presentation fy 2019-2023 five-year forecast 11-21-2017 · peak months since peak employment u.s....

Five-Year ForecastFive-Year Forecast

Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission

David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services

Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer at VBC Public Schools

Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission

David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services

Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer at VBC Public Schools

2012 REGIONAL FORECAST

Presented to:the City of

Virginia Beach

Greg GrootendorstChief EconomistNovember 21, 2017

Hampton RoadsEconomic Briefing

% Who Worked Outside County of Residence

1 35

% of People Who Have a Bachelor's Degree

1 35

Median Age 1 35

Gini Coefficient (Measure of Income Equality) 1 35

% of Renter’s Spending >30% of Income on Housing

1 35

Per Capita Income 1 35

% of Veterans in the Civilian Population

1 35

Highest Value Lowest Value

15.9 %

47.7%

26.3%

$31,622

.44

35.9

31.4%

3

1

19

5

29

25

33

HR Rank in the Comparable Metro Areas

2016 American Community Survey Data for Hampton Roads

Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking StudyPresentation to Virginia Beach

Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

Billion

s of 2

009 Dollars

Non‐ZeroAxis

4

Hampton Roads Gross ProductInflation‐Adjusted 2009 Dollars

Presentation to Virginia Beach

Annualized Percent Change in Total Employment



1.07%

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

Annu

alize

d Ch

ange in

Employmen

t(201

2 ‐2

015)

Metropolitan Areas with Population between 1 and 3 Million

U.S. Metro Area Average is 2.19%

5Presentation to Virginia Beach

Employment Decline and Recovery

‐8%

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Percen

t Job

Loss R

elative to Peak

Months Since Peak Employment

U.S. Virginia Hampton Roads

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC

Presentation to Virginia Beach 6

10‐Year Employment Change in HRSeptember 2007 – September 2017


ConstructionRetail Trade

Local GovernmentManufacturing

InformationReal Estate & Leasing

Wholesale TradeFinance & InsuranceState Government

Leisure & HospitalityAdministrative & SupportTransportation & Utilities

Other ServicesManagement

Education ServicesScientific & TechnicalFederal GovernmentHealthcare & Social

Change inEmployment


1‐Year Employment Change in HRSeptember 2016 – September 2017

Retail TradeLeisure & HospitalityReal Estate & LeasingFinance & Insurance

InformationLocal GovernmentWholesale Trade

Federal GovernmentState Government

Scientific & TechnicalEducation Services

ManufacturingOther ServicesManagementConstruction

Transportation & UtilitiesHealthcare & Social

Administrative & Support

Change inEmployment



U.S., Virginia, & Hampton Roads Unemployment Rate

(Seasonally Adjusted)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Une

mploymen

t Rate

U.S. Hampton Roads Virginia



Payroll Employment and Labor Force12 – Month Moving Average

700,000

720,000

740,000

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

860,000 Civilian Payroll Employment

Employed Civilians

Civilian Labor Force

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, HRPDC


Initial Unemployment ClaimsDeseasonalized

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Initial Claim

s per M

onth

Recessions

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, HRPDC


75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

Ratio

of H

ampton

Roa

ds PCI to

U.S. &

Virg

inia

Share of US PCI Share of Virginia PCI

Non‐ZeroAxis

Relative Per Capita Income




U.S. and Hampton Roads Real Median Family Incomes


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and HRPDC

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Income in 201

5 Dollars

Hampton Roads U.S.


Earnings Per Worker(Inflation‐Adjusted)



$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000

Salary and

Wages Per Jo

b(201

5 $s)

Hampton Roads U.S.


Annualized Real Defense Outlays(U.S. Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted)



$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Billion

s of R

eal D

ollars (2

016 $'s)

KoreanWar

War on Terror80's Cold War

BuildupVietnamWar

15

30% 41% 27%

Presentation to Virginia Beach

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Share of Total Employmen

t

Military Personnel as a Share of Hampton Roads Employment



145K Personnel

86K Personnel

Since 1990

‐ 56,800Past 10 years

‐22,600


Defense Contracts in Hampton Roads(Inflation‐Adjusted)


Source: USAspending.gov, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and HRPDC

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Millions of 2

016 Dollars

(5‐Year M

oving Av

erage)

Fiscal Year


Defense Expenditures and Statutory Budget Caps


Source: Congressional Research Office, Congressional Budget Office and HRPDC

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

Billion

s in Projected Defen

se Spe

nding

Presidents Budget, 2012 Budget Control Act, 2011 American Taxpayer Relief Act, 2012 Bipartisan Budget Act, 2013 Bipartisan Budget Act, 2015 Actual Defense Expenditures


General Cargo in Hampton Roads


Source: Port of Virginia and HRPDC

0

5

10

15

20

25

Millions of Sho

rt Ton

s

Exports Imports


Hampton Roads Employment in theLeisure and Hospitality Industry


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Employmen

t


Retail Share of Total Employment


Source: Virginia Employment Commission and HRPDC

199013.2%

201611.4%

199012.0%

201611.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

Retail Em

ploymen

t as a

Percent of

Civilian Non

‐farm

Employmen

t

HR Share U.S. Share

Non‐ZeroAxis


Hampton Roads Retail Sales and Incomes(Inflation‐Adjusted)


Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25 Personal Incomes, Billions of 2016 D

ollarsRe

tail Sales, Billions of 2

016 Dollars

Hampton Roads Retail Sales Hampton Roads Personal Incomes


Hampton Roads Retail Sales(Local Option Retail: 3‐Month Moving Average)

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

$1.9

$2.0

Billion

s of D

ollars of Sales (Seasona

lly Adjusted)

Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, HRPDC


Building Permits in Hampton Roads

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Units Permitted

5 or More Units 3 or 4 Units 2 Units 1 Unit


Closings in Hampton Roads(Seasonally‐Adjusted)


Source: Rose and Womble Residential Data Bank and HRPDC

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Total Closings

New Resales


Home Price Index

80

90

100

110

120

130

14020

07 Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

Hom

e Price Inde

x(200

0 Q1 = 10

0)

HR VA US

Sources: HRPDC and the Fair Housing Finance Agency


Per Capita Local Revenues(Inflation‐Adjusted)


Source: Auditor of Public Accounts, Weldon Cooper Center, BLS, and HRPDC

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2016

Dollars Per Cap

ita

Other Local Taxes Local Sales and Use Tax Non‐Tax Revenue Personal Property Tax Real Property Tax


Per Capita Expenditure by Category, 2016



$0$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000

Per C

apita

Expen

diture

Expenditure Category

Hampton Roads

Virginia Average


Regional Per Capita Expenditures Compared to State, 2016




0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%

Per C

apita

Expen

diture

Expenditure Category

Hampton Roads Virginia Average

Per Pupil School Spending(Inflation‐Adjusted)



$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

2015

Dollars Per Pup

il

Hampton Roads Virginia


Graduation Rates


Source: Virginia Department of Education and HRPDC

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2008*

2009*

2010*

2011*

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

2016*

2017*

4 Year Gradu

ation Ra

te

Hampton Roads

Virginia Graduation Rate

Virginia Graduation Rate‐ Cohort

* Dates are Graduation Rates Calculated Using the Cohort Method


Violent Crime


Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation and HRPDC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Violen

t Crim

e Pe

r 100

,000

Peo

ple

Hampton Roads United States

*The FBI did not report data for Hampton Roads in 2009


Poverty Rate

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Poverty Ra

te

Hampton Roads United States


Ozone Levels in Hampton Roads


Source: Virginia Department of Environmental Quality and HRPDC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ozone

Parts Per Billion

Ozone Level

Primary Standard


Hampton Roads Population


Source: Weldon Cooper Center and HRPDC

927,854

1,726,907

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Popu

latio

n

Only Year‐Over‐Year Decrease1978 ‐ 1979


Hampton Roads Population Histogram 2016



100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000

Under5years5to9years

10to14years15to19years20to24years25to29years30to34years35to39years40to44years45to49years50to54years55to59years60to64years65to69years70to74years75to79years80to84years

85yearsandover

Population

AgeCategories

FemalesMales

Greatest(silent)

Boomers

Gen X

Millen

Next..


Annualized Percent Change in Gross Domestic Product

Sources: HRPDC, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Blue Chip Economic Indicators

‐8%

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Annu

alize

d Pe

rcen

t Cha

nge

Consensus Forecast


Sources: HRPDC, HRTPO, and the U.S. Census Bureau


Conclusions?

• Hampton Roads’ economy is inextricably linked to federal expenditures

• The region continues to struggle in the wake of the Great Recession

• Hampton Roads’ currently boasts a high Quality of Life• Our investments today will set the stage for our future


City of Virginia BeachDemographic Overview

City of Virginia BeachDemographic Overview

Population with Growth Rate By Decade1980 to 2016Population with Growth Rate By Decade1980 to 2016

- 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

4.13% Annual Growth Rate




Sources: Census Bureau and Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Population By Age Segment 1980 compared to 2016Population By Age Segment 1980 compared to 2016

Source: Census Bureau

Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

Under 18 65+Source: Census Bureau

Educational AttainmentEducational Attainment

80.0%88.0% 90.4% 93.1% 93.4%

22.4% 25.5% 28.1% 31.6% 35.0%

7.7% 8.9% 10.9% 12.3%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

High School Graduate Bachleor's Degree Graduate or Professional DegreeSource: Census Bureau

Imbalance of Education and JobsImbalance of Education and Jobs

Nationally, 47% of adults over the age of 25 have an Associate’s Degree or higher

While only 27% of jobs require a degree.

Sources: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cost Burdened HousingHousing Expenses Exceed 30% of IncomeCost Burdened HousingHousing Expenses Exceed 30% of Income

26.3%30.7%

27.4%

37.6%

27.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

OwnersSource: Census Bureau

Homeowners Who Are Mortgage FreeHomeowners Who Are Mortgage Free

11.10% 11.40%13.90%

19.70%

24.90%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2016Source: Census Bureau

IncomeIncome

$11,998

$21,743 $32,331

$44,812 $52,235

$20,203

$36,271 $47,705

$64,212 $71,117

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2016Per Capita Median Household

Median Household Income Adjusted for Inflation from 2010 is $64,613. Per Capita Income Adjusted for Inflation from 2010 is $48,056.

2015 Data

Sources: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Poverty RatesPoverty Rates

13.0%10.8%

8.9% 7.9%10.3%

5.1%

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%

1980 1990 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Children Individuals ElderlyFirst 3 data points are decades

Source: Census Bureau

Students Qualifying for Free and Reduced Lunch

Students Qualifying for Free and Reduced Lunch

30.7

9%

27.1

8%

29.1

3%

31.1

3%

30.4

6%

33.1

5%

32.8

5%

36.1

8%

36.9

4%

37.7

4%

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

% o

f Stu

den

ts

Source: VBCPS Department of School Division Services, Office of Food Services

Relative Measures of Tax BurdenRelative Measures of Tax Burden

6.12%7.19%

8.57% 8.12%7.23%

9.11% 9.07%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

VirginiaBeach

Chesapeake Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Hampton NewportNews

Per Capita Expenditures as a Percentage of Per Capita Income

Source: VBCPS Department of School Division Services, Office of Food Services

Technology Changes and Impact on Revenue Technology Changes and Impact on Revenue

Telecommunications Tax – Loss of Revenue

Marketplace Fairness Act

Sales Tax – Growth in Services vs. Retail

Other – Airbnb, E-cigarettes and Uber

Telecommunications Tax – Loss of Revenue

Marketplace Fairness Act

Sales Tax – Growth in Services vs. Retail

Other – Airbnb, E-cigarettes and Uber

RevenuesRevenues

Real EstateReal Estate

$428,113,788

$599

$420

$440

$460

$480

$500

$520

$540

$560

$580

$600

$620

FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23

Millions

Budget Actual Projection

Personal Property Personal Property

$139

$132

$153

$171

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160

$170

$180


Milli

ons


Consumer Driven Revenues Consumer Driven Revenues

$9

$75

$53

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80


Milli

ons


General Sales

BPOL

Restaurant

Hotel

State Revenue State Revenue

$95

$108

$90$92$94$96$98

$100$102$104$106$108$110


Milli

ons

Expenditure AssumptionsExpenditure Assumptions

2% salary increase per year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 2% inflation 1% increase in VRS every 2 years beginning in FY 2018-19 Healthcare cost increasing by 3% from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 City CIP and Operating Budget commitments Debt based on current debt schedules and projected issuances

2% salary increase per year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 2% inflation 1% increase in VRS every 2 years beginning in FY 2018-19 Healthcare cost increasing by 3% from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 City CIP and Operating Budget commitments Debt based on current debt schedules and projected issuances

Expenses and Revenue Five Year ForecastExpenses and Revenue Five Year Forecast

$1.13 $1.15

$1.19

$1.22

$1.25

$1.28

$1.13$1.15 $1.18

$1.21

$1.24

$1.27

$1.10$1.12$1.14$1.16$1.18$1.20$1.22$1.24$1.26$1.28$1.30

FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023

Billio

ns

Expenditures Revenues

FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023

$ 109,118 $ (3,525,157) $ (6,597,800) $ (7,136,677) $ (10,115,989)

Status of Enterprise FundsStatus of Enterprise Funds

Stormwater Fund - Balanced Through Final Year of 5 Year ERU Rate Increases Slight Deficit in FY 2022-23

Water and Sewer Fund – Balanced Through FY 2020-21 Slight Deficits in FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23

Waste Management Fund – Shows Deficit in Each Year of the Forecast

Stormwater Fund - Balanced Through Final Year of 5 Year ERU Rate Increases Slight Deficit in FY 2022-23

Water and Sewer Fund – Balanced Through FY 2020-21 Slight Deficits in FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23

Waste Management Fund – Shows Deficit in Each Year of the Forecast

Schools’ Operating BudgetSchools’ Operating Budget

VBCPS’ Key Budget AssumptionsVBCPS’ Key Budget Assumptions

Other Revenue Sources

Anticipate reducing the reliance on reversion funding by $2 million each year of the forecast period until this revenue source is no longer needed to balance the School Operating budget by FY 2022-23

Other Revenue Sources

Anticipate reducing the reliance on reversion funding by $2 million each year of the forecast period until this revenue source is no longer needed to balance the School Operating budget by FY 2022-23

REVENUE HIGHLIGHTS

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

State Shared Sales Tax +2.5% +2.5% +3.0% +3.0% +3.0%

Other State Revenue +2.0% +2.5% +3.0% +3.0% +3.0%

Local Revenue (RSF) +1.97% +2.03% +2.01% +2.03% +1.96%

Federal Revenue - - - - -

Local, State and Federal Revenue This forecast reflects increases in revenue at the state and local levels and continues

to reverse the impact of significant cuts VBCPS has sustained since 2008.

VBCPS’ Key Budget AssumptionsVBCPS’ Key Budget Assumptions

Non-Personnel Expenses

All non-personnel budget line items impacted by inflation are expected to increase by approximately 2% each year of the forecast period

Capital outlay expenditures are expected to increase by approximately $450,000 to purchase five additional replacement school buses each year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23

Non-Personnel Expenses

All non-personnel budget line items impacted by inflation are expected to increase by approximately 2% each year of the forecast period

Capital outlay expenditures are expected to increase by approximately $450,000 to purchase five additional replacement school buses each year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23

EXPENDITURE HIGHLIGHTS

Personnel Services and Fringe Benefits Each year of the forecast period includes a 2% salary increase

The current Virginia Retirement System (VRS) rate of 16.32% is expected to drop by 0.64% in FY 2018-19 to 15.68% and remain flat at that rate from FY 2019-20 through FY 2022-23

VBCPS’ Budgetary Goals and ChallengesVBCPS’ Budgetary Goals and Challenges

Programmatic Priorities - expansion of existing programs or adding new programs (e.g. expansion of preschool and full-day kindergarten)

Technology - 1:1 technology initiative (access for all students)

Employee Compensation - competitive pay increases, Unified Pay Scale equity adjustments

Employee Benefits - costs associated with healthcare (pending outcome of federal legislation)

State and Federal Mandates - new financial transparency provision in the Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015 (ESSA)

Programmatic Priorities - expansion of existing programs or adding new programs (e.g. expansion of preschool and full-day kindergarten)

Technology - 1:1 technology initiative (access for all students)

Employee Compensation - competitive pay increases, Unified Pay Scale equity adjustments

Employee Benefits - costs associated with healthcare (pending outcome of federal legislation)

State and Federal Mandates - new financial transparency provision in the Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015 (ESSA)

The following list highlights examples of factors that place considerable pressure on the School Operating budget.

VBCPS’ Budgetary Goals and ChallengesVBCPS’ Budgetary Goals and Challenges

Lagging State Funding - state budget allocates nine percent less on K-12 instruction than it did in 2005

Life Cycle Needs - school buses, white fleet vehicles, copiers/multifunction devices and replacement technology equipment

Structurally Flawed Operating budget strategy - FY 2017/18 marks the eighth consecutive year VBCPS is relying on one-time reversion funds for ongoing expenses ($8.8 million)

Enrollment and demographics - slow decline in student enrollment projected to continue

Lagging State Funding - state budget allocates nine percent less on K-12 instruction than it did in 2005

Life Cycle Needs - school buses, white fleet vehicles, copiers/multifunction devices and replacement technology equipment

Structurally Flawed Operating budget strategy - FY 2017/18 marks the eighth consecutive year VBCPS is relying on one-time reversion funds for ongoing expenses ($8.8 million)

Enrollment and demographics - slow decline in student enrollment projected to continue

VBCPS’ Forecasted Revenues and ExpendituresVBCPS’ Forecasted Revenues and Expenditures

FY 2017-18Adopted

FY 2018-19Forecast

FY 2019-20Forecast

FY 2020-21Forecast

FY 2021-22Forecast

FY 2022-23Forecast

Revenue Sharing Formula* 427,710,350 436,149,554 444,983,377 453,926,729 463,125,190 472,179,891 Schools Use of Sandbridge TIF 409,000 409,000 - - - - From the Use of Money and Property 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 Charges for Services 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 Miscellaneous Revenue 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 State Shared Sales Tax 73,718,340 75,561,299 77,450,331 79,773,841 82,167,056 84,632,068 Other State Revenue 273,443,481 278,912,351 285,885,159 294,461,714 303,295,566 312,394,433 Federal Revenue 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 School Reversion/Fund Balance 8,803,897 6,800,000 4,800,000 2,800,000 800,000 -

799,803,409 813,550,544 828,837,208 846,680,625 865,106,153 884,924,732

FY 2017‐18Adopted

FY 2018‐19Forecast





Personnel Services 460,704,795 471,165,890 481,861,146 491,498,369 501,328,336 511,354,903 Fringe Benefits

FICA 35,124,805 36,044,191 36,862,378 37,599,625 38,351,618 39,118,650 VRS 72,142,284 73,878,812 75,555,828 77,066,944 78,608,283 80,180,449 Health Insurance 59,146,766 60,921,169 62,748,804 64,631,268 66,570,206 68,567,312 Life Insurance 3,303,644 6,172,273 6,312,381 6,438,629 6,567,401 6,698,749 All Other Fringe Benefits 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554

Contractual Services 49,216,858 50,201,195 51,205,219 52,229,323 53,273,910 54,339,388 Other Charges 55,629,948 56,742,547 57,877,398 59,034,946 60,215,645 61,419,958 Capital Outlay 4,541,259 4,991,259 5,441,259 5,891,259 6,341,259 6,791,259 Land, Structures and Improvement 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 Debt Service 44,947,680 41,951,320 44,583,067 44,558,369 45,429,259 45,830,953 Transfers to Other Funds

Athletics Fund 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 Categorical Grants Fund 3,313,969 3,573,608 3,833,246 3,833,246 3,833,246 3,833,246 Green Run Collegiate Fund 3,763,447 3,822,058 3,893,157 3,959,445 4,027,138 4,096,268

799,803,409 817,432,275 838,141,836 854,709,377 872,514,255 890,199,089

Forecasted Revenues

Forecasted Expenditures

VBCPS’ Baseline ForecastVBCPS’ Baseline Forecast

Projected Deficits Utilizing the revenue and expenditure assumptions from the previous slide, VBCPS is projecting the following

deficits over the forecast period.

Projected Deficits Utilizing the revenue and expenditure assumptions from the previous slide, VBCPS is projecting the following

deficits over the forecast period.

-

( 3,881,731 )

( 9,304,628 )

( 8,028,752 )( 7,408,102 )

( 5,274,357 )

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

740,000,000

760,000,000

780,000,000

800,000,000

820,000,000

840,000,000

860,000,000

880,000,000

900,000,000

FY 2017-18Adopted

FY 2018-19Forecast

FY 2019-20Forecast

FY 2020-21Forecast

FY 2021-22Forecast

FY 2022-23Forecast

Revenue Expenditures Baseline Deficit

City and Schools’ Combined Expenditures and Revenues

City and Schools’ Combined Expenditures and Revenues

City and School’s Surplus and Deficit

FY 2018‐19 Forecast FY 2019‐20 Forecast FY 2020‐21 Forecast FY 2021‐22 Forecast FY 2022‐23 ForecastCity Surplus and Deficit $ 109,118 $ (3,525,157) $ (6,597,880) $ (7,136,677) $ (10,115,989)

Schools’ Deficit $ (3,881,731) $ (9,304,628) $ (8,028,752) $ (7,408,102) $ (5,274,357)

City and School Combined Expenditures and Revenues Expenditures $ 1,971,985,569 $ 2,023,563,517 $ 2,070,810,639 $ 2,117,561,725 $ 2,167,456,192

Revenues $ 1,968,212,956 $ 2,010,733,732 $ 2,056,184,008 $ 2,103,016,945 $ 2,152,065,847 Total Combined Deficit $ (3,772,613) $ (12,829,785) $ (14,626,631) $ (14,544,779) $ (15,390,346)

*The combined City and School Expenditures and Revenues includes transfers

Closing ThoughtsClosing Thoughts

Moving towards sustainable forecasts State budget Regional Economy is Growing Recession on the horizon? New/expanded programs Tax restructuring

Moving towards sustainable forecasts State budget Regional Economy is Growing Recession on the horizon? New/expanded programs Tax restructuring

Questions?Questions?

presentation fy 2019-2023 five-year forecast 11-21-2017 · peak months since peak employment u.s....

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