&ental rules as soon as they are%rafted. he WO tool'*ox of rules %an %ertainly *e leveraged in the fight against %li&ate%hange0 and adapted if govern&ents per%eive this to *e ne%essary to *etter a%hieve

their goals. he WO has rules on produ%t standards for instan%e0 that en%ourage its&e&*ers to use the international nor&s set *y &ore spe%ialiesti&ates that green servi%es a%%ount for 6I of this &arket and green goods 1I. -li&ate%hange prevention and &itigation produ%ts and servi%es represent an i&portant proportion of

these nu&*ers. ;aun%hed within a *roader %ontext of the >oha =oundTs environ&ental%hapter0 whi%h also in%ludes issues su%h as the redu%tion of fisheries su*sidies0 andenhan%ing the &utual supportiveness *etween WO rules and &ultilateralenviron&ental agree&ents0 the negotiations on environ&ental good servi%es %oulddeliver a dou*le'win for so&e our &e&*ers. ) win for the environ&ent and a win for

trade. For a %ountry su%h as 4ndonesia0 that is a&ongst the worldTs top ! exporters of stea&%ondensers0 this &andate %an represent su%h a dou*le gain. he sa&e for 4ndia0 that is a&ongstthe worldTs top ! exporters of hydrauli% tur*ines or /alaysia that is a&ongst the worldTs top Iexporters of photovoltai% %ells or hailand that is a&ongst the worldTs top ! exporters offiltering and purifying &a%hinery for gases. Surely we should not &iss an opportunity to open&arkets for %lean te%hnology and servi%es in the >oha negotiations. ,ut0 in doing so0 we should%ogni


34/61


VOSS

said on Friday. Z4 have the sense that politi%ally there is a readiness to have another go0ZLew \ealand a&*assador -rawford Fal%oner told law&akers at an 4nter'9arlia&entary nion&eeting in 7eneva. Fal%oner0 who %hairs the World rade Organisation DWOE negotiations onagri%ulture0 said the seven e%ono&ies whose &inisters sparred in @uly over an e&ergen%y toolfor far&ers had worked hard this week to resolve that dispute. 4f those seven '' the nitedStates0 :uropean nion0 ,raoha =ound talks involving the WOTs !I1 &e&*ers%ould then resu&e. Z4n &y view0 that pro%ess needs to happen very Nui%kly0Z the far& %hair&an

said. Zhe longer you are away fro& an i&pli%it deal0 the &ore diffi%ulties you haveputting 3u&pty >u&pty *a%k together again.Z :%ono&ists *elieve a deal in the >oha=ound %ould inCe%t *illions of dollars into the glo*al e%ono&y0 potentially %reating Co*sand raising in%o&es in the developing world. ,ut &any %ountries are relu%tant to exposetheir key &arkets to &ore %o&petition0 and the talks have &issed deadline after deadline sin%ethey *egan in _atar in 8!. WO >ire%tor'7eneral 9as%al ;a&y %onvened the @uly su&&it inorder to %lin%h a *asi% deal spanning far&ing and &anufa%tured goods0 with the intention of

wrapping up >oha negotiations on %ross'*order servi%es and other trade rules *y the end of8J. he @uly talks *e%a&e ensnared on the Nuestion of when and how %ountries %ould invokea Zspe%ial safeguard &easureZ to prote%t poor far&ers when i&port volu&es spike or pri%es fall.

Other issues0 in%luding %uts to the huge su*sidies paid to .S. %otton far&ers0 were notaddressed in the talks0 whi%h %ollapsed after nine days. F=:S3 OFF:=S /exi%oTs WOa&*assador Fernando de /ateo y Xenturini told the 4nter'9arlia&entary nion session that heexpe%ted fresh offers soon in the >oha servi%es talks he &ediates. ZLext year we should *e a*leto %on%lude this =ound0Z said de /ateo0 whose na&e has %ir%ulated as a potential new %hair&anof the WOTs industrial goods talks following -anadian a&*assador >on StephensonTs return toOttawa this su&&er. WO %hief ;a&y said this week that a %ore deal in far&ing and&anufa%turing %ould *e %o&pleted *y the end of this year0 with a full deal for&alised in 8".,ut &any diplo&ats have voi%ed %on%erns a*out ra&ping up negotiations *efore a new .S.ad&inistration takes offi%e in @anuary0 given WashingtonTs stan%e &ay %hange as a result.:le%tions expe%ted next year in 4ndia and the installation of a new :uropean -o&&ission at the

end of 8" also loo& large. Still0 Fal%oner said itwas %riti%ally i&portant to %o&plete the

>oha =ound as soon as possi*le0 *oth to reinfor%e the world e%ono&y and to %lear thede%ks for another overhaul of world trade rules in light of %li&ate %hange and otherpressures. Zhe &ultilateral syste& as it relates to trade needs to ta%kle an agenda thatis *roader0Z he said. ZBour %han%es of ta%kling a *roader agenda are less likely if you arestlil trying to deal with the inherited agenda fro& >oha.Z


35/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- De$ocracy

Mro%th is a re*condition for de$ocracy & e$irically de$onstratedacross regions

Ace$oglu et al ?D:liaron0 with Si&on @ohnson0 @a&es ). =o*inson0 and 9ierre Bared. 4n%o&e and>e&o%ra%y. he )&eri%an :%ono&i% =eview0 Xol. "J0 Lo. 10 pp. JJ'J#8. @SO=.EOne of the &ost nota*le e&piri%al regularities in politi%al e%ono&y is the relationshi

bet%een inco$e er caita and de$ocracy. oday0 all O:-> %ountries arede&o%rati%0 while $any of the nonde$ocracies are in the oor arts of the

%orld0 for exa&ple su*'Saharan )fri%a and Southeast )sia. The ositive %ross'%ountryrelationshi *etween in%o&e and de&o%ra%y in the !""s is depi%ted in Figure !0

whi%h shows the asso%iation *etween the Freedo& 3ouse &easure of de&o%ra%y and login%o&e per %apita in the !""s.! his relationship is not confined solely to a cross*country co$arison" /ost %ountries were nonde&o%rati% *efore the &odern growthpro%ess took off at the *eginning of the nineteenth %entury. De$ocrati:ation ca$etogether %ith gro%th" =o*ert @. ,arro D!"""0 !6E0 for exa&ple0 su&&ariietri%h

=use%he&eyer0


36/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Develoing Nations

>cono$ic decline causes inco$e disarity and %idens globalecono$ic ineuality & that causes rolif and flis the case

Lo%n ?+)[,ernard0 /> -o'Founder0 499LW0 http$www.ippnw.org0 -rude Lu%lear Weapons9roliferation and the errorist hreat(

Lu%lear apartheid %annot endure. he sti&ulus to proliferation derives largely fro& anineNuita*le world order and the growing e%ono&i% divide *etween ri%h and poor %ountries.One fifth of the world lives on the edge of su*sisten%e. )t a ti&e of potential a*undan%e0 &orepeople are hungry than ever *efore. We end the %entury with far &ore desperately poor0

illiterate0 ho&eless0 starving0 and si%k than we *egan.Lowhere are the ineNuities &ore ineviden%e than in the health se%tor. :ight hundred &illion people are without any health %are atall. One'third of the world2s population lives in %ountries whose health %are expenditures are farless than G!8 per person per year Dthe *are &ini&u& re%o&&ended *y the World ,ankE whilethe industrialiesperation and hopelessness*reed religious funda&entalis& and provide endlessre%ruits ready to wreak vengean%e 0 if ne%essary *y self'i&&olation in the pro%ess of infli%tingunspeaka*le violen%e on others. ) nu%lear *o&* affords the %heapest and *iggest *ang for the

*u%k. Lo *la%k&ail is as %o&pelling as holding an entire %ity hostage. Lo other destru%tivedevi%e %an %ause greater so%ietal disruption or exa%t a larger hu&an toll. errorists will soonraise their sights to vapori-E 3er in 3istory of the /iddle :ast fro& el )viv niversity.

>r. ,ar served in the 4sraeli intelligen%e %o&&unity for thirty years where he held senioranalyti%al0 planning0 and diplo&ati% positions0 spe%ialir. ,ar has pu*lished a nu&*er of

*ooks and arti%les fo%using on radi%al 4sla&0 4ranian defense do%trine0 Syria0 @ordan0 and the9alestinians -an -old War >eterren%e )pply to a Lu%lear 4ranP

www.C%pa.orgtext%oldAwarAdeterren%eAnu%learAiran.pdf0 8!!() nu%lear /iddle :ast will *e very different fro& the -old War in a wide range of aspe%ts. rue0we &ay safely assu&e that the leaders and peoples of the region have no desire to *e the targetsof nu%lear weapons. 3owever0 the inherent instabilityof the region and its regi&es0 the
http://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdfhttp://www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf


37/61


VOSS

difficulty in $anaging&ultilateral nuclear tensions.the weight of religious.e$otional. and internal ressures. andthe roclivityof &any of the regi&es in theregion to%ard&ilitary adventuris$ and brink$anshi do not bode %ell forthe future

of this region once it enters the nuclear age" Nuclear %ar need not erupt as a result of a

%ons%ious de%ision *y a leadership to use nu%lear weapons. 4t is&ore likely to result fro$

escalation s%enarios0 $isinterretation of intentions of the other side due to oorintelligence and lack of co$$unication *etween antagonists0 inadvertent use. oor

%o&&and and %ontrol constraints. and underesti$ation of theother party2s resonsetonu%lear *rink&anship. Su%h *ehavior in a olynuclear environ$ent %ould be

tanta$ount to lighting a $atch in a gas deot "he %ountries of the region will pro*a*ly

*e &ore predisposed than the -old War protagonists to *randish their nu%lear weapons not onlyrhetori%ally *ut through nu%lear alerts or nu%lear tests in order to deter their ene&ies0 leading to

situations of &ultilateral nu%lear es%alation. On%e one %ountry has taken su%h &easures0 theother nu%lear %ountries of the region would pro*a*ly feel for%ed to adopt defensive

&easures0 and $ultilateral escalation %ill result .3owever0 su%h &ultilateral

escalation %ill not be $itigated by 0old =ar'type hotlinesand &eans of signaling0 and

none of the artiesinvolved%ill have escalation do$inance"his and the a*sen%e of a%redi*le se%ond strike %apa*ility &ay well strengthen the tenden%y to opt for a first strike.


38/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- >nergy 4ndeendence

Mro%th solves energyThorning ?K[/argo. 9h> in :%on0 -hief :%ono&ist for the )&eri%an -oun%il for -apital For&ation. he4&pa%t of )&eri%a2s -li&ate Se%urity )%t of 8H esti&ony *efore the -o&&ittee on the:nviron&ent and 9u*li% Works0 8H(

/any poli%y&akers overlook the positive i&pa%t that e%ono&i% growth %an have on737 e&ission redu%tions. For exa&ple0 in 860while the .S. e%ono&y grew at 1.1per%ent0 -O8 e&issions fell to I0JHH //-O80 down fro& I0"II //-O8 in 8I0 a !.1per%ent de%rease. Overall energy use only de%lined *y ." per%ent0 indi%ating the .Se%ono&y is *e%o&ing less %ar*on intensive even without &andatory e&ission %aps or%ar*on taxes. 4nternationally0 the .S. %o&pares well in ter&s of redu%ing its energyintensity Dthe a&ount of energy used to produ%e a dollar of outputE. he .S.0with its

voluntary approa%h to e&ission redu%tions0 has %ut its energy intensity *y 8 per%ent overthe !""8'8# period %o&pared to only !!.I per%ent in the : (with its &andatory

approa%h Dsee Figure 6E. Strong .S. e%ono&i% growth0 whi%h averaged over 1 per%ent peryear fro& !""8 to 8I %o&pared to a*out ! per%ent in the :0 is responsi*le for the.S.2s &ore rapid redu%tion in energy intensity in re%ent years.


39/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Food ,ecurity

Trade9s key to food stabilityMN ?[7ulf Lews. S ,ets on >oha >eal to :ase 9ri%es H8J ln(S reasury Se%retary 3enry 9aulson on uesday said the nited States and 7er&any agreedthat a breakthrough in the >oha round of trade talks%ould hel control %orld foodrice inflation.*ut high oil pri%es reNuired longer'ter& solutions. 9aulson0 speaking at a news%onferen%e in ,erlin with 7er&an :%ono&y /inister /i%hael 7los0 said the two nations agreedthere were Zno o*vious short'ter& solutionsZ to high oil pri%es. 3e added the %urrent oil pri%e

was a fun%tion of supply and de&and. ZhereTs no dou*t that *oth our %ountries as well as theworld are feeling the *urden of high oil pri%es and high food pri%es0Z 9aulson said after a*reakfast &eeting with 7los. Z=e agreed that a breakthrough in Doha %ould hel us inthe food area.O9aulson said. OPolicies that restrict trade in food roducts arenthelful"O

Doha roves that trade9s vital to food security

Reuters ?[>oha ,reakthrough would >a&pen Food 9ri%es 5 9aulson H!J ln(@"," Treasury ,ecretary Henry Paulson on Tuesday said the @nited ,tates andMer$any agreed that a breakthrough in Doha round of trade talks %ould helcontrol food inflation around the %orld. 9aulson0 speaking at a news %onferen%e in ,erlin

with 7er&an :%ono&y /inister /i%hael 7los0 also said the two %ountries agreed there were Znoo*vious short'ter& solutionsZ to high oil pri%es. 3e added the %urrent oil rice %as afunction of suly and de$and" OhereTs no dou*t that *oth our %ountries as well as the

world are feeling the *urden of high oil pri%es and high food pri%es0Z 9aulson said after a*reakfast &eeting with 7los. 3e is later &eeting with 7er&an -han%ellor )ngela /erkel and:uropean -entral ,ank %hief @ean'-laude ri%het on a five day trip to :urope and =ussia0 whererising inflation tos the olicy agenda" O=e agreed that a breakthrough in Doha

%ould hel us in the food area.O9aulson said. OPolicies that restrict trade in foodroducts arent helful" >'ort controls arent helful"O


40/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- 4ntrinsically

=e don9t have to %in that econo$ic contractions cause %ar">cono$ic gro%th is intrinsically good because it rovides an identity

& the alternative is une$loy$ent and collase of the social contract",ch%ebel ?+K[/ilton. 9rof of 9sy%h =utgers. @o* 4nse%urity as Stru%tural Xiolen%e 9ea%e and -onfli%t0 Xol1 Lo #0 >e% "H. ;exis(Psychologists and other social scientists have studied the benefits of e$loy$entover the course of $ore than half a century"Fro& these studies we have learned that0 toa %onsidera*le degree0%ork rovides us %ith our identity. self*estee$. urose inlife. structure in daily living. and social relationshis" he %onne%tion *etween theseessentials and e&ploy&ent has *een variously refle%ted in FreudTs %hara%teriahrendorf des%ri*ed full ti&e paid

work as a ZprivilegeZ that would *e availa*le to ever fewer adults D>ahrendorf0 !"JJ0 p. !##E. he&eaning of paid work %an *e viewed fro& another perspe%tive0 *y exa&ining the psy%hologi%aland physiologi%al %onseNuen%es of une&ploy&ent Dor0 at least0 the varia*les asso%iated with itE.Prolonged une$loy$ent has been found to be a threat to the %orker. the fa$ily.

and the co$$unity" 4n the @nited ,tates. %ith a #G rise in une$loy$ent.ho$icides %ere found to increase "KGQ suicides. "# GQ ad$issions to $entalhositals. "CG for $en and E"CG for %o$enQ and deaths fro$ stress*relateddisorders. al$ost EGD,renner0 !"H6E. 9ines D!"J8E reported thatin co$$unitiesaffected by $a


41/61


VOSS

in the use of te$orary %orkers is likely to e'acerbate feelings of insecurity.under$ine self*estee$. and increase stress in sousal and arental relationshis.ossibly encouraging drug abuse. For the Zte&ps0Z as for all the others in disadvantagedpositions in the la*or &arket Dor for those who have given up and are no longer in that &arketE0the conseuences due to insecurity about the future. not only about a


42/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Prolif

Turns rolifLind. ?+5 /i%hael ;ind is 9oli%y >ire%tor of the :%ono&i% 7rowth 9rogra& at the Lew )&eri%aFoundation D 3ow 4 learned to stop worrying and live with the *o&* O- !1 .http$www.salon.%o&newsopinionfeature8"!!1nu%learAweaponsE+,uerior conventional forces are the %eaons of the rich. Only the &ost advan%edindustrial states %an afford to *uild world'%lass %onventional &ilitary for%es0 and aying forthe$ is $uch easier if an econo$y is large and dyna$ic"his is good news. -ountries

with large and dyna&i% e%ono&ies tend to have relatively rational if not ne%essarily de&o%rati%govern&ents and to *e %o&&itted to the geopoliti%al status Nuo. Lacono$ic gro%th solves roliferation,urrows and Windra& "# DWillia& Y =o*ert0 0ritical /ass0 p. #"!'#"8E ;;>cono$ics isin &any respe%ts roliferation9s catalyst ")s we have noted0 econo$icdeseration drives=ussia and so&e of the for&er Warsaw 9a%t nations to eddle

%eaons and technology. he possi*ility of %onsidera*le profits or at least *alan%edinternational pay&ents also pro&pts hird World %ountries like -hina0 ,ra


43/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Relations ,ofto%er 0o$etitiveness

Mro%th9s key to innovation & vital internal linkFroning ?Ek[>enise. rade )nalyst at the -enter for 4ntl rade at 3eritage. he ,enefits of Free rade$ )7uide for 9oli%y&akers ,a%kgrounder R!1"!0 Septe&*er 8(,enefit R!$ Free trade pro&otes innovation and %o&petition.+Few people in )&eri%a today sewall their own %lothes0 grow all their own food0 *uild their own houses0 or *uy only produ%ts &adein their own states. 4t would %ost too &u%h and take too &u%h ti&e0 espe%ially sin%e )&eri%ans%an a%Nuire su%h ite&s on the open &arket with relative ease. he sa&e prin%iple of pra%ti%alityand %ost applies on an international s%ale. 4t &akes e%ono&i% sense to *uy a produ%t fro&another who spe%iali


44/61


VOSS

he de&ise of the >oha world trade talks *e%ause of splits *etween wealthy anddeveloping nations suggests other glo*al undertakings0 fro& slashing greenhouse'gase&issions to ending food'export restri%tions0 also will fa%e hurdles. :fforts at glo*al%ooperation are all grappling with the sa&e for%es$ a resurgen%e of nationalis& a%rossthe glo*e0 &us%le'flexing *y e&erging e%ono&i% giants su%h as -hina and 4ndia0 and a

fraying of the -old War ties that *ound &any developing %ountries to the .S. and:urope. Zhe way the >oha =ound %ollapsed is a preview of what weTre likely to see inother negotiations0Z said Ki&*erly :lliott0 a senior fellow for the -enter for 7lo*al>evelop&ent0 a Washington think tank. Z:&erging &arkets[su%h as -hina and 4ndia(aretaking a *ig role0Z she said0 so&eti&es el*owing out even poorer nations. Z4f the >oha=ound repeatedly fails0 this will %ast dou*t on the a*ility of all parties to find solutionsto %o&plex pro*le&s0 su%h as %li&ate %hange0 high oil pri%es and food pri%es within aglo*al fra&ework0Zsaid a %o&&entary *y -hinaTs offi%ial Vinhua news agen%y. he >oha=ound %ollapsed after -hina and 4ndia insisted on having the right to rei&pose tariffs ''or raise the& '' if there were a surge in food i&ports. 4n ter&s of i&pa%t on e%ono&i%growth0 the issues at stake in the round were fairly s&all %o&pared to the glo*al'war&ing de*ate. ;i&iting the rise of greenhouse gases %ould hit growth *y for%ingindustry to retool fa%tories and %onsu&ers to alter lifestyles. hat sa%rifi%e %ould pro&ptan even fier%er rea%tion fro& Lew >elhi and ,eiCing. he .S. is si&ilarly worried a*outhow a glo*al %li&ate'%hange regi&e would affe%t e%ono&i% growth. >uring Senatedis%ussion re%ently on a plan to %ap e&issions through a syste& of trada*le pollutionper&its0 &u%h of the fo%us was on how to penali


45/61


VOSS

unlikely to &ake it a top priority. >aniel arullo0 a 7eorgetown niversity law professor whoadvises Sen. ,ara%k O*a&a0 said Z.S. negotiators were right to walk away fro& what wasshaping up to *e a *ad deal for the nited States0Z although he said negotiators Zshould nota*andon their efforts.Z 9hilip ;evy0 an )&eri%an :nterprise 4nstitute e%ono&ist who advisesSen. @ohn /%-ain0 said the ina*ility to rea%h a deal Z%alls into Nuestion so&e of theunderpinnings of the glo*al trading syste&.Z 4nstead of glo*al deals0 pat%hwork efforts on

glo*al trade issues &ay *e%o&e the nor&. 4n another area of glo*al %on%ern '' the*arriers to food exports ere%ted *y several dooha'style talks that %all for %ountries to &ake %on%essions in onearea to &ake gains in another. One possi*le &odel is a kind of Z%oalition of the willingZapproa%h. he &odel is the 4nfor&ation e%hnology )gree&ent signed in !""60 whi%h set


46/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Terroris$

Deression $eans $ore terror recruit$ent and $otivationFandl .)dCun%t ;aw 9rofessor Washington -ollege of ;aw0 #DKevin @0 !" )&. . 4ntTl ;. =ev. IJHE4n his final spee%h in the nited Kingdo& as 9resident of the nited States0 ,ill -linton stressed$ Zwe have seen how ab


47/61


VOSS

and e$en. 8ut as $ore eole lose their


48/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- Turns Russia

Turns Russia5ckha$ ?DO%kha& =esear%h0 8J :%ono&i% >istress and 7eopoliti%al =isks0 Love&*er0+http$seekingalpha.%o&arti%le!6I68'e%ono&i%'distress'and'geopoliti%al'risksE+Russia . %hose econo$y. stock $arkets and financial syste$ have literallyi$lodedover the past few &onths0 could beco$e increasingly roble$atic if faced

%ith a rotracted econo$ic do%nturn " Thein%reasingly authoritarian and aggressiveRussian regi$e is already sho%ing signs of anger ro


49/61


VOSS

Mro%th Mood- @, Leadershi

>cono$ic decline turns the signal of @, leadershiTilford ? :arl ilford0 &ilitary historian and fellow for the /iddle :ast and terroris& withhe -enter for Xision Y Xalues at 7rove -ity -ollege0 served as a &ilitary offi%er and analyst forthe )ir For%e and )r&y for thirty'two years0 served as >ire%tor of =esear%h at the .S. )r&y2sStrategi% Studies 4nstitute0 for&er 9rofessor of 3istory at 7rove -ity -ollege0 holds a 9h.>. in3istory fro& 7eorge Washington niversity0 8J D-riti%al /ass$ :%ono&i% ;eadership or>i%tatorship0 9u*lished *y he -enter for Xision Y Xalues0 O%to*er 6 th0 )vaila*le Online athttp$www.visionandvalues.org8J!%riti%al'&ass'e%ono&i%'leadership'or'di%tatorship0

)%%essed J'81'8!!ELevertheless0 al'_aeda failed to seriously desta*iliastern >uroe could cru$ble.+) glo*al econo$iccollase %illalso increase the chance of global conflict" As econo$ic syste$s shutdo%n. so %illthe distribution syste$s for resourceslike petroleu& and food. 4t is %ertainly within the real& ofpossi*ility that nations erceiving the$selves in eril %ill0 if they have the &ilitary %apa*ility0 use force .

7/24/2019 Politics DA --- Startasdfer

politics da --- startasdfer packet

Documents