portfolio construction 01/26/09. 2 portfolio construction where does portfolio construction fit in...
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Portfolio Construction
01/26/09
2
Portfolio Construction
• Where does portfolio construction fit in the portfolio management process?
• What are the foundations of Markowitz’s Mean-Variance Approach (Modern Portfolio Theory)? Two-asset to multiple asset portfolios.
• How do we construct optimal portfolios using Mean Variance Optimization? Microsoft Excel Solver.
3
Portfolio Construction
• How do we incorporate IPS requirements to determine asset class weights?
• What are the assumptions and limitations of the mean-variance approach?
• How do we reconcile portfolio construction in practice with Markowitz’s theory?
4
Portfolio Construction within the larger context of asset allocation
• IPS provides us with the risk tolerance and return expected by the client
• Capital Market Expectations provide us with an understanding of what the returns for each asset class will be
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Portfolio Construction within the larger context of asset allocation
C1: CapitalMarket Conditions
I1: Investor’s Assets,Risk Attitudes
C2: PredictionProcedure
C3: Expected Ret,Risks, Correlations
I2: Investor’s RiskTolerance Function
I3: Investor’s RiskTolerance
M1: Optimizer
M2: Investor’sAsset Mix
M3: Returns
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Portfolio Construction within the larger context of asset allocation
• Optimization, in general, is constructing the best portfolio for the client based on the client characteristics and CMEs.
• When all the steps are performed with careful analysis, the process may be called integrated asset allocation.
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Mean Variance Optimization
• The Mean-Variance Approach, developed by Markowitz in the 1950s, still serves as the foundation for quantitative approaches to strategic asset allocation.
• Mean Variance Optimization (MVO) identifies the portfolios that provide the greatest return for a given level of risk OR that provide the least risk for a given return.
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Mean Variance Optimization
• TO develop an understanding of MVO, we will derive the relationship between risk and return of a portfolio by looking at a series of three portfolios:• One risky asset and one risk-free asset• Two risky assets• Two risky assets and one risk-free asset
• We will then generalize our findings to portfolios of a larger number of assets.
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MVO: One risky and one risk-free asset
• For a portfolio of two assets, one risky (r) and one risk-free (f), the expected portfolio return is defined as:
• Since, by definition, the risk-free asset has zero volatility (standard deviation), the portfolio standard deviation is:
frrrP RwREwRE *)1()(*)(
rrP w *
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MVO: One risky and one risk-free asset
• With the portfolio return and standard deviation equations, we can derive the Capital Allocation Line (CAL):
• Notice that the slope of this line represent the Sharpe ratio for asset r. It represents the reward-to-risk ratio for asset r.
pr
frfP
RRERRE
*])([
)(
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MVO: One risky and one risk-free asset
• With one risky and one risk-free asset, an investor can select a portfolio along this CAL based on his risk / return preference.
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MVO: Two risky assets
• With two risky assets (1 and 2), as long as the correlation between the two assets is less than 1, creating a portfolio with the two assets will allow the investor to obtain a greater reward-to-risk ratio than either of the two assets provide.
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MVO: Two risky assets
• Portfolio expected return and standard deviation can be calculated as follows:
)(*)(*)( 2211 REwREwRE P
12212122
22
21
21 2 wwwwP
12 1 ww
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MVO: Two risky assets
• Remember that the correlation coefficient can be calculated as:
Where
and n = number of historical returns used in the calculations.
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2,112
Cov
n
iii RRRR
nCov
122112,1 ))((
1
1
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MVO: Two risky assets
• These values (as well as asset returns and standard deviations) can be easily calculated on a financial calculator or Excel.
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MVO: Two risky assets
• By altering weights in the two assets, we can construct a minimum-variance frontier (MVF).
• The turning point on this MVF represents the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio. This portfolio has the smallest variance (risk) of all possible combinations of the two assets.
• The upper half of the graph represents the efficient frontier.
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MVO: Two risky assets
• The weights for the GMV portfolio is determined by the following equations:
122122
21
122122
1 2
w
12 1 ww
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MVO: Two risky and one risk-free asset
• We know that with one risky asset and the risk-free asset, the portfolio possibilities lie on the CAL.
• With two risky assets, the portfolio possibilities lie on the MVF.
• Since the slope of the CAL represents the reward-to-risk ratio, an investor will always want to choose the CAL with the greatest slope.
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MVO: Two risky and one risk-free asset
• The optimal risky portfolio is where a CAL is tangent to the efficient frontier.
• This portfolio provides the best reward-to-risk ratio for the investor.
• The tangency portfolio risky asset weights can be calculated as:
2,121
212
221
2,12221
1 *)()(*)(*)(
*)(*)(
CovrRErRErRErRE
CovrRErREw
ffff
ff
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MVO: All risky assets (market) and one risk-free asset
• We can generalize our previous results by considering all risky assets and one risk-free asset. The tangency (optimal risky) portfolio is the market portfolio. All investors will hold a combination of the risk-free asset and this market portfolio.
• In this context, the CAL is referred to as the Capital Market Line (CML).
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Investor Risk Tolerance and CML
• To attain a higher expected return than is available at the market portfolio (in exchange for accepting higher risk), an investor can borrow at the risk free-rate.
• Other minimum variance portfolios (on the efficient frontier) are not considered.
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Portfolio Possibilities Combining the Risk-Free Asset and Risky Portfolios on the Efficient Frontier
p
)E(R p
RFR
M
CML
Borrowing
Lending
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Assumptions / Limitations of Markowitz Portfolio Theory
• Investors take a single-period perspective in determining their asset allocation.
• Drawback: Investors seldom have a single-period perspective. In a multiple-period horizon, even Treasury bills exhibit variability in returns
• Possible Solutions:• Include the “risk-free asset” as a risky asset class.• If investors have a liquidity need, construct an efficient
frontier and asset allocation on the funds remaining after the liquidity need is satisfied.
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Assumptions / Limitations of Markowitz Portfolio Theory
• Investors base decisions solely on expected return and risk. These expectations are derived from historical returns.
• Drawback: Optimal asset allocations are highly sensitive to small changes in the inputs, especially expected returns. Portfolios may not be well diversified.
• Potential solutions:• Conduct sensitivity tests to understand the effect on
asset allocation to changes in expected returns.
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Assumptions / Limitations of Markowitz Portfolio Theory
• Investors can borrow and lend at the risk-free rate.
• Drawback: Borrowing rates are always higher than lending rates. Certain investors are restricted from purchasing securities on margin.
• Potential solutions:• Differential borrowing and lending rates can be easily
incorporated into MVO analysis. However, leverage may be practically irrelevant for many investors (liquidity, regulatory restrictions).
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Practical Application of MVO
• MVO can be used to determine optimal portfolio weights with a certain subset of all investable assets.
• An efficient frontier can be constructed with inputs (expected return, standard deviation and correlations) for the selected assets.
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Practical Application of MVO
• MVO can be either unconstrained, in which case we do not place any constraints on the asset weights, or it can be constrained.
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Practical Application of MVO
• Unconstrained Optimization• The simplest optimization places no
constraints on asset-class weights except that they add up to 1.
• With unconstrained optimization, the asset weights of any minimum variance portfolio is a linear combination of any other two minimum variance portfolios.
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Practical Application of MVO
• Constrained Optimization• The more useful optimization for strategic
asset allocation is constrained optimization.
• The main constraint is usually a restriction on short sales.
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Practical Application of MVO
• Constrained Optimization• We can determine asset weights using the
corner portfolio theorem. This theorem states that the asset weights of any minimum variance portfolio is a linear combination of any two adjacent corner portfolios.
• Corner portfolios define a segment of the efficient frontier.
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Practical Application of MVO
• Excel Solver is a powerful tool that can be used to determine optimal portfolio weights for a set of assets.
• To use the tool, we need expected returns and standard deviations for our assets as well as a set of constraints that are appropriate for the portfolio.
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Readings
• RB 7• RB 8 (pgs. 229-239)• RM 3 (5, 6.1.1 – 6.1.4)